Sansa’s Tourneys

If the two jousts witnessed through Ned’s point of view are a foreshadowing parallel to what will befall him several chapters later, then naturally it leads to the question whether George did something similar in Sansa’s chapter during the Hand’s Tourney and Joffrey’s nameday tourney. In that case, it would be a parallel that reflects her arc. Indeed, we can find numerous parallels and foreshadowing, some that still need to come to pass. There is so much of it, that I have split it in two articles. This article is about Westerosi news and events Sansa learns about. The foreshadowing of Sansa’s arc in the Vale is handled in part 2.

The Observer

Initially, the paralellism starts with scenes relating to the more general political story. This actually does fit many of Sansa’s point of views in King’s Landing, where she seems more an observing reporter of military and political news in Westeros. The first jousts we are told about are how well the men-at-arms of House Stark fared.

Jory, Alyn, and Harwin rode for Winterfell and the north. “Jory looks a beggar among these others,” Septa Mordane sniffed when he appeared. Sansa could only agree. Jory’s armor was blue-grey plate without device or ornament, and a thin grey cloak hung from his shoulders like a soiled rag. Yet he acquitted himself well, unhorsing Horas Redwyne in his first joust and one of the Freys in his second. In his third match, he rode three passes at a freerider named Lothor Brune whose armor was as drab as his own. Neither man lost his seat, but Brune’s lance was steadier and his blows better placed, and the king gave him the victory. Alyn and Harwin fared less well; Harwin was unhorsed in his first tilt by Ser Meryn of the Kingsguard, while Alyn fell to Ser Balon Swann. (aGoT, Sansa II)

Though Jory will be one of the first Stark men-at-arms killed and Harwin still lives as far as we know by the end of aDwD, the overall message is that the Stark men-at-arms in general will not last long. Of those that remained in King’s Landing, none survived beyond aGoT. Others die in the Riverlands, like Alyn. The men-at-arms who remained at Winterfell almost all die in aCoK, and the remainder that went with Robb died at the Red Wedding in aSoS. Only Harwin and most likely Hallis Mollen remain.

Notice Jory’s colors and description of his clothing. Like Loras’ grey mare and blue forget-me-nots cape in Ned’s Tourney chapter, we have the Stark grey and the blue of the Winterfell glass garden roses. An outright reference to Lyanna makes little sense in Sansa’s point of view. Most likely, Jory symbolizes House Stark in general. The cloak appears soiled,  the rag of a beggar. House Stark gets beggared when their seat is taken, sacked and burned. Its name gets dragged through the mud with Eddard Stark declared a traitor, Sansa an accomplice in the murder of Joffrey, Robb a sorcerer who could change into a wolf, and  Jon Snow a traitor to the Night’s Watch.

Jory could also be a stand-in for Jon Snow, as Lyanna’s son – George uses the metaphor of the blue rose in a chink of the Wall in the visions of the House of the Undying in Daenerys arc. As a bastard he is no more than a beggar, and it is extremely doubtful Eddard Stark has an empty tomb appointed for Jon Snow in the crypts like he has for the other Stark children. Jon dreams of the crypts and thinks it is not his place. The crypts are the place of the Starks of Winterfell, not the Snows of Winterfell. While Jon was never homeless, he could not claim Winterfell as his home. Bastards are also regarded as a product of sin and treacherous. His birth status alone soils him. His reputation is further soiled by having to pretend to be a deserter and finally a traitor to the Night’s Watch when he pushes to go South to confront Ramsay after the Pink Letter. One meaning does not necessarily exclude the other, so Jory can symbolize both House Stark and Jon Snow simultaneously if George wants to.

Jory jousts three knights of three different regions, and the third joust includes three rides – this is the “everything comes in threes” motif. At the very least George used it as a symbol-marker to highlight the paragraph as significant. With number three we are also reminded of the saying, “third time is the lucky charm”. But here it is reversed – Jory wins twice, but he loses the third joust though Jory is never unhorsed. Lothor gets awarded the win for style-reasons. This reversal suggests that we should look at the adversaries trying to win something from House Stark and/or Jon Snow. What does Sansa learn that other houses hope to win from House Stark? The wardenship of the North and the Stark seat of Winterfell. And what is a recurring theme in Sansa’s arc? Betrothals and marriages.

• The Tyrells intend to betroth their heir Willas Tyrell to Sansa Stark, but fail at it. Sansa herself sabotages the betrothal unwittingly when she informs her Dontos-Florian about it. Dontos passes the knowledge on to Littlefinger so it gets back to Tywin who then thwarts the Tyrells by marrying Sansa to Tyrion.
• House Frey attempts to get a Queen of the North out of it through a marriage with Robb Stark. But Robb ends up marrying Jeyne Westerling instead.

In a way, House Stark itself sabotaged the Tyrells and Freys from gaining their seat. We see this possibly reflected in Jory Cassel unhorsing a Redwyne and a Frey. House Frey is a direct obvious link, but what about Redwyne? Well, the mastermind behind the plan to betroth Sansa to Willas was Olenna Redwyne, the Queen of Thorns. In fact, Horas and Hobber Redwyne are Olenna’s twin grandsons – their mother Mina Tyrell, Olenna’s eldest daughter, married Olenna’s nephew Lord Paxter Redwyne.

With that out of the way, we now have to figure out Jory’s joust against Lothor Brune. Jory and Lothor have a go at it thrice, never harming each other, though in the end the king awards the win to Lothor. There are other attempts to acquire the North.

• The crown and the Lannisters wed Sansa to Tyrion. But Tyrion never beds her – grounds for an annullment. On top of that, Tyrion is condemned for the murder of Joffrey and Sansa his accomplice. Both are on the run, with Sansa pretending to be Littlefinger’s bastard Alayne Stone. The crown’s failed attempt to gain Winterfell in this manner sounds like a pass.
• The Boltons do get awarded the wardenship, but set-up a sham marriage to a fake Arya (Jeyne Poole) to convince the rest of the North of their claim on Winterfell. Theon helps Jeyne Poole escape, and is there anyone who believes the Boltons will remain warden for long? This claim-through-marriage attemp sounds like another pass.
• When Sansa arrives at the Vale, Lysa wishes to wed Sweetrobin to Sansa. But when she wants to murder Sansa, Littlefinger pushes Lysa out of the Moon Door. Lysa’s marriage plans for Sansa are stored away indifenitely. This is another pass.
• Littlefinger informs Sansa he arranged a betrothal for her as Alayne Stone with Harrold Hardyng, heir after Sweetrobin. She would reveal herself on her wedding day and rally the Vale to gain back the North. This is foreshadowed to fail (see part 2).

None of these four plans fail through the direct actions of that involved Stark, but by the actions of others. Only three of the four listes passes relate to Sansa (Tyrion, Lysa and Littlefinger). The same three can be tied to Lothor Brune – distant cousin of the knightly House Brune of Brownhollow in the Crownlands, in the loyal service of Petyr Baelish, and Captain of the Guards at the Eyrie after Littlefinger’s marriage to Lysa. So, Lothor symbolizes the plans by the Crown, Lysa of the Eyrie and Littlefinger.

When the king gives the win to Lothor and not Jory, does this mean that ultimately some king will grant the wardenship of the North and Winterfell to someone we do not associate with an obvious Stark? Which king? And is it meant to be seen as a permanent outcome?

King Tommen awards the wardenship and Winterfell to House Bolton, and House Bolton seems especially wary of Jon Snow as a possible rival. It is doubtful they will remain the Great Lords ruling the North. This could be the answer to “Who gets awarded Winterfell by a king?”, if the foreshadowed win is not to be regarded as permanent and Lothor fits the symbolic profile for Bolton. Lothor fights against Stannis’s forces at the Blackwater, earning himself the nickname of “Apple eater” and awarded knighthood for it by King Joffrey. So, not only does Lothor get awarded the win against Jory in the tourney, but knighthood for battle services for the king, like the Boltons are awarded Winterfell for battle services for the crown. And then there is this little jousting paragprah in Sansa’s chapter.

Ser Aron Santagar and Lothor Brune tilted thrice without result; Ser Aron fell afterward to Lord Jason Mallister, and Brune to Yohn Royce’s younger son, Robar.

Lothor loses against Yohn Royce’s younger son. Of course, Robar will not win anything anymore. Loras killed him when he lost it over Renly’s murder. But it might suggest that Yohn Royce (or his heir) will lead his bannermen and Vale allies in defense of Robb’s heir, whomever it may be. After all the Starks’ great-great-great-grandmother was a Royce.

Alternatively there is King Robb’s will. He wanted to bar Sansa from inheriting since  she was married to Tyrion, as well as legitimize Jon Snow and make him heir. Catelyn argued in favor of the distant Royce cousin of the Vale (the Jocelyn Stark descendant). Catelyn’s thoughts during the signing of the will by Robb’s trusted lords do not confirm whether Robb did in fact legitimize Jon, but they were far from positive, suggesting that Robb did got through with it. I think at least we can be certain that Robb disinherited Sansa.

Personally, I can’t imagine why Robb would choose the distant Royce cousin over Jon, but I must admit that the king choosing Lothor – who is a distant cousin of House Brune and has ties to the Vale – over Jory carrying the grey-blue colors – which ties to Jon or House Stark – might be a hint that King Robb made the distant Royce cousin his heir. And Lothor losing from Royce’s younger son might be regarded as an allusion to the distant Royce cousin. There are two Houses Royce: those of Runestone and the junior branch (of a younger Royce son) of the Gates of the Moon. Benedict Royce was a son of the Lord Royce of the junior branch, and he married Jocelyn Stark (the aunt of Lord Rickard, grandfather of the current surviving Stark generation). One could say that the “younger son” is an allusion to the “younger Royce branch”, and therefore the distant Royce cousin ends up being made the Stark heir¹.

The wars

In the paragraph following the jousts of the Stark men-at-arms, we get a clear reference to the years of war between the Great Houses that will continue until the Long Night and that will pound Westeros into a wasteland and tear it assunder. And while it frightens Jeyne Poole, Sansa will keep her composure and behave as a great lady, because she is made of sterner stuff. And indeed during the Battle of the Blackwater, Sansa acts like a rock to all those women hiding in the Red Keep, like a great lady, like a queen. Septa Mordane would have approved.

The jousting went all day and into the dusk, the hooves of the great warhorses pounding down the lists until the field was a ragged wasteland of torn earth. A dozen times Jeyne and Sansa cried out in unison as riders crashed together, lances exploding into splinters while the commons screamed for their favorites. Jeyne covered her eyes whenever a man fell, like a frightened little girl, but Sansa was made of sterner stuff. A great lady knew how to behave at tournaments. Even Septa Mordane noted her composure and nodded in approval.

I already mentioned Lothor falling to Yohn Royce’s younger son. But Lothor’s prior opponent, Santagar, falls against Jason Mallister. Santagar is the master-at-arms of the Red Keep. Jason Mallister is a loyal bannerman of the Stark-Tully alliance in the Riverlands. He fought in the rebellion against Aerys. He squashed part of Balon’s rebellion at Seagard and he rides with Robb against Jaime’s siege at Riverrun. In other words, the crown’s forces falls to devout bannermen of House Stark in the Riverlands. Jason Mallister and his heir join Robb in the Battle of the Whispering Wood as well as breaking the Lannister siege on Riverrun, where Jaime Lannister is caught.

The chapter also foreshadows what will befall Renly and the Baratheon bloodline in general, when the Hound unseats Renly in a joust.

Ser Balon Swann also fell to Gregor, and Lord Renly to the Hound. Renly was unhorsed so violently that he seemed to fly backward off his charger, legs in the air. His head hit the ground with an audible crack that made the crowd gasp, but it was just the golden antler on his helm. One of the tines had snapped off beneath him. When Lord Renly climbed to his feet, the commons cheered wildly, for King Robert’s handsome young brother was a great favorite. He handed the broken tine to his conqueror with a gracious bow. The Hound snorted and tossed the broken antler into the crowd, where the commons began to punch and claw over the little bit of gold, until Lord Renly walked out among them and restored the peace.

In aCoK, Renly Baratheon makes his own bid for the throne, but Melisandre’s shadowbaby takes him violently out of the game for Stannis. Of particular interest in this paragraph is the broken tine of his golden antler on the helm. A tine of an antler is comparable to a branch of a tree. The antlers are a symbol of House Baratheon, and a “branch” and “tree” are concepts we use in association with a bloodline. So, the snapping of an antler tine is a visual symbol of the end of a branch of the Baratheon bloodline, and not just Robert’s and Renly’s death, but also Stannis and Shireen, while Cersei’s children have been prophesied to also die, one after the other.

The tine gets tossed into the crowd, into the commons. This seems to allude to the survival of the Baratheon bloodline through Robert’s surviving bastards – most likely Edric Storm who fled to Lys after Davos helped to smuggle him out of Storm’s End to prevent Melisandre from sacrificing him, or Gendry who guards the make-shift orphanage at the Crossroads Inn in the Riverlands for the Brotherhood Without Banners. Edric is said to be the image of his father and is the sole acknowledged bastard (his mother was highborn). Since Renly looks so much like young Robert, Edric would thus also look like Renly when he comes of age, except for his Florent ears. If a bastard was to be legitimized, then Edric Storm seems the likeliest candidate for it. As for Gendry – when Brienne arrives at the Crossroads Inn and first meets Gendry, she thinks she sees Renly’s ghost. As a guardian at the make-shift orphanage, his connection to the Brotherhood Without Banners, his knighthood by Beric and his cooperation with Lady Stoneheart, he may emerge from the Riverlands as a restoration figure, of peace, of law and order. Personally, I doubt he will ever acquire the Baratheon name, Storm’s End, let alone kingship, but after the wars and the devestation of the Others, he might earn himself a legitimization to start his own House for some heroic feat.

Later a hedge knight in a checkered cloak disgraced himself by killing Beric Dondarrion’s horse, and was declared forfeit. Lord Beric shifted his saddle to a new mount, only to be knocked right off it by Thoros of Myr.

This scene certainly alludes to the Brotherhood Without Banners – the disgraceful trap set-up by Gregor Clegane at the Ruby Ford to capture and/or kill Ned Stark. Since Ned was unable to ride with a broken leg, he sent Beric instead to arrest Gregor Clegane. Sansa is a witness to this decision in the Throne Room and later discusses it with Jeyne Poole. The outcome of Ned’s decision is that Ser Beric gets mortally wounded, then resurrected, but finally Thoros’ refusal to resurrect Catelyn Tully ends Beric’s life. Many men, including Beric ask Thoros to do the same to Catelyn as he has done for Beric seven times. Thoros thinks it madness to resurrect a woman who has been floating dead for three days in a river (many readers agree with Thoros) and refuses. But Beric wants her to live, and passes his breath of fire life onto her. Beric dies and Lady Stoneheart becomes the new leader of the Brotherhood Without Banners.

I would like to bring up the paragraph of the joust between Aron Santagar and Lothor again.

Ser Aron Santagar and Lothor Brune tilted thrice without result; Ser Aron fell afterward to Lord Jason Mallister, and Brune to Yohn Royce’s younger son, Robar.

We get a repeat of “things come in threes” between Aron Santagar and Lothor. This time, however, the king declares no winner. This is odd. With the joust between Jory and Lothor there are three passes and no winner. The king decides on it. But when the same thing happens between Santagar and Lothor both of them can continue to joust and the king decides nothing. Could this possibly be because symbolically the king is unaware of the plans against the crown? Aron Santagar is master at arms of the Red Keep, but most importantly here, he is Dornish. The first chapter introducing Prince Doran to us shows us three blood oranges splashing from the trees into pulp on the floor, which suggests that his plans are overripe, that they will come to nothing and a rather bloody end. Doran has several secret plans to have his revenge on the Lannisters. Littlefinger has secret plans for himself. And Cersei too makes plans to take out Dorne from the game. But what if these plans all fail without the opponent or crown even learning of them?  It then becomes impossible to decide on a winner, and both factions remain in the game.

Tommen’s Time

The Hand’s Tourney is not the sole tourney we witness through Sansa’s eyes. There is also Joffrey’s Nameday Tourney early on in aCoK. It is but a meagre tourney. The gallery is not as splendid. The spectators are but a few. And the jousters are nothing but ‘gnats’. It thus projects a Westeros of lean and meagre times, depopulated and lesser lords and freeriders fighting over the pickings. This is a beggared realm going hungry and many dead.

The carpenters had erected a gallery and lists in the outer bailey. It was a poor thing indeed, and the meager throng that had gathered to watch filled but half the seats. Most of the spectators were guardsmen in the gold cloaks of the City Watch or the crimson of House Lannister; of lords and ladies there were but a paltry few, the handful that remained at court. (aCoK, Sansa I)

Another significant point made regarding this Tourney is that Joffrey will not ride in it, nor will the Hound. In other words, the metaphors and parallels we witness in the jousts belong to a post-Joffrey period. Neither the Hound, nor Joffrey are part of the Westeros scene anymore. We thus get a foreshadowing for the books during King Tommen’s reign, and many of Joffrey’s hoots and expressions could be seen as if he is commenting on what goes on in Westeros as a ghost of the afterlife.

“Will you enter the lists today?” she asked quickly.
The king frowned. “My lady mother said it was not fitting, since the tourney is in my honor. Otherwise I would have been champion. Isn’t that so, dog?”
The Hound’s mouth twitched. “Against this lot? Why not?”
He had been the champion in her father’s tourney, Sansa remembered. “Will you joust today, my lord?” she asked him.
Clegane’s voice was thick with contempt. “Wouldn’t be worth the bother of arming myself. This is a tournament of gnats.”

King Tommen’s reign is a time where Cersei engages in a power struggle with the Tyrells. Earlier on I already established that kingsguards in the jousts can be stand-ins for the Crown, while the Redwyne twins are in fact Olenna’s grandchildren as much as Loras and Margaery are. The Redwyne twins therefore can be stand-ins for Olenna or her Tyrell grandchildren. And, the first joust on Joffrey’s nameday is between Meryn Trant and Hobber Redwyne.

Ser Meryn entered from the west side of the yard, clad in gleaming white plate chased with gold and mounted on a milk-white charger with a flowing grey mane. His cloak streamed behind him like a field of snow. He carried a twelve-foot lance.
“Ser Hobber of House Redwyne, of the Arbor,” the herald sang. Ser Hobber trotted in from the east, riding a black stallion caparisoned in burgundy and blue. His lance was striped in the same colors, and his shield bore the grape cluster sigil of his House. The Redwyne twins were the queen’s unwilling guests, even as Sansa was. She wondered whose notion it had been for them to ride in Joffrey’s tourney. Not their own, she thought.

Meryn is the merciless kingsguard, the one whose eyes are dead. He portrays Cersei’s cruelty. Whereas Hobber Redwyne is an unwilling guest, a hostage, a captive. Margaery and her cousins as well as Hobber end up being accused of a sexual scandal by Cersei via the High Sparrow of the Faith. Margaery, her cousins and friends (children and young men) all end up in the dungeons. By using the High Sparrow, Cersei pretends to be innocent of framing them. Meanwhile the reputation of Tommen’s queen and her cousins is tarnished, blackened. Yes, the Tyrells look out for themselves, lobbying for posts on the small council. But that is not an abnormal tugging at the power blanket. It is not meant to be a coup. Cersei’s scheme to alienate the Tyrells is something she pushes on the Tyrells. She forces the Tyrells into political opposition, which was not a notion that originated from them.

At a signal from the master of revels, the combatants couched their lances and put their spurs to their mounts. There were shouts from the watching guardsmen and the lords and ladies in the gallery. The knights came together in the center of the yard with a great shock of wood and steel. The white lance and the striped one exploded in splinters within a second of each other. Hobber Redwyne reeled at the impact, yet somehow managed to keep his seat. Wheeling their horses about at the far end of the lists, the knights tossed down their broken lances and accepted replacements from the squires. Ser Horas Redwyne, Ser Hobber’s twin, shouted encouragement to his brother.

So, within the Red Keep’s walls the Lannister-Tyrell alliance explodes, is splintered. Cersei’s scheme, the arrest of both queens by the High Sparrow, and the scandal are shocking. Queen Margaery’s hold on her position is reeling, but she will manage to keep her seat the first round at least. Queen Cersei herself gets into difficulty and is forced to do a Walk of Shame. All sorts of people are replaced on the council. Kevan becomes regent. Mace Tyrell becomes the Hand.

But on their second pass Ser Meryn swung the point of his lance to strike Ser Hobber in the chest, driving him from the saddle to crash resoundingly to the earth. Ser Horas cursed and ran out to help his battered brother from the field.

Cersei however will manage to strike a second blow to the Tyrells, right in the heart of the family, their power and unseat them. Margaery is much loved by Olenna. Cersei will win her trial and be proclaimed milky-white innocent of the charges against her, while Margaery will lose her trial. The Tyrells lose their grip on the throne. They will gain military support though to get as many brothers and sisters out of King’s Landing.

The next joust is between Balon Swann and Morros Slynt. During the joust, Balon Swann is not yet Kingsguard but merely a knight of the Stormlands who remained in King’s Landing after the Hand’s Tourney. House Swann fights on both sides of the war  – Balon Swann becomes kingsguard, but his brother Donnel Swann fights for Stannis at the Battle of the Blackwater. Meanwhile Ravella Swann aids the Brotherhood without Banners in the Riverlands, for she is Lady Smallwood of Acorn Hall. Lord Gulian Swann himself takes no part in the wars, though he is one of the few lords who receives Davos Seaworth (speaking for Stannis) and extends him guest right. Stonehelm is a castle in the Stormlands that lies in the outskirts of the Dornish Marches, called the Red Watch.

“Ser Balon Swann, of Stonehelm in the Red Watch,” came the herald’s cry. Wide white wings ornamented Ser Balon’s greathelm, and black and white swans fought on his shield.

With the members of House Swann covering and backing several military factions all at once, but the Lord himself refusing to take part and choose a side, as well as a Watch reference, clearly Ser Balon Swann must be a stand-in for the Night’s Watch and Jon Snow in particular. Even the sigil of House Swann expresses neutrality in its own way – a black and white swan opposing each other, over a white and black field respectively. Jon writes a paper-shield letter to Cersei to affirm the neutrality of the Night’s Watch, even though he guested Stannis at Castle Black.

Balon is also one of the few knights of the Kingsguard portrayed who may have his personal opinions (such as joking that four glasses are needed when asked to raise a glass “to the health of the King”), but remains honorable. He is one of the few honest witnesses during Tyrion’s trial – he recounts seeing Tyrion slapping Joffrey after the riot they barely escaped, but praises Tyrion for his courage and says he does not believe Tyrion killed Joffrey. Balon is an honorable man who keeps to his vows, without compromising his ideals or personal opinions. He is somewhat the Jon Snow of the Kingsguard.

“Morros of House Slynt, heir to Lord Janos of Harrenhal.”
“Look at that upjumped oaf,” Joff hooted, loud enough for half the yard to hear. Morros, a mere squire and a new-made squire at that, was having difficulty managing lance and shield. The lance was a knight’s weapon, Sansa knew, the Slynts lowborn. Lord Janos had been no more than commander of the City Watch before Joffrey had raised him to Harrenhal and the council.
I hope he falls and shames himself, she thought bitterly. I hope Ser Balon kills him. When Joffrey proclaimed her father’s death, it had been Janos Slynt who seized Lord Eddard’s severed head by the hair and raised it on high for king and crowd to behold, while Sansa wept and screamed.
Morros wore a checkered black-and-gold cloak over black armor inlaid with golden scrollwork. On his shield was the bloody spear his father had chosen as the sigil of their new-made house.

Clearly Morros Slynt is the stand-in for Janos Slynt – an upjumped commoner, new-made Lord over the biggest castle of Westeros, Harrenhal, with the manners of an oaf. Initially Slynt is a gold-cloak, but ends up being ordered to take the black by Tyrion, after he commits the shameful act of killing baby Barra. Though Janos Slynt takes the black, he remains a gold-cloak at heart, ever loyal to the golden faction in the realm – the Lannisters, Cersei in particular. Hence, we see a black-and-gold checkered cloak over the black armor of a man of the Night’s Watch. The golden scrollwork of the armor refers to writing. And Slynt writes a treacherous letter to Cersei informing her about what happens at the Wall under Jon Snow’s command. This is significant, because in order to send a message by raven without the Lord Commander knowing it, Slynt requires other traitors within the Watch to help him.

But he did not seem to know what to do with the shield as he urged his horse forward, and Ser Balon’s point struck the blazon square. Morros dropped his lance, fought for balance, and lost. One foot caught in a stirrup as he fell, and the runaway charger dragged the youth to the end of the lists, head bouncing against the ground. Joff hooted derision. Sansa was appalled, wondering if the gods had heard her vengeful prayer. But when they disentangled Morros Slynt from his horse, they found him bloodied but alive. 

Indeed the gods have heard Sansa’s vengeful prayer. Janos has to “drop his lance” (his sigil of a bloody spear), take the black, fights to become Lord Commander, but is toppled by Sam’s efforts and loses the elections of Lord Commander to Jon Snow. His direct refusal to do as the new Lord Commander tells him is the reason why Jon Snow lops off his head, which we can imagine to have bounced against the ground.

“Tommen, we picked the wrong foe for you,” the king told his brother. “The straw knight jousts better than that one.”

Joffrey speaks prophetic words here – we picked the wrong foe. It is hardly Tommen who rules as king, but his mother Cersei, and she seeks to make pretty much every lord her enemy, while the real foe is the threat that the Others pose to the realm. The straw knight is a reference to Stannis, since he carries antlers and during Tommen’s reign Renly is already long dead. It is Stannis who is the sole self-proclaimed king who comes to the aid of the Wall against the wildlings and recognizes the threat of the Others.

“Next came Ser Horas Redwyne’s turn. He fared better than his twin, vanquishing an elderly knight whose mount was bedecked with silver griffins against a striped blue-and-white field. Splendid as he looked, the old man made a poor contest of it. Joffrey curled his lip. “This is a feeble show.”
“I warned you,” said the Hound. “Gnats.”

And then we get a foreshadowing of the Tyrells versus none other than Jon Connington, and older knight who looks splendid and his sigil sports griffins of House Connington of Griffin’s roost. He used to be red-haired, but is now greying, so he may be regarded as a “silver griffin”. When he pretended to be Aegon’s father at the Rhoyne he went by the name “griff” and had his hair dyed blue. The silver griffin is also a reference to Jon Connington’s loyalty to Aegon Targaryen – his hair is silver, a Valyrian trait. So, either this foreshadows a direct military confrontation between the Tyrells and Jon Connington, or it is more a political disagreement.

It is noteworthy that George uses the word ‘turn’ in relation to the Redwynes. It might suggest that the Tyrells and Redwynes make a political ‘turn’. That would not be much of a surprise, if Margaery is set aside and Cersei drives off the Tyrells from power. The Tyrells may very well propose Aegon they will back him if he takes Margaery as his queen. For the moment Aegon has favored Jon Connington’s advice, but also shows being influenced by the younger generation. After landing in the Stormlands, Aegon has become less biddable. With all the references to Jon Connington being an elderly knight, the greying and so on, it might refer to a choice by Aegon in favor of a Tyrell proposal that Jon Connington heartily disagrees with. For example, he wishes to keep Aegon unbetrothed and unmarried, in case Daenerys decides to come to Westeros, as well as keep positions open in Aegon’s kingsguard. Jon Connington may have learned a thing or two of Tywin’s ruthlesness in battle, but does he have Olenna’s cunning?

The joust that follows is that of Lothor versus Dontos, a joust that never takes place. In fact the tourney ends with it. Still I will discuss the paragraphs concerning it.

“Lothor Brune, freerider in the service of Lord Baelish,” cried the herald. “Ser Dontos the Red, of House Hollard.”
The freerider, a small man in dented plate without device, duly appeared at the west end of the yard, but of his opponent there was no sign. Finally a chestnut stallion trotted into view in a swirl of crimson and scarlet silks, but Ser Dontos was not on it. The knight appeared a moment later, cursing and staggering, clad in breastplate and plumed helm and nothing else. His legs were pale and skinny, and his manhood flopped about obscenely as he chased after his horse. The watchers roared and shouted insults. Catching his horse by the bridle, Ser Dontos tried to mount, but the animal would not stand still and the knight was so drunk that his bare foot kept missing the stirrup.

Could that stallion be any more red? Chestnut, crimson and scarlet silks. Dontos himself is called ‘the red’. Red stallions end up riderless, but usually we see the character mounted on the red stallion for at least some time, before they get knocked off. Dontos never even manages to mount it. Dontos’ red stallion was riderless from the start. It is as if George is signaling in huge neon letters – Sansa don’t bet on this one. And to us readers, George is basically shouting, “he’s deader than dead”.

Here, Lothor is definitely tied to Petyr Baelish, certainly of course in combination with Dontos. And with the mention that there is no sign of an opponent, George is telling us that for a long while, Littlefinger is the master at the game of thrones.

While the tourney has ended, Tommen demands his chance to ride against the “straw man”. The straw man is George’s most direct hint that when he describes riders and horses, especially in a joust, that they are stand-ins to tell the reader to consider the symbolical meaning of that rider or horse onto the greater narrative.

They set up the quintain at the far end of the lists while the prince’s pony was being saddled. Tommen’s opponent was a child-sized leather warrior stuffed with straw and mounted on a pivot, with a shield in one hand and a padded mace in the other. Someone had fastened a pair of antlers to the knight’s head. Joffrey’s father King Robert had worn antlers on his helm, Sansa remembered . . . but so did his uncle Lord Renly, Robert’s brother, who had turned traitor and crowned himself king.

George uses a misdirection here, however, for the stand-in. He has Sansa think of Robert, who is dead, and Renly, who is also dead when Tommen is king. Stannis Baratheon may not wear antlers on his helm, but his sigil still preserves the stag with antlers. Alternatively the straw man may represent one of Robert’s bastards who looks like Robert and Renly and is not yet a man, such as Edric Storm or Gendry. Meanwhile Tommen is himself, the child-king.

A pair of squires buckled the prince into his ornate silver-and-crimson armor. A tall plume of red feathers sprouted from the crest of his helm, and the lion of Lannister and crowned stag of Baratheon frolicked together on his shield. The squires helped him mount, and Ser Aron Santagar, the Red Keep’s master-at-arms, stepped forward and handed Tommen a blunted silver longsword with a leaf-shaped blade, crafted to fit an eight-year-old hand.
Tommen raised the blade high. “Casterly Rock!” he shouted in a high boyish voice as he put his heels into his pony and started across the hard-packed dirt at the quintain. Lady Tanda and Lord Gyles started a ragged cheer, and Sansa added her voice to theirs. The king brooded in silence.
Tommen got his pony up to a brisk trot, waved his sword vigorously, and struck the knight’s shield a solid blow as he went by. The quintain spun, the padded mace flying around to give the prince a mighty whack in the back of his head. Tommen spilled from the saddle, his new armor rattling like a bag of old pots as he hit the ground. His sword went flying, his pony cantered away across the bailey, and a great gale of derision went up. King Joffrey laughed longest and loudest of all.
“Oh,” Princess Myrcella cried. She scrambled out of the box and ran to her little brother.

Poor King Tommen is as harmless as they come. Brave, sweet and vigorous, but a ‘gnat’ who can do no more than strike a shield without doing anyone damage. What else is the crown’s victory over Dragonstone, but symbolical. Stannis has long abandoned it to go North. By taking it, the crown took a heavy loss for little to no gain at all.

Meanwhile his opponent is agile and basically irremovable. The Pink Letter carries the news that King Stannis is dead. The news of Stannis being dead will certainly spread to King’s Landing, regardless who authored it. How can you strike a man you believe to be dead? You can’t. And without the crown noticing it, the supposed dead man can whack Tommen in the back of his head, by taking out the Boltons for example. The same idea applies for Lady Stoneheart and the Brotherhood without Banners who harbor Robert’s bastard Gendry, by taking out the Frey and Lannister forces in the Riverlands. What happens if Gendry’s identity is passed on to the High Sparrow? What happens if Tommen loses the North to Stannis, the Riverlands to the Stark-Tully faction, the Stormlands and the Reach or Dorne to Aegon? Tommen would stand all alone, an island surrounded by enemies, with only Casterly Rock as a safe haven. No, Tommen’s enemies do not all carry antlers, but at heart, the straw man can be anybody. Fundamentally, he is anonymous, an unknown – “dead” Stannis, “dead” Catelyn, missing Blackfish, dismissed Daenerys.

“Look,” the Hound interrupted. “The boy has courage. He’s going to try again.”
They were helping Prince Tommen mount his pony. If only Tommen were the elder instead of Joffrey, Sansa thought. I wouldn’t mind marrying Tommen.
The sounds from the gatehouse took them by surprise. Chains rattled as the portcullis was drawn upward, and the great gates opened to the creak of iron hinges. “Who told them to open the gate?” Joff demanded. With the troubles in the city, the gates of the Red Keep had been closed for days.

Tommen loses the throne with a clangor, his sword flying. Myrcella attempts to join him. But Cersei’s children will not give up that easily. Tommen’s cry for Casterly Rock suggest that Cersei and her children flee King’s Landing and decamp for Casterly Rock. With the last support of the Westerlands, there will be an attempt in getting either Tommen or Myrcella on the throne. But before long, another player arrives in Westeros and the closed gates of Casterly Rock.

A column of riders emerged from beneath the portcullis with a clink of steel and a clatter of hooves. Clegane stepped close to the king, one hand on the hilt of his longsword. The visitors were dinted and haggard and dusty, yet the standard they carried was the lion of Lannister, golden on its crimson field. A few wore the red cloaks and mail of Lannister men-at-arms, but more were freeriders and sellswords, armored in oddments and bristling with sharp steel . . . and there were others, monstrous savages out of one of Old Nan’s tales, the scary ones Bran used to love. They were clad in shabby skins and boiled leather, with long hair and fierce beards. Some wore bloodstained bandages over their brows or wrapped around their hands, and others were missing eyes, ears, and fingers.
In their midst, riding on a tall red horse in a strange high saddle that cradled him back and front, was the queen’s dwarf brother Tyrion Lannister, the one they called the Imp.

Tyrion will appear at Casterly Rock with an army, carrying the Lannister standard. But are they truly Lannister men, or is it just a false standard to gain admittance into Casterly Rock with an army. The red horse would be the tip-off that Tyrion is the wrong horse to bet on to save the city and the throne for the Lannisters. His army contains freeriders and sellswords from Essos, and savages in leather with long hair and beards. In aCoK at the time of Joffrey’s reign those savages are the mountain clans. But the description would just as well fit the Dothraki. If Tyrion remains with Daenerys, it looks like Tyrion tries to acquire Casterly Rock in a similar manner as Tywin once gained entrance into King’s Landing. Tywin won King’s Landing for Robert because Aerys believed that Tywin came to his aid and opened the gates to him. And oh, the irony of Casterly Rock being sacked by Tyrion using Tywin’s tactics.

Conclusion (tl;tr)

Sansa’s tourney chapters tell us a great deal about upcoming events after aGoT and aCoK. From the Hand’s Tourney we learn the following:

• House Stark: most of the men-at-arms will die; the Starks will be beggared, without a home and their reputation soiled. Several Houses try to acquire the seat of the North and Winterfell with betrothals to a Stark: the Tyrells, the Freys and Boltons, the Lannisters, Lysa, Littlefinger. It appears that someone in the Vale will be awarded Winterfell by the ruler on the Iron Throne or through Robb’s will – either the mysterious distant Royce cousin or it may be Sansa. Alternatively it alludes to the Boltons being awarded Winterfell by the crown, to lose it, and either the distant cousin of the junior Royce branch or Yohn Royce rallying military support for the Starks. (Status: partially fulfilled)
• Wars will rage across Westeros between Great Houses well into dusk, before the Long Night brings the Others, turning Westeros into a wasteland. Sansa will survive them all, composed, as a great lady made of stern stuff. (Status: partially fulfilled)
• Baratheons: a family branch will snap off and will have to bow out, however the Baratheon bloodline survives through the common bastards, and one of those bastards looking like Renly will restore peace amongst the common people. (Status: partially fulfilled)
• Brotherhood without Banners: Beric is killed, resurrected again, but Thoros’ refusal to resurrect Lady Stoneheart means the end for Beric. (Status: fulfilled)

From Joffrey’s nameday tourney we learn the following about political development during King Tommen’s reign:

• Meager and poor times for the people and the crown (Status: fulfilled)
• Wars and power struggles between gnats (lesser houses) (Status: fulfilled)
• Cersei‘s attempt to unseat Margaery as queen, imprison her and alienate the Tyrells. Cersei will be able to strike the Tyrells in the heart of power. The Tyrells will lose the power struggle with Cersei. (Status: partially fulfilled)
• Sansa’s vengeful wish for Janos Slynt will be granted. Janos will be forced to take the black, but remains faithful to Cersei. He will try to gain power with the Watch, but fails and his head will bounce against the ground. He will stay in communication with Cersei while alive. (Status: fulfilled)
• Stannis will fight the real foe – wildlings and Others (Status: partially fulfilled)
• The Tyrells will win against Jon Connington. Either Jon Connington (and Aegon) loses against the Tyrells in battle, or Aegon accepts a deal with the Tyrells that Jon Connington argues against. (Status: unfulfilled)
• Dontos is the wrong horse Sansa bets on and will die. He never even gets to mount his red stallion. (Status: fulfilled)
• Littlefinger will stand unopposed. (Status: nearly fulfilled)
• King Tommen will strike a symbolical blow against Stannis (taking Dragonstone), but will be hit surprisingly from behind and unaware. He will lose the throne and has to decamp for Casterly Rock. Myrcella joins him. An attempt with help will be made to get one of Cersei’s children back on the throne. (Status: except for the first part, unfulfilled)
• Tyrion will arrive appearing as a saviour for the Lannisters (on a red stallion), with an army of sellswords, freeriders and barbarian Dothraki in order to have the gates opened. He will use the same trick Tywin used with Aerys and win Casterly Rock in this manner. (Status: unfulfilled)

I left out major scenes out of the Hand’s Tourney from Sansa’s chapter as they all pertain to her Vale arc. The analysis and interpretation of what they foreshadow will be covered in the Trail of the Red Stallion III. I also left out the paragraph regarding Jaime Lanniser. He will get his own Red Stallion essay.

Notes

1. Benedict Royce had three daughters with Jocelyn Stark, so the distant Royce cousin of the junior branch would likely not be called a Royce. One daughter married a Waynwood, another a Corbray,  and the third possibly a Templeton. Benedict Royce’s father, Raymar Royce, was Lord of the junior branch in the middle of the third century AC. Jocelyn Stark was Rickard Stark’s aunt. Basedon rough estimates when male Starks seem to marry (between 18-22) and Brandon Stark’s birth in 262 AC, Lord Rickard Stark was born somewhere between 233-242 AC, while his aunt Jocelyn then would have been born between 212-228 AC. Stark women seem to marry around the age of 16-18.  So, Jocelyne would have married Benedict Royce between 228-246 AC. Their eldest daughter  married an unknown Waynwood. If she still lived that eldest daughter would be no older than roughly 71 at present, and Benedict’s eldest Waynwood grandchild would be no older than mid fifties. This fits the description of Lady Anya Waynwood who is old enough to have a grown grandchild already.