The Fence and the Punk with a Knife

In Illyrio’s Plan I went over some aspects of Illyrio’s story and claims. One of the biggest issues with understanding both Varys and Illyrio is that George has given us very little info on these men, and when these two men reveal something about themselves, it is almost always from a point of view of a character who mistrusts them: Dany, Eddard, Arya, Tyrion, … And we should distrust them to an extent. We have evidence that they plot war, use other people as tools for their own ends, and are not always forthcomnig with the full truth. Not only does George allow for large gaps for the reader to fill in the blanks. He has us question the veracity of anything they reveal about themselves.

Cherry Picking

Beneath his window six cherry trees stood sentinel around a marble pool, their slender branches bare and brown. A naked boy stood on the water, poised to duel with a bravo’s blade in hand. He was lithe and handsome, no older than sixteen, with straight blond hair that brushed his shoulders. So lifelike did he seem that it took the dwarf a long moment to realize he was made of painted marble, though his sword shimmered like true steel. (aDwD, Tyrion I).

Take the statue at Illyrio’s pool that Tyrion pays attention to for example. It became integral to the Blackfyre theory for its six cherry trees. So, that when Illyrio claims it portrays him when he was still youthful and slim and at his best as a bravo, a lot of readers dismiss it as a lie, and insist that it must be a statue of Aegon instead with his six cherry picked companions on the Shy Maid: JonCon, Lemore, Haldon, Duck, Ysilla and Yandry. The Blackfyre theory linked the cherry trees to the black cherries with sweet cream Illyrio eats  and the cherries at the wedding feast at Whitewalls, where a secret Blackfyre hopes to rally lords for his claim, in A Knight of Seven Kingdoms, The Mysteryy Knight.

But it also ignores the mention of cherries or cherry with other characters. That does not mean there is no symbolism behind them, and that the interpretation is wrong. It just means that the Blackfyre theory itself is cherry picking, well, the cherries. They come in red, in black, in white, dried, with lemons, or apples. And there are other obvious wordplay not being considered. In the Mystery Knight, the feeding of cherries by the bride to her husband at the wedding is an innuendo to “popping her cherry“. Illyrio eating black cherries then could mean an innuendo to Illyrio loving Serra Blackfyre. Nor was it Aegon who cherry picked his companions, but Illyrio, and so the statue would then be Illyrio after all.

Overall, readers cherry pick what to believe what little Illyrio and Varys tell about themselves. If something does not fit the reader dismisses it as a lie without any evidence for the lie. But then you can make them be anything or anyone, except what they and George are telling you. Because when they lie about something, George usually reveals that. And when they tell the truth, we will see consistent and quite logical behavior from them.

Instead of focusing on cherries, perhaps we should compare what the statue depicts: a dueling bravo. Who else do we know in the books who was a bravo? Of course, Syrio Forel.

Syrio Forel and Arya Stark, by Luis Borgia

“Watching is not seeing, dead girl. The water dancer sees. Come, put down the sword, it is time for listening now.” (aGoT, Arya IV)

The first novel introduces us to Syrio Forel, once first sword to the Sealord of Braavos, where bravos duel at a moon pool. And he tells Arya the story on how he was picked by the Sealord to be the first, over all the other bravos that were stronger, faster, younger, …

“On the day I am speaking of, the first sword was newly dead, and the Sealord sent for me. Many bravos had come to him, and as many had been sent away, none could say why. When I came into his presence, he was seated, and in his lap was a fat yellow cat. He told me that one of his captains had brought the beast to him, from an island beyond the sunrise. ‘Have you ever seen her like?’ he asked of me. “And to him I said, ‘Each night in the alleys of Braavos I see a thousand like him,’ and the Sealord laughed, and that day I was named the first sword.” (aGoT, Arya IV)

Illyrio is a fat yellow cat, no?

“The cat was an ordinary cat, no more. The others expected a fabulous beast, so that is what they saw. How large it was, they said. It was no larger than any other cat, only fat from indolence, for the Sealord fed it from his own table. What curious small ears, they said. Its ears had been chewed away in kitten fights. And it was plainly a tomcat, yet the Sealord said ‘her,’ and that is what the others saw. Are you hearing?”
Arya thought about it. “You saw what was there.” (aGoT, Arya IV)

Take all the fanciful intricate exotic potential identities away from Illyrio and what we have is just an alley cat. We can come to a coherent, albeit speculative and diabolical, background story, choices and motive if we do take Illyrio’s words about himself at face value. It only becomes inconsistent, when we dismiss it.

One of the biggest reveals in that regard is the background story that Illyrio tells Tyrion on how team Valyrio operated in the criminal world of Pentos as street kids (plain old alley cat): golden hearted thieves who steal from lesser thieves (Varys) and return the stolen goods to the original owner for a fee (Illyrio). It seems almost too good to be true.

Now see what is there! Not just that they were street kids surviving. Illyrio portrays it as a public service, but it is a crime. What is the legal term for this type of crime? It is called fencing! A fence is a middle man who buys stolen goods from a thief and then sells it for profit to the public, while protecting the identity of the thief or even that the goods were stolen at all. Team Valyrio is still operating that way, just on a much bigger and political scale.

Now look through Tyrion’s eyes at the statue. What are we looking at? What else is called fencing? Swordfighting, of course! And it specifically implies the type of swordfighting that in-world is referred to as the water dance of a bravo in both Pentos and Braavos. Not the brute hacking, hawing and hammering of the knight’s iron dance.

“Now we will begin the dance. Remember, child, this is not the iron dance of Westeros we are learning, the knight’s dance, hacking and hammering, no. This is the bravo’s dance, the water dance, swift and sudden.” (aGoT, Arya IV)

That iron dance we witness against the water dance when Cersei’s soldiers and knights attempt to capture Arya.

The fallen men were getting up. Syrio kicked one in the face and snatched the steel cap off the other’s head. The dagger man stabbed at him. Syrio caught the thrust in the helmet and shattered the man’s kneecap with his stick. The last red cloak shouted a curse and charged, hacking down with both hands on his sword. Syrio rolled right, and the butcher’s cut caught the helmetless man between neck and shoulder as he struggled to his knees. The longsword crunched through mail and leather and flesh. The man on his knees shrieked. Before his killer could wrench free his blade, Syrio jabbed him in the apple of his throat. The guardsman gave a choked cry and staggered back, clutching at his neck, his face blackening. (aGoT, Arya IV)

Tywin is a butcher of course, and so is Littlefinger, whose ancestry is ironically Braavos.

The device painted on the shield was one Sansa did not know; a grey stone head with fiery eyes, upon a light green field. “My grandfather’s shield,” Petyr explained when he saw her gazing at it. “His own father was born in Braavos and came to the Vale as a sellsword in the hire of Lord Corbray, so my grandfather took the head of the Titan as his sigil when he was knighted.” (aSoS, Sansa VI)

Petyr’s great-grandfather was a Braavosi sellsword who at some point entered the service of Lord Corbray. Not so incidentally perhaps, Littlefinger’s ancestor lived through or fought in the last war between Braavos and Pentos in 209 AC. The son of the Braavosi sellsword became a hedge knight and took the Titan of Braavos as sigil.

That seemed to amuse the lord of cheese no end. He slapped a meaty thigh and said, “You Westerosi are all the same. You sew some beast upon a scrap of silk, and suddenly you are all lions or dragons or eagles. I can take you to a real lion, my little friend. The prince keeps a pride in his menagerie. Would you like to share a cage with them?”
The lords of the Seven Kingdoms did make rather much of their sigils, Tyrion had to admit. “Very well,” he conceded. “A Lannister is not a lion.” (aDwD, Tyrion I)

Illyrio’s reference to the menagerie of the Prince of Pentos circles back to Syrio’s fat yellow tomcat of the Sealord’s. Like a good bravo, Illyrio sees through the symbolism, calls it scraps of silk, and compares it to another cat – a real big one now – that you do not want to share a cage with, lest you end up being its meal. That is the answer to the Baelish sigil. Behind the mockingbird is a Braavosi who was never a fence, but a swellsword butcher who got dubbed a knight with a sigil. Littlefinger is not a bravo! He is a racketeer (in the narrow sense of that word).

Petyr Baelish, by Josu Hernaiz

Jon Arryn gave Littlefinger the customs at Gilltown in 289 AC to please Lysa Arryn. And he brought in three times as much as any of the other collectors. Dealing with a spendthrift king, Jon Arryn brought Littlefinger for cout for his talent. Within three years, he rose to master of coin and became a member of the small council. Lysa remembers it as Littlefinger having been brought to court by Jon Arryn to be master of coin. That suggests, he’s been in that position since 292 AC.

Oh, he was clever. He did not simply collect the gold and lock it in a treasure vault, no. He paid the king’s debts in promises, and put the king’s gold to work. He bought wagons, shops, ships, houses. He bought grain when it was plentiful and sold bread when it was scarce. He bought wool from the north and linen from the south and lace from Lys, stored it, moved it, dyed it, sold it. The golden dragons bred and multiplied, and Littlefinger lent them out and brought them home with hatchlings. (aCoK, Tyrion IV)

In the proposal that Illyrio intends to cause a bank run on the Iron Bank to collapse the Braavosi economy, John Suburbs rightfully questions how Petyr Baelish managed to triple the customs’ income of Gulltown and King’s Landing without crippling the economy. The argument goes as follows. Sure, Petyr Baelish embezzles and cooks the books, but that does not explain how Petyr Baelish – who only owns a tower, beach rocks and sheep pellets – could acquire the money to start his financial smokescreen in Gulltown. So, the argument concludes with, Littlefinger could only do this with a financial backer. And that that must be Illyrio.

But Petyr did not require much to start his racket. Lysa helped him get a leg up into his first post, and she always backed him. How did Littlefinger reward Ser Dontos again for whisking Sansa away from the Purple Wedding?

Petyr Baelish put a hand on the rail. “But first you’ll want your payment. Ten thousand  dragons, was it?”
“Ten thousand.” Dontos rubbed his mouth with the back of his hand. “As you promised, my lord.”
“Ser Lothor, the reward.”
Lothor Brune dipped his torch. Three men stepped to the gunwale, raised crossbows, fired. One bolt took Dontos in the chest as he looked up, punching through the left crown on his surcoat. The others ripped into throat and belly. It happened so quickly neither Dontos nor Sansa had time to cry out. When it was done, Lothor Brune tossed the torch down on top of the corpse. The little boat was blazing fiercely as the galley moved away. (aSoS, Sansa V)

Petyr hires compromized people on the promise of gold, but murders them when the time comes to pay up. Littlefinger murdered, stole, extorted, threatened and lied his way into money, using brutes to strongarm or kill the gullible or defenceless who did not pay for his discretion or protection. A criminal does not need a secret large investor, if he can racketeer his way in owning ships, shops, and warehouses.

Who exactly hires the strongarms? Not Littlefinger. A customs chief in Gulltown does not have to hire brutes on his own dime. No, he gets to pick and choose whose names get on the list for hire on Lord Grafton of Gulltown’s dime, or the rich Gulltown Arryns who wed merchants. His list of names would be either useless peniless butchers who want in on the racket, or a rich but shady merchant paying a bribe to get a respectful officer positions. The Gulltown Arryns would not mind seeing merchant competition being shaken down. And if Lysa Arryn’s friend was willing to do it for them … You get the picture, right? Less than couth, they are. So, boarish, rude and vulgar, right? And Lord Grafton of Gulltown is a good friend of Petyr. It was even easier in King’s Landing, where the treasury pays for the Gold Cloaks doing the “policing”, while a certain butcher’s son was the Commander of the Gold Cloaks.

The look the king gave Slynt was cold. “Janos was hardly the first gold cloak ever to take a bribe, I grant you, but he may have been the first commander to fatten his purse by selling places and promotions. By the end he must have had half the officers in the City Watch paying him part of their wages. Isn’t that so, Janos?” […] “Two men who were prepared to come forward died suddenly on their rounds.” Stannis narrowed his eyes. “Do not trifle with me, my lord. I saw the proof Jon Arryn laid before the small council. If I had been king you would have lost more than your office, I promise you, but Robert shrugged away your little lapses. ‘They all steal,’ I recall him saying. ‘Better a thief we know than one we don’t, the next man might be worse.’ Lord Petyr’s words in my brother’s mouth, I’ll warrant. Littlefinger had a nose for gold, and I’m certain he arranged matters so the crown profited as much from your corruption as you did yourself.” (aSoS, Samwell V)

Lysa Arryn’s letters of confidence opened doors, and anyone who believed they could profit from Littlefinger’s racket would have given him what he needed. Littlefinger never needed someone like Illyrio to amass his fortune, with what we have on page. If team Valyrio were alleycats, then Littlefinger was a punk with a knife.

Littlefinger hefted the knife lightly in his hand, testing the grip. He flipped it in the air, caught it again with his other hand. “Such sweet balance. You want to find the owner, is that the reason for this visit? You have no need of Ser Aron for that, my lady. You should have come to me.” […] He grasped the blade between thumb and forefinger, drew it back over his shoulder, and threw it across the room with a practiced flick of his wrist. It struck the door and buried itself deep in the oak, quivering. “It’s mine.” (aGoT, Catelyn IV)

Dragon Eggs Returned

Now that I have covered the basics of the different methods and type of crimes they had a talent for, let us revisit one of Illyrio’s major gift to Dany – the dragon eggs

When she opened it, she found piles of the finest velvets and damasks the Free Cities could produce … and resting on top, nestled in the soft cloth, three huge eggs. Dany gasped. […] “What are they?” she asked, her voice hushed and full of wonder.
“Dragon’s eggs, from the Shadow Lands beyond Asshai,” said Magister Illyrio. “The eons have turned them to stone, yet still they burn bright with beauty.” (aGoT, Daenerys II)

Black Dragon Egg, by Julepe for Fantasy Flight Games

In the original draft for aGoT, Dany finds them in the wilderness outside of Vaes Dothrak, after killing Drogo. It was reworked into Illyrio gifting them to her. In aDwD of 2011, George reveals Illyrio’s role as a fence, in particular that of returning stolen goods back to the owner or victim.

Varys spied on lesser thieves and took their takings. I offered my help to their victims, promising to recover their valuables for a fee. (aDwD, Tyrion II)

This reframes Illyrio’s gift as returning lost or stolen dragon eggs back to a Targaryen descendant, the sole rightful owner of any dragon egg laid since the Doom of Valyria.

A fence protects the identity of the thief or buyer of stolen goods, and portrays themselves as having come to the stolen goods through legitimate means. In this gardening way, George allows for Illyrio’s claim about Ashai to be a typical fence lie. And not being kept in hatcheries of a volcano, like Dragonstone, petrifies dragon eggs, and whatever made the eggs after the Dance not hatch properly anymore that petrifies. Princess Rhaena Targaryen’s Dreamfyre laid clutches of eggs thrice during Rhaena’s stay at Fair Isle, twice in 47 AC and another clutch in 49-50 AC. None hatched until Rhaena finally moved to Dragonstone in 51 AC.

The eggs that Dreamfyre had laid on Fair Isle had all hatched once on Dragonstone (Fire & Blood – Birth, Death and Betrayal under Jaehaerys I)

When Elissa Farman made off with three dragon eggs from Dragonstone, in order to buy herself ships to sail the Sunset Sea, Grand Maester Benifer claimed Jaehaerys I need not fear those eggs would hatch by anyone who would buy them in the Free Cities, away from Dragonstone.

 “It was gold she wanted, gold to build a ship. She will sell the eggs. They are worth—”
“—a fleet of ships.” Jaehaerys had received his sister in his solar, with only Grand Maester Benifer present to bear witness to what was said . “If those eggs should hatch, there will be another dragonlord in the world, one not of our own house.”
“They may not hatch,” Benifer said. “Not away from Dragonstone. The heat…it is known, some dragon eggs simply turn to stone.” (Fire and Blood – Birth, Death and Betrayal under Jaehaerys I)

So, just because Dany’s eggs seemed petrified they are not necessarily eons old. And if that claim of Illyrio can be wrong, so can the other about Asshai.

Elissa Farman “sailed to Pentos” after Driftmark, and “there the trail went cold.” (Fire & Blood – Birth, Death and Betrayal under Jaehaerys I). And Jaehaerys I jokes to Benifer after the claim they will turn to stone that “some spicemonger in Pentos will find himself possessed of three very costly stones“. He adds that “…the birth of three young dragons is not a thing that can easily be kept secret.” George RR Martin is such a tease here! Because less than 250 years later, the Pentoshi spicemonger Illyrio ends up possessing three very costly stones, which hatch at the edge of the Dothraki Sea (the far end of the civilised world). And once Dany and her hatchlings reach Qarth, the news sails around the world.

Jaehaerys to Rhaena: “You wanted Dragonstone and I gave it to you, and you brought this woman there. This thief.” […] “Should the dragons turn up, anywhere from here to Yi Ti, we will demand their return. They were stolen from us, they are ours by right. […].” (Fire & Blood – Birth, Death and Betrayal under Jaehaerys I)

Rego Draz, by Lopata Four

George teases us too with the Pentoshi master of coin, Rego Draz. He was born with nothing but still became the richest man of Pentos. Unlike Illyrio, he was denied a seat with the magisters, but otherwise he is very much Illyrio’s parallel, flaunting silken robes, ruby rings and using a gilded palanquin. Rego became Jaehaerys’s master-of-coin in 50 AC and gained the title of Lord. Like Varys it was merely a title, without lands or castle or men. In other words, Rego Draz is a mix of Varys and Illyrio in one person, taking the role of Varys in searching for information on both Elissa Farman’s whereabouts as well as the stolen goods, and being quite adept with the treasury.

Benifer, acting through the Pentoshi master of coin, who had agents in every port, reached out across the narrow sea as the king had commanded…“paying good coin to bad men” (in the words of Rego Draz) for any news of dragon eggs, dragons, or Elissa Farman. (Fire & Blood – Birth, Death and Betrayal under Jaehaerys I)

Two years later, Rego and Jaehaerys figure out that Elissa sold the stolen eggs to the Sealord of Braavos to finance the building of Sun Chaser, a ship that could sail deep waters without oars, with which she sailed west into the sunset sea.

We know now that Lady Elissa made her way to Braavos after Pentos, though not before taking on a new name [Alys Westhill]. […] Under that name, she secured an audience with the Sealord of Braavos. The Sealord’s menagerie was far famed, and he was glad to buy the dragon eggs. (Fire & Blood – Birth, Death and Betrayal under Jaehaerys I)

The Iron Bank denied any knowledge of these eggs, while the Sealord only spoke in hypotheticals, so that Braavos could not be accused of knowingly having bought stolen dragon eggs. Just the perfect set up for team Valyrio’s fences!

The Sealord said, “I admit to nothing. If I was in possession of such eggs, however, it could only be because I purchased them.”
“From a thief.”
“How shall that be proved? Has this thief been seized, tried, found guilty? Braavos is a city of laws. Who is the rightful owner of these eggs? Can they show me proof of ownership?” […] “I do not have these eggs, of course,” the Sealord said. “You cannot prove elsewise. If I did have them, however…well, until they hatch, they are but stones. Would your king begrudge me three pretty stones? Now, if I had three…chickens…I might understand his concern. I do admire your Jaehaerys, though. He is a great improvement on his uncle, and Braavos does not wish to see him so unhappy. So instead of stones, let me offer…gold.” (Fire and Blood – Jaehaerys and Alysanne, Their Triumphs and Tragedies)

Septon Barth did not manage to recover the stolend eggs. Instead a deal was struck, where the Sealord paid gold and urged the Iron Bank to forgive the Crown’s remaining debt to them, cutting it in half.

“And all at the cost of three stones,” Barth told the king.
“The Sealord had best hope that they remain stones,” Jaehaerys said. “If If I should hear so much as a whisper of…chickens…his palace will be the first to burn.” (Fire & Blood – Jaehaerys and Alysanne, Their Triumphs and Tragedies)

The “theory” provokes many to question how Illyrio could have known about them and how he would have acquired them. But finding out about them would not be Illyrio’s role. In the Valyrio-team that is Varys’s task. So, the question should be “How did Varys find out?” The answer could be surprisingly simple. Varys would have discovered both the existence and the whereabouts of Elissa Farman’s eggs in the same sources that Gyldayn used to write Fire & Blood. It is quite easy for us to overlook the fact that Fire & Blood is an existing history book in Westeros. According to Elio Garciá (Ran on westeros.org) Archmaester Gyldayn lived into Robert I Baratheon’s reign. Maester Yandel used his Targaryen histories (published and unpublished) as his source for the World book.

Here follows an account of the reign of House Targaryen, from Aegon the Conqueror to Aerys the Mad King. Many are the maesters who have written on these matters, and the knowledge they have fashioned informs much of what will follow. But in one thing, I have taken a liberty: the account of Aegon’s Conquest is not my own work but something lately shared with me in the Citadel, an as-yet complete work by the Archmaester Gyldayn. This fragment — part of a greater work that is intended as a history of the Targaryen kings — was first brought to my attention by the Archmaester Perestan, who regards his efforts (and his prose) highly. […] I have placed it here, with Gyldayn’s blessing […]” (aWoIaF – The Reign of the Dragons, retconned version)

Initially, Archmaester Gyldayn lived during the tragic event of Summerhal and the end of Aegon V’s reign. But then he could not have been alive during Robert’s dynasty. George wanted to continue to use Gyldayn’s voice for part 2 of Fire & Blood. So, Yandel’s reference to Gyldayn’s work has been retconned in a nutshell to “Gyldayn still writing his history (part 2) in 300 AC as well as sharing what he is working on with Yandel.”

Gyldayn’s sources for the retelling of Elissa Farman’s theft, about Rego, private conversations between Jaehaerys, Rhaena and Benifer would not come only from the Citadel, but also on Dragonstone and the red keep. In that way, Rego Draz being a contemporary of Elissa Farman and her trail going cold in Pentos becomes more than an amusing parallel. Reading up on such a man would pique Varys’s curiosity, if only to learn more about how he fared and his eventual fate. Not well, he was murdered in the streets of King’s Landing during an epidemy of the Shivers around the changing of the years in 59-60 AC by starving and drunken angry smallfolk.

Amidst the chaos, His Grace would lose another of his lords, not to the Shivers but to ignorance and hate. Rego Draz had never taken up residence in the Red Keep, though there was ample room for him there, and the king had made the offer many times. The Pentoshi preferred his own manse on the Street of Silk, with the Dragonpit looming above him atop the Hill of Rhaenys. […] After ten years in service to the Iron Throne, Lord Rego had grown quite stout, and no longer chose to ride. Instead he moved from manse to castle and back again in an ornate gilded palanquin. Unwisely, his route took him through the reeking heart of Flea Bottom, the foulest and most lawless district of the city. (Fire & Blood – Jaehaerys and Alysanne, Their Triumphs and Tragedies)

Rego lived in a mansion on the Street of Silk, not the red keep. He traveled between both in his gilded palanquin. During a harsh winter, an epidemic, and prices rising for bread, the foreign master of coin was an easy target. So, when a drunk, starving and angry mob noticed his palanquin, they attacked it and then bashed his skull in (hello Pisswater Prince) and cut off his fingers for his rings.

When his lordship raised his hands to ward off the blows raining down on him, gold and gemstones glittered on every finger, and the attack grew more frenzied still. A woman shouted, “He’s Pentoshi. Them’s the bastards brung the Shivers here.” One of the men pried a stone up from the king’s newly cobbled street and brought it down upon Lord Rego’s head again and again, until only a red mash of blood and bone and brains remained. Thus died the Lord of Air, his skull crushed by one of the very cobblestones he had helped the king lay down. Even then, his assailants were not done with him. Before they ran, they ripped off his fine clothes and cut off all his fingers to lay claim to his rings. (Fire and Blood – Jaehaerys and Alysanne, Their Triumphs and Tragedies)

Varys makes no such mistakes himself. He has a room in the red keep (and an undergaoler cell). He moves about the districts of the city in various disguises, blending in, and wearing protective gear, including his head. And Varys is effectively armed with a dirk and shortsword!

Varys did not look at all like himself. A scarred face and a stubble of dark beard showed under his spiked steel cap, and he wore mail over boiled leather, dirk and shortsword at his belt. […] Even his walk is different, Tyrion observed. The scent of sour wine and garlic clung to Varys instead of lavender. (aCoK, Tyrion III)

He is not just unrecognizable to Cersei’s or Littlefinger’s spies, but to the potential citizens of the city, especially during times when a bread riot is a real risk.

“The work I do does not permit me to travel the streets amid a column of knights. So when I leave the castle, I adopt more suitable guises, and thus live to serve you longer.” (aCoK, Tyrion III)

And if Varys read up on Rego Draz, his life and career, he would stumble on the story of the stolen dragon eggs.

I would go even one step further. It is possible that Aerys II hired Varys initially to find the stolen eggs, exactly becausre Farman’s trail went cold after Pentos. Varys’s career in King’s Landing starts around the period when the Mad King desired to hatch dragon eggs, after the Defiance of Duskendale.

Lord Darklyn would never have dared defy him if he had been a dragonrider, Aerys reasoned. His attempts to bring forth dragons from eggs found in the depths of Dragonstone (some so old that they had turned to stone) yielded naught, however. (tWoIaF – The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II)

As ever before, such a desire led to gathering knowledge on (a) where to find dragon eggs and (b) hatching lore. After Summerhal, and the dragons long gone, the Mad King had to dig deep beneath the volcano of Dragnostone to find a few petrified eggs. He would have wanted more, likely.

Ellisa’s theft of the dragon eggs was not common knowledge, and the arrangement between Jaehaerys I and the Sealord of Braavos even less so. Such a state secret ends up obscured, forgotten and lost. The information was not conveniently put together in a history book before Fire & Blood, yet. So, the search of records mentioning dragon eggs would have been far likelier to uncover Bennifer’s order to Rego to inquire about the dragon eggs Elissa stole and her trail going cold after Pentos. What better way to try and find nearly 230 year lost dragon eggs believed to have been sold in Pentos (erroneously) than by hiring the man fabled in Pentos of finding out any secret, Varys? The man thieves sell to, before his partner returns it to the rightful owner for a fee. Even if Aerys II soon lost interest, Varys could have continued the search, if only out of professional pride. And once, he figured they were in Braavos, Illyrio’s job was to retrieve them. It took both just several years to complete the job.

The Dragon Eggs gifted to Daenerys at her wedding, by Tommy Patterson for Issue 3 of the A Game of Thrones comic adaption.

In the end, stolen or bought, Illyrio gifts the Targaryens dragon eggs that hatch “into chickens”, and therefore team Valyrio was an instrumental cog in the magical wheel for the return of Targaryen dragons.

And the fee?

“It is not a matter of gold or horses. This is bloodmagic, lady. Only death may pay for life.” (aGoT, Daenerys VIII)

“No,” Mirri Maz Duur said. “That was a lie you told yourself. You knew the price.”
Had she? Had she? If I look back I am lost. “The price was paid,” Dany said. “The horse, my child, Quaro and Qotho, Haggo and Cohollo. The price was paid and paid and paid.” (aGoT, Daenerys IX)

The Dagger Man

Varys is the one who deals with Littlefinger on page, not Illyrio. So, assessing the dynamics of both men from their different crime angles and methods helps gain clarity.

A lesser thief

“What treasury is that?” Littlefinger replied with a twist of his mouth. “Spare me the foolishness, Maester. You know as well as I that the treasury has been empty for years. I shall have to borrow the money. No doubt the Lannisters will be accommodating. We owe Lord Tywin some three million dragons at present, what matter another hundred thousand?”
Ned was stunned. “Are you claiming that the Crown is three million gold pieces in debt?”
“The Crown is more than six million gold pieces in debt, Lord Stark. The Lannisters are the biggest part of it, but we have also borrowed from Lord Tyrell, the Iron Bank of Braavos, and several Tyroshi trading cartels. Of late I’ve had to turn to the Faith. The High Septon haggles worse than a Dornish fishmonger.”
Ned was aghast. “Aerys Targaryen left a treasury flowing with gold. How could you let this happen?” (aGoT, Eddard IV)

Varys knows finances and money matters as well as Illyrio. He would not have been as successful in Pentos otherwise. Varys simply has a bigger passion for discovery, while Illyrio has a passion for the clink of gold. With so many spies and skill in reading ledgers, letters, books and papers, Varys must have been aware that Littlefinger was cooking the books, enriching himseelf with embezzlement and bribery, for many years. In other words, Varys allowed Littlefinger to steal.

Overall, it is to team Valyrio’s benefit that Tywin Lannister and the Iron Bank funded Robert’s bottomless money pit. In their eyes, House Lannister was banking on a temporary dynasty and would be poorer for it. Meanwhile the Iron Bank would have its due: when a dynasty cannot or does not pay, they back a rival.

When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones.(aDwD, Jon IX)

Indeed, once Cersei stopped repaying the loan to the Iron Bank, the Braavosi bank seeks out her rival Stannis Baratheon. Their envoy, Tycho Nestorys plods through snowstorms from Castle Black all the way to a tower in the Wolfswood at ice lakes some way from Winterfell and have Stannis sign the crown’s loan contract with his own blood as well as giving him an open credit line to get whatever he needs to take the Iron Throne.

When Cersei decides Westeros should have its own bank and that it should be a Lannister bank, combined with Tywin the main lender to the crown, George is framing House Lannister into putting a different kind of target on their back. The Iron Bank deals with their own financial rivals via Faceless Men. Or at least it is heavily suggested with what befell the Rogare bank of Lys.

In the end, it was Larra Rogare and her wealthy, ambitious family who helped break the power of the regents and, almost certainly, that of Lord Peake. It was an inadvertent role they played, however, caught up as they were in the Lyseni Spring. This was a time when the Rogare Bank waxed greater than the Iron Bank, (tWoIaF – The Targaryen Kings: Aegon III)

Larra Rogarde had been wed by her father to Viserys Targaryen, the youngest son of Rhaenyra and Daemon Targaryen, and brother to Aegon III Targaryen. During the Dance of the Dragons, Prince Jacaerys Velaryon decided that his half-brothers, Aegon and Viserys would be fostered in Pentos for their own safety. But their ship was captured by the Triarchy sailing into the Gullet to break the Velaryon blockade of Blackwater Bay. Aegon escaped on his young dragon Stormcload, while Viserys who only had his dragon egg was captured. Viserys ended up with Bambarro Bazanne, a magister of Lys. When Bambarro died with a large debt, the Rogare bank seized all of his possessions, including Viserys. Once Lysandro Rogare realized who Viserys was, he wed him to his youngest daughter, Larra. With Lysando’s brother Drazenko as consort of the Princess of Dorne, House Rogare of Lys had wed into two different royal families – Dorne was a separate kingdom from the rest of Westeros at the time.

Alyn Velaryon and Aliandre Martell, by Martina Fackova

And then Lysandro Rogare and Drazenko died within a day of each other, a year after Viserys returned to Aegon III’s court. Drazenko choked on a piece of bacon at Sunspear, and Lysandro drowned when his barge sank in Lys. That these were hits by Faceless Men was a widely claimed rumor. When it became known that Lysandro’s son and heir, Lysaro, embezzled the money of the Rogare bank, a bank run followed and Lysaro was scourged to death at the Lysene Temple of Trade. Though Lysaro’s siblings survived, the family never recovered. Not even Larra would experience being queen to a king, for four years later, she separated from him to return to Lys. She died sixteen years before Viserys II inherited the Iron Throne from his nephew Baelor the Blessed.

What befell the Rogare Bank is used to build a parallel for Illyrio’s hypothesized intention for a run on the Iron Bank. Instead I believe it is a parallel for the financial demise of House Lannister. Yes, the Iron Bank could come under pressure, because of Dany’s increasing global economical disruption as she brings down the slave trade. Even if Braavos nor its merechants deal directly in slave trade, they do trade with the other Free Cities whose economy relies on it. The Iron Bank is not just a private bank owned by one family or house, however. It compares far more to a National Bank, an updated version of a treasury, while the Faceless Men compare to the CIA. Yes, they both have private clients, but they serve a Braavos security interest primordially. And both own lands and other assets such as grain and crops abroad, not just gold. These are real assets, especially during a lean, long winter.

If Illyrio were to organize a bank run on the Iron Bank, the Faceless Men would kill Illyrio’s Aegon Targaryen with great pleasure for a groat in retaliation, even if the Iron Bank was insolvable. A Faceless Man would have murdered King Joffrey, Queen Cersei and Tywin Lannister, because a girl threw an axe at a cage in flames. And Illyrio would know this. Given his affection displayed for Aegon – when Illyrio says goodbye to Tyrion – I do not believe Illyrio would risk Aegon’s life. More, Illyrio and the World Book has declared several times that Pentoshi have learned that trading gifts is a cheaper way to deal with a threat than war. Even if Illyrio thirsts for revenge, Pentoshi economy also relies on Braavosi traders.

So, no I do not believe team Valyrio’s intent is to make the Iron Bank fail, but provoke it in welcoming a restoration of the Targaryen dynasty, without needing exasberate the loan the way Stannis has to. Illyrio managed to acquire enough (creative) resources for both Aegon and Viserys. That gives Illyrio leverage to say “I can shore up the money to return the loans you lost, but for a fee – lift the military prohibitions on Pentos. Your choice.” In other words, team Valyrio foresaw the Iron Bank would want to replace the spenthrift Robert and embezzling Littlefinger, exactly the Iron Bank does with Cersei and Stannis. They simply intended for the backed alternative to be their Targaryens, not Stannis.

I do understand that Varys’s non-reaction may give the impression that Littlefinger is or was conspiring with them. Varys not interfering with Littlefinger for so long is not evidence that Petyr Baelish works for team Valyrio though. We do have evidence though that Varys regards Littlefinger as a lesser thief – albeit useful – with no other interest than being rich, while keeping his biggest cheerleader happy (Lysa). We know this, because to Ned Stark, Varys has this to say about Eddard’s question whether Varys and Littlefinger are working together.

“Is this your own scheme,” he gasped out at Varys, “or are you in league with Littlefinger?”
That seemed to amuse the eunuch. “I would sooner wed the Black Goat of Qohor. Littlefinger is the second most devious man in the Seven Kingdoms. Oh, I feed him choice whispers, sufficient so that he thinks I am his … just as I allow Cersei to believe I am hers.”
“And just as you let me believe that you were mine. Tell me, Lord Varys, who do you truly serve?” (aGoT, Eddard XV)

Varys would rather wed the Black Goat of Qohor than actually be in league with Petyr Baelish. And along with his contempt for Littlefinger, Varys portrays himself as the top manipulator who plays everyone else. He feels superior to Littlefinger from every angle possible. And what did Varys do with petty, selfish and violent thieves in Pentos? Steal from them.

Jon Arryn

In Illyrio’s plan, I quoted how Varys implies to Tyrion in aCoK that Littlefinger helped Ned Stark, Stannis and Jon Arryn to the clues of Cersei’s twincest.

“[Stannis] accuses my brother and sister of incest. I wonder how he came by that suspicion.”
“Perhaps he read a book and looked at the color of a bastard’s hair, as Ned Stark did, and Jon Arryn before him. Or perhaps someone whispered it in his ear.” The eunuch’s laugh was not his usual giggle, but deeper and more throaty.
“Someone like you, perchance?” […]”If you were not this whisperer, who was?”
“Some traitor, doubtless.” Varys tightened the cinch.
“Littlefinger?”
“I named no name.” (aCoK, Tyrion IV)

Varys does not confirm that Littlefinger whispered it to Stannis. He does allow Tyrion to believe it though. And Varys himself may believe it. He knows Littlefinger helped Ned Stark chase Jon Arryn’s trail and that as Lysa Arryn’s favourite, Petyr Baelish was trusted by Jon Arryn.

We can rule out Varys himself. He never whispered a word of it to Ned Stark. He never even broached the subject until Eddard was in a black cell. And then he berated Ned for confronting Cersei over it. Varys admits to Tyrion though, he was aware for years that Cersei’s children are not Robert’s.

“Am I suspected? It was not me.”[…]“No. But why should I betray a secret I have kept so long? It is one thing to deceive a king, and quite another to hide from the cricket in the rushes and the little bird in the chimney. […]” (aCoK, Tyrion IV)

Varys had very good reasons to keep it a secret for so long. Robert’s only sons would be bastards on prostitutes and tavern wenches, except for the acknowledged Edric Storm. None of these could rally a highborn lord against a returned Targaryen dynasty. While Edric Storm would be persuaded to bend the knee to Viserys III or Aegon VI in return for being Lord of Storm’s End. Stannis only had the one daughter with greyscale scars on her face and Renly had none. Robert’s legacy was weak if not non-existing, because of Cersei’s twincest.

Cersei had made it obvious when her three golden haired children compared to Robert’s black haired bastards (born across the realm). On paper, it was the perfect scandal to turn the tables on any Baratheon or Lannister who dared to claim the invading Aegon to be a fraud. Varys could produce six to eight of Robert’s sixteen bastards. Not only were they taken care of. He kept tabs on them.

Not so incidentally, before Tyrion discusses Stannis with Varys, Cersei’s small council (in Varys’s absence) discussed such a counter strategy to tackle Stannis’s letters claiming Joffrey is not Robert’s son.

“A tale of somewhat the same nature, perhaps. But more easily believed. Lord Stannis has spent most of his marriage apart from his wife. Not that I fault him, I’d do the same were I married to Lady Selyse. Nonetheless, if we put it about that her daughter is baseborn and Stannis a cuckold, well . . . the smallfolk are always eager to believe the worst of their lords, particularly those as stern, sour, and prickly proud as Stannis Baratheon.” (aCoK, Tyrion III)

Now, envision what Illyrio and Varys planned on – three survivors of the incestuous Targaryens who all look their part or Lannister blond Baratheons. The Faith and smallfolk only ever accepted the Targaryens as having the innate birthright to be the exception on incest closer than a second cousin. Every child between a Baratheon and Targaryen was black haired: Steffon and Jocelyn Baratheon, and Rhaenys Targaryen. “If Targaryen features could not withstand Baratheon cole, then Lannister gold certainly could not”, would be the easiest propaganda to whisper across the realm by septons and ravens. And nothing would have been more crippling to Robert Baratheon’s alliance with the Lannisters than the claim that Cersei cuckolded him with her Kingslayer twin. Even if Tywin and Cersei would have called it slander, Robert would have recognized the truth of it, had he lived. That is why Varys wanted to keep Robert alive.

Once more though, Stannis ended up doing what team Valyrio intended to. And he failed, because he was disliked by most Lords, and he only had Edric Storm at hand. Cersei already had Robert’s bastards in King’s Landing butchered, just as she once had Robert’s twin babies in Lannisport killed (according to Littlefinger). Of the several bastards living in King’s Landing, only Gendry managed to survive Slynt’s Gold Cloaks.

So, Varys intended for the truth about Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen to come out, just not before Viserys

  • welcomed Aegon as the nephew who miraculously survived;
  • recognized Aegon as heir, over Dany’s potential son;
  • had his Dothraki screamers and joined them with the Golden Company.

Illyrio told Viserys he might have to wait a few years before he could actually start his invasion with his army of Dothraki, based on Drogo’s travels to Vaes Dothraki and back. At the start of aGoT, Illyrio did not foresee an invasion of the Dothraki and Golden Company until early 299 AC. And when does Stannis send his letters from Dragonstone? Early 299 AC. Jon Arryn and Stannis uncovering the truth about Cersei’s children was too early.

So, who whispered into Stannis’s ear? Stannis would not trust Petyr Baelish. He considers him as corrupt as Varys and both completely devoid of morals. Compared to Stannis, Ned Stark is more trusting. He can barely interact with his two brothers or hide his contempt for Robert’s wanton ways or Renly’s superficial charm. Littlefinger and Stannis are complete opposites: Petyr owns three brothels, and Stannis outlawed them on Dragonstone and wanted to generalize this. The last thing Littlefinger ever wanted was for either Jon Arryn or Ned Stark to reveal the truth to Robert Baratheon. It would have been one of the major motive why Littlefinger used Lysa to kill Jon Arryn. If Littlefinger intended to set up Jon Arryn as he did with Ned Stark, he would have gone straight to the Lord of the Vale and not to Stannis first. But we know from Stannis himself that he involved Jon Arryn once he had his suspicions.

Melisandre, by Nicholas Elias

Neither Littlefinger, or Varys whispered it to Stannis. It was Melisandre who sought out Dragonstone and Stannis all on her own several years before aGoT.

Tywin to Tyrion: “Oh, Varys hears his whispers. Stannis is building ships, Stannis is hiring sellswords, Stannis is bringing a shadowbinder from Asshai. What does it mean? Is any of it true?” (aGoT, Tyrion IX)

“Varys told us some years past that Lady Selyse had taken up with a red priest,” Littlefinger reminded them. (aCoK, Tyrion III)

Mel uses visions in flames to convince Jon Snow she sees the truth and future both: the vision of the spears with the skulls, the grey girl on a horse fleeing towards Jon’s protection, and the knives in the dark after the arrival of a message. She had to do the same with the agnostic/atheist Stannis.

“I stopped believing in gods the day I saw the Windproud break up across the bay. Any gods so monstrous as to drown my mother and father would never have my worship, I vowed. In King’s Landing, the High Septon would prattle at me of how all justice and goodness flowed from the Seven, but all I ever saw of either was made by men.”
“If you do not believe in gods—”
“—why trouble with this new one?” Stannis broke in. “I have asked myself as well. I know little and care less of gods, but the red priestess has power.” (aCoK, Davos I)

And in the beginning, she used Selyse as in between, as we see in aCoK’s Prologue.

“Yes,” [Selyse] answered, “but if Renly should die . . .” Stannis looked at his lady with narrowed eyes, […] “Melisandre has gazed into the flames, and seen him dead.”
Cressen was horrorstruck. “Fratricide . . . my lord, this is evil, unthinkable . . . please, listen to me.” […]
“I have heard your counsel, Cressen,” Lord Stannis said. “Now I will hear hers. You are dismissed.” (aCoK, Prologue)

Stannis’s dismissal of Cressen to want to hear more from Selyse on what Mel predicts shows this is not the first time. And aCoK‘s prologue also showcases Stannis believes her visions and predictions enough to go certain lengths to prevent it from happening. Melisandre foresaw Maester Cressen would attempt to poison her at the feast. Stannis attempted to prevent Cressen having the opportunity, by leting him sleep through it.

The old man could only stop and stare. “Maester Pylos,” he said at last. “You . . . you did not wake me.”
“His Grace commanded me to let you rest.” Pylos had at least the grace to blush. “He told me you were not needed here.” (aCoK, Prologue)

When Cressen shows up nevertheless, Stannis even tells him he would not have him kill himself in Stannis’s service.

“Pylos will counsel me henceforth. Already he works with the ravens, since you can no longer climb to the rookery. I will not have you kill yourself in my service.”(aCoK, Prologue)

So, what truths and predicions did Mel whisper (via Selyse) to Stannis that caused him to become suspicious about Cersei’s children only around the end of the year 297 AC? Stannis did his marriage duty once or twice a year when visiting Dragonstone. The moment that Melisandre claimed that Stannis would become the true king, he would have started out skeptical, likely believing her a fraud. And how could he be Robert’s heir, when Robert had three children with Cersei? That is when Mel revealed that Cersei’s children were not Robert’s, and Stannis begins his own research in King’s Landing – rationally and independently. He involved Jon Arryn, because Robert would not have accepted such an awful truth from Stannis’s lips.  And then once Jon Arryn was dead, Stannis sailed to Dragonstone to learn what else Mel could see in her flames. And if Mel also predicted Robert’s and Ned’s death, her advice likely convinced Stannis to stay away from the capital.

Varys only ever knew Stannis to be an agnostic, rational man. Stannis believing in the predictions of a red priestess would sound absurd to him. Even Stannis trusting Littlefinger would seem more likely to Varys at the time he discusses it with Tyrion.

Jon and his son Robert Arryn, by Julianah Pinho

Did Varys know who actually killed Jon Arryn? We know for a certainty that Lysa Tully administered the tears of Lys to Jon Arryn: she confessed she did it on Petyr Baelish’s advice within Sansa’s hearing in aSoS.

“Tears, tears, tears,” [Lysa] sobbed hysterically. “No need for tears . . . but that’s not what you said in King’s Landing. You told me to put the tears in Jon’s wine, and I did. For Robert, and for us! And I wrote Catelyn and told her the Lannisters had killed my lord husband, just as you said.[…]” (aSoS, Sansa VII)

Varys correctly named the poison to Ned Stark, though he makes Eddard believe it was the conveniently dead Ser Hugh of the Vale. However, look a bit more closely at how Varys initially describes “the boy” who poisoined Jon Arryn?

“Some dear sweet friend who often shared meat and mead with him, no doubt. Oh, but which one? There were many such. Lord Arryn was a kindly, trusting man.” The eunuch sighed. “There was one boy. All he was, he owed Jon Arryn, but when the widow fled to the Eyrie with her household, he stayed in King’s Landing and prospered. It always gladdens my heart to see the young rise in the world.” The whip was in his voice again, every word a stroke. “He must have cut a gallant figure in the tourney, him in his bright new armor, with those crescent moons on his cloak. A pity he died so untimely, before you could talk to him …” (aGoT, Eddard VII)

Ser Hugh was not the sole one who owed all he was to Jon Arryn, who remained in King’s Landing after Lysa fled and prospered. Littlefinger prospered even more because of it than Ser Hugh ever did. Varys was not talking about Ser Hugh, when he described the boy. Varys always knew that Littlefinger instructed Lysa to poison Jon Arryn. He did make Ned Stark believe it was Ser Hugh, without actually saying so. Why?

Littlefinger revealed to Ned Stark who of Lysa’s household remained in King’s Landing: “a pregnant kitchen girl hastily wed to one of Lord Renly’s grooms, a stablehand who joined the City Watch, a potboy discharged from service for theft, and Lord Arryn’s squire“.

“Ser Hugh of the Vale,” Littlefinger named him. “The king knighted the boy after Lord Arryn’s death.” (aGoT, Eddard V)

Jory Cassel talks with each of them:

  • the serving girl alludes to Jon Arryn having read “more than was good for him“, and hints that Jon Arryn and Lysa Arryn may have been at odds with each other over Sweetrobin’s fostering.
  • the former potboy spills all the kitchen gossip: Jon was sending Sweetrobin to Dragonstone, took an interest in the breeding of hunting hounds, and he went to Tobho Mott’s together with Stannis to see Gendry.
  • Ser Hugh dismisses Jory Cassel, but he is willing to talk to the Hand in person.
  • the stable boy, turned Gold Cloak, talks well of Jon Arryn without revealing anything.

Jory had spoken to each of them in turn. Ser Hugh had been brusque and uninformative, and arrogant as only a new-made knight can be. If the Hand wished to talk to him, he should be pleased to receive him, but he would not be questioned by a mere captain of guards … even if said captain was ten years older and a hundred times the swordsman. . (aGoT, Eddard VI)

Now who arranged for each of their fates? The same man who told Ned Stark where to find them: Littlefinger. He helped or bribed…

  • the serving girl with a husband in Renly’s household.
  • the stable boy with a profitable job with the Gold Cloaks, under Littlefinger’s man Janos Slynt.
  • the recent knighted Ser Hugh with a large enough sum, with which he ordered new armor for the Hand’s tourney. It was not the armor that Jon Arryn was rumored to have bought, since Tobho tells Ned Stark that the Hand did not honor him with his patronage.

Littlefinger bribed three, but the potboy’s gossip could never be contained. The potboy’s tarnished reputation as a thief and never having exchanged a word with Jon Arryn would make it unlikely that he would be believed.

Why would Littlefinger reveal the potential witnesses he bribed into silence? To test who would talk and who would not. The serving girl hints at the trouble that led to Jon Arryn’s death, but refrains outright from revealing more, for the sake of her child likely. The stable boy reveals nothing, knowing it would be too easy he would end up dead by a fellow Gold Cloak while on duty. Only Ser Hugh was also arrogant enough to chance talking with Ned Stark. It would be too easy to list Ser Hugh against the violent Gregor Clegane and turn him into a patsy.

When Tyrion questions Pycelle about Jon Arryn’s murder, the Grand Maester confesses that he sent Maester Coleman away who attempted to save the Hand from the poison by purging him. That he did this to preserve Cersei’s secret. But Pycelle also names Ser Hugh the poisoner, insisting that Tyrion should ask Varys and Cersei both.

Yes,” he whimpered, “yes, Colemon was purging, so I sent him away. The queen needed Lord Arryn dead, she did not say so, could not, Varys was listening, always listening, but when I looked at her I knew. It was not me who gave him the poison, though, I swear it.” The old man wept. “Varys will tell you, it was the boy, his squire, Hugh he was called, he must surely have done it, ask your sister, ask her.”

Pycelle knows that Varys named Ser Hugh to Ned Stark and believes Varys’s claim, but also that Cersei knows a thing or two about Ser Hugh. The moment that Ser Hugh had shown he was willing to talk to Ned Stark in person, either Cersei or Littlefinger arranged for him to ride against Gregor Clegane, a brute who delights in teaching an arrogant, fresh knight in shiny new armor a deadly lesson.

So, why did Varys went along with Ser Hugh as the patsy? He had no credible and usable witnesses to provide the evidence against Littlefinger or Lysa. Jon Arryn’s widow was in the Vale, gathering an army. That left only the disgraced potboy and the serving girl, and each points to Lysa and her motive, but also Cersei’s secret.

Marillion highlights how Ser Hugh was a patsy too. The singer attempted to rape Sansa,  believing her to be the baseborn daughter of Littlefinger, Lysa’s fresh husband. Marillion was so arrogant that he believed himself untouchable, as had Ser Hugh. Having seen and heard too much, both Marillion and the upjumped squire Ser Hugh were about to sing the truth, and both became patsies for murdering Lysa and Jon Arryn respectively.

Lysa stumbled backward, her feet slipping on the wet marble. And then she was gone. She never screamed. For the longest time there was no sound but the wind.
Marillion gasped, “You . . . you . . .”
The guards were shouting outside the door, pounding with the butts of their heavy spears. Lord Petyr pulled Sansa to her feet. “You’re not hurt?” When she shook her head, he said, “Run let my guards in, then. Quick now, there’s no time to lose. This singer’s killed my lady wife.” (aSoS, Sansa VII)

Maidenheads and a dagger

A semi-canon source, the A World of Ice and Fire app, claims that Lysa and Littlefinger had an affair already in King’s Landing, before Jon Arryn’s murder. And since Petyr Baelish was Lysa’s acclaimed favourite, no doubt Varys may have had some theories on the lesser thief‘s real motive for urging her to kill Jon Arryn. But then Lysa’s sister Catelyn shows up unexpectedly by ship in King’s landing with a dragonbone handled dagger of Valyrian steel.

He eased himself down into a seat and put his hands together. “I wonder if we might trouble you to show us the dagger?”
[…] “What have you done to Ser Rodrik?” she demanded.
Littlefinger was lost. “I feel rather like the knight who arrives at the battle without his lance. What dagger are we talking about? Who is Ser Rodrik?”
“Ser Rodrik Cassel is master-at-arms at Winterfell,” Varys informed him. “I assure you, Lady Stark, nothing at all has been done to the good knight. He did call here early this afternoon. He visited with Ser Aron Santagar in the armory, and they talked of a certain dagger. About sunset, they left the castle together and walked to that dreadful hovel where you were staying. They are still there, drinking in the common room, waiting for your return. Ser Rodrik was very distressed to find you gone.”
“How could you know all that?”
“The whisperings of little birds,” Varys said, smiling. “I know things, sweet lady. That is the nature of my service.” (aGoT, Catelyn IV)

While Catelyn may have been flabbergasted, because she tried to be discrete, the rereader would be less surprised that Ser Rodrik could not just come and interrogate the master-at-arms of the red keep’s armory over a Valyrian steel dagger without Varys learning of it within the hour.

Valyrian steel dagger, by Lucas Durham for Fantasy Flight Games

Littlefinger tells part truth and lie. The dagger did belong to him until the tourney of Joffrey’s name day early 298 AC.

“I would have told you that there was only one knife like this at King’s Landing.” […] “It’s mine.” […] “Until the tourney on Prince Joffrey’s name day,” he said, crossing the room to wrench the dagger from the wood. “I backed Ser Jaime in the jousting, along with half the court.” Petyr’s sheepish grin made him look half a boy again. “When Loras Tyrell unhorsed him, many of us became a trifle poorer. Ser Jaime lost a hundred golden dragons, the queen lost an emerald pendant, and I lost my knife. Her Grace got the emerald back, but the winner kept the rest.”

But he lies that Tyrion bet against Jaime (a no-no) in a joust and won the dagger, while in fact Robert won the dagger.

“Who?” Catelyn demanded, her mouth dry with fear. Her fingers ached with remembered pain.
“The Imp,” said Littlefinger as Lord Vary watched her face. “Tyrion Lannister.” (aGoT, Catelyn IV)

Varys never corrects Littlefinger’s lie to either Ned Stark or Catelyn, but he would have unlikely been unaware that Robert won the dagger. Given Varys’s role when it comes to discovering lost or stolen goods, he brought Catelyn straight to the owner who lost it, Littlefinger. Varys allowed Littlefinger’s lie, because it protected king Robert Baratheon. Because Varys had Catelyn meet with Littlefinger, he prevented Ser Aron Santagar from seeing it. The master of arms would have recognized it as a recent acquisition of the king.

That Robert’s dagger was important enough for Catelyn to take a ship from White Harbor to King’s Landing in secrecy with just Ser Rodrik, all to discover its owner, would make Varys fear that the truth might have devestating consequences, even war, at the wrong time. Varys rarely allows dangerous truths to be relayed to someone ahead of him.

Littlefinger sauntered over to the table, wrenched the knife from the wood. “The accusation is treason either way. Accuse the king and you will dance with Ilyn Payne before the words are out of your mouth. The queen … if you can find proof, and if you can make Robert listen, then perhaps …” (aGoT, Eddard IV)

Varys was not going to allow that dagger to lead to an accusation against the king, without knowing what had occurred at Winterfell, or how the king’s dagger ended up with Catelyn. She never told Varys about the catspaw sent to kill Bran, but she repeated it to Ned Stark in the presence of Littlefinger, whom she told off page before already.

So he listened, and she told it all, from the fire in the library tower to Varys and the guardsmen and Littlefinger. And when she was done, Eddard Stark sat dazed beside the table, the dagger in his hand. […] “Very well,” he said, thrusting the dagger into his belt. “You spoke of Varys. Does the eunuch know all of it?”
“Not from my lips,” Catelyn said. “You did not wed a fool, Eddard Stark. But Varys has ways of learning things that no man could know. He has some dark art, Ned, I swear it.” (aGoT, Eddard IV)

Varys’s little birds could have overheard either occassion.

“The fools tried to kill his son, and what’s worse, they made a mummer’s farce of it. He’s not a man to put that aside. I warn you, the wolf and lion will soon be at each other’s throats, whether we will it or no.” […] “Littlefinger … the gods only know what game Littlefinger is playing. Yet Lord Stark’s the one who troubles my sleep. He has the bastard, he has the book, and soon enough he’ll have the truth. And now his wife has abducted Tyrion Lannister, thanks to Littlefinger’s meddling.” (aGoT, Arya IV)

So, why did Littlefinger implicate Tyrion? Lysa had already accused the Lannisters having murdered Jon Arryn, with her secret message hidden inside a box of a Myrish looking glass. At the Eyrie, Lysa claims that she wrote it to warn them away from King’s Landing. This is likely true for Lysa. She would expect Catelyn to go to King’s Landing with Ned Stark, just like she did with Jon Arryn. But Lysa would not want Catelyn to live around Littlefinger, while she was separated from him in the Vale. Nor would she have wanted a war that Catelyn and Ned Stark might drag her into. She is pretty freaked out about Catelyn showing up at the Eyrie with Tyrion.

But Lysa’s motive does not have to align with Littlefinger. Petyr would expect Ned Stark to seek justice for Jon Arryn. He knew that Lord Stark fell out for a while with Robert over Lannisters slaughtering babies. He knew the Warden of the North would have executed the last Mormont in the male line over selling poachers as slaves. That Ned would not be warned away from Lysa’s accusation. It would motivate Ned Stark personally, if a king’s command would not suffice. And what better way to remain under the radar of Ned’s investigation than pointing the way towards Cersei’s treason and setting up the Lannisters as the conspirators behind Jon Arryn’s murder. Of course, Littlefinger could not foresee Jaime and Cersei would be play into his set up of them so well by throwing the Hand’s son from a tower in his own home, or Joffrey sending a catspaw to assassinate comatose Bran with a Valyrian steel dagger, once owned by Littlefinger.

Tyrion Lannister, by Aleksander Karc for Fantasy Flight Game

Without knowing himself what happened that resulted in Bran’s fall, Littlefinger had to keep suspicion on the Lannisters. And with the queen, Jaime and Ned Stark so close to the city, Petyr picked the “safest” Lannister: Tyrion had the least power and was despised by both Cersei or Tywin. Tyrion was not even around to defend himself against an accusation, but visiting the Wall. Maybe Petyr hoped Tyrion might be apprehended by the Northerners the moment passed Winterfell again. By accusing Tyrion, Littlefinger kept suspicion on the Lannister siblings as well as bought himself time to gain control of the narrative and if possible get rid of the evidence – the dagger.

“This?” Littlefinger flipped the knife casually end over end. “A sweet piece of steel, but it cuts two ways, my lord. The Imp will no doubt swear the blade was lost or stolen while he was at Winterfell, and with his hireling dead, who is there to give him the lie?” He tossed the knife lightly to Ned. “My counsel is to drop that in the river and forget that it was ever forged.” (aGoT, Eddard IV)

Cat and Petyr, by joscomie.deviantart.com

I do suspect that Littlefinger expected (and hoped) that Ned Stark would take his wife along to King’s Landing. He may have hoped to have as much an affair with Catelyn as he had with Lysa. Petyr Baelish did not just brag openly that he had the maidenheads of both sisters. He truly believed it, even though in reality it was Lysa each time.

Tyrion cocked his head. “Why, every man at court has heard him tell how he took your maidenhead, my lady.” […] “And you are truly a fool, Lady Stark. Littlefinger has never loved anyone but Littlefinger, and I promise you that it is not your hand that he boasts of, it’s those ripe breasts of yours, and that sweet mouth, and the heat between your legs.” (aGoT, Tyrion IV)

Petyr Baelish to Sansa “You are old enough to know that your mother and I were more than friends. There was a time when Cat was all I wanted in this world. I dared to dream of the life we might make and the children she would give me . . . but she was a daughter of Riverrun, and Hoster Tully. Family, Duty, Honor, Sansa. Family, Duty, Honor meant I could never have her hand. But she gave me something finer, a gift a woman can give but once.” (aSoS, Sansa IV)

Lysa to Sansa: “You enticed him, just as your mother did that night in Riverrun, with her smiles and her dancing. You think I could forget? That was the night I stole up to his bed to give him comfort. I bled, but it was the sweetest hurt. He told me he loved me then, but he called me Cat, just before he fell back to sleep.” (aSoS, Sansa VII)

The updates by raven from Winterfell after Bran’s fall would have corrected Petyr Baelish from the notion that Catelyn would join the new Hand in King’s Landing soon enough. And then, Varys comes to him with the news of Catelyn being in town: he fears she might distrust him. She knew Littlefinger as a boy though and he is a trusted friend of her sister Lysa. She might be better at ease if Littlefinger would meet with her first? 

“Nothing happens in this city without Varys knowing. Ofttimes he knows about it before it happens. He has informants everywhere. His little birds, he calls them. One of his little birds heard about your visit. Thankfully, Varys came to me first.”
“Why you?”
He shrugged. “Why not me? I am master of coin, the king’s own councillor. Selmy and Lord Renly rode north to meet Robert, and Lord Stannis is gone to Dragonstone, leaving only Maester Pycelle and me. I was the obvious choice. I was ever a friend to your sister Lysa, Varys knows that.” (aGoT, Catelyn IV)

Realize too that Varys refrained from mentioning the dagger to Littlefinger beforehand. Hence, Petyr agreed eagerly, in the hopes of meeting Catelyn and having a private moment with her. He behaves overly familiar towards Catelyn as if they have a shared secret about their mutual desires.

“You were not mistreated, I trust,” he said after they had gone. “I gave firm instructions.” He noticed her bandages. “Your hands …”
Catelyn ignored the implied question. “I am not accustomed to being summoned like a serving wench,” she said icily. “As a boy, you still knew the meaning of courtesy.”
“I’ve angered you, my lady. That was never my intent.” He looked contrite. […]
“How did you know I was in the city?” she asked him.
“Lord Varys knows all,” Petyr said with a sly smile. “He will be joining us shortly, but I wanted to see you alone first. It has been too long, Cat. How many years?”
Catelyn ignored his familiarity. There were more important questions. […] “Does Varys know about …”
“Lord Varys knows everything … except why you are here.” (aGoT, Catelyn IV)

And when Catelyn asks whether “Vary knows about ….”, Petyr prevents her from completing her sentence. While Catelyn likely wished to allude to Littlefinger’s dueling challenge of Brandon Stark, Littlefinger would have believed she alluded to giving him her maidenhead. He also dismisses Cat’s marriage as only one of being true to her family’s words, as a duty. He does not believe she could actually loves her husband.

He lifted an eyebrow. “Why are you here?”
“A wife is allowed to yearn for her husband, and if a mother needs her daughters close, who can tell her no?”
Littlefinger laughed. “Oh, very good, my lady, but please don’t expect me to believe that. I know you too well. What were the Tully words again?” […] “Family, Duty, Honor,” he echoed. “All of which required you to remain in Winterfell, where our Hand left you. No, my lady, something has happened. This sudden trip of yours bespeaks a certain urgency. I beg of you, let me help. Old sweet friends should never hesitate to rely upon each other.” (aGoT, Catelyn IV)

No doubt, Varys was listening in, from the other side of the door. It gives him firsthand knowledge on whether Catelyn was a fool for Littlefinger like Lysa. Cat’s emotional distance and coolness towards Petyr, even in private would have informed Varys enough that Catelyn did not return Littlefinger’s feelings. At this point, he knocks to interupt Petyr from soliciting lady Stark in this manner again.

There was a soft knock on the door. “Enter,” Littlefinger called out. (aGoT, Catelyn IV)

The interesting thing is that Littlefinger managed to make Varys believe that the catspaw’s attempt to kill Bran was orchestrated by the Lannisters, a mummer’s farce, even though he knows the dagger was not won by Tyrion. And the manner in which Petyr mooned after Catelyn would have made Varys wonder why Littlefinger would push for war between the Starks and the Lannisters. While Varys begins to realize that the knife punk and lesser thief had begun to play a game beyond the scope of self enrichment, it takes even him by surprise eventually. What follows is a game of agents and recruits, muddled by the wildcard, Joffrey Baratheon. I will tackle that in a follow-up essay.

Conclusion

In essence, Varys, Illyrio and Littlefinger grew up as lowborn street kids, starting out with nothing, surviving on crime. They clawed their way not just to the financial top, but into positions of legal power. And I argue that dismissing or ignoring these facts for Varys and Illyrio, while trying to turn them into descendants of Targaryens or Blackfyres, will confuse the reader when it comes to understanding how and why they operate as they do, who their agents or pawns are, and what their next moves might be. When you see them as yellow street tomcats in the seat of power though, we gain much and more clarity.

I started out by differentiating team Valyrio versus Littlefinger by their basic crime, rather than whatever bloodline they come from. Team Valyrio is in the business of ‘fencing’ while Petyr Baelish is that of felony murder and racketeering. Varys and Illyrio prey on the felons and thieves to return what was stolen to the rightful owner for a fee. Knife throwing Littlefinger preys on innocence, robbing, murdering, bribing, extorting, lying and fucking his way up. In other words, Petyr Baelish is what team Valyrio preys on. And Petyr’s path never required a financial backer, only a promotor who opened doors for him, Lysa Arryn.

When we put the fencing-MO of Illyrio and Varys against the three dragon eggs that Illyrio gifted Daenerys Targaryen, as well as the lost three dragon eggs that Elissa Farman stole from Dragonstone near 250 years before, we come to a strong argument for those to be three and the same. It was not Illyrio’s job to find them, but Varys’s. It may even be argued that the Mad King contacted and hired Varys from Pentos to help him find the eggs that Elissa Farman stole, at a time Aerys II was searching for whichever dragon egg he could get his hands on in the hope to hatch them. Where the Mad King only knew part of Farman’s trail going cold after Pentos, Varys came across the same sources that would lead to the true story of the theft published in-world recently in Fire & Blood by Arch Maester Gyldain. It just took Varys and Illyrio longer than Aerys II lived.

When we jump in time to a few years before the start of the series we get a glimpse of the biggest (and still ongoing) heist on the Crown of Westeros: the lions are stealing a dynasty of a usurper via twincest, and the mockingbird embezzles the treasury (including the lions’ gold). The street cats let it unfold as they believe it is to their benefit. The Baratheon dynasty would not survive beyond a generation, neither in children as well as political backing. And the bankruptcy of the Westerosi treasury may be recovered by Illyrio, who gets a deal with the Iron Bank: you back a Targaryen dynasty, and I will personally cover the loan, if you also lift limitations and prohibitions against defending ourselves.

What they did not account for was Melisandre. She arrived on Dragonstone and converted Stannis’s wife Selyse into believing her visions and claims about Stannis completely. During his rare and dutiful yearly visit of Dragonstone, Stannis learned of Mel’s claim that he is Robert’s true heir. What sounded as folly initially, was revealed to be possible when Mel whispered what she knew of the parentage of Cersei’s children. Returning to King’s Landing, Stannis confides in Jon Arryn about the suspicion that Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella were fathered by Jaime. He knows the Hand to be an honest and moral man: Jon Arryn attempted to remove the corrupt Janos Slynt from the command of the Gold Cloaks. Stannis could also trust that Jon Arryn would not move against the Lannisters before he had found and seen the evidence with his own eyes. And finally, the truth would make Robert resent Stannis less, if it came from the lips of Jon Arryn instead. And so they begin to investigate towards the end of 297 AC.

Lysa Arryn freaks out when she learns that Jon intends to foster Sweetrobin to Dragonstone. Littlefinger had a bone to pick still with Jon Arryn trying to remove his man Janos Slynt, possibly fears exposure, and advizes Lysa to poison her husband with the tears of Lys. He already foresees who he can best take the fall for it. Expecting that Robert would appoint Stannis as Hand, the Lannisters are the likeliest to come under suspicion. Robert does not appoint Stannis as Hand, however. Instead he wants Ned Stark and will bring him and his household south to King’s Landing. Littlefinger believes it may be his only chance to get Catelyn to court, so he could have an affair with the woman he desires over Lysa. He expects Ned Stark to mistrust the Lannisters and the Kingslayer, and uses that by having Lysa write a letter to create a false murder trail to an ugly truth: the Lannisters killed Jon Arryn because he was about to inform Robert that none of Cersei’s children are his. Meanwhile, Stannis returns to Dragonstone to consult with Melisandre, starting to believe she sees true. She predicts the death of Robert and his Hand before the end of the year and advizes him to prepare for Cersei planting Joffrey on the throne.

Lysa flees to the Vale, while Littlefinger ‘volunteers’ to remain in King’s Landing and make sure that nobody can uncover the truth of them plotting to murder Jon Arryn. Petyr repositions the four other remainers who can tell tales: the pregnant kitchen maid, the gosipping potboy, the stable boy and Jon Arryn’s squire Ser Hugh. Some of them he threatens, bribes or disgraces. Unlike Lysa, Catelyn will not join the Hand as his wife in King’s Landing. Some freak accident befell her son Bran with the Lannisters at Winterfell. And then Catelyn arrives secretly at King’s Landing, before her husband and the King et all. Not knowing about the dagger yet, when Varys seeks Littlefinger’s help, Petyr hopes to have a moment alone with Catelyn and come to a mutual agreement that she wed Ned Stark out of duty and honor for her family name, but in truth loves him.

Cat does truly love Ned Stark though and did not come for Petyr. She came to discover who owned this unique dagger. Varys brought them together, because he knew Petyr lost the dagger to Robert. In this way, he prevents Aron Santagar from seeing it and identifying it as Robert’s. He too is curious whether Catelyn reciprocates Littlefinger’s feelings and how the lesser thief works himself out of the dagger-situation. With Varys in the room, Petyr cannot but admit it was his for a long time. And then he lies that he lost it to Tyrion, the one Lannister not arriving in King’s Landing anytime soon to defend himself against the accusation. With some luck, the Imp never returns. Neither Cersei or Tywin would grieve him.

Ned begins to investigate Jon Arryn’s murder and comes to trust Littlefinger in helping him with that. Of the four other remainers of Jon Arryn’s household in King’s Landing, only Ser Hugh who was knighted by Robert is willing to talk to Ned Stark in person, and he would be the most informed and credible witness of the four. The upjumped squire is too arrogant than is good for him, though, and believes himself untouchable by Robert’s knighting of him. Cersei gets wind of Ser Hugh wanting to talk to Ned Stark and arranges for him to start the lists against the Mountain.

Illyrio’s Plan

(Top image: Illyrio Mopatis, by Jake Murray @Fantasy Flight Publishing)

“Which plan?” said Tristan Rivers. “The fat man’s plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns?” (aDwD, The Lost Lord)

From the moment that Illyrio appeared discussing war strategies beneath the red keep in aGoT, many have attempted to pinpoint what Varys and Illyrio are hoping to get out of all of their plans, what the motivations of both Varys and Illyrio are. Are they Targaryen loyalists? Or Blackfyres? Is Young Griff just Illyrio’s Valyrian looking son? Did he truly mourn over Viserys’ death? Or did he use reverse psychology on Viserys to get him to join with the Dothraki, knowing it would get him killed? And some suggest that Illyrio just wants to destroy the Iron Bank of Braavos so that Illyrio can become the planet’s moneylender. Are Varys and Illyrio one mind and unit, who have the same exact motivation? Or do they have differring interests?

While not all has been revealed yet, I think the chapter in which Jon Connington introduces Aegon to the Golden Company reveals certain aspects of the plan for us to at least reconstruct the plan as far as Aegon, Viserys and Daenerys goes from the start of the aSoIaF series. Meanwhile the history of Pentos sheds a light on how Illyrio must go about it.

And this essay comes with the warning that I treat the little information we do have on Illyrio’s and Varys’s past at face value. This was an exercise to make sense of Illyrio’s past before aGoT and the series’ timeline into a coherent storyline, character motivation and plan if I assumed that neither Varys or Illyrio are Blackfyre or Targaryen descendants, and that Aegon is indeed Aegon Targaryen. While I do have to fill in some gaps for uncomfirmed necessary data, I find it is possible for Illyrio’s motivation and plan to be consistent within those restrictions. And if the plot (past and present) remains consistent and can hold up without Illyrio being a Blackfyre or Targaryen, without being Aegon’s true father, then it becomes a valid alternative to those secret identity theories.

Aegon and the Golden Company

Tristan Rivers reveals Illyrio’s military plan at the start of the series and how it changed over time, because of circumstances.

“First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver’s Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.” (aDwD, The Lost Lord)

Tristan Rivers confirms that Illyrio did want Viserys to acquire an army of Dothraki, and Viserys was to join the Golden Company with them. Now, I know that the sceptics of the veracity of this rely on several arguments against this. Have some patience though, as I will tackle the “issues”.

And one of the ways I will do this is by stressing Tristan’s wording –  Viserys and the Dothraki were to join the Golden Company, not the other way around. It is a seeming subtle difference, but very important.

The reveal of Jon Connington’s survival to raise Aegon and the blood contract between the Golden Company seems the first huge counter argument against Illyrio desiring Viserys’ survival of his travels with the Dothraki.

“The Golden Company marches toward Volantis as we speak, there to await the coming of our queen out of the east.”
Beneath the gold, the bitter steel. “I had heard the Golden Company was under contract with one of the Free Cities.”
“Myr.” Illyrio smirked. “Contracts can be broken.”
“There is more coin in cheese than I knew,” said Tyrion. “How did you accomplish that?”
The magister waggled his fat fingers. “Some contracts are writ in ink, and some in blood. I say no more.” (aDwD, Tyrion II)

When Tyrion and Illyrio travel through the hinterland of Pentos, the heartland of what once was Andalos, Illyrio reveals that the Golden Company is journeying to Volantis. aFfC already confirmed via Cersei’s chapters that the Golden Company had broken their contract with Myr, which was unheard of (see also Aurane, the Lord of Waters, Part 1 – The Set Up). They never broke a contract in history before (see also House Blackfyre). Illyrio also confirms the news that the Golden Company is marching for Volantis as Qyburn learns and tells at Cersei’s small council.

What we and nobody else knew yet in aFfC was that the Golden Company was moving because of an older contract, not one that was bought and paid for, but bound by blood. While Illyrio makes it appear as if this is purely for Daenerys Targaryen, later on Tyrion uncovers the true intended benefactor: the supposed son of Rhaegar Targaryen, Aegon VI Targaryen, introduced and disguised as Young Griff.

Aegon VI Targaryen, by dani2003kato

“Why,” said Tyrion, “if the stone men had taken Yandry or Griff or our lovely Lemore, we would have grieved for them and gone on. Lose you, and this whole enterprise is undone, and all those years of feverish plotting by the cheesemonger and the eunuch will have been for naught … isn’t that so?” […] “The blue hair makes your eyes seem blue, that’s good. And the tale of how you color it in honor of your dead Tyroshi mother was so touching it almost made me cry. Still, a curious man might wonder why some sellsword’s whelp would need a soiled septa to instruct him in the Faith, or a chainless maester to tutor him in history and tongues. And a clever man might question why your father would engage a hedge knight to train you in arms instead of simply sending you off to apprentice with one of the free companies. It is almost as if someone wanted to keep you hidden whilst still preparing you for … what? Now, there’s a puzzlement, but I’m sure that in time it will come to me. I must admit, you have noble features for a dead boy.” […] “Men will tell you that I am a kingslayer, a kinslayer, and a liar, and all of that is true … but then, we are a company of liars, are we not? Take your feigned father. Griff, is it?” The dwarf sniggered. “You should thank the gods that Varys the Spider is a part of this plot of yours. Griff would not have fooled the cockless wonder for an instant, no more than it did me. No lord, my lordship says, no knight. And I’m no dwarf. Just saying a thing does not make it true. Who better to raise Prince Rhaegar’s infant son than Prince Rhaegar’s dear friend Jon Connington, once Lord of Griffin’s Roost and Hand of the King?” (aDwD, Tyrion V)

After Jon’s failure to capture and kill Robert Baratheon at Stoney Sept during Robert’s Rebellion, the Mad King stripped him from his position as Hand, stripped him of his lands and exiled him. In Essos, JonCon joined the Golden Company under the command of Myles Toyne (283 AC) and rose to high ranks in the next five years. Then in 288 AC, the war chest of the Golden Company was stolen and Jon Connington took the blame for it and pretended to have died drinking himself to death in Lys.

Jon Connington might have been one of those successors [of Aegor Rivers] if his exile had gone otherwise. He had spent five years with the company, rising from the ranks to a place of honor at Toyne’s right hand. Had he stayed, it might well have been him the men turned to after Myles died, instead of Harry Strickland. But Griff did not regret the path he’d chosen. (aDwD, The Lost Lord)

Griff wondered how many of them knew who he was. Few enough. Twelve years is a long time. […] So far as most of them were concerned, Connington had drunk himself to death in Lys after being driven from the company in disgrace for stealing from the war chest. The shame of the lie still stuck in his craw, but Varys had insisted it was necessary. “We want no songs about the gallant exile,” the eunuch had tittered, in that mincing voice of his. “Those who die heroic deaths are long remembered, thieves and drunks and cravens soon forgotten.” […] Griff had gone along with the Spider’s scheme for the boy’s sake, but that did not mean he liked it any better. (aDwD, The Lost Lord)

This was Varys’s planned cover story concocted together with Ser Myles Toyne to have Jon Connington raise, tutor and train Aegon in deep secret.

Does [Harry Strickland] know? Griff wondered. How much did Myles tell him? Varys had been adamant about the need for secrecy. The plans that he and Illyrio had made with Blackheart had been known to them alone. The rest of the company had been left ignorant. What they did not know they could not let slip. (aDwD, The Lost Lord)

Varys and Illyrio knew they could trust Jon Connington, because the man not only had been Rhaegar’s best friend. He had been in love with Rhaegar and felt guilty over the crown prince’s demise. And Jon Connington did this for twelve years, before he returned with Aegon to the Golden Company, now led by Harry Strickland in 300 AC.

“Beneath the Gold the Bitter Steel”, by Urukki Saki, depicting the Golden Company and its current prominent members

Anyhow, we can conclude that in 288 AC, Varys recruited Jon Connington to supervise the young prince and made a contract writ in blood with Myles Toyne, the commander of the Golden Company. From the start, the Company was intended to be Aegon’s army, not Viserys’s. Dany remembers that Viserys once attempted to recruit the Golden Company.

Her brother Viserys had once feasted the captains of the Golden Company, in hopes they might take up his cause. They ate his food and heard his pleas and laughed at him. Dany had only been a little girl, but she remembered. (aDwD, Daenerys III)

In 297 AC, Dany is thirteen and had her moon cycles in order for her to be wed to Khal Drogo. By then she has lived almost half a year at Illyrio’s mansion, who took her and Viserys in. For her to be a little girl when Viserys feasted the Golden Company to take up Viserys III Targaryen’s cause, this must have occurred before Myles Toyne’s death in 296 AC. Meanwhile, this must have happened after they were driven out of Braavos. Willem Darry fell ill, when Dany was five, and slowly wasted away. Since, Dany was born in 284 AC, Viserys and her left Braavos after 289 AC. So, the contract with the Golden Company between Varys, Illyrio and Myles Toynce was already agreed to.

It would have been unlikely that Viserys would have even managed to get an audience with the Golden Company, before he reached adulthood (sixteen). Viserys was born 276 AC, so this feasting of the captains of the Golden Company would have happened between 292 AC and (early) 296 AC, or when Dany was between 8 to 11 years old.

So, when Jon Connington refers to the Golden Company as Aegon’s army, then this very much was the case.

Griff would be glad to go back to his own true colors too, though his once red hair had gone to grey. He clapped the lad on the shoulder. “Shall we go? Your army awaits your coming.”
“I like the sound of that. My army.” A smile flashed across his face, then vanished. “Are they, though? They’re sellswords. Yollo warned me to trust no one.”
“There is wisdom in that,” Griff admitted. It might have been different if Blackheart still commanded, but Myles Toyne was four years dead, and Homeless Harry Strickland was a different sort of man. (aDwD, The Lost Lord)

Aegon would have been between 10 or 14 at the time of Viserys’ meeting with Myles Toyne. On top of that Robert’s alliance with the Vale, Westerlands and the North was still too strong. Westeros was united behind Robert I Baratheon after the Greyjoy’s Rebellion of 289 AC, and his queen Cersei had given him three children. If the Golden Company’s contract was tied to Aegon Targaryen, and not the Targaryens as a whole, then Illyrio and Varys would have wanted to wait for the Golden Company to go public at least until Aegon would be considered an adult in the eyes of Westeros. So, not before 298 AC. That timing fits perfectly with Illyrio having arranged for Dany to be wed to Viserys, and set their war plans in motion for Viserys to acquire an army of Dothraki screamers.

Viserys III or Daenerys Targaryen

So, why am I certain that Illyrio wanted Viserys to join Aegon’s Company? Harry Strickland spells it out, when Franklyn Flowers expresses eagerness to agree to Aegon’s plan to sail for Westeros without Dany.

The captain-general looked as if someone had slapped his face. “Has the sun curdled your brains, Flowers? We need the girl. We need the marriage. If Daenerys accepts our princeling and takes him for her consort, the Seven Kingdoms will do the same. Without her, the lords will only mock his claim and brand him a fraud and a pretender. (aDwD, The Lost Lord)

Real or fake, Aegon Targaryen’s “death” was so legendary and well known, that anyone involved in the plot anticipated that lords would rather believe him to be a pretender, over being a true Targaryen. The plotters believed they required at least one undeniable Targaryen to join Aegon’s company to give him the perception of legitimacy. In 300 AC, Illyrio, Jon Connington and Harry Strickland believe Dany to serve that purpose. But by then the plans had altered, because of Viserys’s death. Illyrio’s first plan in 298 AC was for Viserys to extend the Targaryen legitimacy to Aegon. If the exiled king Viserys III Targaryen accepted Young Griff as his surviving nephew and heir, then so would the Seven Kingdoms.

For this legitimacy via Viserys III, Illyrio and Varys needed Viserys and Dany to wander every Free City in Essos for so many years. The Targaryen siblings’ identity and whereabouts needed to be well established and known, so that nobody would ever doubt Viserys’s acceptance of Aegon.

Drogo’s burial, by Magali Villeneuve

That Illyrio intended for Aegon to join the Targaryen claim along with Viserys is further symbolized by the three dragon eggs that Illyrio gifted Dany. In olden days, when dragons still lived, Targaryens were gifted a dragon egg at birth. Illyrio acquired three of such eggs, not one, not two, but three, because he wanted people to believe that there were three Targaryens when they learned of the tale of Dany’s wedding.

Magister Illyrio murmured a command, and four burly slaves hurried forward, bearing between them a great cedar chest bound in bronze. When she opened it, she found piles of the finest velvets and damasks the Free Cities could produce … and resting on top, nestled in the soft cloth, three huge eggs. Dany gasped. They were the most beautiful things she had ever seen, each different than the others, patterned in such rich colors that at first she thought they were crusted with jewels, and so large it took both of her hands to hold one. She lifted it delicately, expecting that it would be made of some fine porcelain or delicate enamel, or even blown glass, but it was much heavier than that, as if it were all of solid stone. The surface of the shell was covered with tiny scales, and as she turned the egg between her fingers, they shimmered like polished metal in the light of the setting sun. One egg was a deep green, with burnished bronze flecks that came and went depending on how Dany turned it. Another was pale cream streaked with gold. The last was black, as black as a midnight sea, yet alive with scarlet ripples and swirls. “What are they?” she asked, her voice hushed and full of wonder.
“Dragon’s eggs, from the Shadow Lands beyond Asshai,” said Magister Illyrio. “The eons have turned them to stone, yet still they burn bright with beauty.” (aGoT, Daenerys II)

A Bride for Dothraki Screamers

Now let us check this with the conversation between Viserys and Illyrio about when he could expect Khal Drogo to gift him an army of Dothraki in return for gifting Dany as bride.

“Best we get Princess Daenerys wedded quickly before they hand half the wealth of Pentos away to sellswords and bravos,” Ser Jorah Mormont jested.
[…]
Magister Illyrio laughed lightly through his forked beard, but Viserys did not so much as smile. “He can have her tomorrow, if he likes,” her brother said. He glanced over at Dany, and she lowered her eyes. “So long as he pays the price.”
Illyrio waved a languid hand in the air, rings glittering on his fat fingers. “I have told you, all is settled. Trust me. The khal has promised you a crown, and you shall have it.”
“Yes, but when?”
“When the khal chooses,” Illyrio said. “He will have the girl first, and after they are wed he must make his procession across the plains and present her to the dosh khaleen at Vaes Dothrak. After that, perhaps. If the omens favor war.”
Viserys seethed with impatience. “I piss on Dothraki omens. The Usurper sits on my father’s throne. How long must I wait?”
Illyrio gave a massive shrug. “You have waited most of your life, great king. What is another few months, another few years?” (aGoT, Daenerys II)

Dany’s wedding has been timelined by fans to have occurred either late 297 AC or early 298 AC, and it took the Dothraki half a year at least to travel to Vaes Dothrak. In other words, Illyrio did not expect or plan for Khal Drogo to return and gift Viserys an army before early 299 AC.

Looking like a princess, “Daenerys Targaryen” by /u/arenzio

To Illyrio, Viserys expresses doubts on whether a man like Drogo would want a “woman” that young. Dany is but thirteen years old when she meets and weds Khal Drogo.

“She is a vision, Your Grace, a vision,” he told her brother. “Drogo will be enraptured.”
“She’s too skinny,” Viserys said. […] He rested his hand on the hilt of the sword that Illyrio had lent him, and said, “Are you sure that Khal Drogo likes his women this young?”
“She has had her blood. She is old enough for the khal,” Illyrio told him, not for the first time. (aGoT, Daenerys I)

Illyrio uses the fact that Dany had started to bleed as reason to arrange the wedding, in the same way that Tywin does later on with Sansa when he weds Sansa to Tyrion. Later on, Illyrio reveals to Tyrion how Viserys intended to steal into Dany’s bedroom the night before her wedding to at least claim her maidenhead, if he could not have her as his sister-wife.

“Dothraki neither buy nor sell. Say rather that her brother Viserys gave her to Drogo to win the khal’s friendship. A vain young man, and greedy. Viserys lusted for his father’s throne, but he lusted for Daenerys too, and was loath to give her up. The night before the princess wed he tried to steal into her bed, insisting that if he could not have her hand, he would claim her maidenhead. Had I not taken the precaution of posting guards upon her door, Viserys might have undone years of planning.” (aDwD, Tyrion II)

If Illyrio planned years ahead, then the above implies, he invited Viserys and Dany to live under his roof from the time Illyrio expected her to bleed for the first time. This gave Illyrio the ability to prevent Viserys or others from wedding or bedding her, and ruin the wedding pact with a man of Illyrio’s choosing. Dany turned thirteen in 297 AC.

This is awfully young and dangerously so, not just in our society, but on Planetos as well. While the bodies of girls this young can show signs of fertility, their bodies are mostly still too undeveloped to either survive child birth or for their body not to suffer permanent damage. That is why when nobles wed a girl as young as Dany, the men are often advized to wait with the consummation of it. The main purpose of similar marriage deals in Westeros is to secure the alliance while preserving the girl’s maidenhead.

Illyrio though never urges Khal Drogo to delay the consummation, not through years of engagement or warning Drogo about the likelihood of Dany dying in child birth. The marriage deal between Viserys and Khal Drogo that Illyrio helped set up proves Illyrio had no concern for Dany’s physical well being, survival, or for her to remain fertile. Illyrio admits to this too.

The fat man grew pensive. “Daenerys was half a child when she came to me, yet fairer even than my second wife, so lovely I was tempted to claim her for myself. Such a fearful, furtive thing, however, I knew I should get no joy from coupling with her. Instead I summoned a bedwarmer and fucked her vigorously until the madness passed. If truth be told, I did not think Daenerys would survive for long amongst the horselords.” (aDwD, Tyrion II)

As soon as Dany was wedded and bedded by the Khal, Illyrio expected Drogo to be bound to keep his promise to gift Viserys his army at some point. That Illyrio saw Dany as no other purpose than to be of use as an expendable bride to form a military alliance is later proven when both Illyrio and Varys risk Dany’s life by setting up an assassination attempt. While they did give Jorah a head’s up over it, he saved Dany only in the nick of time. Now, I do not mean to go as far as to say that Illyrio desired her death throughout aGoT, just that her survival was not crucial for Illyrio’s first plan, as much as her maidenhead was to secure a military alliance with the Dothraki, or a threat to her life was to trigger Khal Drogo into wanting to invade Westeros.

Omens of War

It should also be noted that while Illyrio hosted Viserys and Dany in his home, at the other side of the narrow sea, Jon Arryn had begun to study the breeding of hounds after Stannis involved him in his suspicions about Cersei, as well as visiting Robert’s bastards.

Robert could never have known, Catelyn thought, or Cersei would have lost her head in an instant. “Lord Stannis,” she asked, “if you knew the queen to be guilty of such monstrous crimes, why did you keep silent?”
“I did not keep silent,” Stannis declared. “I brought my suspicions to Jon Arryn.” (aCoK, Catelyn III)

Varys was certainly aware that the alliance between Robert Baratheon, Jon Arryn and the Lannisters would crack. If the potboy can gossip about it, then Varys knew it too.

The potboy, now cordwainer, had never exchanged so much as a word with Lord Jon, but he was full of oddments of kitchen gossip: the lord had been quarreling with the king, the lord only picked at his food, the lord was sending his boy to be fostered on Dragonstone, the lord had taken a great interest in the breeding of hunting hounds, the lord had visited a master armorer to commission a new suit of plate, wrought all in pale silver with a blue jasper falcon and a mother-of-pearl moon on the breast. The king’s own brother had gone with him to help choose the design, the potboy said. No, not Lord Renly, the other one, Lord Stannis. (aGoT, Eddard VI)

Varys later confirms to Tyrion that Littlefinger pointed the way to discover the truth about Cersei’s children through Robert’s bastard with Jon Arryn and Stannis, aside from Ned Stark.

“[Stannis] accuses my brother and sister of incest. I wonder how he came by that suspicion.”
“Perhaps he read a book and looked at the color of a bastard’s hair, as Ned Stark did, and Jon Arryn before him. Or perhaps someone whispered it in his ear.” The eunuch’s laugh was not his usual giggle, but deeper and more throaty.
“Someone like you, perchance?”
“Am I suspected? It was not me.”
“If it had been, would you admit it?”
“No. But why should I betray a secret I have kept so long? It is one thing to deceive a king, and quite another to hide from the cricket in the rushes and the little bird in the chimney. Besides, the bastards were there for all to see.”
[…]
“If you were not this whisperer, who was?”
“Some traitor, doubtless.” Varys tightened the cinch.
“Littlefinger?”
“I named no name.” (aCoK, Tyrion IV)

By Varys-speak that is confirmation that besides Ned Stark, Littlefinger informed Stannis and Jon Arryn. Furthermore, Stannis regards Varys as the cause of the rot of the Mad King’s reign. He would not have trusted information coming from Varys.

“[…] I mean to scour that court clean. As Robert should have done, after the Trident. Ser Barristan once told me that the rot in King Aerys’s reign began with Varys. The eunuch should never have been pardoned. No more than the Kingslayer.” (aSoS, Davos IV)

This all gives us a better understanding of the conversation between Illyrio and Varys that Arya overhears in the tunnels beneath the red keep.

“The fools tried to kill his son, and what’s worse, they made a mummer’s farce of it. He’s not a man to put that aside. I warn you, the wolf and lion will soon be at each other’s throats, whether we will it or no.”
“Too soon, too soon,” the voice with the accent complained. “What good is war now? We are not ready. Delay.” (aGoT, Arya III)

Illyrio wants Varys to delay the civil war that Varys fears is coming soon.

“What would you have me do?” asked the torchbearer, a stout man in a leather half cape. […]
“If one Hand can die, why not a second?” replied the man with the accent and the forked yellow beard. “You have danced the dance before, my friend.”
[…]
“Before is not now, and this Hand is not the other,” the scarred man said as they stepped out into the hall. (aGoT, Arya III)

Since aDwD, we know that Illyrio was talking of Jon Connington, not Jon Arryn. Neither Varys and Illyrio had anything to do with the death of Jon Arryn. It was Lysa Arryn who poisoned her husband through Littlefinger’s manipulations.

“Perhaps so,” the forked beard replied, pausing to catch his breath after the long climb. “Nonetheless, we must have time. The princess is with child. The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born. You know how they are, these savages.” (aGoT, Arya III)

At the time of this meeting between Illyrio and Varys, Illyrio does not expect Khal Drogo and Viserys to return to Pentos before mid 299 AC. Obviously, in the minds of Varys and Illyrio, if Dany were to die or miscarry before the end of the third trimester, then Drogo could be triggered into acting sooner on behalf of Viserys. So, instead of keeping Dany’s pregnancy a secret, Varys informs Robert and the small council, and he supports a public assassination order that Illyrio would ensure would reach Vaes Dothrak, regardless of Robert’s wishes.

“If he does not bestir himself soon, it may be too late,” the stout man in the steel cap said. “This is no longer a game for two players, if ever it was. […] Delay, you say. Make haste, I reply. Even the finest of jugglers cannot keep a hundred balls in the air forever.” (aGoT, Arya III)

The former potboy mentions a fight between Jon Arryn and Robert Baratheon. It was likely Varys’s news that Illyrio had taken in Viserys and Dany. And Varys would have informed Robert of this at a moment of his own convenience, as we witness when he sent a rider to inform Robert of Dany’s marriage to Khal Drogo.

“Well, I did not bring you out here to talk of graves or bicker about your bastard. There was a rider in the night, from Lord Varys in King’s Landing. Here.” The king pulled a paper from his belt and handed it to Ned. (aGoT, Eddard II)

Here we see the nature of Varys’s game with Robert and the Hand. Since the Spider conspired with Illyrio, he knew very well when Dany would wed Khal Drogo. More, the timeline indicators imply that Dany’s wedding took place well before Robert even left for Winterfell. Varys sat on that info as Robert and the whole royal cart train made its way north, including a stay at House Darry (still secret Targaryen royalists). He sat on it during Robert’s extended stay at Winterfell. He sent a speed courier on horse, when Varys was certain Robert would be on the road south with Ned Stark. He could have sent a raven at any given time, much sooner. Instead, he waited until Robert was like to consult with his new Hand, Ned Stark, without any other voice of the Small Council to influence either two. The rider was a mummer’s farce.

It accomplished several things:

  • Varys appeared to be giving urgent spy information as soon as possible, while he actually delayed to get the news to Robert.
  • He bought time for Dany and the Dothraki to be well out of reach of potential assassins. Around the time that Robert got the news of Dany’s wedding, Dany would have been traversing through the Hills of Norvos or staring at the silver lemures in the forests of Qohor, if she was not already near the edges of the Dothraki Sea.
  • He tested how much Ned Stark was able and still willing to resist Robert’s will to assassinate both Viserys, Dany (and potentially Aegon in the future).

“Ser Jorah is now in Pentos, anxious to earn a royal pardon that would allow him to return from exile,” Robert explained. “Lord Varys makes good use of him.” […] “Varys tells me that spies are more useful than corpses,” Robert said. “Jorah aside, what do you make of his report?”
“Daenerys Targaryen has wed some Dothraki horselord. What of it? Shall we send her a wedding gift?” (aGoT, Eddard II)

The claim that Ser Jorah Mormont is “now” in Pentos is a falsehood: the khalasar broke camp the morning after her wedding and started the long trek to Vaes Dothrak. And as “urgent” Varys made this news appear, it does not appear that Stannis packing up and leaving for Dragonstone altogether was newsworthy. Eddard only discovers this when he arrives in King’s Landing. Lysa Arryn fleeing for the Eyrie is more newsworthy and cause of speculation than the king’s own brother decamping to Dragonstone is.

We witness Robert’s irrational anger over Rhaegar during Ned’s exchange with Robert over this tricky wedding news.

“Nonetheless,” Ned said, “the murder of children … it would be vile … unspeakable …”
“Unspeakable?” the king roared. “What Aerys did to your brother Brandon was unspeakable. The way your lord father died, that was unspeakable. And Rhaegar … how many times do you think he raped your sister? How many hundreds of times?” His voice had grown so loud that his horse whinnied nervously beneath him. The king jerked the reins hard, quieting the animal, and pointed an angry finger at Ned. “I will kill every Targaryen I can get my hands on, until they are as dead as their dragons, and then I will piss on their graves.”
Ned knew better than to defy him when the wrath was on him. (aGoT, Eddard II)

Nothing could rile up Robert as much as the news of either Viserys or Dany. And similar new must have been what caused Robert to roar at Jon Arryn in the weeks or months leading up to Jon Arryn’s death.

“You can’t get your hands on this one, can you?” [Ned] said quietly.
The king’s mouth twisted in a bitter grimace. “No, gods be cursed. Some pox-ridden Pentoshi cheesemonger had her brother and her walled up on his estate with pointy-hatted eunuchs all around them, and now he’s handed them over to the Dothraki. I should have had them both killed years ago, when it was easy to get at them, but Jon was as bad as you. More fool I, I listened to him.” (aGoT, Eddard II)

Most likely, Varys delayed giving the info of Illyrio hosting Viserys and Dany the same way he did with Dany’s wedding, and he would have cited the same source for it – Ser Jorah Mormont. The “spy” does not join Viserys and Dany until they meet with Khal Drogo and the marriage pact is agreed to, nigh half a year since Illyrio took them in. This would have been either late 297 AC or early 298 AC just a few weeks before Jon Arryn’s death.

We can conclude that before Illyrio urges Varys beneath the red keep to delay the foreseeable civil war, Varys had been doing this as much as he could for over a year.

Viserys’s intended survival
Viserys, by Renzo Gonzalez

So, if Dany was expendable, then Viserys was not. I already mentioned that Illyrio and the Golden Company expected Viserys to join Aegon’s Company in order to convince the Lords of Westeros that Aegon’s claim of identity was real. Tristan Rivers’ words  about the fat man’s first plan attest to the intended survival of Viserys. But so does the letter that Illyrio writes that warns Jorah just in the nick of time to save Dany from an assassination.

While most readers remember that Ser Jorah read the letter, most misremember it as being addressed to Jorah Mormont. It was in fact addressed to Viserys.

Under the hollow hummock of earth that was her home in Vaes Dothrak, Dany ordered them to leave her—all but Ser Jorah. “Tell me,” she commanded as she lowered herself onto her cushions. “Was it the Usurper?”
“Yes.” The knight drew out a folded parchment. “A letter to Viserys, from Magister Illyrio. Robert Baratheon offers lands and lordships for your death, or your brother’s.”
“My brother?” Her sob was half a laugh. “He does not know yet, does he? The Usurper owes Drogo a lordship.” This time her laugh was half a sob. She hugged herself protectively. “And me, you said. Only me?”
“You and the child,” Ser Jorah said, grim. (aGoT, Daenerys VI)

Both Robert Baratheon and Illyrio were unaware that Viserys had been crowned and killed by Drogo with molten gold. Jorah read the letter, because Viserys was not alive anymore to pick up the letter or read it himself. That Jorah ended up reading it, does not annull the fact that Illyrio attempted to warn Viserys himself of the risk of assassination. Therefore, Illyrio hoped to prevent at least Viserys from getting killed.

So, when Illyrio argued with Viserys to remain in Pentos and not journey with the khalasar to Vaes Dothrak himself, he was not using reverse psychology. Instead, he did indeed intend to keep Viserys safe in Pentos.

Her brother was miserable out here. He ought never have come. Magister Illyrio had urged him to wait in Pentos, had offered him the hospitality of his manse, but Viserys would have none of it. He would stay with Drogo until the debt had been paid, until he had the crown he had been promised. “And if he tries to cheat me, he will learn to his sorrow what it means to wake the dragon,” Viserys had vowed, laying a hand on his borrowed sword. Illyrio had blinked at that and wished him good fortune. (aGoT, Daenerys III)

Even Ser Jorah attests to this.

The knight looked after Viserys doubtfully. “Your brother should have bided his time in Pentos. There is no place for him in a khalasar. Illyrio tried to warn him.”
“He will go as soon as he has his ten thousand. My lord husband promised a golden crown.”
Ser Jorah grunted. “Yes, Khaleesi, but … the Dothraki look on these things differently than we do in the west. I have told him as much, as Illyrio told him, but your brother does not listen.” (aGoT, Daenerys IV)

So, yes, Illyrio wept tears when he learned of Viserys’s death.

“Magister Illyrio has protected me in the past. Strong Belwas says that he wept when he heard my brother was dead.”
“Yes,” said Mormont, “but did he weep for Viserys, or for the plans he had made with him?” (aSoS, Daenerys I)

And Ser Jorah is correct too that Illyrio wept for how he saw the plan he had been years in the making come to ruins, rather than grieving the death of Viserys as a person or even potential Targaryen king. To Tyrion, Illyrio also admits that he considered Viserys a vain and greedy fool, and very much the Mad King’s son.

“He sounds an utter fool.”
“Viserys was Mad Aerys’s son, just so. Daenerys … Daenerys is quite different.” (aDwD, Tyrion II)

So, why would Illyrio want the legally named heir Viserys III to serve as the badge of credibility for Aegon? Viserys would never have stepped aside for his alleged younger nephew to claim the throne. Why risk it?

Well, based on Illyrio’s flattery, generosity and acknowledging Viserys’s claim to the throne, it is quite clear that Illyrio wanted to reduce any of Viserys’s suspicion towards Aegon being a rival to him, before the two were to meet. And indeed, Viserys never suspected Illyrio of any plotting against his claim.

“Illyrio is no fool,” Viserys said. He was a gaunt young man with nervous hands and a feverish look in his pale lilac eyes. “The magister knows that I will not forget my friends when I come into my throne.” (aGoT, Daenerys I)

At every opportunity, Illyrio addresses Viserys as king.

“Look at her. That silver-gold hair, those purple eyes … she is the blood of old Valyria, no doubt, no doubt … and highborn, daughter of the old king, sister to the new, she cannot fail to entrance our Drogo.” (aGoT, Daenerys I)

When Viserys is ired, Illyrio is quick to bow subserviently.

Anger flashed in her brother’s lilac eyes. “Do you take me for a fool?”
The magister bowed slightly. “I take you for a king. Kings lack the caution of common men. My apologies if I have given offense.” He turned away and clapped his hands for his bearers. (aGoT, Daenerys I)

He reassures Viserys’s anxiety over the claim that many houses and smallfolk would want Viserys over Robert.

“We won’t need [Drogo’s] whole khalasar,” Viserys said. His fingers toyed with the hilt of his borrowed blade, though Dany knew he had never used a sword in earnest. “Ten thousand, that would be enough, I could sweep the Seven Kingdoms with ten thousand Dothraki screamers. The realm will rise for its rightful king. Tyrell, Redwyne, Darry, Greyjoy, they have no more love for the Usurper than I do. The Dornishmen burn to avenge Elia and her children. And the smallfolk will be with us. They cry out for their king.” He looked at Illyrio anxiously. “They do, don’t they?”
“They are your people, and they love you well,” Magister Illyrio said amiably. “In holdfasts all across the realm, men lift secret toasts to your health while women sew dragon banners and hide them against the day of your return from across the water.” He gave a massive shrug. “Or so my agents tell me.” (aGoT, Daenerys I)

Like Dany, the reader (and Ned Stark) doubts this initially. From the start of Robert’s ascension to the Iron Throne though, both Jon Arryn and Robert fear that certain Lords would support Viserys III Targaryen.

“[…] I had no wish to marry after Lyanna was taken from me, but Jon [Arryn] said the realm needed an heir. Cersei Lannister would be a good match, he told me, she would bind Lord Tywin to me should Viserys Targaryen ever try to win back his father’s throne,” (aGoT, Eddard VII)

Aurane , the Lord of the Waters, Part 2 – Sets To Work

(Featured Picture: Alyn Velaryon’s fleet by Franvegesart)

In Strange Sails, I pointed out how Aurane’s stolen dromonds and location at the Stepstones coincide quite conveniently with the expected arrival of Jon Connington, Aegon and the Golden Company at the Narrow Sea to begin their invasion of Westeros.

In Aurane’s Part 1 – The Set Up, I propose how and when Varys managed to recruit Aurane, after his capture in aCoK, but before bending the knee to Joffrey. I lay out the literary devices that George uses that support this scenario as well as delve into House Velaryon’s history, especially during and after the Dance to point out the motivation of a bastard of Driftmark is tied to loyalty to the blood of the Dragon. I also show that while Cersei may have picked Aurane for her council through impulsive decisions, Taena Merryweather’s manipulations helped her towards these decisions, and Varys would have known all along that Cersei would develop a crush on Aurane, because of her youthful limerance for Rhaegar Targaryen.

In this essay, I will analyse Aurane’s actions, choices and involvement tied to building those dromonds, once the small council agreed to build them. It covers the speed at which Aurane has them built and manned. At the very least it shows that George RR Martin has Aurane working day and night towards a deadline – the landing of the Golden Company.

Index

George’s Switcheroos

Before we get to into the details and rate at which Aurane has the fleet built, I wish to give you a perspective how George RR Martin juggled several fleet movements all at once in aFfC and aDwD.

Stannis’ fleet is non existent anymore. After the Battle of the Blackwater, most of the royal fleet has been reduced to rubble. Only Sallador’s fleet remained intact. Stannis and Salla sailed with it to Eastwatch to come to the Wall’s rescue. After aSoS, Salladhor Saan sailed from Eastwatch with Davos on board long enough before Cersei’s small council to give Davos enough time to row to Sweetsister at the Fingers of the Vale, meet with Lord Godric Borrell of Breakwater, sail back north into the Bite and end up as Lord Manderly’s captive. By Cersei’s small council, she received a letter from Lord Manderly about Davos showing up at his castle. Meanwhile, Salladhor’s fleet of twenty nine ships that set sail from Eastwatch are mostly lost to Storms in the Bite. He limps with the remainder supposedly to the Stepstones. Since he had Davos row by himself to Sweetsister, and before the two men respected one another, it is also clear that at this point Salla wants nothing to do with Stannis ever again. Stannis cannot commandeer the Night’s Watch fleet at Eastwatch either, since it sails to Hardhome where it is met with some disaster and remains stuck. That only leaves Lord Manderly’s secret fleet. Like the gun hanging on the wall, it certainly will come into play at some point, perhaps even under Davos’ command. But it is kept aside during Aegon’s invasion.

With less than a dozen warships left in King’s Landing, King Tommen – but in reality Cersei Lannister at the helm- only has one fleet they can rely on: the Redwyne fleet of the Reach. With two hundred war ships it is the largest fleet of Westeros. And in aFfC, George has it sail from the Arbor to King’s Landing so that Cersei can attempt to regain control of the Blackwater Bay, Dragonstone and Storm’s End. But by the end of aFfC, after the “capture” of Dragonstone, it begins its slow return to the Reach, out of the Narrow Sea, along the Stepstones. Since Aurane sails off with the new dromonds, the Iron Throne is left without maritime support and the Narrow Sea is entirely clear for naval invasion by the end of aFfC or about halfway through aDwD, which coincides with Jon Connington’s invasion and the later reports of strange sails.

The last of the main three fleets, the Iron fleet, is still intact at the start of aFfC, but at the wrong side of Westeros, namely the West. With Euron Greyjoy as newly elected king, this fleet alters from Balon’s tactics. Instead of raiding stony shores or attempt to retain castles, forts and fastholds in the North, the Ironborn take the Shield Islands and attack the Reach. This is the author’s legitimate plot to lure the Redwyne fleet out of the Narrow Sea and leave King Tommen and King’s Landing, a port, defenseless from the sea at the start of Aegon’s invasion.

After the Iron fleet has been succesful in setting up base on the Shield Islands to raid the Reach and lure the Redwyne fleet away from the Blackwater Bay and Stormlands, George allows for an interesting development.  Euron sends Victarion off with the Iron Fleet to Meereen to fetch the dragon queen. By the time that Aegon is being reported to capturing islands left and right all over the Narrow Sea, including Tarth, the Iron Fleet is effectively halfway the other side of the known world. It is important to make a distinction between the Iron fleet under Victarion’s command and the ironborn ships harrying the Reach. The ironborn fleet exists of the Iron Fleet (initially a hundred longships) and additional private, but smaller ironborn ships. While Euron’s Silence is a formidable galley, the other ironborn ships at the Reach are no match against the coming Redwyne fleet. The main reason the ironborn are so succesful in attacking various locations along the Mander and the seas between Oldtown all the way to Dorne is the fact that the Reach was left majorly defenseless. But George already puts the ironborn “privateer” attempts in perspective through Samwell’s POV – the Cinnamon Wind, a swan ship, outruns two of the three ironborn longships and repels the third with its archers. This means that the pirates, Salladhor and Aurane’s ships at the Stepstones are enough to prevent the privateer ironborn galleys from entering the Narrow Sea or meddle with naval tactics against King Tommen.

Another interesting switcheroo that George accomplishes relates to Victarion’s journey. Victarion sails the commercial and heavily trafficked shores of the Disputed Lands to Volantis, at the same time the Volantenese fleet sails in the other direction towards the Stepstones to deliver the Golden Company at the shores of the Narrow Sea on the Stepstones and Stormlands. We know they must have crossed each other, because of the timing of the elections in Volantis. Victarion takes in provisions for one day in Volantis. By then a drunken Volantis celebrates the results of the elections. This would have been the eleventh day after the elections started (it lasts ten days) and he left Volantis on the twelfth, not stomaching more than one day of reports about plans for the Volantenese fleet to attack Meereen and kill the dragon queen. But when Tyrion and Jorah consulted with the widow of the waterfront about passage to Meereen, the morning after the third day of the Triarch elections in Volantis, half of the Volantene ships raced to Volon Therys to sail the Golden Company to Westeros. The Selaesory Qhoran, on which Tyrion and Jorah sailed, departed from Volantis for Qarth two days after the meeting with the widow of the waterfront, or the sixth day of the elections. And thus Vic’s squadron of the Iron Fleet arrived in Volantis five days after Tyrion and Moqorro left, and a week after half of the Volantene ships sailed for Volon Therys to pick up the Golden Company. Certainly Victarion is thus fooled in believing the Volantenese fleet is at Volantis in its entirety when he makes his pit stop there.*

*This gives the Iron Fleet at least several weeks before the Volantenese fleet arrives at Meereen, or even the opportunity to attack them in open sea en route to Volantis, with the help of Moqorro’s flame watching.  

But how did Victarion not come across the Volantenese ships that sailed west to fetch and deliver the Golden Company before arriving at Volantis? This question is important, since Victarion has tried to add to the Iron Fleet by capturing whichever ship they came across since leaving the Shield Islands. The journey’s map of the Lands of Ice and Fire gives us a clue.

Journey of fleets between Stepstones and Volantis, from the Lands of Ice and Fire

Victarion’s journey are the red colored arrows, whereas Jon Connington’s are the purple ones. The Volantene fleet takes a different route than Vic’s. No matter how fast we may imagine either of these fleets to have sailed, those routes cross only in two points: the Stepstones and halfway between Lys and the Orange Shore. The two fleet only share a route close to Volantis, less than five days away. Since, the timing of either reaching the Stepstones is too disparate, we can rule that point out. That leaves only the point between Lys and the Orange Shore where they could have theoretically met, increasing the chances for both fleet to be unaware of one another. Notice how the Volantenese sailed close to the Orange Shore, along the islands, while Victarion’s Iron fleet sailed south of those. Alternatively, Victarion sailed north of Lys, while Jon Connington passed south of Lys. Either of these two differing routes before or after the potential point of crossing is sufficient to explain why Victarion never saw the Volantenese ships carrying the Golden Company, as he sailed for Volantis.

Lastly, I will also point out that Vic’s Iron Fleet has dwindled down to less than half of its original numbers by the time he reaches the Isle of Cedars. Though he manages to raise it back to sixty-one, the additional ships are merchants and fishing boats, not warships. Though he might still manage to pad the fleet with the Volantenese warships coming for Meereen (and learn about Aegon and the Golden Company from them).

This shows certainly authorial intent to weaken the Baratheon-Lannister dynasty’s maritime power in the Narrow Sea, while setting up various war fleet support for the remaining three Targaryen descendants – Aegon, Dany and Jon Snow. The sole one making a move for the Iron Throne in aDwD is Aegon. The sole available war fleet at the ready in the right location at the right time are Aurane Waters’ dromonds and Salladhor Saan’s galleys. Whomever believes Euron will succesfully come to Cersei’s aid in King’s Landing with an ironborn fleet as was portrayed in the show is gravely mistaken in my very honest opinion. Though I admit, his Silence may come to her rescue, I suspect the best location for this will be Casterly Rock, not King’s Landing.

Building and Manning a Fleet

In the same council where they agree to build new dromonds for the Iron Throne, Aurane also proposes that lords send their thieves and poachers to Aurane instead of the Wall.

Grand Maester Pycelle nodded ponderously. “I propose that we inform Castle Black that no more men will be sent to them until such time as Snow is gone.”
“Our new dromonds will need oarsmen,” said Aurane Waters. “Let us instruct the lords to send their poachers and thieves to me henceforth, instead of to the Wall.” (aFfC, Cersei IV)

It is certainly true that Aurane intends to man the new ships with a crew only loyal to him, not Cersei. But the timing of this also betrays that Aurane is planning ahead for a deadline in the near future. This is the same small council where they agreed with Aurane’s proposal to build new ships after all. We get a sense of Aurane’s haste behind the request for oarsmen, when we compare this to Jon Snow welcoming anyone, including wildlings and women at the Wall and gifting castles of the Wall to Stannis to be manned. And the comparison is apt, since the pool of labor that Aurane wishes to draw from is the same labor force that would otherwise land at the Wall. Jon’s motivation is the knowledge of the threat that the Others pose and the fear that the Others might attack the Wall rather sooner, than later. But Cersei’s small council has no knowledge yet of any impending naval or military threat at the heart of Westeros.

  • Stannis is stuck at the Wall and the last two castles he holds in or near the Crownlands are besieged, namely Dragonstone and Storm’s End.

As for the Lannister host, two thousand seasoned veterans remained encamped outside the city walls, awaiting the arrival of Paxter Redwyne’s fleet to carry them across Blackwater Bay to Dragonstone. Lord Stannis appeared to have left only a small garrison behind him when he sailed north, so two thousand men would be more than sufficient, Cersei had judged. (aFfC, Jaime II)

“Only a blind man could fail to see our war is all but won. Lord Tyrell has Storm’s End invested. Riverrun is besieged by the Freys and my cousin Daven, our new Warden of the West. Lord Redwyne’s ships have passed through the Straits of Tarth and are moving swiftly up the coast. Only a few fishing boats remain on Dragonstone to oppose Redwyne’s landing. The castle may hold for some time, but once we have the port we can cut the garrison off from the sea. Then only Stannis himself will remain to vex us.” (aFfC, Cersei IV)

Cersei’s small council chapter emphasises how most of them regard the war as having near won. The remaining rebels that hold out are all besieged and manned by low numbers. They are not even a threat anymore in their eyes. Nor do they perceive anybody else outside of Westeros as a threat. And yet, the bastard of Driftmark, Aurane is as hasty to man the as of yet non existing ships – because he is aware that the Golden Company is coming – as sure as the bastard of Winterfell is of the coming of the Others. And it is no coincidence that aDwD‘s epilogue where Kevan Lannister discusses the mysterious quick expansion of the Golden Company of the Stormlands and Tarth after Jon’s last chapter in aDwD with plenty of hints that the Others are at the other side of the Wall. (See They’re Here)

There is no obective need even to build the ships this fast. With the majority of the Redwyne fleet nearby, the rebuilding and expansion of the Royal Fleet could be done steadily, but at leisure. Sure, Cersei distrusts Paxter. But with Aurane as Admiral, who technically outranks Paxter Redwyne, Cersei solves that issue. She trusts Lord Redwyne enough to send him to Storm’s End and sail 2000 Lannister soldiers to Dragonstone, especially since his sons can be apprehended as hostages if needs be.

Let us now check how fast those dromonds get built. George actually gave us an estimate and comparison for this. By Cersei V, three dromonds are already nearing completion.

After [Lord Gyles,] Lord Waters arrived, to report that the first three dromonds were nearing completion and beg for more gold to finish them in the splendor they deserved. The queen was pleased to grant him his request. (aFfC, Cersei V)

The same day, Pycelle informed Cersei that according to Frey witnesses, Wyman Manderly beheaded Davos Seaworth, just like the small council in Cersei IV had decided he should. This would not be long after aDwD, Davos III. We can safely conclude that the order of Davos’ chapters match with Cersei’s as follows:

  • aDwD, Davos II: The Freys are already in White Harbor, having brought Wendel’s bones. So far, Manderly has refused to commit to the Crown before his last surviving son is returned to him. Davos arrives at White Harbor by nightfall on the Merry Midwife and notices the Lannister ship that brought the Freys. Davos requests to meet with Wyman Manderly at night, and per Davos III is not allowed to leave his guarded room.
  • aFfC, Cersei IV: At the small council, Cersei discusses Manderly’s demand for Wylis’ return. In yet another bird that arrives the very morning of the council – Lord Manderly claims that Stannis sent his onion knight to treat with White Harbor, took him captive and Manderly asks what he should do with him. Cersei answered immediately with the demand that Manderly should behead Davos.
  • aDwD, Davos III: From the windows of the chambers in Manderly’s castle that Davos is not allowed to leave, saw the Merry Midwife wait for his return for four days. A fortnight later, Ser Marlon Manderly guides Davos into Manderly’s hall, where he is asked to make his case and accused of treason. Manderly makes a public demand for Davos to be beheaded and have his hands taken, before supper. Davos is put in a lord’s cell at the Wolf’s Den. In Davos IV we learn, Manderly has the tarred head of a criminal put in public view along with fingerless hands, pretending it was Davos.
  • aFfC, Cersei V:  The Freys confirm that Manderly beheaded Lord Davos. The envoy of the Iron Bank has been kept waiting for a fortnight. Three of the new dromonds are nearing completion.
  • aFfC, Jaime III: Cersei sends Jaime to liberate Wylis Manderly from Harrenhal. Jaime leaves King’s Landing for Harrenhal, rescues Wylis and charges Red Ronnert with delivering Wylis Manderly to Maidenpool, so he can take a ship from there to White Harbor.
  • aDwD, Davos IV: Wylis Manderly has arrived home and White Harbor holds a celebration. Since Davos III, Lord Davos was a “dead man” in the Wolf’s Den. Robett Glover takes him via a secret corridor to see Manderly in private where all is explained to him.

So, we know there are eighteen days between Manderly capturing Davos, sending Cersei a bird about it, receiving her demand for Davos’ head, and Manderly pretending to do exactly that. It does not really matter how many days later that Cersei received the bird about Davos’ capture. What matters is that she would receive the news of Davos’ beheading around eighteen days later after the small council. We can conclude that it took Aurane eighteen days (give or take) after the small council meeting to nearly complete three new dromonds.

Davos II and Davos IV also give us an estimate on what “fast” means when it comes to ship building. The evening that Davos arrives at White Harbor, he counts twenty three new war galleys built on Wyman Manderly’s command.

Behind the jetty wall, the inner harbor was crowded with war galleys. Davos counted twenty-three. Lord Wyman was a fat man, but not an idle one, it seemed. (aDwD, Davos II)

Not idle at all, for earlier in the same chapter, Davos expected Manderly to have managed to build a score of war galleys since he heard about it at Eastwatch-by-the-Sea: that is twenty war galleys. In other words, Manderly managed to make three more, than Davos expected.

At Eastwatch-by-the-Sea, Cotter Pyke told Davos that Lord Wyman was building war galleys. There could have been a score of ships concealed behind those walls, waiting only a command to put to sea. […] (aDwD, Davos II)

Later, Wyman Manderly reveals that he built double that amount over a year.

“I have been building warships for more than a year. Some you saw, but there are as many more hidden up the White Knife.” (aDwD, Davos IV)

Manderly managed to build 46 war galleys since his promise at the harvest feast in aCoK to build a warfleet for King Robb. If we take an estimation of Manderly’s “boat building” speed, he built on average almost 4 war galleys a month, or about one war galley per 8 days. Aurane manages to build nearly one per 6 days! And yes, dromonds are war galleys. If Davos, the seaworthy, already believed Manderly to be hard working at half the rate than Manderly actually succeeded in, then how impressive is Aurane’s rate? So, yes, Aurane is working very hasty.

This type of haste negates the possibility that Aurane had those built just to sail off to be a pirate king at the Stepstones, while Paxter Redwyne is prowling the area with near two hundred galleys. This type of haste can only be explained, if Aurane expected someone to arrive in several months time. And he is the sole man on the small council expecting the Golden Company to have broken its contract with Myr to sail for Westeros. We can even infer the deadline that Aurane gave himself: for if he keeps the rate at one dromond per 6 days, then he wants to finish ten dromonds in 60 days, or 2 months.

It might seem silly to use Davos’ chapters as time measurement for the speed at which war galleys are being built. After all, George often uses “fantasy” speeds and has Tyrion journey from Winterfell to the Crossroads in aGoT in the same amount of time as Catelyn journeying there from King’s Landing. But Davos’s second chapter in aDwD contains several very relevant references to Targaryens that match my proposal about Aurane, enough to serve as a literary pointer.

In Davos I, our onion knight learned from Godric Borrell that the Sloe-Eyed Maid on its way to Braavos was blown by a gale from the Bite and ended up shipwrecked at Sweetsister. In Qarth, Dany had inquired with several ships, including the Sloe-Eyed Maid whether they would consider to take her on as passenger along with her baby dragons. At the Lazy Eel in White Harbor, a Braavosi oarsman tells Davos the tale of Dany and her baby dragons seeking passage in Qarth. The oarsman learned that Dany sought passage to Westeros, when the oarsman’s ship was moored besides the Sloe-Eyed Maid in Pentos.

“Daenerys,” Davos said. “She was named for the Daenerys who wed the Prince of Dorne during the reign of Daeron the Second. I don’t know what became of her.”
“I do,” said the man who’d started all the talk of dragons, a Braavosi oarsman in a somber woolen jack. “When we were down to Pentos we moored beside a trader called the Sloe-Eyed Maid, and I got to drinking with her captain’s steward. He told me a pretty tale about some slip of a girl who come aboard in Qarth, to try and book passage back to Westeros for her and three dragons. Silver hair she had, and purple eyes. ‘I took her to the captain my own self,’ this steward swore to me, ‘but he wasn’t having none of that. There’s more profit in cloves and saffron, he tells me, and spices won’t set fire to your sails.’ ” (aDwD, Davos II)

In Aurane’s Part I, I already argued that Dany seeking passage on a ship from Qarth would coincide with the moment that Varys recruited Aurane as agent. And I also proposed that Varys would have used Dany having hatched three dragons and his expectation she was about to sail for Pentos as the carrot to convince Aurane to bend the knee to Joffrey.

And lo and behold, before the Braavosi oarsman tells the tale of Dany and her dragons in Qarth, other sailors banter over kings and Targaryens believed to be long dead being possibly still alive, since nobody has seen their dead body with their own two eyes. One of the Targaryens mentioned in this way is Rhaegar’s son, Aegon.

Aurane, the Lord of the Waters, Part 1 – The Set Up

(Top illustration – Aurane “the Bastard of Driftmark” Water by Amino)

In Strange Sails I tackle the mystery and/or prediction on how the ragtag of exiles capture Storm’s End. A critical inspection on the castle, the cliff, the token host besieging and the two hundred inside leads to the conclusion that

  • the capture of Storm’s End requires a naval ally.
  • and that the Golden Company gaining Tarth for its territory after the Volantenese scattered them along the southern coastlines indicates the acquisition of naval allies.

The cogs and crew of Greenstone are the sole acknowledged ships to have been commandeered, but it can hardly be called a naval fleet. The possibilities become far more interesting once we recognize that Salladhor Saan and Aurane Waters – who abandoned their former known allies in Westeros – each have naval war and combat experience as well as ships. Various reports and in-world speculations position both these men at the Stepstones at the right time to meet with those of the Golden Company the Volantenese dropped ashore. And there is no reason to believe that if Salla sells his sails to the Golden Company that this excludes Aurane from being an ally. After all, both sailed together for Stannis in aCoK. So, they can both end up sailing for Aegon in tWoW and off-page in aDwD. This essay is meant to dig deeper into the case for Aurane Waters specifically having allied himself (unwttingly) with Aegon, Jon Connington and the Golden Company.

Obviously Aurane Waters and the stolen fleet of dromonds would have been useful to move the stranded Golden Company and their elephants from the Stepstones to Cape Wrath and, later, into Shipbreaker’s Bay or the Straight of Tarth. Once Aurane’s alleged whereabouts are pointed out around the time of Jon Connington’s landing – the Stepstones – it seems a sensible proposal for Aurane to have helped the partially stranded Golden Company and elephants to wherever they wish to go.

The case I will be arguing, however, is not that of an opportunistic pirate jumping on the chance, when it presents itself. Instead, like BryndenBFish, I argue that Aurane Waters was an agent of Varys in aFfC. His essay The Agents of Chaos, Part 3: The Pirate King summarizes Aurane’s role on Cersei’s small council well and sets up a pragmatical case for it. I will add to his proposal with further literary analysis as well as go even further into the past, to aCoK, and argue that Varys recruited Aurane shortly after his capture at the Blackwater, before he bent the knee to Joffrey. I will also propose a scenario how Taena Merryweather managed to manipulate Cersei into picking Aurane for her small council.

Varys’ Need

A bald plump man in white silks with a purple border, walking past what appears one of the paws, claws or feet of a dragon skeleton

While I have pointed out Aegon’s need for a naval fleet, Varys also needed agents around Cersei.

Tyrion’s travels with team-exile show beyond any doubt that Varys and Illyrio have been working since the victory of Robert’s Rebellion (if not before) on getting Aegon on the throne. Varys built and managed a spy network for two decades. Illyrio bribed and paid politicians and rulers of Free Cities. They drafted contracts with the Golden Company over a decade ago and recruited and funded various people to maintain a floating private tutoring school for Aegon. And they used agents to do their bidding, such as Jorah Mormont in aGoT.

After Varys manipulated Robert into promising a reward to anyone who would assassinate the pregnant Danaerys, his co-conspiritor Illyrio warned Jorah of Robert’s intention so that he could inform Drogo of this. It was an elaborate scheme to motivate Drogo into crossing the Narrow Sea and Dany’s death was the potential collateral damage they were willing to risk. They may even have wanted the assassination to succeed to rid themselves of a rival to Aegon, namely Dany’s unborn child. After all, they would have wanted Drogo ultimately to fight and die for their candidate Aegon, not Drogo’s child. And this double-sided manipulation could have been succesful if not for Drogo’s wound and him smearing bacteria filled mud on his chest near his heart.

Ideally, Varys would have remained a manipulating force on the small council until Aegon arrives at the gates of King’s Landing. But Tywin’s murder and Jaime knowing of Varys’ involvement to free Tyrion forced him to go into hiding, just as Aegon and the Golden Company are about to move to Volantis to sail for Westeros. Varys and Illyrio did not work this dilligently, albeit with great flexibility, for close to twenty years to then leave it solely to chance in the last stretch. They would get agents close to the one wielding power. And it is even reasonable to suspect that Varys would have prepared for such a contingency plan well in advance. Especially since Robert’s death, there was an increasing risk that any of the Lannister hands or regents might dismiss him or mean him lethal harm. Remember that Varys increasingly felt it was impossible to keep juggling hundred balls in the air when Ned Stark still lived and was Hand, that this was “no longer a game for two players, if ever it was.”

Varys as Rugen to Illyrio: “Even the finest of jugglers cannot keep a hundred  balls  in  the air forever.” (aGoT, Arya III)

I find it a big ask to believe that Varys would leave either regent or Hand to their own devices in the final stretch before Aegon’s homecoming. Nor am I the only person suspecting at least one character being an agent operating for Varys in aFfC.

Taena Merryweather

One of the more apparent agents during Cersei’s reign in aFfC in the minds of many readers is Taena Merryweather, though they may disagree who she is working for or even regard her a double agent. In 2014 BryndenBFish built a strong case for Taena in his Agents of Chaos (Part 1): The Myrish Femme Fatale. One argument of his confirms she is in contact with Varys: her revealing to Cersei that Olenna Tyrell has a chest of Gardener coins to con unsuspecting merchants. When Jaimeinquires with Cersei what she knows about Taena and what sort of things Taena tells her, she replies

“Did you know that the Queen of Thorns keeps a chest of coins in her wheelhouse? Old gold from before the Conquest. Should any tradesman be so unwise as to name a price in golden coins, she pays him with hands from Highgarden, each half the weight of one of our dragons. What merchant would dare complain of being cheated by Mace Tyrell’s lady mother?” (aFfC, Jaime II)

Taena’s reveal strengthens Cersei’s paranoia about the Tyrells’ involvement in Tyrion’s escape and Tywin’s murder, because Qyburn discovered exactly such a coin in Rugen’s cell.

“I know all this.” Jaime had examined Rugen’s cell, and Ser Addam’s gold cloaks had examined it again.
“Aye, Your Grace,” said Qyburn, “but did you know that under that stinking chamber pot was a loose stone, which opened on a small hollow? The sort of place where a man might hide valuables that he did not wish to be discovered?”
“Valuables?” This was new. “Coin, you mean?” She had suspected all along that Tyrion had somehow bought this gaoler.
“Beyond a doubt. To be sure, the hole was empty when I found it. No doubt Rugen took his ill-gotten treasure with him when he fled. But as I crouched over the hole with my torch, I saw something glitter, so I scratched in the dirt until I dug it out.” Qyburn opened his palm. “A gold coin.”
Gold, yes, but the moment Cersei took it she could tell that it was wrong. Too small, she thought, too thin. The coin was old and worn. On one side was a king’s face in profile, on the other side the imprint of a hand. “This is no dragon,” she said.
“No,” Qyburn agreed. “It dates from before the Conquest, Your Grace. The king is Garth the Twelfth, and the hand is the sigil of House Gardener.” (AFFC, Cersei II)

Though Jaime and gold cloaks had examined Rugen’s cell, it is implied that Qyburn was the sole person to discover the loose stone, because Cersei responds to Qyburn’s description of Rugen’s cell as “I know all this”. This then would absolutely rule out the gold cloaks from taking the content of the hollow for themselves or talking about it. As BryndenBFish pointed out, only Varys (who is Rugen), Qyburn and Cersei know about the coin, when Taena conveniently links Olenna to the coin. We can rule out Qyburn having tipped off Taena, since Cersei commanded him to not mention it to anyone else.

“You will not speak of this with anyone,” she commanded.
“Your Grace may trust in my discretion. Any man who rides with a sellsword company learns to hold his tongue, else he does not keep it long.” (AFFC, Cersei II)

We can rely on Qyburn to have kept this secret, since he did not betray Roose’s plans to Jaime either when he tended to Jaime at Harrenhal. So, if Taena mentioned Olenna’s cheap deception with the Gardener gold because she knew about the coin Qyburn found and gave to Cersei, then only Varys could have been her source on the latter.

It is also noteworthy that symbolically the Merryweathers fit the “exile team” concept. Orton Merryweather’s grandfather Owen Merryweather was once the Mad King’s Hand and, like Jon Connington, stripped of his lands and sent into exile by Aerys II for his failure to contain Robert’s Rebellion. Orton joined his grandfather to Essos, and eventually wed Taena of Myr. Orton managed to persuade Robert Baratheon to return the seat Longtable back to House Merryweather.

His sister laughed. “Not you. Have no fear on that count. Perhaps Taena’s husband. His grandfather was Hand under Aerys.”
The horn-of-plenty Hand. Jaime remembered Owen Merryweather well enough; an amiable man, but ineffectual. “As I recall, he did so well that Aerys exiled him and seized his lands.”
“Robert gave them back. Some, at least. Taena would be pleased if Orton could recover the rest.” (aFfC, Jaime II)

Taena’s son was born at Longtable and six in 300 AC. Taena is also said to be a decade younger than Cersei. This means Taena was born roughly in 276 AC and birthed her first and only child at 17 in 294 AC. The youngest marriage age that George allows for is 12. But Taena is not a noble’s daughter who is wed at first flowering for her title or land and they wed before Orton petitioned with Robert successfully for his own return to rule Longtable. It seems likeliest that Orton got his ancestral land back after the Greyjoy rebellion somewhere between 291-293 AC.

Readers also argue that when Laswell Peake of the Golden Company refers to friends in the Reach this implies House Merryweather, which has been staunchly loyal to House Targaryen:

  • They marched alongside of House Peake to join Maegor the Cruel’s army against Aegon the Uncrowned,
  • During the onset of the Dance, Lord Merryweather remained loyal to Rhaenyra, was imprisoned and when brought before the King’s Justice still refused to bend the knee to Aegon II. He was beheaded for this. His wife would only yielded the castle to Lord Ormund Hightower after a siege, and still sent levies to join the Blacks at Tumbleton.

By itself, the friends in the Reach theoretically could by anybody, but notice what Taena has to say about the friends she has across the water!

It was Lady Merryweather who truly pleased her. “Your Grace,” that one said, in her sultry Myrish tones, “I have sent word to my friends across the narrow sea, asking them to seize the Imp at once should he show his ugly face in the Free Cities.”
“Do you have many friends across the water?”
“In Myr, many. In Lys as well, and Tyrosh. Men of power.” (aFfC, Cersei II)

When Taena claims to have many friends in Myr, the news of the Golden Company breaking its contract with Myr has not yet reached King’s Landing. They were still believed to be in Myr. 10000 friends would be many, right? Illyrio and Aegon and those they sponsored are men of power. If so, then Taena’s advice for her many friends to seize the Imp is a witty allusion to Illyrio already having Tyrion in his possession to gift him to Jon Connington. And take note of the fact, that apart from this one time reference to her many friends across the water, Taena fails to ever inform Cersei of any news from Essos about Tyrion, Myr, the Golden Company, … Taena Merryweather’s reports (real and fake) are restriced to court gossip on Margaery and her cousins.

Eventually, Taena’s flight from King’s Landing with her husband after Cersei’s arrest as well as her excuses to stay away raises suspicion for most readers as her being someone’s agent.

“Merryweather has resigned his seat on the council and fled back to Longtable with his wife, who was the first to bring us news of the . . . accusations . . . against Your Grace.” (aFfC, Cersei X)

At the very least, they honor the idiom meaning of their name by proving they are fair-weather friends, even though Sansa is not to call Taena “merry“.

Under the Radar

Aurane Waters is rarely suspected of being an agent though. Most readers assume he either grifted a fleet of warships for himself from Cersei, or fled with the fleet after Cersei’s arrest in fear for his life for having been part of her council. This impression relies on a list of assumptions and beliefs that are questionable.

For example, it may seem over the top that Varys would risk having two agents work alongside one another. But consider how in aCoK and aSoS, Littlefinger has several agents operating inside the Red Keep all at once  – Ser Dontos, the Kettleblack brothers and Lothor Brune. Littlefinger and Varys are not that different from one another in how they operate, except that Varys uses secrets and the desire for home and family as stick and carrot where Littlefinger uses coin and briberies. So, if say Taena does work for Varys in aFfC, this is not a reason to exclude someone else at the Red Keep from being an agent alongside her. It would just mean the various agents have other goals to achieve and thus operate in different settings. Nor are they necessarily aware of one another.

Another mistake is the tendency to see Varys and Illyrio have two strictly dvided roles: Varys is the spy, recruiter and manipulator, while Illyrio is the banker merchant who gets to provide financial support, logistics and gifts material aid. So, we are predisposed to expect Illyrio to acquire, build or buy a fleet of warships, not Varys. Nevertheless, Illyrio is not so rich to be able to fund such a thing: even Cersei has to halt payments of the crown’s loan to the Faith and the Iron Bank in order to build ten dromonds.

Even if Illyrio had the funds to build a war fleet, he could not build one in Pentos without provoking Braavos. The Secret City does not allow entire Pentos more than twenty warships.

A further provision of the peace accords between Braavos and Pentos limits the Pentoshi to no more than twenty warships and prohibits them from hiring sellswords, entering into contracts with free companies, or maintaining any army beyond the city watch. (tWoIaF – The Free Cities: Pentos)

Pentos is also prohibited from hiring sellswords or draft contracts with free companies. That broad prohibition against militaristic expansion on Pentos by Braavos can explain many if not most of Illyrio’s tactics in acquiring military support. As a magister of Pentos, Illyrio has to do it with the utmost secrecy. Braavos would descend upon Pentos with their war fleet if Illyrio had a personal deal with Khal Drogo to hand him 50 000 Dothraki. Instead he has Viserys make a deal with Drogo, with Dany as prized bride for it. Illyrio could not have signed a contract with the Golden Company for gold. He can only do that for secret blood to a young man to whom he is not related (officially), and all in the utmost secrecy.

All of this explains why Illyrio paid the Volantenese sails to do no more than transport the Golden Company to Westeros. Varys would have been expected to secure a naval solution for Aegon from his side of the Narrow Sea. Admittedly, a war fleet may not have been high on the priority list, initially. At the start of the series, the master of ships Stannis Baratheon has retreated to Dragonstone, while a large contingent of Robert’s fleet is in King’s Landing. This division between the two Baratheon brothers would have been sufficient. Only after the Battle of the Blackwater, Stannis has a superior sea force, which is exactly the moment that Aurane who grew up at Driftmark falls prisoner to the Crown. So what are the possible clues that indicate that Aurane is an agent for Varys and Aegon?

What’s in a Name?

Aurane, The Golden Wind

Aurane’s first name is literary a golden nugget of a tip-off. The French name Aurane (a variant of Auriane), which would be pronounced as Or-Anne, means golden wind. The prefix or- is the French word for gold. The Latin root aurum means golden or in gold. But there is also the Greek and Latin aura, which means wind, and in Middle English aura was used to indicate a gentle breeze. Is that another way of saying fair weather? The name Aurane then also is a wordplay in the same way as the name Merryweather and implies he, like Taena, is another fair weather friend.

A character called golden wind fits the concept of a sailor as well as the theme of the Golden Company. I go into the Golden Company (prowess and history) more in depth in House Blackfyre. The sellsword company was for hire for gold for decades, but broke its sellsword contract for the very first time in 300 AC, for a blood contract instead, made between Illyrio and Myles Toyne five years after Robert’s Rebellion, after Varys and Illyrio informed Blackheart and Jon Connington that Rhaegar’s son Aegon had survived. Aurane’s golden name makes him suitable company (pun intended), and his blood of Driftmark, even bastard blood, could seek glory in allying with a prince of the (alleged) Targaryen bloodline.

Pirate King or Lord Waters?

When Arianne visits Ghost Hill to take a ship to Cape Wrath, Nymella and Valena Toland mention the appearance of a new pirate king at the Stepstones.

“[…] A new pirate king has set up on Torturer’s Deep. The Lord of the Waters, he styles himself. This one has real warships, three-deckers, monstrous large. […]” (tWoW, Arianne I)

Though it has not yet been confirmed, most readers believe this Lord of the Waters to be Aurane Waters, the bastard of Driftmark, because of the following arguments:

This connection is obvious, and so some readers will suspect a red herring. But if this novel “pirate” is not Aurane Waters, then who else could he be? The chance that someone else managed to get funding to build a fleet of three-decker warships is zero.  The title and location just seals it.

So, I do think that The Lord of the Waters and Aurane Waters are one and the same.  But I also agree the claim is a red herring, not about the man’s identity, but that he is a pirate king. Sure, Aurane’s actions and surface behaviour in aFfC seem to portray him as a greedy short-sighted opportunist, out for his own financial enrichment: he has the crown pay for brand new huge warships and then sails off with them as the city is in disarray. But much of that is based on Cersei’s projection of her own superficial affect, of her own shallow desires. Cersei’s perception of other people and their motives is subpar.

For example, consider the self-chosen style Lord, instead of King or Prince and this without shying away from bastard birth status. Compare this to Prince Daemon Targaryen who called himself King of the Stepstones and wore a crown, or sellsail Salladhor Saan who styled himself as Prince of the Narrow Sea. In fact, Davos opines that a rich pirate usually gets the style prince.

The Lyseni was a smuggler himself, as well as a trader, a banker, a notorious pirate, and the self-styled Prince of the Narrow Sea. When a pirate grows rich enough, they make him a prince. (aCoK, Davos I)

So, the style that presumably Aurane Waters chose for himself, Lord of the Waters, is more humble than his surface characterization in aFfC suggests, or even in comparison to the portrayal of other past pirates and exiles on the Stepstones. It are other people who refer to him as a pirate king, and they only do so based on hearsay.

Now, I do not mean to say that Aurane is a “humble man” per se or without personal ambition. But for all his seeming claim of being able to lord over all the waters, not just Blackwater Bay, the Stepstones or even the Narrow Sea, he does not crown himself. Instead he chooses a feudal style of a nobleman and master who is still bound to a king or queen. That queen is not Cersei Lannister, and that king is not named Baratheon (Tommen or Stannis).

A Small Council

The names and styles are hardly evidence that Aurane Waters was recruited prior to meeting the Golden Company on the Stepstones off page during aDwD. They just are symbolical hints to whom he may align. But one of Aurane Waters’ earliest dialogue is. Though mentioned in aCoK, Aurane has no speaking part until Cersei’s small council meeting in aFfC, Cersei IV. By then he is already her Admiral. First he makes a witty remark how the removal of a head implies that person is dead (about Gregor Clegane), then a little later wishes to discuss the making of a royal fleet of warships, before he eventually brings up the Golden Company.

“Whilst we await Lord Walder’s death, there is another matter,” said Aurane Waters. “The Golden Company has broken its contract with Myr. Around the docks I’ve heard men say that Lord Stannis has hired them and is bringing them across the sea.” (aFfC, Cersei IV)

The clue
“Beneath the Gold the Bitter Steel”, by Urukki Saki, depicting the Golden Company and its current prominent members

Admittedly, you would only pick up on it as a clue during a reread of aFfC, as it requires information from aDwD. When we discuss movements, plans and schemes occurring behind the page scenes in either aFfC or aDwD, we must remember that both books share a timespan of events occurring in different geographical locations, rather than passing of time alone. So, I will sketch the events of various POVs  ocurring in relation to the moment of this council meeting.

The news of the Golden Company breaking its contract with Myr is heavily talked off at various harbors. Arianne discusses the news about the breaking of the contract with Myr with Ser Arys in The Soiled Knight. People of Westeros and Essos alike speculate on the Golden Company’s motives: such as Tyrosh or Lys bribing them. So, when Aurane claims this to be the gossip of the docks of King’s Landing, this appears credible. Cersei, however, instantly dismisses Aurane’s gossip.

“Lord Qyburn has spoken to the crew of that Myrish galley in the bay. They claim the Golden Company is making for Volantis. If they mean to cross to Westeros, they are marching in the wrong direction.” (aFfC, Cersei IV)

There is a Myrish galley at anchor in the bay that would be regarded as the most reliable source for information, not just by Qyburn or Cersei, but also pretty much anyone working in and around the harbor. Some of the crew no doubt frequent bars and brothels or traded. So, it would be very weird that the alleged harbor gossip is about Stannis hiring the Golden Company as Aurane claims, instead of them marching for Volantis. The juxtaposition of what should be the gossip around the docks instead of what Aurane claims it to be is why we ought to question Aurane’s source.

aDwD confirms Cersei’s claim that the Golden Company marches for Volantis, in Tyrion II.

“The Golden Company marches toward Volantis as we speak, there to await the coming of our queen out of the east.”
Beneath the gold, the bitter steel. “I had heard the Golden Company was under contract with one of the Free Cities.”
“Myr.” Illyrio smirked. “Contracts can be broken.” (aDwD, Tyrion II)

Tyrion journeys the southern region of Andalos in a litter with Illyrio around the same time that Cersei has her small council meeting in King’s Landing. But Illyrio is not relaying gossip. He is involved, informed, and responsible for the Golden Company’s marching orders – they are supposed to join up with Aegon, Dany and her Unsullied in Volantis. Once Illyrio learned that Dany hatched dragons from the eggs he gifted her, he attempted to get her back to Pentos on the cogs he sent to Qarth with Selmy Barristan and Belwas. Instead, Dany sailed for Slaver’s Bay to get herself an army of Unsullied. By the time Illyrio learned of Dany conquering Slaver’s Bay, he assumed that she would continue to attack cities to enlarge her army of freed slaves, either marching overland or sail by sea to Volantis.

“This dragon queen who wears her name is a true Targaryen. When I sent ships to bring her home, she turned toward Slaver’s Bay. In a short span of days she conquered Astapor, made Yunkai bend the knee, and sacked Meereen. Mantarys will be next, if she marches west along the old Valyrian roads. If she comes by sea, well … her fleet must take on food and water at Volantis.”[…] “Many and more will perish, but those who survive will be stronger by the time they reach Volantis … where they shall find you and Griff awaiting them, with fresh forces and sufficient ships to carry them all across the sea to Westeros.” (aDwD, Tyrion II)

Aegon, Tyrion and the Golden Company journey to Volantis, because they all expect Dany to show up there.

In other words, around the time of Cersei’s council meeting, Illyrio (and Varys) expected and planned for Aegon and the Golden Company to journey to Westeros from Volantis. And Varys’ task would have been to prepare for Aegon’s and Dany’s coming, to facilitate their invasion. So, even if Aurane points incorrectly to Stannis, it is curious he mentions a tale of the Golden Company coming to Westeros when this plan is only known to Illyrio, Tyrion, Jon Connington, Harry Strickland and presumably Varys.

Intrestingly enough, once the Golden Company sailed off for Westeros (instead of Meereen where Dany had decided to stay), Ser Jorah Mormont overheared the following gossip at the Merchant’s House in Volantis:

“Last night the talk here was all of Westeros. Some exiled lord has hired the Golden Company to win back his lands for him. Half the captains in Volantis are racing upriver to Volon Therys to offer him their ships.” (aDwD, Tyrion VII)

“Some exiled lord”… The gossip at the docks of Volantis is eerily similar to the alleged gossip that Aurane “overheard” months earlier. Of course, the exiled lord is Jon Connington and ultimately Aegon, not Stannis. But certain factions in Westeros would refer to Stannis as an exiled lord within the range of King’s Landing ears. At the very least, the Volantis gossip is a near twin to Aurane’s predicton that the Golden Company would journey to Westeros to battle Cersei for an exile and claimant of the Iron Throne.

Theoretically there are three possible ways how Aurane came this close to the truth:

  • A lucky guess
  • Accidental overhearing
  • An informed agent

As long as we think of this in a real world sense all three ways are equally possible without any further confirmation. But we are not just reading a retelling of events. George is an adept author who uses literary tricks and devices. And each of the above three would use or serve a different literary device. The text will show that the literary set up for the first and second is absent, but amply available for the third option, within the very chapter of the small council.

A lucky guess?

To make a wrong guess in the present, but which turns out to be correct (or close enough) is a literary device of ironic foreshadowing that George does use at times. But those tend to stand out to the reader upon first read. For example he puts it in a private conversation between two beloved characters. The moment is memorable enough that by the time the foreshadowing does occur it will be at the top of your mind again, involving characters or groups the reader is familiar with.

A small council meeting where several people have varying dialogues on a wide spread of topics is not an impossible setting for such a literary device, but a difficult one. The reader requires

  • a broad understanding of the events taking place that most on the council do not.
  • a familiarity with the various council members, so that the reader remembers who said what.

Cersei’s small council in this chapter is no such setting. Merryweather is a new character with dialogue, Aurane gets his first dialogue and we are only starting to get a better grasp on Qyburn. Jaime is not present. (and just had a private dialogue with Cersei in his own chapter just preceding Cersei IV). Only Cersei and Pycelle are familiar to the reader as characters, but we are not sympathetic to them. And while the reader has some insight on what is happening with the topics such as the Ironborn, Stannis and of course Jon Snow, they are not familiar with the Golden Company. Its name and existence is introduced in aFfC, in Arys Oakheart’s sole POV chapter The Soiled Knight through Arianne mentioning it. Cersei’s small council is the second chapter where they are mentioned. Unknown characters debating an unknown subject in a multi-character dialogue is not a setting for ironic foreshadowing.

Aurane’s comment about the Golden Company has a link to literary irony, but that ironic moment occurs in tWoW, Theon I, when Stannis commands Justin Massey to go to Braavos and hire 20 000 sellswords including preferably the Golden Company.

Stannis to Justin Massey: “[…] The Iron Bank has opened its coffers to me. You will collect their coin and hire ships and sellswords. A company of good repute, if you can find one. The Golden Company would be my first choice, if they are not already under contract. Seek for them in the Disputed Lands, if need be. But first hire as many swords as you can find in Braavos, and send them to me by way of Eastwatch. Archers as well, we need more bows.” (tWoW, Theon I)

It is a moment of tragic irony. By then the reader is quite familiar with the Golden Company, its plans and whereabouts. They are already in Westeros fighting for a rival claimant, Aegon Targaryen, rushing towards Storm’s End, the castle that Stannis held to the brink of starvation during Robert’s Rebellion while Mace Tyrell besieged it. That long ago siege was lifted by Ned Stark, lord of Winterfell, after he had an argument with Robert Baratheon over the alleged murder of baby Aegon Targaryen. And now Stannis desires the Golden Company to be hired while he and his army are starving miles away from Winterfell to take it back for Ned’s daughter. More, according to the Pink Letter that Jon Snow received in his last chapter of aDwD, Stannis allegedly is already dead. Not to mention that Mace Tyrell is besieging Storm’s End again.

By tWoW, Theon I the first-time reader may half remember that someone on Cersei’s council once claimed to have heard that Stannis had hired them. We would forgive the reader for not remembering who had mentioned it: “Cersei? Pycelle? Qyburn maybe?” They’d have to look it up, or more likely, smile about Aurane’s comment upon reread.

So, Aurane’s comment is one of the steps leading to tragic irony of Stannis, but it is not the sole one. Arianne’s introduction of the subject of the Golden Company to Arys Oakheart in aFfC, The Soiled Knight, is the most glaring one.

“No,” [Arianne] said. “I would believe it of any of the other free companies, yes. Most of them would change sides for half a groat. The Golden Company is different. A brotherhood of exiles and the sons of exiles, united by the dream of Bittersteel. It’s home they want, as much as gold. Lord Yronwood knows that as well as I do. His forebears rode with Bittersteel during three of the Blackfyre Rebellions.” She took Ser Arys by the hand, and wove her fingers through his own. “Have you ever seen the arms of House Toland of Ghost Hill?”
He had to think a moment. “A dragon eating its own tail?”
“The dragon is time. It has no beginning and no ending, so all things come round again. […]” (aFfC, The Soiled Knight)

My main conclusion here is that Aurane’s remark about the Golden Company coming to Westeros and being hired by Stannis is meant to be ironic upon reread, not first read. And a dialogue or claim that is ironic upon reread does not require to be a lucky guess as literary device.

Put this potential lucky guess against the knowledge that Aurane also steered the council into agreeing to have ten dromonds built for a new fleet. Both subjects were brought up in his first ever dialogue in the same meeting, and he ends up in the right place, at the right time with the right ships. Once you weigh this against “did Aurane make two lucky guesses?” then the option that Aurane had it straight from Varys’ mouth seems far more sensible.

Accidental hearing?

If indeed Aurane’s source was Varys then, we have to consider, in theory, whether he accidentally overheard Varys in disguise talking to one of Illyrio’s merchant captains at the docks. Varys’ disguises are good enough that they fool people unless they are directly accosted by Varys. In that way, Aurane may not even have known his source was Varys and indeed thinks of them as “men around the docks”.

Unintended discovery of crucial information between the plotters Varys and Illyrio has been featured in aGoT: when Arya overhears them as they walk the tunnels beneath the Red Keep. They discuss Dany’s pregnancy and its impact on Khal Drogo. They reference the death of a prior Hand as a solution to deal with Ned Stark having found the bastard. And they mention sorcery and wizardry. Arya then warns her father: that a wizard discussed killing him, and that the princess was pregnant. As a child she does not fully grasp metaphors, lacks background knowledge but also adds her own inference instead of reporting objectively. She assumes the bastard means Jon. She does not know Gendry or Dany exist. And nobody knows that Varys was not involved in the death of Jon Arryn or that he managed to recruit Jon Connington over a decade ago.

Adults who are not trained in objective reporting may infer the wrong identity on vague referrals when eavesdropping as well. If the men Aurane overheard said something along the lines of how the Golden Company “would set sail for Westeros soon to fight for their exiled lord,” Aurane would have understandably jumped to the wrong conclusion that they implied Stannis.

The main issue with “accidental hearing” is that in literature this type of sourcing requires the reader to witness Aurane overhearing Varys. Take Arya’s adventure as an example. Arya was unable to tell her father that her source was Varys (and not a wizard), because she did not yet know him or recognize him. This made it easy for Ned Stark to dismiss it. Meanwhile the reader knows Arya’s source to be genuine, pleading in thought with Ned to believe her.

The reader is unable to verify Aurane’s source, however, since we do not witness it. As a result, Cersei comes across as sensible to dismiss Aurane’s gossip from the docks, especially since she can cite Qyburn’s inquiry with the Myrish captain at anchor in the bay. Meanwhile, to the reader Aurane comes across as an unrealible source who either tries to manipulate Cersei by namedropping Stannis or because he is content with whatever unverified gossip he picks up from “uninformed” men at the docks over a fellow “informed” captain. In other words, George does not reveal Aurane’s source to the reader, because he wants us to dismiss the claim as well as Aurane’s character. I smell a red herring. Therefore “accidental hearing” does not work as an explanation, because it is not written for such a literary use.

Informed Agent

The realisation that George wants us to dismiss Aurane’s reliability as a source (just like Cersei did) is quite telling all in itself, especially, since Aurane turned out be correct about the Golden Company’s intentions. This brings me to the last option: Aurane was an agent of Varys, informed about the Golden Company’s plans and coached by Varys to use half truths and other news of Essos so that Cersei, Qyburn and Pycelle would perceive Aurane as harmless after this small council meeting. And for this option we do have literary tricks that George deploys within the very same chapter of this meeting of the small council.

George puts Varys on the reader’s mind, via Cersei:

  • right at the onset of the meeting,
  • and during Aurane’s fleet request after a comment about Ironborn.

Both times, she reviews his usefulness as a living, breathing Wikipedia, in response to certain characters’ display of knowledge (or lack of it). Her conclusions  about Varys end up contradicting one another. This is how George invites the reader to examine Varys’ manner of reporting at small councils themselves and to compare it with Qyburn and the other members on the small council. It becomes a literary riddle – “Who on this council reports the most like Varys”? Such riddles are ideal to tease and guide readers during a reread, rather than a first read, which works with how Aurane’s info on the Golden Company can only be understood to be a potential clue.

In the first instance, Qyburn and her walk together to the small council, while the bells of the Great Sept clang in mourning for the assassinated High Septon. The bells vex her, but these are unspoken thoughts. When Qyburn assures her that the bells will stop ringing at sunset, she asks him how he knows. He replies with a platitude, and Cersei concludes that Qyburn will serve as well as Varys as her master of whisperers.

The pealing of the bells was louder in the yard. He was only a High Septon. How long must we endure this? The ringing was more melodious than the Mountain’s screams had been, but . . . Qyburn seemed to sense what she was thinking. “The bells will stop at sunset, Your Grace.”
“That will be a great relief. How can you know?”
“Knowing is the nature of my service.”
Varys had all of us believing he was irreplaceable. What fools we were. Once the queen let it become known that Qyburn had taken the eunuch’s place, the usual vermin had wasted no time in making themselves known to him, to trade their whispers for a few coins. It was the silver all along, not the Spider. Qyburn will serve us just as well. (aFfC, Cersei IV)

Cersei is impressed by two abilities that Qyburn displays in this instance:

  • He senses her irritability at the bells.
  • He knows when the mourning bells will stop ringing.

Neither are particularly examples of masterfulness. While Cersei can be stoic (when she wishes to be so), she is not particularly known for masking her irritation. It was easy for Qyburn to realize what bothered her. And how long the Faith would publically mourn the death of a High Septon is not some top secret  you require a spy network for. It is just typical of Cersei to project her own disinterest for anything beyond what is immediately in front of her onto others.

Nothing in the above situation warrants a master of whisperer, let alone Varys paying coin to his spies. Varys relied on more than waving silver for whispers from informants. He used and trained children who can crawl in small spaces, to read various langauges, etc. Cersei’s thought also imply how Varys managed to make it appear like sorcery.

Catelyn considers wizardry for a moment, when Varys asks her to see the dagger.

[Varys] eased himself down into a seat and put his hands together. “I wonder if we might trouble you to show us the dagger?” Catelyn Stark stared at the eunuch in stunned disbelief. He was a spider, she thought wildly, an enchanter or worse. He knew things no one could possibly know, unless … (aGoT, Catelyn IV)

Note too that when Catelyn asks Varys how he could know what Ser Rodrik and Ser Aron Santagar discussed, he (like Qyburn) answers that knowing things is the nature of his service.

“How could you know all that?”
“The whisperings of little birds,” Varys said, smiling. “I know things, sweet lady. That is the nature of my service.” (aGoT, Catelyn IV)

The second time that Cersei thinks of Varys is after Aurane wishes to discuss adding back to their strength at sea.

“Might we discuss the fleet?” asked Aurane Waters. “Fewer than a dozen of our ships survived the inferno on the Blackwater. We must needs restore our strength at sea.”
Merryweather nodded. “Strength at sea is most essential. Could we make use of the ironmen?” asked Orton Merryweather. “The enemy of our enemy? What would the Seastone Chair want of us as the price of an alliance?” (aFfC, Cersei IV)

Lord Orton Merryweather and Ser Harys Swyft contemplate a potential alliance with the Ironborn, with nobody answering Swyft’s question whether Balon Greyjoy still has any brothers and how many there could be.

“Balon Greyjoy is dead, I had heard,” said Ser Harys Swyft. “Do we know who rules the isles now? Did Lord Balon have a son?”
“Leo?” coughed Lord Gyles. “Theo?”
“Theon Greyjoy was raised at Winterfell, a ward of Eddard Stark,” Qyburn said. “He is not like to be a friend of ours.”
“I had heard he was slain,” said Merryweather.
“Was there only one son?” Ser Harys Swyft tugged upon his chin beard. “Brothers. There were brothers. Were there not?”
Varys would have known, Cersei thought with irritation. (aFfC, Cersei IV)

Yes, Varys would have known that Balon Greyjoy had three brothers, one son and a daughter as well as their whereabouts. But most council members there should know of Balon’s brothers. They just choose not to indulge Merryweather and Swyft in a senseless proposal of ripping the North in half, especially when House Bolton needs to beat the Ironborn to rally the northerners behind him.

This particular conversation reads as ironic contrast to the chapters we have been reading about the Kingsmoot at the Iron Islands. And we could suspect, that if Varys was still part of the small council, he might have had some spy reports how one Euron Greyjoy was elected as new ruler of the ironborn in a kingsmoot. But it is also important to pause and second guess whether these small council members should not know better.

Orton Merryweather is the sole man with a legitimate excuse to know little about the Greyjoys: he lived in exile for most of his life in Essos together with his grandfather, and likely did not return to Westeros until after the Greyjoy rebellion. That is a significant background story to determine what several small council members should know, such as Pycelle, Ser Harys Swyft and Aurane.

A close up view into a naval battle by daylight with a ship of the iron fleet in the front, black sails with golden kraken. In the background on the water we see unrecognizable ships in flames. Beyond that we see a large castle on a hill of the shore.
The Iron Fleet by Haryarti

During the Greyjoy Rebellion, Victarion and Euron Greyjoy led the Iron Fleet and burned the Lannister fleet at Lannisport. Later, Stannis Baratheon led Victarion into a trap and smashed the Iron Fleet, including Aeron “Damphair” Greyjoy’s ship. This was before Aeron was a priest of the Drowned God. He ended up captured and a prisoner at Casterly Rock for the remainder of that conflict.

In the end the Golden Storm went down off Fair Isle during Balon’s first rebellion, cut in half by a towering war galley called Fury when Stannis Baratheon caught Victarion in his trap and smashed the Iron Fleet. Yet the god was not done with Aeron, and carried him to shore. Some fishermen took him captive and marched him down to Lannisport in chains, and he spent the rest of the war in the bowels of Casterly Rock, proving that krakens can piss farther and longer than lions, boars, or chickens. (aFfC, The Prophet)

As Tywin’s fan and as a maester, Pycelle should know and remember both the burning of the Lannister fleet and Aeron’s imprisonment at Casterly Rock. He was also reinstalled to Tywin’s small council in aSoS, and present when Victarion’s and Asha’s whereabouts in the North were discussed. We can infer that Pycelle likely refrains from answering Swyft’s question about the brothers, because he does not wish to indulge Harys Swyft and Orton Merryweather any further in their nonsense. Anyone who has ever been in a meeting that got sidetracked by nonsensical fact chasing over aspects that are irrelevant to the subject will know that silence can be the best remedy. We as readers can determine that Pycelle would refrain from indulging this line of questioning, because he points out how the Ironborn want the north, while Cersei already promised it to Roose Bolton.

“They want the north,” Grand Maester Pycelle said, “which our queen’s noble father promised to House Bolton.” (aFfC, Cersei IV)

As father-in-law of Kevan Lannister, Ser Harys Swyft should know better too. Notice how Aeron’s memory of his captivity at the Rock includes some pissing contest between krakens and chickens. Aeron is not thinking about animals here, but sigils, and Swyft’s sigil is a blue “chicken”. Swyft does vaguely remember there were brothers but otherwise does not seem the brightest pencil in the drawer. So, we can conclude he is trying but indeed an ignorant character.

Qyburn seems to be knowledgeable about Balon’s son, Theon and how he was a ward of House Stark. But his suggestion that Theon would not want to ally with the Iron Throne against House Stark is odd oncec we pause to think of it. Did Qyburn forget Theon took Winterfell and as far as Westeros knows killed Bran and Rickon Stark? Is it not Theon who has been accused of burning down Winterfell? He was a Bloody Mummer operating out of Harrenhal, including when Roose Bolton commanded it. In fact, he tended the ravens and messages at Harrenhal, after Roose had maester Tothmure beheaded. It cannot be doubted that Qyburn knows Theon betrayed the Starks and perhaps even that Theon was captured by Ramsay. This means that Qyburn deliberately misrepresents Theon’s loyalties to House Stark. Maybe he is looking out for Roose Bolton, but this shows how Qyburn can use a certain fact and not disclose others to create the false impression, potentially serving two masters.

Of note here is that this whole dialogue that leads to Cersei lamenting Varys’ absence kicks off with Aurane bringing up the subject of a need to restore the fleet and that it is Aurane who concludes it with the order of ten dromonds.

Varys would have known, Cersei thought with irritation. “I do not propose to climb in bed with that sorry pack of squids. Their turn will come, once we have dealt with Stannis. What we require is our own fleet.”
“I propose we build new dromonds,” said Aurane Waters. “Ten, to start with.” (aFfC, Cersei IV)

We could regard Aurane as the framework or the “hull” around the hollow dialogue about the Ironborn. Cersei laments Varys’ absence and Aurane is the sole character who is as silent as Varys during the Ironborn silliness. George thus creates a framework for the reader to see Aurane as Varys’ replacement, not so much to be the master of whisperers, but to manipulate the crown to help Aegon’s homecoming.

I would also argue that Aurane is likely the most familiar with Balon’s brothers in a military sense. He was raised at Driftmark as a recognized bastard of House Velaryon, and is not looked down upon by the noble court. Recognized (aka named) bastards of noble birth- like Edric Storm, Jon Snow, … – are trained and taught like any other trueborn noble child. For House Velaryon and Driftmark this would have been naval tactics and historical naval battles. And since House Velaryon is a vassal to the master of Dragonstone, Stannis Baratheon, who won the Sea Battle off Fair Isle, against Victarion, Aeron and Euron, that battle would have been something Aurane would have heard being discussed often. He would have been around eleven at the time of the Greyjoy Rebellion. Aside from studying maps, he would have re-enacted some form of sword buckling and arguing over who got to play Stannis, the Lord of Driftmark, or one of the villainous Greyjoys.

A rough grey dark sea with grey smoke air and burning longships. In the center is a longship with the unfurled sail with kraken sigil.
The Battle at Fiar Isle, by Tomasz Jedruszek

We now have enough framing by George to ponder the rest of Aurane’s dialogue during the small council.

The first actual subject discussed during the meeting is Prince Doran’s news (by raven message to Pycelle) about the house arrest of the Sandsnakes and his request for justice about Gregor Clegane’s confession of raping and murdering Elia Martell. Cersei shares her decision to send Balon Swann to Sunspear with Gregor’s head. The Hand, Ser Harys Swyft then asks whether the Mountain is dead, which provokes Aurane to say, …

“Ah.” Ser Harys Swyft fumbled at his funny little beard with thumb and forefinger. “He is dead then? Ser Gregor?”
“I would think so, my lord,” Aurane Waters said dryly. “I am told that removing the head from the body is often mortal.” (aFfC, Cersei IV)

By the end of Cersei’s walk of shame in aDwD, Ser Gregor is, nevertheless, to be revealed to be both headless and undead, via Qyburn’s necromancing. Aurane’s dry remark betrays a non magical worldview, like Varys, and very much unlike Qyburn.

The fleet subject and the ironborn comes after, followed by the Freys demanding even more rewards. Qyburn warns the council that there is talk in the pot shops and winesinks that the crown was involved with the red wedding. He suggests they perhaps need to take some Frey heads to appear to dispense justice for what the sparrows call an affront to the gods. Both Aurane and Qyburn reference it as the red wedding. Aurane then guides the subject to the Golden Company and Stannis. When the north is dicussed, the council decides they want Lord Wyman Manderly to behead Stannis’s onion smuggler.

“Just this morning there was another bird. Stannis has sent his onion smuggler to treat with White Harbor on his behalf. Manderly has clapped the wretch inside a cell. He asks us what he should do with him.”[..] “I have instructed Lord Manderly to have his head off forthwith. That should put an end to any chance of White Harbor supporting Stannis.”
“Stannis will need another Hand,” observed Aurane Waters with a chuckle. “The turnip knight, perhaps?”
“A turnip knight?” said Ser Harys Swyft, confused. “Who is this man? I have not heard of him.” Waters did not reply, except to roll his eyes. (aFfC, Cersei IV)

Aurane makes an ableist joke here about Stannis and Ser Davos as his Hand. That joke may have earned him Cersei’s trust, but I hope you as reader see that we now have the following subject build up in which Aurane involves himself via dialogue.

  1. new war fleet,
  2. Golden Company coming to Westeros
  3. smuggling “food” (onions) into Storm’s End during Mace Tyrell’s siege

The conversation then moves to Sansa and Jon Snow’s letter as Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch. As the council discusses Jon Snow’s “treason” by giving Stannis land and castles, Aurane suggests that the Crown could recommend the lords of the realm to send their poachers and thieves to Aurane to crew the ships with oarsmen.

“Our new dromonds will need oarsmen,” said Aurane Waters. “Let us instruct the lords to send their poachers and thieves to me henceforth, instead of to the Wall.”
Qyburn leaned forward with a smile. “The Night’s Watch defends us all from snarks and grumkins. My lords, I say that we must help the brave black brothers.”
Cersei gave him a sharp look. “What are you saying?”
“This,” Qyburn said. “For years now, the Night’s Watch has begged for men. Lord Stannis has answered their plea. Can King Tommen do less? His Grace should send the Wall a hundred men. To take the black, ostensibly, but in truth . . .”
“. . . to remove Jon Snow from the command,” Cersei finished, delighted. I knew I was right to want him on my council. (aFfC, Cersei IV)

On the one hand, Aurane’s dismissal of the Wall’s need for his own future ships reflects the negligence of so many, including by Varys. But within the context of the coming together of all the elements of Aegon’s homecoming and successful taking of Storm’s End, this likely foreshadows how Aegon too will ignore the Wall’s plight. But I suspect Aurane’s comment on manning the ships prompting Cersei’s plot to have Jon Snow assassinated is a timing foreshadowing.

If this bastard boy is truly his father’s son, he will not suspect a thing. Perhaps he will even thank me, before the blade slides between his ribs. (aFfC, Cersei IV)

With the “timing” I mean that timeline wise Aegon captures Storm’s End via smuggle route around the moment that Bowen Marsh attempts to assassinate Jon.

Even as the small council is concluded, Aurane adds one more piece of information.

“One last thing, Your Grace,” said Aurane Waters, in an apologetic tone. “I hesitate to take up the council’s time with trifles, but there has been some queer talk heard along the docks of late. Sailors from the east. They speak of dragons . . .”
“. . . and manticores, no doubt, and bearded snarks?” Cersei chuckled. “Come back to me when you hear talk of dwarfs, my lord.” She stood, to signal that the meeting was at an end. (aFfC, Cersei IV)

The content itself is not newsworthy to either the reader or Cersei, but completes the three plot points of Aegon and the Golden Company. It is yet another reference to Varys, specifically with Aurane as a stand-in, because this non-news to the reader was already introduced to Tywin’s small council in aSoS (with Cersei present):

The eunuch drew a parchment from his sleeve. “A kraken has been seen off the Fingers.” He giggled. “Not a Greyjoy, mind you, a true kraken. It attacked an Ibbenese whaler and pulled it under. There is fighting on the Stepstones, and a new war between Tyrosh and Lys seems likely. Both hope to win Myr as ally. Sailors back from the Jade Sea report that a three-headed dragon has hatched in Qarth, and is the wonder of that city—”
“Dragons and krakens do not interest me, regardless of the number of their heads,” said Lord Tywin. (aSoS, Tyrion III)

Overall, Cersei’s small council meeting in aFfC is a mirror of the one with Tywin’s:  discussing alliances with the Greyjoys, the ironmen at Moat Cailin, wildlings, the Wall’s cry for help against the wildlings, krakens, the Vale and who gets to lead it, … In that sense, Cersei’s meeting is a continuation on the Lannister attempts to hold onto power via assassination, treachery and their ineptness at wielding soft power. But that is exactly why it is so interesting that Aurane is the character who gets to say the information updates that Varys volunteered in the above.

We can now conclude on the following 5 tips coalescing with Aurane’s dialogue:

  1. Aurane’s war fleet,
  2. Golden Company coming to Westeros
  3. Storm’s End via smuggle route
  4. around the time of the attempt on Jon Snow’s life
  5. the word “dragon”

Finally, I want to address how Aurane’s dialogue and information sharing matches with Varys’ MO: Varys would flood the consecutive councils with information, from drunken talk in the potshops, to news sailors from Essos. Varys let the king or Hand decide what they consider relevant or not. This created an image of impartiality and therefore reliability. This tactic was how a spymaster – slave born, and foreigner – managed to remain master of whisperers to the Mad King, Aerys’ enemy Robert Baratheon, and the consecutive Hands of the King (Jon Arryn, Eddard Stark, Tyrion and Tywin Lannister).

Once Varys knew what subject piqued a king’s or hand’s interest, this then became his angle to manipulate them, much like a social media algorithm does with us. Varys used the wanderings of Viserys and Danearys as a jangling key for Robert, plots by Cersei against Robert’s life with Ned Stark, critical drunken talk in winesinks with Joffrey, Joffrey’s or Cersei’s schemes to Tyrion … Occasionally, he would still drop some reports on subjects that disinterest the ruler but preserved Varys’ image of impartiality. This way Varys also avoided being accused of having withhold crucial information before their impact was felt in the realm.

I will touch slightly on the claim that Varys “always speaks the truth”. Varys is not a honest person. He is a deceiver. Obviously, whenever he talks, he will lean to the truth as close as possible, for the most practical reason – he cannot afford being caught in a lie. Other readers have pointed this pragmatic tactic out long before me.

Varys is the only one in the books who is actually an intelligence professional. That means he’s the only one who brings a professional’s self-discipline to the job. Littlefinger is good, very good, at it, but he’s a gifted amateur playing for love of the game and it shows. He does and says things just to pat himself on the back and prove to himself how much more clever he is than the dolts he’s using as pawns. Varys never does that. The reason that’s important in this context is that, being a professional, Varys is probably the only one to realize just how damaging being caught in an outright lie could be to his entire operation. (Post by Littlestfinger, June 12, 2014, on Westeros.org on “Varys does not lie. Does he?”

The hardest thing about a lie is remembering it and keeping track of it. So, yes in my opinion Varys tells the truth most of the time. He mostly lies by omission, tweaking words to create the wrong impression or interpretation, and choosing his timing well. Aurane’s hearsay from around the docks serves him in the same way. It is bait to check what Cersei really knows now that she has Qyburn as spymaster and how much she is interested in the various political development in Essos. The sole difference is that Aurane is more willing to mix in a lie (Stannis’ involvement). It serves him, however, because this is how he makes it clear he is not serving Stannis anymore.  And if he switched his allegiance from Stannis to Varys’ Aegon, then this is the truth at heart of it all. Similarly, Varys used news on Dany and Viserys to appear disloyal to the dragons, while his loyalty is to another dragon.

A Bastard’s Motive

Most readers consider Aurane mostly an opportunist who shops around or is for sale to whomever promises him the biggest reward. For example, BryndenBFish proposes that initially Aurane may have sought to curry favour with Stannis, because of his meritocratic leanings. He rewarded Davos – commoner and smuggler – first with knighthood and later lordship. And only a king can legitimize a bastard. So, Aurane may have hoped to be rewarded Driftmark in case his half-brother Monford Velaryon died during the course of the war. But his capture at the Blackwater intervened with this, and then he attampted to ingratiate himself with the Tyrells, etc. Varys supposedly noticed this from a distance and bought Aurane with promises. The issue I have with this take is that it relies on the facade of Aurane as conman, rather than agent, and ignores several of the literary links George is establishing to a deeper motive.

It must be said that we only acquired enough background information to consider alternative motives instead of opportunism, since the various publications about the Dance of the Dragons: the novelettes The Princess and the Queen (December 3, 2013), The Rogue Prince (June 17, 2014), the coffee table book The World of Ice and Fire (October 28th, 2014) and Fire and Blood (November 20th, 2018). BryndenBfish’s proposal of 2016 had enough information to question this image of the opportunist, but not enough to come with a well founded alternative. Fire and Blood reveals Alyn “Oakenfist” Velaryon’s chosen epitath for his brother’s grave – loyal. 

I think that Aurane’s motive is loyalty: to his late brother, to Driftmark, to his nephew, to the legacy and ancestry of House Velaryion, to the Prince of Dragonstone, to house Targaryen. And I believe that Alyn Oakenfist is his personal hero. I know that sounds the furthest from how you perceive Aurane, but I would not make this claim if there is no foundation for this in text, through background, symbolism, literary referencing and logic.

Driftmark?

Going home and acquiring the homeland is at least the goal of Aegon, Jon Connington and the Golden Company. So it is not without reason to suppose Aurane wants his home Driftmarke. But if ever Aurane had a chance to gain Driftmark as a seat that opportunity presented itself when he was Cersei’s admiral. All those who remained loyal to Stannis after the Battle of the Blackwater were stripped of their seats and lands by King Joffrey and his Hand Tywin Lannister. These seats were given to other men either in writing or by force, in the Crownlands, the Riverlands and Stormlands, regardless who occupies it currently.  The taking, sieging and gifting of castles, lands is a recurring theme in the very small council we already analysed. The Freys want even more seats. Jon Snow is a traitor in their eyes for gifting Stannis castles and land. Heck, they even discuss carving up the North in two to give one half to the ironborn and the other half to House Bolton.  But quite notably Driftmark is never one of those seats!

According to the appendix of aSoS and Stannis the Lord of Tides is Aurane’s nephew, the prior Lord Monford’s son Monterys (six years old). Lke his father, Monterys still supports Stannis: Jon sees the Driftmark seahorse banners amongst Stannis’ army as it descends on Mance Rayder’s host at the Wall. And regardless whether Monterys is at Driftmark or in the North, Cersei spells out that Lord Waters is an empty honor, because he has no lands or castle.

Rosby’s gold would help refresh their coffers, and Rosby’s lands and castle could be bestowed upon one of her own as a reward for leal service. Lord Waters, perhaps. Aurane had been hinting at his need for a seat; his lordship was only an empty honor without one. He had his eye on Dragonstone, Cersei knew, but there he aimed too high. Rosby would be more suitable to his birth and station. (aFfC, Cersei IX)

Cersei claims that Aurane wants Dragonstone but considers gifting him the Rosby lands and castle instead. So, Aurane clearly failed to mention Driftmark by name. Can there be any doubt that if Aurane had requested for Driftmark, that Cersei would have gifted Driftmark’s seat on paper instantly, when it was in the hands of a child lord who supported Stannis? Of course not.

Perhaps, Aurane hinted at Driftmark without naming it, and Cersei mistook it to mean Dragonstone, because she seems obtuse to these matters overall, despite the fact that she knows he is referred to as the bastard of Driftmark. That argument seems to hold up until we consider that Aurane’s non-mention of Driftmark is matched by non-action in physically taking Driftmark once he sails off with the dromonds. Instead he sails for the Stepstones.

I tend to take Cersei’s certainty about Aurane wanting Dragonstone with a big grain of salt. Not because I doubt that Aurane may have asked for or hinted at Dragonstone. But because I think that if he did, it was part of the plan to facilitate the return for Aegon and Dany, not for himself. Despite the fact that Dragonstone was “captured” and Paxter Redwyne sailed off for the Reach, Aurane himself did not sail with Cersei’s monstrous new war ships to Dragonstone, but sailed for the Stepstones.

The Bastards

The contradiction about Aurane supposedly wanting land with the title, but being absolutely fine wit just taking a war fleet and sail off to the Stepstones to be Lord of the Waters opens the door to the possiblity that Aurane Waters stayed true and loyal to the family he grew up with, despite being a rogue and thief (towards the Lannisters). Is it that unheard of that bastards may be loyal to their house? Jon Snow refused Stannis’s offer of Winterfell, though in his heart he desires it. Taking it from his half-sisters feels like a betrayal to him, even if they are wed to a Lannister (or Bolton). Jon Snow could only ever accept Winterfell as his seat if it was a Stark’s dying wish. Could Aurane Waters may have similar loyalties to House Velaryon and the son of his late half brother?

Perhaps you consider the comparison between Aurane and Jon laughable. But let me remind you that Aurane did ask for the poachers and thieves normally sent to the Wall to be sent to him instead. We can view that as wrong and villainous, because the Wall is in need of defending. Simultaneously, in a literary sense, George manoevered the reader to consider Aurane as commanding a penal colony, which is Jon’s role. And without Jon’s POV we might end up believing Jon is an opportunistic traitor who killed his brother Qhorin halfhand to be a wildling, around the same time that Aurane bends the knee to Joffrey. My point is that what we saw and heard about Aurane in aFfC through Cersei’s POV may compare to how the reader would perceive Jon Snow if Mance had been the POV in aSoS.

Do we have any indications that Aurane and his half brother grew up together? At least, Aurane’s nickname, the bastard of Driftmark, indicates that he grew up at Driftmark, alongside his trueborn sibling, not unlike Jon Snow and Ned Stark’s trueborn children. Aurane and his half brother never appear together on page, but then Lord Monford and Aurane appear on page only a handful of times in total in aCoK. Do these glimpses give us enough indication what type of relation these two may have had?

We are first introduced to House Velaryon in Cressen’s Prologue. As supporter of Stannis since the early hour, Lord Monford Velaryon is present at the feast when Cressen attempts to poison Melisandre. We get a short description of his looks and attire.

Cressen looked over the knights and captains and lords sitting silent. […] Handsome Lord Velaryon chose sea-green silk, the white gold seahorse at his throat matching his long fair hair. (aCoK, Prologue)

A close up portrait of a handsome man with long silver-blonde hair separated in the middle, and draped across his broad shoulders. He wears a teal green silk shirt or tunic, finished with golden thread embroidery at the rims and a brooch of a silver seahore. He sits in front of a window with view on a castle or fort with square towers on an island or cliff in the distance. We also see some of the water that surround the castle.
Monford Velaryon. Generated by Elio M. García, Jr.. using Stable Diffusion, an AI art generation software, and is published in accordance with its license. (I prefer artwork from actual artists, and will replace this AI generated portrait gladly if a quality alternative becomes available)

Stannis claims to Cressen that Monford is impatient to attack and to Davos that he believes only steel will decide the matter, not words on parchment. He reveals that Monford together with Salla advized Stannis to sail against Joffrey instead of trying to take Storm’s End. He also predicts that Velaryon would all be for scaling the walls of Storm’s End to take the castle. All of this is hearsay, though they portray Lord Monford as a young impatient brave man, eager for battle and making a name for himself.

Lord Monford is vey much a background character, but there is one interesting contradicton about him. When the Lord of Driftmark attended the burning of the Seven at Dragonstone, Davos notes how he watches Stannis more than the spectacle and he believes Lord Velaryion would consider the onion knight to be beneath him.

[…] and Lord Velaryon was watching the king rather than the conflagration. Davos would have given much to know what he was thinking, but one such as Velaryon would never confide in him. The Lord of the Tides was of the blood of ancient Valyria, and his House had thrice provided brides for Targaryen princes;  (aCoK, Davos I)

And yet, Davos may be mistaken, because this happens after the burning of the Seven.

When Davos arrived at the Stone Drum, a dozen highborn knights and great bannermen were just leaving. Lords Celtigar and Velaryon each gave him a curt nod and walked on while the others ignored him utterly, but Ser Axell Florent stopped for a word. (aCoK, Davos I)

Monford is one of the very few men who recognizes his existence, alongside Lord Celtigar of another ancient house with old Valyrian blood. This is contrasted against lickspittle Ser Axell Florent who is overly familiar to Davos, and contrasted against the majority of lords ignoring Davos completely. In other words, with that one nod, Monford signals he regards Davos Seaworth his equal or peer, despite his birth status. If so, then Lord Monford shares Stannis’ pencheant for meritocracy and that he had similar sentiments about his half brother.

Of course, Monford’s views may not have been shared equally by Aurane. Aurane’s ableist remark about Stannis requiring a new Hand for example, may be a sign that Aurane feels superior over Davos in a manner that his brother Monford did not. But Stannis was more the butt of his joke and Aurane must distance himself verbally from Stannis at the Small Council meeting.

Admitedly, the bastard of Driftmark is not present alongside Lord Velaryon on Dragonstone during the feast and meeting with Stannis. But that does not negate the two men may have an amical relationship. Jon was kept out of royal sight at feasts and hunts during Robert’s visit of Winterfell, because Ned Stark wanted to keep people from wondering about Jon’s parentage – out of sight, out of mind. Remember that during this feast Stannis claims he is king over Joffrey, because the latter is Cersei’s bastard of incest. Lord Velaryon would have been foolish to insist that his bastard brother get a seat at the dais during meetings where Joffrey’s bastardry is part of the dais talk. Clearly, Aurane would have to get noticed by merit first with Stannis. Aside from youth, this might have added to Monford’s impatience to see battle.

While prejudice against bastards is prevalent, some regions and houses recognize  and thank their house’s survival and honor on an ancestor who was bastard born. House Velaryon is such a one. Their ancestor is not some Brandon Stark in tales forgotten like that of Bael the bard, but in a recent, publically and historically recognized lineage deeply tied to the Dance of the Dragons, the civil war between the Blacks and Greens. The current house Velaryon descends from Alyn “Oakenfist” Velaryon, the legitimized bastard Alyn of Hull. He became Lord of the Tides after the death of Lord Corlys “the Seasnake” Velaryon. The manner in which he became the lord and seafaring hero would make any descendant proud that this bastard was their ancestor. If there might have been shame and hiding of bastards before the Dance of the Dragons with House Velaryon, Alyn certainly would have promoted inclusion of the children parented out of wedlock.

Alyn Velaryon and Aliandre Martell, by Martina Fackova
How Alyn of Hull became Corlys Velaryon’s heir

Corlys Velaryon was the husband of princess Rhaenys Targaryen, the Queen Who Never Was. They had two children, Laenor and Laena Velaryon. Laenor was Rhaenyra’s spouse and officially the father of her first three sons – Jacaerys, Lucerys and Joffrey Velaryon. However, Rhaenyra’s sons looked suspiciously more like Rhaenyra’s sworn shield Ser Harwin Strong and Laenor Velaryon was rumored or known to be gay. Laena was Daemon Targaryen’s second wife. They had two daughters, Baela and Rhaena Targaryen.

Laenor and Laena died in short succession at the start of 120 AC. And when Corlys fell gravely ill in 126 AC, his eldest “grandson” Jacaerys Velaryon stood to inherit. But he was also Rhaenyra’s heir to the throne. So, Rhaenyra suggested that Lucerys should be named heir to Driftmark. Corlys’ nephew, Vaemond Velaryon publically claimed Rhaenyra’s eldest three sons had been fathered by Harwin Strong, and lost his head for the treason. The remaining five nephews of Corlys petitioned their case with the crown and King Viserys had their tongues for it, to be forever known as the Silent Five.

Lucerys Velaryon did not surive long enough to actually inherit Driftmark. He died at the onset of the Dance, when Aemond Targaryen chased him on Vhagar after a diplomatic mission at Storm’s End. During the Sowing (the search for dragonriders for the Blacks), Marilda of Hull proclaimed her two sons were fathered by Laenor – Addam (15) and Alyn of Hull (13 or 14). Many believe they were Corlys’ bastard sons rather than his grandsons. Crucial is that Marilda of Hull came out to declare them Laenor’s sons only after Rhaenys’ death at Rook’s Rest. Corlys pressed for them to be legitimized by Rhaenyra (as Queen) and she relented. As such, Corlys named Addam of Hull – who claimed Laenor’s Seasmoke – his new heir.

After two of Rhaenyra’s dragonseeds betrayed her to join Prince Daeron Targaryen and the Greens at Tumbleton, a paranoid Rhaenyra ordered Addam Velaryon preemptively arrested for harsh questioning. Corlys warned Addam before he could be arrested and Addam fled on Seasmoke. For this Corlys was thrown in a cell while Addam gathered an army of four thousand from the Gods Eye to attack Tumbleton at night and prove his loyalty to Rhaenyra. He won, but at the cost of his own life. Inthe end, the Sea Snake outlived both Rhaenyra and Aegon II. He died in 132 AC and Addam’s brother, Alyn “Oakenfist” Velaryon, née Alyn of Hull, was the sole “direct” heir left.

But even this was not without contest. The silent five had fought on the side of the Greens and two of them survived the Dance: Ser Malentine and Ser Rhogar Velaryon. They petitioned with Aegon III to be recognized as Corlys’ heirs. After their request was denied, they plotted to assassinate Alyn. Malentine died in the attempt, while Ser Rhogar was taken by the Driftmark guards. The latter was condemned to death but took the black. After which Alyn’s lordship was uncontested.

The Loyalty of a seahorse
A woman in trousers and long brown hair all the way to the small of her back stands with her back to the viewer at a rocky shore and gravestone that has the word "loyal" written on it. Beyond the grave is a choppy sea with a fleet of ships and the sunlight near the horizon breaking through the clouds of a grey sky. Painted.
Marilda the Bold, by Aria Phan aka Dragonsaria, depicting Marilda of Hull standing at the grave of her son Addam of Hull Velaryon

If Aurane grew up at Driftmark, as his nickname implies, then he would have been familiar with the histories and ancestors of House Velaryon and we could assume that especially the story of Alyn of Hull would be one of his favourites. And it is safe to presume that Aurane knows of the story of Addam and Alyn about loyalty. Rhaenyra’s fears of betrayal by the dragonseeds led to Addam being accused of planning treason, Corlys Velaryon’s imprisonment and Addam’s suicadal victory over the Greens at Tumbleton. When finally Addam’s bones were returned to Driftmark, his brother Lord Alyn Velarion raised a grave and had only one word written on it – Loyal.

At moonrise the riverlords abandoned the field to the carrion crows, fading back into the hills. One of them, the boy Ben Blackwood, carried with him the broken body of Ser Addam Velaryon, found dead beside his dragon.
His bones would rest at Raventree Hall for eight years, but in 138 AC his brother, Alyn, would have them returned to Driftmark and entombed in Hull, the town of his birth. On his tomb is engraved a single word: LOYAL. Its ornate letters are supported by carvings of a seahorse and a mouse. (Fire and Blood – The Dying of the Dragons)

That site of the gravestone must still exist. Even if Aurane was not close with Lord Monford or not instructed by a maester, even smallfolk would tell tales. Once George published this background detail for bastards of House Velaryon and had a memorial erected for it on the island, it became relevant to what could motivate or influence Aurane Waters.

heraldry: a knight's helm with vizor up, and leafs in aquamarine (teal or seagreen) and a shield in front of it with a golden border, aquamarin background and silver seahorse (Aquamarine, a seahorse argent), and an unfurling banner or scarf with the motto words "The Old, the True, the Brave"
Heraldry of House Velaryon, Aquamarine, a seahorse argent and house motto “The Old, the True, the Brave”, source Heraldry section of the Citadel of Westeros.org

While the motto of House Velaryon is “The Old, the True, the Brave“, one could say that the motto for the bastards of Driftmark is LOYAL, with capital letters. Alongside the word loyal on Addam’s gravestone were carved a seahorse and a mouse. Basically it implies Addam’s parentage of a Velaryon, as the seahorse is the sigil of House Velaryon and Marilda of Hull, whose nickname was Mouse. Her merchant cog on which she brought Aegon II back to King’s Landing from Dragonstone, after Rhaenyra’s death was also called Mouse. And she built House Mouse as a manse overlooking Hull on the island of Driftmark.

In the essays of The Trail of the Red Stallion I established how George uses horses as a mirror or hint about the characters that ride it. In its most general view, horses are stand-in for people. In this sense the seahorse is a symbolic play on sea-people or mariners. We should pay attention to the names of their ships, as much as we should with the equivalent of character’s horses. Moreover, in the essay about Dany being Saint George’s true dragon, I argue that Dany’s silver horse are her wings to her dragonriding soul. I also show how ships are dragons with sails for wings. So, a silver seahorsetherefore symbolizes a sea dragon, or a family of seafarers with dragonblood ties to Targaryens who exchanged the batwings of dragons for sails and oars. 

Lord Monford is present at the Battle of the Blackwater and at Dragonstone with four of his war galleys: Pride of Driftmark, Bold Laughter, Harridan and Seahorse.

Wooden wings had sprouted from the Wraith and Lady Marya as well. The three galleys kept pace, their blades churning the water. “Slow cruise,” Davos called. Lord Velaryon’s silver-hulled Pride of Driftmark had moved into her position to port of Wraith, and Bold Laughter was coming up fast, but Harridan was only now getting her oars into the water and Seahorse was still struggling to bring down her mast. (aCoK, Davos III)

Lord Monford captains the Pride of Driftmark, and since he perishes with his silver-hulled flagship during the Battle of the Blackwater, it is implied he is the perished pride of House Velaryon. Add Bold Laughter and Harridan (synonym to hag or crone), and we have House Velaryon’s motto of “the Old, the True, the Brave”. Bold is often seen as brave and a harridan usually means an old woman. During the battle of the Blackwater, a trebuchet’s boulder did for Bold Laughter, while Harridan burned down.

On the walls of King’s Landing, spitfires were belching death, and the great trebuchets behind the Mud Gate were throwing boulders. One the size of an ox crashed down between Black Betha and Wraith, rocking both ships and soaking every man on deck. Another, not much smaller, found Bold Laughter. The Velaryon galley exploded like a child’s toy dropped from a tower, spraying splinters as long as a man’s arm. […`] Fifty feet high, a swirling demon of green flame danced upon the river. It had a dozen hands, in each a whip, and whatever they touched burst into fire. He saw Black Betha burning, and White Hart and Loyal Man to either side. Piety, Cat, Courageous, Sceptre, Red Raven, Harridan, Faithful, Fury, they had all gone up, Kingslander and Godsgrace as well, the demon was eating his own. Lord Velaryon’s shining Pride of Driftmark was trying to turn, but the demon ran a lazy green finger across her silvery oars and they flared up like so many tapers. For an instant she seemed to be stroking the river with two banks of long bright torches. (aCoK, Davos III)

Seahorse seems to have survived the inferno. It is as if House Velaryon is stripped of its formal words and the bare essential. And that means the word on the gravestone, “Loyal”, is all that remains. And indeed in the lost Bold Laughter we have a tie to the ancestral Oakenfist: Alyn commanded a merchant fleet to Dorne and the Free Cities on Bold Marilda. Even if pride and bold laughter was lost, the foundation remained, even for Aurane who was captured. For a silver seahorse is like a wingless bat (dragon), a mouse.

So where lies House Velaryon’s loyalty really? To the Iron Throne, the Lord of Dragonstone, the Faith or the Valyrian blood? Officially and historically they serve Dragonstone. But I would argue that ultimately a Velaryon’s loyalty is rooted in the blood of Old Valyria. They themselves are Valyrian as is House Celtigar.

The Velaryons came from old Valyrian stock, however, and some had the same silvery hair as the dragonkings of old. (aFfC, Cersei III)

It is not exactly known when House Velaryon or Celtigar settled on their respective islands of Blackwater Bay, but we do know it was well before House Targaryen moved to Dragonstone. Twelve years before the Doom of Valyaria, the Targaryens resettled from Old Valyria onto Dragonstone on account of the dreams that Daenys the Dreamer had about what would befall the peninsula of Valyria. The Doom of Valyria occurred in 102 BC, so little over 4 centuries ago. That means House Targaryen moved to Dragonstone in 114 BC. But they did not build the castle of Dragonstone. It was built by the dragonlords of Valyria two centuries prior to this.

Perhaps in preparation for their crossing of  the narrow sea, the Valyrians also established their westernmost outpost on the isle that would come to be known as Dragonstone some two hundred years before the Doom. No king opposed them — and though the local lords of the narrow sea made some effort to resist it, the strength of Valyria was too great. With their arcane arts, the Valyrians raised the Citadel at Dragonstone. Two centuries passed—centuries in which the coveted Valyrian steel began to trickle into the Seven Kingdoms more swiftly than before—though not swiftly enough for all the lords and kings who desired it. And although the sight of a dragonlord flying high above Blackwater Bay was not unknown, it occurred more frequently as time passed. Valyria felt its outpost was secured, and the dragonlords thus continued their schemes and intrigues on their native continent. (tWoIaF – Ancient History: The Doom of Valyria)

So, about six centuries before the current events (so 300 BC) a westernmost outpost was created on Dragonstone as was the castle by the dragonlords of Valyria. And it was not a permanent residence for any dragonlord family until the Targaryens decided to relocate there. If we look at the map, we see that Driftmark acts like a shield for Dragonstone against any threat from Duskendale or Massey’s Hook. Meanwhile Celtigar’s Claw Isle can forewarn threats sailing from the Vale or Maidenpool. So, while the Velaryons certainly had a commercial benefit in settling on Driftmark this close to Duskendale, they no doubt patrolled the Gullet to prevent Westerosi from inspecting Dragonstone for dragon eggs.

Blackwater Bay from King's Landing to Massey's Hook, Driftmark, Dragonstone and Claw Isle south of Cracklaw Point
Blackwater Bay from King’s Landing to Massey’s Hook, Driftmark, Dragonstone and Claw Isle south of Cracklaw Point (The Lands of Ice and Fire maps, The West)

House Velaryon is historically sworn to Dragonstone. We tend to take this in the feudal sense of a vassal to his lord. Once Stannis is Lord or Prince of Dragonstone, it therefore is logical to expect House Velaryion to be loyal to Stannis. It works fine from the current feudal position they have in relation to Dragonstone, since the conquering. But if House Velaryon acted as a military marine shield for Dragonstone – an island where dragonlords could hatch or preserve clutches of dragon eggs outside of Valyria – before the Doom of Valyria even, before the Targaryens claimed lordship over the volcanic island, then their fealty and loyalty is not just to the one who is named Lord of Dragonstone, but to Valyrian dragonlord blood. The Doom simplified it by making the Targaryens the sole dragonlord family to survive, and Aegon’s conquering brought this relation with House Velaryon into the  feudal framing of a kingdom. After the conquering, Dragonstone remained a secondary home to Targaryens – usually serving as a home to the heir to the Iron Throne or the next in line – as well as an island where dragons would lay their clutches of dragon eggs.

So, it seems to me that House Velaryon settled onto Driftmark at the latest around the time the dragonlords picked Dragonstone as an outpost, to act as a mariner shield, and control trade of Valyrian steel this close to Duskendale, Gulltown and Maidenpool. And their first settling on Driftmark may predate that moment by several generations. The fact that the seat of the Velaryons is called the Driftwood Throne and the settlement is tied to a legend of the Merling King seems to indicate this.

Corlys Velaryon became a lord after his grandsire’s death and used his wealth to raise a new seat, High Tide, to replace the damp, cramped castle Driftmark and house the ancient Driftwood Throne—the high seat of the Velaryons, which legend claims was given to them by the Merling King to conclude a pact. (tWoIaF – The Targaryen Kings: Jaehaerys I)

Nobody refers to a seat as a throne, unless they were regarded at least a petty king at some point. The legend of the Merling King helps House Velaryon in creating an image where they never aspired to be more than the Dragonlords of Valyria. Nevertheless they might have, once, before the dragonlords scouted out Dragonstone as outpost. The Merling King is a legendary god tied to the Narrow Sea, beyond the Blackwater Bay, predating the Faith of the Seven. While the Andals were still conquering all of the Vale, a sorceress on Witch Isle, Ursula Upcliff, called herself the bride of the Merling King.

By that time the Andals controlled threequarters of the Vale and had begun to fight amongst themselves, as had the First Men before them. Robar Royce saw opportunity in their disunity. Across the Vale, a handful of First Men still held out against the Andals; the Redforts of Redfort, the Hunters of Longbow Hall, the Belmores of Strongsong, and the Coldwaters of Coldwater Burn chief amongst them. One by one, Robar made alliance with each of them, and many smaller clans and houses besides, bringing them to his cause with marriages, grants of land, gold, and (in one celebrated case) by outshooting the Lord Hunter in an archery contest (legend claims that King Robar cheated). So honeyed was his tongue that he even won the allegiance of Ursula Upcliff, a reputed sorceress who called herself bride of the Merling King. (tWoIaF – The Vale)

This makes me believe that House Velaryon settled on Driftmark before the Faith of the Seven was widely followed south of the Riverlands, the Crownlands and the Stormlands. This would explain why the Velaryons used a local seagod as the one who gifted them the right to rule Blackwater Bay from Driftmark. This would be the god the smallfolk, petty kings and lords of the surrounding area would have heeded. All of this explains why Lord Monford ignores the burning of the Seven at Dragonstone, but instead watches Stannis Baratheon instead. It would also be a possible motive for a ship to be called Harridan instead of Crone.

Regardless, the Andals (Qarlong the Great) and their faith were eventually destroyed by dragonlords of Valyria during the Scouring of Lorath, before the Boash settled in Lorath around 1436 BC, even after the Andals had started to conquer Westeros. So, a Valyrian house that sails and resides near the harbor of Duskendale of House Darklyn (First Men) would not have felt the need to follow the Faith before the Conquering. Aegon the Conquerer’s descendants only adopt the Faith to smoothen their rule over Westeros. As global seafaring adventures, the Velaryons lack the specific incentive to be followers of the Faith other than performative.

Of course, House Velaryon is not without its personal ambition, and some Velaryons pursued ambitions that made them act against the Targaryen seated on Dragonstone and even the lord of Driftmark. While the Sea Snake was loyal to Daemon and Rhaenyra, his nephews, the silent five, acted against Rhaenyra, both when she is Princess of Dragonstone as well as crowned Queen. They fought alongside Aegon II, all in the hope to acquire Driftmark.

During Aerys II’s reign and the Year of the False Spring, Lord Lucerys Velaryon is one of the lickspittles who spoke ill of Rhaegar, the Prince of Dragonstone. He helped to fan the hostilities between the mad king and his heir. It is unclear what befell Lord Lucerys during the rebellion, for now. Although it is safe to assume that if he survived the rebellion, he likely was part of the royal fleet at Dragonstone that was smashed in the storm during Dany’s birth. We do not know the relation between Lucerys and Monford, but we do know that by 299 AC Stannis defines Monford as a young lord, who is eager to see battle. This means that Monford was a child still himself during Robert’s Rebellion, like Aurane was.

By the time the series of aSoIaF starts though, the three brothers Baratheon are the ones left closest to the dragon blood in Westeros, and Stannis takes the seat of Dragonstone. Once Lord Monford accepted that Joffrey was not Robert’s, then Stannis was the one with the most dragonlord blood. In that sense, Lord Monford studying Stannis during Mel’s burning of the Seven rather the burning effigees could be interpreted as him looking at the last of the dragonlord blood using fire and blood magic.

If Aurane remained loyal to House Velaryon and the Targaryen blood, then his bending the knee to Joffrey after captivity would seem to oppose it. I already pointed out, however, it can be seen as a parallel to Jon joining the wildlings and the King Beyond the Wall, Mance Rayder. If this parallel holds, and consider “loyalty” as motive for Aurane, and not opportunism, we realize how and when Varys recruited Aurane Waters. Varys approached and recruited Aurane as Rugen after Aurane was captured, but before he swore failty to Joffrey.

Note though that Varys did not recruit Aurane from a black cell: only Ned Stark, Pycelle, Tyrion Lannister and the three men Ned gave to Yoren to take to the Wall  – Rorge, Biter and Jaquen H’ghar – were held there.

Longwaters scratched his nose. “Rugen was here when need be, my lord. That must be said. The black cells are little used. Before your lordship’s little brother was sent down, we had Grand Maester Pycelle for a time, and before him Lord Stark the traitor. There were three others, common men, but Lord Stark gave them to the Night’s Watch. I did not think it good to free those three, but the papers were in proper order. I made note of that in a report as well, you may be certain of it.” (aFfC, Jaime II)

None of the captives of the Battle of the Blackwater were prisoners in the black cells.  But there are other high level cells in the dungeon and since there were so many captives at the Battle of the Blackwater, a great many may have been kept penned together in the field outside the city walls under the watch of Gold Cloaks, Lannister and Tyrell soldiers. The undergoaler disuigse of Rugen or any other of his could work in any of those settings for Varys to move freely amongst the captives.

And it is easy to see how Varys’ would remind Aurance that like Alyn Velaryon he could save the honor of his House and ancestry by helping the dragons return to the Iron Throne if only he chose to bend the knee to Joffrey and live, instead of choosing death.

You might argue that at this point, Varys could not be certain of Aurane’s trustworthiness to reveal Aegon’s existence to him. But Varys could at this point in time reveal that Dany had hatched dragons, was in Qarth and would sail for Pentos soon. Around the same time of Aurane’s capture, Selmy Barristan arrived in Qarth with Belwas and three cogs to take Dany and her baby dragons to Pentos and Illyrio. If Selmy had the time to sail for Qarth once Illyrio discovered Dany’s whereabouts and her having hatched dragons, then Illyrio had time to send news to Varys once the blockade on King’s Landing was lifted.

“Which plan?” said Tristan Rivers. “The fat man’s plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons.” (aDwD, The Lost Lord)

It would not be the first time that Varys successfully persuaded someone into pretending to be someone or act in a manner against their honor. He convinced

  • Ned Stark into admitting to treason, into lying, for the sake of his daughter’s life and the promise he could take the black.
  • Jon Connington in going along with the lie and story that he stole from the Golden Company and drank himself to death.

Of course, while this is a possible scenario, and we do not have direct evidence that Varys had any contact with Aurane during this timeline. I admit that just because Varys could, that does not mean he would. It is a possible speculative scenario. That does not mean we have no indirect indications that would support this speculative scenario. Remember the quote about who was in the black cells? This came up during a conversation between Jaime and Renniger Longwaters. And that conversation is by itself a very interesting literary device.

Rugen and Rennifer Longwaters

Varys’ alter ego Rugen leads to another golden nugget – Rennifer Longwaters. Jaime interrogates the latter to “learn” more about Rugen. The scene and the dialogue itself seems needless filler.

  • We know who Rugen was, since the time Varys visited Ned Stark in his black cell in aGoT.
  • Jaime knows who Rugen is, because he ordered Varys to rescue Tyrion from his cell in aSoS.

Nevertheless, Jaime goes through the motions of investigating Rugen and so George introduces us to Rennifer Longwaters.

“And the missing gaoler.”
“Rugen,” the old man supplied. “An undergaoler. He had charge of the third level, the black cells.”
“Tell me of him,” Jaime had to say. A bloody farce. He knew who Rugen was, even if Longwaters did not.
“Unkempt, unshaven, coarse of speech. I misliked the man, ’tis true, I do confess it. Rugen was here when I first came, twelve years past. He held his appointment from King Aerys. The man was seldom here, it must be said. I made note of it in my reports, my lord. I most suredly did, I give you my word upon it, the word of a man with royal blood.” (aFfC, Jaime I)

Now, why would George RR Martin take the time to give us these details? I propose the important information here is not so much Rugen, but Rennifer Longwaters.

“I see you wonder, what sort of name is that?” the man had cackled when Jaime went to question him. “It is an old name, ’tis true. I am not one to boast, but there is royal blood in my veins. I am descended from a princess. My father told me the tale when I was a tad of a lad.” Longwaters had not been a tad of a lad for many a year, to judge from his spotted head and the white hairs growing from his chin. “She was the fairest treasure of the Maidenvault. Lord Oakenfist the great admiral lost his heart to her, though he was married to another. She gave their son the bastard name of ‘Waters’ in honor of his father, and he grew to be a great knight, as did his own son, who put the ‘Long’ before the ‘Waters’ so men might know that he was not basely born himself. So I have a little dragon in me.” (aFfC, Jaime II)

The Velaryon family tree, source a Wiki of Ice and Fire

Rennifer’s ancestral princess was Elaena Targaryen, daughter of Aegon III and Daenaera Velaryon, granddaughter of Vaemond Velaryon, who once challenged the potential inheritance of Driftmark during Corlys’ illness and was killed by Daemon Targaryen for it. Nevertheless, Rhaenyra’s first son with Daemon, Aegon III, wed Vaemond’s granddaughter, as the Sea Snake was her great grand uncle.

Daenaera Velaryon presented on Maiden Day’s Ball by Dough Whitley

Daenaera Velaryon and Aegon III Targaryen had five children: Daeron I Targaryen who first conquered Dorne, Baelor the Blessed, and three daughters (Daena, Rhaena and Elaena).

  • Daeron I died in Dorne before being wed or fathering any children.
  • Baelor the Blessed was wed to his sister Daena, but he never consummated it and locked all three of his sisters in the Maidenvault.
  • Rhaena was as pious as Baelor and became a septa.
  • But the other two daughters were not pious. Daena Targaryen slepth with her cousin Aegon (later known as Aegon IV the Unworthy), resulting in Daemon Blackfyre and his line.
  • Daena’s younger sister Elaena had several husbands and seven children. Two of her children were born out of wedlock, fathered by Alyn Oakenfist when he had an affair with Elaena.

By then Alyn had been Lord of the Tides for over forty years. Elaena had hoped that Alyn would marry her, but he left on his last voyage and was lost at sea. She had twins, Jon and Jeyne Waters. Jon Waters grew up to be the “famous knight”, while Jon’s trueborn son changed the name to Longwaters. So, not only was Elaena herself half Velaryon, so were her children with Alyn.

Elaena Targaryen by Magali Villeneuve

Rennifer not only connects back to Alyn Velaryon, but also to bastards of the name Waters. Just look at Jaime’s ironic response to Rennifer’s lineage reveal.

“Yes, I almost mistook you for Aegon the Conqueror,” Jaime had answered. “Waters” was a common bastard name about Blackwater Bay; old Longwaters was more like to be descended from some minor household knight than from a princess. “As it matters, though, I have more pressing concerns than your lineage.” (aFfC, Jaime I)

Jaime jokes that he almost mistook Rennifer for Aegon the Conquerer, though of course he looks nothing like a Targaryen. But another Waters does compare enough for Cersei to think of Rhaegar Targaryen.

The other cousin, Elinor, was sharing a cup of wine with the handsome young Bastard of Driftmark, Aurane Waters. It was not the first time the queen had made note of Waters, a lean young man with grey-green eyes and long silver-gold hair. The first time she had seen him, for half a heartbeat she had almost thought Rhaegar Targaryen had returned from the ashes. (aFfC, Cersei III)

Rennifer seems prone to boast about his royal drop of blood any chance he gets. Through the years, Varys as Rugen must have heard it mentioned often and repeatedly. While Jaime might not be interested in such a pedigree, it would have piqued Varys’ interest. And it would have prepared Varys into prospecting House Velaryon’s potential use, long before Aurane was captured. So, Varys knew which arguments to use to influence the bastard of Driftmark, promise him recognition and a future like that of the Oakenfist.

And George certainly wanted to plant a seed here for us of a Waters looking like a Targaryen who is a descendant of Alyn Velaryon, a legitimized bastard of Driftmark who helped return a lost Targaryen, in connection to Varys’ secret identity Rugen and a conquering Aegon. Hmmmm.

Bending the knee

Cersei mistaking Aurane Waters for Rhaegar is not just a parallel to Jaime’s sceptical remark of believing Rennifer Longwaters to be Aegon the Conquerer. It also points to the scene in which Aurane Waters was first introduced to the reader.

The first time she had seen him, for half a heartbeat she had almost thought Rhaegar Targaryen had returned from the ashes. (aFfC, Cersei III)

This first time would have been in the throne room, when Aurane was one of the captives who had to choose between bending the knee to Joffrey or die.

For now the coin was turned over, and the captives were ushered in. There were great lords and noble knights in that company too: sour old Lord Celtigar, the Red Crab; Ser Bonifer the Good; Lord Estermont, more ancient even than Celtigar; Lord Varner, who hobbled the length of the hall on a shattered knee, but would accept no help; Ser Mark Mullendore, grey-faced, his left arm gone to the elbow; fierce Red Ronnet of Griffin Roost; Ser Dermot of the Rainwood; Lord Willum and his sons Josua and Elyas; Ser Jon Fossoway; Ser Timon the Scrapesword; Aurane, the bastard of Driftmark; Lord Staedmon, called Pennylover; hundreds of others.
Those who had changed their allegiance during the battle needed only to swear fealty to Joffrey, but the ones who had fought for Stannis until the bitter end were compelled to speak. Their words decided their fate. If they begged forgiveness for their treasons and promised to serve loyally henceforth, Joffrey welcomed them back into the king’s peace and restored them to all their lands and rights. A handful remained defiant, however. “Do not imagine this is done, boy,” warned one, the bastard son of some Florent or other. “The Lord of Light protects King Stannis, now and always. All your swords and all your scheming shall not save you when his hour comes.”(aCoK, Sansa VIII)

Notice how Sansa uses the phrase “the coin was turned over“. And well, Varys did leave a golden coin in Rugen’s cell, which already implied Taena Merryweather as Varys’ agent to the reader. Aurane Waters is the other side of the same coin being hinted at via Rennifer Longwaters, and thus a second agent.

It is tempting to skip the above scene for analysis, because it mostly just appears to be nothing more than a bunch of names. And yet, the first one to defy King Joffrey should raise some interest. Sansa refers to him as “the bastard son of a Florent or some other.” This anonymous bastard serves as a stand-in for Aurane’s fate if he had chosen to defy Joffrey.

George did not just randomly choose a bastard as the first denier. Right before this man’s rejection of Joffrey, it is said that those who beg forgiveness and swear loyalty will get their lands and rights restored. Guess who has no lands and no rights? Bastards. By making a bastard defy Joffrey right after this menton of returning lands and rights, George suggests that this anonymous bastard man saw more worth in dying while defying Joffrey, than retaining his life with no chance to better it. The sole other bastard amongst the list of names is the bastard of Driftmark, Aurane. So, we certainly are left to ponder the possbility that without his half-brother and Stannis for a king, Aurane should see his hopes smashed equally, and thus how only a man like Varys could revive them.

George also includes a huge symbolic role in the scene of the captives with Lord Varner. Swearing fealty to King Joffrey comes with the expression of “bending the knee“. But Lord Varner has a shattered knee. It is unlikely that when Lord Varner had to hobble the Throne Room to swear fealty to King Joffrey, he physically bent that shattered knee. In other words, his fealty and that of those mentioned in the list of names is mere lip service, not followed true in action. Indeed, many of them were originally with Renly’s host and went over to Stannis after Renly’s death (even Ser Bonifer “the Good” Hasty) and were admonished for it by Cortnay Penrose. Lord Celtigar and Aurane Waters are the sole ones in the list who were with Stannis from the start of aCoK.

Several names in the list are tied to Jon Connington’s quick conquest of Cape Wrath:

  • Lord Estermont of the island of Estermont, who becomes a hostage of the Golden Company.
  • Red Ronnet of Griffin’s Roost, who loses his seat to Jon Connington.
  • Ser Dermot of the Rainwood is but a hedge knight, but the intended landing place was an abandoned beach at the heart of the rainwood on the northern shore, and Rain House of House Wylde is taken with ease by Laswell Peake.
  • Jon Fossoway would be a cousin to the second in command in Storm’s End, Lord Meadows who surrendered Storm’s End to Stannis after Cortnay Penrose was killed. And well, apparently Jon Connington and Aegon VI did take Storm’s End by tWoW, Arianne II.

As a young landed knight, Ser Bonifer Hasty was once in love with princess Rhaella Targaryen, and she with him. He wore her token at a tourney that he won and he declared Rhaella his queen of love and beauty. He never stood any chance to be considered a wedding partner for Rhaella however. The day she was wed to Aerys to become the Mad King’s queen, Ser Bonifer put away his lance and became pious. He founded his Holy Hundred and became the castellan of Harrenhal in aFfC. And a familiar name appears when Jaime considers who may have convinced Cersei to make Ser Bonifer the Good castellan of Harrenhal: Lord Orton Merryweather... or should we say Taena?

Jaime could not be certain who had convinced his sister that Ser Bonifer should be named castellan of Harrenhal, but the appointment smelled of Orton Merryweather. Hasty had once served Merryweather’s grandsire, he seemed to recall dimly. And the carrot-haired justiciar was just the sort of simpleminded fool to assume that someone called “the Good” was the very potion the riverlands required to heal the wounds left by Roose Bolton, Vargo Hoat, and Gregor Clegane. (aFfC, Jaime III)

There is a link between Ser Bonifer and the once exiled Hand, Lord Owen Merryweather.

It should also be mentioned that Ser Duncan the Tall noticed a pavillion of purple-white stripes with the occupants making sounds of lovemaking during the wedding tourney of Whitewalls in The Mystery Knight. These are the sigil colors and pattern (white bend on a purple field) of House Hasty. The tourney is referred to as the Second Blackfyre Rebellion and was in actuality a plot to crown Daemon II Blackfyre, third son of Daemon Blackfyre. Though of course those making love in the Hasty pavillion would not have been Bonifer and Rhaella, since neither were born yet at the time, it does tie a Hasty who had a love affair with backing a Blackfyre. Regardless on whether you believe Aegon VI to be a Blackfyre or not, the Golden Company remains associated to Blackfyres.

Now, I do not believe that Bonifer the Good was ever recruited by Varys, or even that he bent the knee to Joffrey with betrayal in mind. Bonifer and the remainder of his Holy Hundred possibly even surrendered voluntarily during the Battle of the Blackwater, after fourteen were killed. But given his background story, he would nevertheless be a sure bet to surrender Harrenhal voluntarily without a fight to Aegon VI, whom he would regard the grandson of his beloved Rhaella.

You see though how most of the names of the list or their castles end up embroiled in the invasion of the Golden Company. I think we should include Lord Celtigar with that, but I will cover him in Part 2 for Salladhor Saan. Mark Mullendore ends up the victim of Cersei’s plot, while House Mullendore may fall victim to Euron Greyjoy’s raids, as its overlords are the Hightowers of Oldtown. By neglecting and downplaying the issue of the Ironborn in the Reach, Cersei sowed the seeds for a potential rebellion against King Tommen in Oldtown and other houses along the Honeywine. It does not end there however, in a symbolic sense Mark Mullendore represents the “broken arm” or lost arm of Dorne.

The last three remaining names, like Lord Varner serve an almost pure symbolical role. Lord Willum and his sons Josua and Elyas? They are a tribute to Tad Williams’ Memory, Sorrow and Thorne fantasy series of the late 80s and early 90s amidst this list of men in particular. Willum is a reference to the author Williams, and the names of Willum’s sons Elyas and Josua refer to two brothers (Elias and Josua) ending up as rivals for the throne, which is made of dragon bones of the dragon their father allegedly killed.

In Catelyn’s chapter where she is an envoy for Robb at Renly’s camp, Elyas and Josua have a dispute over who manages to climb first over the walls of King’s Landing. Hence Elyas and Josua symbolize the feud between Renly and Stannis over a throne that their brother was awarded for killing a dragon, Rhaegar Targaryen. More, the Baratheon dynasty was built on the deaths of the Targaryen dragon dynasty. Even if the Lords had every right to rebel against the Mad King, the murder of Rhaegar’s children and Robert rewarding those behind that slaughter left a stain on his rule.

Spoiler warning! In William’s story the dragonbone chair throne was built on a lie, and the true dynastic heir is an orphaned boy who grows up in the castle as the kitchen’s help. So, when we see Lord Willum and his two sons appear amongst this particular list of names, it points to the other houses ending up kneeling to Aegon VI, the alleged unknown survivor of a dead dynasty.

Much of Willam’s story revolves around a prophecy about bringing together three magical swords. And aside from a dragon skeleton, House Willum’s sigil (in a semi-canon source) depicts three swords. In George’s series we have the legendary Lightbringer in combination with the Prince that was Promised. False or not, Rhaegar did name Aegon the Prince that was Promised and commented that the dragon has three heads. Add the Targaryen swords Blackfyre and Dark Sister and we see how Aegon VI becomes part of the sigil. Even if it is a lie, this reference to William’s series still works out (as anyone who has ever read it would agree with me).

That leaves me to tackle Timon Scrapesword and Lord Pennylover Staedmon. These two men were never mentioned before or after. So, who they are is less important than their names as clues all by themselves.

  • Scraping means removing the surface to reveal what is beneath the outer layer or to smoothen a rough outside. In that sense a scrapesword implies a sword in the making underneath a rough appearance. To scrape also means to collect. In that sense a scrapesword becomes a worplay on the concept of a sellsword, where a man is a collected or scraped sword believing in a cause in contrast of an actual sellsword. This interpretation is supported by the name Timon. The Greek Timao means to honour or esteem. A scrapesword therefore switches sides for honorable reasons, not for money.
  • Staedmon is a wordplay on a steady or steadfast man. Meanwhile a penny is a coin.
    • The first interpretation of Pennylover would be someone who loves coin. Combined with Staedmon this makes for a steadfast coin lover. Interestingly enough, a penny is not made from gold, but copper. It would make for a rather modest sellsword.
    • The concept of gold and sellswords combines into the Golden Company and their original cause, namely to install a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne. In contrast, a copper pennylover would hint at wanting to install a red or true dragon. But Penny is also a personal or house name: the dwarf Penny, a historical whore Penny, the House Penny. With Corliss Penny we have a namesake of Corlys Velaryon combined with a penny. Meanwhile one of the lovers of camp follower Penny Jenny was Quentyn Ball, a Blackfyre supporter.

Eech in their own way, Timon Scrapesword and Staedmon Pennylover represent the idea of someone who appears a selfish rogue or sell-out, like the Golden Company seems a sellsword company for money. But when you scrape away the golden surface, you will find the bitter steel and contracts writ in blood, a cause to be loyal to a dragon, red or black. It is possible that Timon Scrapesword is meant as a clue to Jon Fossoway of the Green Apples, in particular, whereas Steadman Pennylover is a clue for Aurane. But as both imply the same concept, with the first leaning more on honor whereas the second does not mind personal material gain while he is committed to a deeper loyalty of blood.

So, when we combine Cersei’s aFfC reference to first seeing Aurane and mistaking him for Rhaegar in the throne room where he “bent the knee” to Joffrey, we come across

  • coin references, that point to Taena Merryweather and via Longwaters to a Waters descended from Alyn Oakenfist
  • bastards lacking the motivation to “bend the knee” to Joffrey because bastards have no lands and noble rights
  • an allusion to those swearing fealty not actually bending the knee.
  • allusions to gold and pennyloving scrapeswords
  • loyalty to an heir of a prior Targaryen dynasty

This supports the idea that after capture Aurane contemplated refusing to go over to Joffrey, like the other anonymous bastard, but was convinced by Varys to choose life for a higher cause: the return of a “true” dragon. All Varys needed to do then was mention the rich Valyrian history of House Velaryon all on its own, the loyalty of that house to the Targaryens and its true heirs, how even bastards ended up as Lords of the Tides, yadiyada …

The Impulse of Cersei’s Admiration

Taena Merryweather was obvously set to work during Tyrion’s trial to become noticed by the Lannisters as a trustworthy courtier. She lies that she witnessed Tyrion drop something in Joffrey’s wine while the king and Margaery cut the pie. Tyrion even wonders whether she was bought. Later on, during Tywin’s funeral, she approaches Cersei directly, assuring her that she and her husband will happily serve Cersei. And then during the wedding celebrations of Tommen and Margaery, Taena gives up Senelle, and sometime later she drops the info-bomb about Olenna Tyrell’s chest of Gardener gold. So, we have ample evidence on Taena making an effort to gain Cersei’s trust.

In contrast, Aurane never seemed to have made any such effort. He seems to either remain in the background or avoided courtlife as much as possible when Tywin was still alive. He does not appear in an of Sansa’s or Tyrion’s POVs during aSoS, nor is he mentioned by anyone, until aFfC, Cersei III, when she notices him at the wedding celebration of Tommen and Margaery, as he talks with Elinor Tyrell. Next, Jaime mentions having heard a rumor that Cersei intends to make him her Admiral in Jaime II. And we meet him in person during the Small Council in Cersei IV. And unlike with Rosby or Ser Harys Swift, Cersei never betrays in her POV directly what her rationale was. Worse, everything indicates that Cersei’s decision over this was an impulsive one. And this would seem to be a counterargument against Aurane Waters being an agent planted by Varys. It is certainly one of the main reason why Aurane remains under the radar as possible ally of Varys to both characters in-world as well as to readers.

I will show that the indicators back up the impression that Cersei made Aurane Admiral on impulse, and will even propose the likeliest scenario how it came about. But Cersei’s impulse itself was not some fluke: her weakness for Valyrian looks reminiscint of Rhaegar was known to Varys and this was used at the right time in the right way.

RATional VERSUS IMPULSIVE

First, let me show what an actual rationalized choice looks like from Cersei’s POV. On the night of the discovery of Tywin’s death, Cersei decides on impulse to make Jaime Hand. But he rebuffs her in front of everyone else – Qyburn, Kevan, the Kettlebacks. When her mind shifts from Jaime to Kevan, we get her thought process on it.

The next Hand will know his place, she promised herself. It would have to be Ser Kevan. Her uncle was tireless, prudent, unfailingly obedient. She could rely on him, as her father had. The hand does not argue with the head. She had a realm to rule, but she would need new men to help her rule it. Pycelle was a doddering lickspittle, Jaime had lost his courage with his sword hand, and Mace Tyrell and his cronies Redwyne and Rowan could not be trusted. (aFfC, Cersei I)

But Kevan refuses to be Hand with Cersei as regent. Later, Cersei spitballs the notion of making Lord Orton Merryweather Hand, or the pyromancer Lord Hallyne. But eventually she picks Lord Harys Swyft: to be her hostage to prevent Kevan from acting against her (after he let slip to both her and Jaime that he knows of their incest and that Tommen is their child).

Ser Harys had been thrilled by his appointment, too dim to realize that he was more hostage than Hand. His daughter was her uncle’s wife, and Kevan loved his chinless lady, flat-chested and chicken-legged as she was. So long as she had Ser Harys in hand, Kevan Lannister must needs think twice about opposing her. To be sure, a good-father is not the ideal hostage, but better a flimsy shield than none. (aFfC, Cersei IV)

This contrasts with the happenstance manner in which Lord Rosby ends up being Master of Coin. After Twyin’s burial ceremony, Mace Tyrell approaches Cersei and mentions that Garth Tyrell is on his way to Oldtown to sail for King’s Landing, accepting Tywin’s offer to make Garth the new Master of Coin. Cersei had no knowledge of this, nor does she want a Tyrell on her council. She blurts and lies on the spot that she asked Lord Rosby to be the Master of Coin and that he has accepted. Lord Gyles Rosby was the first name that came to mind, likely because she had noticed him coughing during the ceremony (and was irritated by it). After having lied about it to Mace Tyrell, she now felt forced to actually make Lord Rosby Master of Coin. So, she invited Lord Gyles Rosby to a ride in her litter after the funeral to offer him the position and presses him that if anyone asked he should claim that he joined the council a day earlier. When Kevan Lannister confronts her over her choice of Lord Rosby, later on, she defensively comes up with a litany of superficial arguments on the spot to make it appear as if she pondered it. And yet those were never her true reasons and are quite absurd: he has a wealthy estate, so he must know how to count and make money.

Cersei’s defense to Jaime over her rumored choice of Aurane Waters is similarly superficial.

[…] Cersei tossed her hair back, and said, “Waters is well suited to the office. He has spent half his life on ships.”
“Half his life? He cannot be more than twenty.”
“Two-and-twenty, and what of it? Father was not even one-and-twenty when Aerys Targaryen named him Hand. It is past time Tommen had some young men about him in place of all these wrinkled greybeards. Aurane is strong and vigorous.”
Strong and vigorous and handsome, Jaime thought. . . . she’s been fucking Lancel and Osmund Kettleblack and Moon Boy for all I know . . . “Paxter Redwyne would be a better choice. He commands the largest fleet in Westeros. Aurane Waters could command a skiff, but only if you bought him one.”
“You are a child, Jaime. Redwyne is Tyrell’s bannerman, and nephew to that hideous grandmother of his. I want none of Lord Tyrell’s creatures on my council.” (aFfC, Jaime II)

Her defense on Aurane as a choice compares to her defense of picking Gyles Rosby for “lord treasurer”, or Orton Merryweather as Hand – superficial uninformed non-reasons. It has the hallmark of impulse, rather than calculated strategy. All she knows of him are his looks, his age and that he is a sailor. Sure, her argument for not wanting any of Mace Tyrell’s family or bannermen on her council is in a certain light a valid reason for why she would not pick Paxter Redwyne, but it certainly fails to be a reason why it should be Aurane instead. Moreover, we saw Cersei use that very same reason when she impulsively picked Rosby in order to refuse Garth Tyrell. And since her discussion with Jaime on the various other men for the different jobs all involve irrational, impulsive choices, her impulsive choice of Aurane fits the pattern and dialogue.

A TEEN CRUSH

Jaime suspects that Cersei picked Aurane purely for his looks and that she is sexually attracted to him. Jaime is not wrong about that suspicion.

Seen up close, his hair was more silvery than gold, and his eyes were grey-green where Prince Rhaegar’s had been purple. Even so, the resemblance . . . She wondered if Waters would shave his beard for her. Though he was ten years her junior, he wanted her; Cersei could see it in the way he looked at her. (aFfC, Cersei IV)

Cersei has the thoughts of a mesmerized young woman in heat here. And her thoughts when she sees him in Cersei III, during the wedding feast, is little different.

The other cousin, Elinor, was sharing a cup of wine with the handsome young Bastard of Driftmark, Aurane Waters. It was not the first time the queen had made note of Waters, a lean young man with grey-green eyes and long silver-gold hair. The first time she had seen him, for half a heartbeat she had almost thought Rhaegar Targaryen had returned from the ashes. It is his hair, she told herself. He is not half as comely as Rhaegar was. His face is too narrow, and he has that cleft in his chin. The Velaryons came from old Valyrian stock, however, and some had the same silvery hair as the dragonkings of old.  (aFfC, Cersei III)

Thrice she thinks of his handsomeness, his youth, his vigour, and she projects desire onto him (for her). She picked him, because she desires him, and she desires him, because he reminds her of Rhaegar Targaryen, despite the different details such as eye-color, shade of silver, chin cleft and beard.

Strangely enough, her thoughts also betray that this is truly the first time that she is close enough to Aurane to study his features better. This implies that unlike Cersei asking Rosby to accept her offer to be part of her small council, she did not even ask Aurane personally, let alone privately.

These quotes aslo reveal how little Cersei knows Aurane. During the wedding celebration, she acknowledges this is not the first time she noticed him, and then immediately thinks of the first time she saw him, which would have been the time he bent the knee to Joffrey in aCoK, Sansa VIII. While the reader can assume she has seen him at court after aCoK, she does not reminisce on those moments, nor is there direct textual evidence of that. We just know that this is another time that she pays attention to him, from afar. We can, however, conclude from her thoughts in Cersei IV, the Small Council is actually the first time she interacts with him, because it is only now that she has the opportunity to study him “up close”.

In other words, Cersei noticed and watched Aurane like a 14-year old freshman teen smitten with a junior or senior, whom she admires from afar. Basically, Cersei has a crush on Aurane, and it has little to do with Aurane himself. It all has to do with her limerance for Rhaegar in her youth.

The fact that Cersei only getes to study Aurane up close for the first time at the Small Council, after she already appointed him Admiral, implies that the manner in which she appointed him and he accepted was via a third party. She may have invited Rosby into her private carriage to ask him to be her treasurer, but she did not go about it in this manner with Aurane. While this seems strange – and it certainly is not common Cersei behaivor – it certainly fits the scenario behavior of having a crush.

Taena’s RUMOR MILL

There is another paradox with the scene when Cersei notices Aurane at the wedding feast. Cersei saw Aurane share wine with Margaery’s cousin Elinor Tyrell – the pretty, willowy and flowered flirt, despite being betrothed.

Elinor Tyrell, by Drazenka Kimpel

Shortly before Cersei notices Aurane sharing his wine with Elinor Tyrell, Taena Merryweather had informed Cersei about her handmaid Senelle meeting with Margaery’s cousins, inluding Elinor, allegedly to pass information about Cersei onto Margaery. 

“Senelle?” Sudden fury twisted in the queen’s belly. Was there no one she could trust? “You are certain of this?”
“Have her followed. Margaery never meets with her directly. Her cousins are her ravens, they bring her messages. Sometimes Elinor, sometimes Alla, sometimes Megga. All of them are as close to Margaery as sisters. They meet in the sept and pretend to pray. Put your own man in the gallery on the morrow, and he will see Senelle whispering to Megga beneath the altar of the Maiden.” (aFfC, Cersei III)

Kevan’s social interaction with Garlan Tyrell during Tommen’s wedding – where everyone is expected to be amical with one another – triggers Cersei’s paranoia.

Her uncle’s place was empty. The queen finally found him in a corner, talking intently with Mace Tyrell’s son Garlan. What do they have to talk about? The Reach might call Ser Garlan gallant, but she trusted him no more than Margaery or Loras. She had not forgotten the gold coin that Qyburn had discovered beneath the gaoler’s chamber pot. A golden hand from Highgarden. And Margaery is spying on me. (aFfC, Cersei III)

Cersei thinks ill of any of the men interacting with Margaery and her cousins, except Aurane. She is paranoid of her own kin talking with a Tyrell. But she never is over Aurane, despite seeing him talk with the flirty Elinor. In fact, in the small council chapter she considers everyone present as completely on her side.

My councillors. Cersei had uprooted every rose, and all those beholden to her uncle and her brothers. In their places were men whose loyalty would be to her. She had even given them new styles, borrowed from the Free Cities; the queen would have no “masters” at court beside herself. Orton Merryweather was her justiciar, Gyles Rosby her lord treasurer. Aurane Waters, the dashing young Bastard of Driftmark, would be her grand admiral. (aFfC, Cersei IV)

While Cersei’s crush on Aurane might help her want to believe he’ll only be loyal to her, despite seeing him drink a cup of wine with a pretty flirt of the “enemy” at a feast, it is unlikely she would believe this without someone else reassuring her that Aurane is not one of those hanging out with Margaery and her cousins. And this must have occurred, before Jaime overheard the rumor that Cersei picked Aurane to be her Master of Ships – between Cersei III and Jaime II .

“There is talk that you mean to make Aurane Waters the master of ships.”
“Has someone been informing on me?” When he did not answer, Cersei tossed her hair back, and said, “Waters is well suited to the office. He has spent half his life on ships.” (aFfC, Jaime II)

The fact that Cersei asks Jaime who has been gossiping confirms Cersei did mention it to someone. Tyrion told three different men three different versions of who he wanted princess Myrcella to betrothe to discover who of those three would betray his confidence to Cersei. When Cersei protested against Dorne, he knew Pycelle had been the blabbermouth and had him locked up in the black cells. The rumor about Aurane is not a ploy bt Cersei to unmask an informant. Nevertheless, she distrusts Jaime after this even more.

So, who reassured Cersei about Aurane’s loyalty? Who spread the rumor? And who was the go between to ask or inform Aurane of his promotion to become Admiral?

The most logical person would have been Taena Merryweather. Sometime soon after the wedding feast, Cersei asked Margaery whether Taena could be her companion, and Margaery was happy to oblige. By the time that Jaime confronts Cersei about her choices of friends and small council appointments, including Aurane, Cersei and Taena have become thick as thieves. She truly considered making Orton Merryweather her Hand to please Taena and bind her to her.

“Robert gave [their lands] back. Some, at least. Taena would be pleased if Orton could recover the rest.”
“Is this about pleasing some Myrish whore? Here I thought it was about governing the realm.” (aFfC, Jaime II)

When Cersei defends Taena to Jaime, she points out Taena’s usefulness as a double spy. Taena feeds Margaery false and sometimes true information and in return Taena tells Cersei about Margaery and other interesting revelations about the Tyrells.

“Margaery is not half so clever as she thinks. She has no notion what a sweet serpent she has in that Myrish slut. I use Taena to feed the little queen what I want her to know. Some of it is even true.” Cersei’s eyes were bright with mischief. “And Taena tells me everything Maid Margaery is doing.” […] “I know she is a mother, with a young son that she wants to rise high in this world. She will do whatever is required to see that he does. Mothers are all the same. Lady Merryweather may be a serpent, but she is far from stupid. She knows I can do more for her than Margaery, so she makes herself useful to me. You would be surprised at all the interesting things she’s told me.” (aFfC, Jaime II)

If Taena informed Margaery about Cersei picking Aurane, then this explains why it became gossip and Jaime learned of it. And it explains why Cersei does not press who informed on her to Jaime. Cersei knows perfectly well she told Taena and that it was Taena who slipped it to Margaery, which is why she comes to distrust Jaime even more and sends him away to deal with the siege of Riverrun.

Given that Cersei has a crush on Aurane, I propose the following scenario. Cersei inquired with Taena Merryweather as innocent as she could whether Aurane was a regular visitor to Margaery or her cousins. Taena assured her that Aurane was not a courtier to either Margaery or Elinor. When Taena asked “Why?” (likely in a teasing confidential tone), Cersei improvized an alternative motive for her inquisitiveness: she was considering to make him master of ships on her council. Taena made sure it became a rumor. When Jaime asked Cersei about it, not only did it reveal to her the rumor mill, but she would conclude that the gossip would have reached Aurane’s ears too, undoubtedly creating a binding expectation. Jaime’s disapproval  strengthened Cersei’s pride and resolve to make Aurane Waters her admiral indeed.

This is how we end up with a situation that reeks of impsulsiveness, based on a crush, and installing that said crush at her small council without having spoken or met the man in question up close before.

Luck or set-up?

So, was it a stroke of luck for Varys that Aurane became Admiral, almost entirely dependent on Cersei’s impulsiveness and desires. Or was Cersei set up to believe it was all her own idea and desires?

Well, what would have prompted Cersei to inquire after Aurane with Taena Merryweather in the first place? He shared wine with flirty Elinor at the feast, after Taena already had thrown suspicion on Margaery and her hens for spying on Cersei. And he has Targaryen feaetures, reminding Cersei of Rhaegar. And if indeed Taena started the rumor mill about Cersei considering to make Aurane her admiral, then she manipulated Cersei into the decision, while making Cersei believe it was all her own happenstance doing and make Aurane the least suspect.

Cersei may be impulsive, but to a man like Varys she is also predictable and Taena is skilled and inventive enough to seize or create any opportunity to make it happen. Aurane’s Valyrian features that he has in common with Rhaegar was always part of the lure. If there was ever anyone that Cersei was smitten with, aside from Jaime, it was Rhaegar.

Rhaegar Targaryen by Karla Ortiz

She was ten when she finally saw her prince in the flesh, at the tourney her lord father had thrown to welcome King Aerys to the west. […] Seventeen and new to knighthood, Rhaegar Targaryen had worn black plate over golden ringmail when he cantered onto the lists. Long streamers of red and gold and orange silk had floated behind his helm, like flames. […] By night the prince played his silver harp and made her weep. When she had been presented to him, Cersei had almost drowned in the depths of his sad purple eyes. He has been wounded, she recalled thinking, but I will mend his hurt when we are wed. Next to Rhaegar, even her beautiful Jaime had seemed no more than a callow boy. (aFfC, Cersei V)

Even in Cersei’s memory, beautiful Jaime was but a callow boy. She drowned in Rhaegar’s eyes and his harp play could make her weep. She wept at the end of the tourney at Lannisport when there was no final feast to celebrate her fantasy betrothal to Rhaegar. At the time, Cersei was ten and Varys was still in Essos. But Tywin did not give up on hoping for a royal match. He brought Cersei (born in 266 AC) to court when she was twelve, refusing any other marriage offer. So, Cersei began to live in the Red Keep in 278 AC, the same year that Aerys II hired Varys, a year before Rhaegar’s  betrothal to Elia Martell. Varys was not just privy to Tywin’s intentions. He witnessed young Cersei being smitten with Rhaegar, while both Cersei and Rhaegar lived at the Red Keep.

Many a night she had watched Prince Rhaegar in the hall, playing his silver-stringed harp with those long, elegant fingers of his. Had any man ever been so beautiful? He was more than a man, though. His blood was the blood of old Valyria, the blood of dragons and gods. (aFfC, Cersei V)

Cersei never forgave Robert for killing handsome Rhaegar, making clear how much Cersei desired Rhaegar. Varys was present throughout to take note of it. So, even though Cersei’s thinking and decision making was impulsive and utterly based on Aurane’s looks from afar, none should be taken as coincidental.

Conclusion (tl;tr)

I propose that Varys recruited Aurane for team Aegon, shortly after Aurane’s capture at the Battle of the Blackwater, because he knew which ancestral pride and loyalty buttons to push by reminding him of Alyn Oakenfist, a loyal bastard of Driftmark, while Varys told Aurane a tale of a Targaryen princess with three dragons in Qarth believed to be on her way to Pentos. After that it was a waiting game. With Tywin dead and Kevan refusing to be Hand with Cersei as regent, it was the opportune time to have Cersei notice handsome, dashing Aurane, again. With Taena’s help, Cersei was reassured Aurane was not connected to the Tyrell court, her uncle or her brother, and Cersei appointed Aurane as admiral. By then, Varys trusted Aurane enough to enlighten him about the Golden Company’s expected coming. Plans were afoot to send both Tyrion and Aegon to Volantis, where Illyrio and everyone else expected Dany to show up with her dragons. And so, the Golden Company had begun its march to Volantis. It was time for Aurane to prepare Westeros for their homecoming.

Strange Sails

(Top illustration – Storm’s End by ryandero)

“If Storm’s End is so impregnable, how do you mean to take it?” asked Malo.
“By guile.” (aDwD, The Griffin Reborn)

Capturing Storm’s End

The riddles and potential mysteries of the identities of the Ragtag of Exiles tends to steal the show when it comes to reader discussions about any of their characters (including by yours truly). But there is more to the Ragtag of Exiles than secret identities. While Mace left the siege on Storm’s End to support his daughter Margaery in King’s Landing, Aegon and Jon Connington arrive at Cape Wrath and begin to capture castle after castle. At the end of Jon Connington’s second chapter in aDwD, the Griffin Reborn, Jon Connington reveals that he intends to take Storm’s End with guile.

“We did not cross half the world to wait. Our best chance is to strike hard and fast, before King’s Landing knows who we are. I mean to take Storm’s End. A nigh-impregnable stronghold, and Stannis Baratheon’s last foothold in the south. Once taken, it will give us a secure fastness to which we may retreat at need, and winning it will prove our strength.” (aDwD, The Griffin Reborn)

Both Jon Connington, Mace Tyrell and Arianne admit that one cannot just conquer Storm’s End.

“Here.” Pycelle pointed with a spotted hand. Where the sleeve of his robe rode up, a flap of pale flesh could be seen dangling beneath his forearm. “Here and here. All along the coast, and on the islands. Tarth, the Stepstones, even Estermont. And now we have reports that Connington is moving on Storm’s End.”
“If it is Jon Connington,” said Randyll Tarly.
“Storm’s End.” Lord Mace Tyrell grunted the words. “He cannot take Storm’s End. Not if he were Aegon the Conqueror. And if he does, what of it? Stannis holds it now. Let the castle pass from one pretender to another, why should that trouble us? I shall recapture it after my daughter’s innocence is proved.” (aDwD, Epilogue)

Aegon and Jon Connington “capturing” Storm’s End would be a first ever.

  • Gyles III Gardener besieged the castle for two years and failed.
  • The Andals tried to besiege and attack it seven times during their invasion, but had to give up.
  • Orys Baratheon was only able to take it, because Argilac the Arrogant chose open battle against Aegon’s army commander in the Stormlands, instead of using his foolproof defenses. After Argilac’s defeat, the people inside of Storm’s End delivered Argilac’s daughter to Orys along with the castle.
  • Stannis did manage to force a surrender of Storm’s End in aCoK, but only because he had the castellan Cortnay Penrose assassinated and Cortnay’s second in command was correctly assessed not to be a hardline loyalist to Renly.

Arianne’s descriptions of Storm’s End’s batttlements clarifies why it is impervious to an armed attack.

Storm’s End. This griffin is a bold one, it would seem. Or else a fool. The seat of House Baratheon for three centuries, of the ancient Storm Kings for thousands of years before that, Storm’s End was said by some to be impregnable. Arianne had heard men argue about which was the strongest castle in the realm. Some said Casterly Rock, some the Eyrie of the Arryns, some Winterfell in the frozen north, but Storm’s End was always mentioned too. Legend said it was raised by Brandon the Builder to withstand the fury of a vengeful god. Its curtain walls were the highest and strongest in all the Seven Kingdoms, forty to eighty feet in thickness. Its mighty windowless drum tower stood less than half as tall as the Hightower of Oldtown, but rose straight up in place of being stepped, with walls thrice as thick as those to be found in Oldtown. No siege tower was tall enough to reach Storm’s End battlements; neither mangonel nor trebuchet could hope to breech its massive walls. Does Connington think to mount a siege? She wondered. How many men can he have? Long before the castle fell, the Lannisters would dispatch an army to break any such siege. That way is hopeless too. (tWoW, Arianne II)

Discussing this particular plan of Jon Connington comes with a huge SPOILER ALERT. Via Arianne’s sample chapters for tWoW, George let the cat out of the bag on whether Jon Connington succeeded or not. So, if you do not wish to know this yet, then this essay is not for you, and you must stop reading now!


At the end of Arianne’s second chapter for tWoW, halfmaester Haldon reveals that Aegon Targaryen and Jon Connington have captured Storm’s End.

“We have rooms prepared for you and yours, princess,” this Halden said, when the introductions finally ran their course. “I trust that they will suit. I know you seek Lord Connington, and he desires words with you as well, most urgently. If it please you, on the morrow there will be a ship to take you to him.”
“Where?” demanded Arianne.
“Has no one told you?” Halden Halfmaester favored her with a smile thin and hard as a dagger cut. “Storm’s End is ours. The Hand awaits you there.” (tWoW, Arianne II)

The sample chapters are of course not necessarily the finalized plot. It is possible George may rewrite the plot outcome, or maybe he intends to have us witness the capture of Storm’s End via Connington’s POV. But for now the conclusion is that Jon Connington and Aegon managed to capture Storm’s End, while Mace Tyrell was in King’s Landing for his daughter’s trial. The question is how? We are certain it could only have been done with deception, but which one?

There have been some proposals by readers in the past, which this essay will summarize and evaluate. In doing so, we end up reexamining certain information and potential opportunities as well as anomalies, which help us come to a prediction on alliances that have been set up and in some cases already in action since the Battle of the Blackwater.

Index

Ramsay’s Trick

In aCoK, Ramsay tricks both Theon and Rodrik Cassel into regarding him as their ally coming to the rescue. Ser Rodrik believed Ramsay came to Winterfell with the Dreadfort men to help him retake Winterfell. But Ramsay routed and killed the host that Cassel assembled. Theon knew Ramsay as Reek, a turncloak who promised to help him if he let him go. When he saw Reek return with the Dreadfort men and attack Cassel’s host outside the walls of Winterfell, Theon opened the gates to him, only to be taken captive.

Like Ramsay, Jon Connington has to deceive two parties:

  1. the host led by Lord Rowan who continue the siege of Storm’s End outside the walls of Storm’s End
  2. and the men inside Storm’s End that are loyal to Stannis Baratheon.

Hence, some have proposed that Jon Connington will trick Mathis Rowan into believing he is an ally, allowing the Golden Company to get close enough to take out Mace Tyrell’s token force. This in turn would convince the men inside Storm’s End that Jon Connington came to their aid and rescue, and they open the gates for Jon Connington and the Golden Company.

There are several issues with this proposal or problems that need to be resolved:

  • The mentioned “token force” of Lord Rowan Mathis is underestimated in numbers.
  • Ramsay’s trick relied on both armed men outside and inside Winterfell to assume either he or his forces were allies.

Return to index

What is a token force?

Lord Rowan’s “token army” must be understood in relation to the number of forces that Mace Tyrell originally sieged with, before he returned to King’s Landing.

At the Blackwater, the Tyrells had an army of 70000. That host was then split into three.

  • Tarly took a good deal to root out the wolves in Duskendale, bring back order in Maidenpool and secure the kingsroad in the northern Crownlands and eastern Riverlands. That army was large enough to motivate the High Sparrow and the Faith Militant into handing Maergaery back into Randyll’s care (Lord Tarly was the first to arrive back at King’s Landing).
  • After the wedding of Margaery and Tommen, Garlan Tyrell and Olenna Redwyne took half of the remaining army – excluding Randyll Tarly’s – back to the Reach.
  • Mace took the rest with him to besiege Storm’s End. This would be a third of the original 70000 host and roughly means between 20 000 to 30 000.

Given that Mace Tyrell raced back to King’s Landing once he learned of his daughter’s arrest, we can surmise that Mace took cavalry and heavy lance with him to King’s Landing, while he have left behind foot and bowmen.

So, how many of those twenty to thirty thousand would be infantry? After Renly’s assassination and Tarly’s slaughter of Florent liegemen at Bitterbridge (as a “precaution” that they would not follow their Lord into turning their cloak for Stannis), it was estimated that there were at least 58000 foot in total at Bitterbridge, without the 10000 soldiers that Tyrell held back at Highgarden. If we divide that by three, give or take that would mean about 16000 foot at Storm’s End. It would need to be large enough for Mace to believe that Stannis’ 200 inside Storm’s End can remain cut off from the rest of the mainland and food supply, even after Paxter Redwyne left the area and does not police the seaside of Shipbreaker’s Bay anymore and he is in King’s Landing with his horse.

My intent is not to make an exact estimate. George can play around with the numbers, and likely will do so, but basically my point here is that Rowan’s “token” army of foot and bowmen at Storm’s End could be anywhere between 5000 to 10000 men. My point here is that what is a “token” force to Mace Tyrell could be as large as Robb Stark’s whole army he took south of Moat Cailin with him, or as large as the complete Golden Company. So, that would make Jon Connington’s company at best even numbered to Rowan’s. Meanwhile the Battle of Winterfell were 600 Dreadfort men against Rodrik’s 2000.

The numbers of Lord Rowan’s “token” force as well as the confirmed half of the Golden Company that landed at Cape Wrath far better resembles the Battle of Oxcross, where Ser Stafford Lannister trained men for the Lannister host, including about 4000 veterans of Forley Prester.

But even if Jon Connington could, attacking Rowan’s host would risk great number of casualties on Jon Connington’s side, which he cannot afford to lose. His aim is to grow in size, not shrink.

Return to index

Who knows who?
Outside Storm’s End

Ser Rodrik Cassel would have distrusted Dreadfort men if he knew Ramsay to be their commander, but Cassel believed Ramsay killed and Reek to be inside Winterfell (either a prisoner, dead or turncloak to Theon). In Rodrik Cassel’s eyes, the men wearing the flayed man of House Bolton were back to being vassals of Winterfell with their lord warring south for Robb, especially since Roose Bolton had helped Robb succeed in taking Riverrun with his “self-sacrificing” Battle of the Green Fork. So, Rodrik and his several thousand men naturally believed the flayed men to be allies. This was the reason why the Dreadfort 600 were allowed to approach and mingle in the first place.

Storm’s End sits on the highest point of the cliff called Darren’s Point. This cliff has been historically deforrested since the Age of Heroes, if not the Dawn Age, or at least since the founding of Storm’s End. There is no physical manner for Jon Connington to approach the castle unseen overland, the way Robb led his 6000 passed the Golden Tooth via a goat trail to then descend on Stafford without warning. Hence, this is why readers argue that Jon Connington will boldly approach and Lord Rowan mistakes him to be an ally.

But in aFfC Aurane Waters and later on Cersei spread the false rumor that the Golden Company broke its contract with Myr in support of Stannis’ claim. So, Mathis Rowan would not consider an approaching Golden Company an ally of his. Instead, readers point to Arianne’s observation about the Golden Company’s banners being easily mistaken for House Baratheon’s.

“Banners?” asked Arianne.
“Gold. On the gatehouse and the keep.”
“What device did they bear?”
“None that I could see, but there was no wind. The banners hung limp from their staffs.” That was vexing. The Golden Company’s banners were cloth-of-gold, devoid of arms and ornament… but the banners of House Baratheon were also gold, though theirs displayed the crowned stag of Storm’s End. Limp golden banners could be either. (tWoW, Arianne II)

If the golden cloth banners of the Golden Company could be mistaken for the golden banners of House Baratheon, perhaps Jon Connington could use this to trick Lord Rowan? Except, the sole Baratheon who could be an ally of the Tyrells and by extension Rowan Mathis would be King Tommen Baratheon, whose banners are half Lannister red with a lion. Meanwhile, Stannis’ banner has a red flaming heart.

House Baratheon (left), House Baratheon of King’s landing (Center), House Baratheon of Dragonstone (Right)

So, while a limp golden banner of the Golden Company may resemble a limp golden banner of House Baratheon of Storm’s End, the issue is that House Baratheon of Storm’s End is dead and that neither side at Storm’s End, outside or inside its walls follwould recognize that banner as that of an ally.

Connington cannot fake House Rowan or Tyrell approaching either. Tyrell banners include gold, but on a green base. And House Rowan’s golden tree is on a silver background.

House Rowan of Goldengrove (Left) and House Tyrell (Right)

The banners of the castles the Golden Company took on Cape Wrath or House Estermont do not work as false flag either. Why would Lord Rowan of the Reach trust any of the Stormland houses anyway? Many have divided loyalties between Stannis and Cersei’s sons since the Blackwater, and went over to Stannis after Renly’s death.

Return to index

Inside Storm’s End

Let us assume that by some miracle somehow Jon Connington manages to attack Rowan’s host and win that battle with a limp golden banner ruse. Would that be enough for Storm’s End castellan to open his gates, the way Theon lowered the drawbridge for Ramsay? Unlike Theon, Ser Gilbert Farring never sent Jon Connington out to fetch reinforcements. Stannis’ castellan of Storm’s End, who commands the skeleton crew of 200, Ser Gilbert Farring does not know any of the sellswords, or Aegon or Jon Connington. Sure, Jon Connington may try to claim that Stannis hired the Golden Company to come to his man’s rescue. But why would Ser Gilbert Farring believe this claim? Because Stannis advized Ser Justin Massay to hire the Golden Company after he signed a contract with the Iron Bank?

“The Iron Bank has opened its coffers to me. You will collect their coin and hire ships and sellswords. A company of good repute, if you can find one. The Golden Company would be my first choice, if they are not already under contract. Seek for them in the Disputed Lands, if need be. But first hire as many swords as you can find in Braavos, and send them to me by way of Eastwatch. Archers as well, we need more bows.” (tWoW, Theon I)

Timeline wise, Jon Connington captured Storm’s End before Tycho Nestoris arrived at the crofter’s village at the ice lakes. Tycho mentions reports in Braavos of other sailors having seen strange sails at the Stepstones.

“Let us hope so. The narrow sea is perilous this time of year, and of late there have been troubling reports of strange ships seen amongst the Stepstones.”
“Salladhor Saan?”
“The Lysene pirate? Some say he has returned to his old haunts, this is so. And Lord Redwyne’s war fleet creeps through the Broken Arm as well. On its way home, no doubt. But these men and their ships are well-known to us. No, these other sails … from farther east, perhaps … one hears queer talk of dragons.” (aDwD, Jon IX)

But let us accept that events at the ice lakes near Winterell may coincide with Jon Connington marching for Storm’s End. Now what tend hostile forces ouside a castle’s wall to do in Westeros? Shoot down ravens. So, neither Stannis or close trusted knight of Stannis could have successfully sent a message by raven from the North to alert the castellan in Storm’s End about the possibility of the Golden Company being hired by Stannis.

That only leaves Cersei’s small council claims in aFfC about the Golden Company breaking its contract with Myr for Stannis Baratheon as an independent source to potentially corroborate Jon Connington shouting at Storm’s End gate that Stannis hired them to relieve them from the siege. Keep in mind that Cersei’s independent claim about this would have been relayed to Ser Gilbert Farring by either Mace Tyrell or Mathis Rowan during some parlay that would have had the taunting quality level  akin to “Your mother …”

So, how likely is that that Ser Gilbert Farring could be conned into believing this? House Farring is a knightly noble house of the Crownlands that has been loyal to Stannis Baratheon at least since burning of the Seven on Dragonstone (aCoK, Davos I). Just as Davos’ son squired for Stannis during the burning of the Seven, so did Gilbert’s son Bryen.

Stannis Baratheon strode forward like a soldier marching into battle. His squires stepped up to attend him. Davos watched as his son Devan pulled a long padded glove over the king’s right hand. The boy wore a cream-colored doublet with a fiery heart sewn on the breast. Bryen Farring was similarly garbed as he tied a stiff leather cape around His Grace’s neck. […] The red woman remained a moment to watch as Devan knelt with Byren Farring and rolled up the burnt and blackened sword in the king’s leather cloak. (aCoK, Davos I)

In other words, Ser Gilbert Farring and his house are as loyal to Stannis as Davos Seaworth is. Not only is Ser Gilbert’s son a squire of Stannis who joined him on his cold march to Winterfell. His cousin is Ser Godry Giantslayer Farring, who is part of Stannis’ close knit war counsil, a King’s Men rather than a Queen’s Men. And though brutish in some ways, at least Ser Godry is not goaded into mistakes much. Gilbert’s son Bryen died at the crofter’s village from starvation and cold, while soldiers of House Peasebury committed cannibalism and were conndemned to burn for it. One of them attempts to goad Godry into killing him by insulting his dead nephew.

The oldest of the four had been their serjeant. He alone remained defiant, spitting venom at the queen’s men as they prodded him along with their spears. “Fuck you all, and fuck your red god too,” he said. “You hear me, Farring? Giantslayer? I laughed when your fucking cousin died, Godry. We should have eaten him too, he smelled so good when they roasted him. I bet the boy was nice and tender. Juicy.” A blow from a spear butt drove the man to his knees but did not silence him. When he rose he spat out a mouthful of blood and broken teeth and went right on. “The cock’s the choicest part, all crisped up on the spit. A fat little sausage.” Even as they wrapped the chains around him, he raved on. “Corliss Penny, come over here. What sort of name is Penny? Is that how much your mother charged? And you, Suggs, you bleeding bastard, you—” Ser Clayton never said a word. One quick slash opened the serjeant’s throat, sending a wash of blood down his chest. (aDwD, The Sacrifice)

It is Clayton Suggs who ends up killing the serjeant, while the Giantslayer can ignore the insults.

All in all, these men’s loyalty, fealty and service to Stannis cannot be doubted, nor are they inexperienced or naive like Theon Greyjoy. Without a bonafide confirmation by someone whom Ser Gilbert knows to have sacrificed and warred alongside Stannis the past two years, I do believe that Gilbert would be fooled into believing Jon Connington and the Golden Company to be on Stannis’ side, even after this hypothetical succesful massacring of Rowan’s host. I do not absolutely reject this idea that those inside Storm’s End may open the gates to Jon Connington. My point here is that we require a missing key figure that Ser Gilbert would know by sight as an ally of Stannis.

Of interesting note here though is that the second in command of Storm’s End is the same one under the previous castellan Cortnay Penrose – Lord Elwood Meadows.

“Ser Cortnay’s lieutenant is cousin to the Fossoways. Lord Meadows, a green boy of twenty. Should some ill chance strike down Penrose, command of Storm’s End would pass to this stripling, and his cousins believe he would accept my terms and yield up the castle.” (aCoK, Davos II)

Indeed, Lord Meadows yielded Storm’s End to Stannis swiftly, after Penrose’s death. He is like to do this again, if Ser Gilbert Farring was to come to an unfortunate calamity.

Return to index

House Estermont, The turtle and the leopard

Some readers consider the hostages that Jon Connington acquired as potential key characters for the deception. When Marq Mandrake happened to capture the island and seat of Estermont, Jon Connington decides that the nobles at House Estermont should be taken to the mainland as hostages.

“There should be ships on Estermont. It is an island. Haldon, send word to Mandrake to leave a garrison behind and bring the rest of his men over to Cape Wrath, along with any noble captives.”
“As you command, my lord. House Estermont has blood ties to both kings, as it happens. Good hostages.” (aDwD, The Griffin Reborn)

Could House Estermont impact the 200 men inside Storm’s End and Rowan’s “token” host? Officially, House Estermont has blood ties to both Stannis and Tommen Baratheon – lady Cassana Estermont was Robert’s and Stannis’ mother who drowned along with her husband Steffon at Shipbreaker’s Bay. This makes her the paternal grandmother of Tommen Baratheon in the minds of most. Lord Eldon Estermont is either a brother or uncle to the late Cassana (see Estermont family tree), and thus uncle or great-uncle of Stannis. He bent the knee to Joffrey after being captured at the Blackwater, as did his heir Ser Aemon and grandson Ser Alyn. Both were still in King’s Landing supporting Tommen I in aFfC. So, Lord Mathis Rowan might assume Lord Estermont an ally and believe whatever he claims, not believing the lord would risk the lives of his heir and grandson in King’s Landing.

Interesting enough, Eldon’s brother (or other son), Ser Lomas, is one of the two hundred inside Storm’s End. While Lord Eldon was captured at the Blackwater by the Lannisters and Tyrells, his brother Lomas escaped the battle with Stannis. It is therefore possible, Lomas at least may be persuaded to believe that Eldon and Jon Connington are on Stannis’ side, after tricking Lord Rowan and his token force. It should be noted though, that Lomas is not the castellan or even second-in-command inside Storm’s End.

At the very least, I can see why Jon Connington might end up believing Lord Estermont could be of use to try and trick Lord Rowan as well as Ser Lomas, once Jon Connington has sufficient information on House Estermont’s division. The fact that Arianne has not encounterd any of the Estermont hostages during her tour of the captured seats at Cape Wrath at the very least points to them having been taken to Storm’s End.

If House Estermont may not be as big as a strategical advantage for Aegon and Jon as some readers hope or propose them to be, the taking of Greenstone’s House has symbolic significance: their sigil is that of a green sea turtle on a green field.

Sigil of House Estermont – green sea turtle on green field

The turtle has been featured in Aegon’s arc before: when Tyrion journeys the river Rhoyne aboard the Shy Maid, they witness a giant horned turtle The Old Man of the River surface and bellow at them. To the Rhoynar, this species of turtle were gods or the consort of the river goddess. While the migrated Martells converted from Rhoynish beliefs to that of the Faith, the Dornish orphans who are descendents of the Rhoynar smallfolk did not. So, when this horned turle as big as a boat greets them, Yandry and Ysilla regards it as the god blessing them.

Some [turtles] were so large they could have borne a man upon their backs. Yandry swore the Rhoynar princes used to ride them across the river. He and his wife were Greenblood born, a pair of Dornish orphans come home to Mother Rhoyne. […] I shall, the dwarf was thinking, when he spied a rippling ahead not six yards from the boat. He was about to point it out to Lemore when it came to the surface with a wash of water that rocked the Shy Maid sideways. It was another turtle, a horned turtle of enormous size, its dark green shell mottled with brown and overgrown with water moss and crusty black river molluscs. It raised its head and bellowed, a deep-throated thrumming roar louder than any warhorn that Tyrion had ever heard. “We are blessed,” Ysilla was crying loudly, as tears streamed down her face. “We are blessed, we are blessed.”
Duck was hooting, and Young Griff too. Haldon came out on deck to learn the cause of the commotion … but too late. The giant turtle had vanished below the water once again. “What was the cause of all that noise?” the Halfmaester asked.
“A turtle,” said Tyrion. “A turtle bigger than this boat.”
“It was him,” cried Yandry. “The Old Man of the River.” And why not? Tyrion grinned. Gods and wonders always appear, to attend the birth of kings. (aDwD, Tyrion IV)

Old Man of the River by Puppy Show

So, in the above scene, a giant turtle – who is regarded like a god by those of the Greenblood – “blessed” the mission of getting Aegon on the Iron Throne. In that sense, the unplanned taking of Greenstone’s House Estermont with a green turtle for a sigil is a reminder of this lucky blessing. Alternatively or additionally, the blessing of this Rhoynish god foreshadows House Martell supporting and allying themselves with Aegon.

The turtle has a special meaning to George RR Martin’s writing beyond that of aSoIaF. One of George’s first passions were comic book heroes. First he read them, then he published one of his first stories involving a superhero Doctor Weird, in a fanzine (Only Kids are Afraid in the Dark). And then in 1987 the first installment of the Wild Cards superhero stories were published. These stories are written by a collection of 40 authors, in the aftermath of a two year RPG campaign. George has been a primary editor since its inception. One of the superheroes or Aces is George’s creation: the Great and Powerful Turtle. In an alternate post-WWII world, an alien virus that alters DNA was introduced to earth: 90 % of those who contract it die, 9 % end up as Jokers with a disability and 1 % become the superheroic Aces. The Turtle is an Ace, but because he hides it is speculated that he may be a Joker.  Thomas Tudbury hides in plain sight in his everyday life quite easily because he looks like an average guy – plain, pudgy, overweight, glasses and inferiority complex. When he tries to catch the bad guys, he does so by using an old VW Beatle as armor, which he takes into the sky using telekinesis, which is so strong that he once lifted the 45 000 ton battleship New Jersey. The VW Beetle carcass that the Turtle flies acts like his armor. It helps Thomas to concentrate without interuption and use his telekinesis powers optimally. His friend and Thomas also strengthen the Beetle shell with stripped armor plate from battleships.

The first time, Thomas went on a rescue mission with the VW Beetle he got from his friend’s scrapyard, he referenced himself as the Great and Powerful Turtle.

A cop climbed up on top of his police car, holding a bullhorn, and began to hail him. Tom turned off the radio to hear better over the roar of the flames. He was telling Tom to land and identify himself, asking who he was, what he was. That was easy. Tom turned on the microphone. “I’m the turtle,” he said. The VW had no tires; in the wheel wells, Joey had rigged the most humongous speakers they could find, powered by the largest amp on the market. For the first time, the voice of the Turtle was heard in the land, a booming “I’M THE TURTLE,” echoing down the streets and alleys, a rolling thunder crackling with distortion. Except what he said didn’t sound quite right. Tom cranked the volume up even higher, injected a little more bass into his voice. “I AM THE GREAT AND POWERFUL TURTLE,” he announced to them all. (Wild Cards I – Shell Games, George RR Martin)

It is almost as if George lifted this Turtle scene from Shell Games and reworked it into the great horned turtle scene with the Shy Maid for aSoIaF. Note that the noun horn can mean both appendixes on the head as well as a sound magnifier. So, when the crew and people on the Shy Maid hoot at seeing the humongous turtle, his bellowing reply may as well have meant “HI, I AM THE GREAT AND POWERFUL TURTLE”. And with Yandry swearing that Rhoynar princes used to ride these gargantuan turtles, George is basically reshaping Aegon (a Rhoynar prince through his mother Elia Martell) into a hero, or Ace.

However, House Turtle wed a spotted leopard: Arianne’s friend Sylva Santagar was wed by her father to the old Lord Estermont, after Sylva’s involvement in the abduction of Myrcella which ended in Myrcella’s maiming. Sylva is nicknamed Spotted Sylva, because of her freckles in combination with House Santagar’s sigil – a spotted leopard with a golden axe over a bend sinister of blue and white. And of course this is defiitely an allusion to a leopard never changing his spots. When we combine this with the turtle symbolism, it seems to me that George is signaling that  no matter how much you raise someone to be a saintly savior Turtle and leader for the realm, some aspects are nature. Inherently the Iron Throne’s power corrupts, if not the one sitting on it or aspiring to sit on it, at the very least those the monarch surrounds themselves with, councilors, sponsors or wives. And it always starts with the ends justifying the means.

Return to index

The Smuggler route

A few have reasoned and proposed that somehow Jon Connington managed to get people inside Storm’s End without confronting Rowan’s host, via the very same route that Davos took to smuggle in onions and Mel when she birthed her shadow assassin. Paxter Redwyne’s fleet is long gone and not patrolling Shipbreaker’s Bay anymore. So, theoretically Storm’s End is open to being resupplied by a smuggler’s galley.

In these proposals the food carrying galley acts as a Trojan horse for the Golden Company. The right captain and ship might persuade Ser Gilbert Farring by sight that they came to the rescue on Stannis’s orders to save the brave and loyal men at Storm’s End from starving. Then once Ser Gilbert either goes onto the ship or allows the crew access into the castle, he ends up captured or killed, and his lieutenant the-ever-yielding Lord Meadows will hand over the castle to the invaders.

I tdo believe that the trojan-food-relief-by-ship is indeed the main key that leads to the “capture” of Storm’s End itself. It bypasses Rowan’s host, via a sea trail (instead of a goat trail), and would allow Aegon and Jon Connington to attack Rowan’s host from two sides:

  • an army in plain sight going up the cliff
  • and a sortie from Storm’s End in Lord Rowan’s rear.

Though even that may not be necessary. Lord Rowan of Goldengrove possibly bends the knee to Aegon the moment he realizes what predicament he is in.

The huge caveat here is that the Golden Company has no ships or captains of their own, nor are they sailors. They have to rely on a Westeros-allied crew. Usually, an Estermont cog is proposed for this mission. But there are several issues with this. Firstly, an Estermont cog is not likely to fit inside the cavern. Secondly, there is vast difference between the Golden Company making a potentially hostile crew sail them from Estermont to the landing place at Cape Wrath at sword point, and trusting this crew to sail them into Storm’s End while hiding in the hull. In the second scenario, the lives of the men of the Golden Company are entirely in the hands of potential enemies, as Tyrion thinks to himself once he learns that Jon Connington is sailing for Westeros without Dany.

It had to be a stratagem, designed to lull Volantene suspicions. Get the men aboard with this false pretext and seize the ships when the fleet is out to sea. Is that Griff’s plan? It might work. The Golden Company was ten thousand strong, seasoned and disciplined. None of them seamen, though. Griff will need to keep a sword at every throat, and should they come on Slaver’s Bay and need to fight … (aDwD, Tyrion VII)

Return to index

A likely profile

We cannot assume that just every captain knows the cavernous access into Storm’s End, let alone how to navigate it with a ship. So, this proposal can only work if the Golden Company forges an alliance with a fleet or captain that

  • the Golden Company can or will trust for 99 % with their lives,
  • the 200 men holding Storm’s End for Stannis would trust,
  • knows how to navigate the smuggler’s cavern.
Salladhor Saan, by Diego Gisbert Llorens

One of the likeliest candidates to fit that profile would be Salladhor Saan. This smuggler and former good friend of Davos would know how to safely navigate a ship into Storm’s End. Imagine Ser Gilbert Farring peeping down the murder hole to check the identity of the men who were so bold to sail into the smuggler’s cavern. He sees Salladhor on the ship and the Lyseni pirate then loudly claims that Davos and Stannis sent him to gift them food and keep them from starving, then Ser Gilbert has no knowledge to distrust Salladhor. He does not know that Salladhor abandoned Stannis, does not know the pirate dropped Davos into dangerous waters to make it to the shore of the Sisters by himself, instead of White Harbor. In fact, Davos himself lied to Lord Godric Borrell about Salla’s loyalties.

When Davos did not answer, [Lord Borrell] rapped his spoon against the table. “The Lyseni. Torrent spied their sails from Littlesister, and before him the Flints from Widow’s Watch. Orange sails, and green, and pink. Salladhor Saan. Where is he?”
“At sea.” Salla would be sailing around the Fingers and down the narrow sea. He was returning to the Stepstones with what few ships remained him. Perhaps he would acquire a few more along the way, if he came upon some likely merchantmen. A little piracy to help the leagues go by. “His Grace has sent him south, to trouble the Lannisters and their friends.” The lie was one he had rehearsed as he rowed toward Sisterton through the rain. Soon or late the world would learn that Salladhor Saan had abandoned Stannis Baratheon, leaving him without a fleet, but they would not hear it from the lips of Davos Seaworth. (aDwD, Davos I)

An alliance with a Westerosi or Salla’s remaining fleet can solve a lot of issues for the Golden Company overall. At the time of Jon Connington’s taking of Griffin Roost, the landing seemed to have become a logistical nightmare. The fleet from Volantis dropped the Golden Company and their elephants off wherever they could in the Narrow Sea:

The Halfmaester had good tidings. “Word’s reached the camp from Marq Mandrake. The Volantenes put him ashore on what turned out to be Estermont, with close to five hundred men. He’s taken Greenstone.”
Estermont was an island off Cape Wrath, never one of their objectives. “The damned Volantenes are so eager to be rid of us they are dumping us ashore on any bit of land they see,” said Franklyn Flowers. “I’ll wager you that we’ve got lads scattered all over half the bloody Stepstones too.”
“With my elephants,” Harry Strickland said, in a mournful tone. (aDwD, The Griffin Reborn)

Dropping sites and castles taken by the Golden Company

The Stepstones was indeed the pirate haunt that Salladhor Saan was gunning for when he last said his goodbyes to Davos. If you wonder about the timeline, Davos I of aDwD occurs well before the end of aFfC’s timeline. As Cat of the Canals, Arya learns of Saan returning to his pirate ways at the Stepstones.

A mate on the green galley wolfed half a dozen oysters and told her how his captain had been killed by the Lysene pirates who had tried to board them near the Stepstones. “That bastard Saan it was, with Old Mother’s Son and his big Valyrian. We got away, but just.” (aFfC, Cat of the Canals)

Salla went pirate with his remaining fleet at the Stepstones shortly before the Volantenese fleet dropped sections of the Golden Company off at this location. Most arguments and literary hints in the novels that foreshadow that Salla operates in support of the Golden Company will be covered in an essay specifically on him. For now, the profile and geographical match around the right time suffice to propose him as a realistic candidate with the opportunity and some means to help the Golden Company.

Return to index

Arguments for a Fleet

While potential allies for the Golden Company are regularly discussed – Dorne, the friends in the Reach – this rarely includes naval allies. But it is the most handy ally when your army and elephants are spread across the southern shores of the Narrow Sea and are in dire need to be unified quickly. If the Golden Company picked up such an alliance shortly after the initial landings on the southern shores of the Narrow Sea, then we should see hints to this.

The first hint is the claim the Golden Company took Tarth.

“Here.” Pycelle pointed with a spotted hand. […] “Here and here. All along the coast, and on the islands. Tarth, the Stepstones, even Estermont. And now we have reports that Connington is moving on Storm’s End.” (aDwD, Epilogue)

“Tarth has fallen too, some fisherfolk will tell you,” said Valena. “These sellswords now hold most of Cape Wrath and half the Stepstones. We hear talk of elephants in the rainwood.” (tWoW, Arianne I excerpt)

We are inclined to believe that the Volantenese ships dropped some of the Golden Company off on Tarth as haphazzardly as they did for Greenstone. Valena Toland’s referencing “strange sails” deepens this impression as it is a phrase we are bound to associate with the Volantenese fleet.

Valene to Arianne: “Since the Redwyne fleet passed through the Stepstones, those waters are crawling with strange sails, all the way north to the Straights of Tarth and Shipbreaker’s Bay.” (tWoW, Arianne I excerpt)

When we look at the map, however, there is a significant difference. Greenstone and the Stepstones lie en route to the beaches of Cape Wrath, Jon Connington’s intended destination. But Tarth and Shipbreaker’s Bay lie further north, well beyond Jon’s destination. If the Volantenese fleet delivered the Golden Company on such shores, they were seriously off course!

The fall storms of the Narrow Sea were one of the reasons that the Volantenese put the Golden Company ashore wherever they could as fast as possible. Now, Shipbreaker’s Bay is famous for its storms during any season, let alone fall or winter. Stannis’ father and mother perished with their ship in that Bay within view of Storm’s End. The legends of the first Durrandon building Storm’s End revolves around the stormy nature of that bay. This would be waters that the Volantenese would avoid. Of course, there is a chance that a storm sent some Volantenese ships off course. But it seems more likely that the “strange sails” in Shipbreaker’s Bay and around the waters of Tarth belong to a new seafaring ally, with far better knowledge, interests and ties into Shipbreaker’s Bay.

Aurane Waters, by Nachio Molina

Indeed, Valena includes “Myrmen, Volantenese, Lyseni and reavers of the Iron Islands” under the banner of “strange sails” (tWoW, Arianne I excerpt). She also mentions a new pirate king, believed by many readers to be Aurane Waters with Cersei’s stolen fleet of dromonds.

Valena to Arianne: “A new pirate king has set up on Torturer’s Deep. The Lord of the Waters, he styles himself. This one has real warships, three-deckers, monstrous large.”  (tWoW, Arianne I excerpt)

George seems to deliberately muddy the waters here with confusing reports, as he already hinted through Jon Connington that he would do so to “bring allies to the cause”.

Jon Connington: “Let the Lannisters suspect Stannis Baratheon, pirates from the Stepstones, outlaws out of the woods, or whoever else they cared to blame. If the reports that reached King’s Landing were confused and contradictory, so much the better. The slower the Iron Throne was to react, the longer they would have to gather their strength and bring allies to the cause.” (aDwD, The Griffin Reborn)

So, Pycelle’s reports and Valena’s claims represent an altered geographical situation than the one during the Griffin Reborn, and it lends support to the idea of the Golden Company having an as of yet undisclosed but new naval ally, which thematically fits the Turtle symbolism of making his mode of transportation a shell of a VW Beetle with plate armor from various salvaged battleships.

Another strong indication for such an ally would be the speed at which the Golden Company and elephants are fully operational and conquer different sites with great distances between them, such as Tarth and indeed the taking of Storm’s End.

“We have rooms prepared for you and yours, princess,” this Halden said, when the introductions finally ran their course. “I trust that they will suit. I know you seek Lord Connington, and he desires words with you as well, most urgently. If it please you, on the morrow there will be a ship to take you to him.”
“Where?” demanded Arianne.
“Has no one told you?” Halden Halfmaester favored her with a smile thin and hard as a dagger cut. “Storm’s End is ours. The Hand awaits you there.” (tWoW, Arianne II, excerpt)

Arianne I and Arianne II were originally chapters written to be included in aDwD, just like Arya’s Mercy or Sansa’s Alayne in the Vale and so on. They were pulled, because the book was too large. If these and other chapters had been included, we would have ended the Meereen arc with what seemed a sure victory for Selmy, Tyrion and Victarion against the slavers, but also the news that Jon Connington had captured Storm’s End, instead of still marching for it. This means that after landing on the Stepstones, Greenstone and Cape Wrath, the Golden Company managed to conquer all of Cape Wrath and quickly widened the territory to include Storm’s End, Tarth and Shipbreaker’s Bay, within aDwD’s timeline. More, Aegon’s confidence in wanting to meet an oncoming army in the field outside of Storm’s End also points to him having the complete Golden Company at his disposal. This is only possible with swift ships that were sailing the Narrow Sea and captains without loyalty to either Cersei or Stannis that came to the Company’s aid after the Volantenese dropped them off.

Return to index

The Valyrian

While this mention of a ship to transport Arianne to Storm’s End seems not that important, in comparison to the news of Storm’s End having been taken, I am very curious to learn which captain will welcome Arianne aboard his ship in Arianne III – Aurane Waters on a renamed Lord Tywin or Sweet Cersei or Salladhor Saan on his great galleas Valyrian? Either one of these two will clarify a great many things almost instantly to the reader without George having to go into much detail. Certainly each of them fit in Arianne’s tendency to meet a string of Valyrian looking men:

Darkstar. (I was unable to track the author)
  1. Ser Gerold Darkstar Dayne in aFfC, The Queenmaker, with hair as a silver glacier (and a black streak), dark angry purple eyes. In Arianne’s mind he is the most handsome man of all Dorne and the cruelest moustache twirling rogue. Arianne believes that if she married him, their children would be as beautiful as dragonlords. It is covertly hinted in the same paragraph and the next that Arianne may have had an affair or encounter with Gerold in the past, and that she was infatuated with him once, having a preference for handsome bad men. The aWoIaF app also claims there were lovers once or twice. While Daynes are not known dragonlords, they do features physical traits that appear Valyrian and George has referred to Daynes as comparable to proto-Valyrian. In other words, these physical features of purple eyes and/or silver hair predate Valyaria and are part of their phenotype even as First Men.
  2. Lysono Maar in tWoW, Arianne II excerpt. The spymaster of the Golden Company is from Lys where the Valyrian looks are the most prevalent, even amongst commoners, and so, Lysono has white-gold hair and lilac eyes. Another striking feature is people’s perception of Lysono’s gender identity and how they express or play with it, including painting their nails purple and wear noticeable jewelry from their ears. When Arianne meets Lysono outsde of Griffin’s Roost, she starts to say, “You look …”. Lysono finishes her sentence with “… like a woman?”. But Arianne corrects Lysono: “… like a Targaryen.” It is important to remember that Arianne’s cousin, the Sand Snake Sarella, studies in the guise of a young man at the Citadel in Oldtown, going by the name Alleras. In the essay on Haldon the Halfmaester, I argue that Alleras is most likely trans. Arianne may not fully understand it, but she is aware of it and seems to respects this as being an integral part of them. Given that Arianne is on her way to meet Jon Connington and Aegon Targaryen, recently learned she was supposed to marry Viserys Targaryen and was attracted to Ser Gerold Dayne with his proto-Valiryan looks, Arianne’s interest may indeed have genuinely been sparked more by Lysono’s Valyarian features than their gender fluid appearance. She wonders whether Viserys looked like Lysono, and indeed these two are the sole characters in the main* series described as having pale lilac eyes. Even when Arianne finds that something about Lysono makes her skin crawl, this is linked to Viserys Targaryen: that perhaps it is for the better that Viserys is dead then. And I am quite certain that most readers are glad he is dead.
Lysono Maar, by wyattabernathyus

* In Fire and Blood, the black bride Rhaena Targaryen and the father of Rhaenys the Queen who Never was, Aemon Targaryen are also described as having eyes pale as lilac.

So, in that sense, we should almost expect the captain who sails Arianne to Aegon to have Valyrian features or references in Arianne’s third chapter, before she meet Jon Connington and the Spider’s Aegon Targaryen.

  • Salladhor Saan is also a Lyseni. His fair hair has gone completely white. There is no explicit mention of the colour of his eyes being in the purple range, but at the very least his galleas is Valyarian.
  • The alternative escort would be Aurane Waters on one of the dromonds. His eyes are grey-green rather than purple, but he does have the silver-gold hair (though more silvery than gold) and reminds Cersei of Rhaegar, the supposed father of Aegon Targaryen and husband of Arianne’s aunt, Elia Martell.
Jon Connngton and Aegon Targaryen, by wyattabernathyus

Overall, we should expect plenty of Valyrian looking characters to flock to Aegon’s side, since he is set up as the poster boy Targaryen prince, who at the very least must look the part.

Return to index

Proposal – Amalgam of Battleships

So, to conclude, I propose that Aegon’s Golden Company acquired a fleet comprised of various prior factions, with each serving different purposes and varying degrees of loyalty:

  • merchant cogs of Greenstone
  • Aurane Waters and the dromonds he had Cersei fund to build and then stole from her
  • Salladhor Saan’s last remaining galleas(es), with each serving a different purpose and having varying degrees of loyalty.

The order in which they became an ally may be surprising and for some goes a long way back. I believe for example that Aurane Waters was recruited by Varys shortly after his capture at the Blackwater; that Aurane proposed the dromond fleet to the small council with the intent to sail with them to welcome Aegon’s (and Dany’s) arrival at the Stepstones with it. He used the dromonds to gain control over the Stepstones from the pirates, including Salladhor Saan with the remainder of his swift fleet. His dromonds are made to transport large numbers of soldiers and even elephants, which the Volantenese fleet dropped off on the Stepstones.

Meanwhile, once outnumbered by Aurane’s dromonds, Salla agreed to sell his sails to the coming Golden Company in return for gold. He was the captain who uses Davos’ smuggle route into Storm’s End to trick Ser Gilbert into giving the Golden Company access into the formidable castle unwittingly. The cogs of Greenstone were commandeered and at some point manned with pirates from the Stepstones, who are under Aurane’s command, since he is the Lord of the Waters. These may have been used to approach Tarth and small coastal keeps without raising suspicion or alarm. But the true military strength and agility come from Aurane’s dromonds and Salla’s galleas.

This amalgam of battleships of various fleets from former and or rivaling claimants fits with the various allusions to George’s hero of the Turle of Wild Cards, and it continues Aegon’s story and perhaps even origin: he grew up on boat and traversed rivers all of his young life. We meet him for the first time as Young Griff, on a boat, the Shy Maid. Upon revealing himself to the Golden Company, the direction in which the Volantenese fleet sails determines Aegon’s next course: to Westeros instead of Slaver’s Bay. And so, it seems inevitable that his conquering of the Stormlands and potentially King’s Landing with the Iron Throne would involve a proper fleet. If Aegon is a pisswater prince of King’s Landing or a descendant of a bastard line of the Targaryens, then he basically is an Aegon Waters.

Of course I would never ask you to believe my claim without providing some literary evidence, especially with regards to Aurane and Salla. These I will provide in an essay for each separately.

Return to index

Brandon’s Blood Seal (Part 1) – What’s in a Name

(Top Image: Wolves of the North, by Cristi Balanescu. Depicting Ned Stark in the godswood with Ice and two direwolves prowling)

In 2019, George RR Martin’s visited Castle Ward of Northern Ireland, the night before the start of Titancon in Belfast. Castle Ward was the set for Winterfell and the Inn of the Crossroads in the show. The event started with a podium interview, followed by a bbq dinner with George meeting the people who had bought tickets for it. I was one of the people who got to meet George that night, sat with him on a bench in a tent, not that much different than Robb’s armies once did at the Twins. And no, this feast did not end in a red wedding.

George RR Martin at Castle Ward (2019) and meeting
George RR Martin speaking at Castle Ward (left), meeting George RR Martin (right), August 2019

During the stage interview, George answered the audience’s prepicked question about his choice for the name Bran, and whether this was because the name means raven or crow. He explained that he knew its etymological meaning, but it was not the reason why he picked the name. He just wanted a strong sounding one and Bran was it. He simply liked the name.

This does not mean, however, that George did not incorporate the name’s meaning visually and symbolically after choosing it. The etymological meaning for names is not irrelevant. But it is not a reason why he selects a name for his main characters. In the clip below of an interview, George explains he needs to choose a name first, before he can write about a character.

He began to write aSoIaF, because the scenes of Bran’s first chapter kept intruding into his writing of a never published novel Avalon. And so, we can be certain that Bran was one of the first names he chose. We also know that he prefers to write out one POV first, before moving on to the next. In other words, much of the imagery after Bran’s first chapter followed from the initial scenes and the choosing of Bran’s name, which then bleeds over in the next POV, etc.

Index

The Brandons

So, Bran means raven or crow in Old Welsh, but also refers to the biological process of decay following from bacteria and fungal action. Bran is also a shortened version of Brandon, which means chieftain or prince in Old Irish (breenhin). This implies that whenever Meera or Jojen refer to Bran as their prince, they are calling him their Brandon.

In Old English Brandon can also mean beacon hill  (brom + dun). This of course immediately brings Battle Isle and the beacon of the Hightower to mind. Regardless on whether Brandon the Builder or his son Brandon helped build the tower, we can see why George wants us to associate Brandon with the Hightower.

The first “high tower,” the chroniclers tell us, was made of wood and rose some fifty feet above the ancient fortress that was its foundation. Neither it, nor the taller timber towers that followed in the centuries to come, were meant to be a dwelling; they were purely beacon towers, built to light a path for trading ships up the fog-shrouded waters of Whispering Sound. The early Hightowers lived amidst the gloomy halls, vaults, and chambers of the strange stone below. It was only with the building of the fifth tower, the first to be made entirely of stone, that the Hightower became a seat worthy of a great house. That tower, we are told, rose two hundred feet above the harbor. Some say it was designed by Brandon the Builder, whilst others name his son, another Brandon; the king who demanded it, and paid for it, is remembered as Uthor of the High Tower. (tWoIaF – The Reach: Oldtown)

The beacon is also used as a sign to call the banners to war – they do so with a green flame, which likely would be wildfire.

Atop the Hightower, the great beacon fire turned a baleful green as Lord Martyn Hightower called his banners. (Fire & Blood – The Sons of the Dragon)

The word brand means fierce or fire. In Dutch we refer to a fire as a brand. In English you still retain this meaning with firebrand or in the branding of someone (with a hot poker). This is derived from Old French brand or brant (“sword”) and brandon (“kindle material”). Hence brand also means a torch or flaming sword. So, perhaps we should regard the name Brandon as brand-on, or more precisely “flaming sword on” (for the bolt-on fans, wink wink) or “light the sword” with flame.

It therefore is fair to conclude that the crows on top of the broken tower during Bran’s climb and the image of the Three-Eyed Crow in Bran’s coma dream followed from George’s choice of the name he liked for Bran. And even the idea of a magical flaming sword Lightbringer goes back to the name choice of Bran, after including the longer name Brandon.

So to sum up, Bran and Brandon cover the following meanings:

  • Bran: raven, crow
  • Brand: fire, sword => torch or flaming sword
  • Brandon:
    • chieftain, prince
    • beacon hill
    • kindle material

Brandon is an almost exclusive name for the Stark lineage. Of the twenty two mentioned Brandons, only four are not Starks:

  • the alleged forefather Brandon of the Bloody Blade from the Reach, son of Garth the Green. He is the sole Brandon associated to a completely different region than the North.
  • The Norrey, Brandon Norrey, who visits the Night’s Watch for Alys Karstark’s wedding and brings a wet nurse to Castle Black.
  • his son and heir Brandon “The Younger” Norrey, who joined Stannis’ campaign to free Deepwood Motte and capture Winterfell
  • Brandon Tallhart, son of the castellan Leobald Tallhart, and held captive at Torrhen Square by the Ironborn.

Of the eighteen Brandon Starks only two are textually referred to as Bran: POV Bran Stark and the founder of House Stark, Brandon the Builder. This invites us to consider parallels between POV Bran and the Builder. The other Brandon Stark that is up for parallel scrutiny is Bran’s late uncle, since Bran was named after his dead uncle.

And then there is this quote from Bran’s POV.

“I could tell you the story about Brandon the Builder,” Old Nan said. “That was always your favorite.”
Thousands and thousands of years ago, Brandon the Builder had raised Winterfell, and some said the Wall. Bran knew the story, but it had never been his favorite. Maybe one of the other Brandons had liked that story. Sometimes Nan would talk to him as if he were her Brandon, the baby she had nursed all those years ago, and sometimes she confused him with his uncle Brandon, who was killed by the Mad King before Bran was even born. She had lived so long, Mother had told him once, that all the Brandon Starks had become one person in her head. (aGoT, Bran IV)

In other words, if we wish to learn more about Brandon the Builder’s story, we must look at all the other Brandons for potential hints, for in the head of the “storyteller” all the Brandons are one. We know this is in relaton to the Builder, because that is the story Old Nan wanted to tell.

So, for example, the story about baby Brandon that Old Nan nursed, may be a clue that baby Builder had a wetnurse, because his mother was unavaiilable. By itself this seems extremely speculative, but not that unlikely a guess when the whole wetnurse theme pops up again with Jon Snow and Edric Dayne being milk brothers, and Brandon “The” Norrey bringing a wetnurse for a motherless infant to Castle Black.

Which Brandon?

This example of speculation seems rather inconsequentional. But with Bran’s uncle Brandon Stark we get quite interesting scenes with noteworthy symbolical meaning. Lady Barbrey Dustin mentions how Brandon Stark loved his bloody sword.

“Brandon loved his sword. He loved to hone it. ‘I want it sharp enough to shave the hair from a woman’s cunt,’ he used to say. And how he loved to use it. ‘A bloody sword is a beautiful thing,’ he told me once.” (aDwD, The Turncloak)

She clarifies that this is not just about a physical sword, but Brandon’s penis and how he loves taking a woman’s virginity, getting his “sword” bloody. And then in the World Book we learn that Brandon the Builder’s ancestor or father was Brandon of the Bloody Blade, son of Garth the Green. The World Book explains this nickname as having come about for this ancestral Brandon killed a lot of children of the forest in the Reach. But via Brandon “Bloody Sword” Stark, we now have a literary connection to assume that Brandon of the Bloody Blade was as much a philanderer of highborn daughters as Brandon Stark is implied to have been. And this then raises several questions

  • Who was the Builder’s mother?
  • What was the Builder’s birth status?

Houses in the Reach who stipulate a connection to Garth via one of his children, usually also include who Garth’s son or daughter wed. Not so for Brandon the Builder’s lineage. Maybe his mother was a smallfolk beauty. If so, then Brandon the Builder was born a bastard amongst the smallfolk. Or maybe his mother was a higborn daughter who had an out of wedlock dalliance with Brandon of the Bloody Blade. This would make Brandon the Builder a highborn bastard. Especially in the latter case, that seeming inoccuous hint for the Builder having had a wetnurse begins to gel.

Or how about Bran’s visit into the crypts with maester Luwin after he dreamt about his father Ned Stark being down there? As they walk towards Ned Stark’s “empty” tomb, down the vault, Luwin asks Bran to recite his history and ancestry to Osha, who carries Bran.

“Do you recall your history, Bran?” the maester said as they walked. “Tell Osha who they were and what they did, if you can.” He looked at the passing faces and the tales came back to him. The maester had told him the stories, and Old Nan had made them come alive. (aGoT, Bran VII)

When they reach Ned Stark’s prepared tomb, Maester Luwin reaches inside the tomb to prove it is empty, but out jumps Shaggydog. As Luwin defends himself against the direwolf’s attack, he lets his torch fly in the air and it ends up kissing the cheek of Brandon Stark’s statue. [Luwin] thrust his arm into the blackness inside the tomb, as into the mouth of some great beast.

Bran saw eyes like green fire, a flash of teeth, fur as black as the pit around them. Maester Luwin yelled and threw up his hands. The torch went flying from his fingers, caromed off the stone face of Brandon Stark, and tumbled to the statue’s feet, the flames licking up his legs. (aGoT, Bran VII)

Shaggydog’s eyes are compared to green fire. First of all “green eyes” stand for “greenseeing”, while fire is something that we tend to associate with dragons and R’hllor. But green fire is wildfire: a coming together of greenseeing with fire.

And then we literally witness fire “caroming” (gently touching, aka kissing) Brandon’s face, to then lick his legs. A few paragraphs earlier, George already compared the flame of the torch to a tongue, as they pass the statues of Kings in the North.

“They were the Kings in the North for thousands of years,” Maester Luwin said, lifting the torch high so the light shone on the stone faces. Some were hairy and bearded, shaggy men fierce as the wolves that crouched by their feet. Others were shaved clean, their features gaunt and sharp-edged as the iron longswords across their laps. “Hard men for a hard time. Come.” He strode briskly down the vault, past the procession of stone pillars and the endless carved figures. A tongue of flame trailed back from the upraised torch as he went. (aGoT, Bran VII)

The tongue of fire is said to “trail back”, which is an allusion to going back in time. When we consider the whole context, including Bran’s histories, we can determine this scene is aimed at shedding a light on the past. In fact, the crypts represent and depict the past. The statues with iron swords in their lap are an ancient custom. Each and every lord and king of House Stark has been depicted seated on a throne with a direwolf at his feet and a sword in his lap.

“The steps go farther down,” observed Lady Dustin.
“There are lower levels. Older. The lowest level is partly collapsed, I hear. I have never been down there.” (aDwD, The Turncloak)

The crypts, statues and their swords are a favourite mystery amongst readers to speculate and wonder about. Why are the older levels deeper? Does it not make more sense that when you dig a crypt, you only dig six feet for the older generations, and then deeper over time for the newer kings? Were the pre-Andal crypt swords made of bronze instead of iron? Did they make a statue for Brandon the Builder in the lowest vault? The answer has been staring us in the face since Bran arrived at Bloodraven’s cave.

  • In Bran’s second chapter of aGoT, he informs us that the grounds of Winterfell within the walls are not levelled, but consist of hills and valleys.
  • Bran also tells us that the crypts’ vaults are cavernous and longer than winterfell itself.
  • Winterfell has a natural underground hot spring.
  • Bloodraven’s cave north of the Wall is littered with bones of dead greenseers and their animals they skinchanged: a graveyard.
  • Thrones are made of weirwood roots for greenseers or apprentices.

Hot Springs are either caused by shallow flows of magma or via circulation of water or gas through faults as far as the hot rock deep in the planet’s crust. Since there is no record or legend of volcanic activity in or near Winterfell, its hotsprings are the result of circulation through faults. The heat itself is always a result of radioactive decay of natural elements in a planet’s mantle, the layer beneath the crust. In other words, Winterfell has a cave system going deep into the earth and crust. The crypts never needed to be dug out at all! That is why the oldest graves are deeper beneath the ground and why the crypts are cavernous and longer than Winterfell’s perimeter.

And where are greenseers trained? How do they prolong their lives? They sit on weirwood thrones made of roots and moss, with their animals close for a second life, in hollow hills and cave systems, beneath a weirwood tree. Where do they die? On those thrones. What happens to their bones? They remain where they died.

“Bones,” said Bran. “It’s bones.” The floor of the passage was littered with the bones of birds and beasts. But there were other bones as well, big ones that must have come from giants and small ones that could have been from children. On either side of them, in niches carved from the stone, skulls looked down on them. Bran saw a bear skull and a wolf skull, half a dozen human skulls and near as many giants. All the rest were small, queerly formed. Children of the forest. The roots had grown in and around and through them, every one. (aDwD, Bran II)

Bran’s description of the graveyard of greenseers and the animals they skinchanged in Bloodraven’s cave most likely describes what would be found in the lowest partially collapsed vault of the Winterfell crypts. When you realize that Brandon the Builder’s last years of life was that of a greenseer on a weirwood throne, deep underground, and so were his earliest descendants, then it becomes very obvious why the Starks started this tradition of making seated statues of their ruling Starks on thrones in that cave system.

As Hodor he explored the caves. He found chambers full of bones, shafts that plunged deep into the earth, a place where the skeletons of gigantic bats hung upside down from the ceiling. He even crossed the slender stone bridge that arched over the abyss and discovered more passages and chambers on the far side. One was full of singers, enthroned like Brynden in nests of weirwood roots that wove under and through and around their bodies. Most of them looked dead to him, but as he crossed in front of them their eyes would open and follow the light of his torch, and one of them opened and closed a wrinkled mouth as if he were trying to speak.(aDwD, Bran III)

Greenseers dream and sit on thrones for an extended part of their life, but they also die on those thrones and their bones remain where they died. A new weirwood throne is created for a new greenseer, and so on, and thrones can even be made in the readiness for young living greenseers, both for training and later, when they are old, to prolong their life.

The statue of Bran’s uncle, Brandon Stark, therefore embodies a greenseer kissed by fire, a wildfire greenseer, like Bloodraven (who is a greenseer with dragonlord blood), and that greenseer would have been the man referred to as Brandon the Builder. We know “kissed by fire” certainly does not apply literally to Bran’s dead uncle. Brandon “Bloody Sword” Stark did not die in wildfire flames. Instead he choked himself on a torture tool while trying to reach for his sword in the hope to save his father from being cooked in his armor by wildfire.

And then there is the “namesake” thought of Bran in relation to his uncle. This is how his POV words it.

Brandon took his namesake’s, the sword made for the uncle he had never known. He knew he would not be much use in a fight, but even so the blade felt good in his hand. (aCoK, Bran VII)

Note how Bran is referred to as Brandon here (a rare occasion), and that his uncle is made the namesake of Bran. But Bran’s uncle Brandon Stark could not be the namesake of his nephew Bran, since the first died long before the second was born. It only works if Brandon Stark was a namesake of another greenseer Brandon, which would have been the Builder.

The tradition of the statues in the crypts preserves the memory of their beginnings, of their founder, even though the present day Starks like Ned Stark have come to believe that children of the forest and greenseers are mere fairytales, let alone how they operate or where they reside.

[Ned] swept the lantern in a wide semicircle. Shadows moved and lurched. Flickering light touched the stones underfoot and brushed against a long procession of granite pillars that marched ahead, two by two, into the dark. Between the pillars, the dead sat on their stone thrones against the walls, backs against the sepulchres that contained their mortal remains. […] The Lords of Winterfell watched them pass. Their likenesses were carved into the stones that sealed the tombs. In long rows they sat, blind eyes staring out into eternal darkness, while great stone direwolves curled round their feet. The shifting shadows made the stone figures seem to stir as the living passed by. (aGoT, Eddard I)

Even the making of a weirwood throne for a greenseer child in training, such as Bran, has been incorporated in the Stark’s burial practices: the tombs for the living children are already assigned and prepared.

[Arya]’d been just a little girl the first time she saw [the crypts of Winterfell]. Her brother Robb had taken them down, her and Sansa and baby Bran, who’d been no bigger than Rickon was now. They’d only had one candle between them, and Bran’s eyes had gotten as big as saucers as he stared at the stone faces of the Kings of Winter, with their wolves at their feet and their iron swords across their laps. Robb took them all the way down to the end, past Grandfather and Brandon and Lyanna, to show them their own tombs. (aGoT, Arya IV)

This then might explain why the wives of the Kings and Lords are not buried inside the crypts, but daughters are (even though they normally do not get statues). And this is likely the origin of the belief that there always must be a Stark in Winterfell. This was not just the seat of the Kings of Winter, but the sacred seat of greenseer kings and their students, where they enhanced their powers in the darkness beneath the hills.

We can even find an allusion to this in the etymological meaning of -fell of the name Winterfell. Wizz-the-Smith mentions in his essay on Hollow Hills that –fell means hill. But it encompasses all of the following:

  • The most obvious one would be to fell or strike down or cut down winter
  • It also means skin or pelt. In Dutch we still say vel.
  • Thirdly it means hill or mountain.
  • And finally it means strong, fierce, but also terrible and cruel. Which conflates with the meaning for stark.

So, –fell is a great suffix to encompass both the characterization of the severe Stark Kings of Winter as well as skinchanging beneath a hill. I have already mentioned the many hints we get via Bran’s description of the layour of Winterfell and the existence of hot springs that Winterfell is indeed a hill with a cave system beneath it, and how this view resolves a great many questions about the crypts. The Starks never needed to dig out tunnels to create the crypts of their dead, because it was a pre-existing cave system.

The etymology of the word crypt is certainly interesting:

  • It comes from Latin, where it meant vault.
  • As so often is the case with Latin many of their words were derived from ancient Greek. In this case it is kruptós, which means hidden or secret.
    • The word cryptic is derived from this, which can mean having a hidden meaning or having a mystic nature and in zoology it means camouflaged.
  • One of its primary meanings, before it got outdated, was cave or cavern.
  • Now we mostly associate this with an underground burial place in a church.

The Winterfell crypts therefore camouflage the true secret origins of Winterfell as an underground city. When Arya arrives at Beric’s hollow hill in the Riverlands, this can be read as her going back to her “roots”. Here she witnesses how a hollow hill with a symbolical greenseer is a sanctuary for the smallfolk.

When Harwin pulled the hood off her head, the ruddy glare inside the hollow hill made Arya blink like some stupid owl. A huge firepit had been dug in the center of the earthen floor, and its flames rose swirling and crackling toward the smoke-stained ceiling. The walls were equal parts stone and soil, with huge white roots twisting through them like a thousand slow pale snakes. People were emerging from between those roots as she watched; edging out from the shadows for a look at the captives, stepping from the mouths of pitch-black tunnels, popping out of crannies and crevices on all sides. In one place on the far side of the fire, the roots formed a kind of stairway up to a hollow in the earth where a man sat almost lost in the tangle of weirwood. (aSoS, Arya VI)

Whole families are shown to live alongside their “greenseer” Beric. Certainly during a Long Night and a winter lasting generations, living underground makes the most sense: temperatures underground remains relatively stable. During winter it would actually be warmer beneath the ground than above, especially if the walls of the caves are heated by hot springs. Theon notices this when he visits the crypts with Lady Barbrey Dustin.

He had always thought of the crypts as cold, and so they seemed in summer, but now as they descended the air grew warmer. Not warm, never warm, but warmer than above. Down there below the earth, it would seem, the chill was constant, unchanging. (aDwD, The Turncloak)

This would be the main reason why the people of the closest settlement south of the Wall live underground in Mole’s Town.

Mole’s Town was bigger than it seemed, but three quarters of it was under the ground, in deep warm cellars connected by a maze of tunnels. Even the whorehouse was down there, nothing on the surface but a wooden shack no bigger than a privy, with a red lantern hung over the door. (aGoT, Jon IX)

The Bryndens

As History of Westeros points out in their podcast on Brandon the Builder, the name Brynden is a variation of Brandon.

“I wore many names when I was quick, but even I once had a mother, and the name she gave me at her breast was Brynden.”
“I have an uncle Brynden,” Bran said. “He’s my mother’s uncle, really. Brynden Blackfish, he’s called.”
“Your uncle may have been named for me. Some are, still. Not so many as before. Men forget. Only the trees remember.” His voice was so soft that Bran had to strain to hear. (aDwD, Bran III)

Brynden “Blackfish” Tully was named after Brynder “Bloodraven” Rivers, while Lord Tytos Blackwood’s eldest son and heir is also called Bynden. Brynden is a variation of Brandon, which is Bran’s name too, and Bran was named after his dead uncle Brandon Stark, but the name Brandon goes all the way back to the legendary founder of House Stark, Brandon the Builder. So all of these are each other’s namesakes, forming an overarching name-group of the Brandons. The Bryndens basically are the Brandons of the Riverlands.

Bloodraven

Inside the cave, we end up with two Brandons side by side: Brandon the Elder and Bran the younger, mentor and pupil respectively.

Three Eyed Crow, by Aldo Katanayagi

As a Brandon, Bloodraven ought to display some of the name’s meaning. His cave is beneath a hill with a weirwood grove. You may not have thought of it this way yet, but consider a winter world covered in snow. There is no way to distinguish landmarks, not even hills really. And then you have a grove of red evergreen canopy on top of a hill where you can find shelter from wights and Others. That hill acts as a natural beacon, leading people to safety: a beacon hill, a brandon.

“The cave is warded. They cannot pass.” The ranger used his sword to point. “You can see the entrance there. Halfway up, between the weirwoods, that cleft in the rock.” […]  Bran craned himself sideways to better see the cave. Then he saw something else. “A fire!” In the little cleft between the weirwood trees was a flickering glow, a ruddy light calling through the gathering gloom. (aDwD, Bran II)

Brynden himself features the colors of a weirwood, with his albino skin and red eye. This makes Bloodraven a living human beacon, and not necessarily with the implication of Sauron’s roaming eye. We could even say that Brynden Rivers is a wildfire beacon, for he is a greenseer and, as Aegon IV’s son, he has Targaryen dragonblood.

Before them a pale lord in ebon finery sat dreaming in a tangled nest of roots, a woven weirwood throne that embraced his withered limbs as a mother does a child. His body was so skeletal and his clothes so rotted that at first Bran took him for another corpse, a dead man propped up so long that the roots had grown over him, under him, and through him. What skin the corpse lord showed was white, save for a bloody blotch that crept up his neck onto his cheek. His white hair was fine and thin as root hair and long enough to brush against the earthen floor. Roots coiled around his legs like wooden serpents. One burrowed through his breeches into the desiccated flesh of his thigh, to emerge again from his shoulder. A spray of dark red leaves sprouted from his skull, and grey mushrooms spotted his brow. A little skin remained, stretched across his face, tight and hard as white leather, but even that was fraying, and here and there the brown and yellow bone beneath was poking through. “Are you the three-eyed crow?” Bran heard himself say. A three-eyed crow should have three eyes. He has only one, and that one red. Bran could feel the eye staring at him, shining like a pool of blood in the torchlight. Where his other eye should have been, a thin white root grew from an empty socket, down his cheek, and into his neck. (aDwD, Bran II)

Aside from his coloring, in this passage Brynden Rivers is portrayed as

  • decaying with mushrooms (fungi) growing on him, which is one of the etymological meanings of Bran. It makes him look like a corpse, but he appeared as a corpse to Dunk even in his younger years, before he was Hand even.
  • Bran refers to him as the three-eyed crow, and he once was a crow of the Night’s Watch. We could even say he was Lord Crow, as he was their Lord Commander.
  • As Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch he was a chieftain.
  • The image also references his winestain birthmark which earned him the nickname Lord Bloodraven, because to some people it appears to have the shape of a raven. His personal loyal guard were called Raven’s Teeth. His mother was Melissa Blackwood, and House Blackwood’s sigil features a dead white weirwood on a black shield, surrounded by a flock of ravens on a red field. This sigil portrays Raventree Hall, after the Brackens poisoned their weirwood. Though the weirwood itself is dead, its ravens still return each night to roost. Finally, I showcase in Quoth the Raven that Bloodraven skinchanges Mormont’s raven acting as advisor and alarm clock for the Lord Commander, in his own way still staying true to his vows.
House_Blackwood
Sigil of House Blackwood
  • While the quoted passage inside the cave does not focus on this, we know from other sources that he was a royal bastard, fathered by Aegon “the Unworthy” IV. At the end of his life, Aegon legitimized each and every of his bastards – noble born or not. And this technically made Brynden Rivers a prince, just as much as Daemon Blackfyre, even though unlike Daemon he never chose to alter his name Rivers that indicated he was a bastard.
  • He possesses or possessed a Valyrian steel sword, Dark Sister. During a Q & A in 2018, Ashaya of History of Westeros asked whether Bloodraven took the Valyrian sword Dark Sister with him to the Wall when he joined the Night’s Watch. And George said one very clear word – “Yes”. (fragment of Ashaya’s question and George’s answer on History of Westeros’ youtube video of The Three Eyed Bloodraven above). It is not confirmed whether Bloodraven also took Dark Sister on his last ranging, but since it has not been reported anywhere at the Wall or south of it, it seems safe to assume that that Dark Sister is in fact inside the cave. It would be odd to go ranging that far north of the Wall and leave your Valyrian steel sword behind, right? Neither this Valyrian steel sword or any other has been magically set aflame (yet), but it allegedly is either dragonforged or with the help of dragonflame. So, it represents a flaming sword in a symbolic way. And it certainly can be considered a magical sword, since the forging also involves spells and Valyrian steel is used as a chain link by the maesters to indicate the maester studied magic. It may not be a sword that gives off light, like Dawn, but it certainly can be considered to be Dawn’s dark sister.

The properties of Valyrian steel are well-known, and are the result of both folding iron many times to balance and remove impurities, and the use of spells—or at least arts we do not know—to give unnatural strength to the resulting steel. (tWoIaF – Ancient History: Valyria’s children)

“This is Valyrian steel,” [maester Luwin] said when the link of dark grey metal lay against the apple of his throat. “Only one maester in a hundred wears such a link. This signifies that I have studied what the Citadel calls the higher mysteries—magic, for want of a better word. […]” (aCoK, Bran IV)

So, all the possible meanings for Bran and Brandon are somehow embodied by Brynden Rivers.

Notice how Bloodraven portrays a character who is a greenseer with fireblood – a wildfire greenseer – kissed with Targaryen dragonblood. In the youtube video where Elio and Linda reviewed the finale of season 4 of the show, where Bran meets the Three-Eyed Raven (as he is named in the show), they do a spoiler section at the end. Elio once asked George when he outlined or figured out who the greenseer would be that Bran will end up training with. And George answered that initially he did not know who exactly it would be, except that he would have Targaryen blood. Only around about 1998 did he have a fleshed out background for this last greenseer. I am posting the video here, where Elio starts to relay this story.

For many this might seem more like a quote to debate on the “true” identity of the Three-Eyed-Crow, but for me George knowing that he basically needed a greenseer who was kissed by fire is the most important take away. In other words, George decided early on (1993-1994) that he wanted a greenseer north of the Wall with dragonrider blood. This character then becomes the current embodiment of a wildfire greenseer, or green fire.

 

Index

The Blackfish

Before we ever learned of Brynden Rivers’ existence, even before the three-eyed crow, we learn that Catelyn’s uncle, Brynden “Blackfish” Tully is a Knight of the Gate. A gate huh? You don’t say. We learn of Brynden’s status in relation to a gate in Winterfell’s godswood in Catelyn’s very first chapter of the series. It should certainly pique our interest that a variation of a Brandon is guarding a gate, so let us visit him there.

Silent faces watched from arrow slits in tower, battlements, and bridge. When they had climbed almost to the top, a knight rode out to meet them. His horse and his armor were grey, but his cloak was the rippling blue-and-red of Riverrun, and a shiny black fish, wrought in gold and obsidian, pinned its folds against his shoulder. “Who would pass the Bloody Gate?” he called. (aGoT, Catelyn VI)

Most interesting for the Blood Seal thesis is that the gate’s name is the Bloody Gate. And we have several visual allusions here to House Stark, the children of the forest and the Night’s Watch: silent watching faces and obsidian, the black reference combined with a gate, and a grey horse and armor.

Brynden took the black fish as his personal arms after his brother, Catelyn’s father, Lord Hoster Tully referred to him as the black goat of the family for refusing any wedding match offered to him. Brynden replied that their sigil had a trout, so he was a black fish.

“Even so,” Lord Hoster muttered. “Even so. Spit on the girl. The Redwynes. Spit on me. His lord, his brother … that Blackfish. I had other offers. Lord Bracken’s girl. Walder Frey … any of three, he said … Has he wed? Anyone? Anyone?”
“No one,” Catelyn said, “yet he has come many leagues to see you, fighting his way back to Riverrun. I would not be here now, if Ser Brynden had not helped us.”
“He was ever a warrior,” her father husked. “That he could do. Knight of the Gate, yes.” (aGoT, Catelyn XI)

The Blackfish nickname and his personal arms symbolize his decision to remain unwed. Brynden commanding the guarding of a gate, taking on black arms and remaining unwed is very much like a brother of the Night’s Watch.

Though Brynden recognizes his niece Catelyn well enough, he still holds to formal protocol towards Ser Donnel Waynwood, before he opens the gate to them.

“Who would pass the Bloody Gate?” he called.
“Ser Donnel Waynwood, with the Lady Catelyn Stark and her companions,” the young knight answered.
The Knight of the Gate lifted his visor. “I thought the lady looked familiar. You are far from home, little Cat.” […]
“May we enter the Vale?” Ser Donnel asked. The Waynwoods were ever ones for ceremony.
“In the name of Robert Arryn, Lord of the Eyrie, Defender of the Vale, True Warden of the East, I bid you enter freely, and charge you to keep his peace,” Ser Brynden replied. “Come.” (aGoT, Catelyn VI)

Take note that Ser Donnel Waynwood is stationed at the Bloody Gate. He led the sortie from the Bloody Gate to save Catelyn. He would not have been able to do so without Brynden’s knowledge or allowance. And yet both Brynden and Donnel go through the formal ceremony, as if Brynden does not know Donnel’s business and is a blind man who does not recognize the people riding towards them. This is very much like the Wall’s Black Gate, where only a sworn brother of the Night’s Watch can lead people or animals through if he says the creed of the Night’s Watch.

The Black Gate, Sam had called it, but it wasn’t black at all. It was white weirwood, and there was a face on it. A glow came from the wood, like milk and moonlight, so faint it scarcely seemed to touch anything beyond the door itself, not even Sam standing right before it. The face was old and pale, wrinkled and shrunken. It looks dead. Its mouth was closed, and its eyes; its cheeks were sunken, its brow withered, its chin sagging. If a man could live for a thousand years and never die but just grow older, his face might come to look like that. The door opened its eyes. They were white too, and blind. “Who are you?” the door asked, and the well whispered, “Who-who-who-who-who-who-who.”
“I am the sword in the darkness,” Samwell Tarly said. “I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold, the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers. I am the shield that guards the realms of men.”
“Then pass,” the door said. Its lips opened, wide and wider and wider still, until nothing at all remained but a great gaping mouth in a ring of wrinkles. Sam stepped aside and waved Jojen through ahead of him. Summer followed, sniffing as he went, and then it was Bran’s turn. Hodor ducked, but not low enough. The door’s upper lip brushed softly against the top of Bran’s head, and a drop of water fell on him and ran slowly down his nose. It was strangely warm, and salty as a tear. (aSoS, Bran IV)

There is even a reverse analogy between Catelyn seeing her uncle again after such a long time. It has been years. The Blackfish claims the years have not been kind to him, and indeed his face is weathered, wrinkled and his hair full grey, he still comes across as powerful, nor has his spirit altered.

“Take off your helm. I would look on your face again.”
“The years have not improved it, I fear,” Brynden Tully said, but when he lifted off the helm, Catelyn saw that he lied. His features were lined and weathered, and time had stolen the auburn from his hair and left him only grey, but the smile was the same, and the bushy eyebrows fat as caterpillars, and the laughter in his deep blue eyes. (aGoT, Catelyn VI)

Makes you wonder who’s face is portrayed in the Black Gate, no? Could it be Brandon the Builder? More, perhaps it is Brandon’s chosen second life, after he died?

Kerry_Barnett_passing_the_wall_II
Passing the Wall, by Kerry Barnett

After all, Leaf tells Bran that most of Brynden Rivers has gone into the tree, right after Bloodraven speculates that the Blackfish may have been named after Brynden Rivers.

“Your uncle may have been named for me. Some are, still. Not so many as before. Men forget. Only the trees remember.” His voice was so soft that Bran had to strain to hear.
“Most of him has gone into the tree,” explained the singer Meera called Leaf. “He has lived beyond his mortal span, and yet he lingers. For us, for you, for the realms of men. […]” (aDwD, Bran III)

Brynden Tully resigns from being the Knight of the Vale after Lysa’s follies and joins Cat’s journey to White Harbor and Robb’s army. He takes charge of the outriders there, or as Catelyn says,

Ser Brynden Tully was Robb’s eyes and ears, the commander of his scouts and outriders. (aCoK, Catelyn I)

Scouting and spying is what the Blackfish has in common with Bloodraven, both when he was Master of Whisperers as well as a greenseer. The Blackfish being the commander of the scouts and outriders makes him a symbolical greenseer.

Brynden Tully retakes his role as Knight of the Gate, when he holds Riverrun against the siege by the Freys and Lannisters, and meets with Jaime on the drawbridge. Nothing can persuade him to open the gate for Jaime’s army and surrender the castle, not even the life of his nephew, Edmure. And while Jaime may believe it was his threat to Edmure’s child that persuaded Edmure and eventually the Blackfish to yield the castle, the astute reader realized it was whatever sweet song Tom Sevenstreams played to Edmure about Lady Stoneheart and the Brotherhood without Banners (which Radio Westeros pointed out in their podcast about the Brotherhood). The Blackfish does not surrender the castle, nor his arms, and instead swims away.

That we should connect Brynden Tully as being one of the Riverlands’ Brandons and to Bloodraven is pointed out with yet another Brynden character – Brynden Blackwood, Lord Tytos Blackwood’s eldest son and heir.

“My second. Brynden is my eldest, and my heir. Next comes Hoster. A bookish boy, I fear.” (aDwD, Jaime I)

Tytos’ second son Lucas was slain at the Twins, making his third son Hoster, the closest surviving brother to Brynden Blackwood. Tytos’ fourth son is called Edmure. These are the three male names of the Tully men – Lord Hoster Tully, his brother Brynden Tully and Hoster’s son Edmure. So, there can be no mistake to regard Brynden Blackwood to having been named after the Blackfish, except with the Blackwoods their Brynden is the heir instead of Hoster Blackwood. But as this Brynden is a Blackwood and his name is dropped amidst talk about the dead weirwood of Raventree and how every night the ravens return to it to roost, George is also reminding the reader of Brynden “Bloodraven” Rivers whose mother was a Blackwood.

Index

The Ricks

Several character names include a variation of -ric, -rick, -ryck, -rik or -rec. There is Beric Dondarrion, Edric Dayne and Edric Storm, or Arryk and Erryk, Erik, Erich, Eldric and Elric. But also Rickard and Rickon. I refer to them as The Ricks. The reconstructed proto Germanic *rics (and Latin rex) stands for king or ruler and related to the Old English word for realm (in Dutch still Rijk or Germein Reich). While these names are not varations of Bran or Brandon, they serve to give insight into the chieftain/ruler aspect of Brandon: the king, rather than a greenseer.

(BE)ric

By the time we meet Beric as leader of the Brotherhood without Banner, Lord Dondarrion has become a visual herald of Brynden Rivers. He is introduced to us seated on a weirwood throne in a hollow hill. He shows signs of decay and is an undead corpse. And his injuries match with Bloodraven’s (one eye, caved in head, etc). Arya thinks of Beric as a scarecrow, while it goes without saying that Bloodraven is a very scary crow.

In one place on the far side of the fire, the roots formed a kind of stairway up to a hollow in the earth where a man sat almost lost in the tangle of weirwood. […] The voice came from the man seated amongst the weirwood roots halfway up the wall. […] A scarecrow of a man, he wore a ragged black cloak speckled with stars and an iron breastplate dinted by a hundred battles. A thicket of red-gold hair hid most of his face, save for a bald spot above his left ear where his head had been smashed in. […] One of his eyes was gone, Arya saw, the flesh about the socket scarred and puckered, and he had a dark black ring all around his neck. (aSoS, Arya VI)

And while Bloodraven was never hanged, Bran’s uncle, Brandon Stark, strangled himself with a Tyroshi choking device. The dark black ring around Beric’s neck “ties” him to another Brandon. The mark of being hanged for both Beric and Brandon Stark is a symbolic reference to greenseeing. As has been noted by myself and many others for years (including David Lightbringer and the Fattest Leech) we can see several allusions to Odin of Norse mythology in green(seer) characters. Being one-eyed is one of those marks, but so is hanging. Odin sacrificed his one eye in order to be allowed to drink from Mimir’s Well for wisdom and knowledge. His one eye was placed and left in the well, but in return Odin acquired two ravens Huginn (thought) and Muninn (memory) to whom Odin bestows speech. He also hung from the tree Yggdrasil (upside down) for nine days to learn to read the runes (used for fortune telling) in Mimir’s well. It compares much with the legend of Sidharta sitting beneath his tree without food to become enlightened and the Buddha.

I know that I hung on a windy tree nine long nights, wounded with a spear, dedicated to Odin, myself to myself, on that tree of which no man knows from where its roots run. No bread did they give me nor a drink from a horn, downwards I peered; I took up the runes, screaming I took them, then I fell back from there. (Poetic Edda, Havamal)

So, why does Bloodraven not have a marking of being hanged? Well, he is a real greenseer, not a symbolical one, and he is physically bound to the weirwood tree. Beric and Brandon Stark are not physically bound to a tree, but instead they have the mark of being hanged. And yes, in that sense it should be noted that Brandon Stark hanged himself not to see the future, but while attempting to reach his sword, amidst a scene of a burning. We have the elements of greenseeing enlightenment, a sword and wildfire flames in the death scenes of Brandon and Rickard Stark.

Two other greenseer allusions about Beric are hinted at in Edric’s story when he guarded Beric after the Mountain fell on Beric and his detail.

“He had a broken lance sticking out of him, so no one bothered us. When we regrouped, Green Gergen helped pull his lordship back onto a horse.” (aSoS, Arya VIII)

First, we immediately recognize the spear wound of Odin as he hung from Yggrdrasil. George adds a green character into helping the lightning lord back onto a horse – Green Gergen. His name only ever appears in this quote. We never meet him on page. Gergen is a name variation on George. So, the choice of name for this man was purely symbolical and a wink at the author’s deliberate choice in helping Beric back into the game. Basically, George here is telling us, “I as author deliberately chose to resurrect Beric from the dead,” and betraying that he is on team “green”.

Jaime thinks honor is a horse when the Blackfish (aka “Brandon”) asks him whether he knows what honor is. Sandor says a knight is a sword with a horse. And many a reader who researched some Norse mythology realizes that the enlightenment via weirwood tree, aka Yggdrasil, is depicted with imagery of Odin one-eye riding his horse Sleipnir. Yggdrasil literally means Ygg’s steed or Ygg’s horse. Likewise the hanged ride the gallows. Green George pulling Beric onto a horse is a reference to the same.

Beric may have numerous and obvious allusions of a greenseer, but he is only a symbolic greenseer. More, most readers tend to associate him more with Rh’llor and fire magic. Even if Green George put him back on his horse, in-story it was Thoros of Myr who resurrected Beric Dondarrion with a burial ritual called the last kiss.

“I have no magic, child. Only prayers. That first time, his lordship had a hole right through him and blood in his mouth, I knew there was no hope. So when his poor torn chest stopped moving, I gave him the good god’s own kiss to send him on his way. I filled my mouth with fire and breathed the flames inside him, down his throat to lungs and heart and soul. The last kiss it is called, and many a time I saw the old priests bestow it on the Lord’s servants as they died. I had given it a time or two myself, as all priests must. But never before had I felt a dead man shudder as the fire filled him, nor seen his eyes come open. It was not me who raised him, my lady. It was the Lord. R’hllor is not done with him yet. Life is warmth, and warmth is fire, and fire is God’s and God’s alone.” (aSoS, Arya VII)

Jon Snow would say that Beric was kissed by fire. The mix of greenseer symbolism in combination with fireblood, results thus in wildfire.

“Sometimes I think I was born on the bloody grass in that grove of ash, with the taste of fire in my mouth and a hole in my chest. Are you my mother, Thoros?”” (aSoS, Arya VII)

Notice how Beric asks whether Thoros is his mother. Similarly, Bloodraven admits that he once had a mother too, and it was she who named him.

Beric’s blood and body is somehow animated by fire magic. It is this fireblood that Beric uses to set his common sword aflame, and wield a flaming sword. This makes Beric a brand-on.

Unsmiling, Lord Beric laid the edge of his longsword against the palm of his left hand, and drew it slowly down. Blood ran dark from the gash he made, and washed over the steel. And then the sword took fire. (aSoS, Arya VI)

Beric Dondarrion by joelhustak
Beric Dondarrion, by Joel Hustak

A flaming sword is not all that Beric has by his side. He also has a dark sister, Arya, until she is stolen. Not only does Arya have dark hair, she is also referred to as dark heart by the Ghost of High Hill.

Her hair was a lusterless brown, and her face was long and solemn. (aGoT, Arya I)

The dwarf woman studied her with dim red eyes. “I see you,” she whispered. “I see you, wolf child. Blood child. I thought it was the lord who smelled of death . . .” She began to sob, her little body shaking. “You are cruel to come to my hill, cruel. I gorged on grief at Summerhall, I need none of yours. Begone from here, dark heart. Begone!” (aGoT, Arya VIII)

Certain people or occupations are referred to as a sword: a sworn sword, the Sword of the Morning, … In Arya’s case Syrio Forel called her a sword.

It was the third time [Syrio] had called her “boy.” “I’m a girl,” Arya objected.
“Boy, girl,” Syrio Forel said. “You are a sword, that is all.” (aGoT, Arya II)

“I’m not a boy! But Mycah was. He was a butcher’s boy and you killed him. Jory said you cut him near in half, and he never even had a sword.” She could feel them looking at her now, the women and the children and the men who called themselves the knights of the hollow hill. “Who’s this now?” someone asked.
The Hound answered. “Seven hells. The little sister. The brat who tossed Joff’s pretty sword in the river.” (aSoS, Arya VI)

And this dark sister is a ward as well, for she is a hostage whom the Brotherhood without Banners wish to exchange for a ransom and hostages are also called a ward. Notice too that Tormund calls hostages a blood price.

So, with Bloodraven the ward is a magical invisible wall, a spell that prevents the dead and Others from entering, and Dark Sister is an actual sword of Valyrian steel. With Beric we have a visual reference to a greenseer who ends up with a dark sister as a ward, while using his blood to set a sword aflame.

Beric also shares much of the ideals of the original Night’s Watch. We have an allusion to a warded wall by green magic in Arya’s description of Beric’s cave.

The walls were equal parts stone and soil, with huge white roots twisting through them like a thousand slow pale snakes. (aSoS, Arya VI)

The Wall – allegedly raised by Brandon – is part stone and soil, aside from ice, and via Bran we learn it is protected by a magical ward, including a magical door made of weirwood, the Black Gate. So, when we see a wall of equal parts stone and soil with white weirwood roots twisting through them, this is a physcal visualiation that symbolizes a wall with green magic twisting through it.

Beneath the hollow hill, Beric does not just herald Brynden Rivers. He is also most certainly an echo of the ancient past, at the very least showing us the formation of the Night’s Watch, how people became refugees living in secret cities underground. Beric’s story of the formation of the Brotherhood without Banners could be a tale told by the first rangers of the proto Night’s Watch.

“When we left King’s Landing we were men of Winterfell and men of Darry and men of Blackhaven, Mallery men and Wylde men. We were knights and squires and men-at-arms, lords and commoners, bound together only by our purpose.” […] “Six score of us set out to bring the king’s justice to your brother.” […] “Six score brave men and true, led by a fool in a starry cloak.” […] “More than eighty of our company are dead now, but others have taken up the swords that fell from their hands.” When he reached the floor, the outlaws moved aside to let him pass. “With their help, we fight on as best we can, for Robert and the realm.” […] “The king is dead,” the scarecrow knight admitted, “but we are still king’s men, though the royal banner we bore was lost at the Mummer’s Ford when your brother’s butchers fell upon us.” He touched his breast with a fist. “Robert is slain, but his realm remains. And we defend her.”
[…]
“We are brothers here,” Thoros of Myr declared. “Holy brothers, sworn to the realm, to our god, and to each other.”
“The brotherhood without banners.” Tom Sevenstrings plucked a string. (aSoS, Arya VI)

What is the Night’s Watch if not a brotherhood without banners sworn to protect the realms of men?

The Shieldhall was one of the older parts of Castle Black, a long drafty feast hall of dark stone, its oaken rafters black with the smoke of centuries. Back when the Night’s Watch had been much larger, its walls had been hung with rows of brightly colored wooden shields. Then as now, when a knight took the black, tradition decreed that he set aside his former arms and take up the plain black shield of the brotherhood. The shields thus discarded would hang in the Shieldhall. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

An extra hint that this tale about Beric and Brotherhood without Banners is being played in the current time for the benefit of the reader to learn something of the past is the repeated mention of the Mummer’s Ford. A mummery is a (puppet) play or performance, a retelling of events of the past.

So, if Beric has so many Brandon elements associated to him, then why does George not call him just a variation on Brandon? Not to mention the issue that Beric was never a king, nor will he ever be. He is indeed dead now, even if other men pretend to be Beric to confuse the Freys and Lannisters. Not even his ancestors were ever kings. House Dondarrion was founded when a messenger of the Storm King (of Storm’s End) managed to deliver the king’s message, despite being attacked by Dornishmen. The Storm King awarded the messenger with a lordship. Beric remains as loyal as his ancestor to his mission, even after king Robert in whose name he was sent out for has died, even after king Robert’s Hand who gave the order in Robert’s name lost his head. I therefore suspect that his name is partially a wordplay by George that says be rick, or be king. Not so much as Beric himself being royalty, having a crown and starting a dynasty, but how he is the stand-in king by extension as Protector of the Realm.

Protector of the Realm is one of the titles usually bestowed to the King of the Iron Throne. George has hinted that this title is more than symbolic and military in nature. In several cases this title was bestowed to someone else than the king or queen, either a regent or the chief military commander:

  • Lord Rogar Baratheon while he was Hand for young Jaehaerys I,
  • prince Daemon Targaryen for Queen Rhaenyra
  • and prince Aemond Targaryen for incapicitated Aegon II,
  • Leowyn Corbray and Unwin Peake during their regencies for Aegon III,
  • prince Baelor Targaryen for his father Daeron II (the Good),
  • Ned Stark by dying Robert, …

And with Beric, George is showing us that this title of Protector of the Realm might go back as far as the Long Night and the figure around whom a proto Night’s Watch was formed. And perhaps this is how we should come to regard the deeper meaning of the Ricks: Protectors of the Realm.

Beric is nicknamed the lightning lord, for House Dondarrion’s sigil: a lightning bolt. The name Barak in Hebrew means lightning, and in Arabic the blessed. And in Dutch the word for thunder is donder, which we recognize in Dondar-. In mythology storm gods are often associated with the hammer to cause thunder and lightning or thunder bolts to strike. Thunder and lightning were hardly ever separated or regarded as differentiating symbols, since lightning cannot go without thunder, and vice versa. They are both the same weather phenomenon, separated only in time, because sound travels slower than light. In that sense, Beric as lightning lord is merely another reincarnation of the Storm King; you can see his sigil of the lightning bolt before you can hear his thunder-name. And it turns out that our symbolic Storm King fosters a boy of House Dayne.

Index

Edric Dayne
Edric_dayne_by_eluas
Edric Dayne, by Eluas

By Beric’s side, we find his squire Edric Dayne, whose first name makes him one of the Ricks. With Beric as an elder Rick and Edric as a Rick the younger, we see the parallel between Beric and Bloodraven extend to each having apprentices of the same name group: Brynden and Bran, and Beric and Edric. But there are also differences.

  • Brynden and Bran are both greenseers. With Beric and Edric the emphasis seems to be being trained into true knighthood. After all a squire does not just serve a knight or lord by maintaining his armor, but is also getting trained and can be knighted by their mentor.
  • Brynden and Bran reside beneath a beacon hill (the distinct red weirwoods on top of a hill), whereas Beric and Edric reside in an area where the Andals cut the weirwood groves.
  • Beric and Edric are associated to flaming swords as objects, while Brynden and Bran embody flaming swords with their name.

Beric and Edric should be in this mentor relationship like Brynden and Bran, because of a rare trait or ability in comparison to all the other physical knights. And that of course is the idea of wielding Lightbringer to protect the realm. After all, House Dayne possesses a sword that glows with light, namely Dawn.

“And now it begins,” said Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning. He unsheathed Dawn and held it with both hands. The blade was pale as milkglass, alive with light. (aGoT, Eddard X)

Even if Dawn is not the Lightbringer of legend, it certainly is a lightbringer, as much as Beric’s flaming sword is. Though Dawn has a different appearance than Valyrian steel as far as looks go, it shares similar traits when it comes to strength and sharpness.

The Daynes of Starfall are one of the most ancient houses in the Seven Kingdoms, though their fame largely rests on their ancestral sword, called Dawn, and the men who wielded it. Its origins are lost to legend, but it seems likely that the Daynes have carried it for thousands of years. Those who have had the honor of examining it say it looks like no Valyrian steel they know, being pale as milkglass but in all other respects it seems to share the properties of Valyrian blades, being incredibly strong and sharp. (tWoIaF – Dorne: the Andals arrive)

Dawn predates Old Valyria and thus the known Valyrian Steel swords. Hence, we should see proper Valyrian steel in general as the dark sisters of Dawn, for Valyrian steel is a grey so dark it looks almost black.

Most Valyrian steel was a grey so dark it looked almost black, as was true here as well. (aSoS, Tyrion IV)

Though Edric Dayne is not a Sword of the Morning (yet) as Beric’s squire, it does seem that George had the intention for him to become such if he had been able to execute the five year gap. By then Edric would have been ten and seven. It is very uncertain whether Edric Dayne will become the Sword of the Morning without the gap. Nevertheless, as the intention was there, Edric is a valid parallel for a boy being in training to become worthy to be the Sword of the Morning. For Dawn is not an heirloom passed from king to king, or lord to lord. It is not even a possession of the lord of Starfall to be given away or lent out. It belongs to House Dayne in general, and whichever knight or warrior of House Dayne is deemed worthy may carry it.

Though many houses have their heirloom swords, they mostly pass the blades down from lord to lord. Some, such as the Corbrays have done, may lend the blade to a son or brother for his lifetime, only to have it return to the lord. But that is not the way of House Dayne. The wielder of Dawn is always given the title of Sword of the Morning, and only a knight of House Dayne who is deemed worthy can carry it. For this reason, the Swords of the Morning are all famous throughout the Seven Kingdoms. (tWoIaF – Dorne: the Andals arrive)

As much as there are symbolical allusions to greenseeing for Beric, there are symbolic allusions of Bran as wielder of a lightbringer, and Dawn in particular.

“The finest knight I ever saw was Ser Arthur Dayne, who fought with a blade called Dawn, forged from the heart of a fallen star. They called him the Sword of the Morning, and he would have killed me but for Howland Reed.” Father had gotten sad then, and he would say no more. Bran wished he had asked him what he meant. He went to sleep with his head full of knights in gleaming armor, fighting with swords that shone like starfire, but when the dream came he was in the godswood again. (aCoK, Bran III)

There are boys who secretly dream of being a son of Starfall so they might claim that storied sword and its title. (tWoIaF – Dorne: the Andals arrive)

I do not think these allusions of Dawn in the hands of Bran are a foreshadowing that Bran will ever wield or use Dawn, but instead that Brandon the Builder wielded Dawn. Another allusion to this is the sword that Bran takes with him from the crypts, before he journeys to the Wall.

Osha carried her long oaken spear in one hand and the torch in the other. A naked sword hung down her back, one of the last to bear Mikken’s mark. He had forged it for Lord Eddard’s tomb, to keep his ghost at rest. But with Mikken slain and the ironmen guarding the armory, good steel had been hard to resist, even if it meant grave-robbing. Meera had claimed Lord Rickard’s blade, though she complained that it was too heavy. Brandon took his namesake’s, the sword made for the uncle he had never known. He knew he would not be much use in a fight, but even so the blade felt good in his hand. (aCoK, Bran VII)

Bran is said to have taken the sword of his uncle, Brandon, while he recognizes he would not be much of a physical fighter with it. And of course Brandon has flaming sword as meaning.

Not using a sword in a fight is also exemplified in Edric Dayne’s story on how he protected the mortally wounded Beric at the Mummer’s Ford.

“I was at the Mummer’s Ford. When Lord Beric fell into the river, I dragged him up onto the bank so he wouldn’t drown and stood over him with my sword. I never had to fight, though. […] (aSoS, Arya VII)

And of course this ties back to a protective nature and purpose.

Just like the Starks once were Kings of Winter and Kings in the North, the Daynes used to be Kings of the Torrentine. They were relegated to vassals and lords by Nymeria of the Rhoynar.

At the mouth of the Torrentine, House Dayne raised its castle on an island where that roaring, tumultuous river broadens to meet the sea. Legend says the first Dayne was led to the site when he followed the track of a falling star and there found a stone of magical powers. His descendants ruled over the western mountains for centuries thereafter as Kings of the Torrentine and Lords of Starfall. (tWoIaF – Dorne: the Kingdoms of the First Men)

The name of the river Torrentine is pretty much on the nose: it means torrential. And the World Book describes it as roaring and tumultuous. House Dayne’s island Starfall is at the “mouth” of this “roaring” river. In other words, George is describing this river and the location as a noisy beast. The animals that roar are big cats (such as lions), bears, seals, deer, bovids (such as buffalo), elephants and several New World primates (simians). Since the Lannister words are “Here me roar” the beast comparison for the Torrentine is most likely pointing to a lion. The lion is not solely connected to House Lannister of Casterly Rock (that resembles a lion’s head) though. The animal is also featured in the legend about Azor Ahai. During the Long Night, Azor Ahai attempts to forge a magical blade. He heats and folds it over and over (like Valyrian steel) for thirty days and then tempers it by plunging it in water during the Long Night, but it bursts. Next, he uses a lion’s heart to temper it.

“The second time it took him fifty days and fifty nights, and this sword seemed even finer than the first. Azor Ahai captured a lion, to temper the blade by plunging it through the beast’s red heart, but once more the steel shattered and split. (aCoK, Davos I)

This too fails, and the sword shatters and splits. And yes, take note that the Valyrian steel sword of House . Stark Ice was split in two new swords by the lead lion of house Lannister, Tywin. We also witnessed the first sword being destroyed by solid water in the prologue chapter of aGoT: Waymar Royce’s sword has the dark appearance of Valyrian steel, but was actually common steel.

A scream echoed through the forest night, and the longsword shivered into a hundred brittle pieces, the shards scattering like a rain of needles. (aGoT, Prologue)

I will come back to this when we examine the swords much closer in The Bloody Swords. But for now we can take note that the Torrentine is both water and a roaring lion. And then there is the story about Ashara Dayne falling from the Palestone Sword of Starfall into the sea.

“My father was Ser Arthur’s elder brother. Lady Ashara was my aunt. I never knew her, though. She threw herself into the sea from atop the Palestone Sword before I was born.” (aSoS, Arya VIII)

The Palestone Sword is a tower of Starfall, but is named a sword, and quite obviously a descriptive name for Dawn. Ashara did this after Ned Stark brought Dawn back to Starfall, since the Sword of the Morning – Arthur Dayne – had died in the confrontation at the Tower of Joy.  It is as if Ashara Dayne sacrificed herself upon Azor Ahai’s third and successful attempt to forge Lightbringer.

“A hundred days and a hundred nights he labored on the third blade, and as it glowed white-hot in the sacred fires, he summoned his wife. ‘Nissa Nissa,’ he said to her, for that was her name, ‘bare your breast, and know that I love you best of all that is in this world.’ She did this thing, why I cannot say, and Azor Ahai thrust the smoking sword through her living heart. It is said that her cry of anguish and ecstasy left a crack across the face of the moon, but her blood and her soul and her strength and her courage all went into the steel. Such is the tale of the forging of Lightbringer, the Red Sword of Heroes. (aCoK, Davos I)

And yes, Ashara Dayne “sacrificing” herself from atop the Palestone Sword after the Torrentine being described as a roaring lion, pinpoints Starfall as the location where Lightbringer was forged, and thus one of the many hints that Dawn = the Lightbringer.

Another ironic clue in Davos’ chapter is that he thinks

A true sword of fire, now, that would be a wonder to behold. Yet at such a cost . . . When he thought of Nissa Nissa, it was his own Marya he pictured, a good-natured plump woman with sagging breasts and a kindly smile, the best woman in the world. He tried to picture himself driving a sword through her, and shuddered. I am not made of the stuff of heroes, he decided. If that was the price of a magic sword, it was more than he cared to pay. (aCoK, Davos I)

And yet, one of the historical Swords of the Morning was called Davos Dayne, and he wed Princess Nymeria of the Rhoynar.

Edric Dayne is not the sole Edric in the books and histories. There are three Edric Starks: Edrick “Snowbeard”, Edric Stark (grandson of Alaric Stark), and Edric Stark (third son of Cregan Stark). And then of course we have Edric Storm. It is not my intention here to delve into every Edric, but I hope to incorporate them in the next essays about Brandon the Builder, either for the swords or his bloodline, depending on their relevance. I just want you to take note that the Edrics appear in relation to just three houses: Stark, Dayne and Durrandon descendants.

There are also several Erichs, who are either kings of House Durrandon or Ironborn. Arrec is another name featured with the Durrandons. And this leads us to Arryk and Erryk. This pair of twins appears twice. First for House Cargyll, as the twin kingsguard brothers on opposing sides during the Dance of Dragons. They kill one another at Dragonstone when Aegon II sent Arryk to assassinate Rhaenyra  as vengeance for Blood and Cheese. Aegon II had hoped that Arryk could pretend to be Erryk, since the twins were indistinguishable, but Erryk comes upon Arryk at Dragonstone. Though the duel between the twin brothers was witnessed by Rhaenyra, Daemon and others, nobody dared to intervene: they did not know which of the two was Erryk, supporter of Rhaenyra. George explained in 1999 that the twins are based on the Arthurian story from Mallory about the brothers Balin and Balan, with Balin being the Knight with the Two Swords. But George adapted and altered it so that the brothers know one another in their final duel, even though onlookers cannot separate the two. Notice that kingsguard are referenced as White Swords, and thus are echoes of Swords of the Morning. George reuses the names Arryk and Erryk for the twin guards of Lady Olenna Tyrell. She too cannot tell one from the other and refers to them as Left and Right. This pair embody greenseeing as their livery is green with gold.

The underlying point and significance is that whichever Edric or Erich or Aric you look at, no matter which side or house they pop up, they are all an aspect or reflection of the same archetype or legendary figure, or two sides of the same coin: the white sword and the greenseer aspect. 

Index

Edric Storm

Robert Baratheon has many bastards, but Edric Storm was raised at Storm’s End, which is a castle and location linked to Brandon the Builder. More precisely, in the legend Brandon was still a boy and not yet known as the Builder.

A seventh castle he raised, most massive of all. Some said the children of the forest helped him build it, shaping the stones with magic; others claimed that a small boy told him what he must do, a boy who would grow to be Bran the Builder. No matter how the tale was told, the end was the same. Though the angry gods threw storm after storm against it, the seventh castle stood defiant, and Durran Godsgrief and fair Elenei dwelt there together until the end of their days. (aCoK, Catelyn III)

Even if Brandon the Builder never really advized Durran Godsgrief on how to build a castle that could withstand storms, George tied Brandon to Storm’s End with that legend. So, if apart from House Dayne and House Stark, the Rick-name Edric appears at Storm’s End, we should pay attention to it.

Edric Storm is one of the few bastards of Robert who was officially acknowledged to be his son. In Edric’s case this was because his mother was a noblewoman, Delena Florent. This makes Edric Storm a Great Bastard (like Bloodraven). He becomes a central plot character for Stannis’ arc both in aCoK and aSoS. Initially he is to serve as potential evidence that Cersei’s children are not Robert’s: Edric looks the spitting image of Robert… almost.

“There’s proof of a sort at Storm’s End. Robert’s bastard. The one he fathered on my wedding night, in the very bed they’d made up for me and my bride. Delena was a Florent, and a maiden when he took her, so Robert acknowledged the babe. Edric Storm, they call him. He is said to be the very image of my brother. If men were to see him, and then look again at Joffrey and Tommen, they could not help but wonder, I would think.” (aCoK, Davos I)

He does however has his mother’s ears, a Florent trait.

The boy drew himself up tall. “I am Edric Storm,” he announced. “King Robert’s son.”
“Of course you are.” Davos had known that almost at once. The lad had the prominent ears of a Florent, but the hair, the eyes, the jaw, the cheekbones, those were all Baratheon. (aSoS, Davos II)

What we should take away from this is that a son inherits something of his mother which is typical for her family:

  • Jon Snow has the Stark look from Lyanna.
  • Bloodraven is a magician, greenseer and skinchanger via his Blackwood mother.

Later, Edric Storm is featured as a potential sacrifice for Melisandre’s desire to “wake a stone dragon” at Dragonstone.

“I am a small man,” Davos admitted, “so tell me why you need this boy Edric Storm to wake your great stone dragon, my lady.” He was determined to say the boy’s name as often as he could.
“Only death can pay for life, my lord. A great gift requires a great sacrifice.” (aSoS, Davos V)

So, we can generally describe Edric as a Great Bastard who resembles his father, a king, but also has a typical trait from his mother’s family. Since House Florent claims descent from Garth Greenhand – via his daughter Florys the Fox – and his father is the grandson of Rhaelle Targaryen, Edric Storm has wildfire blood.

If Brandon the Builder was a greenseer because of his paternal ties to Garth the Green, then the fire element that made him a wildfire greenseer must have come from his mother. There seem to be only two potential houses in existence during the Age of Heroes in Westeros that could be candidates to pass on a fiery type of blood: House Hightower and House Dayne. And only one of these houses has an ancient pale sword: House Dayne.

George also chose to put Edric Storm behind the warded walls of Storm’s End, rather than Renly. Davos has to smuggle Mel into the cave beneath the castle, so she could birth her shadow assassin behind the ward, in order to kill the castellan Courtney Penrose and acquire Edric Storm. It is through this plot that we first learn of some type of magic that can be cast on walls to prevent shadows (and wights) from passing. I elaborate on George’s possible motivation of Mel initially sending a shadow assassin on Renly in open field, and afterwards behind a ward in What Use is a Night’s King of the Night’s King essay series.

The big clue to Brandon the Builder (amidst these tangential commonalities with Brynden Rivers) is how Stannis refuses to refer to Edric by his name.

“Devan? A good boy. He has much of you in him. It is Robert’s bastard who is sick, the boy we took at Storm’s End.”
Edric Storm. “I spoke with him in Aegon’s Garden.”
“As she wished. As she saw.” Stannis sighed. “Did the boy charm you?” He has that gift. He got it from his father, with the blood. He knows he is a king’s son, but chooses to forget that he is bastard-born. And he worships Robert, as Renly did when he was young. My royal brother played the fond father on his visits to Storm’s End, and there were gifts . . . swords and ponies and fur-trimmed cloaks. The eunuch’s work, every one. The boy would write the Red Keep full of thanks, and Robert would laugh and ask Varys what he’d sent this year. Renly was no better. He left the boy‘s upbringing to castellans and maesters, and every one fell victim to his charm. Penrose chose to die rather than give him up.” The king ground his teeth together. “It still angers me. How could he think I would hurt the boy? I chose Robert, did I not? When that hard day came. I chose blood over honor.”
He does not use the boy’s name. That made Davos very uneasy. “I hope young Edric will recover soon.”
Stannis waved a hand, dismissing his concern. “It is a chill, no more. He coughs, he shivers, he has a fever. Maester Pylos will soon set him right. By himself the boy is nought, you understand, but in his veins flows my brother’s blood. There is power in a king’s blood, she says.” (aSoS, Davos IV)

… and brigand’s blood, Stannis! Anyway, it is always “the boy”. According to legend, Brandon the Builder was also only “the boy” when he was involved in helping Durran Godsgrief. And did you pick up the trio of sword, a boy’s horse and fur-trimmed cloak (a sable cloak?). Or that “the boy” is shivering and cold?

Edric Storm starts to sound like another Edric who is an echo or allusion of Brandon the Builder. And if so, then the debate between Stannis and Davos about sacrificing Edric becomes even more poignant and layered.

“You are making me angry, Davos. I will hear no more of this bastard boy.”
“His name is Edric Storm, sire.”
“I know his name. Was there ever a name so apt? It proclaims his bastardy, his high birth, and the turmoil he brings with him. Edric Storm. There, I have said it. Are you satisfied, my lord Hand?”
“Edric—” he started.
“—is one boy! He may be the best boy who ever drew breath and it would not matter. My duty is to the realm.” (aSoS, Davos V)

But apparently one boy who allegedly was “at” Storm’s End” once mattered a great deal and made a crucial difference at Storm’s End and the Wall. At present a boy called Bran matters, and a boy Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch matters too. Edric Dayne already made a difference when he prevented Beric from drowning, for the Brotherhood without Banners made a difference for the smallfolk. In his indirect own way, Edric Storm mattered. It redirected Davos’ focus to find something to prove to Stannis where he could earn a kingdom – the cry for help by the Night’s Watch. Is it any coincidence then that George has Stannis talk about the Long Night, Lightbringer and a “dragon” turning the battle, right after dismissing one boy’s importance?

His hand swept across the Painted Table. “How many boys dwell in Westeros? How many girls? How many men, how many women? The darkness will devour them all, she says. The night that never ends. She talks of prophecies . . . a hero reborn in the sea, living dragons hatched from dead stone . . . she speaks of signs and swears they point to me. I never asked for this, no more than I asked to be king. Yet dare I disregard her?” He ground his teeth. “We do not choose our destinies. Yet we must . . . we must do our duty, no? Great or small, we must do our duty. Melisandre swears that she has seen me in her flames, facing the dark with Lightbringer raised on high. Lightbringer!” Stannis gave a derisive snort. “It glimmers prettily, I’ll grant you, but on the Blackwater this magic sword served me no better than any common steel. A dragon would have turned that battle. Aegon once stood here as I do, looking down on this table. Do you think we would name him Aegon the Conqueror today if he had not had dragons?” (aSoS, Davos V)

Or the irony of Davos wondering whether Edric Storm is to play the Nissa Nissa part in this context.

This fostering of acknowledged bastards at Storm’s End is not new either. Fire and Blood includes a tale of a “biography” written by Coryanne Wylde of House Rain of the Stormlands: A Caution for Young Girls. Fire and Blood paints this cautionary tale for a large part as sordid fiction that no sepon or maester at the Citadel would touch to copy. Instead the copyists were fallen septons, failed students of the Citadel and – worst of all – mummers. In the eyes of the Citadel, mummers are as bad as singers with the truth (except that the singers of the earth sing the True Tongue). By framing this tale of Coryanne Wylde in this way, George is signaling the reader that it has an equivalency to legends and myths of heroes of the Age of Heroes. In other words, it sheds a light on the past, on a hero of the Age of Heroes, but in a distorted way, since mummers are not singers. I will restrict myself to what has been verified by the Citadel and is relevant to Edric Storm.

When she was thirteen, Coryanne Wylde, had an affair with a stable boy, resulting in a pregnancy. Coryanne was locked away until she delivered her baby son. That son was sent to Storm’s End and was fostered there by a steward and his childless wife. And in her case only very few people beyond the walls of Rain House knew of it. (see Fire and Blood, a Surfeit of Rulers).

Rainwood_by paolo puggioni
Rainwood, by Paolo Puggioni

Wylde is another form of spelling wyld or wild, meaning a wild person or (hunting) game. There is even a residential area of Birmingham called Wylde Green. House Wylde of Rain House is situated in Rainwood. This forest was once connected to the Kingswood as a primeval forest where the children of the forest lived. Arianne ends up sheltering in a Rainwood cave with evidence of it once having been inhabitated by the children in the second chapter of her POV for tWoW. And the World Book describes the rainwood during the Dawn Age prior to the pact as follows.

The wet wild of the rainwood was a favored haunt of the children of the forest, the tales tell us, and there were giants in the hills that rose wild in the shadow of the Red Mountains, and amongst the defiles and ridges of the stony peninsula that came to be called Massey’s Hook. Although the giants were a shy folk, and ever hostile to man, it is written that in the beginning, the children of the forest welcomed the newcomers to Westeros, in the belief that there was land enough for all. (tWoIaF – The Stormlands: The Coming of the First Men)

But First Men began to harvest timber and hardwoods from the rainwood and ran into conflict with the children of the forest, until the Pact created a truce between the two species. By then though the numbers of the children in the forest at the rainwood were already greatly diminished. And long after the Pact, during the Age of Heroes, Durran Godsgrief begins to build his kingdom and castle at Storm’s End and conquers the rainwood from the children of the forest.

The Godsgrief himself was first to claim the rainwood, that wet wilderness that had hitherto belonged only to the children of the forest. His son Durran the Devout returned to the children most of what his father had seized, but a century later Durran Bronze-Axe took it back again, this time for good and all. (tWoIaF – The Stormlands: House Durrandon)

Storm’s End also fostered the bastards of Ser Lucamore “the Lusty” Strong (a “white sword”) by his third illigitemate wife.

The amiable and well loved Ser Lucamore Strong of the Kingsguard, a favorite of the smallfolk, was found to have been secretly wed, despite the vows that he had sworn as a White Sword. Worse, he had taken not one but three wives, keeping each woman ignorant of the other two and fathering no fewer than sixteen children on the three of them.  […] The third wife, whose children were the youngest (one still on her breast), would be sent down to Storm’s End, where Garon Baratheon and young Lord Boremund would see to their upbringing. (Fire and Blood – The Long Reign, Jaehaerys and Alysanne: Policy, Progeny and Pain)

So, when Storm’s End is said to foster a wylde child from the rainwood, it alludes to fostering a child of the forest, or at least a greenseer boy who was trained amongst the children of the rainwood. Combine this with the white sword and kinghood, and this seems to point to a greenseeing bastard born from House Dayne, who were Kings of the Torrentine and in possession of a palestone sword, fostered at Storm’s End. That boy would later be known as Brandon the Builder. This then would be the explanation for Brandon being able to wield Dawn.

Many other theorists have proposed that the original sword Ice was actually Dawn and that Dawn was Lightbringer, but they barely touched on the explanation how Brandon the Builder could have wielded it. At best they propose he stole or borrowed it, without considering the hints we have that Brandon may have been born to a daughter of House Dayne. Storm’s End and fostering is one of the clues to this. I will delve in depth to the numerous hints for this in Wildfire and Blood.

Index

Eldric Shadowchaser

If Edrics are actually echoes of Brandon, then why do they have such a different name? We might find our answer in the names of the heroes who allegedly wielded Lightbringer according to Essosi claims. There is one name that stands out, because it is a Rick-name: Eldric Shadowchaser.

How long the darkness endured no man can say, but all agree that it was only when a great warrior—known variously as Hyrkoon the Hero, Azor Ahai, Yin Tar, Neferion, and Eldric Shadowchaser—arose to give courage to the race of men and lead the virtuous into battle with his blazing sword Lightbringer that the darkness was put to rout, and light and love returned once more to the world. (tWoIaF – The Bones and Beyond: Yi Ti)

Eldric is a variation of the last hero or/and Azor Ahai.

Most of the focus usually goes to Azor Ahai. That is after all the name that appears in the main series, with a legend on how he forged Lightbringer and how some monster burst into flame after being thrust with the blade. The other four names are dropped in the World Book with just a general claim in connection to wielding Lightbringer and ending the Long Night. If these other names are ever debated, it is usually in relation to whether these are different local Essosi heroes who ended up conflated with each other, or there is only one hero and different regions try to claim this hero was theirs (the monomyth). Personally I think it is a bit of both.

  • Some areas or cultures tried to claim their ancestor to be this legendary hero they heard about.
  • Other areas and people did indeed have local tales of efforts being undertaken to end the Long Night, and erronously attributed the success to these tales, such as the Rhoynar legend.
  • Some legends and associated names are about one and the same person.
  • And then there are Essosi legendary heroes that some readers argue are part of the monomyth, even though there is nothing in the local tales about that hero to support this: Huzhor Amai of the Silver Sea or Hugor Hill of the Andals.
Hyrkoon_by Jordo Gonzalez
Hyrkoon the Hero with Lightbringer in hand, leading the virtuous into battle, by Jordi Gonzalez

David Lightbringer and History of Westeros argued that several of these names can be directly tied to an ethnic group or area in Essos east of the Bone Mountains. It is as if these groups are trying to claim “our hero is the one”:

  • Hyrkoon the Hero– The Patriarchs of Hyrkoon claim descent from this Hyrkoon.
  • Yin Tar – Yin is the port city of Yi Ti. Several dynasties of the Great Empire of Yi Ti have ruled from Yin: grey, indigo, pearl-white and azure (presently).
  • Neferion – Nefer is another port city, the most northern port east of the Bone Mountains, and the capital of N’ghai, the last remnant of their former empire. It is shrouded by fog, nine tenth of it is underground and its nickname is Secret City.

We can be sure that none of these three were the actual hero in question. At best, they were either local heroes at the time. At worst, there was no hero whatsoever, and they appropriated it because some of the details of the legend surrounding the actual hero reminded them of their own world. None of these are really “names” even. Neferion basically means Nefer-like for example.

There certainly is a nationalistic incentive to proclaim the hero to have been one of their own, when we consider that the remnants of the Patriarchy of Hyrkoon, the Jogos Nhai and Yi Ti hate each other’s guts.

Even though these three are not actual names and very unlikely to have been Azor Ahai, let alone the last hero, they are not completely irrelevant. What does Quaithe cryptically say to Dany in Qarth if she wants to learn secrets and become knowledgeable?

“To go north, you must journey south, to reach the west you must go east. To go forward you must go back and to touch the light you must pass beneath the shadow.” (aCoK, Daenerys III)

Beneath the shadow is a reference for Asshai. On the surface, it seems as if Quaithe is advizing Dany to journey to Asshai. Certainly Dany’s massive journey as far as Dothrak in the first book and Jorah advizing Dany to go to Asshai several times in both aGoT and aCoK supports the idea that George may have intended for Dany to journey to Asshai, initially. Quaithe’s cryptic advice stems from aCoK and was said in Qarth, very near the Bone Mountains. In Qarth, east can only mean the lands beyond the Bones. It implies that in order to learn about the past of the West, Dany had to go east of the Bones and suggests that George intended for Dany to hear stories about Hyrkoon, Neferion, Yin Tar and eventually Azor Ahai along the way.

But in 2011 in a Q& A with Tad Williams, George answered the question whether we “will ever see Asshai or the Shadow” as follows:

You may hear about it and you may get flashback scenes from characters who have been there and you can puzzle it out on the internet. But I don’t know. I may return to write other stories set in this world. I want you to return to Osten Ard by the way. (SSM, Redwood City Signing, July 27 2011)

In other words, after finishing aDwD, George had no intention (anymore) for Dany to journey as far as Asshai. It appears to me that having to drop te five year gap forced George to shelve any hope to have Dany learn of the Azor Ahai related legends east of the Bones. But he also felt he needed to preserve consistency with Quaithe’s aCoK advice, at the very least to the reader. And thus the information the readers have in the World Book about the lands and stories East of the Bone Mountains would be the info GRRM intended for us to learn via Dany’s scrapped journey to Asshai. This supports the fantasy archeologists in their efforts and is certainly something for naysayers to consider.

Finally there is the name reference of the mountain range, the Bone Mountains and the geographical reference in the World Book to this part of the world, Beyond the Bones. George invites us to look at places where we find “bones” and to see beyond the mummer show of scary bones: crypts, burrows, graveyards, greenseer caves.

If these three ethnic groups beyond the Bones declared the legendary hero to be theirs based on commonalities of the actual hero, each of them therefore would reflect an aspect of the actual hero from the West. In other words, we can conclude that

  • He founded a new family or House after the Long Night ended.
  • He is associated with the colors or stones of grey, indigo and pearl-white.
  • and this hero and the people with him survived underground, in a secret city.

Brandon the Builder is definitely a man associated as a founder of a new house, namely House Stark, after the Long Night. So, we can see how Hyrkoon and Brandon the Builder have something in common.

The same is true for Nefer and Winterfell. I have already pointed out the visual hints and the etymology of Winterfell and its crypts being an underground cave system, not unlike Bloodraven’s cave, beneath a weirwood serving as a beacon in a white winter world – a secret city. Now here is the description of Nefer of the World Book, the city we can safely assume claims Neferion is Azor Ahai.

Only one port of note is to be found on the Shivering Sea east of the Bones: Nefer, chief city of the kingdom of N’ghai, hemmed in by towering chalk cliffs and perpetually shrouded in fog. When seen from the harbor, Nefer appears to be no more than a small town, but it is said that nine-tenths of the city is beneath the ground. For that reason, travelers call Nefer the Secret City. (tWoIaF – Beyond the Free Cities: East of Ib)

George uses fog or mist as a visual play on the phrase “mists of time”. Not just here, but for example when Theon walks Jeyne Poole to her groom Ramsay in the godswood at Winterfell and the fog clears up to show a new tableau with all of Luwin’s ravens in the weirwood tree – their home from before there was ever a castle at Winterfell, let alone a maester’s rookery.

Then the mists parted, like the curtain opening at a mummer show to reveal some new tableau. The heart tree appeared in front of them, its bony limbs spread wide. Fallen leaves lay about the wide white trunk in drifts of red and brown. The ravens were the thickest here, muttering to one another in the murderers’ secret tongue. (aDwD, The Prince of Wnterfell)

Nefer thus reveals us something about the past. And when a wielder of lightbringer is claimed to be Neferion, it basically means the actual hero lived or was from a secret city. Winterfell could have been that secret city.

So, if the Azor Ahai (azure) legend refers to the last hero and that last hero was Brandon the Builder, then we should find a clue for the Starks in relation to grey, indigo and pearl-white dynasties of Yin, where Yin Tar would have been from. The Stark sigil is grey, and via Arya Stark (the dark sister) we also have allusions to indigo and pearl-white. Before she arrives at Beric’s hollow hill, Arya stays a night at Acorn Hall. Lady Ravella Smallwood, née Ravella Swan, has Arya take a bath and gives her an acorn dress of the daughter she sent to a motherhouse for safe keeping.

Arya promptly found herself marched upstairs, forced into a tub, and doused with scalding hot water. Lady Smallwood’s maidservants scrubbed her so hard it felt like they were flaying her themselves. They even dumped in some stinky-sweet stuff that smelled like flowers. And afterward, they insisted she dress herself in girl’s things, brown woolen stockings and a light linen shift, and over that a light green gown with acorns embroidered all over the bodice in brown thread, and more acorns bordering the hem. (aSoS, Arya IV)

Arya compares herself to an oak tree because of it.

“I look like an oak tree, with all these stupid acorns.”
“Nice, though. A nice oak tree.” He stepped closer, and sniffed at her. “You even smell nice for a change.” (aSoS, Arya IV)

Gendry’s comment provokes Arya into wrestling him and the dress gets torn. Arya gets forced into a second bath and put in yet another dress: a lilac dress with pearls.

It was even worse than before; Lady Smallwood insisted that Arya take another bath, and cut and comb her hair besides; the dress she put her in this time was sort of lilac-colored, and decorated with little baby pearls. The only good thing about it was that it was so delicate that no one could expect her to ride in it. (aSoS, Arya IV)

It is as if every bath and scrubbing represents a going back in time to reveal what lies beneath the wolf’s skin. The first scrub shows Arya’s origin to that of a greenseer – the acorn that becomes a tree. But before the greenseer was an acorn, he was a baby pearl to a lilac eye-colored and delicate lady. So, in Arya, the dark sister, we have the grey, the purple and pearl mentioned for the dynasties of Yi Ti, where they claim the hero with a flaming sword who ended the Long Night is Yin Tar.

That Arya’s dresses truly are about an ancestral boy, rather than an ancestral girl, is made clear by the fact that in the morning, Ravella Smallwood gifts Arya her boy’s iron studded leather jerkin.

So the next morning as they broke their fast, Lady Smallwood gave her breeches, belt, and tunic to wear, and a brown doeskin jerkin dotted with iron studs. “They were my son’s things,” she said. “He died when he was seven.” (aSoS, Arya IV)

Notice too that the other dinasty of Yi Ti that I did not mention yet is the azure one. Azure is a type of blue, and Arya is a dark sister with blue eyes, but also brings Azor Ahai to mind. So, the colors of the dynasties that ruled Yi Ti from Yin link the Grey Starks to Azor Ahai.

Now how can I be certain that we should tie Arya’s scenes of the dresses at Acorn Hall to a hero with a flaming sword? Because Arya’s acorn dress scene with Gendry is steeped into talk about flaming swords. Gendry explains Thoros’ trick to set his sword aflame to Arya – he doused his sword with wildfire. And this scene occurs in a forge!

“[Thoros] won’t remember me, but he used to come to our forge.” The Smallwood forge had not been used in some time, though the smith had hung his tools neatly on the wall. Gendry lit a candle and set it on the anvil while he took down a pair of tongs. “My master always scolded him about his flaming swords. It was no way to treat good steel, he’d say, but this Thoros never used good steel. He’d just dip some cheap sword in wildfire and set it alight. It was only an alchemist’s trick, my master said, but it scared the horses and some of the greener knights.” (aSoS, Arya IV)

Though Azor Ahai is treated as a name, personally I believe it to be a title or descriptor, just like last hero, corpse queen or the prince that was promised. Readers write those with capitals, though none are capitalized in the books. Within the series no translation for Azor Ahai has been given. I have checked up on potential real world etymological connections, with most failing at having credible sources. Even the claim on Wikipedia about the meaning for Azor or Azur in relation to a settlement in Israel are dubious. They claim it means mighty or heroic and reference the town’s website, but that website states it means defence belt.

The sole potential inspiration that seems credible is the Gospel of Mathew that mentions Azor as an ancestor of Jesus. Biblical scholars speculate that Azor may be a shortened name of Azariah. Now pronounce Azor Ahai and then Azariah. That is a match, no? In Hebrew, the name Azariah means Yah has helped, or God’s helper or God’s help. This explanation has been floating around the internet for a while, but without a proper source or explanation, leaving out or not knowing that Azor is short for Azariah. That meaning does seem to fit the notion of a title or descriptor given by religious worshippers. It is comparable to the freed slaves of Yunkai calling Dany Mhysa (mother).

The oldest verified source of the legend of Azor Ahai is Asshai. As Azor Ahai sounds quite exotic in comparison to Westeros, we assume Azor Ahai was an Essosi hero (or villain). When we apply some historical source reasoning on this, however, we can quickly see this is not necessarily the case.

It is also written that there are annals in Asshai of such a darkness, and of a hero who fought against it with a red sword. His deeds are said to have been performed before the rise of Valyria, in the earliest age when Old Ghis was first forming its empire. This legend has spread west from Asshai, and the followers of R’hllor claim that this hero was named Azor Ahai, and prophesy his return.

The deeds of the hero with the red sword were written in the Asshai annals, which are year to year recordings. It is not directly stated that Asshai scholars knew his name or even named him. Instead it is pointed out that R’hllorists refer to this anonymous hero as Azor Ahai. And then there is this quite important realization to keep in the back of our minds – Asshai never made any claims on where God’s helper was born or where he defeated the Long Night. Asshai is the oldest still surviving city and port of whole Planetos by all appearances. For all we know Asshai learned of this hero from trading ships or pirates that sailed from Oldtown to Asshai. But as they were a trading center for the rest of Planetos and the civilisation with the eldest written records, the legend got spread around to other sailors, wizards,  mages, shadowbinders and fire worshipping priests via Asshai.

There is even another way how Asshai could have recorded deeds in their annals 8000 years ago. Preserving knowledge and events in annals suggests that Asshai had accurate means to acquire information of events in the world remotely while they were occurring. In Asshai’s case that might have been glass candles. Asshai exports dragonglass and glass candles are made from dragonglass or obsidian. Readers assume that glass candles are a Valyrian invention, because the glass candles in the Citadel came from Valyria, and because Marwyn (who has been at Asshai) refers to it as Valyrian sorcery. And yet, the technology to use dragonglass as a remote viewer tool may predate Valyria as much as dragons may have. If you believe that the Great Empire of the Dawn and/or Asshai had dragon and fire and blood magic knowledge before the Valyrians, then we should include glass candle magic and technology as theirs as well. If so, then Asshai was able to monitor events across Planetos, including Westeros, during the Long Night.

An indication to this is the fact that Quaithe, a shadowbinder of Asshai, uses a glass candle most prominently to communicate with Dany. Now, has Quaithe ever used a name to identify someone? Aside from the perfumed senechal as translation of the cog Selaesori Qhoran, Quaithe uses only symbolic descriptors. One of the main reasons might be that a glass candle user does not always know or understand the language of the people they watch. If you do not know a certain language, it is hard to distinguish names from other words in that language. This might explain why Quaithe uses descriptors so much: imagery is a universal language. So, an Asshai recordkeeper was unlikely to have recorded an actual name in the annals.

Asshai using glass candle magic for remote viewing might explain the discrepancy of a hero with a bright red sword, instead of a pale white sword, if Lightbringer = Dawn. If you view a white light through some type of screen that is colored, say red dark obsidian, then that light would appear as a bright red, and not as white.

In any case, the legend of Azor Ahai and much later prophecy (5000 years ago) may have spread from Asshai in Essos, but the heroes recorded in their annals could have been men plowing through the snows of northern Westeros, and either the story sailed as far as Asshai or was witnessed via glass candle magic.

Eldric Shadowchaser does not fit any of the other four. Even if the name pops up in Essos and was jotted down by Lomas Longstrider as he traveled beyond the Bone Mountains, it does not contain a reference to an area from either side of that mountain range in Essos. And the World Book gives no Essosi source for it. It sounding so very Westerosi like seems to hint that this Eldric Shadowchaser was a Westerosi whose tale traveled as far as Essos, east of the Bone Mountains, but without this name being remembered in Westeros itself.

Is it a name though? Shadowchaser is a good descriptor that seems to paint a picture of a hero hunting Others with Lightbringer. When George uses the name Eldric, most readers agree he may be referencing Michael Moorcock’s Elric of Melniboné. When we search for other historical characters in Westeros being called Eldric, however, we come up with only one aside from this Shadowchaser – Eldric Arryn, a potential heir to Lady Jeyne Arryn during the reign of Aegon III. That is odd. We do have an Elric Stark who was imprisoned by his cousin Lord Cregan Stark, when Elric’s father (who used to be regent) was reluctant to hand over power to Cregan Stark when he came off age.

Now, say Eldric out loud. If you do, it would sound like elder Rick, meaning the elder king or old king. Or as I already suggested with the title for a king: the elder protector of the realm. Once again, Eldric Shadowchaser may have been a misunderstood descriptor rather than an actual name. Another possibility may have been that he was actually just called Rick, having a boy Rick by his side that he mentored, and that in Westeros they initially distinguished the two as the Elder Rick and the Young Rick, as I already did for both Brynden with Bran and Beric with Edric Dayne.

Would George do such a thing as conflating elder Rick into Eldric? Well, he likely would, when you consider that in our own name history, Ned comes from the conflation of the affectionate “mine Ed” which was reinterpreted as “my Ned”. Certainly if foreigners heard sailors speak of Elder Rick, it would have sounded like one name to them and Essosis may have conflated it into Eldric. The same idea works, if the name was recorded into the annals of Asshai via glass candle remote viewing.

What should be clear by now is that all the prior Ricks (from Beric to Edric and Erryk) that I mentioned, can be prominently associated to either Dawn, a palestone sword that could emenate light, or a flaming sword which we think of as Lightbringer. So, of the five names associated to the legendary hero who forged Lightbringer, Elder Rick (Eldric) seems to be the closest to the actual name of either the forger or wielder of Lightbringer during the Long Night.

Index

Rickon Stark
Rickon_Stark_by_aniaem
Art Parkinson as Rickon Stark in Game of Thrones, Small repaint

Young and wild Rickon Star is featured in person in but two books. As he is a toddler still, he is easily overlooked in importance in comparison to his siblings, even though he was set up in aDwD to be a motivation for political players such as Lord Manderly to strongarm Davos into finding him at Skagos and smuggle him back to White Harbor. His name mainly points out that he is a Rick, but he also has the same suffix as Brandon. If Brand-On means “flaming sword on”, then Rick-On could be seen to mean “crown on” or “protection on”.

I already mentioned a crypt scene in relation to Brandon Stark being kissed by fire from Luwin’s torch as Rickon’s wolf Shaggydog attacks him. This is a scene wheremost readers’s hairs rise with sensations of foreshadowing regarding Rickon: the toddler and his wolf are aggressive, Shaggydog fights with Summer, and we even get a mention of twenty feet tall shadows. It all comes across as ominous.

I have come to the conclusion that this is not a foreshadowing scene at all, but should be regarded as a revealing scene of the past. I have already cited several reasons for this in the Brandon Stark section where I cover it:

  • Luwin asks Bran to recall his histories and tell them to Osha
  • The torch is trailing back and thus shedding light on the past

George uses similar references to “going back in time” at the start of the crypt visit.

Summer stalked out in the echoing gloom, then stopped, lifted his head, and sniffed the chill dead air. He bared his teeth and crept backward, eyes glowing golden in the light of the maester’s torch. (aGoT, Bran VII)

When you hear an echo, the sound from which it originates lies in the past. The echoing gloom is tied by George to the dead and cold with the word chill. Or he has Summer creep backward in that light of the histories.

Though Summer and Shaggydog fight, who does Shaggydog initially attack? A maester. And after Rickon appears out of Ned’s empty tomb and recalls Shaggy to him, Rickon’s warning is meant for a maester as well.

“Shaggy,” a small voice called. When Bran looked up, his little brother was standing in the mouth of Father’s tomb. With one final snap at Summer’s face, Shaggydog broke off and bounded to Rickon’s side. “You let my father be,” Rickon warned Luwin. “You let him be.” (aGoT, Bran VII)

No matter how well intentioned Luwin is and of course is not responsible for Ned Stark ending up a head short, he is still a product of the Citadel and through him has an influence on the Starks. A book later Luwin will deny the existence of magic, greenseeing and green dreaming, even go as far as drug Bran to prevent him from dreaming about wolves and weirwood trees.

The shadow fight between Shaggy and Summer therefore must be regarded as a disagreement between Starks on how to protect their legacy, which is their ancestry, from the Citadel.

In the drunken shifting torchlight, they saw Luwin struggling with the direwolf, beating at his muzzle with one hand while the jaws closed on the other. “Summer!” Bran screamed. And Summer came, shooting from the dimness behind them, a leaping shadow. He slammed into Shaggydog and knocked him back, and the two direwolves rolled over and over in a tangle of grey and black fur, snapping and biting at each other, while Maester Luwin struggled to his knees, his arm torn and bloody. Osha propped Bran up against Lord Rickard’s stone wolf as she hurried to assist the maester. In the light of the guttering torch, shadow wolves twenty feet tall fought on the wall and roof. (aGoT, Bran VII)

I propose that one faction argued for the destruction of the Citadel, while the other argued for the distortion of the truth, to make it a secret, so much so that eventually the Starks themselves did not really know the truth anymore themselves.

It therefore is no coincidence that before this particular crypt scene on page we learn from Bran in an earlier chapter that Rickon made a scene inside the crypts before already, wielding an iron sword he’d “snatched from a dead king’s hand”.

His baby brother had been wild as a winter storm since he learned Robb was riding off to war, weeping and angry by turns. He’d refused to eat, cried and screamed for most of a night, even punched Old Nan when she tried to sing him to sleep, and the next day he’d vanished. Robb had set half the castle searching for him, and when at last they’d found him down in the crypts, Rickon had slashed at them with a rusted iron sword he’d snatched from a dead king’s hand, and Shaggydog had come slavering out of the darkness like a green-eyed demon. The wolf was near as wild as Rickon; he’d bitten Gage on the arm and torn a chunk of flesh from Mikken’s thigh. It had taken Robb himself and Grey Wind to bring him to bay. Farlen had the black wolf chained up in the kennels now, and Rickon cried all the more for being without him. (aGoT, Bran VI)

So, Rickon’s two crypt scenes put the crowned protector-king (rick-on) concept together with a wildfire greenseer (brand-on) wielding an iron sword and letting a torch fly. While they seem to be split over two brothers (Rickon and Brandon), the two also overlap. Notice how in the above quote, Bran gets “propped up” agains the stone wolf of another Rick-named character, a Rickard (see Wardens), but the actions of Rickon’s wolf reveal something about a Brandon.

What we are being shown or told about Brandons and Ricks are fractures of the truth, but we should unite these. The hint to this are the eyes of both wolves in the scene. The wolf of a Rick is green-eyed, implying greenseeing, whereas the actual greenseer’s wolf Summer is golden-eyed. Together though this makes for the special color combo of green-gold, the colors of Dr. Weird. This is a superhero and ghost for which George once wrote a short story as a teen, Only Kids are Afraid in the Dark. This old short story lacks much of George’s later layering and nuance in his writing. But the color coding of green-gold versus black-red still permeats George’s writing to this very day, including the template of Dr. Weird’s trick: using a fool’s body (whose mind or soul is destroyed) to distract a black-red demon into attacking and eventually forcing them to retreat.

And that this color-code applies to the wolves is backed by several references to both Bran and Rickon supposed to being afraid of the dark.

“Rickon,” Bran said, “would you like to come with me?”
“No. I like it here.”
“It’s dark here. And cold.”
“I’m not afraid. I have to wait for Father.” (aGoT, Bran VII)

Bran could not recall the last time he had been in the crypts. It had been before, for certain. When he was little, he used to play down here with Robb and Jon and his sisters. He wished they were here now; the vault might not have seemed so dark and scary. (aGoT, Bran VII)

Arya recalls one of those times they played down in the crypts, with Bran having the age of Rickon and Jon as “ghost”.

Robb smiled when she said that. “There are worse things than spiders and rats,” he whispered. “This is where the dead walk.” That was when they heard the sound, low and deep and shivery. Baby Bran had clutched at Arya’s hand.
When the spirit stepped out of the open tomb, pale white and moaning for blood, Sansa ran shrieking for the stairs, and Bran wrapped himself around Robb’s leg, sobbing. Arya stood her ground and gave the spirit a punch. It was only Jon, covered with flour. “You stupid,” she told him, “you scared the baby,” but Jon and Robb just laughed and laughed, and pretty soon Bran and Arya were laughing too. (aGoT, Arya IV)

So, the truth about Brandon the Builder is fractured and distorted: who he was, his abilities, his bloodlines, his name, and his feats and deeds. This did not just happen because of the passing of time, and distortion of Andal and Citadel agenda. The crypt scene fight between Summer and Shaggy points to the Starks themselves wanting to bury the truth.

And while we may expect George to shed more light on Brandon the Builder via Bran’s greenseeing of the past, he uses Rickon in particular to plant the seeds for us, by having him slashh with a rusted iron sword, the torch kissing Brandon’s cheek, and Rickon eyeing the gargoyles of the First Keep through a looking glass. But I will save that for the essay on Brandon the Builder that goes into architecture way deeper. Ultmately, it revolves around Brandon’s blood and origins.

Rickon patted Shaggydog’s muzzle, damp with blood. “I let him loose. He doesn’t like chains.” He licked at his fingers. (aGoT, Bran VII)

Although the blood on Shaggy’s muzzle is Luwin’s and on the surface RIckon is portrayed as a hungry wolf licking another man’s blood from his fingers, the act of licking echoes the “licking” of the torch flames of Brandon’s statue. So, we end up with a link between being “kissed by fire” and blood. And we also have an echo to Rickon’s anti-maester or anti-Citadel sentiment – maesters wear a chain around their neck, and George does portray maesters and especially Luwin as a slave of the mind, to the anti-magic doctrine of the Citadel. (also see Bran Stark (Part 1) – Serwyn Reversed).

The Wardens

A third set of names have the suffix -ard, such as Eddard, Rickard, Ellard, Bennard, Cregard, Tommard, Raynard, and Maynard. –ard means brave or hard. But in the case of Eddard, we have a fantasy variation by George on the name Edward. In which case the suffix is actually a disguised –ward. And overall, I do believe we should have ward or warden in the back of our head with names that end with –ard.

Though warden-names are not wholly reserved for the North, or even the Starks, they do appear most often in the Stark lineage, but (excepting one) only after House Stark rescinded their crown to Aegon the Conquerer. In other words, these type of names become common for the Starks once their title becomes warden of the North and not King in the North anymore. We could say that gradually the –ric suffix is replaced by the –ard one.

Lord Ellard Stark supported Rhaenys Targaryen’s bid for the Iron Throne during the Great Council of 101 AC. Though George uses Ellard as a first name, its etymology is tied to Ellard as a surname. It is either derived from Adel(w)ard or Aelf(w)ard, with the first meaning “noble guard” (or ward) and the second “elf guard” , or “noble brave” and “elf brave”. George tends to use the prefix dare- and durran for brave or daring characters (see later). But Davos’ son Allard Seaworth is a variation of Ellard, and he is a brave and rash character, who does not survive the Battle of the Blackwater. Meanwhile Lord Allard Royce of Runestone covers the warden meaning, when Jonos Arryn rebels against Aenys I Targaryen in 37 AC and his older brother Lord Ronnel Arryn and declares himself King of Mountain and Vale. Aenys’s indecisiveness leads to Allard taking matters in his own hands, sweeping away Jonos’ supporters and pinning the remainder down at the Eyrie. Though this results in Jonos kinslaying his brother by throwing him through the Moon Door, it also ensured that upon arrival of Maegor Targaryen on the back of Balerion the rebellion was shortlived and restricted to the Eyrie alone. After Jonos’ death, the Arryn cousin Hubert Arryn gets the job. Hubert happened to be married to a Royce of Runestone and already had several children with her and as such Lord Allard’s family benefited from his noble guarding of the succession. It should be noted that the sigil of House Royce of course is a bronze shield.

The next one is Bennard Stark. As a second son and uncle to Cregan Stark, he never was actual Lord of Winterfell. But as Cregan was still a minor when he became Lord of Winterfell, Bennard was his regent and therefore a warden of Cregan Stark and therefore the North in every practical sense. And he liked being that so much, that he was very reluctant to hand over the reigns even when Cregan came of age, until eventually an eighteen year old Cregan rose up against Bennard and imprisoned his uncle (and his sons). We recognize the prefix ben– like we have with the several Benjens, but here combined with the -(w)ard suffix. That said, George tips us off that Bennard is a fantasy variation of the name Bernard, when he also includes a Bennard Brune. Bernard means “brave as a bear”. Brune is a circumlocution for the taboo word for bear (see bears and maidens). George is very much aware of this since the knightly House Brune of Brownhollow has a bearpaw for a sigil while their cousins, the landed noble House Brune, have Dyre Den as a seat. I should also add that the bear is considered to be a guardian or protector of the forest realm in real world folklore and that George RR Martin has shown to use much of the bear folklore in his bear figures.

The next warden name that appears in the Stark lineages is Cregard Stark, the eldest son of Edric Stark and Serena Stark, and grandson of Cregan Stark. We know almost nothing of him, other than his lineage and that neither he or his younger brother continued the Stark line. There is no other character named Cregard, in either the books or the histories. It is thus a unique name. We do notice of course that it must be a composite name of the illustruous Cregan with the -ard suffix. And we can also notice that his father had a rick-name, and not just any rick-name, but an Edric. So, we go from a man with an ambituous king-name to a ward-name, while referencing Cregan. The latter is an Irish surname, derived from the Gaelic O Croidheagain and the word croidhe, which means heart. The combination of these three names – Cregan to Edric to Cregard – suggests that it is not so much the crown or a throne that makes the Starks royalty, but that them being wardens or protectors of the realm of men lies at the heart of the matter.

The last two Starks with a warden name are Rickard and Eddard Stark, who both were the last two Lords of Winterfell and Wardens of the North.

Eddard Stark
Ned Stark and Ice, by Michael Komarch

Eddard is by itself as unique a name as Cregard. The sole other character called Eddard is a Karstark, and was specifically named after Ned Stark. Here we are certain the -ard suffix is associated to -ward, as Eddard is a fantasy variation by George on the name Edward, which means wealthy guard.

There is no doubt though that Eddard and Edric are related names. George makes sure of that when he has Edric Dayne being referred to as Ned Dayne, just like Eddard Stark.

“Ned, help me remove my breastplate.” Arya got goosebumps when Lord Beric said her father’s name, but this Ned was only a boy, a fair-haired squire no more than ten or twelve. (aSoS, Arya VI)

“My father was called Ned too,” she said [to Edric Dayne]. (aSoS, Arya VIII)

Basically if the Starks still would have been Kings in the North, Eddard most likely would have been called Edric.

The ward and warding meaning of Eddard’s name is not only reflected in his title as Warden of the North, but also in his backstory. He was a ward himself to Jon Arryn who protected Eddard against the Mad King’s demand to deliver Eddard’s head after the execution of both his father Rickard and his brother Brandon Stark. And after the Greyjoy Rebellion he became warden of Theon Greyjoy. Theon was his hostage to keep the father Balon Greyjoy in check.

“Ten, or close as makes no matter,” he told her. “I was a boy of ten when I was taken to Winterfell as a ward of Eddard Stark.” A ward in name, a hostage in truth. (aCoK, Theon I)

Old Flint stomped his cane against the ice. “Wards, we always called them, when Winterfell demanded boys of us, but they were hostages, and none the worse for it.” (aDwD, Jon XI)

And indeed, not before Theon returned to Pyke did Balon Greyjoy attack the continent again, and when he did attack, Balon chose the North.

In Old English ward is actually weard (guardian or protection). And as such a weird- or weirwood is a phonetical wordplay on a weardwood or a protective tree. One memorable scene of Eddard puts him beneath the weirwood tree in Catelyn’s very first POV chapter of the series. Like Bran in Bloodraven’s cave, Ned is seated on moss “beneath” the weirwood, with a magical sword (Valyran steek) Ice across his lap.

Catelyn found her husband beneath the weirwood, seated on a moss-covered stone. The greatsword Ice was across his lap, and he was cleaning the blade in those waters black as night. A thousand years of humus lay thick upon the godswood floor, swallowing the sound of her feet, but the red eyes of the weirwood seemed to follow her as she came. (aGoT, Catelyn I)

The description immediately brings a symbolical greenseer beneath the tree to mind as well as the crypt statues. It is also implied that this image goes back for thousand years. Of course, Ned Stark was not an actual greenseer and he is seated above ground, rather than inside a hollow hill. Nevertheless, he serves as the first symbolical parallel to a greenseer. In this scene we are bombarded with verbal inclusion of the children and Bran.

He lifted his head to look at her. “Catelyn,” he said. His voice was distant and formal. “Where are the children?” (aGoT, Catelyn I)

Ned asks about the whereabouts of their mutual children, but upon a reread Ned’s question could read as wondering where the children of the forest are.

He had a swatch of oiled leather in one hand. He ran it lightly up the greatsword as he spoke, polishing the metal to a dark glow. “I was glad for Bran’s sake. You would have been proud of Bran.”
“I am always proud of Bran,” Catelyn replied, watching the sword as he stroked it. (aGoT, Catelyn I)

Brandon the Builder is the sole ancestor referred to as Bran. So, in a sense both Ned and Catelyn could be interpreted as talking about the Builder as much as they discuss their own son Bran. Especially since Catelyn introduces us to the legendary Brandon the Builder in thought as she walks up to Ned in the godswood.

Even though we do not see the blood on the Ice in this scene, we are reminded that Ned’s sword had been covered with blood. So, we have a greenseer allusion asking where the children (of the forest) are, while cleaning the blood from his magical sword. With the concept of a bloodied sword and how Ned’s Ice is polished to a dark glow, we get our earliest hint to dark magic, which blood magic always inherently is, even if it were just a few drops of the greenseer’s own volunteered blood as I claim the Blood Seal to be.

RickardS

Although I said that -ard names almost exclusively appear after Torrhen Stark knelt to Aegon the Conquerer and surrendered his crown, there is one exception to this. The name Rickard Stark appears twice in the lineage or histories of House Stark. There is of course, Eddard’s father, Lord Rickard Stark, but there is also a King Rickard Stark, nicknamed the “Laughing Wolf”. This King Rickard Stark conquered the Neck and took the Marsh King’s daughter to wife. This seems to be the last King who conquered a rival northern king. We can deduce this via his father King Jon Stark, who built the Wolf’s Den to drive out sea raiders (Ibbinese, Valyrians or Andal) from the White Knife. The building of the Wolf Den heralds an era where the Kings at Winterfell would have had vassals that extended far beyond their initial petty kingdom. And thus King Rickard would have been the first King in the North, rather than King of Winter, and therefore the first fully recognized warden or guardian of the North.

As with Eddard, Rickard is George’s fantasy version of the real world name Richard, which means brave king, not warding king. Nevertheless, since other -ard names seem to cover both the brave and ward meanings, we can regard the name Rickard as being both a rick-name as well as a ward-name. By having this name appear before the surrendering of the crown and royal status to Aegon the Conquerer for a historical character who annexed the Neck to the North, George reminds us that a king’s purpose is tied to being a protector of a realm, just as Beric was in the depths of a hollow hill.

Notably, Rickard is the most “common” of the warden-names. Aside from the two Starks having had this name, there is also Rickard Karstark, Rickard Liddle, Rickard Redwyne, Rickard Rowan, Rickard Ryswell and Rickard Thorne. The Lord of Karhold who ended up being executed by Robb Stark was named after Lord Rickard Stark. We may assume the same for Rickard Liddle, as he is the youngest son of The Liddle, and Rickard Ryswell, second son to Rodrik Ryswell (aka Red Rick Ryswell. See trail of red stallion for the meaning of red). We know Lord Rodrik Ryswell had hoped to see his daughter Barbrey wed to one of Lord Rickard Stark’s sons, either Brandon or Eddard or even Benjen perhaps. So, it is very likely that he named one of Barbrey’s younger brothers in honor of his liege at the time.

Lord Rickard Rowan marched with Septon Moon against King Maegor the Cruel and camped with the septon outside of the walls of Oldtown, but did not join the Septon in attacking Oldtown after Maegor’s death. Lord Rowan was present for Jaehaerys’ wedding to Alysanne and the ten year jubilee of Jaehaerys’ reign after. His sisters and daughters were also companions (ladies in waiting) to Queen Alysanne.

Sir Rickard Redwyne was a younger contemporary of Rickard Rowan who joined his father to King’s Landing, when Lord Manfryd Redwyne got a seat at Jaeharys’ small council. He was knighted by King Jaehaerys at a squire’s tourney in celebration of the completion of the Dragonpit. Much later, he unhorsed and unmasked a mystery knight at a tourney of Old Oak: the Silver Fool turned out to be Prince Baelon and Rickard knighted him.

Finally, we have Rickard Thorne who was kingsguard during Viserys I and chose to back the Greens and Aegon II at the start of the Dance of the Dragons. When Rhaenyra and her army captured King’s Landing, he accompanied Lord Larys Strong, princess Jaehaera and nearly three-year-old prince Maelor through a secret passage in Maegor’s holdfast to help them escape. Rickard was responsible to see prince Maelor safely to Oldtown. Rhaenyra offered prize money for info and whereabouts on the false knights and her nephew. At Bitterbridge (held by the Blacks), Rickard (in duisguise) sought to stay a night at the Hogs Head inn, with his “son”. The innkeep Ben Buttercakes, allowed Rickard to stay in the barn for a silver stag and if Rickard cleaned it. While offering a drink to Rickard, the innkeep sent a stableboy to look through Rickard’s things for more silver. And thus the stableboy found Maelor’s dragon egg in Rickard’s white cloak. Rickard fled with Maelor on horseback pursued by a mob. He was killed by a crossbowman, but clung to his charge until the very end. A fight ensued between the captors of Prince Maelor: some wanted to give him to Rhaenyra for her reward, while others wished to give him to Lord Ormund Hightower at the nearby green camp for even a bigger reward, and a washerwoman wihed to keep Maelor for her own son. The stories on how he died and by whom vary, but by the time Lady Caswell of Bitterbridge arrived on the scene, Prince Maelor was dead. The prince’s head was delivered to Rhaenyra and the dragon egg to Lord Ormund.

What is noticeable is that six out of the seven Rickards were or are part of a rebellion or war story.

  • King Stark annexed the Neck after defeating the Marsh King.
  • Lord Rickard Stark’s death sparked the rebellion against the Mad King and there are rumors that he might have been part of a conspiracy to depose the Mad King in favor of Rhaegar Targaryen at a potential great council during the tourney of Harrenhal.
  • Lord Rickard Rowan rebelled against King Maegor. Rickard Karstark rebelled against King Joffrey and at the end against King Robb.
  • Rickard Thorne chose the Green side.
  • Rickard Ryswell is one of the nobles alongside Roose Bolton, while Rickard Liddle’s father the Liddle (and presumably Rickard himself) supports Stannis when he sends his heir Morgan Liddle to fight alongside Stannis to recapture Deepwood Motte and Ned’s girl (Jeyne Poole as Arya). Since Rickard Ryswell smootched with Mance’s “washer woman”, he may even be part of the Northern conspiritors against Roose inside Winterfell, along with his sister Barbrey. The fact that his father Rodrik is a red-character, Red Rick, suggests that he is either a false supporter of Roose or his House or line will end.

And even though the Rickard in question may not always survive the rebellion or war, the ruler he is against dies violently: the Marsh King, Maegor, Rhaenyra Targaryen, the Mad King, King Joffrey, and Robb Stark. We could say that this is covered by the Rick-part of the name.

And of course with several we have the warding meaning too, especially for the green side:

  • I already postulated how by annexing the Neck, King Rickard Stark likely was the first King in the North rather than King of Winter, and therefore made the Starks protectors and wardens of all the North. And the Starks lived up to that role ever after. But notice too how the Marsh Kings were considered to be touched by the Old Gods and how they rode lizard-lions. This evokes the image of a “green dragon”, or of the “wildfire” concept.
  • Rickard Redwyne unmasked a mystery knight at Old Oak (a tree often standing in for weirwood) and the knight turned out to be a Targaryen prince who rode the green dragon Vhagar. Prince Baelon was also known as the Spring Prince. And so, since Rickard knighted this Spring Prince, he is associated with the making of a green wilfdire knight (who wielded Dark Sister). This brings to mind the mystery knight of the Laughing Tree who taught squires a lesson during the false spring, in defence of a young man who would lord the Neck and lead to events that would result in a wildfire (k)night’s watchman, Jon.
  • Rickard Thorne chose the “greens” who were Targaryens and dragonriders, and thus “green dragons” or a “wildfire” king.
  • Rickard Karstark was beheaded by Robb in front of a weirwood in the godswood of Riverrun. The Karstark sigil is a sunburst. Together we have a wildfire image once more.
  • Rickard Stark was cooked/burned alive in his armor in a false “trial by combat”. The material to burn him was wildfire.
The Death of Rickard Stark and Brandon Stark by Reaprycon

It is therefore quite interesting that Bran Stark gets “propped up” against Rickard Stark’s statue by Osha (a stand in for child of the forest) in the crypt scene with Rickon and Shaggy attacking maester Luwin, while the torch kissed the stone cheek of Brandon Stark’s statue and blackens Brandon Stark’s legs. It circles back to the wildfire greenseer Brandon the Builder and his line transitioning into protectors of the realm, aka greenseer kings.

Maynard

Maynard Plumm is a character that appears in the Mystery Knight. Supposedly he is a hedge knight from House Plumm and distantly related to Lord Viserys Plumm. He meets with Duncan and Egg as they are on their way to the tourney of Whitewalls. He defends Brynden Rivers’ actions and advizes Duncan several times against staying at the tourney after the wedding of Lord Ambrose and his new wife, Lady Frey. Maynard himself never participates in the tourney. He aids a wounded Duncan and makes sure that Aegon is safe and informs Duncan that Brynden Rivers knows that the tourney is a cover to crown Damon II Blackfyre. Then the hedge knight disappears and the next morning Brynden Rivers arrives to arrest with his army. It is believed that Maynard Plumm was Bloodraven himself in a glamor. (See for example this reddit thread on several of the hints to this). So Maynard = Brynden = Brandon.

The surname Maynard is of Norman origin and comes from an Old French first name Mainard or Meinard, which is derived from Old Germanic.Maginard. We already know that the -ard suffix means strong or brave or hard. But Magin doubles down on the strength meaning. So, the name just means strong. But as George also uses the -ard as a disguised -ward, we could regard the name Maynard as meaning strong ward. And we can also recognize the name to be a wordplay by George to point out that Bloodraven is the main ward(en) or protector of the realm in the Mystery Knight and aSoIaF.

One other character carries the name Maynard in the novels: namely Maynard Holt. He is a Night’s Watchman, captain of the Talon at Eastwatch-by-the-Sea who sails with Cotter Pyke to Hardhome, where his ship was reported to take on water. In the hçuse name Holt we recognize a wordplay to “hold”. Combine this with strong ward, and his name would mean hold the wall basically. Interestingly enough, house Holt’s seat was the Wolf’s Den. Therefore Maynard Holt seems yet another name hint to the Starks’ main role is to preserve the ward of the Wall and this may even include keeping their origins secret and have them be associated with wolves rather than green dragonblood.

Index

CONCLUSION

Via this etymological spurred research of Brandons, Ricks and Wardens the following picture emerges the following hypothesis about Brandon the Builder that I propose.

Brandon the Builder was the last hero and wielder of Lightbringer, crucial in ending the Long Night and helping to form the Night’s Watch and protect the realm during the Long Night by sheltering people in a secret underground city, cave system, that is now known as Winterfell. As a descendant of Garth the Green, he was a greenseer. But he was unique in that he also had dragonblood. This was not Targaryen or even Valyrian blood as it is with his namesake Brynden Rivers, but likely proto-Valyrian Dayne blood. He would have gotten this blood from his mother. While there are claims in world about his father or paternal ancestor being Brandon of the Bloody Blade of the Reach, there is a curious absence in mentioning the maternal line. And yet, we know that the mother is important, as Arya reminds us of early on. We are regularly reminded of greenseers, actual or symbolical, of having mothers. Bloodraven’s mother named him Brynden. Beric asks whether Thoros is his mother now.

The repeated pattern of Storm’s End having fostered bastards of noble blood, including a Rick heavily featured in a Lightbringer plot, suggests that Brandon the Builder might have been bastard born, explaining why his maternal lineage was so easily obscured. Nevertheless, if he was a bastard son of a Dayne princess that would explain how Brandon could have become a wielder of Dawn as Lightbringer, and therefore a Sword of the Morning. It may even be that Brandon’s wielding of Dawn as a bastard with Dayne blood, may be the origin why Dawn became a sword that any member of the House could wield when the need arises. It also explains how he founded of a totally new house, and chose to never return south.

Via Brynden Tully as a Brandon, we get hints to Brandon the Builder’s ties to the Black Gate. The focus on Brynden’s weathered face as Guardian of the Bloody Gate combined with Bran thinking of the Black Gate’s face as what a face would look like after thousands of years, suggests that the face may actually be Brandon’s face, after he became fully one with a weirwood tree at the end of his prolonged greenseer life. Notice too how we have a parallel of names between a Bloody Gate and the magical weirwood Black Gate of the Wall. This fits the concept of the Blood Seal that I propose – that Brandon used his own unique wildfire blood to seal the magical ward of the Wall. After all a “guardian of the bloody gate” is a warden of a gate.

This brings us to the third group of names amongst the Starks: the ward names. Because of the Blood Seal, Brandon’s descendants were always protectors and wardens of the realm. They had to ensure that the seal on the Wall’s ward remained intact and unbroken. In other words, Brandon’s particular wildfire blood was not to be spilled on the Wall. Dawn was sent back south. Brandon’s wildfire blood became a necessary secret as well as the fact that he was the last hero. Initially it was okay for him to be known as a greenseer, and this was how he was mostly portrayed, until even that became a threat with the rise of the Citadel’s influence and the Andals. The Stark descendants wed into daughters of northern houses, dousing the fire out of their blood, and consolidated power over the North to ensure that no other rival house would have a wildfire skinchanger near the Wall. This tactic succeeded for thousands of years, until a dragon prince begot a wildfire skinchanger with a Stark daughter and that wildfire skinchanger was sent to the Wall.

Of course, my hypothesis still needs much more evidence than what we have gathered from the name business, but it already laid the groundwork for it.

Brandon’s Blood Seal – Introduction

(Top Image: Brandon the Builder overseeing the construction of the Wall)

“Much of those details are lost in the mists of time and legend. No one can even say for certain if Brandon the Builder ever lived. He is as remote from the time of the novels as Noah and Gilgamesh are from our own time.” (So Spake Martin, The Wall)

This was part of George’s answer when asked to give a brief description on how the Wall was constructed. The details are lost to time and legend, and “no one” can even say with certainty whether Brandon the Builder ever lived. I never naysay a quote from George. But the interpretation of the meaning of the quote and the way it is used amongst the fandom is flawed. It is indeed doubtful whether someone ever exist who was referred to as Brandon the Builder by his peers within his lifetime. Possibly over time several Brandons or their achievements got conflated into one. And it is highly likely that some lord or king wanted to be fashionable and claim his castle or tower was built by Brandon even when it was not.

But someone helped raise the magical ward of the Wall. Someone settled at Winterfell. And house Stark were his descendants. The Wall – magical and physical – exists. Winterfell, the weirwood, and the crypts exist, attested for thousands of years. House Stark is embedded in the North first as petty Kings of Winter and later Kings in the North, also for thousands of years. This differs from Noah, because we do not have remains of an archeological arc that has been known to be Noah’s for thousands of years. Our DNA genesis disputes the notion that the world was populated after a flood by Noah and his descendants alone. In the worst case scenario, Brandon the Builder is more of an in-world pseudohistorical character like King Arthur. We can use what we have as “archeological” remainder in the current timeline that harks back to the era and age that this someone once lived, draw conclusions from or about it and make some proposals. And instead of referring to this person as “someone” we might as well call him Brandon.

With literature and fiction it does not even matter whether the legendary man existed or not. This is literary analysis. If Mance sings about an acknowledged self-invented hero Baloo the Bear, that song and Baloo can still serve as a parallel, foreshadowing, hints and clues. In that sense, analysis of legends and claims about Brandon the Builder are valid.

If you analyse George’s remark you notice that he avoided answering the question directly, a month after aSoS was published. There was no World Book, no warded cave with a backdoor. This was the sole thing we knew about Brandon the Builder, which paints him as an architect. At best, we just had the confirmation that the Wall had a magical ward like Storm’s End.

Furthermore, the quote is incomplete. George also volunteered this.

But one thing I will say, for what it’s worth — more than ice went into the raising of the Wall. Remember, these are =fantasy= novels. (So Spake Martin, The Wall)

So, here is my disclaimer and answer to the quote, in a nutshell: Brandon the Builder may not have existed, but somebody once existed who helped with the Wall and founded House Stark. I refer to this person as Brandon the Builder when I talk about the legend or Brandon (the Greenseer) when I refer to the fantasy historical character. He was called Dean Sand for all I care, but it would be odd and confusing to the reader for me to refer to him as such. We can deconstruct some of the claims, but also draw conclusions, because the legendary Brandon the Builder is still a literary device used by George.

Another argument that pops up when someone tries to propose a theory about the distant past, especially when it  includes analysis of the world building relayed in the World Book is that (a) most of these sections were written out by Elio Garcia and Linda Antonson, not George RR Martin, so we should not look into symbolism or wordplay in this and (b) we will never go to those places in the series so how can they be relevant.

To (a) I will remind the reader that this was a close cooperation, with Elio and Linda having notes from George and that he “polished and filled in holes” of their writing. I will answer (b) with a quote from Quaithe.

“To go north, you must journey south, to reach the west you must go east. To go forward you must go back and to touch the light you must pass beneath the shadow.” (aCoK, Daenerys III)

This was Quaithe’s advice to Dany in Qarth, often taken to imply that Dany would learn and find out the truth and help she needs in Asshai, which is nicknamed beneath the shadow. In my opinon, George had plans for Dany to lead the Dothraki across the Bone Mountains and journey as far as Asshai and for Tyrion to follow the footsteps of Lomas Longstrider. Bran seeing dragons fly in the Shadow near Asshai in his coma dream, Jorah Mormont attempting to persuade Dany to flee the Dothraki and go to Asshai with him, as well as MMD and Marwyn having both studied in Asshai set it up for an intended destination, Dany’s third dream including ghosts with pale swords and different colored eyes that we see again in the named dynasties of the Great Empire of the Dawn: all of these stem from aGoT, where Dany journeyed from Pentos to Vaes Dothrak in less than half a book. Along the way she would see the wonders and hear of tales about a hero with a flaming sword.

Originally, George intended to write the events in Meereen as backstory. Meanwhile all that occurs to Jon in aDwD, would happen as we read it, but 5 years later. And since George has no intention of having Dany arrive in Westeros before aDoS, he intended Dany to have adventures between going to the Dosh Khaleen and beginning her conquest of Essos west of the Bone Mountains beyond Slaver’s Bay (or he may have intended for her to cross the Sunset Sea from Asshai). But he had to scrap the 5 year gap and imo therefore drop Dany’s expansive adventures east of the Bone Mountains.

Hence, the World Book project with Elio and Linda provided a way for George to give us the world and legends east of the Bone Mountains. Quaithe’s advice therefore must now be regarded as a meta-advice to the reader, rather than Dany. And that advice does not just concern “go to Asshai”, nor does it just pertain knowledge that only concerns Dany. It basically tells us that truth and origin stories for the North are to be found in the south, and that knowledge about Westeros is to be found in the east. Since Quaithe gives this advice in Qarth, which is the last big city on the western side of the Bone Mountains, going east implies east of the Bone Mountains. Quaithe’s quote supports the fantasy archeological efforts that History of Westeros and David Lightbringer have attempted to do the last five to six years. George intended to have us see some of these empires and cities and hear the legends within the main series. He had to scrap that entirely, but instead made sure to gift it to us via the World Book and with the help of Elio and Linda, after he published aFfC and started on aDwD. We should not scorn that gift!

Finally, I know that a set of readers will be most reluctant against the idea of “special blood”. And I will propose a bloodline for Brandon the Builder that made him quite a unique and special person in his era, because of it. But my point is not the claim that he therefore could do things what others could not. Quite the opposite. My point is that he realized its uniqueness in Westeros would safeguard the magical ward of the Wall for thousands of years, if not forever. My point is that he used its uniqueness for mankind and the last thing he wanted was there for someone with his blood mixture to come again, let alone anywhere near the Wall. That imo is a subversion of the special blood trope.

What we can uncover about the history of Winterfell, Brandon the Builder and other legends of the age of heroes is actually quite massive. And I actually will rely mostly on main series text via parallels, etymology, wordplay, (symbolic) imagery use. The parallels involve several characters and locations with telling scenes, names, swords, sigils, and surrounding characters: Bloodraven, Bran, his uncle, Rickon, Beric, Edric and Gerold Dayne, the last hero, the Essosi versions, Arya, Ned Stark, Durran(s), Winterfell, Storm’s End, Hightower, Standfast, Dark Sister, Ice, Dawn, Bloody blades and bloodlines… There is so much and it is so intertwined with one another that, yet again, I have to split this up in different parts.

  • Part 1-  What’s in a Name: I will give an overview establish the most important relevant parallels between characters, their pupils, the swords in their possession, their “blood” and the main sites connected to them, while delving into the etymological meaning of names. This will give you a robust view and is a reference section to wordplay and interpretation I will refer to continiously in the other parts.
  • Part 2 – Deconstructing the Legend: I will disprove the picture painted of Brandon the Builder as an architect, and instead use the parallels established in Part 1 to propose a rather obvious conclusion on Brandon’s actual talents and use the text of these parallels to recreate what Winterfell was when Brandon got there, as well as showcase that Brandon was the last hero.
  • Part 3 – The Bloody Swords: Though the swords will have been mentioned in the prior two parts, here I will discuss them more in depth, on how they have been used, how they can be used, and the implications if Brandon’s sword was indeed Dawn.
  • Part 4 – Wildfire and Blood: In this section I will propose Brandon’s own ancestral lineage which gave him a rather unique blood imprint to create a Blood Seal and the decisions he took in the hope to prevent his Blood Seal from being broken.

I also wish to thank the following people for the hard work they put in the following resources. Here is a list of resources either as background or to become familiar with the quotes and arguments:

Quoth, the Raven

(Top image: The Raven, by Black Toad)

“Pyp should learn to hold his tongue. I have heard the same from others. King’s blood, to wake a dragon. Where Melisandre thinks to find a sleeping dragon, no one is quite sure. It’s nonsense. Mance’s blood is no more royal than mine own. He has never worn a crown nor sat a throne. He’s a brigand, nothing more. There’s no power in brigand’s blood.”
The raven looked up from the floor. “Blood,” it screamed. (aFfC, Samwell I)

In They’re Here! I laid before you the circumstantial evidence of the presence of some Others just north of Castle Black the day the Pink Letter arrives and Bowen Marsh attacks Jon, as well as the foreshadowing and indication that the moment Jon’s blood dropped on the snow, the Others raise an army of wights from the many brothers still buried and unburned in the lichyard.

Towards the end, I mentioned the concept of a Blood Seal, for which the whole series of essays is named. Basically the Blood Seal Thesis proposes that while children of the forest provide the spellwork for a warding spell as was used for Storm’s End, the Wall and Bloodraven’s cave, the spell is sealed and locked to a location or area by spilling one’s own blood. The spell then is tied to a particular blood imprint and the seal can only be broken by someone who has a similar imprint. And in the Wall’s case, Jon’s blood can break the seal.

It is quite a simple concept, but devastating for the years of speculation and theorizing on how the Wall ends up destroyed: Mel’s bag of tricks or Sam or Euron blowing the mended horn at the Fist of the First Men in Oldtown. If the Blood Seal Thesis is indeed true, then the true Wall (the magical ward) is already done for when Wyck grazed Jon’s neck. And that, quite understandably, is a hard pill to swallow.

Now, I did not pluck this Blood Seal concept out of thin air. Mormont’s raven shows it to Jon, Sam and the reader. He physically mimes it, using Sam as prop. Hence, this essay will analyze the words and actions of Mormont’s raven for two chapters: Samwell’s first chapter of aFfC and Jon’s second chapter of aDwD. These two chapters belong together, for they start as each other’s timeline parallel in Castle Black, before they conjoin with Jon informing Samwell that he is to go to Oldtown.

Index

  • Mormont’s Raven: my take on the arguments about interpreting the bird.
  • Bloodraven: when Mormont’s raven is skinchanged, Bloodraven is behind it, because this is how Bloodraven keeps true to his vows of the Night’s Watch.
  • Swapping Babes: Bloodraven does not want Jon to swap the babes, foreseeing death.
  • A Mad Mouse: Bloodraven skinchanges a mouse to hurry Sam into interrupting Jon’s meeting with Sam.
  • Saving a Son?: Is Bloodraven a sentimental old sot, or is there more?
  • The Shield: Bloodraven reenacts the blood magic that seals a warding spell.
  • The Seal: more wordplay by George about the Blood Seal
  • The Ward: a hostage is a ward and sending your hostage away may not be a great idea.
  • Conclusion (tl;tr)

Mormont’s Raven

Theorists and book fans have grown dubious about interpreting Mormont’s raven, ever since Ser Creigthon’s corn-code in 2013. Unfortunately the debunking of this proposal has led to a far too easy rejection of interpretations to the raven’s actions and words in certain context. Both the corn-code and Ran’s answer to it are taken out of context. People misremember the corn-code as some type of dictionary with the word corn meaning death, and Ran’s argument is now used to dismiss any and all interpretations of the raven’s actions and words. Ser Creighton argued that George RR Martin hid a code into the raven’s speech that followed rules about repetition, capitals or non-capital as well as punctuation. It treated any raven’s words as some type of morse code to be deciphered, without context. At the time, Ran debunked the corn-code’s premise – that anything ravens say in threes had foreshadowing meaning – and infamously added that sometimes a raven is just hungry (paraphrasing).

For those interested in rereading the corn-code:

While I appreciated Ser Creighton’s effort, the main mistake and flaw of the theory is to try to fixate George’s writing into a hard set of rules. George’s writing is much more fluid and his bag of tricks varied, but never without context. A touch of (phonetic) wordplay, a rare pinch of an anagram, an evocative imaginative scene, a foundation of parallels, a splash of color, and a generous pouring of symbolism sauce. The corn-code never truly treated Mormont’s raven as a character that wishes to add his own two cents to the topic of discussion between characters within its context with the few means it has available. The corn-code never tackled the raven as an animal that is skinchanged at certain times and at other times is a mere intelligent bird with the ability to parrot words. And sometimes the skinchanger hopes to persuade a suspicious character into believing the raven is merely an animal, just like Bran sometimes says “Hodor” while skinchanging Hodor so that Meera and Jojen would not discover the truth. And since the corn-code never considered Mormont’s raven as an actual character, it therefore is just as silly by the naysayers to apply Ran’s argument to any actual analysis that investigates the raven’s words and actions within the context of a scene. Ran never claimed that whatever Mormont’s raven said or did is meaningless. He debunked the secret code idea in particular.

Ryan_Valle_Old_Bear_MormontII
Jeor Mormont with his raven, by Ryan Valle (Fantasy Flight Games)

Analyzing the words and deeds of Mormont’s raven is not easy and certainly not always entirely obvious. Aside from interpreting his words, behavior or body language, one must first determine whether we are seeing Mormont’s raven in action as animal or as skinchanged. I do have a vague rule to assess this: when the raven behaves very deliberate then most of the time he is being skinchanged. And yes, I emphasize “most of the time”, because George also is quite capable of convincing the reader that when the raven is flapping and screaming “snow” repeatedly in warning as I pointed out in They’re Here! it must be skinchanged, when in fact a non-skinchanged raven may be just as alarmed naturally by the smell of the Others or wights as much as Chett’s dogs are at the Fist. In Samwell’s first chapter of aFfC as well as Jon’s second chapter of aDwD, however, Mormont’s raven behaves too deliberate to ascribe to natural behavior and each word and action fits within a certain skinchanger attempting to warn Sam and Jon against the consequences of the baby swap.

Bloodraven

Before we tackle those particular chapters, I will lay down the arguments that Mormont’s raven is being skinchanged by Bloodraven in particular. Even if we ‘know’ or ‘speculated’ that Mormont’s raven is being skinchanged, we tend to think of him more as a super intelligent bird with uncanny foreknowledge all on his own. That was how he we came to think of him when he was introduced to us in aGoT and had no idea there was such a thing as skinchanging (only introduced in aCoK). But in aDwD he confirms it via Jon’s Wall dream.

The world dissolved into a red mist. Jon stabbed and slashed and cut. He hacked down Donal Noye and gutted Deaf Dick Follard. Qhorin Halfhand stumbled to his knees, trying in vain to staunch the flow of blood from his neck. “I am the Lord of Winterfell,” Jon screamed. It was Robb before him now, his hair wet with melting snow. Longclaw took his head off. Then a gnarled hand seized Jon roughly by the shoulder. He whirled …and woke with a raven pecking at his chest. “Snow,” the bird cried. Jon swatted at it. The raven shrieked its displeasure and flapped up to a bedpost to glare down balefully at him through the predawn gloom. (aDwD, Jon XII)

Someone actually entered into Jon’s dream to wake him up and that someone has a gnarled hand, and thus a tree related individual. Only greenseers have been proven to enter someone’s dream and interact with them. The three-eyed-crow appeared to Jojen in a greywater fever dream and visited Bran’s dreams often, including an infamous one to “wake” him out of his coma after his fall. And Bran appeared once as a slender weirwood in Jon’s wolf dream when he was warging Ghost. Bran then touched Jon’s own third eye, after which Jon became aware he was a warg and actively used Ghost to spy on the wildlings gathering at the source of the Milkwater. And Bran’s own POV in aCoK confirms this was a shared experience.

In the quoted Wall-dream the gnarled hand is associated to Mormont’s raven trying to wake him as well. One might argue that the greenseer reaching out for Jon’s shoulder with his (tree) gnarled hand may not be the raven. But as Jon dresses himself after being woken, Mormont’s raven points out that Jon is King.

He rose and dressed in darkness, as Mormont’s raven muttered across the room. “Corn,” the bird said, and, “King,” and, “Snow, Jon Snow, Jon Snow.” That was queer. The bird had never said his full name before, as best Jon could recall. (aDwD, Jon XII)

Mormont’s raven did not say this out of the blue, but was correcting Jon’s own dream-claim. The raven could only do so if he was a witness to Jon’s dream, and thus the same greenseer with the gnarled hand. So, this is the scene where George shows us without telling that Mormont’s raven is being skinchanged by a greenseer.

So, why Bloodraven and not Bran? After all, this dream occurs around the time Stannis interrogates Theon and both Bloodraven and Bran skinchange two ravens, advising to drag Theon before a weirwood tree. Bran already appeared as a weirwood tree in Jon’s wolf dream in the Skirling Pass in aCoK. So, having him interact with tree features in Jon’s Wall dream might be a hint to this. I can not fully dismiss that possibility for this dream instance. However, I would point out that there is a second character trying to wake Jon from his dream as an eagle.

Burning shafts hissed upward, trailing tongues of fire. Scarecrow brothers tumbled down, black cloaks ablaze. “Snow,” an eagle cried, as foemen scuttled up the ice like spiders. (aDwD, Jon XII)

In other words, Bloodraven and Bran are both visiting Jon in this dream, the teacher and pupil. I lean towards Bran being the eagle, while the gnarled hand and Mormont’s raven are Bloodraven. The eagle attempts to wake Jon without much awareness of the magical significance of this dream, while the gnarled hand intervenes in a manner he wants to halt Jon’s Wall dream right there and then. The word gnarled fits the ancient Bloodraven more, and Melisandre sees Bloodraven as a wooden man in her flames.

A face took shape within the hearth. Stannis? she thought, for just a moment … but no, these were not his features. A wooden face, corpse white. Was this the enemy? A thousand red eyes floated in the rising flames. He sees me. Beside him, a boy with a wolf’s face threw back his head and howled. (aDwD, Melisandre I)

bloodraven_tree_seanclosson
Bloodraven, by Sean Closson

There is also another symbolic connection with Bloodraven being the gnarled hand and the raven calling Jon Snow king, and not Bran. It harks back to Bloodraven’s life before he left for the Wall and beyond: Bloodraven was the Hand of the King to two Targaryen kings, Aerys I and Maekar I, and kingmaker when he arrested and executed Aenys Blackfyre. And thus, this imagery of the gnarled hand reaching for Jon’s shoulder and as raven referring to him as king would make it so that Bloodraven served as Hand to a third (Targaryen) king in the skin of Mormont’s raven. This symbolic impact of threes would be lacking if in this instant Bran is the gnarled hand and skinchaning Mormont’s raven. Take note that my proposal here implies that Bran and Bloodraven already witnessed the events of the Tower of Joy from their end, and thus I predict that any such Bran POV chapter in tWoW would timeline with aDwD, Jon XII.

This particular dream waking by Mormont’s raven is not the first time we see this. In his first chapter of aDwD, Jon is woken up in a similar manner from a warg dream.

“Snow,” the moon murmured. The wolf made no answer. Snow crunched beneath his paws. The wind sighed through the trees. […] “Snow,” the moon called down again, cackling. The white wolf padded along the man trail beneath the icy cliff. The taste of blood was on his tongue, and his ears rang to the song of the hundred cousins. Once they had been six, five whimpering blind in the snow beside their dead mother, sucking cool milk from her hard dead nipples whilst he crawled off alone. Four remained … and one the white wolf could no longer sense. “Snow,” the moon insisted. […] “Snow.” An icicle tumbled from a branch. The white wolf turned and bared his teeth. “Snow!” His fur rose bristling, as the woods dissolved around him. “Snow, snow, snow!” He heard the beat of wings. Through the gloom a raven flew. It landed on Jon Snow’s chest with a thump and a scrabbling of claws. “SNOW!” it screamed into his face. (aDwD, Jon I)

As Jon wargs Ghost, the moon starts to call his name to wake him. And as Jon wakes Mormont’s raven lands on his chest screaming his name to wake him. That the moon is actually the raven we can determine by the mention of the moon cackling. Notice too that as Jon wakes the raven is beating its wings and flying to land on his chest. The raven therefore sat perched somewhere in the room at a distance, fitting with the further off moon calling Jon’s name. At this point, Bran has not yet skinchanged any raven yet. Nor do Bran’s POVs of aDwD reveal he decided to serve as an alarm clock for the Lord Commander at the Wall. And thus here we can be certain that Bloodraven = Mormont’s raven, and always has been.

This gives an insight into Bloodraven that may not match with the general reader perception of him based on the gossip of the smallfolk in the Dunk & Egg novellas and his Machiavellian choices as Hand of the King. When readers suggest that Bloodraven skinchanges any other animal beyond Mormont’s raven south of the Neck, they basically consider him still hanging on to his role as Master of Whisperers, spying on anyone anywhere in the realm with regards the Iron Throne. In that view, Bloodraven only skinchanges Mormont’s raven in crucial scenes to keep tabs on the Night’s Watch on an equal level that he spies on the plots in the Red Keep in the black tomcat believed to be Rhaenys’ kitten Balerion. Bloodraven skinchanging Mormont’s raven to be Jon’s alarm clock seems a use of his precious time far beneath that. And yet, I would argue that the animal that Bloodraven skinchanges most of the time is in fact Mormont’s raven, and that this goes beyond keeping tabs. As Mormont’s raven, Bloodraven has attempted to remain true to his vows to the best of his ability: making suggestions to Lord Commanders and waking them up like a steward.

Night gathers, and now my watch begins. It shall not end until my death. I shall take no wife, hold no lands, father no children. I shall wear no crowns and win no glory. I shall live and die at my post. I am the sword in the darkness. I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold, the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers, the shield that guards the realms of men. I pledge my life and honor to the Night’s Watch, for this night and all the nights to come. (aGoT, Jon VI)

LC Brynden Rivers of the NW by Mike Hallstein
Lord Commander Brynden Rivers of the Night’s Watch, by Mike Hallstein

Brynden Rivers ended up taking the black, after he arrested and executed Aenys Blackfyre who had wanted to press his claim at the Great Council of 233 AC after the death of Maekar I. When Aegon V was chosen as the new king, he gave Bloodraven the choice between execution or taking the black. He opted for the black and formed an honor guard to accompany maester Aemon to the Wall. This backstory cleverly makes Bloodraven out to a man who was forced to go to the Wall like a common criminal and abandoned his post eventually to seek for another greenseer.

But I think it was almost a certainty Bloodraven had already decided to join maester Aemon to the Wall voluntarily at the age of 58, once Aemon Targaryen had rejected the offer of a crown. His choices and actions with Daemon II Blackfyre at Whitewalls (in Mystery Knight) show that Brynden Rivers was fully capable of entrapping and arresting traitors and Blackfyres without bloodshed. Bloodraven’s choice to allow Aenys Blackfyre to come, arrest and execute him make the most sense, if he had already decided to step down as Hand and go to the Wall. Once Aemon had rejected the crown, the sole viable Targaryen claimant was Aegon. Meanwhile Aenys Blackfyre proved to be dillusional, but also power hungry. He may have been Daemon Blackfyre’s son, but he tried to jump ahead of his nephew, the son of his older brother, without the backing of even Bittersteel (see House Blackfyre). Aenys’ claim would have failed, but he could form certain alliances with houses (who had just cost them king Maekar) to make trouble at the start of the reign of the new king Aegon. So, he could go to the Wall for the remainder of his life, with his honor intact and hand a divided realm to young king Aegon V,  or he could go to the Wall as a convicted criminal, and give Aegon V a few years before Bittersteel would attempt another rebellion with Daemon III (the nephew Aenys tried to get ahead in line of). Ruthless, to be sure, and Machiavellian, but it was never a reason to doubt his devotion for the Wall before and after his disappearance at 77 during a ranging in 252 AC.

And yes, I have quotes that support the notion that at the very least Bloodraven still considers himself a man of the Night’s Watch.

“The Lord Commander’s place is at Castle Black, lording and commanding,” [Thoren Smallwood] told Mormont, ignoring [Jon and Sam], “it seems to me.”
The raven flapped big black wings. “Me, me, me.”
“If you are ever Lord Commander, you may do as you please,” Mormont told the ranger, “but it seems to me that I have not died yet, nor have the brothers put you in my place.”(aCoK, Jon I)

When Jeor Mormont is about to go on the great ranging, Thoren Smallwood tries to convince Jeor that the Lord Commander should not go ranging at all and should remain at Castle Black. Mormont’s raven refers to himself as the role of Lord Commander. It is as if he is saying, “I can lord and command”. After all, Bloodraven was elected as Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch in 239 AC and he has not yet died.

So, basically what I am saying is that Bloodraven still tries to honor his oath to the Night’s Watch. It may be that he does it in an unorthodox way, both by skinchanging a raven at the Wall to remain at his post as well as searching and now training a greenseer. Nevertheless both align with shielding the realms of men. It is not that different from Jon realizing that the Free Folk are also men/humans and therefore they are part of the realms of men and worth protecting. When we keep that in the back of our mind, then some of his actions and words as Mormont’s raven can be understood more in depth.

Swapping Babes

One of the major plot developments of both aFfC, Samwell I and aDwD, Jon II is Jon’s plan to send Gilly away from the Wall together with maester Aemon and Mance’s baby, instead of her own son. Amongst readers there is much speculation on the fate of Gilly’s boy because of this swap. And when people argue that sweet little Monster is doomed, they often dig up the dark words of Mormont’s raven in aDwD, Jon II as foreshadowing for this. In fact, I was doing an elaborate analysis on the baby swap plot, when I realized that the raven’s words are more than the literary device of foreshadowing, but instead come from a character with foreknowledge who wants to stop the swap. And I will argue that Bloodraven goes to certain lengths in attempting to stop it.

For a correct analysis of Mormont’s raven commentary, we must reshuffle the two chapters into one but from Bloodraven’s POV. And thus we must begin with aDwD, Jon II first, then switch to aFfC, Samwell I, back to aDwD, Jon II and then both chapters parallel to each other. Jon’s chapter starts with him reading the letter he is supposed to send to King’s Landing, what he refers to as a paper shield, over and over until his eyes blur, knowing he must sign it, but unwilling to do so. Dolorous Edd interrupts Jon by announcing Gilly’s arrival.

It was a relief when Dolorous Edd Tollett opened the door to tell him that Gilly was without. Jon set Maester Aemon’s letter aside. “I will see her.” He dreaded this. “Find Sam for me. I will want to speak with him next.”
“He’ll be down with the books. My old septon used to say that books are dead men talking. Dead men should keep quiet, is what I say. No one wants to hear a dead man’s yabber.” Dolorous Edd went off muttering of worms and spiders. (aDwD, Jon II)

Jon asks Edd to find him Sam and that he wishes to speak with him after Gilly. And Tollett volunteers that his best chance in finding Sam will be down in the library. Gilly enters and Jon informs her he has to tell her something hard. After confirming that Mance will burn, he points out how the life of Dalla’s son is in danger as well.

“[…] It’s not [Mance] we need to talk about. It’s his son. Dalla’s boy.”
“The babe?” Her voice trembled. “He never broke no oath, m’lord. He sleeps and cries and sucks, is all; he’s never done no harm to no one. Don’t let her burn him. Save him, please.”
“Only you can do that, Gilly.” Jon told her how. (aDwD, Jon II)

The chapter never puts Jon’s plan into speech, but the how is revealed in aFfC to send Gilly away from the Wall with Dalla’s boy, pretending that the babe is her son. Bloodraven learns of Jon’s plan the same time that Gilly is told of it here. The greenseer may be able to interact with Jon and Bran on the dreamscape and enter their dreams, but that is the closest he can come to “mind reading”.

Bloodraven and Gilly give a similar reply to Jon’s plan.

Gilly shook her head. “No. Please, no.”
The raven picked up the word. “No,” it screamed. (aDwD, Jon II)

Gilly and Monster_beespit
Gilly, by beespit

What follows are Jon’s arguments to Gilly where he represents Mel burning Mance’s son a certainty and even threatens to kill Gilly’s son the day that Dalla’s son burns if Gilly refuses.

“You will make a crow of him.” She wiped at her tears with the back of a small pale hand. “I won’t. I won’t.”
Kill the boy, thought Jon. “You will. Else I promise you, the day that they burn Dalla’s boy, yours will die as well.”
“Die,” shrieked the Old Bear’s raven. “Die, die, die.” (aDwD, Jon II)

If Bloodraven foresees (multiple) death, then why does he remain silent for so long in between screaming, “No,” and “Die”? The conversation is no less ominous, also mentions dying and death, but it takes almost two pages of interaction before Mormont’s raven speaks again. We would almost expect him to scream “burn” or “take him” or “cold” and other phrases the raven has uttered in the past. But the raven says none of that. It takes so long, in contrast to his own initial protest, that it leads to the possibility that Bloodraven was not actually in the skin of Mormont’s raven in between his “No,” and “Die”.

I propose that Bloodraven realized that Gilly needed an ally by her side to have the strength to withstand Jon’s pressure and coming threats: Sam. Jon had sent Edd Tollett in search of Samwell to speak with him after Gilly. If Bloodraven could get Sam moving before that, then Sam might interrupt Jon’s meeting with Gilly and prevent the swap from happening. Sam faced and killed wights to protect and save Gilly and her son. If he could find the courage to do that, he also would have the courage to tell Jon “No”.

A Mad Mouse

Dolorous Edd had volunteered Sam’s whereabouts, and so Bloodraven knew exactly where to find him: in the library with his books. Now I ask you to whose benefit was it that George had Edd reveal Sam’s whereabouts? Tollett is the one to fetch him and it is odd that he would voice the location. Jon does not care where Edd will find Sam, as long as he finds him and tells him to go see Jon. The sole in-world reason for Tollett to mention the otherwise superfluous information of Sam’s whereabouts is for a third ear, which is the raven’s, and thus Bloodraven.

So, after witnessing Jon’s first response to Gilly’s no, Bloodraven stops skinchanging Mormont’s raven and instead skinchanges …

Sam was reading about the Others when he saw the mouse.
His eyes were red and raw. I ought not rub them so much, he always told himself as he rubbed them. (aFfC, Samwell I)

A mouse!

Shadrich mad mouse by John Jennette
Shadrich’s personal arms, by John Jennette

The idea that the mouse in Samwell’s library may be skinchanged is not new. Plenty of people who are on a reread, at least wonder about it for the two first sentences in Samwell’s first chapter of aFfC. A few of those raise the question on the internet. And a rare person will claim that the children of the forest and Bloodraven are skinchanging mice in Castle Black’s library to destroy the information it has about the Others. But overall the question whether that mouse is being skinchanged that very moment is quickly laid to rest again.

Firstly, yes, George wants you to consider the possibility that the mouse is being skinchanged. Those first two sentences contain attention grabbers: mention about the Others and red eyes, and when you are on a reread you remember also some Mad Mouse character in Brienne’s and Sansa’s arc. The truth is that the mouse’s eyes are not actually red. Samwell’s eyes are. He was reading in a dusty moldy library for hours on end. Nevertheless George sure managed to grab your attention and make you wonder. At the very least, George made you reread those two opening sentences twice.

The reasons for the reader to dismiss the skinchanging idea of the mouse so quickly are:

  • It is just a grey mouse with black eyes.
  • Nothing eventful seems to take place. All the mouse does is feast on Sam’s leftovers of bread and cheese. It does not point Sam to an important revealing passage about defeating the Others, or even a particular book full of forgotten lore. No, nothing of that sort occurs. Sam does not even succeed in squashing it with a book: the mouse escapes.
  • Bloodraven is already skinchanging Mormont’s raven in Jon’s solar, screaming “No!” and “Die” and reading Jon’s paper shield when Sam enters the solar, and Bloodraven cannot skinchange two animals at once.

The first reason for dismissal is based on an erroneous self invented rule. Summer and Mormont’s raven are not albinos, and are nevertheless skinchanged. The white-red coloring is more a symbol of alignment or association to weirwoods and Bloodraven, rather than evidence on skinchanging itself. This alignment may be done through suggestion rather than actual coloring, and George does make the suggestion in those two first sentences. More, George has tied mice often with skinchangers before. Arya thinks of herself as a mouse at Harrenhal, and Arya is a skinchanger. Sansa too is called a mouse twice. Her skinchanging abilities are not developed, but George has confirmed that she is. Varamyr is referred to look like a mouse. And then of course we have Shadrich of the Shady Glenn referring to himself as the Mad Mouse who does carry personal arms with a white mouse and red eyes, as cocksure as if he was the knight of the laughing tree. (see Shadrich, Morgarth and Byron by Blue-Eyed-Wolf). Victarion refers to maester Kerwin of Greenshield a mouse as well.

 “Could that mouse of a maester be doing this? Maesters know spells and other tricks. He might be using one to poison me, hoping I will let him cut my hand off.” The more he thought on it, the more likely it seemed. “The Crow’s Eye gave him to me, wretched creature that he is.” Euron had taken Kerwin off Greenshield, where he had been in service to Lord Chester, tending his ravens and teaching his children, or perhaps the other away around. (aDwD, The Iron Suitor)

This particular mouse’s fate and treatment by the Ironborn is abominable – he is raped by sailors and eventually killed by Victarion because he failed to heal Vic’s gangrenous wound. Though of course Kerwin as maester is unlikely to have been a skinchanger or even someone who prayed to the old gods, it should be noted that the castle he served, Greenshield, is an allusion to a location protected by “green” magic, where ravens and children (of the forest) live.

The third reason assumes wrongly that Bloodraven must be skinchanging Mormont’s raven the whole time. I pointed out that the raven is suspiciously silent almost throughout Jon’s meeting with Gilly, which includes several opportunities to cry “Die” far earlier and a lengthy scene of Gilly holding her hand above a flame. Bloodraven could indeed exit Mormont’s raven and skinchange the mouse for a short while to accomplish his intent and return to the skin of Mormont’s raven.

The second reason for dismissal is all about motive. Like Sam we regard a library as a potential treasure trove of secret information. We hope and, for trope reasons, expect Sam to discover the crucial secret about the Others and the Wall in a book. So, if Bloodraven is going to bother with skinchanging any animal in the library it must be either to lead Sam to such a discovery or obstruct him. Since the first obviously does not happen, and we are regularly reminded on how mice nibble at books in the library, the theorized motive for skinchanging whenever the mouse is brought up on forums or reddit becomes obstructing Sam in finding out the truth.

The mouse was half as long as his pinky finger, with black eyes and soft grey fur. Sam knew he ought to kill it. Mice might prefer bread and cheese, but they ate paper too. He had found plenty of mouse droppings amongst the shelves and stacks, and some of the leather covers on the books showed signs of being gnawed. It is such a little thing, though. And hungry. How could he begrudge it a few crumbs? It’s eating books, though . . . (aFfC, Samwell I)

And while some readers have come to believe this as a motive for skinchanging mice in general at Castle Black, it clashes for this mouse in question. If Jon’s exchange with Gilly is so crucial to Bloodraven, he did not just think to himself, “Oh well I’ll have a nibble at some books while I’m at it. This is getting boring.” And if that was indeed his plan, he ended up doing the opposite: exposing himself to Sam and nearly gets the mouse killed. Of course, the counter argument to the idea that the children of the forest and Bloodraven are skinchanging mice to gnaw at books in their spare time is that mice will do this anyhow. There is no need to skinchange mice for mice to do mice-things.

Given the subject at hand in Jon’s solar at the time, Bloodraven’s motive is crucial. I propose that Bloodraven hopes to get to Sam in the library before Dolorous Edd, and have him leave his books so that he bumbles into Jon’s meeting with Gilly and can be her ally against Jon’s bullying. Sam is such a book lover that he forgets all about time and space, and even food. Not that many events can draw Sam’s attention away from books. Only that which destroys books could: fire or mice. And there are plenty of mice that can be skinchanged in the library. Mice are not bold creatures that go near humans and eat their food by candle light right under their nose. That particular mouse must be either mad because of toxoplasmosis or it is being skinchanged.

Samwell Tarly and the mouse, by Colin Boyer

The motive I propose is exactly what the mouse achieves:  it draws Sam’s attention, away from reading. He actually stops reading, for the very first time in hours and hours.

One more book, he had told himself, then I’ll stop. One more folio, just one more. One more page, then I’ll go up and rest and get a bite to eat. But there was always another page after that one, and another after that, and another book waiting underneath the pile. I’ll just take a quick peek to see what this one is about, he’d think, and before he knew he would be halfway through it. He had not eaten since that bowl of bean-and-bacon soup with Pyp and Grenn. Well, except for the bread and cheese, but that was only a nibble, he thought. That was when he took a quick glance at the empty platter, and spied the mouse feasting on the bread crumbs. (aFfC, Samwell I)

Take note that the mouse is said to feast in the first chapter, after the prologue, of a book called A Feast for Crows. If the mouse is being skinchanged by Bloodraven in this moment, a three-eyed-crow is feasting.

This may seem a non-event to you, but in Sam’s case it is a huge feat. Sam does not just stop reading. The mouse makes him move.

After hours in the chair Sam’s back was stiff as a board, and his legs were half-asleep. He knew he was not quick enough to catch the mouse, but it might be he could squash it. By his elbow rested a massive leather-bound copy of Annals of the Black Centaur, Septon Jorquen’s exhaustively detailed account of the nine years that Orbert Caswell had served as Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch. […] No mouse is a match for Septon Jorquen. Very slowly, Sam took hold of the book with his left hand.  It was thick and heavy, and when he tried to lift it one-handed, it slipped from his plump fingers and thumped back down. The mouse was gone in half a heartbeat, skittery-quick. (aFfC, Samwell I)

And then Sam becomes aware of time and actually gets up. He decides to leave the library.

He was surprised at how low the candle had burned. Had the bean-and-bacon soup been today or yesterday? Yesterday. It must have been yesterday. The realization made him yawn. Jon would be wondering what had become of him, though Maester Aemon would no doubt understand. […] Pushing himself to his feet, Sam grimaced at the pins and needles in his calves. (aFfC, Samwell I)

Sam is already back up at the yard from the library when he runs into Dolorous Edd who was sent by Jon to fetch him.

“Samwell,” said a glum voice, “I was coming to fetch you. I was told to bring you to the Lord Commander.”
A snowflake landed on Sam’s nose. “Jon wants to see me?”
“As to that, I could not say,” said Dolorous Edd Tollett. “I never wanted to see half the things I’ve seen, and I’ve never seen half the things I wanted to. I don’t think wanting comes into it. You’d best go all the same. Lord Snow wishes to speak with you as soon as he is done with Craster’s wife.”
“Gilly.”
“That’s the one. If my wet nurse had looked like her, I’d still be on the teat. Mine had whiskers.”
“Most goats do,” called Pyp, as he and Grenn emerged from around the corner, with longbows in hand and quivers of arrows on their backs. “Where have you been, Slayer? We missed you last night at supper. A whole roast ox went uneaten.”
“Don’t call me Slayer.” Sam ignored the gibe about the ox. That was just Pyp. “I was reading. There was a mouse . . .” (aFfC, Samwell |)

So, if Bloodraven skinchanged the mouse to get Samwell moving quick enough to interrupt Jon’s meeting with Gilly, he had succeeded initially. He could however not account for Pyp and Grenn wanting to make conversation with Samwell over nothing of importance, despite Sam’s protests and insistence that he must see Jon. Unfortunately, Pyp delayed Sam so that he arrives at Jon’s solar just as Gilly leaves.

“I don’t have time for this.” Sam left his friends and made his way toward the armory, clutching his books to his chest. […] Gilly was leaving as Sam arrived, wrapped up in the old cloak he’d given her when they were fleeing Craster’s Keep. She almost rushed right past him, but Sam caught her arm, spilling two books as he did. (aFfC, Samwell I)

In other words, if Sam had not been delayed by Pyp, Grenn and Edd, he would have stumbled into the meeting before Jon could bully Gilly into silence on the subject.

Saving a Son?

It seems reasonable to assume that Bloodraven is against the swapping of the babes, because of the team effort in saving Sam, Gilly and her son from the wights at the not-Whitetree village.

“A mother can’t leave her son, or else she’s cursed forever. Not a son. We saved him, Sam and me. Please. Please, m’lord. We saved him from the cold.” (aDwD, Jon II)

Bloodraven has been involved in the business of saving Sam, Gilly and her son, since the mutiny.

“The girl don’t lie,” the old woman on the right said. “She’s my girl, and I beat the lying out of her early on. You said you’d help her. Do what Ferny says, boy. Take the girl and be quick about it.”
“Quick,” the raven said. “Quick quick quick.” (aSoS, Samwell II)

Then when Samwell and Gilly arrived at the anonymous village north of the Wall, Sam prays to the Old gods in front of a weirwood.

[Samwell] turned back to the weirwood and studied the carved face a moment. It is not the face we saw, he admitted to himself. The tree’s not half as big as the one at Whitetree. The red eyes wept blood, and he didn’t remember that either. Clumsily, Sam sank to his knees. “Old gods, hear my prayer. The Seven were my father’s gods but I said my words to you when I joined the Watch. Help us now. I fear we might be lost. We’re hungry too, and so cold. I don’t know what gods I believe in now, but . . . please, if you’re there, help us. Gilly has a little son.” That was all that he could think to say. The dusk was deepening, the leaves of the weirwood rustling softly, waving like a thousand blood-red hands. Whether Jon’s gods had heard him or not he could not say. (aSoS, Samwell III)

In this manner, Sam let Bloodraven know his position and whereabouts, and sends Coldhands to the village so that he can accompany Sam to the Black Gate for when Bran arrives there and must pass the Wall. But wights find them first.

“He’s come for the babe,” Gilly wept. “He smells him. A babe fresh-born stinks o’ life. He’s come for the life.” (aSoS, Samwell III)

The wight though has a raven for a companion that tries to peck and strip him, as Sam fights him.

Hoarfrost whitened [Small Paul’s] beard, and on one shoulder hunched a raven, pecking at his cheek, eating the dead white flesh. […] The raven on his shoulder ripped a strip of flesh from his pale ruined cheek. […] Samwell Tarly threw himself forward and plunged the dagger down into Small Paul’s back. Half-turned, the wight never saw him coming. The raven gave a shriek and took to the air. […]  The wight was burning, hoarfrost dripping from his beard as the flesh beneath blackened. Sam heard the raven shriek, but Paul himself made no sound. (aSoS, Samwell III)

That raven should be regarded as a scout or outflyer from Coldhands. Small Paul was not the only wight. There were more, outside. And both Coldhands and Bloodraven united all ravens as a vanguard to attack the wights, until Coldhands could rescue them/

alec-acevedo-got-ravens-11x17
Weirwood Ravens, by Alec Acevedo

She stood with her back against the weirwood, the boy in her arms. The wights were all around her. There were a dozen of them, a score, more . . . some had been wildlings once, and still wore skins and hides . . . but more had been his brothers. Sam saw Lark the Sisterman, Softfoot, Ryles. The wen on Chett’s neck was black, his boils covered with a thin film of ice. And that one looked like Hake, though it was hard to know for certain with half his head missing. They had torn the poor garron apart, and were pulling out her entrails with dripping red hands. Pale steam rose from her belly. Sam made a whimpery sound. “It’s not fair . . .” (aSoS, Samwell III)

At this point Bloodraven speaks to Sam via raven and a large murder of ravens descend on the wights.

“Fair.” The raven landed on his shoulder. “Fair, far, fear.” It flapped its wings, and screamed along with Gilly. The wights were almost on her. He heard the dark red leaves of the weirwood rustling, whispering to one another in a tongue he did not know. The starlight itself seemed to stir, and all around them the trees groaned and creaked. Sam Tarly turned the color of curdled milk, and his eyes went wide as plates. Ravens! They were in the weirwood, hundreds of them, thousands, perched on the bone-white branches, peering between the leaves. He saw their beaks open as they screamed, saw them spread their black wings. Shrieking, flapping, they descended on the wights in angry clouds. They swarmed round Chett’s face and pecked at his blue eyes, they covered the Sisterman like flies, they plucked gobbets from inside Hake’s shattered head. There were so many that when Sam looked up, he could not see the moon. “Go,” said the bird on his shoulder. “Go, go, go.”
Sam ran, puffs of frost exploding from his mouth. All around him the wights flailed at the black wings and sharp beaks that assailed them, falling in an eerie silence with never a grunt nor cry. But the ravens ignored Sam. He took Gilly by the hand and pulled her away from the weirwood. “We have to go.” (aSoS, Samwell III)

Sam realizes that words are whispered in a language unknown to him, which is either the Old Tongue of the First Men or the True Tongue of the children of the forest. Though Bloodraven is referred to as the “last greenseer” by the children of the forest, he is not the sole one in the cave. Bran sees plenty of singers on greenseer thrones.

He even crossed the slender stone bridge that arched over the abyss and discovered more passages and chambers on the far side. One was full of singers, enthroned like Brynden in nests of weirwood roots that wove under and through and around their bodies. Most of them looked dead to him, but as he crossed in front of them their eyes would open and follow the light of his torch, and one of them opened and closed a wrinkled mouth as if he were trying to speak. (aDwD, Bran III)

This means that all the skinchangers and greenseers of Bloodraven’s cave were involved in the effort to keep a true Black brother alive as well as Gilly and her son, until Coldhands arrived.

“Brother!” The shout cut through the night, through the shrieks of a thousand ravens. Beneath the trees, a man muffled head to heels in mottled blacks and greys sat astride an elk. “Here,” the rider called. A hood shadowed his face. He’s wearing blacks. Sam urged Gilly toward him. The elk was huge, a great elk, ten feet tall at the shoulder, with a rack of antlers near as wide. The creature sank to his knees to let them mount. “Here,” the rider said, reaching down with a gloved hand to pull Gilly up behind him.
Then it was Sam’s turn. “My thanks,” he puffed. Only when he grasped the offered hand did he realize that the rider wore no glove. His hand was black and cold, with fingers hard as stone. (aSoS, Samwell III)

Bloodraven and Coldhands did not save them just because Sam prayed to them, but because he needed Sam to open the Black Gate for Bran so that he could escort him to Bloodraven.

“From Craster’s,” the girl said. “Are you the one?”
Jojen turned to look at her. “The one?”
“He said that Sam wasn’t the one,” she explained. “There was someone else, he said. The one he was sent to find.”
“Who said?” Bran demanded.
“Coldhands,” Gilly answered softly.
Meera peeled back one end of her net, and the fat man managed to sit up. He was shaking, Bran saw, and still struggling to catch his breath. “He said there would be people,” he huffed. “People in the castle. I didn’t know you’d be right at the top of the steps, though. I didn’t know you’d throw a net on me or stab me in the stomach.” He touched his belly with a black-gloved hand. “Am I bleeding? I can’t see.” (aSoS, Bran IV)

It is important to take note of the fact that the night when Sam arrives at the Nightfort is not the same night he was rescued by Coldhands from the wights at the village. There was a full moon the night at the village and a half-moon at the Nightfort, which would be a third quarter half-moon. The two chapters are about a week apart. Since Sam arrives at the Nightfort on the first night of Bran’s arrival there, this means that Bloodraven had foreseen Bran would be there, before he had arrived, and likely even had foreseen that Sam would be the man to help Bran through the Black Gate.

“You won’t find it. If you did it wouldn’t open. Not for you. It’s the Black Gate.” Sam plucked at the faded black wool of his sleeve. “Only a man of the Night’s Watch can open it, he said. A Sworn Brother who has said his words.”
“He said.” Jojen frowned. “This . . .Coldhands?”
“That wasn’t his true name,” said Gilly, rocking. “We only called him that, Sam and me. His hands were cold as ice, but he saved us from the dead men, him and his ravens, and he brought us here on his elk.” (aSoS, Bran IV)

So, close inspection does not warrant the assumption that Bloodraven wishes to save the baby in particular. By the time that Bloodraven sent Sam on his way with Gilly and her son from Craster’s as Mormont’s raven, all the other true brothers of the Night’s Watch had already fled Craster’s and went straight for Castle Black. Meanwhile it was in evidence that Sam needed Gilly and the baby for courage and will to get to the Wall, to survive. Even Gilly points out that the wights came for fresh-life, not necessarily because he is Craster’s son. And in From Sandkings to Nightqueens I show all the evidence and reasoning that babies serve as meat for the Mother of the Others, instead of the imho the flawed theory that Craster’s sons are Otherized. And if babies are meat, then it matters little to the Others whether that meat is Craster’s or Mance’s.

When Mormont’s raven shrieks die four times during Jon’s meeting with Gilly that seems quite a bit excessive to foretell the death of just one baby. It is an indication that Bloodraven foresees a lot of death. Take for instance the scene when Jeor Mormont announces his decision to seek the confrontation with Mance’s united army of wildlings to the men of the Night’s Watch at the Fist of the First Men, Mormont’s raven cries die four times plus.

“We’ll die.” That was Maslyn’s voice, green with fear.
“Die,” screamed Mormont’s raven, flapping its black wings. “Die, die, die.”
“Many of us,” the Old Bear said. “Mayhaps even all of us. But as another Lord Commander said a thousand years ago, that is why they dress us in black. Remember your words, brothers. For we are the swords in the darkness, the watchers on the walls . . .”
[…]
When the shouting died away, once more he heard the sound of the wind picking at the ringwall. The flames swirled and shivered, as if they too were cold, and in the sudden quiet the Old Bear’s raven cawed loudly and once again said, “Die.” (aSoS, Prologue)

He says die five times too when Jeor realizes they must turn the Fist into a fortress to slow or halt Mance’s army and tells Qhorin to pick his men to scout.

“Belike we shall all die, then. Our dying will buy time for our brothers on the Wall. Time to garrison the empty castles and freeze shut the gates, time to summon lords and kings to their aid, time to hone their axes and repair their catapults. Our lives will be coin well spent.”
“Die,” the raven muttered, pacing along Mormont’s shoulders. “Die, die, die, die.” The Old Bear sat slumped and silent, as if the burden of speech had grown too heavy for him to bear. But at last he said, “May the gods forgive me. Choose your men.”
Qhorin Halfhand turned his head. His eyes met Jon’s, and held them for a long moment. “Very well. I choose Jon Snow.” (aCoK, Jon V)

Four times die is slightly less than five times. About 270 brothers died on Jeor’s great ranging, including the scouts in the Frostfangs and those killed during the mutiny at Craster’s, aside from those who died at the Fist. So, we can roughly conclude that Bloodraven foresees about 200 deaths, as a consequence of the swap. So, this is about something bigger than saving a baby’s life, let alone out of some sentiment of having saved him in the past.

The Shield

Since, I propose that Bloodraven skinchanged the mouse in the hope to have Sam interrupt Jon’s meeting with Gilly, it stands to reason that Mormont’s raven would try to signal something to Sam upon his arrival. And this should give us a better understanding. As it turns out, when Sam enters the solar, we instantly are bombarded with plenty of action by Mormont’s raven.

[…] when the bird spied Sam it spread its wings and flapped toward him crying, “Corn, corn!”
Shifting the books, Sam thrust his arm into the sack beside the door and came out with a handful of kernels. The raven landed on his wrist and took one from his palm, pecking so hard that Sam yelped and snatched his hand back. The raven took to the air again, and yellow and red kernels went everywhere.
“Close the door, Sam.” Faint scars still marked Jon’s cheek, where an eagle had once tried to rip his eye out. “Did that wretch break the skin?”
Sam eased the books down and peeled off his glove. “He did.” He felt faint. “I’m bleeding.” (aFfC, Samwell I)

The raven spies Sam, flaps towards him and cries for corn. As Samwell takes out kernels of corn and opens his hand to the raven, he pecks so hard he pierces Sam’s glove and skin, drawing blood. With the demand for corn, we are inclined to think of it just being a raven in this instance. But this is negated by the raven purposefully reading the parchment from Jon’s shoulder. Furthermore, pecking so hard that he makes Sam bleed is  unprecedented. The worst he has done before was shit on Jeor’s shoulders when Jeor was eating Craster’s questionable breakfast. So, yes, the raven is being skinchanged by Bloodraven in this instance.

A possible explanation might be that Bloodraven was upset with Sam’s tardiness and wanted to punish him. However, once we add the raven’s response to Jon’s statement about the power of blood once he’s done eating the corn, this becomes quite unlikely.

“Pyp should learn to hold his tongue. I have heard the same from others. King’s blood, to wake a dragon. Where Melisandre thinks to find a sleeping dragon, no one is quite sure. It’s nonsense. Mance’s blood is no more royal than mine own. He has never worn a crown nor sat a throne. He’s a brigand, nothing more. There’s no power in brigand’s blood.”
The raven looked up from the floor. “Blood,” it screamed. (aFfC, Samwell I)

Instead, I propose that Bloodraven was using the raven to reenact a particular blood magic. In this practice the palm is cut. We already know a certain brigand who cut his palm and used his blood to set his sword aflame: Beric Dondarrion.

Unsmiling, Lord Beric laid the edge of his longsword against the palm of his left hand, and drew it slowly down. Blood ran dark from the gash he made, and washed over the steel. And then the sword took fire. (aSoS, Arya VI)

beric_dondarrion_by_loxaraz_
Beric Dondarrion, by Loxaraz

Such is the power of brigand’s blood after he was kissed by fire. Do I need to remind you that aside from having ties to R’hllor, Beric also has visual references to Bloodraven? The same visual reference that is alluded to when Sam is reminded of Jon’s scars around his eye, because Orell’s eagle tried to tear his eye out?

The walls were equal parts stone and soil, with huge white roots twisting through them like a thousand slow pale snakes. […] In one place on the far side of the fire, the roots formed a kind of stairway up to a hollow in the earth where a man sat almost lost in the tangle of weirwood. […] A scarecrow of a man, he wore a ragged black cloak speckled with stars and an iron breastplate dinted by a hundred battles. […] One of his eyes was gone, Arya saw, the flesh about the socket scarred and puckered, […] . (aSoS, Arya VI)

And when we compare how effectively Beric uses his blood to light up his common steel sword with flames, to how Mel burns a brigand (Rattleshirt) to light a fake magical sword like the sun, we can see how messed up her use of blood magic truly is.

The sword glowed red and yellow and orange, alive with light. Jon had seen the show before … but not like this, never before like this. Lightbringer was the sun made steel. When Stannis raised the blade above his head, men had to turn their heads or cover their eyes. Horses shied, and one threw his rider. The blaze in the fire pit seemed to shrink before this storm of light, like a small dog cowering before a larger one. The Wall itself turned red and pink and orange, as waves of color danced across the ice. Is this the power of king’s blood? (aDwD, Jon III)

The first uses his own fire-blood for justice, while Mel’s magic is a wasteful mummery to show off the trappings of power.

Once you remember Beric bloodying his blade with his palm it becomes quite clear that Bloodraven was trying to show such a magic use of blood to Sam and Jon when he drew Samwell’s blood and then implied that blood is powerful to Jon’s rhetorical question as Mormont’s raven. But why is it so important? And what the hell has it to do with swapping babes?

The raven gives us a hint, because prior to begging Sam for corn, he is doing something noteworthy and odd.

[Jon] was reading a parchment when Sam entered. Lord Commander Mormont’s raven was on his shoulder, peering down as if it were reading too, […] (aFfC, Samwell I)

Jon is reading Aemon’s letter meant for King’s Landing, again, and so is Bloodraven via the raven. Jon refers to the letter as a paper shield.

“We all shed our blood for the Watch. Wear thicker gloves.” Jon shoved a chair toward him with a foot. “Sit, and have a look at this.” He handed him the parchment.
“What is it?” asked Sam. The raven began to hunt out corn kernels amongst the rushes.
“A paper shield.”
Sam sucked at the blood on his palm as he read. He knew Maester Aemon’s hand on sight. His writing was small and precise, but the old man could not see where the ink had blotted, and sometimes he left unsightly smears. “A letter to King Tommen?” (aFfC, Samwell I)

Notice how both Samwell’s bleeding palm and the raven hunting the corn that flew and fell surround this mention of the paper shield. So, the shield is the heart of the matter here.

This paper shield prompts Cersei to plot the assassination of Jon. And the kernels that Mormont’s raven sent flying were the sigil colors of the Lannsters: yellow and red.

“Another problem has arisen on the Wall, however. The brothers of the Night’s Watch have taken leave of their wits and chosen Ned Stark’s bastard son to be their Lord Commander.” […] “I glimpsed him once at Winterfell,” the queen said, “though the Starks did their best to hide him. He looks very like his father.” […] Catelyn Tully was a mouse, or she would have smothered this Jon Snow in his cradle. Instead, she’s left the filthy task to me. “Snow shares Lord Eddard’s taste for treason too,” she said. “The father would have handed the realm to Stannis. The son has given him lands and castles.”
“The Night’s Watch is sworn to take no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms,” Pycelle reminded them. “For thousands of years the black brothers have upheld that tradition.”
“Until now,” said Cersei. “The bastard boy has written us to avow that the Night’s Watch takes no side, but his actions give the lie to his words. He has given Stannis food and shelter, yet has the insolence to plead with us for arms and men.” (aFfC, Cersei IV)

Notice that Cersei thinks Catelyn must be a mouse by allowing Jon to live. This seems like a reference to Samwell’s mouse that I proposed Bloodraven skinchanged to get Sam moving: mice don’t want Jon to die.

There is one issue: Cersei never managed to execute her plan, since she and her assassin Osney Kettleback both ended up arrested by the High Sparrow. Even if Cersei was victorious in her trial by combat, Osney has confessed under torture to the murder of the High Septon. Kevan Lannister thought of sending Osney’s brothers to the Wall for their crimes, but he was murdered by Varys before he could ever turn his unvoiced idea into a command. Was there ever time for Cersei to even send Osney’s brothers to Eastwatch? A message to friends within the Watch? I do think that Eastwatch and Cersei may have been involved in warning Bowen Marsh, but that is for another essay.

We seem to have three separate issues:

  • an assassination plot on Jon’s life
  • swapping babes
  • blood magic in the spirit that Beric used it

And yet, all are tied together.

When we look to the paragraphs and sentences shortly before we are told that Jon and Mormont’s raven are reading the parchment, the paper shield, the word shield is mentioned several times in a short span of text.

“I don’t have time for this.” Sam left his friends and made his way toward the armory, clutching his books to his chest.I am the shield that guards the realms of men, he remembered. He wondered what those men would say if they realized their realms were being guarded by the likes of Grenn, Pyp, and Dolorous Edd.
[…]
Jon’s solar was back beyond the racks of spears and shields. He was reading a [paper shield] when Sam entered. Lord Commander Mormont’s raven was on his shoulder, peering down as if it were reading too, when the bird spied Sam it spread its wings and flapped toward him crying, “Corn, corn!” (aFfC, Samwell I)

the Wall_by Mathias Habert
The Wall, by Mathias Habert

The blood magic that Mormont’s raven reenacted has to do with a shield. And the shield that guards the realms of men is not just a physical wall, but a magical warding spell. And in fact, right after Mormont’s raven drew blood of Sam’s palm, Jon tells Sam, “Close the door“!

The paper shield is a great analogy to the warding spell. The medium on which the words are written is not the shield; the words written on it are. And spells are words too.

Melisandre touched the ruby at her neck and spoke a word. The sound echoed queerly from the corners of the room and twisted like a worm inside their ears. The wildling heard one word, the crow another. Neither was the word that left her lips. (aDwD, Melisandre I)

When it comes to warding spells, we know of three confirmed locations being protected by such: Bloodraven’s cave, Storm’s End and the Wall.

“There was no need,” she said. “[Renly] was unprotected. But here . . . this Storm’s End is an old place. There are spells woven into the stones. Dark walls that no shadow can pass—ancient, forgotten, yet still in place.” (aCoK, Davos II)

“The Wall. The Wall is more than just ice and stone, he said. There are spells woven into it . . . old ones, and strong. He cannot pass beyond the Wall.” (aSoS, Bran IV)

The ward upon the cave mouth still held; the dead men could not enter. (aDwD, Bran III)

The last two locations and constructions are ascribed to both children of the forest and Brandon the Builder.

A seventh castle [Durran] raised, most massive of all. Some said the children of the forest helped him build it, shaping the stones with magic; others claimed that a small boy told him what he must do, a boy who would grow to be Bran the Builder. No matter how the tale was told, the end was the same. Though the angry gods threw storm after storm against it, the seventh castle stood defiant, and Durran Godsgrief and fair Elenei dwelt there together until the end of their days. (aCoK, Catelyn III)

With Storm’s End, Catelyn presents the help Durran received to build the protective walls as an either or choice of what you believe: children of the forest or Brandon the Builder. Something similar occurs with the legends on the raising of the Wall. For the Wall though, it is portrayed as a cooperation between Brandon the Builder and the children of the forest, with the first as the architect of the physical wall, and the later get credited for weaving magic into the construction.

Maester Childer’s Winter’s Kings, or the Legends and Lineages of the Starks of Winterfell contains a part of a ballad alleged to tell of the time Brandon the Builder sought the aid of the children while raising the Wall. (tWoIaF – Ancient History: The Dawn Age)

Legend has it that the giants helped raise the Wall, using their great strength to wrestle the blocks of ice into place. There may be some truth to this though the stories make the giants out to be far larger and more powerful than they truly were. These same legends also say that the children of the forest—who did not themselves build walls of either ice or stone—would contribute their magic to the construction. (tWoIaF – The Wall and Beyond: The Night’s Watch)

The ward on Bloodraven’s cave affirms this is a magic that originates from the children of the forest. It is their spell. This notion of Brandon the Builder as architect, however, can be easily disproven by Winterfell, yet another construction ascribed to him: Winterfell’s grounds were never leveled.

It taught him Winterfell’s secrets too. The builders had not even leveled the earth; there were hills and valleys behind the walls of Winterfell. (aGoT, Bran II)

Any actual architect would have leveled the ground. And if we compare the oldest constructions of Winterfell to the Storm’s End, the Hightower (also ascribed to Brandon) and the Wall, we would have a boy genius for Storm’s End (and the Hightower), but is not even a mediocre architect when he built his own home. If Brandon the Builder was not an architect, he helped in raising the magical ward that the children of the forest cast. One of the legends claims that Brandon the Builder learned the language of the children of the forest, “which was described as sounding like the song of stones in a brook, or the wind through leaves, or the rain upon the water.” Bran’s mentions of the True Tongue (the language of the children of the forest) makes it doubtful that any human can actually learn to speak it, let alone their spells. Bloodraven is a human and has been the sole human amongst the children of the forest for decades in the cave, and apparently cannot speak it either.

I propose that Brandon’s contribution was that of blood magic: the children of the forest said the words, while Brandon the Builder cut the palm of his hand and sealed the spell to the stones, to the location with his blood. His ancestor Brandon of the Bloody Blade is a likely hint that The Builder knew of such blood magic. George also added “the use of a sword” in connection to the ward of Bloodraven’s cave.

“The cave is warded. They cannot pass.” The ranger used his sword to point. “You can see the entrance there. Halfway up, between the weirwoods, that cleft in the rock.” (aDwD, Bran II)

With a few exceptions, almost all magic involves some form of blood magic. While we easily consider it an evil magic where the lives of innocents (other people or children) need to be sacrificed to empower someone who sacrifices nothing, there are also examples where but a few drops of one’s own blood suffices. Maggy the Frog and the one-eyed prostitute Yna in Braavos can tell someone’s fortune with that person’s drop of blood.

Matt_Olson_Maggy_Maegi
Maggy the Frog, by Matt Olson

“Maegi?”
“Is that how you say it? The woman would suck a drop of blood from your finger, and tell you what your morrows held.”
“Blood magic is the darkest kind of sorcery. Some say it is the most powerful as well.” (aFfC, Cersei VIII)

[Merry’s] girls were nice as well; Blushing Bethany and the Sailor’s Wife, one-eyed Yna who could tell your fortune from a drop of blood, […] (aFfC, Cat of the Canals)

Notice how Yna has the one-eyed connotation to Bloodraven. Maggy the Frog may have Essosi origin, but the nickname “the frog” and her green tent, link her to green magic as well. So, it is entirely possible that Brandon the Builder could fixate the warding spell to a particular location by slashing his palm and allow drops of blood to fall on a stone foundation.

Since Bloodraven is inside a cave warded by the same spell as the Wall or Storm’s End, he likely has first hand knowledge how this blood magic works. He might have done the exact same blood letting of his own palm with his Dark Sister when the children of the forest warded the cave. Hence as Mormont’s raven he tries to reveal this to Samwell and Jon.

Note: Jon’s chapter of his meeting with Samwell leaves out most of these hints. Jon is unaware that Mormont’s raven is reading the paper shield along with him. And the chapter leaves out the exact words Jon says when the raven cries “Blood”.

Samwell Tarly turned up a few moments later, clutching a stack of books. No sooner had he entered than Mormont’s raven flew at him demanding corn. Sam did his best to oblige, offering some kernels from the sack beside the door. The raven did its best to peck through his palm. Sam yowled, the bird flapped off, corn scattered. “Did that wretch break the skin?” Jon asked. […] “Val sent her to plead for Mance again,” Jon lied, and they talked for a while of Mance and Stannis and Melisandre of Asshai, until the raven ate the last corn kernel and screamed, “Blood.” (aDwD, Jon II)

So, Sam’s chapter is crucial in figuring out what the raven is about.

The Seal

I refer to this fixation with blood magic of the warding spell as a seal. This is a deliberate choice, as much of the other hints to this concept occur in relation to George’s use of that word. For example in They’re Here! I already mentioned the foreshadowing name Sealskinner. But the most glaring examples are related to parchments, or paper shields: Ramsay’s letters written in blood to Asha and Jon and Stannis’ signing of his contract with the Iron Bank with his own blood.

The paragraphs about Ramsay’s letter to Asha mention a seal, spatter of drops of blood, fluttering skin, dark wings, ravens, writing in blood, and iron.

“My lady.” The maester’s voice was anxious, as it always was when he spoke to her. “A bird from Barrowton.” He thrust the parchment at her as if he could not wait to be rid of it. It was tightly rolled and sealed with a button of hard pink wax. Barrowton. Asha tried to recall who ruled in Barrowton. Some northern lord, no friend of mine. And that seal … the Boltons of the Dreadfort went into battle beneath pink banners spattered with little drops of blood. It only stood to reason that they would use pink sealing wax as well.
This is poison that I hold, she thought. I ought to burn it. Instead she cracked the seal. A scrap of leather fluttered down into her lap. When she read the dry brown words, her black mood grew blacker still. Dark wings, dark words. The ravens never brought glad tidings. The last message sent to Deepwood had been from Stannis Baratheon, demanding homage. This was worse. “The northmen have taken Moat Cailin.” […`] the message above was scrawled in brown in a huge, spiky hand. It spoke of the fall of Moat Cailin, of the triumphant return of the Warden of the North to his domains, of a marriage soon to be made. The first words were, “I write this letter in the blood of ironmen,” the last, “I send you each a piece of prince. Linger in my lands, and share his fate.” (aDwD, The Wayward Bride)

The seal is linked to the image of spattered blood droplets. The letter is linked to skinchanging via the fluttering scrap of leather, raven wings and words. The words on the parchment are written in blood of men. And of course a parchment of written words can be equated to a paper shiel. In this case a paper shield of blood.

A seal, is a stamp or imprint identifying a person or house. It is a type of signature, or a person, for in Asha’s case a seal (animal) was a stand-in bride to Ironmaker, for a union arranged by a crow’s eye.

Asha was still at Ten Towers taking on provisions when the tidings of her marriage reached her. “My wayward niece needs taming,” the Crow’s Eye was reported to have said, “and I know the man to tame her.” He had married her to Erik Ironmaker and named the Anvil-Breaker to rule the Iron Islands whilst he was chasing dragons. […] Tris Botley said that the Crow’s Eye had used a seal to stand in for her at her wedding. “I hope Erik did not insist on a consummation,” she’d said. (aDwD, The Wayward Bride)

In the King’s Prize, we get another wordplay that links a seal to the Wall.

Asha crawled out from under her sleeping furs and pushed her way out of the tent, knocking aside the wall of snow that had sealed them in during the night. (aDwD, The King’s Prize)

Where Asha’s POV focuses on the taking of Moat Cailin, Jon’s POV focuses on Ramsay’s forthcoming marriage to Arya Stark, reminding us of the seal standing in for a person at a wedding.

Clydas thrust the parchment forward. It was tightly rolled and sealed, with a button of hard pink wax. Only the Dreadfort uses pink sealing wax. Jon ripped off his gauntlet, took the letter, cracked the seal. When he saw the signature, he forgot the battering Rattleshirt had given him. Ramsay Bolton, Lord of the Hornwood, it read, in a huge, spiky hand. The brown ink came away in flakes when Jon brushed it with his thumb. Beneath Bolton’s signature, Lord Dustin, Lady Cerwyn, and four Ryswells had appended their own marks and seals. A cruder hand had drawn the giant of House Umber. “Might we know what it says, my lord?” asked Iron Emmett.
Jon saw no reason not to tell him. “Moat Cailin is taken. The flayed corpses of the ironmen have been nailed to posts along the kingsroad. Roose Bolton summons all leal lords to Barrowton, to affirm their loyalty to the Iron Throne and celebrate his son’s wedding to …” His heart seemed to stop for a moment. (aDwD, Jon VI)

We see another interplay of these words and concepts during the war meeting with Stannis.

Candles had been placed at its corners to keep the hide from rolling up. A finger of warm wax was puddling out across the Bay of Seals, slow as a glacier.

We have a mention of a hide, and thus a reference to skinchangng. Next a finger, and a thumb is still a finger. The word wax is used, instead of blood, but since a seal can be made of wax as well as blood, here the wax stands for blood.

Finally, we witness Stannis signing his contract with the Iron Bank with his own blood.

“Your Grace,” a second voice said softly. “Pardon, but your ink has frozen.” The Braavosi, Theon knew. What was his name? Tycho… Tycho something… “Perhaps a bit of heat… ?”
“I know a quicker way.” Stannis drew his dagger. For an instant Theon thought that he meant to stab the banker. You will never get a drop of blood from that one, my lord, he might have told him. The king laid the blade of the knife against the ball of his left thumb, and slashed. “There. I will sign in mine own blood. That ought to make your masters happy.”
“If it please Your Grace, it will please the Iron Bank.”
Stannis dipped a quill in the blood welling from his thumb and scratched his name across the piece of parchment. (tWoW, Theon I)

So, George is showing us repeatedly how (paper) shields get signed or sealed with drops of blood. Notice too, how iron is also mentioned in combination with this: Ironmen, Iron Emmett or Iron Bank. This implies that Brandon the Builder used an iron sword (and not a bronze one) to cut his palm or thumb to draw blood and seal the warding spell for the Wall. And yes, there are often hints of foreshadowing to the “breaking” or “cracking” of this seal as well as Jon coming to harm.

We also have numerous mentions of walls mixed with blood or built on blood. So, George has connected the concept of building with blood and walls.

Arya remembered Old Nan’s stories of the castle built on fear. Harren the Black had mixed human blood in the mortar, Nan used to say, dropping her voice so the children would need to lean close to hear, but Aegon’s dragons had roasted Harren and all his sons within their great walls of stone.  (aCoK, Arya VI)

“Bricks and blood built Astapor,” Whitebeard murmured at her side, “and bricks and blood her people.” […] “An old rhyme a maester taught me, when I was a boy. I never knew how true it was. The bricks of Astapor are red with the blood of the slaves who make them.” (aSoS, Daenerys II)

Of course, in the case of Harren the Black and the masters of Astapor it is the blood of other people that built those walls: the evil of slavery and murder. That is as evil as Ramsay writing letters with the blood of his prisoners of war. The Blood Seal instead is like Stannis writing his signature with his own blood from his thumb. Regardless, Ygritte tells Jon and us the reader that the Wall is made of blood.

“I hate this Wall,” she said in a low angry voice. “Can you feel how cold it is?”
“It’s made of ice,” Jon pointed out.
“You know nothing, Jon Snow. This wall is made o’ blood.” (aSoS, Jon IV)

The Ward

While I have shown just a few of the many examples of hints to this Blood Seal of the ward of the Wall, you probably are still wondering how this connects to Jon wanting to swap the two babes. Just as the flying yellow and red kernels of corn after reading the paper shield foreshadows an assassination attempt on Jon’s life for the Lannister side, I think Bloodraven foresaw that somehow the swapping of the two babies would lead to the writing and sending of the Pink Letter. But the Pink Letter and the assassination plot itself are for another essay within the Blood Seal Thesis. Instead, I will focus here on a more symbolical connection between the baby swap and the Blood Seal. Instead of focusing on the fate of Craster’s son, perhaps we should consider Mance’s son.

Jon thinks that Mel wants to burn Mance for his king’s blood and will burn his son for the same reason. This is his motivation to swap the babes. But Mel has already decided to see whether Mance is a man worth saving, after Jon argued for his life to Stannis and the latter has admitted that Mance has value to him.

“I would hope the truth would please you, Sire. Your men call Val a princess, but to the free folk she is only the sister of their king’s dead wife. If you force her to marry a man she does not want, she is like to slit his throat on their wedding night. Even if she accepts her husband, that does not mean the wildlings will follow him, or you. The only man who can bind them to your cause is Mance Rayder.”
“I know that,” Stannis said, unhappily. “I have spent hours speaking with the man. He knows much and more of our true enemy, and there is cunning in him, I’ll grant you. Even if he were to renounce his kingship, though, the man remains an oathbreaker. Suffer one deserter to live, and you encourage others to desert. No. Laws should be made of iron, not of pudding. Mance Rayder’s life is forfeit by every law of the Seven Kingdoms.”
“The law ends at the Wall, Your Grace. You could make good use of Mance.” (aDwD, Jon I)

At the end of the meeting between Stannis and Jon, Melisandre announces she will walk Jon to his quarters, and tells him she will counsel the flames on his character.

As they stepped out into the yard, the wind filled Jon’s cloak and sent it flapping against her. The red priestess brushed the black wool aside and slipped her arm through his. “It may be that you are not wrong about the wildling king. I shall pray for the Lord of Light to send me guidance. When I gaze into the flames, I can see through stone and earth, and find the truth within men’s souls. I can speak to kings long dead and children not yet born, and watch the years and seasons flicker past, until the end of days.” (aDwD, Jon I)

And she did, for she had Rattleshirt burned instead of Mance. So, what does Melisandre have to say about Mance’s son (despite her knowing he is actually Gilly’s son)?

“Our false king has a prickly manner,” Melisandre told Jon Snow, “but he will not betray you. We hold his son, remember. […]” (aDwD, Melisandre I)

“Monster?”
“His milk name. I had to call him something. See that he stays safe and warm. For his mother’s sake, and mine. And keep him away from the redwoman. She knows who he is. She sees things in her fires.” (aDwD, Jon VIII)

Mel uses and considers the baby a hostage for Mance’s good behavior. And what are hostages referred to as well?

“[…] So I insisted upon hostages.” I am not the trusting fool you take me for … nor am I half wildling, no matter what you believe. “One hundred boys between the ages of eight and sixteen. A son from each of their chiefs and captains, the rest chosen by lot. The boys will serve as pages and squires, freeing our own men for other duties. Some may choose to take the black one day. Queerer things have happened. The rest will stand hostage for the loyalty of their sires.”
The northmen glanced at one another. “Hostages,” mused The Norrey. “Tormund has agreed to this?”
It was that, or watch his people die. “My blood price, he called it,” said Jon Snow, “but he will pay.”
“Aye, and why not?” Old Flint stomped his cane against the ice. “Wards, we always called them, when Winterfell demanded boys of us, but they were hostages, and none the worse for it.” (aDwD, Jon XI)

That’s right! Hostages are wards! And in this instance the wards are a blood price – yet another reference for the magical ward to blood magic. But what happens if you send wards away instead of keeping them close as hostage? Robb sent his ward Theon back to the Iron Islands. And that backfired immensely.

So, when Bloodraven learned of Jon’s plan to swap Gilly’s son for Mance’s and send his hostage away, he foresaw the breaking of the Blood Seal on the magical ward as a result of the assassination attempt on Jon’s life after the arrival of the Pink Letter. That is why he screamed, “No,” warned for mass death, and tried to show Samwell how the magical ward is locked in place by the Blood Seal.

Conclusion (tl;tr)

In aFfC, Samwell I and aDwD, Jon II, Mormont’s raven acts out in an unprecedented manner and strongly opposes Jon’s plan to swap the babes. This is enough to support the assumption that Mormont’s raven is being skinchanged by Bloodraven in these scenes.

To make sense out of it, we should first start with Jon II and notice that the raven is suspiciously silent in between its strong opposition of Jon’s plan to swap Gilly’s son for Mance’s and its ominous foreshadowing of mass death because of it. The raven’s silence is long enough to allow for Bloodraven skinchanging a mouse in the library to draw the attention of a book lover’s greatest fear in Samwell I. And indeed, Samwell’s attention is finally not focused on books anymore, and he decides to leave the library, well before Dolorous Edd could get down there. And had Pyp, Grenn and Edd not delayed Sam in the yard, he may well have stumbled into Jon’s meeting with Gilly. As allies both would have had the courage to stand up against Jon’s bullying.

Despite, Bloodraven’s and Sam’s efforts, he arrived a moment too late. Upon entering Jon’s office, Mormont’s raven is ostensibly reading Jon’s shield of words (paper shield) to King Tommen, before he pecks through Samwell’s gloves to bloody his palm and points out that blood is the necessary ingredient for blood magic.

This is the Blood Seal reenactment, and how the spell for a magical ward cast by the children of the forest is sealed: cutting the palm or thumb and seal the spell of words in the True Tongue to stone with the droplets of blood. There are a multitude of references to this shield of words and blood seal, via Ramsay’s letters to Asha and Jon after Moat Cailin falls, and Stannis signing his contract with the Iron Bank with the blood from a cut he made in his thumb.

In other words, They’re Here! argues the foreshadowed end result, point B – the assassination attempt on Jon’s life breaks this Blood Seal of the magical ward of the Wall and the Others that are present can raise an army of wights from the lichyard because of it. And the events that lead to point B is the swapping of the babes. The two synched chapters of Samwell and Jon are point A. How we get from A to B is for another essay.

They’re Here!

“You close it good and tight. They’re coming, crow.” He smiled as ugly a smile as Jon had ever seen and made his way to the gate. The boar stalked after him. The falling snow covered up their tracks behind them.. (aDwD, Jon XII)

While there are variations and disagreements on many particulars on what follows after the assassination attempt on Jon’s life, there tends to be one consensus amongst the readers: the Others are chilling far away from the Wall for now.

Index

An Illusion of Time

George actively aims to lull the reader into believing there is time before the Others will finally come knocking, by having Jon himself misread or underestimate the signs of their near presence; by having Jon plan an overland trek to Hardhome. He also created an expectation with the readers via the attack on the Fist of the First Men in aSoS and Mel’s vision of Hardhome that when the Others do arrive at the Wall, they will do so with a full force of perhaps ten thousand wights.

Snowflakes swirled from a dark sky and ashes rose to meet them, the grey and the white whirling around each other as flaming arrows arced above a wooden wall and dead things shambled silent through the cold, beneath a great grey cliff where fires burned inside a hundred caves. Then the wind rose and the white mist came sweeping in, impossibly cold, and one by one the fires went out. Afterward only the skulls remained. (aDwD, Melisandre I)

Burning shafts hissed upward, trailing tongues of fire. Scarecrow brothers tumbled down, black cloaks ablaze. “Snow,” an eagle cried, as foemen scuttled up the ice like spiders. Jon was armored in black ice, but his blade burned red in his fist. As the dead men reached the top of the Wall he sent them down to die again. He slew a greybeard and a beardless boy, a giant, a gaunt man with filed teeth, a girl with thick red hair. Too late he recognized Ygritte. She was gone as quick as she’d appeared. (aDwD, Jon XII)

WightGiants
Wight army with wighted Giants, Game Of Thrones TV-series.

But the Others do not always use the tactic of the Fist of the First Men. Nor do they operate all at once in the same location. For example, while some led an attack on Hardhome, other Others nibbled at Tormund’s army journeying south to the Wall.

Furthermore, readers also expect the first strike to be at Eastwatch, because Mel said so.

Then the towers by the sea, crumbling as the dark tide came sweeping over them, rising from the depths. […]
“Eastwatch?”
Was it? Melisandre had seen Eastwatch-by-the-Sea with King Stannis. That was where His Grace left Queen Selyse and their daughter Shireen when he assembled his knights for the march to Castle Black. The towers in her fire had been different, but that was oft the way with visions. “Yes. Eastwatch, my lord.” (aDwD, Melisandre I)

But Melisandre herself is unsure whether she saw Eastwatch fall. Her own thoughts lean towards, “Nope”. She gave Jon an affirmative answer, because it seemed better to lie with confidence than to be truthful about her doubts. She has wanted Jon to seek her for advice and win his trust since her arrival at the Wall. He was always a skeptic of her. After the Weeper killed his brothers and left them as she had foretold, Jon finally comes to seek her out, and her answering “I don’t know which place I saw,” would not do.

So, if it is not Eastwatch, then what did Mel see? Since the early days of aDwD‘s release, a good section of the fandom suspects this is a vision about Euron conquering Oldtown:

Both Garlan the Good and Rooseman propose the two towers represent members of House Hightower. Personally, I think the two towers represent the physical Hightower and the fall of House Hightower. The public reading by GRRM at a convention of Aeron’s POV chapter The Forsaken for tWoW has only strengthened the idea of Oldtown as target location for Euron’s attack. The naysayers of an attack on Oldtown in the early days doubted the length Euron would go with his dabbling in magic. The Forsaken though sets Euron up to either become or be an accomplice to an Eldritch horror and blew the naysayer argument out of the water (pun intended). Euron and Oldtown falls beyond the scope and intent of this essay. But it serves to throw serious Shade (pun intended) on Mel’s claim about Eastwatch.

Winter Has Come

It is quite important to keep the timeline in the back of your mind of Jon’s last chapter in aDwD, in comparison to basically almost any other POV, events and plot developments. That chapter is the farthest ahead in time, including aDwD‘s epilogue and sample chapters of tWoW. The plot of all the other POVs still need to catch up to Jon’s timeline: Cersei in King’s Landing, Arianne with Aegon and Storm’s End, Theon and Asha with Stannis, Davos in search of Rickon, Jaime and Brienne in the Riverlands, Sansa in the Vale, and finally Samwell and Aeron Damphair involving Oldtown and Euron. Add Arya in Braavos, Dany in the Dothraki Sea and the three POVs in Meereen, and we already have enough content for at least the first third of tWoW, if not the first half. And while no white raven from Oldtown has yet arrived at Castle Black to announce winter, it has in King’s Landing during the Epilogue, which can be synched with Jon IX or Jon X of aDwD. (see the timeline project). So, yes winter is very much here, and with winter so are the Others.

The white ravens of the Citadel did not carry messages, as their dark cousins did. When they went forth from Oldtown, it was for one purpose only: to herald a change of seasons. “Winter,” said Ser Kevan. The word made a white mist in the air. (aDwD, Epilogue)

Now, I am not the first reader to propose, the Others are “here”. Once in a while, readers will pause at the following description in the last paragraphs of Jon’s last chapter of aDwD.

“For the Watch.” Wick slashed at him again. This time Jon caught his wrist and bent his arm back until he dropped the dagger. The gangling steward backed away, his hands upraised as if to say, Not me, it was not me. Men were screaming. Jon reached for Longclaw, but his fingers had grown stiff and clumsy. Somehow he could not seem to get the sword free of its scabbard. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

With almost everybody’s attention on upset Wun Wun, it is unlikely any of the men screaming are actual witnesses to the assassination attempt. Wick’s attack of Jon is not the cause of their screaming. And so, some readers will wonder out loud, “Is it wights?” Especially, because this is the exact same question of Jon’s guard Rory when Patrek screams in mortal torment when Wun Wun pulls his arm.

He might have said more, but the scream cut him off. Val, was Jon’s first thought. But that was no woman’s scream. That is a man in mortal agony. He broke into a run. Horse and Rory raced after him. “Is it wights?” asked Rory. Jon wondered. Could his corpses have escaped their chains? The screaming had stopped by the time they came to Hardin’s Tower, but Wun Weg Wun Dar Wun was still roaring. The giant was dangling a bloody corpse by one leg, the same way Arya used to dangle her doll when she was small, swinging it like a morningstar when menaced by vegetables. Arya never tore her dolls to pieces, though. The dead man’s sword arm was yards away, the snow beneath it turning red. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

But just one line of “men screaming” without further explanation is not enough to convince readers. After all, we are not explicitly told what the men are screaming in fear for. It is suggestive, but inconclusive. However, when we go farther back in time of this chapter and to an earlier chapter we can build a case of circumstantial evidence.

The Free Folk Know

The day the Free Folk are to pass through Castle Black’s gate to the southern side of the Wall, it starts to grow darker by afternoon, first grey with a snow sky blocking the sun out. As soon as the Free Folk realize there is a snow sky, they increasingly become impatient in the long waiting line and start to move faster. The darker it grows, the more the urgence increases amongst the Free Folk, enough for Jon to realize it is more than just impatience, but real fear.

By afternoon the sun had gone, and the day turned grey and gusty. “A snow sky,” Tormund announced grimly. Others had seen the same omen in those flat white clouds. It seemed to spur them on to haste. Tempers began to fray. One man was stabbed when he tried to slip in ahead of others who had been hours in the column. […] On and on the wildlings came. The day grew darker, just as Tormund said. Clouds covered the sky from horizon to horizon, and warmth fled. There was more shoving at the gate, as men and goats and bullocks jostled each other out of the way. It is more than impatience, Jon realized. They are afraid. Warriors, spearwives, raiders, they are frightened of those woods, of shadows moving through the trees. They want to put the Wall between them before the night descends. (aDwD, Jon XII)

And when Jon first inquires with Tormund to tell him all he can about the Others, the man is reluctant to talk of them north of the Wall, mumbling his answer and eyeing the tree line uneasily.

“Tormund,” Jon said, as they watched four old women pull a cartful of children toward the gate, “tell me of our foe. I would know all there is to know of the Others.”
The wildling rubbed his mouth. “Not here,” he mumbled, “not this side o’ your Wall.” The old man glanced uneasily toward the trees in their white mantles. “They’re never far, you know. They won’t come out by day, not when that old sun’s shining, but don’t think that means they went away. Shadows never go away. Might be you don’t see them, but they’re always clinging to your heels.” (aDwD, Jon XII)

It is so easy for the reader to dismiss this fear as superstition or jolly Har-Tormund as being a tall-talker, because George has conditioned the reader to consider wildlings and lowborn characters in this way. We are conditioned by our own culture and the precedents to respond to them the same way Waymar Royce dismissed Gared in aGoT‘s prologue, even if we know and recognize the Others are real. And even while Tormund is indeed a tall-talker, can still make jokes and be a jolly fellow, he is also a leader. Thousands of wildlings still chose to follow him after the Battle at the Wall, followed him south to agree to a deal with the Night’s Watch. Unlike the many who went with Mother Mole to Hardhome, these Free Folk and Tormund survived in great numbers and managed to cross safely to the southern side of the Wall. But this was not because the Others did not bother with them. Quite the opposite, Others journeyed with them south, taking out scouts, outriders and stragglers.

“Did they trouble you on your way south?”
“They never came in force, if that’s your meaning, but they were with us all the same, nibbling at our edges. We lost more outriders than I care to think about, and it was worth your life to fall behind or wander off. Every nightfall we’d ring our camps with fire. They don’t like fire much, and no mistake. When the snows came, though … snow and sleet and freezing rain, it’s bloody hard to find dry wood or get your kindling lit, and the cold … some nights our fires just seemed to shrivel up and die. Nights like that, you always find some dead come the morning. ‘Less they find you first. The night that Torwynd … my boy, he …’ Tormund turned his face away. (aDwD, Jon XII)

We should picture this journey south by Tormund and the Free Folk more akin to Samwell’s death march to Craster after the Fist.

Tormund also points out to Jon that there is a huge difference between accepting the existence of Others and the actual deadly interaction with them.

Tormund turned back. “You know nothing. You killed a dead man, aye, I heard. Mance killed a hundred. A man can fight the dead, but when their masters come, when the white mists rise up … how do you fight a mist, crow? Shadows with teeth … air so cold it hurts to breathe, like a knife inside your chest … you do not know, you cannot know … can your sword cut cold?” (aDwD, Jon XII)

Others_padhome
The Others, by padhome

Jon’s own personal experience has solely been with just one wight. His Wall-dream/nightmare with the dead climbing the Wall like spiders basically only involves wights. So far, he has never seen or crossed swords with an Other. The sole man who lived to tell such a tale was Samwell. He does not even know the tell-tale signs of their proximity. But Tormund and the Free Folk passing the gate of the Wall do. So, Jon and we the readers should take the Free Folk’s fears serious.

And we should pay attention to Tormund’s orders when they align with environmental circumstances that are associated with Others: darkness, cold and snow. During the crossing of the Wall, it starts to snow. By then it is near dusk. Tormund urges his son Toregg to get the sick and weak moving, to burn the dead. When Toregg returns, he does so with Tormund’s rearguard.

The stream was no more than a trickle by the time Toregg emerged from the wood. With him rode a dozen mounted warriors armed with spears and swords. “My rear guard,” Tormund said, with a gap-toothed smile. “You crows have rangers. So do we. Them I left in camp in case we were attacked before we all got out.”
“Your best men.” (aDwD, Jon XII)

This rearguard’s job all day was to guard the sick and weak at the camp, not from attack by say the Weeper, but the Others. The risk or possibility of that happening was this real in Tormund’s mind. And guess who is one of the men of Tormund’s rearguard?

Borroq_by_Yapattack
Borroq, by Yapattack

Amongst the riders came one man afoot, with some big beast trotting at his heels. A boar, Jon saw. A monstrous boar. Twice the size of Ghost, the creature was covered with coarse black hair, with tusks as long as a man’s arm. Jon had never seen a boar so huge or ugly. The man beside him was no beauty either; hulking, black-browed, he had a flat nose, heavy jowls dark with stubble, small black close-set eyes.
“Borroq.” Tormund turned his head and spat.
“A skinchanger.” It was not a question. Somehow he knew.(aDwD, Jon XII)

Borroq is not just some skinchanger amongst thousands of Free Folk who followed Tormund. He is one of Tormund’s best men and part of the rearguard who was left to guard in case the Others decided to attack. Now, why would Tormund have a skinchanger and his boar remain behind to keep watch for any sign of the Others? Might it be, because his boar would “smell” the Others sooner than humans would? Because he would be the first able to warn people?

Borroq and his boar are often met with suspicion by readers and Jon. Certainly, George is using certain stereotypical situations for people to dislike him and his boar. First, Tormund turns and spits after speaking his name, and Ghost bares his teeth in a silent snarl, standing protectively in front of Jon once he smells the boar.

Ghost turned his head. The falling snow had masked the boar’s scent, but now the white wolf had the smell. He padded out in front of Jon, his teeth bared in a silent snarl. (aDwD, Jon XII)

This reminds us of Grey Wind when he was aggressively protective of Robb at their arrival at the Twins, before the Red Wedding.

Grey Wind edged forward, tail stiff, watching through slitted eyes of dark gold. When the Freys were a half-dozen yards away Catelyn heard him growl, a deep rumble that seemed almost one with rush of the river. Robb looked startled. “Grey Wind, to me. To me!” Instead the direwolf leapt forward, snarling. (aSoS, Catelyn VI)

George is using our memory of Catelyn’s warning to Robb to keep Grey Wind by his side to sniff out those who may do him harm to make us distrust the boar and Borroq. This only works as a superficial comparison. George RR Martin did his research as a writer when it comes to wolf body language, and both he and his wife are long time sponsors and supporters of wolf sanctuaries. As a consequence George always makes sure to write any of the direwolves’ vocalisations and body language to fit with that of real wolves.

Take Grey Wind’s behavior against Black Walder and the Freys they meet upon arrival at the Twins for example. The stiff tail matches that of a wolf considering the other a threat. Slitting the eyes is an expression of suspicion and fear. A deep rumbling growl is an extremely aggressive warning. And it is followed by a leap forward. Grey Wind is therefore correctly described as regarding Black Walder as a very hostile threat and behaves accordingly.

wolf body language

While Ghost puts himself in between the boar and Jon, he does not leap, but pads forward. This is more befitting with dominant and confident behavior. Without any particular mention of hackles being raised or specifying the tail’s position, we can therefore regard Ghost’s snarl as a caution or warning towards the boar – “You behave, for this is my pack!” and “You’ll have to go through me if you mean Jon any harm.” This snarl is only meant for the boar, not Borroq. This is lightyears away from Grey Wind’s leaping, rumbling growl, stiff tail and slitted eyes towards the Freys.

Tormund reminds us that Ghost’s protective stance against the giant boar is a natural one.

“Boars and wolves,” said Tormund. “Best keep that beast o’ yours locked up tonight. I’ll see that Borroq does the same with his pig.” He glanced up at the darkening sky. “Them’s the last, and none too soon. It’s going to snow all night, I feel it. Time I had a look at what’s on t’other side of all that ice.” (aDwD, Jon XII)

It is to be expected and natural that Ghost considers Borroq’s unknown boar a potential threat, without assuming something nefarious. Now let us inspect the boar’s response to this: the boar is perfectly well behaved and refrains from responding in kind to either Ghost or Jon.

Wait a minute, you might think by now, “Did the boar not threaten Jon at some point?” You are thinking of a moment that occurs far later in the interaction sequence, and it is actually unrelated to either Ghost or Jon. Just when Borroq is about to pass through the gate as the very last of the Free Folk, the last of Tormund’s rearguard, does the boar appear to be close to charging something or someone.

The skinchanger stopped ten yards away. His monster pawed at the mud, snuffling. A light powdering of snow covered the boar’s humped black back. He gave a snort and lowered his head, and for half a heartbeat Jon thought he was about to charge. To either side of him, his men lowered their spears. (aDwD, Jon XII)

The boar does this shortly after snuffling. So, we can safely conclude that this was in response to a smell he picked up. If this was a response to Ghost’s smell, the boar should have done so far earlier: when Ghost put himself between Jon and the boar. This is why we can rule out the boar wanting to charge either Jon or Ghost. So what did he smell? We are told that a light powder snow covers the boar. And since it is snowing, the snow would also drop on the ground. So, could it be the Others that the boar smells? This seems the likeliest answer, for Borroq warns Jon that “they” are coming, shortly after.

“You close it good and tight. They’re coming, crow.” He smiled as ugly a smile as Jon had ever seen and made his way to the gate. The boar stalked after him. The falling snow covered up their tracks behind them. (aDwD, Jon XII)

Because he has an ugly smile, readers tend to consider this as some nasty taunt or joke by Borroq. However, as I point out, the man is just doing the job he is supposed to do as a skinchanger rearguard. He goes through as last, and warns Jon that his boar just smelled the Others coming for them. Jon and his guardsmen mistook the target of the boar’s alarm. And Borroq’s sole crime in his introduction scene is being ugly, which is not really a crime, is it? Instead, it is quite a typical trap of George Martin to mislead the reader.

Snow! Snow! Snow!

So, once we scratch away the layer of misdirection, Borroq and his boar plant the seeds that animals can smell the Others. George has refrained from explicitly confirming this in the books as published. But the recent finds in the Cushing Library at Texas A &M University of the draft versions for aFfC and aDwD of 2004 has Ghost confirming how Others smell to him in one of Jon’s wolf dreams.

With the cliff between them, he could not sense his brother, but sometimes when he padded down the long cold burrow under the ice and poked his nose through the hard black bars, he could feel him. The snow was falling where his brother was, covering all the woods in white. And there were hunters near, living men and dead men, and the ones who wore the shapes of men but smelled only of cold. (aFfC draft 2004, Jon I)

The “cliff” that Ghost references in this quote is the “Wall”. On the one hand, this draft version confirms that the magical ward prevents Ghost from “sensing” Summer north of the Wall, as long as Ghost is south of it. And it confirms that Ghost can recognize living men from wights and from Others by smell. He is aware that the Others are not actually men at all, but only wear the shape of men and they smell only of the cold. There are several main reasons why this draft version got scrapped:

  • It is too much on the nose (pun intended) about the Wall’s magical interference with sensing who is north of the Wall.
  • It is a huge reveal about the Others “wearing” a humanoid shape (see From Sandkings to Nightqueens).
  • Once George knew he would end Jon’s arc of aDwD in the cliffhanger he did, it is only logical that he pulled such an early explicit confirmation that Ghost knows what Others smell like. Instead he gave us a hint to it via Borroq’s boar in Jon’s penultimate chapter.
  • It creates a situation where the magical ward of the Wall can not only prevent sensing someone or something, but can prevent smell, and thus a potential physical paradox.

You may remember Ghost as nearly taking a bite out of one of Jon’s guards as well as Ghost sniffing or approaching Bowen Marsh after his visit with Jon. The common interpretation of both these scenes is that Ghost is acting hostile to conspirators who plan to assassinate Jon Snow that evening. This interpretation is wrong and does not hold up under closer scrutiny, both for wolf body language and the fact that Ghost becomes aggressive even towards Jon himself. Here is the complete scene about Jon’s two guards standing outside out of fear of Ghost’s wild and aggressive behavior.

Jon Snow with Ghost by Michael Komarck
Jon Snow with Ghost and Mormont’s raven, by Michael Komarck

Outside the armory, Mully and the Flea stood shivering at guard. “Shouldn’t you be inside, out of this wind?” Jon asked.
“That’d be sweet, m’lord,” said Fulk the Flea, “but your wolf’s in no mood for company today.”
Mully agreed. “He tried to take a bite o’ me, he did.”
“Ghost?” Jon was shocked.
“Unless your lordship has some other white wolf, aye. I never seen him like this, m’lord. All wild-like, I mean.” (aDwD, Jon XIII)

The above quote is the scene readers tend to remember, and the quote that will be used by theorists to argue for example that Mully is one of the conspiritors. But that quote cut off much too early. Jon enters and experiences this:

He was not wrong, as Jon discovered for himself when he slipped inside the doors. The big white direwolf would not lie still. He paced from one end of the armory to the other, past the cold forge and back again. “Easy, Ghost,” Jon called. “Down. Sit, Ghost. Down.” Yet when he made to touch him, the wolf bristled and bared his teeth. It’s that bloody boar. Even in here, Ghost can smell his stink. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

When Jon enters the forge, Ghost is pacing in agitation. And when Jon himself attempts to calm Ghost, Ghost bristles and bares his teeth at Jon. We can conclude that Ghost is restless and extremely upset over something, enough to be aggressive to Jon himself, but I think I can get everybody to agree at least that Jon is not conspiring to kill himself, right? So, Ghost’s behavior in this scene and thus earlier to Mully is not related to a conspiracy to assassinate Jon.

Jon blames it on Ghost being able to smell Borroq’s boar. But if this was true, then his behavior here is far more aggressive with the boar at a safe distance, than when he actually faced the boar north of the Wall, or why he would display this behavior only now, when Borroq’s boar has been within the vicinity for days, and also afterwards when Ghost is much calmer. Nor does it explain the alarmed behavior of Mormont’s raven.

Mormont’s raven seemed agitated too. “Snow,” the bird kept screaming. “Snow, snow, snow.” (aDwD, Jon XIII)

Notice how the raven repeats the word snow four times. Because Samwell taught the ravens to say Snow, Jon’s name, we are bound to assume that is who the raven is referring to. But the raven could also just mean the white stuff falling from the sky. If so, then Ghost and the raven are aggressive and agitated because of what they smell in association to the snow, just like Borroq’s boar seemed to do.

Right before Jon arrived at the forge and the two guards outside, Jon looks at the Wall and the sky above the Wall. He notices clear signs of a snow sky.

He glanced up past the King’s Tower. The Wall was a dull white, the sky above it whiter. A snow sky. “Just pray we do not get another storm.” (aDwD, Jon XIII)

Wallpaper of the Wall
the Wall, author unknown (contact me for credit)

We can determine the source direction of this snow sky is the north: someone standing outside in Castle Black looking at the Wall and the sky above it, must be looking in the northern direction. So, with the precedent of the behavior of Borroq’s boar in the back of our mind, we can see that a snow sky floating in from the north direction is a valid potential cause of Ghost’s aggression, even towards Jon, and for Mormont’s raven screaming snow repeatedly.

Let me make clear, that I am not proposing that Ghost or the raven fear the snow itself. Jon observed far earlier that Ghost actually likes fresh snow.

At the base of the Wall he found Ghost rolling in a snowbank. The big white direwolf seemed to love fresh snow. (aDwD, Jon VI)

It is not the snow itself that sets off alarm bells, but the Others who come with this particular snowstorm rolling in from the north (or caused it).

“What about the Others?”
“[…] The Others come when it is cold, most of the tales agree. Or else it gets cold when they come. Sometimes they appear during snowstorms and melt away when the skies clear. […]” (aFfC, Samwell I; and aDwD, Jon II)

So, I propose that Ghost and Mormont’s raven are agitated and alarmed, because they smell the Others being near to the Wall.

Let us now test this working hypothesis for their behavior against their later behavior throughout the day. Shortly after this scene, Jon has Satin fetch Marsh and Yarwick to visit his solar in order to discuss their needs, his plan to man as many castles as he can at the Wall and how to save the survivors at Hardhome.

Jon shooed [Mormont’s raven] off, had Satin start a fire, then sent him out after Bowen Marsh and Othell Yarwyck. “Bring a flagon of mulled wine as well.”
“Three cups, m’lord?”
“Six. Mully and the Flea look in need of something warm. So will you.” […]
Marsh entered snuffling, Yarwyck dour. “Another storm,” the First Builder announced. “How are we to work in this? I need more builders.” (aDwD, Jon XIII)

Jon has his fruitless exchange with both men, and they depart. When Bowen and Othel pass Ghost he sniffs them.

Satin helped them back into their cloaks. As they walked through the armory, Ghost sniffed at them, his tail upraised and bristling. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

This sniffing and bristling is often interpreted as Ghost expressing suspicion of Marsh and Yarwick. But a suspicious wolf would NOT raise his tail vertical. Instead he would narrow his eyes, flatten his ears and the tail would point straight outward, parallel to the floor or ground (like Grey Wind). Ghost’s described posture towards Bowen Marsh is that of dominance. When the tail alone bristles and goes vertically up, without wagging, a wolf is asserting a non-aggressive, relaxed form of dominion, and certainly not expressing suspicion. Marsh or Yarwyck do not even provoke one of Ghost’s silent snarls. Ghost’s wolf body language is neither aggressive or suspicious, just dominance. 

So, on the one hand Bowen Marsh’s plan to assassinate Jon seems to not yet have been formed at this point. This only emphasizes how unlikely it was that Ghost’s actual aggression towards Jon and Mully was related to a mutiny plot.

On the other hand, Ghost not being aggressive anymore seems odd in light of my snow-smell hypothesis: if the raven and Ghost were agitated because of the smell of snow, then should they not remain such or become even more aggressive when it actually starts to snow? Not, if the winds have turned so that Ghost and the raven are not downwind anymore. And what do we learn when Bowen and Yarwyck open the door?

The snow was falling heavily outside. “Wind’s from the south,” Yarwyck observed. “It’s blowing the snow right up against the Wall. See?” He was right. The switchback stair was buried almost to the first landing, Jon saw, and the wooden doors of the ice cells and storerooms had vanished behind a wall of white. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

It is a snowstorm alright, except the wind is now blowing from the south, blowing the snow up against the Wall. In other words, the northern winds that blew snow across the Wall, have turned. This means that the Others are now downwind and cannot be smelled anymore by Ghost or the raven. Hence, Ghost and the raven cease to be aggressive or agitated.

The hypothesis holds up to later scenes with Ghost and the raven. When Jon leaves for the Shield Hall with Tormund and his other two guards, after hours of planning with Tormund over the Pink Letter, Ghost is perfectly calm, wanting to pad along with Jon.

Horse and Rory had replaced Fulk and Mully at the armory door with the change of watch. “With me,” Jon told them, when the time came. Ghost would have followed as well, but as the wolf came padding after them, Jon grabbed him by the scruff of his neck and wrestled him back inside. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

There is nothing in the direwolf’s behavior that is cause for alarm. Meanwhile Mormont’s raven is making jokes around Tormund, when Jon and Tormund discuss Selyse’s plans to wed Gerrick Kingsblood’s daughters to three of her Queen’s men, shortly before Clydas gives Jon the Pink Letter.

“He has a little red cock to go with all that red hair, that’s what he has. Raymund Redbeard and his sons died at Long Lake, thanks to your bloody Starks and the Drunken Giant. Not the little brother. Ever wonder why they called him the Red Raven?” Tormund’s mouth split in a gap-toothed grin. “First to fly the battle, he was. ‘Twas a song about it, after. The singer had to find a rhyme for craven, so …” He wiped his nose. “If your queen’s knights want those girls o’ his, they’re welcome to them.”
“Girls,” squawked Mormont’s raven. “Girls, girls.”
That set Tormund to laughing all over again. “Now there’s a bird with sense. How much do you want for him, Snow? I gave you a son, the least you could do is give me the bloody bird.” (aDwD, Jon XIII)

So, George only wrote Ghost and the raven as alarmed and aggressive even to Jon, when the snow sky was gathering above the Wall, coming from the north, and both animals relax once the wind blows from the south and are absolutely calm by late afternoon or dusk. The mutiny plot cannot explain this behavior whatsoever, whereas the cold smell of the Others north of the Wall explains it well, including when the winds turn. The animals were only aggressive when they were downwind of the Others, but relaxed when they were not downwind anymore. This then becomes the circumstantial evidence to the Others being at the other side of the Wall at Castle Black at the moment when Bowen Marsh and his fellow mutineers attempt to kill Jon.

The Cold

While snow is only sometimes a sign of the Others, they always come with the cold or the cold comes with them. Cold is exactly the last that Jon experiences by the end of his last chapter.

Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks. “For the Watch.” He punched Jon in the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it.
Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger’s hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold night air the wound was smoking. “Ghost,” he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end. When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold … (aDwD, Jon XIII)

Jon can only feel the cold at the end, never even the fourth knife, which is weird given the three prior wounds: a graze at the neck, a stab at the belly, and one between the shoulder. Of these three only the belly stab can be potentially mortal, but it would take hours and hours to die from it. The belly stab is the wound that smokes, which can only happen in extreme cold. In the infamous prologue of aGoT, Gared explains how the cold causes a numbness to sensations.

“Nothing burns like the cold. But only for a while. Then it gets inside you and starts to fill you up, and after a while you don’t have the strength to fight it. It’s easier just to sit down or go to sleep. They say you don’t feel any pain toward the end.” (aGoT, Prologue)

Of course, the process that Gared explains normally takes hours. In Jon’s case the sensations follow one another in rapid succession, like some form of flash freeze.

Any scene with wights or others has always involved a drop in temperature because of northern winds, and sudden cooling or extreme cold when they are near. And it is just so in aGoT‘s Prologue. All day prior to Waymar’s fateful duel with the Other, a cold northern wind blew.

A cold wind was blowing out of the north, and it made the trees rustle like living things. All day, Will had felt as though something were watching him, something cold and implacable that loved him not. (aGoT, Prologue)

Waymar Royce by Christof Grobelski
Waymar Royce by Christof Grobelski

When Will glimpses the pale shapes gliding through, Waymar asks him why it is so cold all of a sudden in a manner it was not before.

Will saw movement from the corner of his eye. Pale shapes gliding through the wood. He turned his head, glimpsed a white shadow in the darkness. Then it was gone. “Can you see anything?” [Waymar] was turning in a slow circle, suddenly wary, his sword in hand. He must have felt them, as Will felt them. There was nothing to see. “Answer me! Why is it so cold?” It was cold. Shivering, Will clung more tightly to his perch. (aGoT, Prologue)

Will also describes Waymar’s physical responses, worded in a manner that we are inclined to interprete them as an expression of emotion, while they are more than likely physical reflexes to the cold.

Will heard the breath go out of Ser Waymar Royce in a long hiss. “Come no farther,” the lordling warned. His voice cracked like a boy’s. He threw the long sable cloak back over his shoulders, to free his arms for battle, and took his sword in both hands. The wind had stopped. It was very cold. […] Ser Waymar met him bravely. “Dance with me then.” He lifted his sword high over his head, defiant. His hands trembled from the weight of it, or perhaps from the cold. (aGoT, Prologue)

Waymar’s voice likely cracks from the cold. Even the hiss of his breadth may be due to the cold and having trouble with breathing.

Curiously, Waymar uses a challenge to the Other that is only phrased in that same way once: by Jon. When he sees snowflakes dance as he is about to go through the gate back into Castle Black after all the wildlings went through, and Borroq warned Jon that they are coming, Jon translates their air dance as a challenge by the Others for Jon to dance with them.

A snowflake danced upon the air. Then another. Dance with me, Jon Snow, he thought. You’ll dance with me anon. (aDwD, Jon XII)

Dancing and the dance is a regular euphemism throughout the series for war, a fight or duel. But this particular phrase is unique for Waymar and Jon alone, and both tied to the Others. Alys Karstark makes a close remark, but it is conditional only – “you could dance with me“, after which she adds, “You danced with me anon.”

And of course, Waymar’s wound steams like Jon’s.

The pale sword bit through the ringmail beneath his arm. The young lord cried out in pain. Blood welled between the rings. It steamed in the cold, and the droplets seemed red as fire where they touched the snow. (aGoT, Prologue)

Blue-eyed dead Othor and Jafer were carried through the gate into Castle Black on Jeor’s orders, instead of being burned north of the Wall. When Jon and the rest of the Night’s Watch ride for the Wall with the two wighted dead men, it is still a hot summer day.

The day was grey, damp, overcast, the sort of day that made you wish for rain. No wind stirred the wood; the air hung humid and heavy, and Jon’s clothes clung to his skin. It was warm. Too warm. The Wall was weeping copiously, had been weeping for days, and sometimes Jon even imagined it was shrinking. (aGoT, Jon VII)

After Jeor tells him of the news about Ned Stark having been arrested for treason, Jon leaves the tower to have his dinner at the mess hall. By then a north wind has rises and it is much colder.

The wind was rising, and it seemed colder in the yard than it had when he’d gone in. Spirit summer was drawing to an end. […] A north wind had begun to blow by the time the sun went down. Jon could hear it skirling against the Wall and over the icy battlements as he went to the common hall for the evening meal.(aGoT, Jon VII)

When Jon sits in his cell after attacking Alliser Thorne, we witness Ghost snarling at Jon and having scratched gouges into the door to get out, combined with Jon experiencing an extreme cold.

When he woke, his legs were stiff and cramped and the candle had long since burned out. Ghost stood on his hind legs, scrabbling at the door. Jon was startled to see how tall he’d grown. “Ghost, what is it?” he called softly. The direwolf turned his head and looked down at him, baring his fangs in a silent snarl. Has he gone mad? Jon wondered. “It’s me, Ghost,” he murmured, trying not to sound afraid. Yet he was trembling, violently. When had it gotten so cold? Ghost backed away from the door. There were deep gouges where he’d raked the wood. Jon watched him with mounting disquiet. “There’s someone out there, isn’t there?” he whispered. Crouching, the direwolf crept backward, white fur rising on the back of his neck. The guard, he thought, they left a man to guard my door, Ghost smells him through the door, that’s all it is. Slowly, Jon pushed himself to his feet. He was shivering uncontrollably, wishing he still had a sword. (aGoT, Jon VII)

Of course the crucial aspect here is that Othor and Jafer were already wighted before they were carried south of the Wall.

Dywen sucked at his wooden teeth. “Might be they didn’t die here. Might be someone brought ’em and left ’em for us. A warning, as like.” The old forester peered down suspiciously. “And might be I’m a fool, but I don’t know that Othor never had no blue eyes afore.”
Ser Jaremy looked startled. “Neither did Flowers,” he blurted, turning to stare at the dead man. (aGoT, Jon VII)

So, in aGoT, we have a situation where “sleeping” (inactive) wights can be carried south of the Wall. And while first reads may give a reader the impression that Othor and Jafer are acting on memory, the north winds rising suggests that the Others are directing them remotely from north of the Wall. The Wall may be able to prevent an active wight and Others from crossing, but it does not prevent the Others from using their magic, once a wight is south of the Wall.

Wights during the Battle of the Fist of the First Men (non cropped)_zippo514
Battle of the Fist of the First Man, by zippo14

At the Fist of the First Men, Chett experiences an extreme cold the day prior to the attack of the wights and how one of the dogs snarls at him.

The day was grey and bitter cold, and the dogs would not take the scent. The big black bitch had taken one sniff at the bear tracks, backed off, and skulked back to the pack with her tail between her legs. The dogs huddled together miserably on the riverbank as the wind snapped at them. Chett felt it too, biting through his layers of black wool and boiled leather. It was too bloody cold for man or beast, but here they were. […] “Seven hells.” He gave the leashes a hard yank to get the dogs’ attention. “Track, you bastards. That’s a bear print. You want some meat or no? Find!” But the hounds only huddled closer, whining. Chett snapped his short lash above their heads, and the black bitch snarled at him. (aSoS, Prologue)

At night, as Chett lies waiting for the hour to kill Samwell, it starts to snow and his beard is frozen with icicles, not unlike Tormund’s in Jon’s last chapter of aDwD. And here we also have ravens muttering and quorking snow.

Ice caked his beard all around his mouth. […] He could hardly breathe. […] He got to his knees, and something wet and cold touched his nose. Chett looked up. Snow was falling. He could feel tears freezing to his cheeks. […] It was a heavy fall, thick white flakes coming down all about him.  […] The snow was falling so heavily that he got lost among the tents, but finally he spotted the snug little windbreak the fat boy had made for himself between a rock and the raven cages. […] One of the ravens quorked. “Snow,” another muttered, peering through the bars with black eyes. The first added a “Snow” of its own. (aSoS, Prologue)

The wildling [Tormund] arrived red-faced, shouting for a horn of ale and something hot to eat. He had ice in his beard and more crusting his mustache. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

This is the first precedent where we witness snow as a phenomenon in association with the Others and the wights they direct.. More, the aSoS Prologue also involves an assassination plot: Samwell and Jeor were to be killed. And later, Samwell’s POV in aSoS proves that the attack involves more than zombies alone: he meets with an Other as they flee from the Fist and ends up killing it with dragonglass.

The Other_by Dejan Delic
The Other by Dejan Delic

The wind sighed through the trees, driving a fine spray of snow into their faces. The cold was so bitter that Sam felt naked. […] There was only the [torch] Grenn carried, the flames rising from it like pale orange silks. He could see through them, to the black beyond. That torch will burn out soon, he thought, and we are all alone, without food or friends or fire. But that was wrong. They weren’t alone at all. […] Hoarfrost covered [the horse] like a sheen of frozen sweat, and a nest of stiff black entrails dragged from its open belly. On its back was a rider pale as ice. […] [Sam] was so scared he might have pissed himself all over again, but the cold was in him, a cold so savage that his bladder felt frozen solid. The Other slid gracefully from the saddle to stand upon the snow. Sword-slim it was, and milky white. Its armor rippled and shifted as it moved, and its feet did not break the crust of the new-fallen snow. […] The wights had been slow clumsy things, but the Other was light as snow on the wind. It slid away from Paul’s axe, armor rippling, and its crystal sword twisted and spun and slipped between the iron rings of Paul’s mail, through leather and wool and bone and flesh. It came out his back with a hissssssssssss and Sam heard Paul say, “Oh,” as he lost the axe. Impaled, his blood smoking around the sword, the big man tried to reach his killer with his hands and almost had before he fell. (aSoS, Samwell I)

Bran near Bloodraven's cave
Bran arriving at Bloodraven’s cave, Game of Thrones show

We get similar signs in Bran’s chapter with Coldhands in the final stretch before the entrance of Bloodraven’s cave: a raven screaming, sharp cold, and a bristling Summer.

Something about the way the raven screamed sent a shiver running up Bran’s spine. […] But the air was sharp and cold and full of fear. Even Summer was afraid. The fur on his neck was bristling. […] “They are here.” (aDwD, Bran II)

Hodor’s beard and mustache is iced.

Icicles hung from the brown briar of [Hodor’s] beard, and his mustache was a lump of frozen snot, glittering redly in the light of sunset. (aDwD, Bran II)

Bran mentions how Summer can smell Varamyr’s wolf pack when Summer is downwind from them. So, here George suggests the concept of smelling a threat when the wolf is downwind.

“Where?” Meera’s voice was hushed.
“Close. I don’t know. Somewhere.”
“Those wolves are close as well,” Bran warned them. “The ones that have been following us. Summer can smell them whenever we’re downwind.” (aDwD, Bran II)

And when Meera comments that the way looks clear, she sounds like readers thinking, George does not show us explicitly that Others are present north of the Wall at Castle Black.

Meera eyed the hill above. “The way looks clear.”
“Looks,” the ranger muttered darkly. “Can you feel the cold? There’s something here. Where are they?” (aDwD, Bran II)

But Coldhands corrects Meera and the reader: if someone feels an extreme cold, then they are there.

And when Bran’s tears freeze, Coldhands warns that if they are not here yet, they will be soon.

Bran blinked back a tear and felt it freeze upon his cheek. Coldhands took Hodor by the arm. “The light is fading. If they’re not here now, they will be soon. Come.” (aDwD, Bran II)

While Jon notes that Bowen Marsh has tears streaming from his eyes, we can put question marks behind the fact whether these tears are actually streaming and not instead frozen icicles on his cheeks. Meanwhile what causes Bowen Marsh to weep to begin with? Extreme cold dehydrates our eyes, prompting a response by our tear ducts to produce tears to water the eyes. This is the reason why Chett and Bran (and Hodor) produce tears. It is merely our assumption that Bowen is weeping for emotional reasons, instead as a physiological reflex to the extreme cold that Jon describes.

Note that the wight attack in Bran’s chapter happens in front of a cave with a magical ward like that of the Wall. And while the wights and the Others are unable to pass the magical ward into the cave, in Bran’s last chapter we learn that more wights keep gathering in front of the entrance and snow is piling up like a wall against the cave.

Snowflakes drifted down soundlessly to cloak the soldier pines and sentinels in white. The drifts grew so deep that they covered the entrance to the caves, leaving a white wall that Summer had to dig through whenever he went outside to join his pack and hunt. (aDwD, Bran III)

Both with the magical ward and this white snow wall in front of the entrance building, George is setting up a further parallel between the cave and the Wall.

Buried Zombies

Jon had two dead wildlings carried from the weirwood grove north of the Wall into Castle Black.

The Hornfoot man could not sit a saddle and had to be tied over the back of a garron like a sack of grain; so too the pale-faced crone with the stick-thin limbs, whom they had not been able to rouse. They did the same with the two corpses, to the puzzlement of Iron Emmett. “They will only slow us, my lord,” he said to Jon. “We should chop them up and burn them.”
“No,” said Jon. “Bring them. I have a use for them.” […] The living wildlings Jon sent off to have their wounds and frostbites tended. Some hot food and warm clothes would restore most of them, he hoped, though the Hornfoot man was like to lose both feet. The corpses he consigned to the ice cells. (aDwD, Jon VII)

Jon keeps them in the ice cells of the Wall and explains to Bowen Marsh he hopes they will turn and become wights in order to learn more about wights.

Finally the Lord Steward cleared his throat. “Your lordship knows best, I am sure. Might I ask about these corpses in the ice cells? They make the men uneasy. And to keep them under guard? Surely that is a waste of two good men, unless you fear that they …”
“… will rise? I pray they do.”
Septon Cellador paled. “Seven save us.” Wine dribbled down his chin in a red line. “Lord Commander, wights are monstrous, unnatural creatures. Abominations before the eyes of the gods. You … you cannot mean to try to talk with them?”
“Can they talk?” asked Jon Snow. “I think not, but I cannot claim to know. Monsters they may be, but they were men before they died. How much remains? The one I slew was intent on killing Lord Commander Mormont. Plainly it remembered who he was and where to find him.” […] “My lord father used to tell me that a man must know his enemies. We understand little of the wights and less about the Others. We need to learn.” (aDwD, Jon VIII)

The two corpses in the ice cells are mentioned a third and last time in Jon’s last chapter, in relation to the snowstorm.

The switchback stair was buried almost to the first landing, Jon saw, and the wooden doors of the ice cells and storerooms had vanished behind a wall of white. “How many men do we have in ice cells?” he asked Bowen Marsh.
“Four living men. Two dead ones.” […] The corpses. Jon had almost forgotten them. He had hoped to learn something from the bodies they’d brought back from the weirwood grove, but the dead men had stubbornly remained dead. […] “What would the lord commander like us to do with his corpses?” asked Marsh when the living men had been moved.
“Leave them.” If the storm entombed them, well and good. He would need to burn them eventually, no doubt, but for the nonce they were bound with iron chains inside their cells. That, and being dead, should suffice to hold them harmless. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

Since the rule of three applies, readers speculate that we will see these two rise as wights at some point. And the readers who do suspect that the men screaming in the last paragraphs while Wyck and Marsh attempt to assassinate Jon are doing so on account of the appearance of wights, will often propose these two have been wighted and are wreaking havoc.

These two corpses serve to plant the seed of Others wightifying corpses at Castle Black, but I do not regard them to be the lethal threat: the iron chains will keep them in position. In the last mention of them though, George gives us a hint how to figure out the imminent threat: the snowstorm has created a wall of white, the same way a wall of snow was created at Bloodraven’s cave in Bran’s last chapter. When Bran traversed the fresh snow towards the cave in his second chapter, Bran and his friends are attacked by wights buried beneath the fresh snow that fell until three days before.

A hand, he saw, as the rest of the wight came bursting from beneath the snow. Hodor kicked at it, slamming a snow-covered heel full into the thing’s face, but the dead man did not even seem to feel it. Then the two of them were grappling, punching and clawing at each other, sliding down the hill. […] All around him, wights were rising from beneath the snow. (aDwD, Bran II)

And this brings me back to Borroq’s boar. Aside from Jon blaming Ghost’s aggression on Borroq’s boar, Jon’s thirteenth chapter also tells us that Borroq and his boar reside at Castle Black’s lichyard, and that the boar has been rooting in the soil of the graves.

Until such time, Borroq had taken up residence in one of the ancient tombs beside the castle lichyard. The company of men long dead seemed to suit him better than that of the living, and his boar seemed happy rooting amongst the graves, well away from other animals. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

Yes, Castle Black has a lichyard. In fact, George introduced us to the lichyard both early in aFfC and aDwD, when Gilly, Samwell and maester Aemon depart to Eastwatch. In Craster and His Wives I explain how Gilly serves as a stand-in character for the corpse queen (or the Mother of the Others), and having her be a commanding presence in the scene at the lichyard creates a visual pun of Gilly as corpse queen. The lichyard thus has already been framed in connection to the Others upon introduction.

While most of us did not forget about the two corpses in the ice cells or the boar, the lichyard has slipped the minds of most of us. Most readers hardly registered that the boar has basically been loosening the soil of those graves. Hmmm, not unlike Mance opening graves in search of a certain horn.

Ygritte: “[…] We opened half a hundred graves and let all those shades loose in the world, and never found the Horn of Joramun to bring this cold thing down!” (aSoS, Jon IV)

And what is certain: while septon Cellador is horrified over two chained corpses in an ice cell, neither he or any other, including Jon, had the wisdom to burn the hundreds if not thousands “men long dead” in there. So the two chained corpses in the ice cell are not the danger, but the potential army (company) of wights lying in wait beneath loosened soil are. Just as in Bran’s arc, the buried wights are the threat.

Another pointer to the true threat in parallel to Bran’s chapter comes from Mel.

“Borroq is the least of your concerns. This ranging …” (aDwD, Jon XIII)

Mel’s phrase is a parallel to Coldhands’ reply to Bran worrying over Varamyr’s wolf pack that Summer can smell when downwind to them.

“Wolves are the least of our woes,” said Coldhands. (aDwD, Bran II)

Notice that Mel begins to say something about a ranging, before Jon interrupts her. Mel never gets to finish her sentence, so this was purposefully added as a reference to Coldhands who is often called the ranger by Bran. And both the wolf pack and the boar have in common that they are a skinchanger’s animals.

During Jon’s last meeting with Marsh and Yarwyck, we get a foreshadowing.

As for Borroq, Othell Yarwyck claimed the woods north of Stonedoor were full of wild boars. Who was to say the skinchanger would not make his own pig army? (aDwD, Jon XIII)

Othell does not call it a boar army, but a pig army. In Craster’s Black Blooded Curse, I argued that George equates pigs symbolically to humans and eating pork to cannibalism. The most glaring examples are:

Nearby, a small girl pulled carrots from a garden, naked in the rain, while two women tied a pig for slaughter. The animal’s squeals were high and horrible, almost human in their distress. (aCoK, Jon III)

When [Samwell] looked at the fire, he thought he saw Bannen sitting up, his hands coiling into fists as if to fight off the flames that were consuming him, but it was only for an instant, before the swirling smoke hid all. The worst thing was the smell, though. If it had been a foul unpleasant smell he might have stood it, but his burning brother smelled so much like roast pork that Sam’s mouth began to water, […] (aSoS, Samwell II)

And in the latter association to pork or pigs, George included the image of a dead man rising. So, by association the foreshadowed pig army implies an army of wights. The sole potential wight army rising south of the Wall are those unburned dead in the lichyard.

The Magical Ward

I have more hints and foreshadowing in sky descriptions that predict the appearance of some Others north of Castle Black during Jon’s last chapter, but I am reserving them for another essay of the Blood Seal Thesis. If the detective work of Ghost’s body language in relation to the weather analysis and the precedent of prior experiences with the Others are not enough for you to seriously consider the presence of the Others at the other side of the Wall when Wyck and Bowen Marsh attack Jon as a valid proposal, then sky descriptions will not persuade you either.

I may have managed to persuade you to consider the possibility that the Others are here and that an army of wights is rising from their uprooted graves, causing men to scream in the background of the assassination attempt. But there is also one huge caveat: there seems to be an enormous difference between the Others reactivating and directing wights like Othor and Jafer, who were already wighted long before they were carried through Castle Black’s tunnel by the Night’s Watch and wightifying the dead south of the Wall. After all, the Wall is not just a physical barrier, but a magical one too.

“The Wall. The Wall is more than just ice and stone, [Coldhands] said. There are spells woven into it . . . old ones, and strong. He cannot pass beyond the Wall.” It grew very quiet in the castle kitchen then. […] Beyond the gates the monsters live, and the giants and the ghouls, he remembered Old Nan saying, but they cannot pass so long as the Wall stands strong. So go to sleep, my little Brandon, my baby boy. You needn’t fear. There are no monsters here. (aSoS, Bran IV)

In fact, the magical ward is far more important than the physical barrier. Bloodraven’s cave has a similar ward, but the entrance allows the living to cross to and fro since there is no physical barrier.

“Can you feel the cold? There’s something here. Where are they?”
“Inside the cave?” suggested Meera.
“The cave is warded. They cannot pass.” The ranger used his sword to point. “You can see the entrance there. Halfway up, between the weirwoods, that cleft in the rock.”
“I see it,” said Bran. Ravens were flying in and out.
[…]
“There’s a passage there. Steep and twisty at first, a runnel through the rock. If you can reach it, you’ll be safe.”
“What about you?
“The cave is warded.” (aDwD, Bran II)

How much this is a barrier I already emphasized in the Night’s King series, and I argued that one of the uses of the Night’s King to the corpse queen was as a smuggler to get her south of the Wall, like Davos had to smuggle Mel beyond the ward of the Storm’s End to birth her shadow assassin. It may not be a barrier against smell, wind and snow, but if it was never a barrier against the Others raising an army of the dead of a lichyard, it makes little sense the Others bothered with Othor and Jafer being carried through the Wall by the Night’s Watch. I expect the magical ward from preventing the Others to wightify anyone who was not yet a wight north of the Wall, even though it allows them to activate a sleeper wight.

In other words something must occur to the warding spell of the Wall, before the Others can raise the dead of the lichyard. The Blood Seal Thesis proposes that a warding spell must be locked in place with a blood seal. Since a seal is also a stamp, this implies that the warding spell becomes imprinted with that particular blood mix of the person shedding their blood to fixate it. As a consequence the seal can only be broken by shedding the blood of someone with a similar blood make up. In other words, the seal is a person. And obviously, I am proposing that Jon is a blood match and therefore the seal.

So, when Wyck grazes Jon’s neck and his blood drops onto the snow that was also blown against the ice of the Wall, the Wall’s warding spell was broken. The circumstantial evidence for the proposed concept of a Blood Seal is too expansive for this essay, but I will provide you with hints and references to the breaking of the magical ward and how this is tied to the foreshadowing of a wight army.

In the paragraph where Jon reveals to the reader that Borroq has made the lichyard his temporary residence with his boar, we also learn where Borroq is to live permanently.

The skinchanger [Borroq] was to accompany Soren Shieldbreaker to Stonedoor once the wayns carrying the Sealskinner‘s clan to Greenguard returned. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

It is quite doubtful whether Borroq and his boar will ever survive the night of Jon’s last chapter in aDwD to move to Stonedoor, so this plan only serves to give the reader hints, and the names used are eye opening: Shieldbreaker, Sealskinner, Greenguard and Stonedoor. In-world these are the names of two castles of the Night’s Watch and two names of prominent wildling leaders. The foreshadowing does not involve the actual locations or these two men, but the story these names foretell.

Let us start with the name Greenguard. The warding spells of the Wall, Storm’s End and Bloodraven’s cave are all attributed to children of the forest, who practice green magic.

“Legend has it that the giants helped raise the Wall, using their great strength to wrestle the blocks of ice into place. […] These same legends also say that the children of the forest—who did not themselves build walls of either ice or stone—would contribute their magic to the construction.” (tWoIaF – the Wall and Beyond: the Night’s Watch)

“A seventh castle he raised, most massive of all. Some said the children of the forest helped him build [Storm’s End], shaping the stones with magic; (aCoK, Catelyn III)

Hence we can say that a green guard is a green magic warding spell. And obviously in this case this is about the magical ward of the Wall. Though I do believe the conquering of Storm’s End by Aegon and the breach of Bloodraven’s cave may serve as a parallel in tWoW.

Ramsay_Moat_Cailin_by_gibilynx
Ramsay Bolton after Moat Cailin, by Gibilynx

In the foreshadowing the Sealskinner is on his way to this green guard, or the magical Wall. We recognize a reference to the blood seal concept that I propose in the first part. Meanwhile Skinner is the name of one of Ramsay’s Bastard Boys. Ramsay Bolton has several men-at-arms appointed by Roose to be of Ramsay’s service. Skinner was the one who flayed Theon’s fingers on Ramsay’s orders. He also claims that Ramsay killed his trueborn brother Domeric Bolton. It is possible that Skinner is one of the hunting party that may be on its way to Castle Black, but Skinner’s name is mostly yet another reference, to George’s novelette The Skin Trade. In that story, the Skinner is a supernatural shapeshifting assassin who in one of its shapes has knives for fingers. It uses mirrors as doors to traverse dimensions.

Skinner,” Steven called. The surface of the mirrors seemed to ripple and bulge, like a wave cresting on some quicksilver sea. The fog was thinning, Willie realized with sudden terror; he could see it clearer now, and he knew it could see him. And suddenly Willie Flambeaux knew what was happening, knew that when the fog cleared the mirrors wouldn’t be mirrors anymore; they’d be doors, doors, and the skinner would come…(Dreamsongs II, the Skin Trade)

The Skinner’s targets are werewolves on Steven’s orders. Steven has werewolf blood, but so pureblooded (inbred) that he himself cannot work the transformation from man into werewolf. But he discovered that when he wears the skin or pelt of another werewolf who can work the change, that he can steal their power for a short while. Both The Fattest Leech and Melanie Lot Seven have pointed out how Steven is a proto-Ramsay, while Willie Flambeaux (flaming sword), a werewolf of mutt descent (bastard) is a proto-Jon.

The above quote with Steven calling for the skinner to go after Willie via the mirrors follows a scene where Willie was wounded and his blood ended up on the mirrors of a funhouse.  

Willie looked into the mirrors. The reflections were gone. Willie, Steven, the moon, all gone. There was blood on the mirrors and they were full of fog, a silvery pale fog that shimmered as it moved. Something was moving through the fog, sliding from mirror to mirror to mirror, around and around. Something hungry that wanted to get out. (Dreamsongs II, the Skin Trade)

So, for aSoIaF, skinner serves as a double reference to both the supernatural Others as well as Ramsay, who flays people and steals first his brother’s birthright, then the Hornwood lands and finally Winterfell via a marriage to a fake wolf. And regardless of the real author of the Pink Letter, it was signed and “sealed” in Ramsay’s name.

Bastard, was the only word written outside the scroll. No Lord Snow or Jon Snow or Lord Commander. Simply Bastard. And the letter was sealed with a smear of hard pink wax. “You were right to come at once,” Jon said. You were right to be afraid. He cracked the seal, flattened the parchment, and read. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

That Pink Letter itself serves as a sealskinner. In my proposal of the blood seal concept, Jon himself is the blood seal that preserves the Wall’s green magical guard or ward. And the assassination attempt on Jon’s life occurs after he read the Pink Letter in the shield hall. And of course we can also see how the Sealskinner is a dual reference to the Others as supernatural beings coming through a mirror after the blood seal of the green guard is cracked.

The Shieldbreaker does not require much explanation. That leaves us with Stonedoor. The word door aligns with the Skinner reference: a mirror becomes a door. So why stone? Well, we tend to think of the Wall as being physically made from ice, but the Wall is made from earth, stone and ice. What happens if the magical ward is broken? Others can do with ice whatever they wish: dissolve it into mist for example. What remains of the Wall if they do? All that remains is stone section, and then the ice mirror has turned into a stone door. And without the ward or a cracked seal on the ward, the Others’ magic can raise that “pig army” from the graves. It is after all at Stonedoor that Yarwyck foretells Borroq might be able to raise a pig army.

So, basically that one sentence with those four foreshadowing references can be translated to mean that after the arrival of the Others and the Pink Letter to the Wall, the shield will be broken and turned into a stone door as well as an army of wights will rise from the lichyard. And since there is plenty of circumstantial evidence to support the proposal that the Others are at the other side of the Wall at Castle Black the day the Pink Letter arrived, the breaking of the shield of the ream occurs that very same night. (For an extensive analysis on hints and clues for the Blood Seal, see Quoth the Raven)

Conclusion (tl;tr)

Tormund reveals that the Others have nibbled at his thousands of wildlings during their trek south, and he is unwilling to reveal too much about them north of the Wall. The last wildlings that pass through the Wall are Tormund’s rearguard and best men. They are last as their main responsibility is to guard and keep other people alive. Borroq and his boar belong to Tormund’s rearguard and he is the very last wildling to pass through. We can safely assume this is because as skinchanger with far more experience with the Others than Jon, Borroq can raise the alarm the earliest when the Others are near. When the wild boar changes his stance to that of a charge, this is not related to Ghost or Jon, but immediately after the boar is snuffling the ground and snow is falling down. And this is followed by Borroq’ warning that the Others are coming.

The aggressive behavior of Ghost, including towards Jon, and Mormont’s raven acting in high alert is caused by them smelling the Others coming for Castle Black, for this behavior coincides with a snowsky rolling in from the north and any prior signs of the nearness of the Others. In these examples involving canines, the animal even turns or snarls at their caretaker. Later in the day, Ghost and the raven relax. This coincides with the wind turning, and blowing from the south. They are calmer and less aggressive from this point onwards, because the Others are now downwind, and neither Ghost or the raven can smell them anymore.

The proposals that Ghost and the raven are aggressive because of the plot to assassinate Jon are wrong. Ghost shows no aggression towards Bowen Marsh whatsoever, but relaxed dominance. Meanwhile Ghost nearly attacks Jon himself far ealier, when the snowsky was drifting in from the north.

Northern winds, snowfall, alarmed and aggressive, fearful animals, smoking wounds, extreme cold and the reflext from the tear ducts to water the eyes with tears freezing on the spot, and icicles on beard and mustache are all visible tell-tale signs that accompany a trap or attack by either themselves or wights. Since all these follow one after the other throughout Jon’s last day in aDwD, this mounts to a pile of circumstantial evidence to take the notion that the Others are present at the other side of the Wall quite serious.

On top of that we have numerous foreshadowing hints that not the two dead men chained in the ice cells are the danger, but the hundreds if not thousands forgotten dead brothers buried in the lichyard. Borroq’s boar has been rooting through the soil of those graves, thereby loosening the earth, making it easier for wights to rise from the lichyard. The few Others waiting at the other side of the Wall at Castle Black do not need to bring an army of wights from Hardhome. Once the magical ward of the Wall cracks or breaks, their magic can raise a lichyard ‘pig’ army. And this cracking or breaking is tied to the assassination attempt of Jon. It is thus entirely possible that the men screaming in the background while Wick slashes at Jon for a second time are screaming because dead men and dismembered arms come back to life.

The Blood Seal Thesis

(top image: The assassination of Jon Snow, by Arantza Sestayo, published for the aSoIaF calendar of 2022)

“King’s blood, to wake a dragon. Where Melisandre thinks to find a sleeping dragon, no one is quite sure. It’s nonsense. Mance’s blood is no more royal than mine own. He has never worn a crown nor sat a throne. He’s a brigand, nothing more. There’s no power in brigand’s blood.”
The raven looked up from the floor. “Blood,” it screamed. (aFfC, Samwell I)

Is Jon dead or not? If he is, how will he be resurrected? Who wrote the Pink Letter? How will the Wall fall? When will the Others show up? What is Bloodraven up to? And how does Mel fit into this all? So many opinions and speculations. Over the years I speculated along, but there were a few issues I was certain of:

  • Detective work of Jon’s last two chapters reveal strong hints that the Others are at Castle Black, lurking beneath the canopy of the Haunted Forest, the evening of Bowen Marsh’s attempt at Jon’s life.
  • Along with The Fattest Leech and Melanie Lot Seven, I recognize that George is reusing a plot point of his former novelette Skin Trade in the attempt on Jon’s life that is entrenched in the Bolton flaying plot with the Pink Letter, and therefore Jon is not actually dead.
  • The combination of the Others being present (but unseen) that fateful night and Jon’s blood falling onto the frozen yard of the biggest mirror of all Planetos (the recycled Skin Trade plot point) will somehow allow the Others’ magical powers to resurrect all the dead brothers of the Night’s Watch that have been buried in the lichyard.

When it comes to the recycling of the Skin Trade plot points, I recommend Melanie Lot Seven’s blog post I’ve Got You Under My Skin and of course for any fan of George Martin to read the story, which was included in the Dreamsongs collection. But here is the short summary of it (and comes with a spoiler warning!):

Skin Trade is a detective story revolving about the gruesome murders of werewolves. All the victims are found being skinned or flayed. The culprit tuns out to be the son of the rich man who pretty much owns everything in town. They turn out to be a family of pure and old werewolf blood, but despite this old blood, the son cannot work the change. The son discovered though that he only can if he wears the skinned pelt of another werewolf. It is however not the son himself who executes the murders. He has a magical interdimensional fiend do it, the Skinner. This being with knives for fingers can travel from mirror to mirror, and when the protagonist’s blood falls onto a mirror, the Skinner comes through. George retranslated this in aSoIaF, with Roose Bolton having the part of the rich man of the old blood, Ramsay of the psychopathic son who is a disappointment to his father, Jon the protagonist’s and the Others are the Skinner.

I have posted my analysis to prove the presence of the Others several times over the years on the forum of Westeros.org. I have it as a draft for this blog too. And yet, for years I did not publish these beliefs and analysis on my blog. A fundamental puzzle piece was missing until now for me to publish it on my blog: George has to fit the Skinner coming through the Wall into the magic of Planetos. He cannot just spring this on the reader without prior groundwork, especially since the Wall is not just a physical barrier, but a magical one. More, the magic and this particular Wall mirror were created and protected specifically against the Skinner from passing through. (see also Night’s King and what his use was for the corpse queen) So, if Jon’s blood on the mirror allows for the Others to walk through or allows their magic to resurrect the dead in the lichyard, then it must make magical sense to aSoIaF and Planetos, which is not the same world as Skin Trade. More, while George may clarify the “why” after aDwD, he must have already written in the clues for this prior to aDwD, Jon XIII, so that in retrospect and after a reread we all say “Oh my, so that was what this was about!”.

The “blood on the mirror” plot point is the literary smoking gun, but so far I lacked the scenes where the gun is being displayed, before it ever went off. The lead quote at the top was the clue to where the gun is displayed.

Unsmiling, Lord Beric laid the edge of his longsword against the palm of his left hand, and drew it slowly down. Blood ran dark from the gash he made, and washed over the steel. And then the sword took fire. (aSoS, Arya VI)

Beric Dondarrion is an outlaw, or a brigand. And his brigand’s blood can light up a common steel sword. The sword is not a magical sword, and Beric was never a king, nor ever claimed to be a king. And yet, his blood was magical and could create very real flames. Beric turning a common steel sword into a Lightbringer by shedding his own brigand’s blood on it contrasts Mel’s depraved show at the Wall. She burns a fake king-beyond-the-Wall  with brigand’s blood to make a glamored common steel sword glow bright like the sun.

The sword glowed red and yellow and orange, alive with light. Jon had seen the show before … but not like this, never before like this. Lightbringer was the sun made steel. When Stannis raised the blade above his head, men had to turn their heads or cover their eyes. Horses shied, and one threw his rider. The blaze in the fire pit seemed to shrink before this storm of light, like a small dog cowering before a larger one. The Wall itself turned red and pink and orange, as waves of color danced across the ice. Is this the power of king’s blood? (aDwD, Jon III)

What does this have to do with “blood on the mirror” and the Skinner coming through? The most important aspect of the Wall is the magical spell that prevents them from crossing: the invisible ward. Even if there was no physical wall, the spell itself blocks wights and Others from passing. Bloodraven’s cave has a similar magical ward and showcases this.

“The cave is warded. They cannot pass.” The ranger used his sword to point. “You can see the entrance there. Halfway up, between the weirwoods, that cleft in the rock.”
“I see it,” said Bran. Ravens were flying in and out.
“A fold in the rock, that’s all I see,” said Meera.
“There’s a passage there. Steep and twisty at first, a runnel through the rock. If you can reach it, you’ll be safe.”
“What about you?”
“The cave is warded.” (aDwD, Bran II)

There is no physical door or wall sealing the cave, only an invisible ward, which allows the living to pass, but not the wights that start to gather outside the cave, not the Others, not Coldhands.

The ward upon the cave mouth still held; the dead men could not enter. The snows had buried most of them again, but they were still there, hidden, frozen, waiting. […] Snowflakes drifted down soundlessly to cloak the soldier pines and sentinels in white. The drifts grew so deep that they covered the entrance to the caves, leaving a white wall that Summer had to dig through whenever he went outside to join his pack and hunt. (aDwD, Bran III)

Magic on Planetos has a cost and the coin is blood. Mel may speaks words and incantations to cast a spell, but the spell requires blood to be drawn.

The red priestess shuddered. Blood trickled down her thigh, black and smoking. (aDwD, Melisandre I)

When Skin Trade‘s plot point of “blood on the mirror” is recycled into aSoIaF, George reframed it into an act of blood magic. If Jon’s blood being spilled on the mirror Wall can break the warding spell, then it could only do so, because blood was used to seal the spells the children of the forest cast. No, not a carnage of slit throats, but a voluntary trickle caused by a cut in the hand. The most effective and strongest magic is not one where you spill another’s blood, but your own, willingly, as Beric’s blood on his blade proves. This is what I dub the Blood Seal. Blood pays for the magic, but it also protects it, as it bonds with the magic like a unique lock that can only be unlocked by someone with similar blood. As a consequence, Jon’s blood lineage becomes a crucial factor in how the warding spell gets broken, but so is the blood lineage of the one who sealed it thousands of years ago: Brandon the Builder.

This Blood Seal hypothesis did not come to me through a brainstorm, but textual analysis of words and actions of Mormont’s raven, particularly in the parallel chapters of Samwell and Jon regarding the swapping of the two babes. While the Blood Seal is an elegant and simple concept that fits within the magical framework that George has crafted in the series, it does require an elaborate amount of textual analysis to showcase it and it requires safeguards so that a Stark nicking his shin while shaving his beard at the Wall would not undo it.

This thesis therefore will include several essays, not just on the Blood Seal itself, but also the plotlines that lead to the breaking of the Wall and answers to questions being raised because of the hypothesis:

  • They’re Here! The clues and hints (“evidence”) in aDwD, Jon XII and Jon XIII for the Others being present at the other side of the Wall at Castle Black on the fateful day of the assassination attempt on Jon’s life.
  • Quoth, the Raven: The clues and hints laid out by Mormont’s raven, in actuality skinchanged by Bloodraven, in aFfC, Samwell I and aDwD, Jon II both as a foreshadowing of the breaking of the Wall’s ward as well as the casting of the blood seal.
  • Brandon’s Blood Seal (introduction): Delving into the past and the hints and clues about Brandon the Builder, his lineage, but also his talents and the claims about him. This builds on the tremendous work that History of Westeros has done already with regards to the Great Empire of Dawn.
    • Part 1 – What’s in a Name: etymological overview of three group names all having parallels to each other: the Brandons, the Ricks and the Wardens.
  • Protecting the Blood Seal: While the Night’s Watch guard the realm of men at the Wall, the Starks aimed to protect the Blood Seal, and managed to do this for thousands of years, despite a potential near brush to break it in the past.
  • Breaking the Blood Seal: What are the safeguards and the necessary conditions to break Brandon’s Blood Seal.
  • Jon’s Wall: In this essay I propose that the magical Wall is not just a spell or an icy object, but almost a living magical entity that Jon ends up bonding with and which he can skinchange. Or is it the Wall that can skinchange him? And I will argue the case that Jon and the magical Wall being one is the reason why Jon survives the assassination attempt on his life.
  • Wards, Seals and the Pink Letter: The swapping of Gilly’s son for Mance’s is somehow tied to the Pink Letter being sent. Is this just because of wordplay or is the loss of a hostage actually a crucial key to the authoring of the Pink Letter.
  • The Stink of Treason: Several plotlines that are tied to Jon and the Wall stink and reek. These are waving smellflags that forewarn Bowen Marsh’s betrayal.
  • Beyond the Wall: If Bloodraven acted to prevent the Pink Letter from being sent, to prevent the breaking of the Blood Seal, and kept true to his Night’s Watch vows via Mormont’s raven, then why does he seem to be absent on the fateful day? The answer is that the Others took out several cyvasse pieces from the board beyond the Wall all at once.
  • The Aftermath: A prediction on what we can expect on how George will reveal this in tWoW, what are the immediate consequences and scenes we will read about in a Castle Black POV.