Strange Sails

(Top illustration – Storm’s End by ryandero)

“If Storm’s End is so impregnable, how do you mean to take it?” asked Malo.
By guile.” (aDwD, The Griffin Reborn)

Capturing Storm’s End

The riddles and potential mysteries of the identities of the Ragtag of Exiles tends to steal the show when it comes to reader discussions about any of their characters (including by yours truly). But there is more to the Ragtag of Exiles than secret identities. While Mace left the siege on Storm’s End to support his daughter Margaery in King’s Landing, Aegon and Jon Connington arrive at Cape Wrath and begin to capture castle after castle. At the end of Jon Connington’s second chapter in aDwD, the Griffin Reborn, Jon Connington reveals that he intends to take Storm’s End with guile.

“We did not cross half the world to wait. Our best chance is to strike hard and fast, before King’s Landing knows who we are. I mean to take Storm’s End. A nigh-impregnable stronghold, and Stannis Baratheon’s last foothold in the south. Once taken, it will give us a secure fastness to which we may retreat at need, and winning it will prove our strength.” (aDwD, The Griffin Reborn)

Both Jon Connington, Mace Tyrell and Arianne admit that one cannot just conquer Storm’s End.

“Here.” Pycelle pointed with a spotted hand. Where the sleeve of his robe rode up, a flap of pale flesh could be seen dangling beneath his forearm. “Here and here. All along the coast, and on the islands. Tarth, the Stepstones, even Estermont. And now we have reports that Connington is moving on Storm’s End.”
“If it is Jon Connington,” said Randyll Tarly.
“Storm’s End.” Lord Mace Tyrell grunted the words. “He cannot take Storm’s End. Not if he were Aegon the Conqueror. And if he does, what of it? Stannis holds it now. Let the castle pass from one pretender to another, why should that trouble us? I shall recapture it after my daughter’s innocence is proved.” (aDwD, Epilogue)

Aegon and Jon Connington “capturing” Storm’s End would be a first ever.

  • Gyles III Gardener besieged the castle for two years and failed.
  • The Andals tried to besiege and attack it seven times during their invasion, but had to give up.
  • Orys Baratheon was only able to take it, because Argilac the Arrogant chose open battle against Aegon’s army commander in the Stormlands, instead of using his foolproof defenses. After Argilac’s defeat, the people inside of Storm’s End delivered Argilac’s daughter to Orys along with the castle.
  • Stannis did manage to force a surrender of Storm’s End in aCoK, but only because he had the castellan Cortnay Penrose assassinated and Cortnay’s second in command was correctly assessed not to be a hardline loyalist to Renly.

Arianne’s descriptions of Storm’s End’s batttlements clarifies why it is impervious to an armed attack.

Storm’s End. This griffin is a bold one, it would seem. Or else a fool. The seat of House Baratheon for three centuries, of the ancient Storm Kings for thousands of years before that, Storm’s End was said by some to be impregnable. Arianne had heard men argue about which was the strongest castle in the realm. Some said Casterly Rock, some the Eyrie of the Arryns, some Winterfell in the frozen north, but Storm’s End was always mentioned too. Legend said it was raised by Brandon the Builder to withstand the fury of a vengeful god. Its curtain walls were the highest and strongest in all the Seven Kingdoms, forty to eighty feet in thickness. Its mighty windowless drum tower stood less than half as tall as the Hightower of Oldtown, but rose straight up in place of being stepped, with walls thrice as thick as those to be found in Oldtown. No siege tower was tall enough to reach Storm’s End battlements; neither mangonel nor trebuchet could hope to breech its massive wallsDoes Connington think to mount a siege? She wondered. How many men can he have? Long before the castle fell, the Lannisters would dispatch an army to break any such siege. That way is hopeless too. (tWoW, Arianne II)

Discussing this particular plan of Jon Connington comes with a huge SPOILER ALERT. Via Arianne’s sample chapters for tWoW, George let the cat out of the bag on whether Jon Connington succeeded or not. So, if you do not wish to know this yet, then this essay is not for you, and you must stop reading now!


At the end of Arianne’s second chapter for tWoW, halfmaester Haldon reveals that Aegon Targaryen and Jon Connington have captured Storm’s End.

“We have rooms prepared for you and yours, princess,” this Halden said, when the introductions finally ran their course. “I trust that they will suit. I know you seek Lord Connington, and he desires words with you as well, most urgently. If it please you, on the morrow there will be a ship to take you to him.
“Where?” demanded Arianne.
“Has no one told you?” Halden Halfmaester favored her with a smile thin and hard as a dagger cut. “Storm’s End is ours. The Hand awaits you there.” (tWoW, Arianne II)

The sample chapters are of course not necessarily the finalized plot. It is possible George may rewrite the plot outcome, or maybe he intends to have us witness the capture of Storm’s End via Connington’s POV. But for now the conclusion is that Jon Connington and Aegon managed to capture Storm’s End, while Mace Tyrell was in King’s Landing for his daughter’s trial. The question is how? We are certain it could only have been done with deception, but which one?

There have been some proposals by readers in the past, which this essay will summarize and evaluate. In doing so, we end up reexamining certain information and potential opportunities as well as anomalies, which help us come to a prediction on alliances that have been set up and in some cases already in action since the Battle of the Blackwater.

Index

Ramsay’s Trick

In aCoK, Ramsay tricks both Theon and Rodrik Cassel into regarding him as their ally coming to the rescue. Ser Rodrik believed Ramsay came to Winterfell with the Dreadfort men to help him retake Winterfell. But Ramsay routed and killed the host that Cassel assembled. Theon knew Ramsay as Reek, a turncloak who promised to help him if he let him go. When he saw Reek return with the Dreadfort men and attack Cassel’s host outside the walls of Winterfell, Theon opened the gates to him, only to be taken captive.

Like Ramsay, Jon Connington has to deceive two parties:

  1. the host led by Lord Rowan who continue the siege of Storm’s End outside the walls of Storm’s End
  2. and the men inside Storm’s End that are loyal to Stannis Baratheon.

Hence, some have proposed that Jon Connington will trick Mathis Rowan into believing he is an ally, allowing the Golden Company to get close enough to take out Mace Tyrell’s token force. This in turn would convince the men inside Storm’s End that Jon Connington came to their aid and rescue, and they open the gates for Jon Connington and the Golden Company.

There are several issues with this proposal or problems that need to be resolved:

  • The mentioned “token force” of Lord Rowan Mathis is underestimated in numbers.
  • Ramsay’s trick relied on both armed men outside and inside Winterfell to assume either he or his forces were allies.

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What is a token force?

Lord Rowan’s “token army” must be understood in relation to the number of forces that Mace Tyrell originally sieged with, before he returned to King’s Landing.

At the Blackwater, the Tyrells had an army of 70000. That host was then split into three.

  • Tarly took a good deal to root out the wolves in Duskendale, bring back order in Maidenpool and secure the kingsroad in the northern Crownlands and eastern Riverlands. That army was large enough to motivate the High Sparrow and the Faith Militant into handing Maergaery back into Randyll’s care (Lord Tarly was the first to arrive back at King’s Landing).
  • After the wedding of Margaery and Tommen, Garlan Tyrell and Olenna Redwyne took half of the remaining army – excluding Randyll Tarly’s – back to the Reach.
  • Mace took the rest with him to besiege Storm’s End. This would be a third of the original 70000 host and roughly means between 20 000 to 30 000.

Given that Mace Tyrell raced back to King’s Landing once he learned of his daughter’s arrest, we can surmise that Mace took cavalry and heavy lance with him to King’s Landing, while he have left behind foot and bowmen.

So, how many of those twenty to thirty thousand would be infantry? After Renly’s assassination and Tarly’s slaughter of Florent liegemen at Bitterbridge (as a “precaution” that they would not follow their Lord into turning their cloak for Stannis), it was estimated that there were at least 58000 foot in total at Bitterbridge, without the 10000 soldiers that Tyrell held back at Highgarden. If we divide that by three, give or take that would mean about 16000 foot at Storm’s End. It would need to be large enough for Mace to believe that Stannis’ 200 inside Storm’s End can remain cut off from the rest of the mainland and food supply, even after Paxter Redwyne left the area and does not police the seaside of Shipbreaker’s Bay anymore and he is in King’s Landing with his horse.

My intent is not to make an exact estimate. George can play around with the numbers, and likely will do so, but basically my point here is that Rowan’s “token” army of foot and bowmen at Storm’s End could be anywhere between 5000 to 10000 men. My point here is that what is a “token” force to Mace Tyrell could be as large as Robb Stark’s whole army he took south of Moat Cailin with him, or as large as the complete Golden Company. So, that would make Jon Connington’s company at best even numbered to Rowan’s. Meanwhile the Battle of Winterfell were 600 Dreadfort men against Rodrik’s 2000.

The numbers of Lord Rowan’s “token” force as well as the confirmed half of the Golden Company that landed at Cape Wrath far better resembles the Battle of Oxcross, where Ser Stafford Lannister trained men for the Lannister host, including about 4000 veterans of Forley Prester.

But even if Jon Connington could, attacking Rowan’s host would risk great number of casualties on Jon Connington’s side, which he cannot afford to lose. His aim is to grow in size, not shrink.

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Who knows who?
Outside Storm’s End

Ser Rodrik Cassel would have distrusted Dreadfort men if he knew Ramsay to be their commander, but Cassel believed Ramsay killed and Reek to be inside Winterfell (either a prisoner, dead or turncloak to Theon). In Rodrik Cassel’s eyes, the men wearing the flayed man of House Bolton were back to being vassals of Winterfell with their lord warring south for Robb, especially since Roose Bolton had helped Robb succeed in taking Riverrun with his “self-sacrificing” Battle of the Green Fork. So, Rodrik and his several thousand men naturally believed the flayed men to be allies. This was the reason why the Dreadfort 600 were allowed to approach and mingle in the first place.

Storm’s End sits on the highest point of the cliff called Darren’s Point. This cliff has been historically deforrested since the Age of Heroes, if not the Dawn Age, or at least since the founding of Storm’s End. There is no physical manner for Jon Connington to approach the castle unseen overland, the way Robb led his 6000 passed the Golden Tooth via a goat trail to then descend on Stafford without warning. Hence, this is why readers argue that Jon Connington will boldly approach and Lord Rowan mistakes him to be an ally.

But in aFfC Aurane Waters and later on Cersei spread the false rumor that the Golden Company broke its contract with Myr in support of Stannis’ claim. So, Mathis Rowan would not consider an approaching Golden Company an ally of his. Instead, readers point to Arianne’s observation about the Golden Company’s banners being easily mistaken for House Baratheon’s.

“Banners?” asked Arianne.
“Gold. On the gatehouse and the keep.”
“What device did they bear?”
“None that I could see, but there was no wind. The banners hung limp from their staffs.” That was vexing. The Golden Company’s banners were cloth-of-gold, devoid of arms and ornamentbut the banners of House Baratheon were also gold, though theirs displayed the crowned stag of Storm’s End. Limp golden banners could be either. (tWoW, Arianne II)

If the golden cloth banners of the Golden Company could be mistaken for the golden banners of House Baratheon, perhaps Jon Connington could use this to trick Lord Rowan? Except, the sole Baratheon who could be an ally of the Tyrells and by extension Rowan Mathis would be King Tommen Baratheon, whose banners are half Lannister red with a lion. Meanwhile, Stannis’ banner has a red flaming heart.

House Baratheon (left), House Baratheon of King’s landing (Center), House Baratheon of Dragonstone (Right)

So, while a limp golden banner of the Golden Company may resemble a limp golden banner of House Baratheon of Storm’s End, the issue is that House Baratheon of Storm’s End is dead and that neither side at Storm’s End, outside or inside its walls follwould recognize that banner as that of an ally.

Connington cannot fake House Rowan or Tyrell approaching either. Tyrell banners include gold, but on a green base. And House Rowan’s golden tree is on a silver background.

House Rowan of Goldengrove (Left) and House Tyrell (Right)

The banners of the castles the Golden Company took on Cape Wrath or House Estermont do not work as false flag either. Why would Lord Rowan of the Reach trust any of the Stormland houses anyway? Many have divided loyalties between Stannis and Cersei’s sons since the Blackwater, and went over to Stannis after Renly’s death.

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Inside Storm’s End

Let us assume that by some miracle somehow Jon Connington manages to attack Rowan’s host and win that battle with a limp golden banner ruse. Would that be enough for Storm’s End castellan to open his gates, the way Theon lowered the drawbridge for Ramsay? Unlike Theon, Ser Gilbert Farring never sent Jon Connington out to fetch reinforcements. Stannis’ castellan of Storm’s End, who commands the skeleton crew of 200, Ser Gilbert Farring does not know any of the sellswords, or Aegon or Jon Connington. Sure, Jon Connington may try to claim that Stannis hired the Golden Company to come to his man’s rescue. But why would Ser Gilbert Farring believe this claim? Because Stannis advized Ser Justin Massay to hire the Golden Company after he signed a contract with the Iron Bank?

“The Iron Bank has opened its coffers to me. You will collect their coin and hire ships and sellswords. A company of good repute, if you can find one. The Golden Company would be my first choice, if they are not already under contract. Seek for them in the Disputed Lands, if need be. But first hire as many swords as you can find in Braavos, and send them to me by way of Eastwatch. Archers as well, we need more bows.” (tWoW, Theon I)

Timeline wise, Jon Connington captured Storm’s End before Tycho Nestoris arrived at the crofter’s village at the ice lakes. Tycho mentions reports in Braavos of other sailors having seen strange sails at the Stepstones.

“Let us hope so. The narrow sea is perilous this time of year, and of late there have been troubling reports of strange ships seen amongst the Stepstones.”
“Salladhor Saan?”
“The Lysene pirate? Some say he has returned to his old haunts, this is so. And Lord Redwyne’s war fleet creeps through the Broken Arm as well. On its way home, no doubt. But these men and their ships are well-known to us. No, these other sails … from farther east, perhaps … one hears queer talk of dragons.” (aDwD, Jon IX)

But let us accept that events at the ice lakes near Winterell may coincide with Jon Connington marching for Storm’s End. Now what tend hostile forces ouside a castle’s wall to do in Westeros? Shoot down ravens. So, neither Stannis or close trusted knight of Stannis could have successfully sent a message by raven from the North to alert the castellan in Storm’s End about the possibility of the Golden Company being hired by Stannis.

That only leaves Cersei’s small council claims in aFfC about the Golden Company breaking its contract with Myr for Stannis Baratheon as an independent source to potentially corroborate Jon Connington shouting at Storm’s End gate that Stannis hired them to relieve them from the siege. Keep in mind that Cersei’s independent claim about this would have been relayed to Ser Gilbert Farring by either Mace Tyrell or Mathis Rowan during some parlay that would have had the taunting quality level  akin to “Your mother …”

So, how likely is that that Ser Gilbert Farring could be conned into believing this? House Farring is a knightly noble house of the Crownlands that has been loyal to Stannis Baratheon at least since burning of the Seven on Dragonstone (aCoK, Davos I). Just as Davos’ son squired for Stannis during the burning of the Seven, so did Gilbert’s son Bryen.

Stannis Baratheon strode forward like a soldier marching into battle. His squires stepped up to attend him. Davos watched as his son Devan pulled a long padded glove over the king’s right hand. The boy wore a cream-colored doublet with a fiery heart sewn on the breast. Bryen Farring was similarly garbed as he tied a stiff leather cape around His Grace’s neck. […] The red woman remained a moment to watch as Devan knelt with Byren Farring and rolled up the burnt and blackened sword in the king’s leather cloak. (aCoK, Davos I)

In other words, Ser Gilbert Farring and his house are as loyal to Stannis as Davos Seaworth is. Not only is Ser Gilbert’s son a squire of Stannis who joined him on his cold march to Winterfell. His cousin is Ser Godry Giantslayer Farring, who is part of Stannis’ close knit war counsil, a King’s Men rather than a Queen’s Men. And though brutish in some ways, at least Ser Godry is not goaded into mistakes much. Gilbert’s son Bryen died at the crofter’s village from starvation and cold, while soldiers of House Peasebury committed cannibalism and were conndemned to burn for it. One of them attempts to goad Godry into killing him by insulting his dead nephew.

The oldest of the four had been their serjeant. He alone remained defiant, spitting venom at the queen’s men as they prodded him along with their spears. “Fuck you all, and fuck your red god too,” he said. “You hear me, Farring? Giantslayer? I laughed when your fucking cousin died, Godry. We should have eaten him too, he smelled so good when they roasted him. I bet the boy was nice and tender. Juicy.” A blow from a spear butt drove the man to his knees but did not silence him. When he rose he spat out a mouthful of blood and broken teeth and went right on. “The cock’s the choicest part, all crisped up on the spit. A fat little sausage.” Even as they wrapped the chains around him, he raved on. “Corliss Penny, come over here. What sort of name is Penny? Is that how much your mother charged? And you, Suggs, you bleeding bastard, you—” Ser Clayton never said a word. One quick slash opened the serjeant’s throat, sending a wash of blood down his chest. (aDwD, The Sacrifice)

It is Clayton Suggs who ends up killing the serjeant, while the Giantslayer can ignore the insults.

All in all, these men’s loyalty, fealty and service to Stannis cannot be doubted, nor are they inexperienced or naive like Theon Greyjoy. Without a bonafide confirmation by someone whom Ser Gilbert knows to have sacrificed and warred alongside Stannis the past two years, I do believe that Gilbert would be fooled into believing Jon Connington and the Golden Company to be on Stannis’ side, even after this hypothetical succesful massacring of Rowan’s host. I do not absolutely reject this idea that those inside Storm’s End may open the gates to Jon Connington. My point here is that we require a missing key figure that Ser Gilbert would know by sight as an ally of Stannis.

Of interesting note here though is that the second in command of Storm’s End is the same one under the previous castellan Cortnay Penrose – Lord Elwood Meadows.

“Ser Cortnay’s lieutenant is cousin to the Fossoways. Lord Meadows, a green boy of twenty. Should some ill chance strike down Penrose, command of Storm’s End would pass to this stripling, and his cousins believe he would accept my terms and yield up the castle.” (aCoK, Davos II)

Indeed, Lord Meadows yielded Storm’s End to Stannis swiftly, after Penrose’s death. He is like to do this again, if Ser Gilbert Farring was to come to an unfortunate calamity.

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House Estermont, The turtle and the leopard

Some readers consider the hostages that Jon Connington acquired as potential key characters for the deception. When Marq Mandrake happened to capture the island and seat of Estermont, Jon Connington decides that the nobles at House Estermont should be taken to the mainland as hostages.

“There should be ships on Estermont. It is an island. Haldon, send word to Mandrake to leave a garrison behind and bring the rest of his men over to Cape Wrath, along with any noble captives.”
“As you command, my lord. House Estermont has blood ties to both kings, as it happens. Good hostages.” (aDwD, The Griffin Reborn)

Could House Estermont impact the 200 men inside Storm’s End and Rowan’s “token” host? Officially, House Estermont has blood ties to both Stannis and Tommen Baratheon – lady Cassana Estermont was Robert’s and Stannis’ mother who drowned along with her husband Steffon at Shipbreaker’s Bay. This makes her the paternal grandmother of Tommen Baratheon in the minds of most. Lord Eldon Estermont is either a brother or uncle to the late Cassana (see Estermont family tree), and thus uncle or great-uncle of Stannis. He bent the knee to Joffrey after being captured at the Blackwater, as did his heir Ser Aemon and grandson Ser Alyn. Both were still in King’s Landing supporting Tommen I in aFfC. So, Lord Mathis Rowan might assume Lord Estermont an ally and believe whatever he claims, not believing the lord would risk the lives of his heir and grandson in King’s Landing.

Interesting enough, Eldon’s brother (or other son), Ser Lomas, is one of the two hundred inside Storm’s End. While Lord Eldon was captured at the Blackwater by the Lannisters and Tyrells, his brother Lomas escaped the battle with Stannis. It is therefore possible, Lomas at least may be persuaded to believe that Eldon and Jon Connington are on Stannis’ side, after tricking Lord Rowan and his token force. It should be noted though, that Lomas is not the castellan or even second-in-command inside Storm’s End.

At the very least, I can see why Jon Connington might end up believing Lord Estermont could be of use to try and trick Lord Rowan as well as Ser Lomas, once Jon Connington has sufficient information on House Estermont’s division. The fact that Arianne has not encounterd any of the Estermont hostages during her tour of the captured seats at Cape Wrath at the very least points to them having been taken to Storm’s End.

If House Estermont may not be as big as a strategical advantage for Aegon and Jon as some readers hope or propose them to be, the taking of Greenstone’s House has symbolic significance: their sigil is that of a green sea turtle on a green field.

Sigil of House Estermont – green sea turtle on green field

The turtle has been featured in Aegon’s arc before: when Tyrion journeys the river Rhoyne aboard the Shy Maid, they witness a giant horned turtle The Old Man of the River surface and bellow at them. To the Rhoynar, this species of turtle were gods or the consort of the river goddess. While the migrated Martells converted from Rhoynish beliefs to that of the Faith, the Dornish orphans who are descendents of the Rhoynar smallfolk did not. So, when this horned turle as big as a boat greets them, Yandry and Ysilla regards it as the god blessing them.

Some [turtles] were so large they could have borne a man upon their backs. Yandry swore the Rhoynar princes used to ride them across the river. He and his wife were Greenblood born, a pair of Dornish orphans come home to Mother Rhoyne. […] I shall, the dwarf was thinking, when he spied a rippling ahead not six yards from the boat. He was about to point it out to Lemore when it came to the surface with a wash of water that rocked the Shy Maid sideways. It was another turtle, a horned turtle of enormous size, its dark green shell mottled with brown and overgrown with water moss and crusty black river molluscs. It raised its head and bellowed, a deep-throated thrumming roar louder than any warhorn that Tyrion had ever heard. “We are blessed,” Ysilla was crying loudly, as tears streamed down her face. “We are blessed, we are blessed.”
Duck was hooting, and Young Griff too. Haldon came out on deck to learn the cause of the commotion … but too late. The giant turtle had vanished below the water once again. “What was the cause of all that noise?” the Halfmaester asked.
“A turtle,” said Tyrion. “A turtle bigger than this boat.
“It was him,” cried Yandry. “The Old Man of the River.” And why not? Tyrion grinned. Gods and wonders always appear, to attend the birth of kings. (aDwD, Tyrion IV)

Old Man of the River by Puppy Show

So, in the above scene, a giant turtle – who is regarded like a god by those of the Greenblood – “blessed” the mission of getting Aegon on the Iron Throne. In that sense, the unplanned taking of Greenstone’s House Estermont with a green turtle for a sigil is a reminder of this lucky blessing. Alternatively or additionally, the blessing of this Rhoynish god foreshadows House Martell supporting and allying themselves with Aegon.

The turtle has a special meaning to George RR Martin’s writing beyond that of aSoIaF. One of George’s first passions were comic book heroes. First he read them, then he published one of his first stories involving a superhero Doctor Weird, in a fanzine (Only Kids are Afraid in the Dark). And then in 1987 the first installment of the Wild Cards superhero stories were published. These stories are written by a collection of 40 authors, in the aftermath of a two year RPG campaign. George has been a primary editor since its inception. One of the superheroes or Aces is George’s creation: the Great and Powerful Turtle. In an alternate post-WWII world, an alien virus that alters DNA was introduced to earth: 90 % of those who contract it die, 9 % end up as Jokers with a disability and 1 % become the superheroic Aces. The Turtle is an Ace, but because he hides it is speculated that he may be a Joker.  Thomas Tudbury hides in plain sight in his everyday life quite easily because he looks like an average guy – plain, pudgy, overweight, glasses and inferiority complex. When he tries to catch the bad guys, he does so by using an old VW Beatle as armor, which he takes into the sky using telekinesis, which is so strong that he once lifted the 45 000 ton battleship New Jersey. The VW Beetle carcass that the Turtle flies acts like his armor. It helps Thomas to concentrate without interuption and use his telekinesis powers optimally. His friend and Thomas also strengthen the Beetle shell with stripped armor plate from battleships.

The first time, Thomas went on a rescue mission with the VW Beetle he got from his friend’s scrapyard, he referenced himself as the Great and Powerful Turtle.

A cop climbed up on top of his police car, holding a bullhorn, and began to hail him. Tom turned off the radio to hear better over the roar of the flames. He was telling Tom to land and identify himself, asking who he was, what he was. That was easy. Tom turned on the microphone. “I’m the turtle,” he said. The VW had no tires; in the wheel wells, Joey had rigged the most humongous speakers they could find, powered by the largest amp on the market. For the first time, the voice of the Turtle was heard in the land, a booming “I’M THE TURTLE,” echoing down the streets and alleys, a rolling thunder crackling with distortion. Except what he said didn’t sound quite right. Tom cranked the volume up even higher, injected a little more bass into his voice. “I AM THE GREAT AND POWERFUL TURTLE,” he announced to them all. (Wild Cards I – Shell Games, George RR Martin)

It is almost as if George lifted this Turtle scene from Shell Games and reworked it into the great horned turtle scene with the Shy Maid for aSoIaF. Note that the noun horn can mean both appendixes on the head as well as a sound magnifier. So, when the crew and people on the Shy Maid hoot at seeing the humongous turtle, his bellowing reply may as well have meant “HI, I AM THE GREAT AND POWERFUL TURTLE”. And with Yandry swearing that Rhoynar princes used to ride these gargantuan turtles, George is basically reshaping Aegon (a Rhoynar prince through his mother Elia Martell) into a hero, or Ace.

However, House Turtle wed a spotted leopard: Arianne’s friend Sylva Santagar was wed by her father to the old Lord Estermont, after Sylva’s involvement in the abduction of Myrcella which ended in Myrcella’s maiming. Sylva is nicknamed Spotted Sylva, because of her freckles in combination with House Santagar’s sigil – a spotted leopard with a golden axe over a bend sinister of blue and white. And of course this is defiitely an allusion to a leopard never changing his spots. When we combine this with the turtle symbolism, it seems to me that George is signaling that  no matter how much you raise someone to be a saintly savior Turtle and leader for the realm, some aspects are nature. Inherently the Iron Throne’s power corrupts, if not the one sitting on it or aspiring to sit on it, at the very least those the monarch surrounds themselves with, councilors, sponsors or wives. And it always starts with the ends justifying the means.

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The Smuggler route

A few have reasoned and proposed that somehow Jon Connington managed to get people inside Storm’s End without confronting Rowan’s host, via the very same route that Davos took to smuggle in onions and Mel when she birthed her shadow assassin. Paxter Redwyne’s fleet is long gone and not patrolling Shipbreaker’s Bay anymore. So, theoretically Storm’s End is open to being resupplied by a smuggler’s galley.

In these proposals the food carrying galley acts as a Trojan horse for the Golden Company. The right captain and ship might persuade Ser Gilbert Farring by sight that they came to the rescue on Stannis’s orders to save the brave and loyal men at Storm’s End from starving. Then once Ser Gilbert either goes onto the ship or allows the crew access into the castle, he ends up captured or killed, and his lieutenant the-ever-yielding Lord Meadows will hand over the castle to the invaders.

I tdo believe that the trojan-food-relief-by-ship is indeed the main key that leads to the “capture” of Storm’s End itself. It bypasses Rowan’s host, via a sea trail (instead of a goat trail), and would allow Aegon and Jon Connington to attack Rowan’s host from two sides:

  • an army in plain sight going up the cliff
  • and a sortie from Storm’s End in Lord Rowan’s rear.

Though even that may not be necessary. Lord Rowan of Goldengrove possibly bends the knee to Aegon the moment he realizes what predicament he is in.

The huge caveat here is that the Golden Company has no ships or captains of their own, nor are they sailors. They have to rely on a Westeros-allied crew. Usually, an Estermont cog is proposed for this mission. But there are several issues with this. Firstly, an Estermont cog is not likely to fit inside the cavern. Secondly, there is vast difference between the Golden Company making a potentially hostile crew sail them from Estermont to the landing place at Cape Wrath at sword point, and trusting this crew to sail them into Storm’s End while hiding in the hull. In the second scenario, the lives of the men of the Golden Company are entirely in the hands of potential enemies, as Tyrion thinks to himself once he learns that Jon Connington is sailing for Westeros without Dany.

It had to be a stratagem, designed to lull Volantene suspicions. Get the men aboard with this false pretext and seize the ships when the fleet is out to sea. Is that Griff’s plan? It might work. The Golden Company was ten thousand strong, seasoned and disciplined. None of them seamen, though. Griff will need to keep a sword at every throat, and should they come on Slaver’s Bay and need to fight … (aDwD, Tyrion VII)

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A likely profile

We cannot assume that just every captain knows the cavernous access into Storm’s End, let alone how to navigate it with a ship. So, this proposal can only work if the Golden Company forges an alliance with a fleet or captain that

  • the Golden Company can or will trust for 99 % with their lives,
  • the 200 men holding Storm’s End for Stannis would trust,
  • knows how to navigate the smuggler’s cavern.
Salladhor Saan, by Diego Gisbert Llorens

One of the likeliest candidates to fit that profile would be Salladhor Saan. This smuggler and former good friend of Davos would know how to safely navigate a ship into Storm’s End. Imagine Ser Gilbert Farring peeping down the murder hole to check the identity of the men who were so bold to sail into the smuggler’s cavern. He sees Salladhor on the ship and the Lyseni pirate then loudly claims that Davos and Stannis sent him to gift them food and keep them from starving, then Ser Gilbert has no knowledge to distrust Salladhor. He does not know that Salladhor abandoned Stannis, does not know the pirate dropped Davos into dangerous waters to make it to the shore of the Sisters by himself, instead of White Harbor. In fact, Davos himself lied to Lord Godric Borrell about Salla’s loyalties.

When Davos did not answer, [Lord Borrell] rapped his spoon against the table. “The Lyseni. Torrent spied their sails from Littlesister, and before him the Flints from Widow’s Watch. Orange sails, and green, and pink. Salladhor Saan. Where is he?”
“At sea.” Salla would be sailing around the Fingers and down the narrow sea. He was returning to the Stepstones with what few ships remained him. Perhaps he would acquire a few more along the way, if he came upon some likely merchantmen. A little piracy to help the leagues go by. “His Grace has sent him south, to trouble the Lannisters and their friends.” The lie was one he had rehearsed as he rowed toward Sisterton through the rain. Soon or late the world would learn that Salladhor Saan had abandoned Stannis Baratheon, leaving him without a fleet, but they would not hear it from the lips of Davos Seaworth. (aDwD, Davos I)

An alliance with a Westerosi or Salla’s remaining fleet can solve a lot of issues for the Golden Company overall. At the time of Jon Connington’s taking of Griffin Roost, the landing seemed to have become a logistical nightmare. The fleet from Volantis dropped the Golden Company and their elephants off wherever they could in the Narrow Sea:

The Halfmaester had good tidings. “Word’s reached the camp from Marq Mandrake. The Volantenes put him ashore on what turned out to be Estermont, with close to five hundred men. He’s taken Greenstone.”
Estermont was an island off Cape Wrath, never one of their objectives. “The damned Volantenes are so eager to be rid of us they are dumping us ashore on any bit of land they see,” said Franklyn Flowers. “I’ll wager you that we’ve got lads scattered all over half the bloody Stepstones too.”
With my elephants,” Harry Strickland said, in a mournful tone. (aDwD, The Griffin Reborn)

Dropping sites and castles taken by the Golden Company

The Stepstones was indeed the pirate haunt that Salladhor Saan was gunning for when he last said his goodbyes to Davos. If you wonder about the timeline, Davos I of aDwD occurs well before the end of aFfC’s timeline. As Cat of the Canals, Arya learns of Saan returning to his pirate ways at the Stepstones.

A mate on the green galley wolfed half a dozen oysters and told her how his captain had been killed by the Lysene pirates who had tried to board them near the Stepstones. “That bastard Saan it was, with Old Mother’s Son and his big Valyrian. We got away, but just.” (aFfC, Cat of the Canals)

Salla went pirate with his remaining fleet at the Stepstones shortly before the Volantenese fleet dropped sections of the Golden Company off at this location. Most arguments and literary hints in the novels that foreshadow that Salla operates in support of the Golden Company will be covered in an essay specifically on him. For now, the profile and geographical match around the right time suffice to propose him as a realistic candidate with the opportunity and some means to help the Golden Company.

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Arguments for a Fleet

While potential allies for the Golden Company are regularly discussed – Dorne, the friends in the Reach – this rarely includes naval allies. But it is the most handy ally when your army and elephants are spread across the southern shores of the Narrow Sea and are in dire need to be unified quickly. If the Golden Company picked up such an alliance shortly after the initial landings on the southern shores of the Narrow Sea, then we should see hints to this.

The first hint is the claim the Golden Company took Tarth.

“Here.” Pycelle pointed with a spotted hand. […] “Here and here. All along the coast, and on the islands. Tarth, the Stepstones, even Estermont. And now we have reports that Connington is moving on Storm’s End.” (aDwD, Epilogue)

Tarth has fallen too, some fisherfolk will tell you,” said Valena. “These sellswords now hold most of Cape Wrath and half the Stepstones. We hear talk of elephants in the rainwood.” (tWoW, Arianne I excerpt)

We are inclined to believe that the Volantenese ships dropped some of the Golden Company off on Tarth as haphazzardly as they did for Greenstone. Valena Toland’s referencing “strange sails” deepens this impression as it is a phrase we are bound to associate with the Volantenese fleet.

Valene to Arianne: “Since the Redwyne fleet passed through the Stepstones, those waters are crawling with strange sails, all the way north to the Straights of Tarth and Shipbreaker’s Bay.” (tWoW, Arianne I excerpt)

When we look at the map, however, there is a significant difference. Greenstone and the Stepstones lie en route to the beaches of Cape Wrath, Jon Connington’s intended destination. But Tarth and Shipbreaker’s Bay lie further north, well beyond Jon’s destination. If the Volantenese fleet delivered the Golden Company on such shores, they were seriously off course!

The fall storms of the Narrow Sea were one of the reasons that the Volantenese put the Golden Company ashore wherever they could as fast as possible. Now, Shipbreaker’s Bay is famous for its storms during any season, let alone fall or winter. Stannis’ father and mother perished with their ship in that Bay within view of Storm’s End. The legends of the first Durrandon building Storm’s End revolves around the stormy nature of that bay. This would be waters that the Volantenese would avoid. Of course, there is a chance that a storm sent some Volantenese ships off course. But it seems more likely that the “strange sails” in Shipbreaker’s Bay and around the waters of Tarth belong to a new seafaring ally, with far better knowledge, interests and ties into Shipbreaker’s Bay.

Aurane Waters, by Nachio Molina

Indeed, Valena includes “Myrmen, Volantenese, Lyseni and reavers of the Iron Islands” under the banner of “strange sails” (tWoW, Arianne I excerpt). She also mentions a new pirate king, believed by many readers to be Aurane Waters with Cersei’s stolen fleet of dromonds.

Valena to Arianne: “A new pirate king has set up on Torturer’s Deep. The Lord of the Waters, he styles himself. This one has real warships, three-deckers, monstrous large.”  (tWoW, Arianne I excerpt)

George seems to deliberately muddy the waters here with confusing reports, as he already hinted through Jon Connington that he would do so to “bring allies to the cause”.

Jon Connington: “Let the Lannisters suspect Stannis Baratheon, pirates from the Stepstones, outlaws out of the woods, or whoever else they cared to blame. If the reports that reached King’s Landing were confused and contradictory, so much the better. The slower the Iron Throne was to react, the longer they would have to gather their strength and bring allies to the cause.” (aDwD, The Griffin Reborn)

So, Pycelle’s reports and Valena’s claims represent an altered geographical situation than the one during the Griffin Reborn, and it lends support to the idea of the Golden Company having an as of yet undisclosed but new naval ally, which thematically fits the Turtle symbolism of making his mode of transportation a shell of a VW Beetle with plate armor from various salvaged battleships.

Another strong indication for such an ally would be the speed at which the Golden Company and elephants are fully operational and conquer different sites with great distances between them, such as Tarth and indeed the taking of Storm’s End.

“We have rooms prepared for you and yours, princess,” this Halden said, when the introductions finally ran their course. “I trust that they will suit. I know you seek Lord Connington, and he desires words with you as well, most urgently. If it please you, on the morrow there will be a ship to take you to him.”
“Where?” demanded Arianne.
“Has no one told you?” Halden Halfmaester favored her with a smile thin and hard as a dagger cut. “Storm’s End is ours. The Hand awaits you there.” (tWoW, Arianne II, excerpt)

Arianne I and Arianne II were originally chapters written to be included in aDwD, just like Arya’s Mercy or Sansa’s Alayne in the Vale and so on. They were pulled, because the book was too large. If these and other chapters had been included, we would have ended the Meereen arc with what seemed a sure victory for Selmy, Tyrion and Victarion against the slavers, but also the news that Jon Connington had captured Storm’s End, instead of still marching for it. This means that after landing on the Stepstones, Greenstone and Cape Wrath, the Golden Company managed to conquer all of Cape Wrath and quickly widened the territory to include Storm’s End, Tarth and Shipbreaker’s Bay, within aDwD’s timeline. More, Aegon’s confidence in wanting to meet an oncoming army in the field outside of Storm’s End also points to him having the complete Golden Company at his disposal. This is only possible with swift ships that were sailing the Narrow Sea and captains without loyalty to either Cersei or Stannis that came to the Company’s aid after the Volantenese dropped them off.

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The Valyrian

While this mention of a ship to transport Arianne to Storm’s End seems not that important, in comparison to the news of Storm’s End having been taken, I am very curious to learn which captain will welcome Arianne aboard his ship in Arianne III – Aurane Waters on a renamed Lord Tywin or Sweet Cersei or Salladhor Saan on his great galleas Valyrian? Either one of these two will clarify a great many things almost instantly to the reader without George having to go into much detail. Certainly each of them fit in Arianne’s tendency to meet a string of Valyrian looking men:

Darkstar. (I was unable to track the author)
  1. Ser Gerold Darkstar Dayne in aFfC, The Queenmaker, with hair as a silver glacier (and a black streak), dark angry purple eyes. In Arianne’s mind he is the most handsome man of all Dorne and the cruelest moustache twirling rogue. Arianne believes that if she married him, their children would be as beautiful as dragonlords. It is covertly hinted in the same paragraph and the next that Arianne may have had an affair or encounter with Gerold in the past, and that she was infatuated with him once, having a preference for handsome bad men. The aWoIaF app also claims there were lovers once or twice. While Daynes are not known dragonlords, they do features physical traits that appear Valyrian and George has referred to Daynes as comparable to proto-Valyrian. In other words, these physical features of purple eyes and/or silver hair predate Valyaria and are part of their phenotype even as First Men.
  2. Lysono Maar in tWoW, Arianne II excerpt. The spymaster of the Golden Company is from Lys where the Valyrian looks are the most prevalent, even amongst commoners, and so, Lysono has white-gold hair and lilac eyes. Another striking feature is people’s perception of Lysono’s gender identity and how they express or play with it, including painting their nails purple and wear noticeable jewelry from their ears. When Arianne meets Lysono outsde of Griffin’s Roost, she starts to say, “You look …”. Lysono finishes her sentence with “… like a woman?”. But Arianne corrects Lysono: “… like a Targaryen.” It is important to remember that Arianne’s cousin, the Sand Snake Sarella, studies in the guise of a young man at the Citadel in Oldtown, going by the name Alleras. In the essay on Haldon the Halfmaester, I argue that Alleras is most likely trans. Arianne may not fully understand it, but she is aware of it and seems to respects this as being an integral part of them. Given that Arianne is on her way to meet Jon Connington and Aegon Targaryen, recently learned she was supposed to marry Viserys Targaryen and was attracted to Ser Gerold Dayne with his proto-Valiryan looks, Arianne’s interest may indeed have genuinely been sparked more by Lysono’s Valyarian features than their gender fluid appearance. She wonders whether Viserys looked like Lysono, and indeed these two are the sole characters in the main* series described as having pale lilac eyes. Even when Arianne finds that something about Lysono makes her skin crawl, this is linked to Viserys Targaryen: that perhaps it is for the better that Viserys is dead then. And I am quite certain that most readers are glad he is dead.
Lysono Maar, by wyattabernathyus

* In Fire and Blood, the black bride Rhaena Targaryen and the father of Rhaenys the Queen who Never was, Aemon Targaryen are also described as having eyes pale as lilac.

So, in that sense, we should almost expect the captain who sails Arianne to Aegon to have Valyrian features or references in Arianne’s third chapter, before she meet Jon Connington and the Spider’s Aegon Targaryen.

  • Salladhor Saan is also a Lyseni. His fair hair has gone completely white. There is no explicit mention of the colour of his eyes being in the purple range, but at the very least his galleas is Valyarian.
  • The alternative escort would be Aurane Waters on one of the dromonds. His eyes are grey-green rather than purple, but he does have the silver-gold hair (though more silvery than gold) and reminds Cersei of Rhaegar, the supposed father of Aegon Targaryen and husband of Arianne’s aunt, Elia Martell.
Jon Connngton and Aegon Targaryen, by wyattabernathyus

Overall, we should expect plenty of Valyrian looking characters to flock to Aegon’s side, since he is set up as the poster boy Targaryen prince, who at the very least must look the part.

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Proposal – Amalgam of Battleships

So, to conclude, I propose that Aegon’s Golden Company acquired a fleet comprised of various prior factions, with each serving different purposes and varying degrees of loyalty:

  • merchant cogs of Greenstone
  • Aurane Waters and the dromonds he had Cersei fund to build and then stole from her
  • Salladhor Saan’s last remaining galleas(es), with each serving a different purpose and having varying degrees of loyalty.

The order in which they became an ally may be surprising and for some goes a long way back. I believe for example that Aurane Waters was recruited by Varys shortly after his capture at the Blackwater; that Aurane proposed the dromond fleet to the small council with the intent to sail with them to welcome Aegon’s (and Dany’s) arrival at the Stepstones with it. He used the dromonds to gain control over the Stepstones from the pirates, including Salladhor Saan with the remainder of his swift fleet. His dromonds are made to transport large numbers of soldiers and even elephants, which the Volantenese fleet dropped off on the Stepstones.

Meanwhile, once outnumbered by Aurane’s dromonds, Salla agreed to sell his sails to the coming Golden Company in return for gold. He was the captain who uses Davos’ smuggle route into Storm’s End to trick Ser Gilbert into giving the Golden Company access into the formidable castle unwittingly. The cogs of Greenstone were commandeered and at some point manned with pirates from the Stepstones, who are under Aurane’s command, since he is the Lord of the Waters. These may have been used to approach Tarth and small coastal keeps without raising suspicion or alarm. But the true military strength and agility come from Aurane’s dromonds and Salla’s galleas.

This amalgam of battleships of various fleets from former and or rivaling claimants fits with the various allusions to George’s hero of the Turle of Wild Cards, and it continues Aegon’s story and perhaps even origin: he grew up on boat and traversed rivers all of his young life. We meet him for the first time as Young Griff, on a boat, the Shy Maid. Upon revealing himself to the Golden Company, the direction in which the Volantenese fleet sails determines Aegon’s next course: to Westeros instead of Slaver’s Bay. And so, it seems inevitable that his conquering of the Stormlands and potentially King’s Landing with the Iron Throne would involve a proper fleet. If Aegon is a pisswater prince of King’s Landing or a descendant of a bastard line of the Targaryens, then he basically is an Aegon Waters.

Of course I would never ask you to believe my claim without providing some literary evidence, especially with regards to Aurane and Salla. These I will provide in an essay for each separately.

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Mirror Mirror – Behind the Mirror

(Top Illustration: Maester Caleotte revealing Gregor’s skull, by Joshua Cairos)

The Watcher

A quite interesting chapter that actually involves mirroring armor is that of Areo Hotah’s The Watcher in aDwD.

Areo Hotah had polished his shirt of copper scales mirror-bright so he would blaze in the candlelight as well. (aDwD, The Watcher)

Areo Hotah
Areo Hotah, by Henning Ludvigsen, Copyrighted to Fantasy Flight Games

Hotah is the sole character with his own POV in the books who wears mirror armor. The chapter’s name The Watcher is a reference that Will uses in relation to the five Others surrounding Waymar Royce who do not interfere with the duel, until he bleeds.

Behind him, to right, to left, all around him, the watchers stood patient, faceless, silent, the shifting patterns of their delicate armor making them all but invisible in the wood. […] The watchers moved forward together, as if some signal had been given. (aGoT, Prologue)

So, what we can learn from Hotah’s abilities as a watcher might give us important clues to the Others’ abilities who also wear mirror armor and watch.

The Watcher is the chapter where Kingsguard Balon Swann presents the skull of Gregor Clegane to Prince Doran Martell, Oberyn’s mistress Elaria Sand makes a speech against further “revenge”, Doran manages to make the Sand Snakes swear loyalty to him, and each of the missions of the three eldest Sand Snakes is laid out. Many a reader wondered why George could not just have written this from an Arianne POV. After all, she is present almost the entire time, and Areo Hotah’s private mind is not the most entertaining. We propose it has to do with using a reliable narrator, instead of an unreliable narrator. George relies heavily on the latter technique in his POVs. Most often we need to read between the lines to decide which is fact, which may be an act, and what may be the meaning, or reread a chapter to figure out what actually happened for the POV lacks objectivity. For example, even in an observant POV such as Arya’s, the Weasel soup chapter of aCoK may read as confusing, because just like Arya we are not in the know yet that Vargo Hoat made a deal with Roose Bolton to switch sides at the time. George’s use of the unreliable narrator is such an accepted fact by the reader by the time aDwD rolls around, we are ready to question every claim, every emotional scene and every opinion. But as a bodyguard with intimate knowledge of the household, with decades of experience in a region where people conspire and plot, weary of any person who may mean harm to Prince Doran (including the Sand Snakes), Areo Hotah is a living, breathing lie detector.

Areo Hotah ran his hand along the smooth shaft of his longaxe, his ash-and-iron wife, all the while watching. He watched the white knight, Ser Balon Swann, and the others who had come with him. He watched the Sand Snakes, each at a different table. He watched the lords and ladies, the serving men, the old blind seneschal, and the young maester Myles, with his silky beard and servile smile. Standing half in light and half in shadow, he saw all of them. Serve. Protect. Obey. That was his task. (aDwD, The Watcher)

Objective reliable narration  is the reason why George chose to write this chapter from Areo’s POV, not Arianne’s. If he had used Arianne’s POV and wanted to convince the reader that all the information George condences and reveals in that chapter is the truth, he would have had to include multiple chapters to prove it, since Arianne’s chapters in aFfC already showed her to make quite some mistakes in character assessment, in who to trust, and to even figure out after the fact that nobody actively betrayed her, but it was most likely Garin who bragged and blabbed a bit too much to his cousins about his mission. After all Garin would have been the man to enlist Orphans with a boat to meet them at an unnamed location at the river, hidden behind a willow. (see Arianne’s Snitch for more discussion on Westeros.org)

So, let us examine the reveals of the Watcher chapter and the evidence that would confirm the veracity of these reveals to help you see why George needed a lie-truth detector POV here.

The Mountain’s Skull

The first issue is the skull that Balon Swann gifts. Is it truly Gregor’s skull or another? Even the Sand Snakes question amongt themselves whether it is Gregor’s skull or not.

Obara Sand plucked the skull from [Maester Caleotte] and held it at arm’s length. “What did the Mountain look like? How do we know that this is him? They could have dipped the head in tar. Why strip it to the bone?
“Tar would have ruined the box,” suggested Lady Nym, as Maester Caleotte scurried off. “No one saw the Mountain die, and no one saw his head removed. That troubles me, I confess, but what could the bitch queen hope to accomplish by deceiving us? If Gregor Clegane is alive, soon or late the truth will out. The man was eight feet tall, there is not another like him in all of Westeros. If any such appears again, Cersei Lannister will be exposed as a liar before all the Seven Kingdoms. She would be an utter fool to risk that. What could she hope to gain?”
The skull is large enough, no doubt,” said the prince. “And we know that Oberyn wounded Gregor grievously. Every report we have had since claims that Clegane died slowly, in great pain.”
“Just as Father intended,” said Tyene. “Sisters, truly, I know the poison Father used. If his spear so much as broke the Mountain’s skin, Clegane is dead, I do not care how big he was. Doubt your little sister if you like, but never doubt our sire.” (aDwD, The Watcher)

The skull that Hotah sees certainly fits Gregor’s size.

He allowed himself a brief glance at the chest. The skull rested on a bed of black felt, grinning. All skulls grinned, but this one seemed happier than most. And bigger. The captain of guards had never seen a larger skull. Its brow shelf was thick and heavy, its jaw massive. (aDwD, the Watcher)

Qyburn made clear to Cersei that he could not save Gregor from dying from Oberyn’s poison, but he perhaps could use Gregor in some dark arts way to continue to serve Cersei.

“He is dying of the venom, but slowly, and in exquisite agony. My efforts to ease his pain have proved as fruitless as Pycelle’s. […] Be that as it may, his veins have turned black from head to heel, his water is clouded with pus, and the venom has eaten a hole in his side as large as my fist. It is a wonder that the man is still alive, if truth be told.” (aFfC, Cersei II)

Even then, when Cersei consents to this, she still demands his head to be gifted to Dorne as her father had promised.

“Very well. The Mountain is yours. Do what you will with him, but confine your studies to the black cells. When he dies, bring me his head. My father promised it to Dorne. Prince Doran would no doubt prefer to kill Gregor himself, but we all must suffer disappointments in this life.” (aFfC, Cersei II)

Qyburn mentions it took beetles hours to clean the large skull from flesh. The conversation between Cersei and Qyburn does not confirm a deception on their part, and Cersei thinks of the Mountain’s screams in the next paragraph. It is not impossible for the duo to have used someone else’s skull in theory, but there is no solid evidence for it. And in fact, a resurrected ice wight for example does not require a skull to keep functioning. Gregor’s skull could have been gifted to Doran, and the rest of his body could still function as Robert Strong.

My champion will need a new name as well as a new face. (aDwD, Cersei I)

Eight feet tall or maybe taller, with legs as thick around as trees, he had a chest worthy of a plow horse and shoulders that would not disgrace an ox. His armor was plate steel, enameled white and bright as a maiden’s hopes, and worn over gilded mail. A greathelm hid his face. (aDwD, Cersei II)

And indeed Bran’s vision of three knights looming over Arya and Sansa in aGoT indicates a headless Gregor.

He saw Sansa crying herself to sleep at night, and he saw Arya watching in silence and holding her secrets hard in her heart. There were shadows all around them. One shadow was dark as ash, with the terrible face of a hound. Another was armored like the sun, golden and beautiful. Over them both loomed a giant in armor made of stone, but when he opened his visor, there was nothing inside but darkness and thick black blood. (aGoT, Bran III)

The first shadow contains symbolic references to Sandor Clegane (ash, a terrible face of a “hound”), the second to Jaime Lannister (golden armor, beautiful, sun-gold) and the third to Gregor Clegane (a giant, armor of stone for someone nicknamed the Mountain, black thickened blood).

So, the skull gifted to Doran is indeed Gregor Clegane’s. Note that if the Sand Snakes may suspect deception, Areo Hotah does not seem to.

Cersei’s Plan

In aFfC Cersei alludes in thought of a special task she intends to give Balon Swann during the small council.

A tiresome creature, this prince. “His long wait is almost done. I am sending Balon Swann to Sunspear, to deliver him the head of Gregor Clegane.” Ser Balon would have another task as well, but that part was best left unsaid. (aFfC, Cersei IV)

Cersei’s POV never betrays this task to the reader. Instead we, the Sand Snakes and Areo Hotah learn of it directly from Prince Doran, during a private meeting in his solar, after the dinner with Balon Swann.

Prince Doran took a jagged breath. “Dorne still has friends at court. Friends who tell us things we were not meant to know. This invitation Cersei sent us is a ruse. Trystane is never meant to reach King’s Landing. On the road back, somewhere in the kingswood, Ser Balon’s party will be attacked by outlaws, and my son will die. I am asked to court only so that I may witness this attack with my own eyes and thereby absolve the queen of any blame. Oh, and these outlaws? They will be shouting, ‘Halfman, Halfman,’ as they attack. Ser Balon may even catch a quick glimpse of the Imp, though no one else will.” (aDwD, The Watcher)

So, Cersei wants the Stone Crows of the Vale who remained in the Kingswood after the Battle of the Blackwater to kill Trystane, thereby liberating Princess Myrcella of her betrothal that Tyrion once arranged, and Balon will blame Tyrion for the attack. Important for this essay here is how Areo Hotah already picked up signs about Balon Swann that he was nervous about something during the feast earlier.

Ser Balon gave a nod and sipped his wine. This one is not so easily seduced [by Arianne] as was his Sworn Brother, Hotah thought. Ser Arys was a boy, despite his years. This one is a man, and wary. The captain had only to look at him to see that the white knight was ill at ease. This place is strange to him, and little to his liking. […] And now that they had reached Sunspear, neither Princess Myrcella nor Ser Arys Oakheart was on hand to greet them. The white knight knows that something is amiss, Hotah could tell, but it is more than that. Perhaps the presence of the Sand Snakes unnerved him. (aDwD, The Watcher)

Notice how George stresses often that Areo notices this about Balon just by ‘looking’ at him. Hotah does not know the reason for it yet though. And he lists several rational explanations for it: the strangeness of Dorne, not liking Dorne, anxious about Myrcella and Arys not being at the feast. And yet Hotah can see that Balon’s discomfort goes beyond that. Having run out of explanations, Hotah temporarily settles on the knight being nervous about the presence of the Sand Snakes. It is around this time that Prince Doran mentions Cersei’s letter where the request Myrcella’s return to King’s Landing and invites Prince Doran to sit on the small council.

Midnight was close at hand when Prince Doran turned to the white knight and said, “Ser Balon, I have read the letter that you brought me from our gracious queen. Might I assume that you are familiar with its contents, ser?” Hotah saw the knight tense.(aDwD, The Watcher)

And as the knight extends the invitation to include Trystane, saying how King’s Landing would welcome him, Hotah notices that Balon has started to sweat.

Why is he sweating now? the captain wondered, watching. The hall is cool enough, and he never touched the stew. (aDwD, The Watcher)

In fact, far earlier during the feast, Hotah had noticed that Balon had eaten very little of the fiery food. He did eat one small spoon of the stew and broke out in sweat because of it then, but only the spoonful and not any more since.

[Ser Balon] ate little, Hotah observed: a spoon of soup, a bite of the pepper, the leg off a capon, some fish. He shunned the lamprey pie and tried only one small spoonful of the stew. Even that made his brow break out in sweat. Hotah could sympathize. When first he came to Dorne, the fiery food would tie his bowels in knots and burn his tongue. (aDwD, The Watcher)

So, Hotah picked up on Balon’s body signs like a lie detector, while he did not yet know of Cersei’s murderous plan and what role Balon plays in it. Once Doran explained it to the Sand Snakes and the reader, we come to understand in retrospect that Balon was ordered to extend the invite to Trystane, knowing full well he has to guide the boy right into the planned ambush. Balon is nearly panicking when Prince Doran suggests they travel by ship to King’s Landing, instead of overland.

“By ship?” Ser Balon seemed taken aback. “That … would that be safe, my prince? Autumn is a bad season for storms, or so I’ve heard, and … the pirates in the Stepstones, they …” (aDwD, The Watcher)

Doran refers to Balon’s feeble attempt at dissuading Prince Doran from going to King’s Landing by ship when he revealed Cersei’s plan to the Sand Snakes.

“This is monstrous,” said Lady Nym. “I would not have believed it, not of a Kingsguard knight.”
“They are sworn to obey, just as my captain is,” the prince said. “I had my doubts as well, but you all saw how Ser Balon balked when I suggested that we go by sea. A ship would have disturbed all the queen’s arrangements.” (aDwD, The Watcher)

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Sigil of House Swann

aFfC already acquainted us with Cersei’s shocking ways to get people murdered, and the Kettlebacks have been known to the reader since aCoK to have low morals. Balon Swann, however, has not yet been known by the reader to be an amoral man. Both Tyrion and Jaime approve of Balon’s appointment as Kingsguard.

[Tyrion] approved of his sister’s choice of Ser Balon Swann to take the place of the slain Preston Greenfield. The Swanns were Marcher lords, proud, powerful, and cautious. Pleading illness, Lord Gulian Swann had remained in his castle, taking no part in the war, but his eldest son had ridden with Renly and now Stannis, while Balon, the younger, served at King’s Landing. If he’d had a third son, Tyrion suspected he’d be off with Robb Stark. It was not perhaps the most honorable course, but it showed good sense; whoever won the Iron Throne, the Swanns intended to survive. In addition to being well born, young Ser Balon was valiant, courtly, and skilled at arms; good with a lance, better with a morningstar, superb with the bow. He would serve with honor and courage. (aCoK, Tyrion XI)

Jaime had served with Meryn Trant and Boros Blount for years; adequate fighters, but Trant was sly and cruel, and Blount a bag of growly air. Ser Balon Swann was better suited to his cloak, and of course the Knight of Flowers was supposedly all a knight should be. The fifth man was a stranger to him, this Osmund Kettleblack. […] “The king is dead,” Jaime began. “My sister’s son, a boy of thirteen, murdered at his own wedding feast in his own hall. All five of you were present. All five of you were protecting him. And yet he’s dead.” He waited to see what they would say to that, but none of them so much as cleared a throat. The Tyrell boy is angry, and Balon Swann’s ashamed, he judged. From the other three Jaime sensed only indifference. (aSoS, Jaime VIII)

He felt ashamed over Joffrey dying, despite the fact he once jested they would need three glasses to toast to the health of the King, during the War of the Five Kings. He testified during Tyrion’s trial that he believed Tyrion to be innocent of murdering Joffrey.

Ser Addam had told it true; the first man ushered in was Ser Balon Swann of the Kingsguard. “Lord Hand,” he began, after the High Septon had sworn him to speak only truth, “I had the honor to fight beside your son on the bridge of ships. He is a brave man for all his size, and I will not believe he did this thing.” A murmur went through the hall, and Tyrion wondered what mad game Cersei was playing. Why offer a witness that believes me innocent? He soon learned. Ser Balon spoke reluctantly of how he had pulled Tyrion away from Joffrey on the day of the riot. “He did strike His Grace, that’s so. It was a fit of wroth, no more. A summer storm. The mob near killed us all.” (aSoS, Tyrion IX)

He is invulnerable to Arianne’s attempts of seduction. He is affronted on principle by the manner in which Gregor died – poison.

“That is as it may be, my lady,” said Balon Swann, “but Ser Gregor was a knight, and a knight should die with sword in hand. Poison is a foul and filthy way to kill.” (aDwD, The Watcher)

Whether he would have participated without protest in beating Sansa or would have objected like Ser Arys, we do not know. Ser Balon only became a kingsguard after the riot, and by then Tyrion had already made sure Sansa’s physical abuse had ceased.

Symbollically, George linked him to the honorable side of the Night’s Watch, for his home was Stonehelm overseeing the Red Watch, and George pitted him against Slynt’s son during Joffrey’s nameday tourney as a foreshadowing parallel to Slynt’s fate at the Night’s Watch (see The Trail of the Red Stallion – Sansa’s tourneys). Hence, the reader has plenty of reasons to doubt Balon’s knowing participation in the plot, and therefore reason to doubt Prince Doran’s assertions about the plot.

And indeed, if the reader had learned of this through Arianne’s POV there would be debate about the veracity of the plot. We never actually heard it verified in Cersei’s POV. She only hinted at something unsavory, beyond delivering the skull. And Arianne already knew of this plot before the feast, so any observation she would have made of Balon Swann would come across as prejudiced. This is the foremost reason why George chose Areo Hotah to be the POV. Hotah did not yet know of the plot and independently gives the reader all the body sign clues about Balon Swann that verify the knight has been ordered to get a Lord’s innocent son killed. Add the fact that his sigil are a white and black swan fighting, and we know Balon Swann must be at inner conflict with his vows.*

His snowy cloak was clasped at the throat by two swans on a silver brooch. One was ivory, the other onyx, and it seemed to Areo Hotah as if the two of them were fighting. (aDwD, the Watcher)

So many vows . . . they make you swear and swear. Defend the king. Obey the king. Keep his secrets. Do his bidding. Your life for his. But obey your father. Love your sister. Protect the innocent. Defend the weak. Respect the gods. Obey the laws. It’s too much. No matter what you do, you’re forsaking one vow or the other.” (aFfC, Catelyn VII)

“My lord.” Ser Balon drew himself up. “On my sword, on my honor, on my father’s name, I swear . . . I shall not do as you did.” (aSoS, Jaime VIII)

* Yes this raises the question where George is going with Balon Swann, the “little brother” of Donnel Swann, heir to Stonehelm. Balon swears to Jaime he will not be a kingslayer, in response to Jaime’s inquiry of Donnel Swann’s loyalty, after Donnel first rallied to Renly, then fought for Stannis at the Blackwater, got captured and bent the knee to Joffrey and after Joffrey’s death swore fealty to Tommen. Though I myself tend to lean to Jaime or Tyrion as the Valonqar in Cersei’s prophecy, I cannot exclude the possibility that George has bigger plans for Balon and that he might end up as a Queenslayer. (See here for further discussion: Balon as Valonquar?)

We can conclude that Doran’s reveal of Cersei’s plot is indeed what Cersei had planned.

Doran’s Plan and Myrish Lies

The chapter also informed us and the Sand Snakes on Doran’s response plan and it is meant to solve two issues. Obara points out that Balon meeting with Myrcella is dangerous: Ser Balon will see how Myrcella is short an ear and can reveal that Areo Hotah killed Arys Oakheart, a fellow Kingsguard of Ser Balon.

“Procrastinate, obscure, prevaricate, dissemble, and delay all you like, Uncle, Ser Balon must still come face-to-face with Myrcella at the Water Gardens, and when he does he’s like to see she’s short an ear. And when the girl tells him how your captain cut Arys Oakheart from neck to groin with that steel wife of his, well …” (aDwD, the Watcher)

This is indeed an issue. But Doran and Arianne prepared for it: they will blame Gerold Dayne for all of it, both the maiming of Myrcella as well as killing Gerold Dayne.

“No.” Princess Arianne unfolded from the cushion where she sat and put a hand on Hotah’s arm. “That wasn’t how it happened, Cousin. Ser Arys was slain by Gerold Dayne.”
The Sand Snakes looked at one another. “Darkstar?”
Darkstar did it,” [Hotah’s] little princess said. “He tried to kill Princess Myrcella too. As she will tell Ser Balon.”
Nym smiled. “That part at least is true.”
It is all true,” said the prince, with a wince of pain. Is it his gout that hurts him, or the lie? “And now Ser Gerold has fled back to High Hermitage, beyond our reach.” (aDwD, the Watcher)

All will lie, including Myrcella, to Ser Balon. It is an obvious lie to all people present and the reader. The man who killed Ser Arys is the POV. Arianne saw it happen, and we read it in Arianne’s chapter. The person who likely did not see it happen was Myrcella, for she was attacked at the same time by Dayne.

Still, George makes a point of it to have Hotah, the lie detector wearing mirroring armor, identify it as a lie in his POV. This serves to relay the objectivity of the narrator to the reader. Areo Hotah is not someone to sugar coat his prince’s lies when he is lying. The lie also ties to a symbol that George tends to use to warn the reader about deception and lies. That Arbor gold represents lies is well known*. The same is true for everything Myrish: Doran uses a Myrish blanket to cover his gouted legs.

* see Lies and Arbor Gold at Westeros.org (2013), All Lies and Arbor Gold on reddit (2015), and examples on Quora.

Not until the doors of his solar were safely closed behind them did he wheel his chair about to face the women. Even that effort left him breathless, and the Myrish blanket that covered his legs caught between two spokes as he rolled, so he had to clutch it to keep it from being torn away. Beneath the coverlet, his legs were pale, soft, ghastly. Both of his knees were red and swollen, and his toes were almost purple, twice the size they should have been. (aDwD, the Watcher)

When Areo wonders whether Doran winces from the lie or the gout, both relate to the blanket, as the blanket is Myrish (lies) and hides his hideous gouted legs.

I will not present all the examples of Myrish lies in this essay. There are so many examples it requires a whole essay of its own. Maybe one day I will write it, for I have not yet encountered such a one. Or perhaps someone else will write it. But I will highlight two here that are relevant to mirrors and spying. The first one is Arya’s mirror at the House of Black and White.

“Puff up your cheeks.” She did. “Lift your eyebrows. No, higher.” She did that too. “Good. See how long you can hold that. It will not be long. Try it again on the morrow. You will find a Myrish mirror in the vaults. Train before it for an hour every day. Eyes, nostrils, cheeks, ears, lips, learn to rule them all.” He cupped her chin. “Who are you?”
“No one.”
A lie. A sad little lie, child.”
She found the Myrish mirror the next day, and every morn and every night she sat before it with a candle on each side of her, making faces. Rule your face, she told herself, and you can lie. (aFfC, Arya II)

Mirrors reveal the truth. They do not reflect lies. But Arya specifically uses a metaphorical lie detector to train her face in order to learn to lie. As a real world concept it is rather simple. Symbolically though it is a twisted form of training. And while several characters look at their reflection in mirrors, the sole time we are told a mirror is Myrish mirror is in Arya’s POV, and only to train to lie.

Another example are Myrish lenses, especially lens tubes. This is actually the very first Myrish object that appears in the series, and the one I used on the home page to illustrate the concept of symbolism. But that Myrish lens contained a letter with Lysa’s lie claiming that Cersei had killed Jon Arryn. Furthermore in optics the terms real and virtual (false) are scientifically used in relation to the type of image a lens produces. A so called real image is an upside-down image, whereas a virtual image is a produced image that looks straight up. lensesmirrors01

For example, the image projected on the back of our eye, after reflected light of an object passes through the lens of our eye is a real upside-down image. Our nerve system and brain turns it back up. A lens tube produces a virtual image, which looks closer and/or bigger than they are, and thus it technically creates an illusion. Hence a real world spyglass is a lying glass, and only Myr makes desired spyglasses on Planetos.

Now, Doran’s Myrish blanket slips from his lap, exposing his legs. So, basically George makes Doran out to be a liar most of the time, someone who keeps up an illusion of being a pacifist, but the mask slips here. For the first time in their lives, the Sand Snakes get to know the real Prince Doran. Not only do get they the shock of a lifetime when they hear about Cersei’s plan for Trystane, they end up genuinely humbled by how far ahead he is of them when it comes to being prepared, and they all embrace their tasks. Note how this slippping of the blanket occurs before Doran commences to make his reveals and only when Hotah puts him to bed does a blanket fully cover him again.

Later, when Arianne had gone, he put down his longaxe and lifted Prince Doran into his bed. “Until the Mountain crushed my brother’s skull, no Dornishmen had died in this War of the Five Kings,” the prince murmured softly, as Hotah pulled a blanket over him. “Tell me, Captain, is that my shame or my glory?” (aDwD, the Watcher)

More importantly, the blanket actually emphasizes that Doran is not lying to the Sand Snakes and Hotah about what he reveals, when it slips away and he pulls it free from his wheelchair.

While his plan to have Myrcella lie to Balon the next day may work for a little while, Obara points out that sooner or later Myrcella will reveal the truth and that Ser Balon cannot be allowed to carry tales back to King’s Landing. Tyene proposes to kill him. After learning of Cersei’s plot to kill Trystane, Obara demands her spear back. But Doran has another idea.

Prince Doran raised a hand. His knuckles were as dark as cherries and near as big. “Ser Balon is a guest beneath my roof. He has eaten of my bread and salt. I will not do him harm. No. We will travel to the Water Gardens, where he will hear Myrcella’s story and send a raven to his queen. The girl will ask him to hunt down the man who hurt her. If he is the man I judge, Swann will not be able to refuse. Obara, you will lead him to High Hermitage to beard Darkstar in his den. The time is not yet come for Dorne to openly defy the Iron Throne, so we must needs return Myrcella to her mother, but I will not be accompanying her. That task will be yours, Nymeria. The Lannisters will not like it, no more than they liked it when I sent them Oberyn, but they dare not refuse. We need a voice in council, an ear at court. Be careful, though. King’s Landing is a pit of snakes.” […]
“And what of me?” asked Tyene.
“Your mother was a septa. Oberyn once told me that she read to you in the cradle from the Seven-Pointed Star. I want you in King’s Landing too, but on the other hill. The Swords and the Stars have been re-formed, and this new High Septon is not the puppet that the others were. Try and get close to him.” (aDwD, the Watcher)

And so far, all these plans have been executed. Kevan visits Cersei in her cell and relays the news that Balon wrote to King’s Landing – Myrcella accused Gerold Dayne of both maiming her and slaying Ser Arys. Meanwhile Kevan’s POV in the epilogue confirms that King’s Landing is expecting to welcome Myrcella in the company of Lady Nym who will take the seventh seat at the small council, and that Balon Swann is hunting after Darkstar. Meanwhile Arianne’s excerpt of tWoW, reveals that Areo Hotah is hunting Gerold Dayne together with Obara and Balon.

Balon’s Fate

The following is the first observation that Hotah has about Balon.

Ser Balon Swann was taut as a drawn bow, the captain of guards observed. This new white knight was not so tall nor comely as the old one, but he was bigger across the chest, burlier, his arms thick with muscle. […] The man who wore [the fighting swans] looked a fighter too. This one will not die so easy as the other. He will not charge into my axe the way Ser Arys did. He will stand behind his shield and make me come at him. If it came to that, Hotah would be ready. (aDwD, the Watcher)

It reminds instantly of Hotah’s foreshadowing thoughts on Ser Arys Oakheart in Hotah’s POV chapter of aFfC.

“Hotah had felt a certain sadness whenever he saw the man in the long snowy cloak, […]. One day, he sensed, the two of them would fight; on that day Oakheart would die, with the captain’s longaxe crashing through his skull.” (aFfC, The Captain of the Guards)

Hotah notes several differences between Balon and Arys. For example Balon is not that easily seduced by Arianne, but he also expects them to fight very differently, with Balon being the more difficult fighter. Because Areo’s thoughts on Arys foreshadowed Oakheart’s fate, it is tempting to the reader to see the same POV’s thoughts on Balon also as a foreshadowing – that one day Balon and Hotah will fight one another and one of them will die. And certainly on the surface it seems as if Doran is setting up an excellent trap for Balon to die, when he sends Obara with him. After all, she argued Balon was to never leave Dorne alive and demanded her spear back to kill him once she learned of the plot about Trystane. If both Balon and Darkstar were to die in confrontation, Doran succeeds in getting rid of two problems: Gerold Dayne and Balon.

But there are three remarks that suggest this idea that Doran wishes Balon’s death may be a red herring. First of all, Doran “defended” Balon as having sworn to obey, just like his own captain of the guards, when it comes to Balon’s involvement in the plot to kill Trystane. At the very least, Doran’s “defense” of Balon reveals that Prince Doran does not deem the Kingsguard knight as immoral per se. In fact, he later also says “If he is the man I judge, Swann will not be able to to refuse” Myrcella’s request to hunt Gerold Dayne. Furthermore, Arianne’s seduction of Ser Arys Oakheart opened Doran’s eyes to the possibility that a Kingsguard knight could be “turned”.

Let us consider Doran’s “if he is the man I judge” more closely. Doran suspected Balon to be of such a character that he would accept Myrcella’s request. This brings us back to three historical Kingsguards – Arthur Dayne, Gerold Hightower and Oswald Whent. In his “Tower of Joy” dream, Ned Stark questions them about their choice not to be with Prince Rhaegar at the Trident, not with King Aerys II, not with Viserys on Dragonstone and not surrendering like the Tyrells and Selmy to Robert Baratheon. To this, Ser Gerold Hightower answered, “We swore a vow.” This recall to Gerold Hightower, may be why George chose to give Darkstar the name Gerold. Even the Lord Commander Gerold who was a stickler to rules and not intervening when Aerys abused his own wife made clear that all three had sworn a vow that was more important than anything else. Whatever that vow was, whatever the order they had been given, they stuck to it, even after Rhaegar’s death. In a way they found moral freedom from Aerys to follow their own consciousness while remaining a Kingsguard.

In the Dornish plot, Myrcella serves a similar purpose to Ser Arys and Ser Balon as Rhaegar does with the three Kingsguard at the Tower of Joy. Myrcella is not yet an adult like Rhaegar, nor is she a warrior. She is King Tommen’s heir though. Arianne hoped to use her to dethrone Tommen by crowning her, which echoes the Whents vying to set up a great council to make Rhaegar the regent over his own mad father, and also echoes Tywin’s suspected hope to get Aerys killed in Duskendale so he could crown Rhaegar.

Doran uses Myrcella to give an order to Balon Swann that will effectively derail Cersei’s plot for Trystane. Myrcella is not the king nor the regent, and in fact she was not under direct threat for her life anymore. Ser Balon certainly had wriggle room to not obey her, but to pack her up and carry her back to King’s Landing kicking and screaming. Except, Ser Balon was conflicted about the mission that Cersei had given him (hence the Swann sigil), and he grabbed the excuse that Myrcella gave him with both hands, even knowingly allow Myrcella to be escorted back to King’s Landing without him guarding her. This is why Cersei’s choice of Ser Balon for this Trystane ambush task is so stunning. If Cersei had sent Meryn Trant instead of Ser Balon, Trant would have ignored Myrcella’s request.

It seems as if Prince Doran knew what he was doing with Balon Swann when he offered him an alternative to be a heroic Kingsguard, instead of a villainous one, and may be counting on the confrontation having an impact on Balon where he survives, and returns to King’s Landing a changed Kingsguard who lets his own consciousness outweigh immoral orders given to him by Cersei. So, Hotah’s “if it comes to that” may be a hint that unlike Ser Arys, Balon and Hotah will not fight one another at all.

Ricasso’s Toast

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Ricasso’s toast to King Tommen

Another aspect of Hotah’s chapter is the toast to King Tommen. Some do toast, others do not. Areo takes specific note who does not, because he expects these to potentially cause issues for house Martell. We can divide these non-toasters into several groups.

  • There are those who are closely allied or tied to Oberyn Martell, and Gregor’s skull does not satisfy their thirst for revenge.
    • the three eldest Sand Snakes – Obara, Lady Nym and Tyene – who are Oberyn’s daughters;
    • Ser Daemon Sand was Oberyn’s squire, knighted by Oberyn, rumored to also have been Oberyn’s lover and he sent a letter to Lady Nym about Oberyn and the Mountain;
    • the Fowler twins are close friends of Lady Nym;
    • Lord Uller is the grandfather of the four youngest Sand Snakes, through his natural daughter Ellaria Sand;
    • Dagos Manwoody also helped Oberyn arm up agains the Mountain, like Daemon Sand; so his sentiments are likely due to a personal tie to Oberyn.
  • As with any region of Westeros, you also always have houses who disagree with their liege and vie for an opportunity. They have a political motive to seek war for war’s sake and to oppose seeming peace efforts by Prince Doran.
    • House Uller has a personal connection with Oberyn, via Ellaria Sand, but they are reputed for being mad or worse (violent and aggressive). Arianne contemplated sending a letter for aid to the Ullers, but refrains from reaching out to them: she does not want to bring anymore lives in danger. This “mad or worse” impression is emphasised by the fact that Prince Doran has Ellaria’s children by Oberyn in his grasp at the Water Gardens. If the Ullers refuse the toast it is not because they care for Oberyn’s children.
  • We should expect some pretending to be openly disagreeing with Prince Doran’s public policy, in order to gain the trust of those houses that seek war, but are actually in league with Prince Doran. Think of Corbray being Littlefinger’s agent with the Lord Declarant in the Vale. This would help them and Doran in learning what true troublemakers plan.
    • Prince Doran squired for Lord Gargalen. Not only do squires feel a personal loyalty towards the lord or knight they serve, the lords and knights tend to feel like a foster parent to their squires. By the tale how Lord Gargalen attempted to ease Doran’s mind about the early birth of his sister Elia, we get a glimpse of Lord Gargalen’s fostering feelings. The fact that Prince Doran fostered Quentyn to House Yronwood hoping for a personal bond of loyalty to grow between Quentyn and Lord Yronwood indicates Doran experienced something similar with Lord Gargalen.
    • The Wyls entertained Balon Swann for over a week with hunting and hawking in the Boneway to delay his arrival to Sunspear. They did Doran’s bidding while they were far out of reach of Sunspear’s wrath, but do not toast to King Tommen in Doran’ face? That certainly seems odd.
  • Those who do toast are
    • Princess Arianne, who is in Doran’s confidence since the end of aFfC. Not having been a witness to the conversation that brought Doran and Arianne closer together, Hotah takes note that Arianne and Doran share a secret.
    • Lady Jordayne of the Tor and Lady Nymella Toland of Ghost Hill both arranged games for Balon Swann to delay him (like the Wyls). Lady Toland is not in Doran’s closest confidence. Lady Nymella seems an anxious woman who is dutifully loyal to House Martell. It is likely that Lady Jordayne is similarly loyal: Nymella and Jordayne are compared by Doran when he says Lady Toland would attempt to outmatch Lady Jordayne in entertaining Balon Swann with games.
    • The Lord of Godsgrace would be Ser Ryon Allyrion, the heir of Lady Delonne Allyrion, and father of Daemon Sand (the bastard of Godsgrace). In aFfC, Doran had Daemon Sand imprisoned upon his return from King’s Landing, for Daemon demanded the release of the Sand Snakes. Ryon’s motivation to toast would be an apology for his natural son’s potential treasonous actions and prove to Prince Doran they are loyal to him. Though Daemon Sand is not in a cell anymore, he can still be considered a hostage.
    • Ser Deziel Dalt, the knight of Lemonwood, is brother to Ser Andrey “Drey” Dalt (one of Arianne’s conspiritors in the attempt to crown Myrcella). Ser Deziel has a reason to prove himself loyal to whatever Doran wishes, especially since Prince Doran let Drey off with three years service of Lady Mellario in Norvos, instead of wasting away in Ghaston Grey. On top of that Arianne considers him utterly dutiful to Prince Doran.

    We conclude that the toasters, aside from Arianne, are of little to no consequence in this chapter’s revelations or Doran’s intentions. He trusts them to be loyal. There is no need to persuade them nor confide his actual plans with them.

Doran does not confide in those who toast, except for Arianne, but instead in those who did not, such as the Sand Snakes and Areo Hotah later that same evening. He confides in Daemon Sand who is to accompany Arianne as her shield on her mission to meet with Jon Connington. Prince Doran ordered two hosts to amass in the Boneway and the Prince’s Pass. They are led by the Yronwoods and Wyls who control the Boneway, whereas House Fowler is warden of the Prince’s Pass where the Manwoodys have their seat Kingsgrave. House Yronwood was not present at the feast of this chapter, and the other three did not toast. So they too have been confided in by Prince Doran for his war plans. Hence, Areo Hotah’s thought to watch the non-toasters in particular is the advice the reader should go by, not so much because the reader should fear them causing trouble for Prince Doran, but because Doran uses those people to execute his war plans.

Armageddon’s Mirrors

Armageddon RagSince the role is so small, we will not devote a stand alone essay on the character called Mirrors of George’s novel The Armageddon Rag of 1983. Unlike Areo Hotah, Mirrors is not a POV whatsoever and appears in the novel but a few times. But both have a similar status and like Hotah, George uses Mirrors to tip off the reader to what is really going on. (spoiler warning ahead)

This novel is not set in a world of epic fantasy, but on earth in the early eighties of the 20th century. It is part a rock novel, part a murder mystery, part ghost story and includes winks to Tolkien – what George’s father would dub “weird stuff”.  The protagonist is former hippie journalist Sandy Blair who begins to investigate the bizarre and brutal murder of rock promotor Jamie Lynch. One of the bands Lynch once promoted were the Nazgûl (there is the wink to Tolkien). This band split ten years earlier to the day in 1971, after their lead singer Patrick Henry “Hobbit” Hobbins (someone with absolute albinism) was shot while on stage during a concert at West Mesa. The murder of Jamie Lynch and several other disastrous events push the three surviving band members to reunite with the rich Edan Morse as promotor. Edan is rumored to have had ties and sympathies with radical-and-violent left revolutionists in the 70s.  This promotor manages to procure a doppleganger of the dead Hobbins (but not having the same voice abilities) – Larry Richmond. Investigating the murder of Jamie Lynch and Edan Morse’s role and motivation to promote the reunion tour of the Nazgûl, Sandy ends up being the band’s press agent and starts a love affair with Edan’s fanatical aid, Ananda. As occult events occur where it seems that the dead Hobbins manages to possess Larry Richmond on stage, Sandy fears and suspects Morse intends to perform an occult sacrificial ritual that will unleash a dark supernatural power upon the world to make the radical-left revolution happen after all.

Mirrors is one of the roadie bodyguards hired on the tour. Sandy and Ananda call him Mirrors because he is recognizable by the pair of mirroring sunglasses he wears. So, like Areo Hotah, Mirrors is a guard and he watches the events, characters and the world from behind a mirror. He appears for the first time in chapter nineteen of the book.

The road manager was a veteran hired for his experience, and he did his job well enough, but the roadies were like no other roadies Sandy had ever encountered. They were quiet, distant, humorless. They never got drunk, never got stoned. […] One of the men wore silvered sunglasses everywhere and carried a nunchaku. […] But when Gort gave them an order – Gort had been put in charge of the roadies – they obeyed with an almost military precision. (The Armageddon Rag, Nineteen)

Hotah too is a quiet character, a watcher, detached, humorless, dry. He never drinks on duty. He has no lover. “Serve. Protect. Obey.” That is Areo’s task as it is Mirrors. George stresses the military discipline of the roadies, including Mirrors, during a discussion between Sandy and Ananda.

Ten days before Chicago, Sandy had a brief discussion with Ananda about the orcs. “They’re Edan’s people, aren’t they?” he asked her. “Alfies or worse? That’s why they seem so damned, I don’t know … disciplined, I guess.”
She smiled. “So? I’m one of Edan’s people too, remember?”
“Not like them. There’s something wrong with them, ‘Nanda. I think they’re hearing things on the Jim Jones/Charlie Manson wavelength if you know what I mean. I think they’d do anything Gort told them to do. Anything.”
They would.”
“And that doesn’t bother you?”
They’re soldiers,” she told him. (The Armageddon Rag, Nineteen)

The first time it seems as if Hobbins managed to pass through and possess Larry Richmond during the Nazgul’s first actual reunion concert, Larry’s dog Balrog becomes aggressive and wants to attack Larry-turned-Hobbins (who hated dogs) back stage at the after-party. The dog only calms down again, once Larry becomes himself again. Ananda has Gort take the dog outside. Needing air after a couple of screwdrivers, Sandy wanders outside.

He went out the back door. One of the roadies was there, the man with the silver mirrored shades. He stared at Sandy and said not a word. Balrog was there too, tied up just outside the door. He barked, and Sandy patted his head before making his way to the street. (The Armageddon Rag, Twenty One)

But when Sandy returns, he finds the roadie gone, the door locked and Balrog’s head nearly severed off. That night, Sandy confronts Edan Morse over the butchered dog. This is when Ananda first refers to the roadie with sunglasses as Mirrors.

Sandy held out his hands. “I … the dog.” His voice was thick. “They butchered the dog. Richmond’s dog.”
Morse feigned astonishment. “You know anything about this, ‘Nanda?”
Mirrors was out watching the dog. He went inside for a couple minutes to bum some cigarettes. Somebody did the job while he was gone.”
“Gort,” Sandy said suddenly, glaring at the big man.
“Hey, fuck that shit,” Gort grumbled. “I been here with Edan for hours. Hell, if I wanted to kill the dog I could of done it at the party, when the fucker went nuts.” (The Armageddon Rag, Twenty Two)

During the tour, it becomes clear that Ananda has some deadly physical reflexes and that Mirrors takes orders from her. When Edan Morse understands the price he (and others) will have to pay to bring Armageddon about, he wants to stop it, but Ananda takes over. Sandy only sees one way to stop the doom: shoot Larry Richmond on the West Mesa stage while possessed by Hobbins before the song Armageddon Rag is completed. He aims to climb a light-effects tower without Mirrors spying him.

He waited until Mirrors had glanced away, then pulled himself up unto the tower, and began to climb. […] He was scarcely ten feet up, on the same level as the guard, when Mirrors turned and saw him. Sandy tried to flinch away, to conceal himself in the shadow of the tower’s leg, but it was no good; he had been seen. Mirrors came toward him, walking along a girder as sure-footed as a cat, his nunchaku in hand. No retreat, Sandy thought. He braced himself against the leg, prepared to use the rifle as a club.
Then Mirrors stopped. “You,” he said. He nodded. “Didn’t recognize you. Go on up.” He smiled and turned his back. (Armageddon Rag, Twenty Seven)

Just minutes before, Mirrors knocked a girl from that same tower with his nunchaku. So, Mirrors’ relaxed, smiling response – after Sandy believes he escaped a hotel room (where Ananda knocked him out) by stealing the car keys that Ananda left “unguarded” on top of the TV – is strange to say the least. It takes Sandy a great deal of the concert to realize the implication of Mirrors’ behavior in the above scene, but the reader is already clued in that Ananda wants Sandy to shoot the possessed Richmond on the stage. Once he appears on page, Mirrors is a tip-off to the reader what is really going on, who holds the strings and what their actual plan is.

Lord Guncer Sunglass

Interesting enough, in a world where people do not wear sunglasses, we do have a very minor character of House Sunglass. And yes, George seems to put as many references to Mirrors of Armageddon Rag in this character. His first name is Guncer. Half of that name is the word gun. And the character Mirrors becomes an immense clue to what is really going on, when Sandy climbs the “tower of light” with a duffelbag of guns (that will never go off). The lands that he is lord over are Sweetport Sound. Drop -port and you end up with Sweet Sound. Music is a sweet sound. And this would make for another pointer to The Armageddon Rag, as it is a rock music novel. The title refers to a song of the Nazgûl band, and it is this song of theirs that must be song at West Mesa to bring about the revolutionary apocalypse. And of course we have the word song in the series’ title, with a heavy wink at an oncoming apocalypse, since in Norse myth both ice and fire are hellbent on destroying the world, heavens and time itself.

I think it is safe to say that Lord Guncer Sunglass serves as an early hint by George to a truth in a confusing mess. So, who the hell is he? Well, he appears in aCoK’s Prologue in Cressen’s POV as one of the few Lords who supports Stannis’ claim to the throne.

“Your Grace,” Stannis repeated bitterly. “You mock me with a king’s style, yet what am I king of? Dragonstone and a few rocks in the narrow sea, there is my kingdom.” He descended the steps of his chair to stand before the table, his shadow falling across the mouth of the Blackwater Rush and the painted forest where King’s Landing now stood. There he stood, brooding over the realm he sought to claim, so near at hand and yet so far away. “Tonight I am to sup with my lords bannermen, such as they are. Celtigar, Velaryon, Bar Emmon, the whole paltry lot of them. A poor crop, if truth be told, but they are what my brothers have left me. That Lysene pirate Salladhor Saan will be there with the latest tally of what I owe him, and Morosh the Myrman will caution me with talk of tides and autumn gales, while Lord Sunglass mutters piously of the will of the Seven. Celtigar will want to know which storm lords are joining us. Velaryon will threaten to take his levies home unless we strike at once. What am I to tell them? What must I do now?”  (aCoK, Prologue)

The first thing we learn of this man is that he is pious, a man of the Faith. Later on in the prologue, we get a short description that he wears moonstones at the throat, wrist and finger.

Cressen looked over the knights and captains and lords sitting silent. Lord Celtigar, aged and sour, wore a mantle patterned with red crabs picked out in garnets. Handsome Lord Velaryon chose sea-green silk, the white gold seahorse at his throat matching his long fair hair. Lord Bar Emmon, that plump boy of fourteen, was swathed in purple velvet trimmed with white seal, Ser Axell Florent remained homely even in russet and fox fur, pious Lord Sunglass wore moonstones at throat and wrist and finger, and the Lysene captain Salladhor Saan was a sunburst of scarlet satin, gold, and jewels. Only Ser Davos dressed simply, in brown doublet and green wool mantle, and only Ser Davos met his gaze, with pity in his eyes.  (aCoK, Prologue)

Color symbolism is used over and over by George since his earliest writings to indicate certain factions. We recommend reading George’s introductions to each section of the gathered short stories and novellas in Dreamsongs for this. The basic color symbolism scheme is laid out already in one of his earliest published short story Only Kids are Afraid of the Dark. Black and red combined are the colors of the demon Prince Saagel, while green and gold are the colors of Dr. Weird, a savior angel. George never wavered from this scheme, though the writing became far more ambiguous with time and his color palette expanded. He lays out that color palette in aCoK’s Prologue, like factions.

The single red of Lord Celtigar stands for a red herring, or a false religion, or a character you should not put your trust in, because they either die or lead you to even greater danger. A great short story example for this is And Seven Times Never Kill a Man (see the Fattest Leech’s Bakkalon the Pale Child and Flames). Lord Velaryion’s green-sea with gold harks back to Dr. Weird. Salladhor Saan’s sunburst of scarlet and gold is the scheme of the Martells. Purple stands for the descendants of the Emperors of the Dawn, proto- Valyrian and Valyrian, but also Braavos. Then you have trickster foxes (see upcoming Mirror Mirror: Swords, Foxes and Beauty).

What are we missing here? Ah yes, ice and the Faith. And with those moonstones for a pious man we get two for one. It seems odd for a man named Sunglass to be linked to ice. We associate sunglasses with something you wear on hot scorching sunny days. But if you think of them as “shields against the sun”, you can see why sunglasses could fit as an ice symbol. Others after all hide or shield themselves from the sun. And if you, like Lord Melnibonian, believe the reference to mean a sunstone in-world, it fits even more. It is hypothesized that Vikings used a certain type of stone, called sunstones, to help navigate, for you could locate the sun’s position with it while the sky is overcast. An overcast snow sky sounds like the thing.

He never appears on page anymore after the Prologue, but he is mentioned several times in Davos’ chapters, and thus you know his fate. While Lord Guncer Sunglass supported Stannis’ claim, he backs out when Stannis has the sept at Dragonstone destroyed. And for that he is put in a cell.

Dragonstone’s sept had been where Aegon the Conqueror knelt to pray the night before he sailed. That had not saved it from the queen’s men. They had overturned the altars, pulled down the statues, and smashed the stained glass with warhammers. Septon Barre could only curse them, but Ser Hubard Rambton led his three sons to the sept to defend their gods. The Rambtons had slain four of the queen’s men before the others overwhelmed them. Afterward Guncer Sunglass, mildest and most pious of lords, told Stannis he could no longer support his claim. Now he shared a sweltering cell with the septon and Ser Hubard’s two surviving sons. (aCoK, Davos I)

Now, it makes sense why Lord Guncer Sunglass is associated with ice symbolism. He renounced Stannis’ claim, because Stannis showed he wants to make Rh’llor and the red-fire religion a state religion, willing to destroy the places of worship of the Faith by fanatical zealots. The enemy of fire is ice, and the enemy of ice is fire. So, once Stannis declared war on the Faith on behalf of the red god of fire, logically devout men of the Faith ought to be tied to ice  in a symbolic way.

When Davos is picked up by Salladhor Saan after the defeat at Blackwater, he learns that Selyse and Melisandre burned Lord Sunglass in her fires as a traitor.

“[…] While we were burning on the river, the queen was burning traitors. Servants of the dark, she named them, poor men, and the red woman sang as the fires were lit.”
Davos was unsurprised. I knew, he thought, I knew before he told me. “She took Lord Sunglass from the dungeons,” he guessed, “and Hubard Rambton’s sons.”
Just so, and burned them, as she will burn you. If you kill the red woman, they will burn you for revenge, and if you fail to kill her, they will burn you for the trying. She will sing and you will scream, and then you will die. And you have only just come back to life!” (aSoS, Davos II)

They are keeping me alive, for some purpose of their own. He did not like to think what that might be. Lord Sunglass had been confined in the cells beneath Dragonstone for a time, as had Ser Hubard Rambton’s sons; all of them had ended on the pyre.
[…]
Melisandre sighed. “They did not protect Guncer Sunglass. He prayed thrice each day, and bore seven seven-pointed stars upon his shield, but when R’hllor reached out his hand his prayers turned to screams, and he burned. Why cling to these false gods?”
[…]
Lord Alester waved his hand feebly. “Lord Celtigar was captured and bent the knee. Monford Velaryon died with his ship, the red woman burned Sunglass, and Lord Bar Emmon is fifteen, fat, and feeble. […]”(aSoS, Davos III)

George is really clubbering us on the head with this: Selyse and Mel burned a man, who denounced Stannis, when Stannis declared war on other religions but that of the Red God with the destruction of the sept. We learn that Stannis himself is not such a zealot himself, and becomes less so othe further and longer away he is from Melisandre in aDwD. In fact, he makes Davos his Hand, despite Davos refusing to renounce the Faith on Mel’s urging.

Stannis snorted. “Bar Emmon, that boy? My faithless grandfather? Celtigar has abandoned me, the new Velaryon is six years old, and the new Sunglass sailed for Volantis after I burned his brother.” He made an angry gesture. “A few good men remain, it’s true. Ser Gilbert Farring holds Storm’s End for me still, with two hundred loyal men. Lord Morrigen, the Bastard of Nightsong, young Chyttering, my cousin Andrew . . . but I trust none of them as I trust you, my lord of Rainwood. You will be my Hand. It is you I want beside me for the battle.” (aSoS, Davos IV)

Stannis prefers loyal and honest men over the zealous Queen’s Men. And if he takes responsibility for the burning of Sunglass, he likely does so, the same way Ned Stark took responsibility for Catelyn taking Tyrion Lannister. George had Selyse and Mel burn Sunglass, while Stannis was away. So, George wants to point us to a truth about Mel and Selyse, not Stannis. And alongside we learn Lord Guncer Sunglass had a brother, and he sailed off for Volantis, where Benerro ends up preaching over and over about Dany being Azor Ahai Reborn in aDwD.

Haldon nodded. “Benerro has sent forth the word from Volantis. Her coming is the fulfillment of an ancient prophecy. From smoke and salt was she born to make the world anew. She is Azor Ahai returned … and her triumph over darkness will bring a summer that will never end … death itself will bend its knee, and all those who die fighting in her cause shall be reborn …” (aDwD, Tyrion VI)

To proclaim Stannis the prophesied hero Azor Ahai returned, Mel had the Seven wooden statues of the sept of Dragonstone burned so he could take a burning sword from the pyre of the Seven and proclaim it Lightbringer.

By the time the song was done, only charwood remained of the gods, and the king’s patience had run its course. He took the queen by the elbow and escorted her back into Dragonstone, leaving Lightbringer where it stood. The red woman remained a moment to watch as Devan knelt with Byren Farring and rolled up the burnt and blackened sword in the king’s leather cloak. The Red Sword of Heroes looks a proper mess, thought Davos. (aCoK, Davos I)

With some spell, Mel manages to make the sword glow with a red and orange light, but both maester Aemon and Jon noticed that it did not give off heat. For this trickery and falsehood, Mel had the sept destroyed, several men killed in a fight and three men burned at the stake to die screaming, for a battle that Stannis was fated to lose, exactly through her meddling by getting Renly killed. Imagine being Guncer’s brother, arriving at Volantis and hear Benerro proclaim Dany Azor Ahai returned instead. Even Rh’llorists cannot agree over who is Azor Ahai. Our Lord Sunglass is George’s tip off that Mel is more likely to help bring about the apocalypse than stopping it, even though that is far from her intention. She is as fanatical and scarred as Ananda of The Armageddon Rag and as zealous and overly relying on tricky visions like Proctor Whyte of Seven Times Never Kill a Man, who in the end burns all the winter crops and hangs their own innocent children from a red wall.

Conclusion

The numerous reveals of the chapter The Watcher require a character who is a reliable narrator and lie detector. George’s readers have been trained to question almost everything by the time they get to aDwD, could be weary of so much info dumped on a platter in such a short amount of time. But the lie detecting mirror as a POV helps us see that for once George was not coy at all.

So, where Myrish objects and Arbor Gold stand for lies, mirrors reveal a crucial truth. We may not always understand all that is shown in such scenes at first read and without more information, but they are truthful. There is no deception. Even if the scenes include characters lying, we the reader will already be aware which are the lies.

We must also suspect that mirror-armor chapters contain and build up to crucial information or development and put major clues out there in plain sight that illuminate motivation, plans and goals of actors, even if the character wearing that mirror armor is but a Captain of the Guards with little to no plot significance himself, or a man wearing sunglasses or called Sunglass.

And just because a character may not see who or what is behind a mirror, this does not mean that there is not something or someone behind the mirror watching.

The Ragtag Band of Exiles

Aegon’s Team

Spoiler Warning – this essay contains a quote and a reference to a crucial point of Arianne’s arc in her excerpt chapters of tWoW. The quote is harmless in relation to plot, but I will repeat the spoiler warning for Arianne’s arc.

First I will determine all what unites this particular ragtag band; determine the member rules. Then I will address plot context. I tackle the prominent members separately and show you how they prove my assertions about ragtag band context and roles. This will include identity speculation, list and discuss the often proposed candidates, referring to essays and theories out there, and in some cases I will propose a candidate myself.

Lysono Maar – “We prefer to call ourselves a free brotherhood of exiles.” (tWoW, Arianne II)

The members of this band are defined by a backstory that led to a forced or voluntary exile. Their stories or origin reveals how they could not practice their life’s calling, except in exile, because of society’s or their peers’ short-sightedness, while plenty of their inferior colleagues get recognition in Westeros.

  • An armorer’s son cannot be a knight
  • A woman who had sex and had a child cannot be a religious instructor
  • A man who lost a battle cannot possibly win a war
  • A gay man cannot be a proper father

These type of prejudices affected characters in other ragtag bands as well1, but instead of turning into Bloody Mummers, outlaws or brothers of the Night’s Watch, the characters in this particular ragtag chose or were forced into exile. And in doing so, reclaimed their purpose and freedom.

The founder of this ragtag band of exiles was not Aegon, nor Jon Connington, nor the Golden Company, but Varys.

The shame of the lie still stuck in his craw, but Varys had insisted it was necessary. “We want no songs about the gallant exile,” the eunuch had tittered, in that mincing voice of his. “Those who die heroic deaths are long remembered, thieves and drunks and cravens soon forgotten.” […]
[…] Varys had been adamant about the need for secrecy. The plans that he and Illyrio had made with Blackheart had been known to them alone. The rest of the company had been left ignorant. What they did not know they could not let slip. (aDwD, JonCon I, The Lost Lord)

As original recruiter, Varys put his stamp on both the ideology and the goal of the ragtag band. Varys hates magic.

Magic, you mean?” Tyrion said impatiently. “Bloodspells, curses, shapeshifting, those sorts of things?” He snorted. […]
[…]”Yet I still dream of that night, my lord. Not of the sorcerer, nor his blade, nor even the way my manhood shriveled as it burned. I dream of the voice. The voice from the flames. Was it a god, a demon, some conjurer’s trick? I could not tell you, and I know all the tricks. All I can say for a certainty is that he called it, and it answered, and since that day I have hated magic and all those who practice it. If Lord Stannis is one such, I mean to see him dead.” (aCoK, Tyrion X)

Hence, anyone that Varys recruited or helped to recruit would follow the least magical religion – the Faith of the Seven. The recruited members are rationalists, at worst “superstitious”, but most importantly they do not practice magic or lack magical abilities. They are the closest thing to a secular ragtag band in the books.

Secondly, Varys is a master of mummery, of disguises, and so are the recruits living a life of disguise, but not a magical one: different name, different hair color, …

And yet, not all is false. While Varys is not dirty of machiavelistic methods² and murder to accomplish his goals for what he believes is the greater good, he espouses a belief in a uniting enlightened despot, who historically altered society from feudalism and serfdom to a far more meritocratic society and promoted the formation of middle class and cities³.

“No.” The eunuch’s voice seemed deeper. “He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them.” (aDwD, Epilogue)

Hence, Varys recruited members he believed to be genuine in their professions, callings and hearts, often because they experienced prejudice first hand. Even while disguised or keeping a secret, the ragtag members are true at heart. These are not false people, only in it for themselves and their more base needs, but following a calling that appeals to a higher nature, in reconciliation with their integrity of self.

And finally they all share the goal in hiding Aegon and keeping him alive.

So, all true ragtag members share these traits:

  • Exiles in hiding because of prejudice
  • Free
  • Followers of the Faith of Seven
  • Secular, rationalists, no magic
  • In disguise, keeping a secret, cautious or prudent
  • Yet true at heart, answering a calling of the higher self
  • Protect and instruct Aegon

Lastly, it must be noted that if Varys and Illyrio as founders start out by being the behind the scene leaders of the ragtag band, who recruit, form the plans and order the band where and when to go, Jon Connington and Aegon have now effectively taken control of the band, reducing Illyrio and Varys to men who will have to follow suit.

[…] Very little of what the fat man has anticipated has come to pass.” Griff slapped the hilt of his longsword with a gloved hand. “I have danced to the fat man’s pipes for years, Lemore. What has it availed us? The prince is a man grown.[…]

[…]”Which plan?” said Tristan Rivers. “The fat man’s plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? […]I have had enough of Illyrio’s plans. […]” (aDwD, The Lost Lord, Jon Connington I)

As they reject Illyrio’s plans, they also drop the disguises which Varys insisted was necessary.

[Jon Connington] was sick of hiding, sick of waiting, sick of caution. I do not have time enough for caution. […]

[…]Young Griff ran his fingers through his hair. “I am sick of this blue dye. We should have washed it out.” […]

[…]”No man could have asked for a worthier son,” Griff said, “but the lad is not of my blood, and his name is not Griff. My lords, I give you Aegon Targaryen, firstborn son of Rhaegar, Prince of Dragonstone, by Princess Elia of Dorne … soon, with your help, to be Aegon, the Sixth of His Name, King of Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men, and Lord of the Seven Kingdoms.”[…]

[…] It was not the prudent course, but he was tired of prudence, sick of secrets, weary of waiting. (aDwD, The Lost Lord, Jon Connington I)

Instead of remaining hidden, they decide to strike out by themselves, return to Westeros, reclaim lost lands and a kingdom (they hope). Hence  some of the rules alter for the members.

  • Instead of exiles, they are returned exiles who reclaim
  • Drop the disguise
  • Help Aegon take the Iron Throne

So, any of the others having secrets should be revealed in quick succession in tWoW. And if the rules change, other characters who were never exiled can be recruited to become part of the team, which is exactly what Jon Connington aims to do after taking Griffin’s Roost.

“[…] No one ever seems to mention the Vale, which suggests to me that the Arryns have taken no part in any of this.”
And Dorne?” The Vale was far away; Dorne was close. […] Without Daenerys and her dragons, Dorne was central to their hopes. “Write Sunspear. Doran Martell must know that his sister’s son is still alive and has come home to claim his father’s throne.”
“As you say, my lord.” The Halfmaester glanced at another parchment. “We could scarcely have timed our landing better. We have potential friends and allies at every hand.” […]
“[…]And whilst they dither, we will send out word secretly to likely friends in the stormlands and the Reach. And Dorne.” That was the crucial step. Lesser lords might join their cause for fear of harm or hope of gain, but only the Prince of Dorne had the power to defy House Lannister and its allies. “Above all else, we must have Doran Martell.” (aDwD, The Griffin Reborn, Jon Connington II)

And so, I have arrived at the plot development with regards to the Ragtag Band of Exiles. While I notice mostly speculation with regards to “friends in the Reach” (which is referred to by Peake more as a vague hope of potentials rather than a surety), including speculations of prominent members of House Hightower to be secret members of this Ragtag of Exiles, the speculation regarding Dorne’s recruitment seldom goes beyond, “When Doran learns of Quentyn’s death he’ll side with Aegon,” despite the fact that several times Jon Connington’s thoughts and words hammer on Dorne being the most crucial ally.

There is however a more imminent issue to be dealt with. Prince Doran is cautious and is unlikely to believe that either Jon Connington or Aegon are alive, that they are who they claim to be on their word alone. Even if Aegon and Jon Connington take all of the Stormlands by storm (pun intended), there is still the issue of verification. Learning of Quentyn’s death might help, but his emissary Arianne Martell still needs to be convinced, and she will be the one making the decision by sending the word “dragon” back to Sunspear.

tWoW spoiler warning! Skip to next paragraph if you do not wish to be spoiled.

Arianne’s two excerpt chapters of tWoW focus on her wondering what happened to Quentyn, but also pondering the problem how she could ever verify whether Aegon is indeed Elia’s son, or just a pretender. Combine this with the likelihood of secrets and disguises being let go of in rapid succession, when we solely have Arianne’s POV in the Stormlands while meeting the members of the Ragtag Band of Exiles

End of spoiler warning.

One of the possible secret identities must be someone who is quite capable of winning Arianne’s trust and convince her that Aegon is indeed a dragon (regardless whether it’s actually true or not). This limits the possible identities considerably. One of their members must be someone she knows personally, someone she can recognize upon meeting, someone whose story she knows, someone she can trust on their word alone, because she would regard this person as affiliated to her family’s inner circle. If there is such a person amongst the prominent characters of the Ragtag Band of Exiles, we could expect Arianne to send the raven to Sunspear with the one word, “dragon”, regardless of Arianne learning of Quentyn’s fate before or after.

And so, I have proposed a framework, context and important expected plot developments where roles, backstories and identities have to fit for the members of the Ragtag Band of (Returned) Exiles.

Ragtag Members

Notes

  1. These prejudices are actually used by readers to argue a certain character can never achieve this or that nor will have plot importance  – tsk, tsk, you should know better
  2. I proposed in the past on westeros.org that much of Varys’s plans, machinations and expressions of his personal beliefs match Machiavelli’s Il Principe that was adopted by the Tudors and Catherine de Medici in England and France.
  3. The War of the Roses occurred within a feudal system, but the Tudor dynasty emerged out of that war with the reconciliation marriage between Lancastrian Henry VII and Elizabeth of York. Their son Henry VIII ruled as an enlightened despot rewarding and elevating commoners to high stations, while ridding himself of long-time lines of noble blood, as did his daughter Queen Elizabeth I. Feudalism ended within one generation.