They’re Here!

“You close it good and tight. They’re coming, crow.” He smiled as ugly a smile as Jon had ever seen and made his way to the gate. The boar stalked after him. The falling snow covered up their tracks behind them.. (aDwD, Jon XII)

While there are variations and disagreements on many particulars on what follows after the assassination attempt on Jon’s life, there tends to be one consensus amongst the readers: the Others are chilling far away from the Wall for now.

Index

An Illusion of Time

George actively aims to lull the reader into believing there is time before the Others will finally come knocking, by having Jon himself misread or underestimate the signs of their near presence; by having Jon plan an overland trek to Hardhome. He also created an expectation with the readers via the attack on the Fist of the First Men in aSoS and Mel’s vision of Hardhome that when the Others do arrive at the Wall, they will do so with a full force of perhaps ten thousand wights.

Snowflakes swirled from a dark sky and ashes rose to meet them, the grey and the white whirling around each other as flaming arrows arced above a wooden wall and dead things shambled silent through the cold, beneath a great grey cliff where fires burned inside a hundred caves. Then the wind rose and the white mist came sweeping in, impossibly cold, and one by one the fires went out. Afterward only the skulls remained. (aDwD, Melisandre I)

Burning shafts hissed upward, trailing tongues of fire. Scarecrow brothers tumbled down, black cloaks ablaze. “Snow,” an eagle cried, as foemen scuttled up the ice like spiders. Jon was armored in black ice, but his blade burned red in his fist. As the dead men reached the top of the Wall he sent them down to die again. He slew a greybeard and a beardless boy, a giant, a gaunt man with filed teeth, a girl with thick red hair. Too late he recognized Ygritte. She was gone as quick as she’d appeared. (aDwD, Jon XII)

WightGiants
Wight army with wighted Giants, Game Of Thrones TV-series.

But the Others do not always use the tactic of the Fist of the First Men. Nor do they operate all at once in the same location. For example, while some led an attack on Hardhome, other Others nibbled at Tormund’s army journeying south to the Wall.

Furthermore, readers also expect the first strike to be at Eastwatch, because Mel said so.

Then the towers by the sea, crumbling as the dark tide came sweeping over them, rising from the depths. […]
“Eastwatch?”
Was it? Melisandre had seen Eastwatch-by-the-Sea with King Stannis. That was where His Grace left Queen Selyse and their daughter Shireen when he assembled his knights for the march to Castle Black. The towers in her fire had been different, but that was oft the way with visions. “Yes. Eastwatch, my lord.” (aDwD, Melisandre I)

But Melisandre herself is unsure whether she saw Eastwatch fall. Her own thoughts lean towards, “Nope”. She gave Jon an affirmative answer, because it seemed better to lie with confidence than to be truthful about her doubts. She has wanted Jon to seek her for advice and win his trust since her arrival at the Wall. He was always a skeptic of her. After the Weeper killed his brothers and left them as she had foretold, Jon finally comes to seek her out, and her answering “I don’t know which place I saw,” would not do.

So, if it is not Eastwatch, then what did Mel see? Since the early days of aDwD‘s release, a good section of the fandom suspects this is a vision about Euron conquering Oldtown:

Both Garlan the Good and Rooseman propose the two towers represent members of House Hightower. Personally, I think the two towers represent the physical Hightower and the fall of House Hightower. The public reading by GRRM at a convention of Aeron’s POV chapter The Forsaken for tWoW has only strengthened the idea of Oldtown as target location for Euron’s attack. The naysayers of an attack on Oldtown in the early days doubted the length Euron would go with his dabbling in magic. The Forsaken though sets Euron up to either become or be an accomplice to an Eldritch horror and blew the naysayer argument out of the water (pun intended). Euron and Oldtown falls beyond the scope and intent of this essay. But it serves to throw serious Shade (pun intended) on Mel’s claim about Eastwatch.

Winter Has Come

It is quite important to keep the timeline in the back of your mind of Jon’s last chapter in aDwD, in comparison to basically almost any other POV, events and plot developments. That chapter is the farthest ahead in time, including aDwD‘s epilogue and sample chapters of tWoW. The plot of all the other POVs still need to catch up to Jon’s timeline: Cersei in King’s Landing, Arianne with Aegon and Storm’s End, Theon and Asha with Stannis, Davos in search of Rickon, Jaime and Brienne in the Riverlands, Sansa in the Vale, and finally Samwell and Aeron Damphair involving Oldtown and Euron. Add Arya in Braavos, Dany in the Dothraki Sea and the three POVs in Meereen, and we already have enough content for at least the first third of tWoW, if not the first half. And while no white raven from Oldtown has yet arrived at Castle Black to announce winter, it has in King’s Landing during the Epilogue, which can be synched with Jon IX or Jon X of aDwD. (see the timeline project). So, yes winter is very much here, and with winter so are the Others.

The white ravens of the Citadel did not carry messages, as their dark cousins did. When they went forth from Oldtown, it was for one purpose only: to herald a change of seasons. “Winter,” said Ser Kevan. The word made a white mist in the air. (aDwD, Epilogue)

Now, I am not the first reader to propose, the Others are “here”. Once in a while, readers will pause at the following description in the last paragraphs of Jon’s last chapter of aDwD.

“For the Watch.” Wick slashed at him again. This time Jon caught his wrist and bent his arm back until he dropped the dagger. The gangling steward backed away, his hands upraised as if to say, Not me, it was not me. Men were screaming. Jon reached for Longclaw, but his fingers had grown stiff and clumsy. Somehow he could not seem to get the sword free of its scabbard. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

With almost everybody’s attention on upset Wun Wun, it is unlikely any of the men screaming are actual witnesses to the assassination attempt. Wick’s attack of Jon is not the cause of their screaming. And so, some readers will wonder out loud, “Is it wights?” Especially, because this is the exact same question of Jon’s guard Rory when Patrek screams in mortal torment when Wun Wun pulls his arm.

He might have said more, but the scream cut him off. Val, was Jon’s first thought. But that was no woman’s scream. That is a man in mortal agony. He broke into a run. Horse and Rory raced after him. “Is it wights?” asked Rory. Jon wondered. Could his corpses have escaped their chains? The screaming had stopped by the time they came to Hardin’s Tower, but Wun Weg Wun Dar Wun was still roaring. The giant was dangling a bloody corpse by one leg, the same way Arya used to dangle her doll when she was small, swinging it like a morningstar when menaced by vegetables. Arya never tore her dolls to pieces, though. The dead man’s sword arm was yards away, the snow beneath it turning red. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

But just one line of “men screaming” without further explanation is not enough to convince readers. After all, we are not explicitly told what the men are screaming in fear for. It is suggestive, but inconclusive. However, when we go farther back in time of this chapter and to an earlier chapter we can build a case of circumstantial evidence.

The Free Folk Know

The day the Free Folk are to pass through Castle Black’s gate to the southern side of the Wall, it starts to grow darker by afternoon, first grey with a snow sky blocking the sun out. As soon as the Free Folk realize there is a snow sky, they increasingly become impatient in the long waiting line and start to move faster. The darker it grows, the more the urgence increases amongst the Free Folk, enough for Jon to realize it is more than just impatience, but real fear.

By afternoon the sun had gone, and the day turned grey and gusty. “A snow sky,” Tormund announced grimly. Others had seen the same omen in those flat white clouds. It seemed to spur them on to haste. Tempers began to fray. One man was stabbed when he tried to slip in ahead of others who had been hours in the column. […] On and on the wildlings came. The day grew darker, just as Tormund said. Clouds covered the sky from horizon to horizon, and warmth fled. There was more shoving at the gate, as men and goats and bullocks jostled each other out of the way. It is more than impatience, Jon realized. They are afraid. Warriors, spearwives, raiders, they are frightened of those woods, of shadows moving through the trees. They want to put the Wall between them before the night descends. (aDwD, Jon XII)

And when Jon first inquires with Tormund to tell him all he can about the Others, the man is reluctant to talk of them north of the Wall, mumbling his answer and eyeing the tree line uneasily.

“Tormund,” Jon said, as they watched four old women pull a cartful of children toward the gate, “tell me of our foe. I would know all there is to know of the Others.”
The wildling rubbed his mouth. “Not here,” he mumbled, “not this side o’ your Wall.” The old man glanced uneasily toward the trees in their white mantles. “They’re never far, you know. They won’t come out by day, not when that old sun’s shining, but don’t think that means they went away. Shadows never go away. Might be you don’t see them, but they’re always clinging to your heels.” (aDwD, Jon XII)

It is so easy for the reader to dismiss this fear as superstition or jolly Har-Tormund as being a tall-talker, because George has conditioned the reader to consider wildlings and lowborn characters in this way. We are conditioned by our own culture and the precedents to respond to them the same way Waymar Royce dismissed Gared in aGoT‘s prologue, even if we know and recognize the Others are real. And even while Tormund is indeed a tall-talker, can still make jokes and be a jolly fellow, he is also a leader. Thousands of wildlings still chose to follow him after the Battle at the Wall, followed him south to agree to a deal with the Night’s Watch. Unlike the many who went with Mother Mole to Hardhome, these Free Folk and Tormund survived in great numbers and managed to cross safely to the southern side of the Wall. But this was not because the Others did not bother with them. Quite the opposite, Others journeyed with them south, taking out scouts, outriders and stragglers.

“Did they trouble you on your way south?”
“They never came in force, if that’s your meaning, but they were with us all the same, nibbling at our edges. We lost more outriders than I care to think about, and it was worth your life to fall behind or wander off. Every nightfall we’d ring our camps with fire. They don’t like fire much, and no mistake. When the snows came, though … snow and sleet and freezing rain, it’s bloody hard to find dry wood or get your kindling lit, and the cold … some nights our fires just seemed to shrivel up and die. Nights like that, you always find some dead come the morning. ‘Less they find you first. The night that Torwynd … my boy, he …’ Tormund turned his face away. (aDwD, Jon XII)

We should picture this journey south by Tormund and the Free Folk more akin to Samwell’s death march to Craster after the Fist.

Tormund also points out to Jon that there is a huge difference between accepting the existence of Others and the actual deadly interaction with them.

Tormund turned back. “You know nothing. You killed a dead man, aye, I heard. Mance killed a hundred. A man can fight the dead, but when their masters come, when the white mists rise uphow do you fight a mist, crow? Shadows with teethair so cold it hurts to breathe, like a knife inside your chest … you do not know, you cannot know … can your sword cut cold?” (aDwD, Jon XII)

Others_padhome
The Others, by padhome

Jon’s own personal experience has solely been with just one wight. His Wall-dream/nightmare with the dead climbing the Wall like spiders basically only involves wights. So far, he has never seen or crossed swords with an Other. The sole man who lived to tell such a tale was Samwell. He does not even know the tell-tale signs of their proximity. But Tormund and the Free Folk passing the gate of the Wall do. So, Jon and we the readers should take the Free Folk’s fears serious.

And we should pay attention to Tormund’s orders when they align with environmental circumstances that are associated with Others: darkness, cold and snow. During the crossing of the Wall, it starts to snow. By then it is near dusk. Tormund urges his son Toregg to get the sick and weak moving, to burn the dead. When Toregg returns, he does so with Tormund’s rearguard.

The stream was no more than a trickle by the time Toregg emerged from the wood. With him rode a dozen mounted warriors armed with spears and swords. “My rear guard,” Tormund said, with a gap-toothed smile. “You crows have rangers. So do we. Them I left in camp in case we were attacked before we all got out.”
“Your best men.” (aDwD, Jon XII)

This rearguard’s job all day was to guard the sick and weak at the camp, not from attack by say the Weeper, but the Others. The risk or possibility of that happening was this real in Tormund’s mind. And guess who is one of the men of Tormund’s rearguard?

Borroq_by_Yapattack
Borroq, by Yapattack

Amongst the riders came one man afoot, with some big beast trotting at his heels. A boar, Jon saw. A monstrous boar. Twice the size of Ghost, the creature was covered with coarse black hair, with tusks as long as a man’s arm. Jon had never seen a boar so huge or ugly. The man beside him was no beauty either; hulking, black-browed, he had a flat nose, heavy jowls dark with stubble, small black close-set eyes.
Borroq.” Tormund turned his head and spat.
“A skinchanger.” It was not a question. Somehow he knew.(aDwD, Jon XII)

Borroq is not just some skinchanger amongst thousands of Free Folk who followed Tormund. He is one of Tormund’s best men and part of the rearguard who was left to guard in case the Others decided to attack. Now, why would Tormund have a skinchanger and his boar remain behind to keep watch for any sign of the Others? Might it be, because his boar would “smell” the Others sooner than humans would? Because he would be the first able to warn people?

Borroq and his boar are often met with suspicion by readers and Jon. Certainly, George is using certain stereotypical situations for people to dislike him and his boar. First, Tormund turns and spits after speaking his name, and Ghost bares his teeth in a silent snarl, standing protectively in front of Jon once he smells the boar.

Ghost turned his head. The falling snow had masked the boar’s scent, but now the white wolf had the smell. He padded out in front of Jon, his teeth bared in a silent snarl. (aDwD, Jon XII)

This reminds us of Grey Wind when he was aggressively protective of Robb at their arrival at the Twins, before the Red Wedding.

Grey Wind edged forward, tail stiff, watching through slitted eyes of dark gold. When the Freys were a half-dozen yards away Catelyn heard him growl, a deep rumble that seemed almost one with rush of the river. Robb looked startled. “Grey Wind, to me. To me!” Instead the direwolf leapt forward, snarling. (aSoS, Catelyn VI)

George is using our memory of Catelyn’s warning to Robb to keep Grey Wind by his side to sniff out those who may do him harm to make us distrust the boar and Borroq. This only works as a superficial comparison. George RR Martin did his research as a writer when it comes to wolf body language, and both he and his wife are long time sponsors and supporters of wolf sanctuaries. As a consequence George always makes sure to write any of the direwolves’ vocalisations and body language to fit with that of real wolves.

Take Grey Wind’s behavior against Black Walder and the Freys they meet upon arrival at the Twins for example. The stiff tail matches that of a wolf considering the other a threat. Slitting the eyes is an expression of suspicion and fear. A deep rumbling growl is an extremely aggressive warning. And it is followed by a leap forward. Grey Wind is therefore correctly described as regarding Black Walder as a very hostile threat and behaves accordingly.

wolf body language

While Ghost puts himself in between the boar and Jon, he does not leap, but pads forward. This is more befitting with dominant and confident behavior. Without any particular mention of hackles being raised or specifying the tail’s position, we can therefore regard Ghost’s snarl as a caution or warning towards the boar – “You behave, for this is my pack!” and “You’ll have to go through me if you mean Jon any harm.” This snarl is only meant for the boar, not Borroq. This is lightyears away from Grey Wind’s leaping, rumbling growl, stiff tail and slitted eyes towards the Freys.

Tormund reminds us that Ghost’s protective stance against the giant boar is a natural one.

Boars and wolves,” said Tormund. “Best keep that beast o’ yours locked up tonight. I’ll see that Borroq does the same with his pig.” He glanced up at the darkening sky. “Them’s the last, and none too soon. It’s going to snow all night, I feel it. Time I had a look at what’s on t’other side of all that ice.” (aDwD, Jon XII)

It is to be expected and natural that Ghost considers Borroq’s unknown boar a potential threat, without assuming something nefarious. Now let us inspect the boar’s response to this: the boar is perfectly well behaved and refrains from responding in kind to either Ghost or Jon.

Wait a minute, you might think by now, “Did the boar not threaten Jon at some point?” You are thinking of a moment that occurs far later in the interaction sequence, and it is actually unrelated to either Ghost or Jon. Just when Borroq is about to pass through the gate as the very last of the Free Folk, the last of Tormund’s rearguard, does the boar appear to be close to charging something or someone.

The skinchanger stopped ten yards away. His monster pawed at the mud, snuffling. A light powdering of snow covered the boar’s humped black back. He gave a snort and lowered his head, and for half a heartbeat Jon thought he was about to charge. To either side of him, his men lowered their spears. (aDwD, Jon XII)

The boar does this shortly after snuffling. So, we can safely conclude that this was in response to a smell he picked up. If this was a response to Ghost’s smell, the boar should have done so far earlier: when Ghost put himself between Jon and the boar. This is why we can rule out the boar wanting to charge either Jon or Ghost. So what did he smell? We are told that a light powder snow covers the boar. And since it is snowing, the snow would also drop on the ground. So, could it be the Others that the boar smells? This seems the likeliest answer, for Borroq warns Jon that “they” are coming, shortly after.

“You close it good and tight. They’re coming, crow.” He smiled as ugly a smile as Jon had ever seen and made his way to the gate. The boar stalked after him. The falling snow covered up their tracks behind them. (aDwD, Jon XII)

Because he has an ugly smile, readers tend to consider this as some nasty taunt or joke by Borroq. However, as I point out, the man is just doing the job he is supposed to do as a skinchanger rearguard. He goes through as last, and warns Jon that his boar just smelled the Others coming for them. Jon and his guardsmen mistook the target of the boar’s alarm. And Borroq’s sole crime in his introduction scene is being ugly, which is not really a crime, is it? Instead, it is quite a typical trap of George Martin to mislead the reader.

Snow! Snow! Snow!

So, once we scratch away the layer of misdirection, Borroq and his boar plant the seeds that animals can smell the Others. George has refrained from explicitly confirming this in the books as published. But the recent finds in the Cushing Library at Texas A &M University of the draft versions for aFfC and aDwD of 2004 has Ghost confirming how Others smell to him in one of Jon’s wolf dreams.

With the cliff between them, he could not sense his brother, but sometimes when he padded down the long cold burrow under the ice and poked his nose through the hard black bars, he could feel him. The snow was falling where his brother was, covering all the woods in white. And there were hunters near, living men and dead men, and the ones who wore the shapes of men but smelled only of cold. (aFfC draft 2004, Jon I)

The “cliff” that Ghost references in this quote is the “Wall”. On the one hand, this draft version confirms that the magical ward prevents Ghost from “sensing” Summer north of the Wall, as long as Ghost is south of it. And it confirms that Ghost can recognize living men from wights and from Others by smell. He is aware that the Others are not actually men at all, but only wear the shape of men and they smell only of the cold. There are several main reasons why this draft version got scrapped:

  • It is too much on the nose (pun intended) about the Wall’s magical interference with sensing who is north of the Wall.
  • It is a huge reveal about the Others “wearing” a humanoid shape (see From Sandkings to Nightqueens).
  • Once George knew he would end Jon’s arc of aDwD in the cliffhanger he did, it is only logical that he pulled such an early explicit confirmation that Ghost knows what Others smell like. Instead he gave us a hint to it via Borroq’s boar in Jon’s penultimate chapter.
  • It creates a situation where the magical ward of the Wall can not only prevent sensing someone or something, but can prevent smell, and thus a potential physical paradox.

You may remember Ghost as nearly taking a bite out of one of Jon’s guards as well as Ghost sniffing or approaching Bowen Marsh after his visit with Jon. The common interpretation of both these scenes is that Ghost is acting hostile to conspirators who plan to assassinate Jon Snow that evening. This interpretation is wrong and does not hold up under closer scrutiny, both for wolf body language and the fact that Ghost becomes aggressive even towards Jon himself. Here is the complete scene about Jon’s two guards standing outside out of fear of Ghost’s wild and aggressive behavior.

Jon Snow with Ghost by Michael Komarck
Jon Snow with Ghost and Mormont’s raven, by Michael Komarck

Outside the armory, Mully and the Flea stood shivering at guard. “Shouldn’t you be inside, out of this wind?” Jon asked.
“That’d be sweet, m’lord,” said Fulk the Flea, “but your wolf’s in no mood for company today.”
Mully agreed. “He tried to take a bite o’ me, he did.”
“Ghost?” Jon was shocked.
“Unless your lordship has some other white wolf, aye. I never seen him like this, m’lord. All wild-like, I mean.” (aDwD, Jon XIII)

The above quote is the scene readers tend to remember, and the quote that will be used by theorists to argue for example that Mully is one of the conspiritors. But that quote cut off much too early. Jon enters and experiences this:

He was not wrong, as Jon discovered for himself when he slipped inside the doors. The big white direwolf would not lie still. He paced from one end of the armory to the other, past the cold forge and back again. “Easy, Ghost,” Jon called. “Down. Sit, Ghost. Down.” Yet when he made to touch him, the wolf bristled and bared his teeth. It’s that bloody boar. Even in here, Ghost can smell his stink. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

When Jon enters the forge, Ghost is pacing in agitation. And when Jon himself attempts to calm Ghost, Ghost bristles and bares his teeth at Jon. We can conclude that Ghost is restless and extremely upset over something, enough to be aggressive to Jon himself, but I think I can get everybody to agree at least that Jon is not conspiring to kill himself, right? So, Ghost’s behavior in this scene and thus earlier to Mully is not related to a conspiracy to assassinate Jon.

Jon blames it on Ghost being able to smell Borroq’s boar. But if this was true, then his behavior here is far more aggressive with the boar at a safe distance, than when he actually faced the boar north of the Wall, or why he would display this behavior only now, when Borroq’s boar has been within the vicinity for days, and also afterwards when Ghost is much calmer. Nor does it explain the alarmed behavior of Mormont’s raven.

Mormont’s raven seemed agitated too. “Snow,” the bird kept screaming. “Snow, snow, snow.” (aDwD, Jon XIII)

Notice how the raven repeats the word snow four times. Because Samwell taught the ravens to say Snow, Jon’s name, we are bound to assume that is who the raven is referring to. But the raven could also just mean the white stuff falling from the sky. If so, then Ghost and the raven are aggressive and agitated because of what they smell in association to the snow, just like Borroq’s boar seemed to do.

Right before Jon arrived at the forge and the two guards outside, Jon looks at the Wall and the sky above the Wall. He notices clear signs of a snow sky.

He glanced up past the King’s Tower. The Wall was a dull white, the sky above it whiter. A snow sky. “Just pray we do not get another storm.” (aDwD, Jon XIII)

Wallpaper of the Wall
the Wall, author unknown (contact me for credit)

We can determine the source direction of this snow sky is the north: someone standing outside in Castle Black looking at the Wall and the sky above it, must be looking in the northern direction. So, with the precedent of the behavior of Borroq’s boar in the back of our mind, we can see that a snow sky floating in from the north direction is a valid potential cause of Ghost’s aggression, even towards Jon, and for Mormont’s raven screaming snow repeatedly.

Let me make clear, that I am not proposing that Ghost or the raven fear the snow itself. Jon observed far earlier that Ghost actually likes fresh snow.

At the base of the Wall he found Ghost rolling in a snowbank. The big white direwolf seemed to love fresh snow. (aDwD, Jon VI)

It is not the snow itself that sets off alarm bells, but the Others who come with this particular snowstorm rolling in from the north (or caused it).

“What about the Others?”
“[…] The Others come when it is cold, most of the tales agree. Or else it gets cold when they come. Sometimes they appear during snowstorms and melt away when the skies clear. […]” (aFfC, Samwell I; and aDwD, Jon II)

So, I propose that Ghost and Mormont’s raven are agitated and alarmed, because they smell the Others being near to the Wall.

Let us now test this working hypothesis for their behavior against their later behavior throughout the day. Shortly after this scene, Jon has Satin fetch Marsh and Yarwick to visit his solar in order to discuss their needs, his plan to man as many castles as he can at the Wall and how to save the survivors at Hardhome.

Jon shooed [Mormont’s raven] off, had Satin start a fire, then sent him out after Bowen Marsh and Othell Yarwyck. “Bring a flagon of mulled wine as well.”
“Three cups, m’lord?”
“Six. Mully and the Flea look in need of something warm. So will you.” […]
Marsh entered snuffling, Yarwyck dour. “Another storm,” the First Builder announced. “How are we to work in this? I need more builders.” (aDwD, Jon XIII)

Jon has his fruitless exchange with both men, and they depart. When Bowen and Othel pass Ghost he sniffs them.

Satin helped them back into their cloaks. As they walked through the armory, Ghost sniffed at them, his tail upraised and bristling. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

This sniffing and bristling is often interpreted as Ghost expressing suspicion of Marsh and Yarwick. But a suspicious wolf would NOT raise his tail vertical. Instead he would narrow his eyes, flatten his ears and the tail would point straight outward, parallel to the floor or ground (like Grey Wind). Ghost’s described posture towards Bowen Marsh is that of dominance. When the tail alone bristles and goes vertically up, without wagging, a wolf is asserting a non-aggressive, relaxed form of dominion, and certainly not expressing suspicion. Marsh or Yarwyck do not even provoke one of Ghost’s silent snarls. Ghost’s wolf body language is neither aggressive or suspicious, just dominance. 

So, on the one hand Bowen Marsh’s plan to assassinate Jon seems to not yet have been formed at this point. This only emphasizes how unlikely it was that Ghost’s actual aggression towards Jon and Mully was related to a mutiny plot.

On the other hand, Ghost not being aggressive anymore seems odd in light of my snow-smell hypothesis: if the raven and Ghost were agitated because of the smell of snow, then should they not remain such or become even more aggressive when it actually starts to snow? Not, if the winds have turned so that Ghost and the raven are not downwind anymore. And what do we learn when Bowen and Yarwyck open the door?

The snow was falling heavily outside. “Wind’s from the south,” Yarwyck observed. “It’s blowing the snow right up against the Wall. See?” He was right. The switchback stair was buried almost to the first landing, Jon saw, and the wooden doors of the ice cells and storerooms had vanished behind a wall of white. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

It is a snowstorm alright, except the wind is now blowing from the south, blowing the snow up against the Wall. In other words, the northern winds that blew snow across the Wall, have turned. This means that the Others are now downwind and cannot be smelled anymore by Ghost or the raven. Hence, Ghost and the raven cease to be aggressive or agitated.

The hypothesis holds up to later scenes with Ghost and the raven. When Jon leaves for the Shield Hall with Tormund and his other two guards, after hours of planning with Tormund over the Pink Letter, Ghost is perfectly calm, wanting to pad along with Jon.

Horse and Rory had replaced Fulk and Mully at the armory door with the change of watch. “With me,” Jon told them, when the time came. Ghost would have followed as well, but as the wolf came padding after them, Jon grabbed him by the scruff of his neck and wrestled him back inside. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

There is nothing in the direwolf’s behavior that is cause for alarm. Meanwhile Mormont’s raven is making jokes around Tormund, when Jon and Tormund discuss Selyse’s plans to wed Gerrick Kingsblood’s daughters to three of her Queen’s men, shortly before Clydas gives Jon the Pink Letter.

“He has a little red cock to go with all that red hair, that’s what he has. Raymund Redbeard and his sons died at Long Lake, thanks to your bloody Starks and the Drunken Giant. Not the little brother. Ever wonder why they called him the Red Raven?” Tormund’s mouth split in a gap-toothed grin. “First to fly the battle, he was. ‘Twas a song about it, after. The singer had to find a rhyme for craven, so …” He wiped his nose. “If your queen’s knights want those girls o’ his, they’re welcome to them.”
Girls,” squawked Mormont’s raven. “Girls, girls.”
That set Tormund to laughing all over again. “Now there’s a bird with sense. How much do you want for him, Snow? I gave you a son, the least you could do is give me the bloody bird.” (aDwD, Jon XIII)

So, George only wrote Ghost and the raven as alarmed and aggressive even to Jon, when the snow sky was gathering above the Wall, coming from the north, and both animals relax once the wind blows from the south and are absolutely calm by late afternoon or dusk. The mutiny plot cannot explain this behavior whatsoever, whereas the cold smell of the Others north of the Wall explains it well, including when the winds turn. The animals were only aggressive when they were downwind of the Others, but relaxed when they were not downwind anymore. This then becomes the circumstantial evidence to the Others being at the other side of the Wall at Castle Black at the moment when Bowen Marsh and his fellow mutineers attempt to kill Jon.

The Cold

While snow is only sometimes a sign of the Others, they always come with the cold or the cold comes with them. Cold is exactly the last that Jon experiences by the end of his last chapter.

Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks. “For the Watch.” He punched Jon in the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it.
Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger’s hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold night air the wound was smoking. “Ghost,” he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end. When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold … (aDwD, Jon XIII)

Jon can only feel the cold at the end, never even the fourth knife, which is weird given the three prior wounds: a graze at the neck, a stab at the belly, and one between the shoulder. Of these three only the belly stab can be potentially mortal, but it would take hours and hours to die from it. The belly stab is the wound that smokes, which can only happen in extreme cold. In the infamous prologue of aGoT, Gared explains how the cold causes a numbness to sensations.

“Nothing burns like the cold. But only for a while. Then it gets inside you and starts to fill you up, and after a while you don’t have the strength to fight it. It’s easier just to sit down or go to sleep. They say you don’t feel any pain toward the end.” (aGoT, Prologue)

Of course, the process that Gared explains normally takes hours. In Jon’s case the sensations follow one another in rapid succession, like some form of flash freeze.

Any scene with wights or others has always involved a drop in temperature because of northern winds, and sudden cooling or extreme cold when they are near. And it is just so in aGoT‘s Prologue. All day prior to Waymar’s fateful duel with the Other, a cold northern wind blew.

A cold wind was blowing out of the north, and it made the trees rustle like living things. All day, Will had felt as though something were watching him, something cold and implacable that loved him not. (aGoT, Prologue)

Waymar Royce by Christof Grobelski
Waymar Royce by Christof Grobelski

When Will glimpses the pale shapes gliding through, Waymar asks him why it is so cold all of a sudden in a manner it was not before.

Will saw movement from the corner of his eye. Pale shapes gliding through the wood. He turned his head, glimpsed a white shadow in the darkness. Then it was gone. “Can you see anything?” [Waymar] was turning in a slow circle, suddenly wary, his sword in hand. He must have felt them, as Will felt them. There was nothing to see. “Answer me! Why is it so cold?It was cold. Shivering, Will clung more tightly to his perch. (aGoT, Prologue)

Will also describes Waymar’s physical responses, worded in a manner that we are inclined to interprete them as an expression of emotion, while they are more than likely physical reflexes to the cold.

Will heard the breath go out of Ser Waymar Royce in a long hiss. “Come no farther,” the lordling warned. His voice cracked like a boy’s. He threw the long sable cloak back over his shoulders, to free his arms for battle, and took his sword in both hands. The wind had stopped. It was very cold. […] Ser Waymar met him bravely. “Dance with me then.” He lifted his sword high over his head, defiant. His hands trembled from the weight of it, or perhaps from the cold. (aGoT, Prologue)

Waymar’s voice likely cracks from the cold. Even the hiss of his breadth may be due to the cold and having trouble with breathing.

Curiously, Waymar uses a challenge to the Other that is only phrased in that same way once: by Jon. When he sees snowflakes dance as he is about to go through the gate back into Castle Black after all the wildlings went through, and Borroq warned Jon that they are coming, Jon translates their air dance as a challenge by the Others for Jon to dance with them.

A snowflake danced upon the air. Then another. Dance with me, Jon Snow, he thought. You’ll dance with me anon. (aDwD, Jon XII)

Dancing and the dance is a regular euphemism throughout the series for war, a fight or duel. But this particular phrase is unique for Waymar and Jon alone, and both tied to the Others. Alys Karstark makes a close remark, but it is conditional only – “you could dance with me“, after which she adds, “You danced with me anon.”

And of course, Waymar’s wound steams like Jon’s.

The pale sword bit through the ringmail beneath his arm. The young lord cried out in pain. Blood welled between the rings. It steamed in the cold, and the droplets seemed red as fire where they touched the snow. (aGoT, Prologue)

Blue-eyed dead Othor and Jafer were carried through the gate into Castle Black on Jeor’s orders, instead of being burned north of the Wall. When Jon and the rest of the Night’s Watch ride for the Wall with the two wighted dead men, it is still a hot summer day.

The day was grey, damp, overcast, the sort of day that made you wish for rain. No wind stirred the wood; the air hung humid and heavy, and Jon’s clothes clung to his skin. It was warm. Too warm. The Wall was weeping copiously, had been weeping for days, and sometimes Jon even imagined it was shrinking. (aGoT, Jon VII)

After Jeor tells him of the news about Ned Stark having been arrested for treason, Jon leaves the tower to have his dinner at the mess hall. By then a north wind has rises and it is much colder.

The wind was rising, and it seemed colder in the yard than it had when he’d gone in. Spirit summer was drawing to an end. […] A north wind had begun to blow by the time the sun went down. Jon could hear it skirling against the Wall and over the icy battlements as he went to the common hall for the evening meal.(aGoT, Jon VII)

When Jon sits in his cell after attacking Alliser Thorne, we witness Ghost snarling at Jon and having scratched gouges into the door to get out, combined with Jon experiencing an extreme cold.

When he woke, his legs were stiff and cramped and the candle had long since burned out. Ghost stood on his hind legs, scrabbling at the door. Jon was startled to see how tall he’d grown. “Ghost, what is it?” he called softly. The direwolf turned his head and looked down at him, baring his fangs in a silent snarl. Has he gone mad? Jon wondered. “It’s me, Ghost,” he murmured, trying not to sound afraid. Yet he was trembling, violently. When had it gotten so cold? Ghost backed away from the door. There were deep gouges where he’d raked the wood. Jon watched him with mounting disquiet. “There’s someone out there, isn’t there?” he whispered. Crouching, the direwolf crept backward, white fur rising on the back of his neck. The guard, he thought, they left a man to guard my door, Ghost smells him through the door, that’s all it is. Slowly, Jon pushed himself to his feet. He was shivering uncontrollably, wishing he still had a sword. (aGoT, Jon VII)

Of course the crucial aspect here is that Othor and Jafer were already wighted before they were carried south of the Wall.

Dywen sucked at his wooden teeth. “Might be they didn’t die here. Might be someone brought ’em and left ’em for us. A warning, as like.” The old forester peered down suspiciously. “And might be I’m a fool, but I don’t know that Othor never had no blue eyes afore.”
Ser Jaremy looked startled. “Neither did Flowers,” he blurted, turning to stare at the dead man. (aGoT, Jon VII)

So, in aGoT, we have a situation where “sleeping” (inactive) wights can be carried south of the Wall. And while first reads may give a reader the impression that Othor and Jafer are acting on memory, the north winds rising suggests that the Others are directing them remotely from north of the Wall. The Wall may be able to prevent an active wight and Others from crossing, but it does not prevent the Others from using their magic, once a wight is south of the Wall.

Wights during the Battle of the Fist of the First Men (non cropped)_zippo514
Battle of the Fist of the First Man, by zippo14

At the Fist of the First Men, Chett experiences an extreme cold the day prior to the attack of the wights and how one of the dogs snarls at him.

The day was grey and bitter cold, and the dogs would not take the scent. The big black bitch had taken one sniff at the bear tracks, backed off, and skulked back to the pack with her tail between her legs. The dogs huddled together miserably on the riverbank as the wind snapped at them. Chett felt it too, biting through his layers of black wool and boiled leather. It was too bloody cold for man or beast, but here they were. […] “Seven hells.” He gave the leashes a hard yank to get the dogs’ attention. “Track, you bastards. That’s a bear print. You want some meat or no? Find!” But the hounds only huddled closer, whining. Chett snapped his short lash above their heads, and the black bitch snarled at him. (aSoS, Prologue)

At night, as Chett lies waiting for the hour to kill Samwell, it starts to snow and his beard is frozen with icicles, not unlike Tormund’s in Jon’s last chapter of aDwD. And here we also have ravens muttering and quorking snow.

Ice caked his beard all around his mouth. […] He could hardly breathe. […] He got to his knees, and something wet and cold touched his nose. Chett looked up. Snow was falling. He could feel tears freezing to his cheeks. […] It was a heavy fall, thick white flakes coming down all about him.  […] The snow was falling so heavily that he got lost among the tents, but finally he spotted the snug little windbreak the fat boy had made for himself between a rock and the raven cages. […] One of the ravens quorked. “Snow,” another muttered, peering through the bars with black eyes. The first added a “Snow” of its own. (aSoS, Prologue)

The wildling [Tormund] arrived red-faced, shouting for a horn of ale and something hot to eat. He had ice in his beard and more crusting his mustache. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

This is the first precedent where we witness snow as a phenomenon in association with the Others and the wights they direct.. More, the aSoS Prologue also involves an assassination plot: Samwell and Jeor were to be killed. And later, Samwell’s POV in aSoS proves that the attack involves more than zombies alone: he meets with an Other as they flee from the Fist and ends up killing it with dragonglass.

The Other_by Dejan Delic
The Other by Dejan Delic

The wind sighed through the trees, driving a fine spray of snow into their faces. The cold was so bitter that Sam felt naked. […] There was only the [torch] Grenn carried, the flames rising from it like pale orange silks. He could see through them, to the black beyond. That torch will burn out soon, he thought, and we are all alone, without food or friends or fire. But that was wrong. They weren’t alone at all. […] Hoarfrost covered [the horse] like a sheen of frozen sweat, and a nest of stiff black entrails dragged from its open belly. On its back was a rider pale as ice. […] [Sam] was so scared he might have pissed himself all over again, but the cold was in him, a cold so savage that his bladder felt frozen solid. The Other slid gracefully from the saddle to stand upon the snow. Sword-slim it was, and milky white. Its armor rippled and shifted as it moved, and its feet did not break the crust of the new-fallen snow. […] The wights had been slow clumsy things, but the Other was light as snow on the wind. It slid away from Paul’s axe, armor rippling, and its crystal sword twisted and spun and slipped between the iron rings of Paul’s mail, through leather and wool and bone and flesh. It came out his back with a hissssssssssss and Sam heard Paul say, “Oh,” as he lost the axe. Impaled, his blood smoking around the sword, the big man tried to reach his killer with his hands and almost had before he fell. (aSoS, Samwell I)

Bran near Bloodraven's cave
Bran arriving at Bloodraven’s cave, Game of Thrones show

We get similar signs in Bran’s chapter with Coldhands in the final stretch before the entrance of Bloodraven’s cave: a raven screaming, sharp cold, and a bristling Summer.

Something about the way the raven screamed sent a shiver running up Bran’s spine. […] But the air was sharp and cold and full of fear. Even Summer was afraid. The fur on his neck was bristling. […] “They are here.” (aDwD, Bran II)

Hodor’s beard and mustache is iced.

Icicles hung from the brown briar of [Hodor’s] beard, and his mustache was a lump of frozen snot, glittering redly in the light of sunset. (aDwD, Bran II)

Bran mentions how Summer can smell Varamyr’s wolf pack when Summer is downwind from them. So, here George suggests the concept of smelling a threat when the wolf is downwind.

“Where?” Meera’s voice was hushed.
“Close. I don’t know. Somewhere.”
“Those wolves are close as well,” Bran warned them. “The ones that have been following us. Summer can smell them whenever we’re downwind.” (aDwD, Bran II)

And when Meera comments that the way looks clear, she sounds like readers thinking, George does not show us explicitly that Others are present north of the Wall at Castle Black.

Meera eyed the hill above. “The way looks clear.”
“Looks,” the ranger muttered darkly. “Can you feel the cold? There’s something here. Where are they?” (aDwD, Bran II)

But Coldhands corrects Meera and the reader: if someone feels an extreme cold, then they are there.

And when Bran’s tears freeze, Coldhands warns that if they are not here yet, they will be soon.

Bran blinked back a tear and felt it freeze upon his cheek. Coldhands took Hodor by the arm. “The light is fading. If they’re not here now, they will be soon. Come.” (aDwD, Bran II)

While Jon notes that Bowen Marsh has tears streaming from his eyes, we can put question marks behind the fact whether these tears are actually streaming and not instead frozen icicles on his cheeks. Meanwhile what causes Bowen Marsh to weep to begin with? Extreme cold dehydrates our eyes, prompting a response by our tear ducts to produce tears to water the eyes. This is the reason why Chett and Bran (and Hodor) produce tears. It is merely our assumption that Bowen is weeping for emotional reasons, instead as a physiological reflex to the extreme cold that Jon describes.

Note that the wight attack in Bran’s chapter happens in front of a cave with a magical ward like that of the Wall. And while the wights and the Others are unable to pass the magical ward into the cave, in Bran’s last chapter we learn that more wights keep gathering in front of the entrance and snow is piling up like a wall against the cave.

Snowflakes drifted down soundlessly to cloak the soldier pines and sentinels in white. The drifts grew so deep that they covered the entrance to the caves, leaving a white wall that Summer had to dig through whenever he went outside to join his pack and hunt. (aDwD, Bran III)

Both with the magical ward and this white snow wall in front of the entrance building, George is setting up a further parallel between the cave and the Wall.

Buried Zombies

Jon had two dead wildlings carried from the weirwood grove north of the Wall into Castle Black.

The Hornfoot man could not sit a saddle and had to be tied over the back of a garron like a sack of grain; so too the pale-faced crone with the stick-thin limbs, whom they had not been able to rouse. They did the same with the two corpses, to the puzzlement of Iron Emmett. “They will only slow us, my lord,” he said to Jon. “We should chop them up and burn them.”
“No,” said Jon. “Bring them. I have a use for them.” […] The living wildlings Jon sent off to have their wounds and frostbites tended. Some hot food and warm clothes would restore most of them, he hoped, though the Hornfoot man was like to lose both feet. The corpses he consigned to the ice cells. (aDwD, Jon VII)

Jon keeps them in the ice cells of the Wall and explains to Bowen Marsh he hopes they will turn and become wights in order to learn more about wights.

Finally the Lord Steward cleared his throat. “Your lordship knows best, I am sure. Might I ask about these corpses in the ice cells? They make the men uneasy. And to keep them under guard? Surely that is a waste of two good men, unless you fear that they …”
“… will rise? I pray they do.”
Septon Cellador paled. “Seven save us.” Wine dribbled down his chin in a red line. “Lord Commander, wights are monstrous, unnatural creatures. Abominations before the eyes of the gods. You … you cannot mean to try to talk with them?”
Can they talk?” asked Jon Snow. “I think not, but I cannot claim to know. Monsters they may be, but they were men before they died. How much remains? The one I slew was intent on killing Lord Commander Mormont. Plainly it remembered who he was and where to find him.” […] “My lord father used to tell me that a man must know his enemies. We understand little of the wights and less about the Others. We need to learn.” (aDwD, Jon VIII)

The two corpses in the ice cells are mentioned a third and last time in Jon’s last chapter, in relation to the snowstorm.

The switchback stair was buried almost to the first landing, Jon saw, and the wooden doors of the ice cells and storerooms had vanished behind a wall of white. “How many men do we have in ice cells?” he asked Bowen Marsh.
“Four living men. Two dead ones.” […] The corpses. Jon had almost forgotten them. He had hoped to learn something from the bodies they’d brought back from the weirwood grove, but the dead men had stubbornly remained dead. […] “What would the lord commander like us to do with his corpses?” asked Marsh when the living men had been moved.
“Leave them.” If the storm entombed them, well and good. He would need to burn them eventually, no doubt, but for the nonce they were bound with iron chains inside their cells. That, and being dead, should suffice to hold them harmless. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

Since the rule of three applies, readers speculate that we will see these two rise as wights at some point. And the readers who do suspect that the men screaming in the last paragraphs while Wyck and Marsh attempt to assassinate Jon are doing so on account of the appearance of wights, will often propose these two have been wighted and are wreaking havoc.

These two corpses serve to plant the seed of Others wightifying corpses at Castle Black, but I do not regard them to be the lethal threat: the iron chains will keep them in position. In the last mention of them though, George gives us a hint how to figure out the imminent threat: the snowstorm has created a wall of white, the same way a wall of snow was created at Bloodraven’s cave in Bran’s last chapter. When Bran traversed the fresh snow towards the cave in his second chapter, Bran and his friends are attacked by wights buried beneath the fresh snow that fell until three days before.

A hand, he saw, as the rest of the wight came bursting from beneath the snow. Hodor kicked at it, slamming a snow-covered heel full into the thing’s face, but the dead man did not even seem to feel it. Then the two of them were grappling, punching and clawing at each other, sliding down the hill. […] All around him, wights were rising from beneath the snow. (aDwD, Bran II)

And this brings me back to Borroq’s boar. Aside from Jon blaming Ghost’s aggression on Borroq’s boar, Jon’s thirteenth chapter also tells us that Borroq and his boar reside at Castle Black’s lichyard, and that the boar has been rooting in the soil of the graves.

Until such time, Borroq had taken up residence in one of the ancient tombs beside the castle lichyard. The company of men long dead seemed to suit him better than that of the living, and his boar seemed happy rooting amongst the graves, well away from other animals. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

Yes, Castle Black has a lichyard. In fact, George introduced us to the lichyard both early in aFfC and aDwD, when Gilly, Samwell and maester Aemon depart to Eastwatch. In Craster and His Wives I explain how Gilly serves as a stand-in character for the corpse queen (or the Mother of the Others), and having her be a commanding presence in the scene at the lichyard creates a visual pun of Gilly as corpse queen. The lichyard thus has already been framed in connection to the Others upon introduction.

While most of us did not forget about the two corpses in the ice cells or the boar, the lichyard has slipped the minds of most of us. Most readers hardly registered that the boar has basically been loosening the soil of those graves. Hmmm, not unlike Mance opening graves in search of a certain horn.

Ygritte: “[…] We opened half a hundred graves and let all those shades loose in the world, and never found the Horn of Joramun to bring this cold thing down!” (aSoS, Jon IV)

And what is certain: while septon Cellador is horrified over two chained corpses in an ice cell, neither he or any other, including Jon, had the wisdom to burn the hundreds if not thousands “men long dead” in there. So the two chained corpses in the ice cell are not the danger, but the potential army (company) of wights lying in wait beneath loosened soil are. Just as in Bran’s arc, the buried wights are the threat.

Another pointer to the true threat in parallel to Bran’s chapter comes from Mel.

“Borroq is the least of your concerns. This ranging …” (aDwD, Jon XIII)

Mel’s phrase is a parallel to Coldhands’ reply to Bran worrying over Varamyr’s wolf pack that Summer can smell when downwind to them.

“Wolves are the least of our woes,” said Coldhands. (aDwD, Bran II)

Notice that Mel begins to say something about a ranging, before Jon interrupts her. Mel never gets to finish her sentence, so this was purposefully added as a reference to Coldhands who is often called the ranger by Bran. And both the wolf pack and the boar have in common that they are a skinchanger’s animals.

During Jon’s last meeting with Marsh and Yarwyck, we get a foreshadowing.

As for Borroq, Othell Yarwyck claimed the woods north of Stonedoor were full of wild boars. Who was to say the skinchanger would not make his own pig army? (aDwD, Jon XIII)

Othell does not call it a boar army, but a pig army. In Craster’s Black Blooded Curse, I argued that George equates pigs symbolically to humans and eating pork to cannibalism. The most glaring examples are:

Nearby, a small girl pulled carrots from a garden, naked in the rain, while two women tied a pig for slaughter. The animal’s squeals were high and horrible, almost human in their distress. (aCoK, Jon III)

When [Samwell] looked at the fire, he thought he saw Bannen sitting up, his hands coiling into fists as if to fight off the flames that were consuming him, but it was only for an instant, before the swirling smoke hid all. The worst thing was the smell, though. If it had been a foul unpleasant smell he might have stood it, but his burning brother smelled so much like roast pork that Sam’s mouth began to water, […] (aSoS, Samwell II)

And in the latter association to pork or pigs, George included the image of a dead man rising. So, by association the foreshadowed pig army implies an army of wights. The sole potential wight army rising south of the Wall are those unburned dead in the lichyard.

The Magical Ward

I have more hints and foreshadowing in sky descriptions that predict the appearance of some Others north of Castle Black during Jon’s last chapter, but I am reserving them for another essay of the Blood Seal Thesis. If the detective work of Ghost’s body language in relation to the weather analysis and the precedent of prior experiences with the Others are not enough for you to seriously consider the presence of the Others at the other side of the Wall when Wyck and Bowen Marsh attack Jon as a valid proposal, then sky descriptions will not persuade you either.

I may have managed to persuade you to consider the possibility that the Others are here and that an army of wights is rising from their uprooted graves, causing men to scream in the background of the assassination attempt. But there is also one huge caveat: there seems to be an enormous difference between the Others reactivating and directing wights like Othor and Jafer, who were already wighted long before they were carried through Castle Black’s tunnel by the Night’s Watch and wightifying the dead south of the Wall. After all, the Wall is not just a physical barrier, but a magical one too.

“The Wall. The Wall is more than just ice and stone, [Coldhands] said. There are spells woven into it . . . old ones, and strong. He cannot pass beyond the Wall.” It grew very quiet in the castle kitchen then. […] Beyond the gates the monsters live, and the giants and the ghouls, he remembered Old Nan saying, but they cannot pass so long as the Wall stands strong. So go to sleep, my little Brandon, my baby boy. You needn’t fear. There are no monsters here. (aSoS, Bran IV)

In fact, the magical ward is far more important than the physical barrier. Bloodraven’s cave has a similar ward, but the entrance allows the living to cross to and fro since there is no physical barrier.

“Can you feel the cold? There’s something here. Where are they?
Inside the cave?” suggested Meera.
“The cave is warded. They cannot pass.” The ranger used his sword to point. “You can see the entrance there. Halfway up, between the weirwoods, that cleft in the rock.”
“I see it,” said Bran. Ravens were flying in and out.
[…]
“There’s a passage there. Steep and twisty at first, a runnel through the rock. If you can reach it, you’ll be safe.”
“What about you?
The cave is warded.” (aDwD, Bran II)

How much this is a barrier I already emphasized in the Night’s King series, and I argued that one of the uses of the Night’s King to the corpse queen was as a smuggler to get her south of the Wall, like Davos had to smuggle Mel beyond the ward of the Storm’s End to birth her shadow assassin. It may not be a barrier against smell, wind and snow, but if it was never a barrier against the Others raising an army of the dead of a lichyard, it makes little sense the Others bothered with Othor and Jafer being carried through the Wall by the Night’s Watch. I expect the magical ward from preventing the Others to wightify anyone who was not yet a wight north of the Wall, even though it allows them to activate a sleeper wight.

In other words something must occur to the warding spell of the Wall, before the Others can raise the dead of the lichyard. The Blood Seal Thesis proposes that a warding spell must be locked in place with a blood seal. Since a seal is also a stamp, this implies that the warding spell becomes imprinted with that particular blood mix of the person shedding their blood to fixate it. As a consequence the seal can only be broken by shedding the blood of someone with a similar blood make up. In other words, the seal is a person. And obviously, I am proposing that Jon is a blood match and therefore the seal.

So, when Wyck grazes Jon’s neck and his blood drops onto the snow that was also blown against the ice of the Wall, the Wall’s warding spell was broken. The circumstantial evidence for the proposed concept of a Blood Seal is too expansive for this essay, but I will provide you with hints and references to the breaking of the magical ward and how this is tied to the foreshadowing of a wight army.

In the paragraph where Jon reveals to the reader that Borroq has made the lichyard his temporary residence with his boar, we also learn where Borroq is to live permanently.

The skinchanger [Borroq] was to accompany Soren Shieldbreaker to Stonedoor once the wayns carrying the Sealskinner‘s clan to Greenguard returned. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

It is quite doubtful whether Borroq and his boar will ever survive the night of Jon’s last chapter in aDwD to move to Stonedoor, so this plan only serves to give the reader hints, and the names used are eye opening: Shieldbreaker, Sealskinner, Greenguard and Stonedoor. In-world these are the names of two castles of the Night’s Watch and two names of prominent wildling leaders. The foreshadowing does not involve the actual locations or these two men, but the story these names foretell.

Let us start with the name Greenguard. The warding spells of the Wall, Storm’s End and Bloodraven’s cave are all attributed to children of the forest, who practice green magic.

“Legend has it that the giants helped raise the Wall, using their great strength to wrestle the blocks of ice into place. […] These same legends also say that the children of the forest—who did not themselves build walls of either ice or stone—would contribute their magic to the construction.” (tWoIaF – the Wall and Beyond: the Night’s Watch)

“A seventh castle he raised, most massive of all. Some said the children of the forest helped him build [Storm’s End], shaping the stones with magic; (aCoK, Catelyn III)

Hence we can say that a green guard is a green magic warding spell. And obviously in this case this is about the magical ward of the Wall. Though I do believe the conquering of Storm’s End by Aegon and the breach of Bloodraven’s cave may serve as a parallel in tWoW.

Ramsay_Moat_Cailin_by_gibilynx
Ramsay Bolton after Moat Cailin, by Gibilynx

In the foreshadowing the Sealskinner is on his way to this green guard, or the magical Wall. We recognize a reference to the blood seal concept that I propose in the first part. Meanwhile Skinner is the name of one of Ramsay’s Bastard Boys. Ramsay Bolton has several men-at-arms appointed by Roose to be of Ramsay’s service. Skinner was the one who flayed Theon’s fingers on Ramsay’s orders. He also claims that Ramsay killed his trueborn brother Domeric Bolton. It is possible that Skinner is one of the hunting party that may be on its way to Castle Black, but Skinner’s name is mostly yet another reference, to George’s novelette The Skin Trade. In that story, the Skinner is a supernatural shapeshifting assassin who in one of its shapes has knives for fingers. It uses mirrors as doors to traverse dimensions.

Skinner,” Steven called. The surface of the mirrors seemed to ripple and bulge, like a wave cresting on some quicksilver sea. The fog was thinning, Willie realized with sudden terror; he could see it clearer now, and he knew it could see him. And suddenly Willie Flambeaux knew what was happening, knew that when the fog cleared the mirrors wouldn’t be mirrors anymore; they’d be doors, doors, and the skinner would come…(Dreamsongs II, the Skin Trade)

The Skinner’s targets are werewolves on Steven’s orders. Steven has werewolf blood, but so pureblooded (inbred) that he himself cannot work the transformation from man into werewolf. But he discovered that when he wears the skin or pelt of another werewolf who can work the change, that he can steal their power for a short while. Both The Fattest Leech and Melanie Lot Seven have pointed out how Steven is a proto-Ramsay, while Willie Flambeaux (flaming sword), a werewolf of mutt descent (bastard) is a proto-Jon.

The above quote with Steven calling for the skinner to go after Willie via the mirrors follows a scene where Willie was wounded and his blood ended up on the mirrors of a funhouse.  

Willie looked into the mirrors. The reflections were gone. Willie, Steven, the moon, all gone. There was blood on the mirrors and they were full of fog, a silvery pale fog that shimmered as it moved. Something was moving through the fog, sliding from mirror to mirror to mirror, around and around. Something hungry that wanted to get out. (Dreamsongs II, the Skin Trade)

So, for aSoIaF, skinner serves as a double reference to both the supernatural Others as well as Ramsay, who flays people and steals first his brother’s birthright, then the Hornwood lands and finally Winterfell via a marriage to a fake wolf. And regardless of the real author of the Pink Letter, it was signed and “sealed” in Ramsay’s name.

Bastard, was the only word written outside the scroll. No Lord Snow or Jon Snow or Lord Commander. Simply Bastard. And the letter was sealed with a smear of hard pink wax. “You were right to come at once,” Jon said. You were right to be afraid. He cracked the seal, flattened the parchment, and read. (aDwD, Jon XIII)

That Pink Letter itself serves as a sealskinner. In my proposal of the blood seal concept, Jon himself is the blood seal that preserves the Wall’s green magical guard or ward. And the assassination attempt on Jon’s life occurs after he read the Pink Letter in the shield hall. And of course we can also see how the Sealskinner is a dual reference to the Others as supernatural beings coming through a mirror after the blood seal of the green guard is cracked.

The Shieldbreaker does not require much explanation. That leaves us with Stonedoor. The word door aligns with the Skinner reference: a mirror becomes a door. So why stone? Well, we tend to think of the Wall as being physically made from ice, but the Wall is made from earth, stone and ice. What happens if the magical ward is broken? Others can do with ice whatever they wish: dissolve it into mist for example. What remains of the Wall if they do? All that remains is stone section, and then the ice mirror has turned into a stone door. And without the ward or a cracked seal on the ward, the Others’ magic can raise that “pig army” from the graves. It is after all at Stonedoor that Yarwyck foretells Borroq might be able to raise a pig army.

So, basically that one sentence with those four foreshadowing references can be translated to mean that after the arrival of the Others and the Pink Letter to the Wall, the shield will be broken and turned into a stone door as well as an army of wights will rise from the lichyard. And since there is plenty of circumstantial evidence to support the proposal that the Others are at the other side of the Wall at Castle Black the day the Pink Letter arrived, the breaking of the shield of the ream occurs that very same night. (For an extensive analysis on hints and clues for the Blood Seal, see Quoth the Raven)

Conclusion (tl;tr)

Tormund reveals that the Others have nibbled at his thousands of wildlings during their trek south, and he is unwilling to reveal too much about them north of the Wall. The last wildlings that pass through the Wall are Tormund’s rearguard and best men. They are last as their main responsibility is to guard and keep other people alive. Borroq and his boar belong to Tormund’s rearguard and he is the very last wildling to pass through. We can safely assume this is because as skinchanger with far more experience with the Others than Jon, Borroq can raise the alarm the earliest when the Others are near. When the wild boar changes his stance to that of a charge, this is not related to Ghost or Jon, but immediately after the boar is snuffling the ground and snow is falling down. And this is followed by Borroq’ warning that the Others are coming.

The aggressive behavior of Ghost, including towards Jon, and Mormont’s raven acting in high alert is caused by them smelling the Others coming for Castle Black, for this behavior coincides with a snowsky rolling in from the north and any prior signs of the nearness of the Others. In these examples involving canines, the animal even turns or snarls at their caretaker. Later in the day, Ghost and the raven relax. This coincides with the wind turning, and blowing from the south. They are calmer and less aggressive from this point onwards, because the Others are now downwind, and neither Ghost or the raven can smell them anymore.

The proposals that Ghost and the raven are aggressive because of the plot to assassinate Jon are wrong. Ghost shows no aggression towards Bowen Marsh whatsoever, but relaxed dominance. Meanwhile Ghost nearly attacks Jon himself far ealier, when the snowsky was drifting in from the north.

Northern winds, snowfall, alarmed and aggressive, fearful animals, smoking wounds, extreme cold and the reflext from the tear ducts to water the eyes with tears freezing on the spot, and icicles on beard and mustache are all visible tell-tale signs that accompany a trap or attack by either themselves or wights. Since all these follow one after the other throughout Jon’s last day in aDwD, this mounts to a pile of circumstantial evidence to take the notion that the Others are present at the other side of the Wall quite serious.

On top of that we have numerous foreshadowing hints that not the two dead men chained in the ice cells are the danger, but the hundreds if not thousands forgotten dead brothers buried in the lichyard. Borroq’s boar has been rooting through the soil of those graves, thereby loosening the earth, making it easier for wights to rise from the lichyard. The few Others waiting at the other side of the Wall at Castle Black do not need to bring an army of wights from Hardhome. Once the magical ward of the Wall cracks or breaks, their magic can raise a lichyard ‘pig’ army. And this cracking or breaking is tied to the assassination attempt of Jon. It is thus entirely possible that the men screaming in the background while Wick slashes at Jon for a second time are screaming because dead men and dismembered arms come back to life.

Haldon, the Halfmaester

“I am Haldon, the healer in our little band of brothers. Some call me Halfmaester.” (aDwD, Tyrion III)

Every ragtag team has its maester and healer. Apart from tending the wounded, their role is that of the intellectual, who knows history, stories and believes to know the facts.

The Halfmaester’s cabin was the largest of the four. One wall was lined with bookshelves and bins stacked with old scrolls and parchments; another held racks of ointments, herbs, and potions. Golden light slanted through the wavy yellow glass of the round window. The furnishings included a bunk, a writing desk, a chair, a stool, and the Halfmaester’s cyvasse table, strewn with carved wooden pieces. (aDwD, Tyrion IV)

Haldon is shown to be very accomplished: a polyglot in languages, history, mathematics, …

The lesson began with languages. Young Griff spoke the Common Tongue as if he had been born to it, and was fluent in High Valyrian, the low dialects of Pentos, Tyrosh, Myr, and Lys, and the trade talk of sailors. The Volantene dialect was as new to him as it was to Tyrion, so every day they learned a few more words whilst Haldon corrected their mistakes. Meereenese was harder; its roots were Valyrian as well, but the tree had been grafted onto the harsh, ugly tongue of Old Ghis. […] Geometry followed languages. There the boy was less adroit, but Haldon was a patient teacher, and Tyrion was able to make himself of use as well. He had learned the mysteries of squares and circles and triangles from his father’s maesters at Casterly Rock, and they came back more quickly than he would have thought.  By the time they turned to history, Young Griff was growing restive. (aDwD, Tyrion IV)

Haldon can spar with Tyrion over history.

“No doubt. Well, Hugor Hill, answer me this. How did Serwyn of the Mirror Shield slay the dragon Urrax?”
“He approached behind his shield. Urrax saw only his own reflection until Serwyn had plunged his spear through his eye.”
Haldon was unimpressed. “Even Duck knows that tale. Can you tell me the name of the knight who tried the same ploy with Vhagar during the Dance of the Dragons?”
Tyrion grinned. “Ser Byron Swann. He was roasted for his trouble … only the dragon was Syrax, not Vhagar.”
“I fear that you’re mistaken. In The Dance of the Dragons, A True Telling, Maester Munkun writes—”
“—that it was Vhagar. Grand Maester Munkun errs. Ser Byron’s squire saw his master die, and wrote his daughter of the manner of it. His account says it was Syrax, Rhaenyra’s she-dragon, which makes more sense than Munken’s version. Swann was the son of a marcher lord, and Storm’s End was for Aegon. Vhagar was ridden by Prince Aemond, Aegon’s brother. Why should Swann want to slay her?” (aDwD, Tyrion III)

Except they are probably both wrong and even a primary source such as a squire may lie. In the essay on Serwyn of the Mirror Shield I argue that given Syrax’s whereabouts during the whole of the Dance and the hundreds of witnesses at the Dragonpit it could not have been Rhaenyra’s Syrax. Instead it was most likely Sunfyre while Lord Mooton had knights attempt to kill Aegon II’s wounded dragon. Tyrion is wrong to assume House Swann would only support the Greens because they are vassals to House Baratheon. Instead, House Swann is a house that typically divides their loyalties.

And Haldon is adept enough a cyvasse player to teach it.

Later, when Young Griff went up on deck to help Yandry with the sails and poles, Haldon set up his cyvasse table for their game. Tyrion watched with mismatched eyes, and said, “The boy is bright. You have done well by him. Half the lords in Westeros are not so learned, sad to say. Languages, history, songs, sums … a heady stew for some sellsword’s son.”
“A book can be as dangerous as a sword in the right hands,” said Haldon. “Try to give me a better battle this time, Yollo. You play cyvasse as badly as you tumble.”
I am trying to lull you into a false sense of confidence,” said Tyrion, as they arranged their tiles on either side of a carved wooden screen. “You think you taught me how to play, but things are not always as they seem. Perhaps I learned the game from the cheesemonger, have you considered that?”
“Illyrio does not play cyvasse.”
No, thought the dwarf, he plays the game of thrones, and you and Griff and Duck are only pieces, to be moved where he will and sacrificed at need, just as he sacrificed Viserys. “The blame must fall on you, then. If I play badly, it is your doing.” (aDwD, Tyrion IV)

Tyrion tells Haldon the truth when he warns Haldon that he is lulling the halfmaester into a false sense of confidence. Tyrion only pretended to be a bad player to ensnare Haldon in a bet to reveal the secret of Griff’s identity. Nevertheless, even when Tyrion played to win it required three hours of play.

It was three hours later when the little man finally crept back up on deck to empty his bladder. […] I need that skin of wine, the dwarf thought. His legs were cramped from squatting on that stool, and he felt so light-headed that he was lucky not to fall into the river. (aDwD, Tyrion IV)

Even if Tyrion bests Haldon in intellect and sources in some respect, Haldon is not just highly educated, but undoubtedly also a bright mind. Haldon can certainly give other maesters in Westeros a good run for their money. But ultimately this begs the question – why is Haldon only half a maester?

Half a Maester

At_the_gates_game_of_thrones_lcg_by_jcbarquet
At the Gates, by Juan Carlos Barquet

Whereas Pate in the prologue of aFfC will never earn his links to form a maester’s chains, we have no evidence that Haldon would have failed any of the subjects in the Citadel. Any House in Westeros would be so lucky to have Haldon teaching their children, take care of the ravens, etc. This is why readers who have speculated on the mystery about Haldon suggest the halfmaester may have committed an act in Oldtown for which the archmaesters expelled Haldon. Some propose Haldon may have dabbled in sorcery. Others propose a crime or having a mistress.

A mistress?

An affair or a mistress adoes not seem to fit Haldon’s character whatsoever. Whenever Tyrion expresses sexual desires, Haldon responds to it in ways as if it is an almost alien concept to him.

“Shy maids are my favorite sort. Aside from wanton ones. Tell me, where do whores go?
Do I look like a man who frequents whores?
Duck laughed derisively. “He don’t dare. Lemore would make him pray for pardon, the lad would want to come along, and Griff might cut his cock off and stuff it down his throat.” (aDwD, Tyrion III)

While by itself one might argue that Haldon doth protest too much, Duck’s immediate response to the idea of Haldon at a brothel is derisive laughter. Yes, Duck adds that Haldon would get into trouble with Lemore and Jon Connington, but his immediate response reveals Duck considers the idea absurd on its own merit. And Duck knows Haldon long enough to motivate such a response. Moreover, if an affair or visiting a brothel had been the reason why Haldon would have been kicked out of the Citadel, then would the halfmaester laugh at Tyrion’s joked about lusting after women and allow him a visit at a brothel in Selhorys?

The glow of candles glimmered from the windows of the brothel. From inside came the sound of women’s laughter. “The night is still young,” said Tyrion. “Qavo may not have told us everything. And whores hear much and more from the men they service.”
Do you need a woman so badly, Yollo?
“A man grows weary of having no lovers but his fingers.” Selhorys may be where whores go. Tysha might be in there even now, with tears tattooed upon her cheek. “I almost drowned. A man needs a woman after that. Besides, I need to make sure my prick hasn’t turned to stone.”
The Halfmaester laughed. “I will wait for you in the tavern by the gate. Do not be too long about your business.” (aDwD, Tyrion VI)

Moreover, acolytes and novices are shown to frequent a tavern with the prostitute Rose. Pate saves up for a dragon (money) to be able to bed her. Neither Lazy Leo or Pate fear being kicked off the Citadel for sleeping with a woman or girl.

[Lazy Leo] stretched, yawning. “How is our lovely little Rosey, pray?”
“She’s sleeping,” Pate said curtly.
“Naked, I don’t doubt.” Leo grinned. “Do you think she’s truly worth a dragon? One day I suppose I must find out.” (aFfC, Prologue)

And Lady Dustin informs Theon that archmaesters have been known to have fathered bastards, who they then end up adopting into the Citadel. Maester Walys’ father, an archmaester never got expelled for this.

“That was how it was with Lord Rickard Stark. Maester Walys was his grey rat’s name. And isn’t it clever how the maesters go by only one name, even those who had two when they first arrived at the Citadel? That way we cannot know who they truly are or where they come from … but if you are dogged enough, you can still find out. Before he forged his chain, Maester Walys had been known as Walys Flowers. Flowers, Hill, Rivers, Snow … we give such names to baseborn children to mark them for what they are, but they are always quick to shed them. Walys Flowers had a Hightower girl for a mother … and an archmaester of the Citadel for a father, it was rumored. The grey rats are not as chaste as they would have us believe. Oldtown maesters are the worst of all.” (aDwD, The Prince of Winterfell)

Novices, acolytes, maesters and even archmaesters are little different from brothers of the Night’s Watch in this.

“If we beheaded every boy who rode to Mole’s Town in the night, only ghosts would guard the Wall.” (aGoT, Jon IX)

We can thus safely conclude that neither an affair or visiting brothels was the reason why Haldon is only a halfmaester: it is not in Haldon’s character, nor an offence for which the Citadel would expel such an intelligent acolyte for.

Dabbling in magic?

There is nothing that the Citadel dislikes more than maesters practicing magic. Even the archmaester Marwyn, whose subject to teach is magic, is hated by all the other archmaesters and they smear their colleague with acolytes and novices.

Armen pursed his lips in disapproval. “Marwyn is unsound. Archmaester Perestan would be the first to tell you that.”
Archmaester Ryam says so too,” said Roone.
Leo yawned. “The sea is wet, the sun is warm, and the menagerie hates the mastiff.”
[…] When Marwyn had returned to Oldtown, after spending eight years in the east mapping distant lands, searching for lost books, and studying with warlocks and shadowbinders, Vinegar Vaellyn had dubbed him “Marwyn the Mage.” The name was soon all over Oldtown, to Vaellyn’s vast annoyance. “Leave spells and prayers to priests and septons and bend your wits to learning truths a man can trust in,” Archmaester Ryam had once counseled Pate, but Ryam’s ring and rod and mask were yellow gold, and his maester’s chain had no link of Valyrian steel. (aFfC, Prologue)

Marwyn himself claims that the Citadel would have killed maester Aemon if he had survived the voyage and had talked of prophecy and dragons.

Alleras stepped up next to Sam. “Aemon would have gone to her if he had the strength. He wanted us to send a maester to her, to counsel her and protect her and fetch her safely home.”
“Did he?” Archmaester Marwyn shrugged. “Perhaps it’s good that he died before he got to Oldtown. Elsewise the grey sheep might have had to kill him, and that would have made the poor old dears wring their wrinkled hands.”
Kill him?” Sam said, shocked. “Why?
“If I tell you, they may need to kill you too.” Marywn smiled a ghastly smile, the juice of the sourleaf running red between his teeth. “Who do you think killed all the dragons the last time around? Gallant dragonslayers armed with swords?” He spat. “The world the Citadel is building has no place in it for sorcery or prophecy or glass candles, much less for dragons. Ask yourself why Aemon Targaryen was allowed to waste his life upon the Wall, when by rights he should have been raised to archmaester. His blood was why. He could not be trusted. No more than I can.” (aFfC, Samwell V)

And he advises Samwell to pretend to be an obeying novice who will not talk of dragons and prophecy to other archmaesters.

“B-b-but,” Sam sputtered, “the other archmaesters . . . the Seneschal . . . what should I tell them?
“Tell them how wise and good they are. Tell them that Aemon commanded you to put yourself into their hands. Tell them that you have always dreamed that one day you might be allowed to wear the chain and serve the greater good, that service is the highest honor, and obedience the highest virtue. But say nothing of prophecies or dragons, unless you fancy poison in your porridge.” (aFfC, Samwell V)

So, the Citadel would kill maesters and novices over magic, and wish to squash any belief in magic. We know of a maester who lost his chain over dabbling in magic – Qyburn of the Bloody Mummers.

Qyburn pulled a roll of parchment from his sleeve. Though he wore maester’s robes, there was no chain about his neck; it was whispered that he had lost it for dabbling in necromancy. (aCoK, Arya X)

He is not Pycelle, that much is plain. The queen weighed him, wondering. “Why did the Citadel take your chain?
“The archmaesters are all craven at heart. The grey sheep, Marwyn calls them. I was as skilled a healer as Ebrose, but aspired to surpass him. For hundreds of years the men of the Citadel have opened the bodies of the dead, to study the nature of life. I wished to understand the nature of death, so I opened the bodies of the living. For that crime the grey sheep shamed me and forced me into exile . . . but I understand the nature of life and death better than any man in Oldtown.” (aFfC, Cersei II)

The Citadel uses the glass candles to crush any hope or belief in magic within an acolyte before they are allowed to say the vows of a maester. Acolytes have to perform a vigil in a dark room with only a glass candle for light, if they can make it burn. But as far as most maesters and acolytes know, they cannot be lit.

It is a lesson,” Armen said, “the last lesson we must learn before we don our maester’s chains. The glass candle is meant to represent truth and learning, rare and beautiful and fragile things. It is made in the shape of a candle to remind us that a maester must cast light wherever he serves, and it is sharp to remind us that knowledge can be dangerous. Wise men may grow arrogant in their wisdom, but a maester must always remain humble. The glass candle reminds us of that as well. Even after he has said his vow and donned his chain and gone forth to serve, a maester will think back on the darkness of his vigil and remember how nothing that he did could make the candle burn . . . for even with knowledge, some things are not possible.” (aFfC, Prologue)

Armen is correct that the glass candle vigil is a lesson, but only to teach the last he mentions: the lie that magic does not exist. And of course, if there ever is an acolyte who manages to light a glass candle during their vigil, we can surmise such a man would never even be permitted to say his vows, never be allowed to wear a chain. Such a man might not even be allowed to live and tell the tale.

So, is Haldon such a man? Did he dabble in magic and got exiled? Did the halfmaester light a glass candle and was he refused the right to say his vows and don a chain? Or did Haldon have to flee for his life for either one of the offences in the eyes of the Citadel? It seems a plausible explanation, except for the fact that Haldon seems the perfect maester: the halfmaester does not believe in magic. Time and time again, Haldon mocks or displays disbelief to magic. If the halfmaester rejects the existence of magic, it is improbable that Haldon would have been caught dabbling with it.

Take for instance one of the earliest conversations between Haldon and Tyrion as they ride to the Shy Maid, shortly after meeting, accompanied by Ser Rolly Duckfield.

This time Duck laughed, and Haldon said, “What a droll little fellow you are, Yollo. They say that the Shrouded Lord will grant a boon to any man who can make him laugh. Perhaps His Grey Grace will choose you to ornament his stony court.”
Duck glanced at his companion uneasily. “It’s not good to jape of that one, not when we’re so near the Rhoyne. He hears.”
Wisdom from a duck,” said Haldon. “I beg your pardon, Yollo. You need not look so pale, I was only playing with you. The Prince of Sorrows does not bestow his grey kiss lightly.”
His grey kiss. The thought made his flesh crawl. Death had lost its terror for Tyrion Lannister, but greyscale was another matter. The Shrouded Lord is just a legend, he told himself, no more real than the ghost of Lann the Clever that some claim haunts Casterly Rock. Even so, he held his tongue. (aDwD, Tyrion III)

Haldon makes a joke about the Shrouded Lord giving Tyrion the grey kiss. Greyscale is said to have come into the world because of a curse by Garin the Great of the Rhoynar. After he gathered an army against the Valyrians and had several victories, including killing three dragons and dragonriders, the Valyrians moved against him. They captured him.

Locked in a golden cage at the command of the dragonlords, Garin was carried back to the festival city to witness its destruction. At Chroyane, the cage was hung from the walls, so that the prince might witness the enslavement of the women and children whose fathers and brothers had died in his gallant, hopeless war…but the prince, it is said, called down a curse upon the conquerors, entreating Mother Rhoyne to avenge her children. And so, that very night, the Rhoyne flooded out of season and with greater force than was known in living memory. A thick fog full of evil humors fell, and the Valyrian conquerors began to die of greyscale. (tWoIaF – Ancient History: Ten Thousand Ships)

Chroyane_by_didier_graffet
Chroyane, by Didier Graffet

The Shrouded Lord rules the mists around the Sorrows beyond Chroyane, and is by some believed to be a supernatural being or ghost of Garin. His kiss means he curses someone with greyscale. And only those who do not believe in ghosts, the supernatural or magic would joke about this on Planetos. Duck is superstitious enough to reprimand Haldon for making such a joke. And even the otherwise rational Tyrion who tends to classify such legends as tales of grumkins and snarks pales after Haldon’s jape over it. Haldon apologizes for it, but has given us our first hint that he does not take the legends or supernatural beliefs serious. He disdainfully calls Duck’s superstition duck’s wisdom. All this, despite the fact the halfmaester takes greyscale itself very serious. After Tyrion fell into the Sorrows, being pulled down by a stone man, Haldon instructs Tyrion how to inspect for greyscale himself, so that Haldon can avoid touching him:

Haldon produced a small knife from his sleeve. “Here,” he said, tossing it underhand at Tyrion. […] “Take off your boots. Prick each of your toes and fingers.” [… ] “The purpose of the exercise is not to count your toes. I want to see you wince. So long as the pricks hurt, you are safe. It is only when you cannot feel the blade that you will have cause to fear.” […] “As you prick, look for patches of dead grey skin, for nails beginning to turn black,” said Haldon. “If you see such signs, do not hesitate. Better to lose a toe than a foot. Better to lose an arm than spend your days wailing on the Bridge of Dream. Now the other foot, if you please. Then your fingers.”
The dwarf recrossed his stunted legs and began to prick the other set of toes. […] Tyrion drove the dagger’s point into the ball of his thumb, watched the blood bead up, sucked it away. “How long must I continue to torture myself? When will we be certain that I’m clean?”
“Truly?” said the Halfmaester. “Never. You swallowed half the river. You may be going grey even now, turning to stone from inside out, starting with your heart and lungs. If so, pricking your toes and bathing in vinegar will not save you. When you’re done, come have some broth.” The broth was good, though Tyrion noted that the Halfmaester kept the table between them as he ate. (aDwD, Tyrion VI)

When the Shy Maid nears the Bridge of Dreams, surrounded by the fog, we get a conversation where several people express their various views on the curse, ghosts, and the Shrouded Lord. Even if they use the same names, they each talk of different concepts.

The Shy Maid moved through the fog like a blind man groping his way down an unfamiliar hall. […] “I do not like this place,” Haldon Halfmaester muttered. (aDwD, Tyrion V)

Haldon’s dislike could be taken as superstitious without any further information. And Tyrion takes it that way too.

“Frightened of a little fog?” mocked Tyrion, though in truth there was quite a lot of fog. […] The lanterns had been lit fore and aft, but the fog was so thick that all the dwarf could see from amidships was a light floating out ahead of him and another following behind. (aDwD, Tyrion V)

Despite mocking Haldon’s dislike, Tyrion has to admit the fog is dangerously thick. A few paragraphs later the text reveals that the halfmaester wrapped a scarf around his mouth and nose. And Haldon advizes them all not to breathe the fog, calling it Garin’s curse.

We’d do well not to breathe the fog either,” said Haldon. “Garin’s Curse is all about us.”
The only way not to breathe the fog is not to breathe. “Garin’s Curse is only greyscale,” said Tyrion. The curse was oft seen in children, especially in damp, cold climes. The afflicted flesh stiffened, calcified, and cracked, though the dwarf had read that greyscale’s progress could be stayed by limes, mustard poultices, and scalding-hot baths (the maesters said) or by prayer, sacrifice, and fasting (the septons insisted). Then the disease passed, leaving its young victims disfigured but alive. Maesters and septons alike agreed that children marked by greyscale could never be touched by the rarer mortal form of the affliction, nor by its terrible swift cousin, the grey plague. “Damp is said to be the culprit,” he said. “Foul humors in the air. Not curses.” (aDwD, Tyrion V)

Tyrion seems so intent on misunderstanding Haldon that it seems to go completely over his head that what the maesters believe is the culprit is exactly the reason why Haldon is wearing a scarf to cover his mouth and nose, and why he advises not to breathe the fog. When Haldon refers to Garin’s curse, the halfmaester means exactly what Tyrion explains it to be ‘foul humors in the damp air‘. For a long time in our own world, diseases were believed to have spread because of bad or foul airs and gasses even by the first rational scientists. It was not discovered until the start of the 18th century that micro-organisms lived and existed in water. And the paper that described such microscopic observations (without proposing them to be spreaders or carriers of disease, let alone the actual cause) was long ignored after its publication. Hence, Haldon’s fear for the fog and trying to avoid breathing it matches the ideas of a rationalist in a feudal society.

Chroyane_philip straub
Chroyane, by Philip Straub, illustration from The World of Ice and Fire

The only ones expressing beliefs that the fog is supernatural are Ysilla and her husband.

“This is no common fog, Hugor Hill,” Ysilla insisted. “It stinks of sorcery, as you would know if you had a nose to smell it. Many a voyager has been lost here, poleboats and pirates and great river galleys too. They wander forlorn through the mists, searching for a sun they cannot find until madness or hunger claim their lives. There are restless spirits in the air here and tormented souls below the water.”
“There’s one now,” said Tyrion. Off to starboard a hand large enough to crush the boat was reaching up from the murky depths. Only the tops of two fingers broke the river’s surface, but as the Shy Maid eased on past he could see the rest of the hand rippling below the water and a pale face looking up. Though his tone was light, he was uneasy. This was a bad place, rank with despair and death. Ysilla is not wrong. This fog is not natural. Something foul grew in the waters here, and festered in the air. Small wonder the stone men go mad.
“You should not make mock,” warned Ysilla. “The whispering dead hate the warm and quick and ever seek for more damned souls to join them.” (aDwD, Tyrion V)

In response to Ysilla’s supernatural explanations for voyagers naturally losing their way in the fog, claiming there are ghosts in the air and in the water, Tyrion mocks her by pointing at a statue below the waters of the sunken city. And yet, here Tyrion comes to believe the fog is unnatural and at the very least believes something foul is coming from the waters to fester in the air – the foul humors he mentions much later in the conversation.

After Ysilla warns Tyrion not to mock stone men, and claimed that the whispering dead hate the warm and the quick, Haldon proves once more his rational beliefs.

Hatred does not stir the stone men half so much as hunger.” Haldon Halfmaester had wrapped a yellow scarf around his mouth and nose, muffling his voice. “Nothing any sane man would want to eat grows in these fogs. Thrice each year the triarchs of Volantis send a galley upriver with provisions, but the mercy ships are oft late and sometimes bring more mouths than food.(aDwD, Tyrion V)

And when the Shrouded Lord is brought up, Ysilla’s husband Yandry explains that the Shrouded Lord is Garin the Great, resurrected after he rose from his watery grave. Whereas Haldon immediately denies the possibility of the dead rising again or that they could live a thousand years. Instead he explains it as one leader pretending to be the prior one after that one died – not unlike men of the Brotherhood Without Banners pretending to be Beric (and yet Beric was a resurrected man and Lady Stoneheart may roam the Riverlands forever)

The heat from the glowing coals brought a flush to Tyrion’s face. “Is there a Shrouded Lord? Or is he just some tale?
“The Shrouded Lord has ruled these mists since Garin’s day,” said Yandry. “Some say that he himself is Garin, risen from his watery grave.”
The dead do not rise,” insisted Haldon Halfmaester, “and no man lives a thousand years. Yes, there is a Shrouded Lord. There have been a score of them. When one dies another takes his place. This one is a corsair from the Basilisk Islands who believed the Rhoyne would offer richer pickings than the Summer Sea.”
“Aye, I’ve heard that too,” said Duck, “but there’s another tale I like better. The one that says he’s not like t’other stone men, that he started as a statue till a grey woman came out of the fog and kissed him with lips as cold as ice.” (aDwD, Tyrion V)

Even more interestingly is Haldon’s reaction after they first passed beneath the Bridge of Dreams safely, but somehow end up having to pass beneath it again after Tyrion revealed in that accursed place that Young Griff is Rhaegar’s son. Too soon Tyrion believed they had reached safety from the stone men on the Bridge of Dream. The moment it is all out in the open, the Shy Maid passes the underwater stone statue that I already mentioned above, the marble spiraling staircase, an uprooted tree, and finally the Bridge of Dream again. As it happens, Haldon expresses disbelief.

On the larboard side of the boat, a huge stone hand was visible just below the water. Two fingers broke the surface. How many of those are there? Tyrion wondered. A trickle of moisture ran down his spine and made him shudder. The Sorrows drifted by them. Peering through the mists, he glimpsed a broken spire, a headless hero, an ancient tree torn from the ground and upended, its huge roots twisting through the roof and windows of a broken dome. Why does all of this seem so familiar? Straight on, a tilted stairway of pale marble rose up out of the dark water in a graceful spiral, ending abruptly ten feet above their heads. No, thought Tyrion, that is not possible. […] All of them looked. All of them saw it. […] No one said a word. The Shy Maid moved with the current. Her sail had not been raised since she first entered the Sorrows. She had no way to move but with the river. Duck stood squinting, clutching his pole with both hands. After a time even Yandry stopped pushing. Every eye was on the distant light. As they grew closer, it turned into two lights. Then three.
“The Bridge of Dream,” said Tyrion.
Inconceivable,” said Haldon Halfmaester. “We’ve left the bridge behind. Rivers only run one way.” (aDwD, Tyrion V)

Something magical had just happened and showed Garin’s curse has some truth in it. The curse was aimed at Valyrians. And when Tyrion exposed Young Griff as Rhaegar’s son before they were well away from the Sorrows, Aegon was still within grasp of the curse’s magic. At their second approach of the Bridge of Dream, the stone men that dropped themselves onto the Shy Maid aimed for Aegon specifically. And as it was happening , Haldon was the sole one who voices disbelief aloud.

Haldon’s skepticism on magic is not just betrayed with regards the Shrouded Lord or Garin’s Curse, but dragons as well. Jon Connington ordered Tyrion to write down and assemble all he has ever read about dragons while on the Shy Maid. Haldon refers to this as defacing parchment, despite the fact that Jon Connington hopes to have Aegon meet up with Dany and wed her, and they know she has dragons.

When the Halfmaester appeared on deck, yawning, the dwarf was writing down what he recalled concerning the mating habits of dragons, on which subject Barth, Munkun, and Thomax held markedly divergent views. […] “I see you have been defacing more good parchment, Yollo.” Haldon laced up his breeches. (aDwD, Tyrion IV)

So, Haldon is as much a skeptic of magic and dragons as the Citadel would love a maester to be… and as we would expect Varys would prefer. The last person Varys would want near Aegon is a mage. We can therefore conclude in full confidence that Haldon was not expelled or ran from the Citadel for dabbling in magic.

A crime?

A crime may be much harder to ignore for the Citadel. There is one scene that seems to suggest Haldon may have been up to something fishy in aDwD.

It should not have taken this long, Griff told himself as he paced the deck of the Shy Maid. Had they lost Haldon as they had Tyrion Lannister? Could the Volantenes have taken him? I should have sent Duckfield with him. Haldon alone could not be trusted; he had proved that in Selhorys when he let the dwarf escape. […] “Where in the seven hells is Haldon?” Griff complained to Lady Lemore. “How long should it take to buy three horses?
[…]
“Griff,” Yandry called loudly, above the clanging of the mummers’ bell. “It’s Haldon.”
So it was. The Halfmaester looked hot and bedraggled as he made his way along the waterfront to the foot of the pier. Sweat had left dark rings beneath the arms of his light linen robes, and he had the same sour look on his long face as at Selhorys, when he returned to the Shy Maid to confess that the dwarf was gone. He was leading three horses, however, and that was all that mattered. […] Haldon’s horses did not please him. “Were these the best that you could find?” he complained to the Halfmaester.
“They were,” said Haldon, in an irritated tone, “and you had best not ask what they cost us. With Dothraki across the river, half the populace of Volon Therys has decided they would sooner be elsewhere, so horseflesh grows more expensive every day.”
I should have gone myself. After Selhorys, he had found it difficult to put the same trust in Haldon as previously. He let the dwarf beguile him with that glib tongue of his. Let him wander off into a whorehouse alone while he lingered like a mooncalf in the square. The brothel keeper had insisted that the little man had been carried off at swordpoint, but Griff was still not sure he believed that. (aDwD, The Lost Lord)

After losing Tyrion, Jon Connington has begun to distrust Haldon. He becomes suspicious of the length of time that Haldon needs to secure three horses. And on top of that Haldon returns with three disappointing horses and warns Connington not to ask how much they cost.

Haldon shows signs of sweating. But this is not evidence of falsehood. Jon Connington’s POV points out that it is sweltering hot. However, Jon’s memory of Haldon’s explanation about what the halfmaester was doing while Tyrion visited the brothel in Selhorys does not match with what Haldon told Tyrion before leaving Tyrion. To Tyrion, Haldon said he would wait for Tyrion at the tavern at the gate. Apparently the halfmaester told Jon Connington that he was waiting for Tyrion in the square instead. Maybe, Haldon lied not to appear even more naïve for going to a tavern instead of waiting outside the brothel at a square. But it also may be related to a vice – a weakness that requires money and time. While neither Tyrion or Haldon are responsible for Jorah Mormont kidnapping Tyrion, Jorah could not have done so without Tyrion giving into his vices – whores and wine. And Haldon’s own character weakness may have been the reason why he allowed Tyrion out of his sight. Haldon’s vices are neither women like Pate or Tyrion, nor drinking like Tyrion or Aeron Greyjoy. Haldon’s vice may be gambling though.

Tiziano_Baracchi_Trystane_Martell
Trystane Martell, by Tizziano Baracchi

When Tyrion wagered with Haldon over a game of cyvasse for secrets, Haldon could not resist. He ended up revealing the identity of Young Griff to Tyrion, which was a secret guarded for seventeen years from a great many people, after three hours of cyvasse and an undetermined number of losses.

The night that Haldon lost Tyrion to Jorah Mormont, Griff sent Haldon to Selhorys to acquire information with Qavo, a custom’s officer of Selhorys, who tends to share information over a game of cyvasse.

Finally Griff beckoned to Haldon. “We need to know the truth of these rumors. Go ashore and learn what you can. Qavo will know, if you can find him. Try the Riverman and the Painted Turtle. You know his other places.”
“Aye. I’ll take the dwarf as well. Four ears hear more than two. And you know how Qavo is about his cyvasse.”
“As you wish. Be back before the sun comes up. If for any reason you’re delayed, make your way to the Golden Company.” (aDwD, Tyrion VI)

Jon Connington knows that Haldon may potentially take a whole night playing cyvasse with Qavo and also implies that Haldon is familiar with every other place that Qavo frequents in Selhorys. This means that Jon is aware of Haldon’s weakness.

When Tyrion later meets with Qavo, we learn that Haldon has never won from Qavo yet.

“It may be that we can use this trouble to our advantage. I know where we may find answers.” Haldon led them past the headless hero to where a big stone inn fronted on the square. The ridged shell of some immense turtle hung above its door, painted in garish colors. Inside a hundred dim red candles burned like distant stars. The air was fragrant with the smell of roasted meat and spices, and a slave girl with a turtle on one cheek was pouring pale green wine. Haldon paused in the doorway. “There. Those two.” In the alcove two men sat over a carved stone cyvasse table, squinting at their pieces by the light of a red candle. One was gaunt and sallow, with thinning black hair and a blade of a nose. The other was wide of shoulder and round of belly, with corkscrew ringlets tumbling past his collar. Neither deigned to look up from their game until Haldon drew up a chair between them and said, “My dwarf plays better cyvasse than both of you combined.”
[…]
He beckoned Tyrion toward the empty chair. “Up with you, little man. Put your silver on the table, and we will see how well you play the game.”
Which game? Tyrion might have asked. He climbed onto the chair. “I play better with a full belly and a cup of wine to hand.” The thin man turned obligingly and called for the slave girl to fetch them food and drink.
Haldon said, “The noble Qavo Nogarys is the customs officer here in Selhorys. I have never once defeated him at cyvasse.”
Tyrion understood. “Perhaps I will be more fortunate.” He opened his purse and stacked silver coins beside the board, one atop another until finally Qavo smiled.
[…]
The rest was slaughter, though the dwarf held on another dozen moves. “The time has come for bitter tears,” Qavo said at last, scooping up the pile of silver. “Another game?”
“No need,” said Haldon. “My dwarf has had his lesson in humility. I think it is best we get back to our boat.” (aDwD, Tyrion VI)

Haldon admits to having played Qavo often and never having won so far. This may be in part because of purposeful losses. Qavo basically sells information for a bribe, but to onlookers it must appear as if Qavo came by the money over winning a game of cyvasse. It is understood by both Haldon and Tyrion that the price for information is losing a game of cyvasse and the money you put on the table. This is why Qavo reveals any information Tyrion asks after, before Tyrion loses and the money is Qavo’s.

We never see Haldon play against Qavo personally, and Haldon takes Tyrion away after learning enough information. But it seems that Haldon returned to challenge Qavo personally after Tyrion entered the brothel, not for information this time, but to try and win from him. Notice how Tyrion’s excuse for being allowed to visit the brothel is the acquisition of more information.

“The night is still young,” said Tyrion. “Qavo may not have told us everything. And whores hear much and more from the men they service.”
Do you need a woman so badly, Yollo?

Haldon is not fooled by Tyrion’s rationalisation. The halfmaester knows Tyrion’s main reason is to bed a woman. But Haldon also had an itch and hours of leave from Jon Connington to scratch it. It may not be too much of a stretch to assume that the halfmaester likely has another favorite player to challenge in Volon Therys.

So, we could think of a scenario where Haldon gambled himself into debt at Oldtown either having to flee the Citadel without finishing his chain. Alternatively the halfmaester attempted to steal something valuable from the Citadel to try and pay off a debt. There is only one issue with this scenario. Haldon’s “vice” seems to be tied to cyvasse specifically. It is a specific addictive game stemming from Volantis and largely unknown at Westeros.

He had left her in her chambers, bent over a gaming table opposite Prince Trystane, pushing ornate pieces across squares of jade and carnelian and lapis lazuli. Myrcella’s full lips had been slightly parted, her green eyes narrowed with concentration. Cyvasse, the game was called. It had come to the Planky Town on a trading galley from Volantis, and the orphans had spread it up and down the Greenblood. The Dornish court was mad for it. Ser Arys just found it maddening. There were ten different pieces, each with its own attributes and powers, and the board would change from game to game, depending on how the players arrayed their home squares. Prince Trystane had taken to the game at once, and Myrcella had learned it so she could play with him. (aFfC, The Soiled Knight)

From Ser Arys Oakheart we learn the game was introduced in Dorne via a trading galley from Volantis. The orphans spread it. Neither Arys from the Reach and Myrcella knew the game before coming to Dorne. But Ser Arys also informs us that Trystane took to the game at once, implying that Cyvasse only took the Dornish court by storm after the kingsguard and Myrcella had already arrived at Sunspear. Hence, we can date the introduction of cyvasse in Westeros to at the earliest 299 AC. And it only gets introduced at court in King’s Landing in 300 AC, when Margaery attempts to learn it with her cousins.

Margaery was in the Maidenvault, sipping wine and trying to puzzle out some new game from Volantis with her three cousins. (aFfC, Cersei VIII)

Not only is it a new game to several characters of the Reach. Cersei does not know the game either. This means that no maester ever taught it it at the Rock to Tyrion.

Hence, we can conclude that while the game is Haldon’s vice to lure him into a bet over it, the halfmaester certainly never got into debt over cyvasse at Oldtown. It is possible though that Haldon may have had this weakness in other games as well, not unlike Lazy Leo.

“Leo. My lord. I had understood that you were still confined to the Citadel for . . .”
. . . three more days.” Lazy Leo shrugged. “Perestan says the world is forty thousand years old. Mollos says five hundred thousand. What are three days, I ask you?” Though there were a dozen empty tables on the terrace, Leo sat himself at theirs. “Buy me a cup of Arbor gold, Hopfrog, and perhaps I won’t inform my father of your toast. The tiles turned against me at the Checkered Hazard, and I wasted my last stag on supper. (aFfC, Prologue)

Leo Tyrell is broke because he lost at a game with tiles in a tavern called the Checkered Hazard. It may not be cyvasse, but clearly a type of checkers game is played at this tavern for money. Its name including hazard implies it is known as a place to gamble. Notice too that George wrote this in the paragraph after we learned Leo was confined for an unspecified offense. Even if the ordered confinement of Leo Tyrell is not actually related to gambling, George sets up the two concepts close to one another, potentially for a later parallel.

And Prince Doran Martell of Dorne makes an astute observation about himself in relation to cyvasse.

“I told them to place a cyvasse table in your chambers,” her father said when the two of them were alone.
“Who was I supposed to play with?” Why is he talking about a game? Has the gout robbed him of his wits?
“Yourself. Sometimes it is best to study a game before you attempt to play it. How well do you know the game, Arianne?”
“Well enough to play.”
“But not to win. My brother loved the fight for its own sake, but I only play such games as I can win. Cyvasse is not for me.” (aFfC, The Princess in the Tower)

Doran describes himself as someone who would not enjoy cyvasse for the sake of playing itself; that if he plays, he plays to win. In other words, Doran cannot stand losing, and it is this inability to accept loss and let the loss go that can lead to gambling debt. This is something that Haldon seems to suffer from. And such a character trait would rear its head with any potential strategic game.

And thus gambling over cyvasse and checkers seems like a promising trail, but at this point it is highly speculative. We do not have enough information of either the Citadel and Haldon anywhere near confirmation. We do not even know whether a gambling debt would be something so severe the Citadel would expel such a promising acolyte over. And if Haldon stems from a noble family then surely they could have covered some of the debt.

Identity

The potential hints to a gambling issue for Haldon speaks more of a character flaw, a weakness, than it being an identity issue.

The identities of the members of Ragtag Band of Exiles involves a lie, a vice and a hidden identity. With Jon Connington the vice was the lie in order to create a new identity as a cover. It was made out as if he stole from the Golden Company and drank himself to death. In reality, JonCon never stole and never died. And what caused him to be an exile actually makes him out to be a good and honorable man (at least so far). He was unwilling to slaughter smallfolk to capture Robert. Lord Varys recruited the members of Aegon’s team on being skilled as well as caring for people and having morals, despite the vices the elite condemned them for.

With Lemore it is apparent what caused her to be expelled from the order of the Septas: her stretch marks prove she delivered a child once and thus had a lover or affair. And yet, she is perhaps the wisest of the septas we have seen on page, both in her faith and compassion, not unlike Haldon proving to be an exemplary maester who would be greatly desired by the Citadel. The stretch marks cannot be a lie, so that leaves either Lemore being a septa or her name a lie. It is more than likely that her name is the lie.

Haldon_Halfmaester_by_cloudninja9
Haldon Halfmaester, by cloudninja9

The question here is what is Haldon lying about? The vice is gambling, which is unspoken, but shown to us, and therefore not a lie. The halfmaester does not lie about having a chain and evidently has been trained at the Citadel. That leaves a fundamental lie about Haldon’s identity. Some readers speculate that Haldon may benefit of the Citadel’s practice of dropping the last name. But this is a deception practiced by the Citadel anyhow. If an archmaester’s bastard is used to influence House Stark to become more southron, it makes it hard to believe that the Citadel would not have overlooked Haldon’s vice and origin for such a gifted maester who would be a perfect grey sheep as Marwyn would like to say. There seems to be only one specific thing that the Citadel cannot and would not abide by, other than dabbling in magic: gender identity. A maester can no more be a woman, than a septa can be a mother. This is why Doran refers to Sarella’s studies at Oldtown as a game.

What of Sarella? She is a woman grown, almost twenty.”
Unless she returns to Dorne, there’s naught I can do about Sarella save pray that she shows more sense than her sisters. Leave her to her . . . game. […]” (aFfC, The Captain of the Guards)

Most readers figure out even on first read that Alleras in aFfC‘s Prologue is Sarella. I will not quote everything about Alleras in here. For a summary on the theory I refer to the wiki of ice and fire page about it. It is one of the least uncontested hidden identity theories amongst the readers, because it is pretty much on the nose, as much as the singer Abel at Winterfell in aDwD is universally accepted to be Mance, before the Pink Letter confirms it. A very small minority of readers are suspicious of the obvious Alleras = Sarella, because George is rarely that obvious. Many more readers, who accept the Alleras = Sarella theory, suspect that the real sphynx’s riddle are Sarella’s motives; that they go beyond just learning.

Alleras_by drafturgy
Alleras, by drafturgy

Arianne’s thoughts that Sarella was never really a part of Arianne’s close circle because “Sarella was forever pushing in where she didn’t belong” (aFfC, The Princess in the Tower) suggest that Sarella has a trans identity or at the very least is gender fluid, and that from a very young age. Dorne and its court are some of the most emancipated regions of Westeros. The eldest child is heir to the rule of Dorne regardless of gender. All the Sand Snakes are allowed to choose a weapon of their preference by Oberyn. And they are also free to express their femininity however they prefer it to be: nobody forces Obara in a dress, and nobody forces Tyene to wear pants. And they seem as tolerant when it comes to sexual preference. Not only is Oberyn’s bisexuality not a thing that makes him any less loved. But nobody thinks less of Nymeria Sand for her lesbian relation with the Flower twins (see: Tower of the Hand’s Queers of Ice and Fire). So, if Sarella always pushed to be where she “did not belong”, then this implies Sarella was not just content with being a tomboy; that he never accepted the gender assigned to him at birth. Therefore, we should not think of Alleras as a disguise for Sarella, but his truest identity expression, in a world where Alleras cannot physically transition. His motivation is not just acquiring knowledge and learning in an environment where women are forbidden to study, but exactly to be in a male mini-world where everybody automatically identifies you as male and away from Dorne where everybody would misidentify him as a woman.

So, one of the reasons that George makes it so obvious is because as an author he wants to include trans representation, while he can believably write about Alleras as a he. The second reason why George makes it so obvious is because he needed Alleras in order to set up a parallel: Haldon is trans as much as Alleras is.

Right now, you’re thinking, “Wait! What? We have no hint whatsoever that Haldon has a woman’s body!” Well actually there are several glaring ones.

But let us first take Haldon’s physical description.

His companion was older, clean-shaved, with a lined ascetic face. His hair had been pulled back and tied in a knot behind his head. […] The man called Haldon studied Tyrion with cool grey eyes before turning back to Illyrio. […]  (aDwD, Tyrion III)

There are not that many male characters that are clean shaven. And both the ascetic features and knot behind the head are slyly suggestive of a level of femininity about Haldon, that we see but rarely in the series. The maester robes would also allow Haldon to disguise any female physical features.

Meanwhile the conversation during their introduction and first meeting includes jokes about crossdressing and maesters not needing a cock. Haldon introduces himself to Tyrion as healer and how some call him Halfmaester. Rolly Duck is Duck and was knighted by Griff. Then they ask Illyrio to introduce the dwarf to them. Illyrio invents a name on the spot – Yollo.

“Ser Rolly,” said the big man. “Rolly Duckfield. Any knight can make a knight, and Griff made me. And you, dwarf?”
Illyrio spoke up quickly. “Yollo, he is called.”
Yollo? Yollo sounds like something you might name a monkey. Worse, it was a Pentoshi name, and any fool could see that Tyrion was no Pentoshi. “In Pentos I am Yollo,” he said quickly, to make what amends he could, “but my mother named me Hugor Hill.”
“Are you a little king or a little bastard?” asked Haldon.
Tyrion realized he would do well to be careful around Haldon Halfmaester. “Every dwarf is a bastard in his father’s eyes.”
“No doubt. Well, Hugor Hill, answer me this. How did Serwyn of the Mirror Shield slay the dragon Urrax?”(aDwD, Tyrion III)

From the start, Tyrion is aware he should be careful around Haldon if he does not want the truth of his identity known. But we should see this caution also mirrored with Haldon, because Tyrion is as inquisitive, skeptical and observant, especially since George writes Tyrion’s thought about being careful “around” Haldon, after he already introduced us to the main mystery of Haldon and immediately follows up with Haldon mentioning a mirror concept: Serwyn of the Mirror shield.

In the discussion over which dragon Ser Swann killed, Tyrion ends up being careless. First of all, only bastards that have been acknowledged by a noble parent end up with surname. The surname Hill makes him a Westerlander. His need to prove his intellectual prowess reveals instantly that he was highly educated, so much he had access to historical primary sources. By the end of the dragon discussion, Haldon likely already figured out that Hugor Hill was Tyrion Lannister. There are not that many extremely high educated dwarfs in the Westerlands.

The conversation takes a turn, meaning the mirror of discovery is now shining a light on Haldon. It starts with Tyrion inquiring where whores go.

“Shy maids are my favorite sort. Aside from wanton ones. Tell me, where do whores go?
Do I look like a man who frequents whores?”
Duck laughed derisively. “He don’t dare. Lemore would make him pray for pardon, the lad would want to come along, and Griff might cut his cock off and stuff it down his throat.”
“Well,” said Tyrion, “a maester does not need a cock.”
“Haldon’s only half a maester, though.” (aDwD, Tyrion III)

Tyrion is wrong: a maester does need a cock. Without it, he is not allowed to don a chain. And it is in answer to this mistaken claim about not needing cocks that Duck reveals Haldon is only half a maester. So, Haldon being only half a maester is directly linked to ‘not having or needing a cock’. Immediately after this conversation, Haldon declares Duck must be the one who shall have to double ride with Tyrion and creates a physical distance between both of them, and seems quite offended.

“You seem to find the dwarf amusing, Duck,” said Haldon. “He can ride with you.” He wheeled his mount about. It took another few moments for Duck to finish securing Illyrio’s chests to the three pack horses. By that time Haldon had vanished. (aDwD, Tyrion III)

Upon first read we easily come to the conclusion that Haldon may have been offended about Tyrion’s whore question. But as I have already shown, Haldon is perfectly comfortable with Tyrion’s request to visit the brothel and his jokes about having to make sure his prick is not turning into stone. The offence that Haldon took seems to be therefore more directly related to the speculation on Haldon’s cock and him needing one or not, and Duck joking about it as well. If Haldon is trans then Tyrion’s jokes about a maester’s cock and Duck’s response to it hit way too close to Haldon’s unresolvable gender identity. And just like Alleras moved away from Dorne to be his male self, he put physical distance between himself and the people who reminded him so painfully he lack the physical attribute that would make him physically male and would have allowed him to wear a maester’s chain.

A secondary reason for Haldon to decide that Tyrion should ride with Duck would be avoiding the risk of Tyrion discovering his secret. Haldon is being careful by not being around Tyrion altogether. 

But Duck catches up with Haldon and the conversation ensues, this time about the corsairs or pirates on the Rhoyne.

Duck caught up with Haldon Halfmaester a quarter mile on. Thereafter the riders continued side by side. Tyrion clung to the high pommel with his short legs splayed out awkwardly, knowing he could look forward to blisters, cramps, and saddle sores. “I wonder what the pirates of Dagger Lake will make of our dwarf?” Haldon said as they rode on.
“Dwarf stew?” suggested Duck.
“Urho the Unwashed is the worst of them,” Haldon confided. “His stench alone is enough to kill a man.”
Tyrion shrugged. “Fortunately, I have no nose.”
Haldon gave him a thin smile. “If we should encounter the Lady Korra on Hag’s Teeth, you may soon be lacking other parts as well. Korra the Cruel, they call her. Her ship is crewed by beautiful young maids who geld every male they capture.”
“Terrifying. I may well piss my breeches.”
“Best not,” Duck warned darkly.
“As you say. If we encounter this Lady Korra, I will just slip into a skirt and say that I am Cersei, the famous bearded beauty of King’s Landing.” (aDwD, Tyrion III)

Haldon brings up gelding, as if trying to mirror the idea that Tyrion would hate to not have a cock. And Tyrion answers this by claiming he would cross dress by putting on a skirt, pretending to be a bearded queen. Haldon’s reply to this is the harsh jape about the Shrouded Lord granting him a boon. So, once again, Haldon responds offended or offensive the moment Tyrion hits way too close to home.

So, these are quite a lot of references that can be taken as Haldon being trans. “Haha!” you may think. “I have evidence that Haldon has a cock! He pisses from the stern of the Shy Maid!” He seems to, yes. But did he really?

When the Halfmaester appeared on deck, yawning, the dwarf was writing down what he recalled concerning the mating habits of dragons, on which subject Barth, Munkun, and Thomax held markedly divergent views. Haldon stalked to the stern to piss down at the sun where it shimmered on the water, breaking apart with every puff of wind. “We should reach the junction with the Noyne by evening, Yollo,” the Halfmaester called out.
Tyrion glanced up from his writing. “My name is Hugor. Yollo is hiding in my breeches. Shall I let him out to play?
“Best not. You might frighten the turtles.” Haldon’s smile was as sharp as the blade of a dagger. “What did you tell me was the name of that street in Lannisport where you were born, Yollo?” (aDwD, Tyrion IV)

Firstly, Haldon pissing from the stern is connected once more to an identity mystery, and seems a continuation of the sparring with words over it in the prior chapter. Next, Tyrion is not really “looking” in this scene, but writing. He merely glances up, and only after Haldon explicitly calls attention to himself for Tyrion to notice that Haldon is pissing like a man. But when Tyrion threatens to take his cock out, Haldon responds threateningly enough to dissuade Tyrion from doing exactly that.

Remember how Arya started out her journey with Yoren into the Riverlands disguised as a boy. Yoren warned her to pee privately, far away from the other boys’ eyes.

“Lord Eddard gave me pick o’ the dungeons, and I didn’t find no little lordlings down there. This lot, half o’ them would turn you over to the queen quick as spit for a pardon and maybe a few silvers. The other half’d do the same, only they’d rape you first. So you keep to yourself and make your water in the woods, alone. That’ll be the hardest part, the pissing, so don’t drink no more’n you need.” (aCoK, Arya I)

Her habit to stalk off and pee in private convinced Gendry that she was a girl.

“She’s no use,” Gendry repeated stubbornly. “Her and Hot Pie and Lommy, they’re slowing us down, and they’re going to get us killed. You’re the only one of the bunch who’s good for anything. Even if you are a girl.”
Arya froze in her steps. “I’m not a girl!”
Yes you are. Do you think I’m as stupid as they are?”
“No, you’re stupider. The Night’s Watch doesn’t take girls, everyone knows that.
“That’s true. I don’t know why Yoren brought you, but he must have had some reason. You’re still a girl.
“I am not!”
Then pull out your cock and take a piss. Go on.”
“I don’t need to take a piss. If I wanted to I could.”
“Liar. You can’t take out your cock because you don’t have one. I never noticed before when there were thirty of us, but you always go off in the woods to make your water. You don’t see Hot Pie doing that, nor me neither. If you’re not a girl, you must be some eunuch.”
“You’re the eunuch.”
“You know I’m not.” Gendry smiled. “You want me to take out my cock and prove it? I don’t have anything to hide.
Yes you do,” Arya blurted, desperate to escape the subject of the cock she didn’t have.Those gold cloaks were after you at the inn, and you won’t tell us why.” (aCoK, Arya V)

The scene with Haldon seemingly pissing from the stern, getting Tyrion’s attention to see what he is doing, Tyrion threatening to take his cock out and Haldon making it about Tyrion’s identity mirrors much of Arya’s conversation with Gendry about her being a girl or not, albeit a shorter less verbal scene where and the unspoken assumption that the “Citadel doesn’t take girls, everyone knows that.”

Arya caught Gendry’s inquisitive attention when she expressed the belief that the Gold Cloaks were after her. He began to observe, watch and study her and figured it out. If Haldon is trans, watering privately may exactly have been the way how a fellow novice or acolyte discovered he did not have a cock. And since Haldon is aware enough that Tyrion is observant, smart and suspicious, Haldon may have wanted to avoid the same mistake. It would just be enough to pretend to piss like a man, seen from afar to throw off Tyrion, which is why Haldon does not allow Tyrion to come close or take out his own to verify each other’s cocks. In contrast, and by parallel, earlier in the same chapter Ser Duck is taking a piss and Tyrion comes to stand beside him.

The smell of the bacon cooking soon fetched Duck up from the hold. He sniffed over the brazier, received a swack from Ysilla’s spoon, and went back to have his morning piss off the stern.
Tyrion waddled over to join him. “Now here’s a sight to see,” he quipped as they were emptying their bladders, “a dwarf and a duck, making the mighty Rhoyne that much mightier.” (aDwD, Tyrion IV)

“Well, but if Haldon has the anatomy of a woman then he cannot piss standing up!” you might argue. Well, it can be messy, but there are some aids/tools available to help with that. And Tyrion never actually verified whether Haldon actually watered. Haldon could have just be pretending at the stern. The description of the sun on the water and the wind breaking the water with every puff gives a false impression to the reader that Tyrion is witnessing this. But he does not. The imagery is in fact a recollection of his own experience when he pissed off the stern earlier that morning with Duck.

Finally, there is Franklin Flowers’ choice of words when greeting Haldon after their arrival at the Golden Company.

“It’s worse than that, you bugger,” said Franklyn Flowers. “They knighted me as well.” He clasped Griff by the forearm, pulled him into a bone-crushing hug. “You look awful, even for a man’s been dead a dozen years. Blue hair, is it? When Harry said you’d be turning up, I almost shit myself. And Haldon, you icy cunt, good to see you too. Still have that stick up your arse?” (aDwD, JonCon I, The Lost Lord)

Franklyn greets JonCon with bugger, which is vulgar slang for a gay man. Likewise he greets Haldon as cunt. In the UK this slang may refer to both a man and a woman, but it originates as a vulgarity towards women, for it is also slang for vagina. And since Franklyn correctly identifies Jon Connington as gay, we can thus infer he also correctly points out Haldon’s sex.

You might also argue that Haldon may be a eunuch as an alternative. It might explain his response to the mention of needing cocks, the gelding reference, and the seeming ability to piss from the stern. However, we already have a eunuch in the team with Varys. And would either Varys or one of the Unsullied ever jape about gelding? And then there is the ascetic look. We are told that eunuchs tend to plumpness, especially those doing soft service. There is some discussion on how George makes his eunuchs in aSoIaF to be bald, such as Varys and Belwas. In our world the opposite tended to be true, especially for men who were gelded in their youth. (see: androgens and hair loss eugenics, and hair loss and testosterone). But on Planetos eunuchs seems to tend to baldness, and Haldon clearly does not suffer from that. One of the reasons that Haldon may tie his hair in a knot is to keep it from softening his features and betray that his features are not so much ascetic as they may be feminine. Finally, there seems to be no directive against eunuchs donning a maester’s chains. Whereas it would immediately explain why Haldon is but half a maester.

The proposal that Haldon is a trans-male who was born as a woman is as speculative as the character flaw of gambling, but it has quite a lot of textual set up. At least as much as the gambling, if not more. 

Conclusion (tl;tr)

Haldon is the perfect maester insofar the Citadel wishes to have learned men who have no issues with celibacy and reject the existence of magic, even when they witness it firsthand. This only magnifies the mystery on why Haldon was unable to acquire a chain.

We have evidence of only one major character flaw: a penchant for gambling. But so far we can only determine this for cyvasse, a game unkown to Westeros before 299 AC. Nor does this seem enough a transgression to turn away such a talent as Haldon from the order of maesters. It is possible though that George may expand on this in tWoW.

More strikingly though are several references to the necessity of a cock or at least being physically male to acquire a maester’s chain, amidst the identity interplay between Tyrion and Haldon since they first met. Haldon seems to water from the stern of the Shy Maid once. But this scene too is couched in lies about identity, and parallels the scene where Gendry confronts Arya about being a girl. She always went off to water by herself. And it is potentially suspect that during Haldon’s stern moment, Tyrion is engrossed in his writing about dragons as well as warns Tyrion against joining him and taking his yollo out. Finally, in the Lost Lord, Franklyn Flowers refers to JonCon as bugger and Haldon as cunt, both vulgar slang words, but for JonCon it is confirmed to apply. All this is highly suggestive of the notion that Haldon may be trans in a society where he is unable to physically transform, and thus a male identity in a woman’s body, just like Alleras. This would explain perfectly why Haldon never acquired the chain.

I know there are some other identity theories out there. They tend to follow the reasoning of “which character/maester is unaccounted for and might have fled or gone undercover and could be considered a halfmaester“. I found no textual hints for this whatsoever in the interplay between Tyrion and Haldon. If these identities had any potential, then we would have references to this on the Shy Maid chapters, just like Tyrion mentions a lion with wings once, long before the reveal that Griff is Jon Connington.