(Featured Picture: Alyn Velaryon’s fleet by Franvegesart)
In Strange Sails, I pointed out how Aurane’s stolen dromonds and location at the Stepstones coincide quite conveniently with the expected arrival of Jon Connington, Aegon and the Golden Company at the Narrow Sea to begin their invasion of Westeros.
In Aurane’s Part 1 – The Set Up, I propose how and when Varys managed to recruit Aurane, after his capture in aCoK, but before bending the knee to Joffrey. I lay out the literary devices that George uses that support this scenario as well as delve into House Velaryon’s history, especially during and after the Dance to point out the motivation of a bastard of Driftmark is tied to loyalty to the blood of the Dragon. I also show that while Cersei may have picked Aurane for her council through impulsive decisions, Taena Merryweather’s manipulations helped her towards these decisions, and Varys would have known all along that Cersei would develop a crush on Aurane, because of her youthful limerance for Rhaegar Targaryen.
In this essay, I will analyse Aurane’s actions, choices and involvement tied to building those dromonds, once the small council agreed to build them. It covers the speed at which Aurane has them built and manned. At the very least it shows that George RR Martin has Aurane working day and night towards a deadline – the landing of the Golden Company.
Index
- George’s Switcheroos
- Building and Manning a Fleet
- Aurane the Wakeful
- Launching the Ten
- Not a Tyrell Agent
- Conclusion (tl:tr)
George’s Switcheroos
Before we get to into the details and rate at which Aurane has the fleet built, I wish to give you a perspective how George RR Martin juggled several fleet movements all at once in aFfC and aDwD.
Stannis’ fleet is non existent anymore. After the Battle of the Blackwater, most of the royal fleet has been reduced to rubble. Only Sallador’s fleet remained intact. Stannis and Salla sailed with it to Eastwatch to come to the Wall’s rescue. After aSoS, Salladhor Saan sailed from Eastwatch with Davos on board long enough before Cersei’s small council to give Davos enough time to row to Sweetsister at the Fingers of the Vale, meet with Lord Godric Borrell of Breakwater, sail back north into the Bite and end up as Lord Manderly’s captive. By Cersei’s small council, she received a letter from Lord Manderly about Davos showing up at his castle. Meanwhile, Salladhor’s fleet of twenty nine ships that set sail from Eastwatch are mostly lost to Storms in the Bite. He limps with the remainder supposedly to the Stepstones. Since he had Davos row by himself to Sweetsister, and before the two men respected one another, it is also clear that at this point Salla wants nothing to do with Stannis ever again. Stannis cannot commandeer the Night’s Watch fleet at Eastwatch either, since it sails to Hardhome where it is met with some disaster and remains stuck. That only leaves Lord Manderly’s secret fleet. Like the gun hanging on the wall, it certainly will come into play at some point, perhaps even under Davos’ command. But it is kept aside during Aegon’s invasion.
With less than a dozen warships left in King’s Landing, King Tommen – but in reality Cersei Lannister at the helm- only has one fleet they can rely on: the Redwyne fleet of the Reach. With two hundred war ships it is the largest fleet of Westeros. And in aFfC, George has it sail from the Arbor to King’s Landing so that Cersei can attempt to regain control of the Blackwater Bay, Dragonstone and Storm’s End. But by the end of aFfC, after the “capture” of Dragonstone, it begins its slow return to the Reach, out of the Narrow Sea, along the Stepstones. Since Aurane sails off with the new dromonds, the Iron Throne is left without maritime support and the Narrow Sea is entirely clear for naval invasion by the end of aFfC or about halfway through aDwD, which coincides with Jon Connington’s invasion and the later reports of strange sails.
The last of the main three fleets, the Iron fleet, is still intact at the start of aFfC, but at the wrong side of Westeros, namely the West. With Euron Greyjoy as newly elected king, this fleet alters from Balon’s tactics. Instead of raiding stony shores or attempt to retain castles, forts and fastholds in the North, the Ironborn take the Shield Islands and attack the Reach. This is the author’s legitimate plot to lure the Redwyne fleet out of the Narrow Sea and leave King Tommen and King’s Landing, a port, defenseless from the sea at the start of Aegon’s invasion.
After the Iron fleet has been succesful in setting up base on the Shield Islands to raid the Reach and lure the Redwyne fleet away from the Blackwater Bay and Stormlands, George allows for an interesting development. Euron sends Victarion off with the Iron Fleet to Meereen to fetch the dragon queen. By the time that Aegon is being reported to capturing islands left and right all over the Narrow Sea, including Tarth, the Iron Fleet is effectively halfway the other side of the known world. It is important to make a distinction between the Iron fleet under Victarion’s command and the ironborn ships harrying the Reach. The ironborn fleet exists of the Iron Fleet (initially a hundred longships) and additional private, but smaller ironborn ships. While Euron’s Silence is a formidable galley, the other ironborn ships at the Reach are no match against the coming Redwyne fleet. The main reason the ironborn are so succesful in attacking various locations along the Mander and the seas between Oldtown all the way to Dorne is the fact that the Reach was left majorly defenseless. But George already puts the ironborn “privateer” attempts in perspective through Samwell’s POV – the Cinnamon Wind, a swan ship, outruns two of the three ironborn longships and repels the third with its archers. This means that the pirates, Salladhor and Aurane’s ships at the Stepstones are enough to prevent the privateer ironborn galleys from entering the Narrow Sea or meddle with naval tactics against King Tommen.
Another interesting switcheroo that George accomplishes relates to Victarion’s journey. Victarion sails the commercial and heavily trafficked shores of the Disputed Lands to Volantis, at the same time the Volantenese fleet sails in the other direction towards the Stepstones to deliver the Golden Company at the shores of the Narrow Sea on the Stepstones and Stormlands. We know they must have crossed each other, because of the timing of the elections in Volantis. Victarion takes in provisions for one day in Volantis. By then a drunken Volantis celebrates the results of the elections. This would have been the eleventh day after the elections started (it lasts ten days) and he left Volantis on the twelfth, not stomaching more than one day of reports about plans for the Volantenese fleet to attack Meereen and kill the dragon queen. But when Tyrion and Jorah consulted with the widow of the waterfront about passage to Meereen, the morning after the third day of the Triarch elections in Volantis, half of the Volantene ships raced to Volon Therys to sail the Golden Company to Westeros. The Selaesory Qhoran, on which Tyrion and Jorah sailed, departed from Volantis for Qarth two days after the meeting with the widow of the waterfront, or the sixth day of the elections. And thus Vic’s squadron of the Iron Fleet arrived in Volantis five days after Tyrion and Moqorro left, and a week after half of the Volantene ships sailed for Volon Therys to pick up the Golden Company. Certainly Victarion is thus fooled in believing the Volantenese fleet is at Volantis in its entirety when he makes his pit stop there.*
*This gives the Iron Fleet at least several weeks before the Volantenese fleet arrives at Meereen, or even the opportunity to attack them in open sea en route to Volantis, with the help of Moqorro’s flame watching.
But how did Victarion not come across the Volantenese ships that sailed west to fetch and deliver the Golden Company before arriving at Volantis? This question is important, since Victarion has tried to add to the Iron Fleet by capturing whichever ship they came across since leaving the Shield Islands. The journey’s map of the Lands of Ice and Fire gives us a clue.
Victarion’s journey are the red colored arrows, whereas Jon Connington’s are the purple ones. The Volantene fleet takes a different route than Vic’s. No matter how fast we may imagine either of these fleets to have sailed, those routes cross only in two points: the Stepstones and halfway between Lys and the Orange Shore. The two fleet only share a route close to Volantis, less than five days away. Since, the timing of either reaching the Stepstones is too disparate, we can rule that point out. That leaves only the point between Lys and the Orange Shore where they could have theoretically met, increasing the chances for both fleet to be unaware of one another. Notice how the Volantenese sailed close to the Orange Shore, along the islands, while Victarion’s Iron fleet sailed south of those. Alternatively, Victarion sailed north of Lys, while Jon Connington passed south of Lys. Either of these two differing routes before or after the potential point of crossing is sufficient to explain why Victarion never saw the Volantenese ships carrying the Golden Company, as he sailed for Volantis.
Lastly, I will also point out that Vic’s Iron Fleet has dwindled down to less than half of its original numbers by the time he reaches the Isle of Cedars. Though he manages to raise it back to sixty-one, the additional ships are merchants and fishing boats, not warships. Though he might still manage to pad the fleet with the Volantenese warships coming for Meereen (and learn about Aegon and the Golden Company from them).
This shows certainly authorial intent to weaken the Baratheon-Lannister dynasty’s maritime power in the Narrow Sea, while setting up various war fleet support for the remaining three Targaryen descendants – Aegon, Dany and Jon Snow. The sole one making a move for the Iron Throne in aDwD is Aegon. The sole available war fleet at the ready in the right location at the right time are Aurane Waters’ dromonds and Salladhor Saan’s galleys. Whomever believes Euron will succesfully come to Cersei’s aid in King’s Landing with an ironborn fleet as was portrayed in the show is gravely mistaken in my very honest opinion. Though I admit, his Silence may come to her rescue, I suspect the best location for this will be Casterly Rock, not King’s Landing.
Building and Manning a Fleet
In the same council where they agree to build new dromonds for the Iron Throne, Aurane also proposes that lords send their thieves and poachers to Aurane instead of the Wall.
Grand Maester Pycelle nodded ponderously. “I propose that we inform Castle Black that no more men will be sent to them until such time as Snow is gone.”
“Our new dromonds will need oarsmen,” said Aurane Waters. “Let us instruct the lords to send their poachers and thieves to me henceforth, instead of to the Wall.” (aFfC, Cersei IV)
It is certainly true that Aurane intends to man the new ships with a crew only loyal to him, not Cersei. But the timing of this also betrays that Aurane is planning ahead for a deadline in the near future. This is the same small council where they agreed with Aurane’s proposal to build new ships after all. We get a sense of Aurane’s haste behind the request for oarsmen, when we compare this to Jon Snow welcoming anyone, including wildlings and women at the Wall and gifting castles of the Wall to Stannis to be manned. And the comparison is apt, since the pool of labor that Aurane wishes to draw from is the same labor force that would otherwise land at the Wall. Jon’s motivation is the knowledge of the threat that the Others pose and the fear that the Others might attack the Wall rather sooner, than later. But Cersei’s small council has no knowledge yet of any impending naval or military threat at the heart of Westeros.
- Stannis is stuck at the Wall and the last two castles he holds in or near the Crownlands are besieged, namely Dragonstone and Storm’s End.
As for the Lannister host, two thousand seasoned veterans remained encamped outside the city walls, awaiting the arrival of Paxter Redwyne’s fleet to carry them across Blackwater Bay to Dragonstone. Lord Stannis appeared to have left only a small garrison behind him when he sailed north, so two thousand men would be more than sufficient, Cersei had judged. (aFfC, Jaime II)
- The Redwyne Fleet is near the Blackwater Bay, having carried two thousand Lannister soldiers to Dragonstone to besiege it. At the time of Cersei’s small council meeting (which occurs after Jaime II), the fleet is said to have passed the Straits of Tarth to aid Mace’s siege of Storm’s End.
- Some consider the ironmen potential naval allies when Aurane brings up the need for a fleet. They certainly do not expect the Ironborn to attack the realm south of the North.
- The dragon queen is at Slaver’s Bay.
- The Golden Company is marching for Volantis.
“Only a blind man could fail to see our war is all but won. Lord Tyrell has Storm’s End invested. Riverrun is besieged by the Freys and my cousin Daven, our new Warden of the West. Lord Redwyne’s ships have passed through the Straits of Tarth and are moving swiftly up the coast. Only a few fishing boats remain on Dragonstone to oppose Redwyne’s landing. The castle may hold for some time, but once we have the port we can cut the garrison off from the sea. Then only Stannis himself will remain to vex us.” (aFfC, Cersei IV)
Cersei’s small council chapter emphasises how most of them regard the war as having near won. The remaining rebels that hold out are all besieged and manned by low numbers. They are not even a threat anymore in their eyes. Nor do they perceive anybody else outside of Westeros as a threat. And yet, the bastard of Driftmark, Aurane is as hasty to man the as of yet non existing ships – because he is aware that the Golden Company is coming – as sure as the bastard of Winterfell is of the coming of the Others. And it is no coincidence that aDwD‘s epilogue where Kevan Lannister discusses the mysterious quick expansion of the Golden Company of the Stormlands and Tarth after Jon’s last chapter in aDwD with plenty of hints that the Others are at the other side of the Wall. (See They’re Here)
There is no obective need even to build the ships this fast. With the majority of the Redwyne fleet nearby, the rebuilding and expansion of the Royal Fleet could be done steadily, but at leisure. Sure, Cersei distrusts Paxter. But with Aurane as Admiral, who technically outranks Paxter Redwyne, Cersei solves that issue. She trusts Lord Redwyne enough to send him to Storm’s End and sail 2000 Lannister soldiers to Dragonstone, especially since his sons can be apprehended as hostages if needs be.
Let us now check how fast those dromonds get built. George actually gave us an estimate and comparison for this. By Cersei V, three dromonds are already nearing completion.
After [Lord Gyles,] Lord Waters arrived, to report that the first three dromonds were nearing completion and beg for more gold to finish them in the splendor they deserved. The queen was pleased to grant him his request. (aFfC, Cersei V)
The same day, Pycelle informed Cersei that according to Frey witnesses, Wyman Manderly beheaded Davos Seaworth, just like the small council in Cersei IV had decided he should. This would not be long after aDwD, Davos III. We can safely conclude that the order of Davos’ chapters match with Cersei’s as follows:
- aDwD, Davos II: The Freys are already in White Harbor, having brought Wendel’s bones. So far, Manderly has refused to commit to the Crown before his last surviving son is returned to him. Davos arrives at White Harbor by nightfall on the Merry Midwife and notices the Lannister ship that brought the Freys. Davos requests to meet with Wyman Manderly at night, and per Davos III is not allowed to leave his guarded room.
- aFfC, Cersei IV: At the small council, Cersei discusses Manderly’s demand for Wylis’ return. In yet another bird that arrives the very morning of the council – Lord Manderly claims that Stannis sent his onion knight to treat with White Harbor, took him captive and Manderly asks what he should do with him. Cersei answered immediately with the demand that Manderly should behead Davos.
- aDwD, Davos III: From the windows of the chambers in Manderly’s castle that Davos is not allowed to leave, saw the Merry Midwife wait for his return for four days. A fortnight later, Ser Marlon Manderly guides Davos into Manderly’s hall, where he is asked to make his case and accused of treason. Manderly makes a public demand for Davos to be beheaded and have his hands taken, before supper. Davos is put in a lord’s cell at the Wolf’s Den. In Davos IV we learn, Manderly has the tarred head of a criminal put in public view along with fingerless hands, pretending it was Davos.
- aFfC, Cersei V: The Freys confirm that Manderly beheaded Lord Davos. The envoy of the Iron Bank has been kept waiting for a fortnight. Three of the new dromonds are nearing completion.
- aFfC, Jaime III: Cersei sends Jaime to liberate Wylis Manderly from Harrenhal. Jaime leaves King’s Landing for Harrenhal, rescues Wylis and charges Red Ronnert with delivering Wylis Manderly to Maidenpool, so he can take a ship from there to White Harbor.
- aDwD, Davos IV: Wylis Manderly has arrived home and White Harbor holds a celebration. Since Davos III, Lord Davos was a “dead man” in the Wolf’s Den. Robett Glover takes him via a secret corridor to see Manderly in private where all is explained to him.
So, we know there are eighteen days between Manderly capturing Davos, sending Cersei a bird about it, receiving her demand for Davos’ head, and Manderly pretending to do exactly that. It does not really matter how many days later that Cersei received the bird about Davos’ capture. What matters is that she would receive the news of Davos’ beheading around eighteen days later after the small council. We can conclude that it took Aurane eighteen days (give or take) after the small council meeting to nearly complete three new dromonds.
Davos II and Davos IV also give us an estimate on what “fast” means when it comes to ship building. The evening that Davos arrives at White Harbor, he counts twenty three new war galleys built on Wyman Manderly’s command.
Behind the jetty wall, the inner harbor was crowded with war galleys. Davos counted twenty-three. Lord Wyman was a fat man, but not an idle one, it seemed. (aDwD, Davos II)
Not idle at all, for earlier in the same chapter, Davos expected Manderly to have managed to build a score of war galleys since he heard about it at Eastwatch-by-the-Sea: that is twenty war galleys. In other words, Manderly managed to make three more, than Davos expected.
At Eastwatch-by-the-Sea, Cotter Pyke told Davos that Lord Wyman was building war galleys. There could have been a score of ships concealed behind those walls, waiting only a command to put to sea. […] (aDwD, Davos II)
Later, Wyman Manderly reveals that he built double that amount over a year.
“I have been building warships for more than a year. Some you saw, but there are as many more hidden up the White Knife.” (aDwD, Davos IV)
Manderly managed to build 46 war galleys since his promise at the harvest feast in aCoK to build a warfleet for King Robb. If we take an estimation of Manderly’s “boat building” speed, he built on average almost 4 war galleys a month, or about one war galley per 8 days. Aurane manages to build nearly one per 6 days! And yes, dromonds are war galleys. If Davos, the seaworthy, already believed Manderly to be hard working at half the rate than Manderly actually succeeded in, then how impressive is Aurane’s rate? So, yes, Aurane is working very hasty.
This type of haste negates the possibility that Aurane had those built just to sail off to be a pirate king at the Stepstones, while Paxter Redwyne is prowling the area with near two hundred galleys. This type of haste can only be explained, if Aurane expected someone to arrive in several months time. And he is the sole man on the small council expecting the Golden Company to have broken its contract with Myr to sail for Westeros. We can even infer the deadline that Aurane gave himself: for if he keeps the rate at one dromond per 6 days, then he wants to finish ten dromonds in 60 days, or 2 months.
It might seem silly to use Davos’ chapters as time measurement for the speed at which war galleys are being built. After all, George often uses “fantasy” speeds and has Tyrion journey from Winterfell to the Crossroads in aGoT in the same amount of time as Catelyn journeying there from King’s Landing. But Davos’s second chapter in aDwD contains several very relevant references to Targaryens that match my proposal about Aurane, enough to serve as a literary pointer.
In Davos I, our onion knight learned from Godric Borrell that the Sloe-Eyed Maid on its way to Braavos was blown by a gale from the Bite and ended up shipwrecked at Sweetsister. In Qarth, Dany had inquired with several ships, including the Sloe-Eyed Maid whether they would consider to take her on as passenger along with her baby dragons. At the Lazy Eel in White Harbor, a Braavosi oarsman tells Davos the tale of Dany and her baby dragons seeking passage in Qarth. The oarsman learned that Dany sought passage to Westeros, when the oarsman’s ship was moored besides the Sloe-Eyed Maid in Pentos.
“Daenerys,” Davos said. “She was named for the Daenerys who wed the Prince of Dorne during the reign of Daeron the Second. I don’t know what became of her.”
“I do,” said the man who’d started all the talk of dragons, a Braavosi oarsman in a somber woolen jack. “When we were down to Pentos we moored beside a trader called the Sloe-Eyed Maid, and I got to drinking with her captain’s steward. He told me a pretty tale about some slip of a girl who come aboard in Qarth, to try and book passage back to Westeros for her and three dragons. Silver hair she had, and purple eyes. ‘I took her to the captain my own self,’ this steward swore to me, ‘but he wasn’t having none of that. There’s more profit in cloves and saffron, he tells me, and spices won’t set fire to your sails.’ ” (aDwD, Davos II)
In Aurane’s Part I, I already argued that Dany seeking passage on a ship from Qarth would coincide with the moment that Varys recruited Aurane as agent. And I also proposed that Varys would have used Dany having hatched three dragons and his expectation she was about to sail for Pentos as the carrot to convince Aurane to bend the knee to Joffrey.
And lo and behold, before the Braavosi oarsman tells the tale of Dany and her dragons in Qarth, other sailors banter over kings and Targaryens believed to be long dead being possibly still alive, since nobody has seen their dead body with their own two eyes. One of the Targaryens mentioned in this way is Rhaegar’s son, Aegon.
His fellow drinkers were talking about dragons now. “You’re bloody mad,” said an oarsman off Storm Dancer. “The Beggar King’s been dead for years. Some Dothraki horselord cut his head off.”
“So they tell us,” said the old fellow. “Might be they’re lying, though. He died half a world away, if he died at all. Who’s to say? If a king wanted me dead, might be I’d oblige him and pretend to be a corpse. None of us has ever seen his body.”
“I never saw Joffrey’s corpse, nor Robert’s,” growled the Eel’s proprietor. “Maybe they’re all alive as well. Maybe Baelor the Blessed’s just been having him a little nap all these years.”
The old fellow made a face. “Prince Viserys weren’t the only dragon, were he? Are we sure they killed Prince Rhaegar’s son? A babe, he was.”
“Wasn’t there some princess too?” asked a whore. She was the same one who’d said the meat was grey.
“Daena,” said the riverman. “That was the sister. Daena of Dragonstone. Or was it Daera?” (aDwD, Davos II)
In those same approximate eighteen days after the small council, Aurane Waters has also started to select younger men with no proven loyalty to King Tommen to captain the new dromonds.
[…] The Grand Maester had been especially querulous in council of late. At the last session he had complained bitterly about the men that Aurane Waters had chosen to captain her new dromonds. Waters meant to give the ships to younger men, whilst Pycelle argued for experience, insisting that the commands should go to those captains who had survived the fires of the Blackwater. “Seasoned men of proven loyalty,” he called them. Cersei called them old, and sided with Lord Waters. “The only thing these captains proved was that they know how to swim,” she’d said. (aFfC, Cersei V)
Like poachers and thieves, these young men will not be loyal to Lannisters or Tommen. They also would not yet have any children or wives that could be taken as hostages to threaten them to remain loyal to King Tommen. But these are not poachers and thieves. These are seamen, just not veteran seamen of proven loyalty. Dropping a strict selection method on experience and vetting on loyalty to Lannister, once again, speeds up the recruitment and manning of ships that are not even finished yet. Basically, Aurane can just sail away with the war fleet, fully manned, the moment they are completed and put out on the Blackwater. Oh wait, that is exactly what he did, right?
Aurane the Wakeful
By Cersei VIII, the news arrives that the Ironborn have taken the Shield Islands and attacked the Reach. After Margaery and Loras wake everyone up, Aurane the Hasty also proves to be Aurane the Wakefull. Cersei notes that only two men looked as if they were truly awake in the dead of night, while the rest of the capital is asleep: Qyburn and Aurane.
[…] only Lord Qyburn and Aurane Waters seemed awake. The others had been roused from bed by Margaery’s messengers pounding on their doors, and stood there rumpled and confused. Outside the night was black and still. The castle and the city slept. Boros Blount and Meryn Trant seemed to be sleeping too, albeit on their feet. Even Osmund Kettleblack was yawning. (aFfC, Cersei VII)
The contrast of Aurane’s wakefulness against other sleepy people who barely had time to dress fits with someone who was concentrated at work, and not some lover prowling a mistress’ bed. The other wakeful one is Qyburn. And we know what he was working on so hard – the Mountain and the victims he experiments on in the black cells.
We also get an update on the dromonds’ progress: half of the new dromonds are fitted out. Progress has been so speedy that not so bright Ser Harys Swyft believes Aurane can take on the Iron fleet with just the dromonds, while leaving a much larger fleet that knows the Arbor help a siege against Storm’s End and Dragonstone manned by several score of men.
“What of your new dromonds?” asked Ser Harys. “The longships of the ironmen cannot stand before our dromonds, surely? King Robert’s Hammer is the mightiest warship in all Westeros.”
“She was,” said Waters. “Sweet Cersei will be her equal, once complete, and Lord Tywin will be twice the size of either. Only half are fitted out, however, and none is fully crewed. […]” (aFfC, Cersei VII)
This would mean five dromonds are fitted, and the other half has been rudimentary built.
After Loras offers to take Dragonstone himself in order to release Paxter Redwyne from the siege, Cersei inquires whether any of the new ships is ready to be put to water and deliver Loras swiftly to Dragonstone.
“Your courage takes my breath away, Ser Loras,” Cersei said. “Lord Waters, are any of the new dromonds fit to put to sea?”
“Sweet Cersei is, Your Grace. A swift ship, and as strong as the queen she’s named for.” (aFfC, Cersei VII)
Both declarations by Aurane about Sweet Cersei separated by mere minutes seem contradictory next to one another: first Sweet Cersei is not completed yet, but then a little later Aurane declares it fit to put to sea. Add that towards the end of aFfC, Aurane has Cersei agree to putting all the other dromonds be put in the Bay, then Sweet Cersei was in truth completed in Aurane’s mind by Cersei VII as far as its true purpose goes. It probably only lacked the gilded image of Cersei as figurehead.
Another of the ships would be named Sweet Cersei, and would bear a gilded figurehead carved in her likeness, clad in mail and lion helm, with spear in hand. (aFfC, Cersei VI)
Which was but honeyed flattery.
Aurane himself seemed to downplay the fleet’s progress in his initial response. Which is not surprising, considering the question he answered at the time – whether his war fleet could be of use against the Ironborn. Aurane did not want to be ordered to sail for the Shields and Mander. Reasonably his fleet could not take on what he would believe to be the Iron Fleet. And if he built this fleet in support of Aegon’s invasion, the Shields and Mander were on the wrong side of Westeros.
Launching the Ten
In Cersei’s last chapter of aFfC, the ten new dromonds are finished. As the small council learns of Margaery’s arrest by the High Sparrow, Aurane suggests to launch them.
[Harys Swyft] stumbled at the door and might have fallen if Aurane Waters had not caught him by the arm. Even Orton Merryweather seemed anxious. “The smallfolk are fond of the little queen,” he said. “They will not take well to this. I fear what might happen next, Your Grace.”
“Lord Merryweather is right,” said Lord Waters. “If it please Your Grace, I will launch the rest of our new dromonds. The sight of them upon the Blackwater with King Tommen’s banner flying from their masts will remind the city who rules here, and keep them safe should the mobs decide to run riot again.”
He left the rest unspoken; once on the Blackwater, his dromonds could stop Mace Tyrell from bringing his army back across the river, just as Tyrion had once stopped Stannis. Highgarden had no sea power of its own this side of Westeros. They relied upon the Redwyne fleet, presently on its way back to the Arbor.
“A prudent measure,” the queen announced. “Until this storm has passed, I want your ships crewed and on the water.”(aFfC, Cersei X)
Between Aurane’s return from Dragonstone until the order to put the new war fleet on the water are but six to seven days.
- Day 1: Aurane arrived at dusk with the news of Dragonstone being captured. That same night, Cersei told Margaery the news of Loras being at death’s door.
- Day 2: The next day, a Tyroshi arrived with the head of an older dwarf he killed in Tyrosh; the same dwarf juggler that Penny tells Tyrion about who ended up missing a head, after which Penny and her brother Groat fled to Volantis. The Iron Bank began to recall all outstanding debt from Westerosi merchants. Pycelle warned Cersei that Lord Gyles was so ill that he was bedridden. After Cersei’s nightmare about Maggy the Frog, she drummed up Pycelle and ordered him to make her something that would give her a dreamless sleep.
- Day 3: In the morning, she began to plot Osney Kettleback’s false confession.
- Day 5: Three nights after last seeing Pycelle, Lord Gyles Rosby has died. Pycelle confessed to providing Margaery moon tea. Taena and Orton Merryweather supped with Cersei and bring the Blue Bard, who ends up in the black cells and is taught what lies and false confessions to sing.
- Day 6: In the morning, Tommen mentions it is maiden’s day, which provides Cersei with the idea for Osney to confess to the High Sparrow. Margaery and her cousins are apprehended during her visit to Baelor’s sept as a consequence, and examined (except for Alla).
- Day 6 or 7: Septa Moelle announced her findings of the examination of Margaery’s hymen in front of a full court and Cersei consents to put the remainder of Aurane’s warfleet onto the Blackwater. It is unclear whether this public accusation in the throne room occurrs on maiden’s day or the next.
Cersei was mistaken about Aurane’s intentions with the fleet: the very moment that Cersei was arrested by the High Sparrow, Aurane sailed away.
“Merryweather has resigned his seat on the council and fled back to Longtable with his wife, who was the first to bring us news of the . . . accusations . . . against Your Grace.”
“They let Taena go.” That was the best thing she had heard since the High Sparrow had said no. Taena could have doomed her. “What of Lord Waters? His ships . . . if he brings his crews ashore, he should have enough men to . . .”
“As soon as word of Your Grace’s present troubles reached the river, Lord Waters raised sail, unshipped his oars, and took his fleet to sea. Ser Harys fears he means to join Lord Stannis. Pycelle believes that he is sailing to the Stepstones, to set himself up as a pirate.”
“All my lovely dromonds.” Cersei almost laughed. “My lord father used to say that bastards are treacherous by nature. Would that I had listened.” She shivered. “I am lost, Qyburn.” (aFfC, Cersei X)
This was at the latest two day after Margaery’s arrest. Cersei was arrested while visiting Margaery, the day after Septa Moelle’s public declarations at court. So, in less than ten days we have Aurane returning from Dragonstone and sailing away with ten new dromonds. In other words, Aurane returned either as the wharf had started on the last dromond or when they were to commence fitting out the last half of the warfleet.
Readers sometimes still interprete Aurane’s theft of the warfleet as a “flight”. I hope that at the very least I have provided enough circumstantial evidence to put such a notion at rest. This was premeditated and was always going to happen. It was just the most opportune time – chaos, nobody who can give orders, the Redwyne Fleet already sailing south and out of reach of messenger birds, and way ahead of the arrival of either the armies of Mace Tyrell or Tarly.
Not a Tyrell Agent
Other readers are open to the idea that Aurane was a Tyrell agent. But the fleet, its cost and the haste at which it was built is a weighty argument against it. It put the Iron Throne in even more serious debts and made the Iron Bank into an adversary who began to demand full repayments of loans from merchants. The debt and financial issues this caused is not just for Cersei or King Tommen to pay off, but whomever sits the Iron Throne after, including Aegon. The Tyrells may be rich, but not as rich as the Lannisters. One basically has to have either a mint (like Lord Manderly), be a bank or moneylender. Between Illyrio, the Tyrells and the Lannisters, the Tyrells can cover this debt least of all, especially once they suffer raids from the Ironborn. And why would they incur such a debt over ten war galleys, while Paxter Redwyne has two hundred warships?
Paxter Redwyne owned two hundred warships, and five times as many merchant carracks, wine cogs, trading galleys, and whalers. (aFfC, Cersei VII)
It would make the Tyrells as stupid and foolish as Cersei. In contrast, Aegon actually could use such a small fleet, and gaining the Iron Throne with it would be worth the cost with Braavos and the Iron Bank. It might even serve Illyrio and Pentos, if they hope to hurt the Iron Bank.
Now, that said, this does not mean that at some point Aurane and Loras Tyrell did not come to some form of an agreement and cooperated over say Dragonstone and what stories to tell Cersei.
Conclusion (tl:tr)
George set out to destroy the maritime power of the Baratheon and Lannister rivals for the Iron Thron within the Narrow Sea. Though the Lannisters can rely on the Redwyne Fleet for a while in the Narrow Sea during aFfC, Euron’s attacks on the Reach provide a convincing plot point for that fleet to sail back for the Arbor, Oldtown and the Reach. And while the Ironborn have an advantage in the Reach at this moment, in truth the actual dangerous Iron Fleet is half a world away at Slaver’s Bay by the end of aDwD. So, the sole maritime power in the Narrow Sea during Aegon’s invasion is the remainder of Salladhor’s war galleys and Aurane’s stolen dromonds. This is sufficient to acquire the necessary islands such as Tarth and transport the Golden Company to Storm’s End or any other strategic landing place in Blackwater Bay. and prevent potential war fleets from passing the Stepstones into the Narrow Sea to come to Cersei’s rescue.
George also set up plenty of references in Davos’ chapter that refer to both Dany and Aegon as potential Targaryen survivors who may want to acquire the Iron Throne. When we timeline Wyman Manderly’s interaction with Cersei Lannister and her small council with regards the capture of Davos and his faked beheading, we can use these to estimate at which rate Aurane is building the new dromonds – about a ship a week. This is faster even than the fleet that Wyman Manderly is building, and Wyman’s building rate far outranged Davos’ estimate. We get clues that Aurane works day and night on these ships, just like Qyburn works day and night on the Mountain.
Meanwhile the Iron Throne can rely on the biggest fleet of whole Westeros, the Redwyne fleet, with Aurane as admiral and thus outranking Paxter Redwyne, and Cersei still has Redwyne’s sons as potential hostages. So, it makes no sense for Aurane to build the ships at such a speed, unless he expected to meet a certain deadline. Nor does it make sense for Aurane to build them for a personal “I go pirating” dream. He would never expect to get away with that at a time he should have expected the Redwyne fleet to be a permanent fixture in the Narrow Sea for a while yet.
The fleet building itself, the cost and debt with the Iron Bank makes no sense from a Tyrell angle. There is no reason for them to get into trouble with the Iron Bank over ten ships, when their bannerman has the biggest fleet of Westeros already. Nor do they have the largest coffers. The dromond building is is the biggest argument against the idea that Aurane is an agent for the Tyrells.