(Top illustration – Aurane “the Bastard of Driftmark” Water by Amino)
In Strange Sails I tackle the mystery and/or prediction on how the ragtag of exiles capture Storm’s End. A critical inspection on the castle, the cliff, the token host besieging and the two hundred inside leads to the conclusion that
- the capture of Storm’s End requires a naval ally.
- and that the Golden Company gaining Tarth for its territory after the Volantenese scattered them along the southern coastlines indicates the acquisition of naval allies.
The cogs and crew of Greenstone are the sole acknowledged ships to have been commandeered, but it can hardly be called a naval fleet. The possibilities become far more interesting once we recognize that Salladhor Saan and Aurane Waters – who abandoned their former known allies in Westeros – each have naval war and combat experience as well as ships. Various reports and in-world speculations position both these men at the Stepstones at the right time to meet with those of the Golden Company the Volantenese dropped ashore. And there is no reason to believe that if Salla sells his sails to the Golden Company that this excludes Aurane from being an ally. After all, both sailed together for Stannis in aCoK. So, they can both end up sailing for Aegon in tWoW and off-page in aDwD. This essay is meant to dig deeper into the case for Aurane Waters specifically having allied himself (unwttingly) with Aegon, Jon Connington and the Golden Company.
Obviously Aurane Waters and the stolen fleet of dromonds would have been useful to move the stranded Golden Company and their elephants from the Stepstones to Cape Wrath and, later, into Shipbreaker’s Bay or the Straight of Tarth. Once Aurane’s alleged whereabouts are pointed out around the time of Jon Connington’s landing – the Stepstones – it seems a sensible proposal for Aurane to have helped the partially stranded Golden Company and elephants to wherever they wish to go.
The case I will be arguing, however, is not that of an opportunistic pirate jumping on the chance, when it presents itself. Instead, like BryndenBFish, I argue that Aurane Waters was an agent of Varys in aFfC. His essay The Agents of Chaos, Part 3: The Pirate King summarizes Aurane’s role on Cersei’s small council well and sets up a pragmatical case for it. I will add to his proposal with further literary analysis as well as go even further into the past, to aCoK, and argue that Varys recruited Aurane shortly after his capture at the Blackwater, before he bent the knee to Joffrey. I will also propose a scenario how Taena Merryweather managed to manipulate Cersei into picking Aurane for her small council.
- Varys’ Need
- What’s in a Name?
- Aurane, The Golden Wind
- Pirate King or Lord Waters?
- A Small Council
- Aurane’s Personal Motives
- The Impulse of Cersei’s Admiration
- Conclusion
Varys’ Need
While I have pointed out Aegon’s need for a naval fleet, Varys also needed agents around Cersei.
Tyrion’s travels with team-exile show beyond any doubt that Varys and Illyrio have been working since the victory of Robert’s Rebellion (if not before) on getting Aegon on the throne. Varys built and managed a spy network for two decades. Illyrio bribed and paid politicians and rulers of Free Cities. They drafted contracts with the Golden Company over a decade ago and recruited and funded various people to maintain a floating private tutoring school for Aegon. And they used agents to do their bidding, such as Jorah Mormont in aGoT.
After Varys manipulated Robert into promising a reward to anyone who would assassinate the pregnant Danaerys, his co-conspiritor Illyrio warned Jorah of Robert’s intention so that he could inform Drogo of this. It was an elaborate scheme to motivate Drogo into crossing the Narrow Sea and Dany’s death was the potential collateral damage they were willing to risk. They may even have wanted the assassination to succeed to rid themselves of a rival to Aegon, namely Dany’s unborn child. After all, they would have wanted Drogo ultimately to fight and die for their candidate Aegon, not Drogo’s child. And this double-sided manipulation could have been succesful if not for Drogo’s wound and him smearing bacteria filled mud on his chest near his heart.
Ideally, Varys would have remained a manipulating force on the small council until Aegon arrives at the gates of King’s Landing. But Tywin’s murder and Jaime knowing of Varys’ involvement to free Tyrion forced him to go into hiding, just as Aegon and the Golden Company are about to move to Volantis to sail for Westeros. Varys and Illyrio did not work this dilligently, albeit with great flexibility, for close to twenty years to then leave it solely to chance in the last stretch. They would get agents close to the one wielding power. And it is even reasonable to suspect that Varys would have prepared for such a contingency plan well in advance. Especially since Robert’s death, there was an increasing risk that any of the Lannister hands or regents might dismiss him or mean him lethal harm. Remember that Varys increasingly felt it was impossible to keep juggling hundred balls in the air when Ned Stark still lived and was Hand, that this was “no longer a game for two players, if ever it was.”
Varys as Rugen to Illyrio: “Even the finest of jugglers cannot keep a hundred balls in the air forever.” (aGoT, Arya III)
I find it a big ask to believe that Varys would leave either regent or Hand to their own devices in the final stretch before Aegon’s homecoming. Nor am I the only person suspecting at least one character being an agent operating for Varys in aFfC.
Taena Merryweather
One of the more apparent agents during Cersei’s reign in aFfC in the minds of many readers is Taena Merryweather, though they may disagree who she is working for or even regard her a double agent. In 2014 BryndenBFish built a strong case for Taena in his Agents of Chaos (Part 1): The Myrish Femme Fatale. One argument of his confirms she is in contact with Varys: her revealing to Cersei that Olenna Tyrell has a chest of Gardener coins to con unsuspecting merchants. When Jaimeinquires with Cersei what she knows about Taena and what sort of things Taena tells her, she replies
“Did you know that the Queen of Thorns keeps a chest of coins in her wheelhouse? Old gold from before the Conquest. Should any tradesman be so unwise as to name a price in golden coins, she pays him with hands from Highgarden, each half the weight of one of our dragons. What merchant would dare complain of being cheated by Mace Tyrell’s lady mother?” (aFfC, Jaime II)
Taena’s reveal strengthens Cersei’s paranoia about the Tyrells’ involvement in Tyrion’s escape and Tywin’s murder, because Qyburn discovered exactly such a coin in Rugen’s cell.
“I know all this.” Jaime had examined Rugen’s cell, and Ser Addam’s gold cloaks had examined it again.
“Aye, Your Grace,” said Qyburn, “but did you know that under that stinking chamber pot was a loose stone, which opened on a small hollow? The sort of place where a man might hide valuables that he did not wish to be discovered?”
“Valuables?” This was new. “Coin, you mean?” She had suspected all along that Tyrion had somehow bought this gaoler.
“Beyond a doubt. To be sure, the hole was empty when I found it. No doubt Rugen took his ill-gotten treasure with him when he fled. But as I crouched over the hole with my torch, I saw something glitter, so I scratched in the dirt until I dug it out.” Qyburn opened his palm. “A gold coin.”
Gold, yes, but the moment Cersei took it she could tell that it was wrong. Too small, she thought, too thin. The coin was old and worn. On one side was a king’s face in profile, on the other side the imprint of a hand. “This is no dragon,” she said.
“No,” Qyburn agreed. “It dates from before the Conquest, Your Grace. The king is Garth the Twelfth, and the hand is the sigil of House Gardener.” (AFFC, Cersei II)
Though Jaime and gold cloaks had examined Rugen’s cell, it is implied that Qyburn was the sole person to discover the loose stone, because Cersei responds to Qyburn’s description of Rugen’s cell as “I know all this”. This then would absolutely rule out the gold cloaks from taking the content of the hollow for themselves or talking about it. As BryndenBFish pointed out, only Varys (who is Rugen), Qyburn and Cersei know about the coin, when Taena conveniently links Olenna to the coin. We can rule out Qyburn having tipped off Taena, since Cersei commanded him to not mention it to anyone else.
“You will not speak of this with anyone,” she commanded.
“Your Grace may trust in my discretion. Any man who rides with a sellsword company learns to hold his tongue, else he does not keep it long.” (AFFC, Cersei II)
We can rely on Qyburn to have kept this secret, since he did not betray Roose’s plans to Jaime either when he tended to Jaime at Harrenhal. So, if Taena mentioned Olenna’s cheap deception with the Gardener gold because she knew about the coin Qyburn found and gave to Cersei, then only Varys could have been her source on the latter.
It is also noteworthy that symbolically the Merryweathers fit the “exile team” concept. Orton Merryweather’s grandfather Owen Merryweather was once the Mad King’s Hand and, like Jon Connington, stripped of his lands and sent into exile by Aerys II for his failure to contain Robert’s Rebellion. Orton joined his grandfather to Essos, and eventually wed Taena of Myr. Orton managed to persuade Robert Baratheon to return the seat Longtable back to House Merryweather.
His sister laughed. “Not you. Have no fear on that count. Perhaps Taena’s husband. His grandfather was Hand under Aerys.”
The horn-of-plenty Hand. Jaime remembered Owen Merryweather well enough; an amiable man, but ineffectual. “As I recall, he did so well that Aerys exiled him and seized his lands.”
“Robert gave them back. Some, at least. Taena would be pleased if Orton could recover the rest.” (aFfC, Jaime II)
Taena’s son was born at Longtable and six in 300 AC. Taena is also said to be a decade younger than Cersei. This means Taena was born roughly in 276 AC and birthed her first and only child at 17 in 294 AC. The youngest marriage age that George allows for is 12. But Taena is not a noble’s daughter who is wed at first flowering for her title or land and they wed before Orton petitioned with Robert successfully for his own return to rule Longtable. It seems likeliest that Orton got his ancestral land back after the Greyjoy rebellion somewhere between 291-293 AC.
Readers also argue that when Laswell Peake of the Golden Company refers to friends in the Reach this implies House Merryweather, which has been staunchly loyal to House Targaryen:
- They marched alongside of House Peake to join Maegor the Cruel’s army against Aegon the Uncrowned,
- During the onset of the Dance, Lord Merryweather remained loyal to Rhaenyra, was imprisoned and when brought before the King’s Justice still refused to bend the knee to Aegon II. He was beheaded for this. His wife would only yielded the castle to Lord Ormund Hightower after a siege, and still sent levies to join the Blacks at Tumbleton.
By itself, the friends in the Reach theoretically could by anybody, but notice what Taena has to say about the friends she has across the water!
It was Lady Merryweather who truly pleased her. “Your Grace,” that one said, in her sultry Myrish tones, “I have sent word to my friends across the narrow sea, asking them to seize the Imp at once should he show his ugly face in the Free Cities.”
“Do you have many friends across the water?”
“In Myr, many. In Lys as well, and Tyrosh. Men of power.” (aFfC, Cersei II)
When Taena claims to have many friends in Myr, the news of the Golden Company breaking its contract with Myr has not yet reached King’s Landing. They were still believed to be in Myr. 10000 friends would be many, right? Illyrio and Aegon and those they sponsored are men of power. If so, then Taena’s advice for her many friends to seize the Imp is a witty allusion to Illyrio already having Tyrion in his possession to gift him to Jon Connington. And take note of the fact, that apart from this one time reference to her many friends across the water, Taena fails to ever inform Cersei of any news from Essos about Tyrion, Myr, the Golden Company, … Taena Merryweather’s reports (real and fake) are restriced to court gossip on Margaery and her cousins.
Eventually, Taena’s flight from King’s Landing with her husband after Cersei’s arrest as well as her excuses to stay away raises suspicion for most readers as her being someone’s agent.
“Merryweather has resigned his seat on the council and fled back to Longtable with his wife, who was the first to bring us news of the . . . accusations . . . against Your Grace.” (aFfC, Cersei X)
At the very least, they honor the idiom meaning of their name by proving they are fair-weather friends, even though Sansa is not to call Taena “merry“.
Under the Radar
Aurane Waters is rarely suspected of being an agent though. Most readers assume he either grifted a fleet of warships for himself from Cersei, or fled with the fleet after Cersei’s arrest in fear for his life for having been part of her council. This impression relies on a list of assumptions and beliefs that are questionable.
For example, it may seem over the top that Varys would risk having two agents work alongside one another. But consider how in aCoK and aSoS, Littlefinger has several agents operating inside the Red Keep all at once – Ser Dontos, the Kettleblack brothers and Lothor Brune. Littlefinger and Varys are not that different from one another in how they operate, except that Varys uses secrets and the desire for home and family as stick and carrot where Littlefinger uses coin and briberies. So, if say Taena does work for Varys in aFfC, this is not a reason to exclude someone else at the Red Keep from being an agent alongside her. It would just mean the various agents have other goals to achieve and thus operate in different settings. Nor are they necessarily aware of one another.
Another mistake is the tendency to see Varys and Illyrio have two strictly dvided roles: Varys is the spy, recruiter and manipulator, while Illyrio is the banker merchant who gets to provide financial support, logistics and gifts material aid. So, we are predisposed to expect Illyrio to acquire, build or buy a fleet of warships, not Varys. Nevertheless, Illyrio is not so rich to be able to fund such a thing: even Cersei has to halt payments of the crown’s loan to the Faith and the Iron Bank in order to build ten dromonds.
Even if Illyrio had the funds to build a war fleet, he could not build one in Pentos without provoking Braavos. The Secret City does not allow entire Pentos more than twenty warships.
A further provision of the peace accords between Braavos and Pentos limits the Pentoshi to no more than twenty warships and prohibits them from hiring sellswords, entering into contracts with free companies, or maintaining any army beyond the city watch. (tWoIaF – The Free Cities: Pentos)
Pentos is also prohibited from hiring sellswords or draft contracts with free companies. That broad prohibition against militaristic expansion on Pentos by Braavos can explain many if not most of Illyrio’s tactics in acquiring military support. As a magister of Pentos, Illyrio has to do it with the utmost secrecy. Braavos would descend upon Pentos with their war fleet if Illyrio had a personal deal with Khal Drogo to hand him 50 000 Dothraki. Instead he has Viserys make a deal with Drogo, with Dany as prized bride for it. Illyrio could not have signed a contract with the Golden Company for gold. He can only do that for secret blood to a young man to whom he is not related (officially), and all in the utmost secrecy.
All of this explains why Illyrio paid the Volantenese sails to do no more than transport the Golden Company to Westeros. Varys would have been expected to secure a naval solution for Aegon from his side of the Narrow Sea. Admittedly, a war fleet may not have been high on the priority list, initially. At the start of the series, the master of ships Stannis Baratheon has retreated to Dragonstone, while a large contingent of Robert’s fleet is in King’s Landing. This division between the two Baratheon brothers would have been sufficient. Only after the Battle of the Blackwater, Stannis has a superior sea force, which is exactly the moment that Aurane who grew up at Driftmark falls prisoner to the Crown. So what are the possible clues that indicate that Aurane is an agent for Varys and Aegon?
What’s in a Name?
Aurane, The Golden Wind
Aurane’s first name is literary a golden nugget of a tip-off. The French name Aurane (a variant of Auriane), which would be pronounced as Or-Anne, means golden wind. The prefix or- is the French word for gold. The Latin root aurum means golden or in gold. But there is also the Greek and Latin aura, which means wind, and in Middle English aura was used to indicate a gentle breeze. Is that another way of saying fair weather? The name Aurane then also is a wordplay in the same way as the name Merryweather and implies he, like Taena, is another fair weather friend.
A character called golden wind fits the concept of a sailor as well as the theme of the Golden Company. I go into the Golden Company (prowess and history) more in depth in House Blackfyre. The sellsword company was for hire for gold for decades, but broke its sellsword contract for the very first time in 300 AC, for a blood contract instead, made between Illyrio and Myles Toyne five years after Robert’s Rebellion, after Varys and Illyrio informed Blackheart and Jon Connington that Rhaegar’s son Aegon had survived. Aurane’s golden name makes him suitable company (pun intended), and his blood of Driftmark, even bastard blood, could seek glory in allying with a prince of the (alleged) Targaryen bloodline.
Pirate King or Lord Waters?
When Arianne visits Ghost Hill to take a ship to Cape Wrath, Nymella and Valena Toland mention the appearance of a new pirate king at the Stepstones.
“[…] A new pirate king has set up on Torturer’s Deep. The Lord of the Waters, he styles himself. This one has real warships, three-deckers, monstrous large. […]” (tWoW, Arianne I)
Though it has not yet been confirmed, most readers believe this Lord of the Waters to be Aurane Waters, the bastard of Driftmark, because of the following arguments:
- He is the sole man known to have sailed off with monstrous dromonds under his personal command.
- Pycelle believed Aurane sailed for the Stepstones with the ambition to be a pirate,
- The style Lord implies a Westerosi.
- The title for the Lord Velaryon of Driftmark is Lord of the Tides. The pirate’s title is analogues to it, except it uses a wordplay with his bastard name Waters.
This connection is obvious, and so some readers will suspect a red herring. But if this novel “pirate” is not Aurane Waters, then who else could he be? The chance that someone else managed to get funding to build a fleet of three-decker warships is zero. The title and location just seals it.
So, I do think that The Lord of the Waters and Aurane Waters are one and the same. But I also agree the claim is a red herring, not about the man’s identity, but that he is a pirate king. Sure, Aurane’s actions and surface behaviour in aFfC seem to portray him as a greedy short-sighted opportunist, out for his own financial enrichment: he has the crown pay for brand new huge warships and then sails off with them as the city is in disarray. But much of that is based on Cersei’s projection of her own superficial affect, of her own shallow desires. Cersei’s perception of other people and their motives is subpar.
For example, consider the self-chosen style Lord, instead of King or Prince and this without shying away from bastard birth status. Compare this to Prince Daemon Targaryen who called himself King of the Stepstones and wore a crown, or sellsail Salladhor Saan who styled himself as Prince of the Narrow Sea. In fact, Davos opines that a rich pirate usually gets the style prince.
The Lyseni was a smuggler himself, as well as a trader, a banker, a notorious pirate, and the self-styled Prince of the Narrow Sea. When a pirate grows rich enough, they make him a prince. (aCoK, Davos I)
So, the style that presumably Aurane Waters chose for himself, Lord of the Waters, is more humble than his surface characterization in aFfC suggests, or even in comparison to the portrayal of other past pirates and exiles on the Stepstones. It are other people who refer to him as a pirate king, and they only do so based on hearsay.
Now, I do not mean to say that Aurane is a “humble man” per se or without personal ambition. But for all his seeming claim of being able to lord over all the waters, not just Blackwater Bay, the Stepstones or even the Narrow Sea, he does not crown himself. Instead he chooses a feudal style of a nobleman and master who is still bound to a king or queen. That queen is not Cersei Lannister, and that king is not named Baratheon (Tommen or Stannis).
A Small Council
The names and styles are hardly evidence that Aurane Waters was recruited prior to meeting the Golden Company on the Stepstones off page during aDwD. They just are symbolical hints to whom he may align. But one of Aurane Waters’ earliest dialogue is. Though mentioned in aCoK, Aurane has no speaking part until Cersei’s small council meeting in aFfC, Cersei IV. By then he is already her Admiral. First he makes a witty remark how the removal of a head implies that person is dead (about Gregor Clegane), then a little later wishes to discuss the making of a royal fleet of warships, before he eventually brings up the Golden Company.
“Whilst we await Lord Walder’s death, there is another matter,” said Aurane Waters. “The Golden Company has broken its contract with Myr. Around the docks I’ve heard men say that Lord Stannis has hired them and is bringing them across the sea.” (aFfC, Cersei IV)
The clue
Admittedly, you would only pick up on it as a clue during a reread of aFfC, as it requires information from aDwD. When we discuss movements, plans and schemes occurring behind the page scenes in either aFfC or aDwD, we must remember that both books share a timespan of events occurring in different geographical locations, rather than passing of time alone. So, I will sketch the events of various POVs ocurring in relation to the moment of this council meeting.
- Tyrion journeys through south Andalos with lllyrio Mopatis.
- Meanwhile, in Dorne, Doran Martell had the Sand Snakes arrested and wrote a letter to King’s Landing to ask for the Mountain’s skull to quiet his people angered over Oberyn Martell’s death.
- Arianne already abducted Myrcella, since Arys only just learned of Tywin’s death around The Queenmaker‘s time.
- Mace Tyrell is besieging Storm’s End, Paxter Redwyne’s fleet has sailed to the Crownlands through the Straits of Tarth and Jaime is still in King’s Landing.
- Brienne meets up with Randyl Tarly in Maidenpool (since the sparrow dwarf that Brienne met in Duskendale is presented as a prize to Cersei right before she leaves to join the small council).
- Samwell is sailing for Braavos. Jon Snow sent his letter, his paper shield, to King Tommen. Slynt is still alive (barely) and Stannis is at the Wall planning with Magnar and “Rattleshirt”.
- Manderly has taken Davos captive and awaits the Iron Throne’s response on what to do with him.
The news of the Golden Company breaking its contract with Myr is heavily talked off at various harbors. Arianne discusses the news about the breaking of the contract with Myr with Ser Arys in The Soiled Knight. People of Westeros and Essos alike speculate on the Golden Company’s motives: such as Tyrosh or Lys bribing them. So, when Aurane claims this to be the gossip of the docks of King’s Landing, this appears credible. Cersei, however, instantly dismisses Aurane’s gossip.
“Lord Qyburn has spoken to the crew of that Myrish galley in the bay. They claim the Golden Company is making for Volantis. If they mean to cross to Westeros, they are marching in the wrong direction.” (aFfC, Cersei IV)
There is a Myrish galley at anchor in the bay that would be regarded as the most reliable source for information, not just by Qyburn or Cersei, but also pretty much anyone working in and around the harbor. Some of the crew no doubt frequent bars and brothels or traded. So, it would be very weird that the alleged harbor gossip is about Stannis hiring the Golden Company as Aurane claims, instead of them marching for Volantis. The juxtaposition of what should be the gossip around the docks instead of what Aurane claims it to be is why we ought to question Aurane’s source.
aDwD confirms Cersei’s claim that the Golden Company marches for Volantis, in Tyrion II.
“The Golden Company marches toward Volantis as we speak, there to await the coming of our queen out of the east.”
Beneath the gold, the bitter steel. “I had heard the Golden Company was under contract with one of the Free Cities.”
“Myr.” Illyrio smirked. “Contracts can be broken.” (aDwD, Tyrion II)
Tyrion journeys the southern region of Andalos in a litter with Illyrio around the same time that Cersei has her small council meeting in King’s Landing. But Illyrio is not relaying gossip. He is involved, informed, and responsible for the Golden Company’s marching orders – they are supposed to join up with Aegon, Dany and her Unsullied in Volantis. Once Illyrio learned that Dany hatched dragons from the eggs he gifted her, he attempted to get her back to Pentos on the cogs he sent to Qarth with Selmy Barristan and Belwas. Instead, Dany sailed for Slaver’s Bay to get herself an army of Unsullied. By the time Illyrio learned of Dany conquering Slaver’s Bay, he assumed that she would continue to attack cities to enlarge her army of freed slaves, either marching overland or sail by sea to Volantis.
“This dragon queen who wears her name is a true Targaryen. When I sent ships to bring her home, she turned toward Slaver’s Bay. In a short span of days she conquered Astapor, made Yunkai bend the knee, and sacked Meereen. Mantarys will be next, if she marches west along the old Valyrian roads. If she comes by sea, well … her fleet must take on food and water at Volantis.”[…] “Many and more will perish, but those who survive will be stronger by the time they reach Volantis … where they shall find you and Griff awaiting them, with fresh forces and sufficient ships to carry them all across the sea to Westeros.” (aDwD, Tyrion II)
Aegon, Tyrion and the Golden Company journey to Volantis, because they all expect Dany to show up there.
In other words, around the time of Cersei’s council meeting, Illyrio (and Varys) expected and planned for Aegon and the Golden Company to journey to Westeros from Volantis. And Varys’ task would have been to prepare for Aegon’s and Dany’s coming, to facilitate their invasion. So, even if Aurane points incorrectly to Stannis, it is curious he mentions a tale of the Golden Company coming to Westeros when this plan is only known to Illyrio, Tyrion, Jon Connington, Harry Strickland and presumably Varys.
Intrestingly enough, once the Golden Company sailed off for Westeros (instead of Meereen where Dany had decided to stay), Ser Jorah Mormont overheared the following gossip at the Merchant’s House in Volantis:
“Last night the talk here was all of Westeros. Some exiled lord has hired the Golden Company to win back his lands for him. Half the captains in Volantis are racing upriver to Volon Therys to offer him their ships.” (aDwD, Tyrion VII)
“Some exiled lord”… The gossip at the docks of Volantis is eerily similar to the alleged gossip that Aurane “overheard” months earlier. Of course, the exiled lord is Jon Connington and ultimately Aegon, not Stannis. But certain factions in Westeros would refer to Stannis as an exiled lord within the range of King’s Landing ears. At the very least, the Volantis gossip is a near twin to Aurane’s predicton that the Golden Company would journey to Westeros to battle Cersei for an exile and claimant of the Iron Throne.
Theoretically there are three possible ways how Aurane came this close to the truth:
- A lucky guess
- Accidental overhearing
- An informed agent
As long as we think of this in a real world sense all three ways are equally possible without any further confirmation. But we are not just reading a retelling of events. George is an adept author who uses literary tricks and devices. And each of the above three would use or serve a different literary device. The text will show that the literary set up for the first and second is absent, but amply available for the third option, within the very chapter of the small council.
A lucky guess?
To make a wrong guess in the present, but which turns out to be correct (or close enough) is a literary device of ironic foreshadowing that George does use at times. But those tend to stand out to the reader upon first read. For example he puts it in a private conversation between two beloved characters. The moment is memorable enough that by the time the foreshadowing does occur it will be at the top of your mind again, involving characters or groups the reader is familiar with.
A small council meeting where several people have varying dialogues on a wide spread of topics is not an impossible setting for such a literary device, but a difficult one. The reader requires
- a broad understanding of the events taking place that most on the council do not.
- a familiarity with the various council members, so that the reader remembers who said what.
Cersei’s small council in this chapter is no such setting. Merryweather is a new character with dialogue, Aurane gets his first dialogue and we are only starting to get a better grasp on Qyburn. Jaime is not present. (and just had a private dialogue with Cersei in his own chapter just preceding Cersei IV). Only Cersei and Pycelle are familiar to the reader as characters, but we are not sympathetic to them. And while the reader has some insight on what is happening with the topics such as the Ironborn, Stannis and of course Jon Snow, they are not familiar with the Golden Company. Its name and existence is introduced in aFfC, in Arys Oakheart’s sole POV chapter The Soiled Knight through Arianne mentioning it. Cersei’s small council is the second chapter where they are mentioned. Unknown characters debating an unknown subject in a multi-character dialogue is not a setting for ironic foreshadowing.
Aurane’s comment about the Golden Company has a link to literary irony, but that ironic moment occurs in tWoW, Theon I, when Stannis commands Justin Massey to go to Braavos and hire 20 000 sellswords including preferably the Golden Company.
Stannis to Justin Massey: “[…] The Iron Bank has opened its coffers to me. You will collect their coin and hire ships and sellswords. A company of good repute, if you can find one. The Golden Company would be my first choice, if they are not already under contract. Seek for them in the Disputed Lands, if need be. But first hire as many swords as you can find in Braavos, and send them to me by way of Eastwatch. Archers as well, we need more bows.” (tWoW, Theon I)
It is a moment of tragic irony. By then the reader is quite familiar with the Golden Company, its plans and whereabouts. They are already in Westeros fighting for a rival claimant, Aegon Targaryen, rushing towards Storm’s End, the castle that Stannis held to the brink of starvation during Robert’s Rebellion while Mace Tyrell besieged it. That long ago siege was lifted by Ned Stark, lord of Winterfell, after he had an argument with Robert Baratheon over the alleged murder of baby Aegon Targaryen. And now Stannis desires the Golden Company to be hired while he and his army are starving miles away from Winterfell to take it back for Ned’s daughter. More, according to the Pink Letter that Jon Snow received in his last chapter of aDwD, Stannis allegedly is already dead. Not to mention that Mace Tyrell is besieging Storm’s End again.
By tWoW, Theon I the first-time reader may half remember that someone on Cersei’s council once claimed to have heard that Stannis had hired them. We would forgive the reader for not remembering who had mentioned it: “Cersei? Pycelle? Qyburn maybe?” They’d have to look it up, or more likely, smile about Aurane’s comment upon reread.
So, Aurane’s comment is one of the steps leading to tragic irony of Stannis, but it is not the sole one. Arianne’s introduction of the subject of the Golden Company to Arys Oakheart in aFfC, The Soiled Knight, is the most glaring one.
“No,” [Arianne] said. “I would believe it of any of the other free companies, yes. Most of them would change sides for half a groat. The Golden Company is different. A brotherhood of exiles and the sons of exiles, united by the dream of Bittersteel. It’s home they want, as much as gold. Lord Yronwood knows that as well as I do. His forebears rode with Bittersteel during three of the Blackfyre Rebellions.” She took Ser Arys by the hand, and wove her fingers through his own. “Have you ever seen the arms of House Toland of Ghost Hill?”
He had to think a moment. “A dragon eating its own tail?”
“The dragon is time. It has no beginning and no ending, so all things come round again. […]” (aFfC, The Soiled Knight)
My main conclusion here is that Aurane’s remark about the Golden Company coming to Westeros and being hired by Stannis is meant to be ironic upon reread, not first read. And a dialogue or claim that is ironic upon reread does not require to be a lucky guess as literary device.
Put this potential lucky guess against the knowledge that Aurane also steered the council into agreeing to have ten dromonds built for a new fleet. Both subjects were brought up in his first ever dialogue in the same meeting, and he ends up in the right place, at the right time with the right ships. Once you weigh this against “did Aurane make two lucky guesses?” then the option that Aurane had it straight from Varys’ mouth seems far more sensible.
Accidental hearing?
If indeed Aurane’s source was Varys then, we have to consider, in theory, whether he accidentally overheard Varys in disguise talking to one of Illyrio’s merchant captains at the docks. Varys’ disguises are good enough that they fool people unless they are directly accosted by Varys. In that way, Aurane may not even have known his source was Varys and indeed thinks of them as “men around the docks”.
Unintended discovery of crucial information between the plotters Varys and Illyrio has been featured in aGoT: when Arya overhears them as they walk the tunnels beneath the Red Keep. They discuss Dany’s pregnancy and its impact on Khal Drogo. They reference the death of a prior Hand as a solution to deal with Ned Stark having found the bastard. And they mention sorcery and wizardry. Arya then warns her father: that a wizard discussed killing him, and that the princess was pregnant. As a child she does not fully grasp metaphors, lacks background knowledge but also adds her own inference instead of reporting objectively. She assumes the bastard means Jon. She does not know Gendry or Dany exist. And nobody knows that Varys was not involved in the death of Jon Arryn or that he managed to recruit Jon Connington over a decade ago.
Adults who are not trained in objective reporting may infer the wrong identity on vague referrals when eavesdropping as well. If the men Aurane overheard said something along the lines of how the Golden Company “would set sail for Westeros soon to fight for their exiled lord,” Aurane would have understandably jumped to the wrong conclusion that they implied Stannis.
The main issue with “accidental hearing” is that in literature this type of sourcing requires the reader to witness Aurane overhearing Varys. Take Arya’s adventure as an example. Arya was unable to tell her father that her source was Varys (and not a wizard), because she did not yet know him or recognize him. This made it easy for Ned Stark to dismiss it. Meanwhile the reader knows Arya’s source to be genuine, pleading in thought with Ned to believe her.
The reader is unable to verify Aurane’s source, however, since we do not witness it. As a result, Cersei comes across as sensible to dismiss Aurane’s gossip from the docks, especially since she can cite Qyburn’s inquiry with the Myrish captain at anchor in the bay. Meanwhile, to the reader Aurane comes across as an unrealible source who either tries to manipulate Cersei by namedropping Stannis or because he is content with whatever unverified gossip he picks up from “uninformed” men at the docks over a fellow “informed” captain. In other words, George does not reveal Aurane’s source to the reader, because he wants us to dismiss the claim as well as Aurane’s character. I smell a red herring. Therefore “accidental hearing” does not work as an explanation, because it is not written for such a literary use.
Informed Agent
The realisation that George wants us to dismiss Aurane’s reliability as a source (just like Cersei did) is quite telling all in itself, especially, since Aurane turned out be correct about the Golden Company’s intentions. This brings me to the last option: Aurane was an agent of Varys, informed about the Golden Company’s plans and coached by Varys to use half truths and other news of Essos so that Cersei, Qyburn and Pycelle would perceive Aurane as harmless after this small council meeting. And for this option we do have literary tricks that George deploys within the very same chapter of this meeting of the small council.
George puts Varys on the reader’s mind, via Cersei:
- right at the onset of the meeting,
- and during Aurane’s fleet request after a comment about Ironborn.
Both times, she reviews his usefulness as a living, breathing Wikipedia, in response to certain characters’ display of knowledge (or lack of it). Her conclusions about Varys end up contradicting one another. This is how George invites the reader to examine Varys’ manner of reporting at small councils themselves and to compare it with Qyburn and the other members on the small council. It becomes a literary riddle – “Who on this council reports the most like Varys”? Such riddles are ideal to tease and guide readers during a reread, rather than a first read, which works with how Aurane’s info on the Golden Company can only be understood to be a potential clue.
In the first instance, Qyburn and her walk together to the small council, while the bells of the Great Sept clang in mourning for the assassinated High Septon. The bells vex her, but these are unspoken thoughts. When Qyburn assures her that the bells will stop ringing at sunset, she asks him how he knows. He replies with a platitude, and Cersei concludes that Qyburn will serve as well as Varys as her master of whisperers.
The pealing of the bells was louder in the yard. He was only a High Septon. How long must we endure this? The ringing was more melodious than the Mountain’s screams had been, but . . . Qyburn seemed to sense what she was thinking. “The bells will stop at sunset, Your Grace.”
“That will be a great relief. How can you know?”
“Knowing is the nature of my service.”
Varys had all of us believing he was irreplaceable. What fools we were. Once the queen let it become known that Qyburn had taken the eunuch’s place, the usual vermin had wasted no time in making themselves known to him, to trade their whispers for a few coins. It was the silver all along, not the Spider. Qyburn will serve us just as well. (aFfC, Cersei IV)
Cersei is impressed by two abilities that Qyburn displays in this instance:
- He senses her irritability at the bells.
- He knows when the mourning bells will stop ringing.
Neither are particularly examples of masterfulness. While Cersei can be stoic (when she wishes to be so), she is not particularly known for masking her irritation. It was easy for Qyburn to realize what bothered her. And how long the Faith would publically mourn the death of a High Septon is not some top secret you require a spy network for. It is just typical of Cersei to project her own disinterest for anything beyond what is immediately in front of her onto others.
Nothing in the above situation warrants a master of whisperer, let alone Varys paying coin to his spies. Varys relied on more than waving silver for whispers from informants. He used and trained children who can crawl in small spaces, to read various langauges, etc. Cersei’s thought also imply how Varys managed to make it appear like sorcery.
Catelyn considers wizardry for a moment, when Varys asks her to see the dagger.
[Varys] eased himself down into a seat and put his hands together. “I wonder if we might trouble you to show us the dagger?” Catelyn Stark stared at the eunuch in stunned disbelief. He was a spider, she thought wildly, an enchanter or worse. He knew things no one could possibly know, unless … (aGoT, Catelyn IV)
Note too that when Catelyn asks Varys how he could know what Ser Rodrik and Ser Aron Santagar discussed, he (like Qyburn) answers that knowing things is the nature of his service.
“How could you know all that?”
“The whisperings of little birds,” Varys said, smiling. “I know things, sweet lady. That is the nature of my service.” (aGoT, Catelyn IV)
The second time that Cersei thinks of Varys is after Aurane wishes to discuss adding back to their strength at sea.
“Might we discuss the fleet?” asked Aurane Waters. “Fewer than a dozen of our ships survived the inferno on the Blackwater. We must needs restore our strength at sea.”
Merryweather nodded. “Strength at sea is most essential. Could we make use of the ironmen?” asked Orton Merryweather. “The enemy of our enemy? What would the Seastone Chair want of us as the price of an alliance?” (aFfC, Cersei IV)
Lord Orton Merryweather and Ser Harys Swyft contemplate a potential alliance with the Ironborn, with nobody answering Swyft’s question whether Balon Greyjoy still has any brothers and how many there could be.
“Balon Greyjoy is dead, I had heard,” said Ser Harys Swyft. “Do we know who rules the isles now? Did Lord Balon have a son?”
“Leo?” coughed Lord Gyles. “Theo?”
“Theon Greyjoy was raised at Winterfell, a ward of Eddard Stark,” Qyburn said. “He is not like to be a friend of ours.”
“I had heard he was slain,” said Merryweather.
“Was there only one son?” Ser Harys Swyft tugged upon his chin beard. “Brothers. There were brothers. Were there not?”
Varys would have known, Cersei thought with irritation. (aFfC, Cersei IV)
Yes, Varys would have known that Balon Greyjoy had three brothers, one son and a daughter as well as their whereabouts. But most council members there should know of Balon’s brothers. They just choose not to indulge Merryweather and Swyft in a senseless proposal of ripping the North in half, especially when House Bolton needs to beat the Ironborn to rally the northerners behind him.
This particular conversation reads as ironic contrast to the chapters we have been reading about the Kingsmoot at the Iron Islands. And we could suspect, that if Varys was still part of the small council, he might have had some spy reports how one Euron Greyjoy was elected as new ruler of the ironborn in a kingsmoot. But it is also important to pause and second guess whether these small council members should not know better.
Orton Merryweather is the sole man with a legitimate excuse to know little about the Greyjoys: he lived in exile for most of his life in Essos together with his grandfather, and likely did not return to Westeros until after the Greyjoy rebellion. That is a significant background story to determine what several small council members should know, such as Pycelle, Ser Harys Swyft and Aurane.
During the Greyjoy Rebellion, Victarion and Euron Greyjoy led the Iron Fleet and burned the Lannister fleet at Lannisport. Later, Stannis Baratheon led Victarion into a trap and smashed the Iron Fleet, including Aeron “Damphair” Greyjoy’s ship. This was before Aeron was a priest of the Drowned God. He ended up captured and a prisoner at Casterly Rock for the remainder of that conflict.
In the end the Golden Storm went down off Fair Isle during Balon’s first rebellion, cut in half by a towering war galley called Fury when Stannis Baratheon caught Victarion in his trap and smashed the Iron Fleet. Yet the god was not done with Aeron, and carried him to shore. Some fishermen took him captive and marched him down to Lannisport in chains, and he spent the rest of the war in the bowels of Casterly Rock, proving that krakens can piss farther and longer than lions, boars, or chickens. (aFfC, The Prophet)
As Tywin’s fan and as a maester, Pycelle should know and remember both the burning of the Lannister fleet and Aeron’s imprisonment at Casterly Rock. He was also reinstalled to Tywin’s small council in aSoS, and present when Victarion’s and Asha’s whereabouts in the North were discussed. We can infer that Pycelle likely refrains from answering Swyft’s question about the brothers, because he does not wish to indulge Harys Swyft and Orton Merryweather any further in their nonsense. Anyone who has ever been in a meeting that got sidetracked by nonsensical fact chasing over aspects that are irrelevant to the subject will know that silence can be the best remedy. We as readers can determine that Pycelle would refrain from indulging this line of questioning, because he points out how the Ironborn want the north, while Cersei already promised it to Roose Bolton.
“They want the north,” Grand Maester Pycelle said, “which our queen’s noble father promised to House Bolton.” (aFfC, Cersei IV)
As father-in-law of Kevan Lannister, Ser Harys Swyft should know better too. Notice how Aeron’s memory of his captivity at the Rock includes some pissing contest between krakens and chickens. Aeron is not thinking about animals here, but sigils, and Swyft’s sigil is a blue “chicken”. Swyft does vaguely remember there were brothers but otherwise does not seem the brightest pencil in the drawer. So, we can conclude he is trying but indeed an ignorant character.
Qyburn seems to be knowledgeable about Balon’s son, Theon and how he was a ward of House Stark. But his suggestion that Theon would not want to ally with the Iron Throne against House Stark is odd oncec we pause to think of it. Did Qyburn forget Theon took Winterfell and as far as Westeros knows killed Bran and Rickon Stark? Is it not Theon who has been accused of burning down Winterfell? He was a Bloody Mummer operating out of Harrenhal, including when Roose Bolton commanded it. In fact, he tended the ravens and messages at Harrenhal, after Roose had maester Tothmure beheaded. It cannot be doubted that Qyburn knows Theon betrayed the Starks and perhaps even that Theon was captured by Ramsay. This means that Qyburn deliberately misrepresents Theon’s loyalties to House Stark. Maybe he is looking out for Roose Bolton, but this shows how Qyburn can use a certain fact and not disclose others to create the false impression, potentially serving two masters.
Of note here is that this whole dialogue that leads to Cersei lamenting Varys’ absence kicks off with Aurane bringing up the subject of a need to restore the fleet and that it is Aurane who concludes it with the order of ten dromonds.
Varys would have known, Cersei thought with irritation. “I do not propose to climb in bed with that sorry pack of squids. Their turn will come, once we have dealt with Stannis. What we require is our own fleet.”
“I propose we build new dromonds,” said Aurane Waters. “Ten, to start with.” (aFfC, Cersei IV)
We could regard Aurane as the framework or the “hull” around the hollow dialogue about the Ironborn. Cersei laments Varys’ absence and Aurane is the sole character who is as silent as Varys during the Ironborn silliness. George thus creates a framework for the reader to see Aurane as Varys’ replacement, not so much to be the master of whisperers, but to manipulate the crown to help Aegon’s homecoming.
I would also argue that Aurane is likely the most familiar with Balon’s brothers in a military sense. He was raised at Driftmark as a recognized bastard of House Velaryon, and is not looked down upon by the noble court. Recognized (aka named) bastards of noble birth- like Edric Storm, Jon Snow, … – are trained and taught like any other trueborn noble child. For House Velaryon and Driftmark this would have been naval tactics and historical naval battles. And since House Velaryon is a vassal to the master of Dragonstone, Stannis Baratheon, who won the Sea Battle off Fair Isle, against Victarion, Aeron and Euron, that battle would have been something Aurane would have heard being discussed often. He would have been around eleven at the time of the Greyjoy Rebellion. Aside from studying maps, he would have re-enacted some form of sword buckling and arguing over who got to play Stannis, the Lord of Driftmark, or one of the villainous Greyjoys.
We now have enough framing by George to ponder the rest of Aurane’s dialogue during the small council.
The first actual subject discussed during the meeting is Prince Doran’s news (by raven message to Pycelle) about the house arrest of the Sandsnakes and his request for justice about Gregor Clegane’s confession of raping and murdering Elia Martell. Cersei shares her decision to send Balon Swann to Sunspear with Gregor’s head. The Hand, Ser Harys Swyft then asks whether the Mountain is dead, which provokes Aurane to say, …
“Ah.” Ser Harys Swyft fumbled at his funny little beard with thumb and forefinger. “He is dead then? Ser Gregor?”
“I would think so, my lord,” Aurane Waters said dryly. “I am told that removing the head from the body is often mortal.” (aFfC, Cersei IV)
By the end of Cersei’s walk of shame in aDwD, Ser Gregor is, nevertheless, to be revealed to be both headless and undead, via Qyburn’s necromancing. Aurane’s dry remark betrays a non magical worldview, like Varys, and very much unlike Qyburn.
The fleet subject and the ironborn comes after, followed by the Freys demanding even more rewards. Qyburn warns the council that there is talk in the pot shops and winesinks that the crown was involved with the red wedding. He suggests they perhaps need to take some Frey heads to appear to dispense justice for what the sparrows call an affront to the gods. Both Aurane and Qyburn reference it as the red wedding. Aurane then guides the subject to the Golden Company and Stannis. When the north is dicussed, the council decides they want Lord Wyman Manderly to behead Stannis’s onion smuggler.
“Just this morning there was another bird. Stannis has sent his onion smuggler to treat with White Harbor on his behalf. Manderly has clapped the wretch inside a cell. He asks us what he should do with him.”[..] “I have instructed Lord Manderly to have his head off forthwith. That should put an end to any chance of White Harbor supporting Stannis.”
“Stannis will need another Hand,” observed Aurane Waters with a chuckle. “The turnip knight, perhaps?”
“A turnip knight?” said Ser Harys Swyft, confused. “Who is this man? I have not heard of him.” Waters did not reply, except to roll his eyes. (aFfC, Cersei IV)
Aurane makes an ableist joke here about Stannis and Ser Davos as his Hand. That joke may have earned him Cersei’s trust, but I hope you as reader see that we now have the following subject build up in which Aurane involves himself via dialogue.
- new war fleet,
- Golden Company coming to Westeros
- smuggling “food” (onions) into Storm’s End during Mace Tyrell’s siege
The conversation then moves to Sansa and Jon Snow’s letter as Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch. As the council discusses Jon Snow’s “treason” by giving Stannis land and castles, Aurane suggests that the Crown could recommend the lords of the realm to send their poachers and thieves to Aurane to crew the ships with oarsmen.
“Our new dromonds will need oarsmen,” said Aurane Waters. “Let us instruct the lords to send their poachers and thieves to me henceforth, instead of to the Wall.”
Qyburn leaned forward with a smile. “The Night’s Watch defends us all from snarks and grumkins. My lords, I say that we must help the brave black brothers.”
Cersei gave him a sharp look. “What are you saying?”
“This,” Qyburn said. “For years now, the Night’s Watch has begged for men. Lord Stannis has answered their plea. Can King Tommen do less? His Grace should send the Wall a hundred men. To take the black, ostensibly, but in truth . . .”
“. . . to remove Jon Snow from the command,” Cersei finished, delighted. I knew I was right to want him on my council. (aFfC, Cersei IV)
On the one hand, Aurane’s dismissal of the Wall’s need for his own future ships reflects the negligence of so many, including by Varys. But within the context of the coming together of all the elements of Aegon’s homecoming and successful taking of Storm’s End, this likely foreshadows how Aegon too will ignore the Wall’s plight. But I suspect Aurane’s comment on manning the ships prompting Cersei’s plot to have Jon Snow assassinated is a timing foreshadowing.
If this bastard boy is truly his father’s son, he will not suspect a thing. Perhaps he will even thank me, before the blade slides between his ribs. (aFfC, Cersei IV)
With the “timing” I mean that timeline wise Aegon captures Storm’s End via smuggle route around the moment that Bowen Marsh attempts to assassinate Jon.
Even as the small council is concluded, Aurane adds one more piece of information.
“One last thing, Your Grace,” said Aurane Waters, in an apologetic tone. “I hesitate to take up the council’s time with trifles, but there has been some queer talk heard along the docks of late. Sailors from the east. They speak of dragons . . .”
“. . . and manticores, no doubt, and bearded snarks?” Cersei chuckled. “Come back to me when you hear talk of dwarfs, my lord.” She stood, to signal that the meeting was at an end. (aFfC, Cersei IV)
The content itself is not newsworthy to either the reader or Cersei, but completes the three plot points of Aegon and the Golden Company. It is yet another reference to Varys, specifically with Aurane as a stand-in, because this non-news to the reader was already introduced to Tywin’s small council in aSoS (with Cersei present):
The eunuch drew a parchment from his sleeve. “A kraken has been seen off the Fingers.” He giggled. “Not a Greyjoy, mind you, a true kraken. It attacked an Ibbenese whaler and pulled it under. There is fighting on the Stepstones, and a new war between Tyrosh and Lys seems likely. Both hope to win Myr as ally. Sailors back from the Jade Sea report that a three-headed dragon has hatched in Qarth, and is the wonder of that city—”
“Dragons and krakens do not interest me, regardless of the number of their heads,” said Lord Tywin. (aSoS, Tyrion III)
Overall, Cersei’s small council meeting in aFfC is a mirror of the one with Tywin’s: discussing alliances with the Greyjoys, the ironmen at Moat Cailin, wildlings, the Wall’s cry for help against the wildlings, krakens, the Vale and who gets to lead it, … In that sense, Cersei’s meeting is a continuation on the Lannister attempts to hold onto power via assassination, treachery and their ineptness at wielding soft power. But that is exactly why it is so interesting that Aurane is the character who gets to say the information updates that Varys volunteered in the above.
We can now conclude on the following 5 tips coalescing with Aurane’s dialogue:
- Aurane’s war fleet,
- Golden Company coming to Westeros
- Storm’s End via smuggle route
- around the time of the attempt on Jon Snow’s life
- the word “dragon”
Finally, I want to address how Aurane’s dialogue and information sharing matches with Varys’ MO: Varys would flood the consecutive councils with information, from drunken talk in the potshops, to news sailors from Essos. Varys let the king or Hand decide what they consider relevant or not. This created an image of impartiality and therefore reliability. This tactic was how a spymaster – slave born, and foreigner – managed to remain master of whisperers to the Mad King, Aerys’ enemy Robert Baratheon, and the consecutive Hands of the King (Jon Arryn, Eddard Stark, Tyrion and Tywin Lannister).
Once Varys knew what subject piqued a king’s or hand’s interest, this then became his angle to manipulate them, much like a social media algorithm does with us. Varys used the wanderings of Viserys and Danearys as a jangling key for Robert, plots by Cersei against Robert’s life with Ned Stark, critical drunken talk in winesinks with Joffrey, Joffrey’s or Cersei’s schemes to Tyrion … Occasionally, he would still drop some reports on subjects that disinterest the ruler but preserved Varys’ image of impartiality. This way Varys also avoided being accused of having withhold crucial information before their impact was felt in the realm.
I will touch slightly on the claim that Varys “always speaks the truth”. Varys is not a honest person. He is a deceiver. Obviously, whenever he talks, he will lean to the truth as close as possible, for the most practical reason – he cannot afford being caught in a lie. Other readers have pointed this pragmatic tactic out long before me.
Varys is the only one in the books who is actually an intelligence professional. That means he’s the only one who brings a professional’s self-discipline to the job. Littlefinger is good, very good, at it, but he’s a gifted amateur playing for love of the game and it shows. He does and says things just to pat himself on the back and prove to himself how much more clever he is than the dolts he’s using as pawns. Varys never does that. The reason that’s important in this context is that, being a professional, Varys is probably the only one to realize just how damaging being caught in an outright lie could be to his entire operation. (Post by Littlestfinger, June 12, 2014, on Westeros.org on “Varys does not lie. Does he?”
The hardest thing about a lie is remembering it and keeping track of it. So, yes in my opinion Varys tells the truth most of the time. He mostly lies by omission, tweaking words to create the wrong impression or interpretation, and choosing his timing well. Aurane’s hearsay from around the docks serves him in the same way. It is bait to check what Cersei really knows now that she has Qyburn as spymaster and how much she is interested in the various political development in Essos. The sole difference is that Aurane is more willing to mix in a lie (Stannis’ involvement). It serves him, however, because this is how he makes it clear he is not serving Stannis anymore. And if he switched his allegiance from Stannis to Varys’ Aegon, then this is the truth at heart of it all. Similarly, Varys used news on Dany and Viserys to appear disloyal to the dragons, while his loyalty is to another dragon.
A Bastard’s Motive
Most readers consider Aurane mostly an opportunist who shops around or is for sale to whomever promises him the biggest reward. For example, BryndenBFish proposes that initially Aurane may have sought to curry favour with Stannis, because of his meritocratic leanings. He rewarded Davos – commoner and smuggler – first with knighthood and later lordship. And only a king can legitimize a bastard. So, Aurane may have hoped to be rewarded Driftmark in case his half-brother Monford Velaryon died during the course of the war. But his capture at the Blackwater intervened with this, and then he attampted to ingratiate himself with the Tyrells, etc. Varys supposedly noticed this from a distance and bought Aurane with promises. The issue I have with this take is that it relies on the facade of Aurane as conman, rather than agent, and ignores several of the literary links George is establishing to a deeper motive.
It must be said that we only acquired enough background information to consider alternative motives instead of opportunism, since the various publications about the Dance of the Dragons: the novelettes The Princess and the Queen (December 3, 2013), The Rogue Prince (June 17, 2014), the coffee table book The World of Ice and Fire (October 28th, 2014) and Fire and Blood (November 20th, 2018). BryndenBfish’s proposal of 2016 had enough information to question this image of the opportunist, but not enough to come with a well founded alternative. Fire and Blood reveals Alyn “Oakenfist” Velaryon’s chosen epitath for his brother’s grave – loyal.
I think that Aurane’s motive is loyalty: to his late brother, to Driftmark, to his nephew, to the legacy and ancestry of House Velaryion, to the Prince of Dragonstone, to house Targaryen. And I believe that Alyn Oakenfist is his personal hero. I know that sounds the furthest from how you perceive Aurane, but I would not make this claim if there is no foundation for this in text, through background, symbolism, literary referencing and logic.
Driftmark?
Going home and acquiring the homeland is at least the goal of Aegon, Jon Connington and the Golden Company. So it is not without reason to suppose Aurane wants his home Driftmarke. But if ever Aurane had a chance to gain Driftmark as a seat that opportunity presented itself when he was Cersei’s admiral. All those who remained loyal to Stannis after the Battle of the Blackwater were stripped of their seats and lands by King Joffrey and his Hand Tywin Lannister. These seats were given to other men either in writing or by force, in the Crownlands, the Riverlands and Stormlands, regardless who occupies it currently. The taking, sieging and gifting of castles, lands is a recurring theme in the very small council we already analysed. The Freys want even more seats. Jon Snow is a traitor in their eyes for gifting Stannis castles and land. Heck, they even discuss carving up the North in two to give one half to the ironborn and the other half to House Bolton. But quite notably Driftmark is never one of those seats!
According to the appendix of aSoS and Stannis the Lord of Tides is Aurane’s nephew, the prior Lord Monford’s son Monterys (six years old). Lke his father, Monterys still supports Stannis: Jon sees the Driftmark seahorse banners amongst Stannis’ army as it descends on Mance Rayder’s host at the Wall. And regardless whether Monterys is at Driftmark or in the North, Cersei spells out that Lord Waters is an empty honor, because he has no lands or castle.
Rosby’s gold would help refresh their coffers, and Rosby’s lands and castle could be bestowed upon one of her own as a reward for leal service. Lord Waters, perhaps. Aurane had been hinting at his need for a seat; his lordship was only an empty honor without one. He had his eye on Dragonstone, Cersei knew, but there he aimed too high. Rosby would be more suitable to his birth and station. (aFfC, Cersei IX)
Cersei claims that Aurane wants Dragonstone but considers gifting him the Rosby lands and castle instead. So, Aurane clearly failed to mention Driftmark by name. Can there be any doubt that if Aurane had requested for Driftmark, that Cersei would have gifted Driftmark’s seat on paper instantly, when it was in the hands of a child lord who supported Stannis? Of course not.
Perhaps, Aurane hinted at Driftmark without naming it, and Cersei mistook it to mean Dragonstone, because she seems obtuse to these matters overall, despite the fact that she knows he is referred to as the bastard of Driftmark. That argument seems to hold up until we consider that Aurane’s non-mention of Driftmark is matched by non-action in physically taking Driftmark once he sails off with the dromonds. Instead he sails for the Stepstones.
I tend to take Cersei’s certainty about Aurane wanting Dragonstone with a big grain of salt. Not because I doubt that Aurane may have asked for or hinted at Dragonstone. But because I think that if he did, it was part of the plan to facilitate the return for Aegon and Dany, not for himself. Despite the fact that Dragonstone was “captured” and Paxter Redwyne sailed off for the Reach, Aurane himself did not sail with Cersei’s monstrous new war ships to Dragonstone, but sailed for the Stepstones.
The Bastards
The contradiction about Aurane supposedly wanting land with the title, but being absolutely fine wit just taking a war fleet and sail off to the Stepstones to be Lord of the Waters opens the door to the possiblity that Aurane Waters stayed true and loyal to the family he grew up with, despite being a rogue and thief (towards the Lannisters). Is it that unheard of that bastards may be loyal to their house? Jon Snow refused Stannis’s offer of Winterfell, though in his heart he desires it. Taking it from his half-sisters feels like a betrayal to him, even if they are wed to a Lannister (or Bolton). Jon Snow could only ever accept Winterfell as his seat if it was a Stark’s dying wish. Could Aurane Waters may have similar loyalties to House Velaryon and the son of his late half brother?
Perhaps you consider the comparison between Aurane and Jon laughable. But let me remind you that Aurane did ask for the poachers and thieves normally sent to the Wall to be sent to him instead. We can view that as wrong and villainous, because the Wall is in need of defending. Simultaneously, in a literary sense, George manoevered the reader to consider Aurane as commanding a penal colony, which is Jon’s role. And without Jon’s POV we might end up believing Jon is an opportunistic traitor who killed his brother Qhorin halfhand to be a wildling, around the same time that Aurane bends the knee to Joffrey. My point is that what we saw and heard about Aurane in aFfC through Cersei’s POV may compare to how the reader would perceive Jon Snow if Mance had been the POV in aSoS.
Do we have any indications that Aurane and his half brother grew up together? At least, Aurane’s nickname, the bastard of Driftmark, indicates that he grew up at Driftmark, alongside his trueborn sibling, not unlike Jon Snow and Ned Stark’s trueborn children. Aurane and his half brother never appear together on page, but then Lord Monford and Aurane appear on page only a handful of times in total in aCoK. Do these glimpses give us enough indication what type of relation these two may have had?
We are first introduced to House Velaryon in Cressen’s Prologue. As supporter of Stannis since the early hour, Lord Monford Velaryon is present at the feast when Cressen attempts to poison Melisandre. We get a short description of his looks and attire.
Cressen looked over the knights and captains and lords sitting silent. […] Handsome Lord Velaryon chose sea-green silk, the white gold seahorse at his throat matching his long fair hair. (aCoK, Prologue)
Stannis claims to Cressen that Monford is impatient to attack and to Davos that he believes only steel will decide the matter, not words on parchment. He reveals that Monford together with Salla advized Stannis to sail against Joffrey instead of trying to take Storm’s End. He also predicts that Velaryon would all be for scaling the walls of Storm’s End to take the castle. All of this is hearsay, though they portray Lord Monford as a young impatient brave man, eager for battle and making a name for himself.
Lord Monford is vey much a background character, but there is one interesting contradicton about him. When the Lord of Driftmark attended the burning of the Seven at Dragonstone, Davos notes how he watches Stannis more than the spectacle and he believes Lord Velaryion would consider the onion knight to be beneath him.
[…] and Lord Velaryon was watching the king rather than the conflagration. Davos would have given much to know what he was thinking, but one such as Velaryon would never confide in him. The Lord of the Tides was of the blood of ancient Valyria, and his House had thrice provided brides for Targaryen princes; (aCoK, Davos I)
And yet, Davos may be mistaken, because this happens after the burning of the Seven.
When Davos arrived at the Stone Drum, a dozen highborn knights and great bannermen were just leaving. Lords Celtigar and Velaryon each gave him a curt nod and walked on while the others ignored him utterly, but Ser Axell Florent stopped for a word. (aCoK, Davos I)
Monford is one of the very few men who recognizes his existence, alongside Lord Celtigar of another ancient house with old Valyrian blood. This is contrasted against lickspittle Ser Axell Florent who is overly familiar to Davos, and contrasted against the majority of lords ignoring Davos completely. In other words, with that one nod, Monford signals he regards Davos Seaworth his equal or peer, despite his birth status. If so, then Lord Monford shares Stannis’ pencheant for meritocracy and that he had similar sentiments about his half brother.
Of course, Monford’s views may not have been shared equally by Aurane. Aurane’s ableist remark about Stannis requiring a new Hand for example, may be a sign that Aurane feels superior over Davos in a manner that his brother Monford did not. But Stannis was more the butt of his joke and Aurane must distance himself verbally from Stannis at the Small Council meeting.
Admitedly, the bastard of Driftmark is not present alongside Lord Velaryon on Dragonstone during the feast and meeting with Stannis. But that does not negate the two men may have an amical relationship. Jon was kept out of royal sight at feasts and hunts during Robert’s visit of Winterfell, because Ned Stark wanted to keep people from wondering about Jon’s parentage – out of sight, out of mind. Remember that during this feast Stannis claims he is king over Joffrey, because the latter is Cersei’s bastard of incest. Lord Velaryon would have been foolish to insist that his bastard brother get a seat at the dais during meetings where Joffrey’s bastardry is part of the dais talk. Clearly, Aurane would have to get noticed by merit first with Stannis. Aside from youth, this might have added to Monford’s impatience to see battle.
While prejudice against bastards is prevalent, some regions and houses recognize and thank their house’s survival and honor on an ancestor who was bastard born. House Velaryon is such a one. Their ancestor is not some Brandon Stark in tales forgotten like that of Bael the bard, but in a recent, publically and historically recognized lineage deeply tied to the Dance of the Dragons, the civil war between the Blacks and Greens. The current house Velaryon descends from Alyn “Oakenfist” Velaryon, the legitimized bastard Alyn of Hull. He became Lord of the Tides after the death of Lord Corlys “the Seasnake” Velaryon. The manner in which he became the lord and seafaring hero would make any descendant proud that this bastard was their ancestor. If there might have been shame and hiding of bastards before the Dance of the Dragons with House Velaryon, Alyn certainly would have promoted inclusion of the children parented out of wedlock.
How Alyn of Hull became Corlys Velaryon’s heirCorlys Velaryon was the husband of princess Rhaenys Targaryen, the Queen Who Never Was. They had two children, Laenor and Laena Velaryon. Laenor was Rhaenyra’s spouse and officially the father of her first three sons – Jacaerys, Lucerys and Joffrey Velaryon. However, Rhaenyra’s sons looked suspiciously more like Rhaenyra’s sworn shield Ser Harwin Strong and Laenor Velaryon was rumored or known to be gay. Laena was Daemon Targaryen’s second wife. They had two daughters, Baela and Rhaena Targaryen. Laenor and Laena died in short succession at the start of 120 AC. And when Corlys fell gravely ill in 126 AC, his eldest “grandson” Jacaerys Velaryon stood to inherit. But he was also Rhaenyra’s heir to the throne. So, Rhaenyra suggested that Lucerys should be named heir to Driftmark. Corlys’ nephew, Vaemond Velaryon publically claimed Rhaenyra’s eldest three sons had been fathered by Harwin Strong, and lost his head for the treason. The remaining five nephews of Corlys petitioned their case with the crown and King Viserys had their tongues for it, to be forever known as the Silent Five. Lucerys Velaryon did not surive long enough to actually inherit Driftmark. He died at the onset of the Dance, when Aemond Targaryen chased him on Vhagar after a diplomatic mission at Storm’s End. During the Sowing (the search for dragonriders for the Blacks), Marilda of Hull proclaimed her two sons were fathered by Laenor – Addam (15) and Alyn of Hull (13 or 14). Many believe they were Corlys’ bastard sons rather than his grandsons. Crucial is that Marilda of Hull came out to declare them Laenor’s sons only after Rhaenys’ death at Rook’s Rest. Corlys pressed for them to be legitimized by Rhaenyra (as Queen) and she relented. As such, Corlys named Addam of Hull – who claimed Laenor’s Seasmoke – his new heir. After two of Rhaenyra’s dragonseeds betrayed her to join Prince Daeron Targaryen and the Greens at Tumbleton, a paranoid Rhaenyra ordered Addam Velaryon preemptively arrested for harsh questioning. Corlys warned Addam before he could be arrested and Addam fled on Seasmoke. For this Corlys was thrown in a cell while Addam gathered an army of four thousand from the Gods Eye to attack Tumbleton at night and prove his loyalty to Rhaenyra. He won, but at the cost of his own life. Inthe end, the Sea Snake outlived both Rhaenyra and Aegon II. He died in 132 AC and Addam’s brother, Alyn “Oakenfist” Velaryon, née Alyn of Hull, was the sole “direct” heir left. But even this was not without contest. The silent five had fought on the side of the Greens and two of them survived the Dance: Ser Malentine and Ser Rhogar Velaryon. They petitioned with Aegon III to be recognized as Corlys’ heirs. After their request was denied, they plotted to assassinate Alyn. Malentine died in the attempt, while Ser Rhogar was taken by the Driftmark guards. The latter was condemned to death but took the black. After which Alyn’s lordship was uncontested. |
The Loyalty of a seahorse
If Aurane grew up at Driftmark, as his nickname implies, then he would have been familiar with the histories and ancestors of House Velaryon and we could assume that especially the story of Alyn of Hull would be one of his favourites. And it is safe to presume that Aurane knows of the story of Addam and Alyn about loyalty. Rhaenyra’s fears of betrayal by the dragonseeds led to Addam being accused of planning treason, Corlys Velaryon’s imprisonment and Addam’s suicadal victory over the Greens at Tumbleton. When finally Addam’s bones were returned to Driftmark, his brother Lord Alyn Velarion raised a grave and had only one word written on it – Loyal.
At moonrise the riverlords abandoned the field to the carrion crows, fading back into the hills. One of them, the boy Ben Blackwood, carried with him the broken body of Ser Addam Velaryon, found dead beside his dragon.
His bones would rest at Raventree Hall for eight years, but in 138 AC his brother, Alyn, would have them returned to Driftmark and entombed in Hull, the town of his birth. On his tomb is engraved a single word: LOYAL. Its ornate letters are supported by carvings of a seahorse and a mouse. (Fire and Blood – The Dying of the Dragons)
That site of the gravestone must still exist. Even if Aurane was not close with Lord Monford or not instructed by a maester, even smallfolk would tell tales. Once George published this background detail for bastards of House Velaryon and had a memorial erected for it on the island, it became relevant to what could motivate or influence Aurane Waters.
While the motto of House Velaryon is “The Old, the True, the Brave“, one could say that the motto for the bastards of Driftmark is LOYAL, with capital letters. Alongside the word loyal on Addam’s gravestone were carved a seahorse and a mouse. Basically it implies Addam’s parentage of a Velaryon, as the seahorse is the sigil of House Velaryon and Marilda of Hull, whose nickname was Mouse. Her merchant cog on which she brought Aegon II back to King’s Landing from Dragonstone, after Rhaenyra’s death was also called Mouse. And she built House Mouse as a manse overlooking Hull on the island of Driftmark.
In the essays of The Trail of the Red Stallion I established how George uses horses as a mirror or hint about the characters that ride it. In its most general view, horses are stand-in for people. In this sense the seahorse is a symbolic play on sea-people or mariners. We should pay attention to the names of their ships, as much as we should with the equivalent of character’s horses. Moreover, in the essay about Dany being Saint George’s true dragon, I argue that Dany’s silver horse are her wings to her dragonriding soul. I also show how ships are dragons with sails for wings. So, a silver seahorsetherefore symbolizes a sea dragon, or a family of seafarers with dragonblood ties to Targaryens who exchanged the batwings of dragons for sails and oars.
Lord Monford is present at the Battle of the Blackwater and at Dragonstone with four of his war galleys: Pride of Driftmark, Bold Laughter, Harridan and Seahorse.
Wooden wings had sprouted from the Wraith and Lady Marya as well. The three galleys kept pace, their blades churning the water. “Slow cruise,” Davos called. Lord Velaryon’s silver-hulled Pride of Driftmark had moved into her position to port of Wraith, and Bold Laughter was coming up fast, but Harridan was only now getting her oars into the water and Seahorse was still struggling to bring down her mast. (aCoK, Davos III)
Lord Monford captains the Pride of Driftmark, and since he perishes with his silver-hulled flagship during the Battle of the Blackwater, it is implied he is the perished pride of House Velaryon. Add Bold Laughter and Harridan (synonym to hag or crone), and we have House Velaryon’s motto of “the Old, the True, the Brave”. Bold is often seen as brave and a harridan usually means an old woman. During the battle of the Blackwater, a trebuchet’s boulder did for Bold Laughter, while Harridan burned down.
On the walls of King’s Landing, spitfires were belching death, and the great trebuchets behind the Mud Gate were throwing boulders. One the size of an ox crashed down between Black Betha and Wraith, rocking both ships and soaking every man on deck. Another, not much smaller, found Bold Laughter. The Velaryon galley exploded like a child’s toy dropped from a tower, spraying splinters as long as a man’s arm. […`] Fifty feet high, a swirling demon of green flame danced upon the river. It had a dozen hands, in each a whip, and whatever they touched burst into fire. He saw Black Betha burning, and White Hart and Loyal Man to either side. Piety, Cat, Courageous, Sceptre, Red Raven, Harridan, Faithful, Fury, they had all gone up, Kingslander and Godsgrace as well, the demon was eating his own. Lord Velaryon’s shining Pride of Driftmark was trying to turn, but the demon ran a lazy green finger across her silvery oars and they flared up like so many tapers. For an instant she seemed to be stroking the river with two banks of long bright torches. (aCoK, Davos III)
Seahorse seems to have survived the inferno. It is as if House Velaryon is stripped of its formal words and the bare essential. And that means the word on the gravestone, “Loyal”, is all that remains. And indeed in the lost Bold Laughter we have a tie to the ancestral Oakenfist: Alyn commanded a merchant fleet to Dorne and the Free Cities on Bold Marilda. Even if pride and bold laughter was lost, the foundation remained, even for Aurane who was captured. For a silver seahorse is like a wingless bat (dragon), a mouse.
So where lies House Velaryon’s loyalty really? To the Iron Throne, the Lord of Dragonstone, the Faith or the Valyrian blood? Officially and historically they serve Dragonstone. But I would argue that ultimately a Velaryon’s loyalty is rooted in the blood of Old Valyria. They themselves are Valyrian as is House Celtigar.
The Velaryons came from old Valyrian stock, however, and some had the same silvery hair as the dragonkings of old. (aFfC, Cersei III)
It is not exactly known when House Velaryon or Celtigar settled on their respective islands of Blackwater Bay, but we do know it was well before House Targaryen moved to Dragonstone. Twelve years before the Doom of Valyaria, the Targaryens resettled from Old Valyria onto Dragonstone on account of the dreams that Daenys the Dreamer had about what would befall the peninsula of Valyria. The Doom of Valyria occurred in 102 BC, so little over 4 centuries ago. That means House Targaryen moved to Dragonstone in 114 BC. But they did not build the castle of Dragonstone. It was built by the dragonlords of Valyria two centuries prior to this.
Perhaps in preparation for their crossing of the narrow sea, the Valyrians also established their westernmost outpost on the isle that would come to be known as Dragonstone some two hundred years before the Doom. No king opposed them — and though the local lords of the narrow sea made some effort to resist it, the strength of Valyria was too great. With their arcane arts, the Valyrians raised the Citadel at Dragonstone. Two centuries passed—centuries in which the coveted Valyrian steel began to trickle into the Seven Kingdoms more swiftly than before—though not swiftly enough for all the lords and kings who desired it. And although the sight of a dragonlord flying high above Blackwater Bay was not unknown, it occurred more frequently as time passed. Valyria felt its outpost was secured, and the dragonlords thus continued their schemes and intrigues on their native continent. (tWoIaF – Ancient History: The Doom of Valyria)
So, about six centuries before the current events (so 300 BC) a westernmost outpost was created on Dragonstone as was the castle by the dragonlords of Valyria. And it was not a permanent residence for any dragonlord family until the Targaryens decided to relocate there. If we look at the map, we see that Driftmark acts like a shield for Dragonstone against any threat from Duskendale or Massey’s Hook. Meanwhile Celtigar’s Claw Isle can forewarn threats sailing from the Vale or Maidenpool. So, while the Velaryons certainly had a commercial benefit in settling on Driftmark this close to Duskendale, they no doubt patrolled the Gullet to prevent Westerosi from inspecting Dragonstone for dragon eggs.
House Velaryon is historically sworn to Dragonstone. We tend to take this in the feudal sense of a vassal to his lord. Once Stannis is Lord or Prince of Dragonstone, it therefore is logical to expect House Velaryion to be loyal to Stannis. It works fine from the current feudal position they have in relation to Dragonstone, since the conquering. But if House Velaryon acted as a military marine shield for Dragonstone – an island where dragonlords could hatch or preserve clutches of dragon eggs outside of Valyria – before the Doom of Valyria even, before the Targaryens claimed lordship over the volcanic island, then their fealty and loyalty is not just to the one who is named Lord of Dragonstone, but to Valyrian dragonlord blood. The Doom simplified it by making the Targaryens the sole dragonlord family to survive, and Aegon’s conquering brought this relation with House Velaryon into the feudal framing of a kingdom. After the conquering, Dragonstone remained a secondary home to Targaryens – usually serving as a home to the heir to the Iron Throne or the next in line – as well as an island where dragons would lay their clutches of dragon eggs.
So, it seems to me that House Velaryon settled onto Driftmark at the latest around the time the dragonlords picked Dragonstone as an outpost, to act as a mariner shield, and control trade of Valyrian steel this close to Duskendale, Gulltown and Maidenpool. And their first settling on Driftmark may predate that moment by several generations. The fact that the seat of the Velaryons is called the Driftwood Throne and the settlement is tied to a legend of the Merling King seems to indicate this.
Corlys Velaryon became a lord after his grandsire’s death and used his wealth to raise a new seat, High Tide, to replace the damp, cramped castle Driftmark and house the ancient Driftwood Throne—the high seat of the Velaryons, which legend claims was given to them by the Merling King to conclude a pact. (tWoIaF – The Targaryen Kings: Jaehaerys I)
Nobody refers to a seat as a throne, unless they were regarded at least a petty king at some point. The legend of the Merling King helps House Velaryon in creating an image where they never aspired to be more than the Dragonlords of Valyria. Nevertheless they might have, once, before the dragonlords scouted out Dragonstone as outpost. The Merling King is a legendary god tied to the Narrow Sea, beyond the Blackwater Bay, predating the Faith of the Seven. While the Andals were still conquering all of the Vale, a sorceress on Witch Isle, Ursula Upcliff, called herself the bride of the Merling King.
By that time the Andals controlled threequarters of the Vale and had begun to fight amongst themselves, as had the First Men before them. Robar Royce saw opportunity in their disunity. Across the Vale, a handful of First Men still held out against the Andals; the Redforts of Redfort, the Hunters of Longbow Hall, the Belmores of Strongsong, and the Coldwaters of Coldwater Burn chief amongst them. One by one, Robar made alliance with each of them, and many smaller clans and houses besides, bringing them to his cause with marriages, grants of land, gold, and (in one celebrated case) by outshooting the Lord Hunter in an archery contest (legend claims that King Robar cheated). So honeyed was his tongue that he even won the allegiance of Ursula Upcliff, a reputed sorceress who called herself bride of the Merling King. (tWoIaF – The Vale)
This makes me believe that House Velaryon settled on Driftmark before the Faith of the Seven was widely followed south of the Riverlands, the Crownlands and the Stormlands. This would explain why the Velaryons used a local seagod as the one who gifted them the right to rule Blackwater Bay from Driftmark. This would be the god the smallfolk, petty kings and lords of the surrounding area would have heeded. All of this explains why Lord Monford ignores the burning of the Seven at Dragonstone, but instead watches Stannis Baratheon instead. It would also be a possible motive for a ship to be called Harridan instead of Crone.
Regardless, the Andals (Qarlong the Great) and their faith were eventually destroyed by dragonlords of Valyria during the Scouring of Lorath, before the Boash settled in Lorath around 1436 BC, even after the Andals had started to conquer Westeros. So, a Valyrian house that sails and resides near the harbor of Duskendale of House Darklyn (First Men) would not have felt the need to follow the Faith before the Conquering. Aegon the Conquerer’s descendants only adopt the Faith to smoothen their rule over Westeros. As global seafaring adventures, the Velaryons lack the specific incentive to be followers of the Faith other than performative.
Of course, House Velaryon is not without its personal ambition, and some Velaryons pursued ambitions that made them act against the Targaryen seated on Dragonstone and even the lord of Driftmark. While the Sea Snake was loyal to Daemon and Rhaenyra, his nephews, the silent five, acted against Rhaenyra, both when she is Princess of Dragonstone as well as crowned Queen. They fought alongside Aegon II, all in the hope to acquire Driftmark.
During Aerys II’s reign and the Year of the False Spring, Lord Lucerys Velaryon is one of the lickspittles who spoke ill of Rhaegar, the Prince of Dragonstone. He helped to fan the hostilities between the mad king and his heir. It is unclear what befell Lord Lucerys during the rebellion, for now. Although it is safe to assume that if he survived the rebellion, he likely was part of the royal fleet at Dragonstone that was smashed in the storm during Dany’s birth. We do not know the relation between Lucerys and Monford, but we do know that by 299 AC Stannis defines Monford as a young lord, who is eager to see battle. This means that Monford was a child still himself during Robert’s Rebellion, like Aurane was.
By the time the series of aSoIaF starts though, the three brothers Baratheon are the ones left closest to the dragon blood in Westeros, and Stannis takes the seat of Dragonstone. Once Lord Monford accepted that Joffrey was not Robert’s, then Stannis was the one with the most dragonlord blood. In that sense, Lord Monford studying Stannis during Mel’s burning of the Seven rather the burning effigees could be interpreted as him looking at the last of the dragonlord blood using fire and blood magic.
If Aurane remained loyal to House Velaryon and the Targaryen blood, then his bending the knee to Joffrey after captivity would seem to oppose it. I already pointed out, however, it can be seen as a parallel to Jon joining the wildlings and the King Beyond the Wall, Mance Rayder. If this parallel holds, and consider “loyalty” as motive for Aurane, and not opportunism, we realize how and when Varys recruited Aurane Waters. Varys approached and recruited Aurane as Rugen after Aurane was captured, but before he swore failty to Joffrey.
Note though that Varys did not recruit Aurane from a black cell: only Ned Stark, Pycelle, Tyrion Lannister and the three men Ned gave to Yoren to take to the Wall – Rorge, Biter and Jaquen H’ghar – were held there.
Longwaters scratched his nose. “Rugen was here when need be, my lord. That must be said. The black cells are little used. Before your lordship’s little brother was sent down, we had Grand Maester Pycelle for a time, and before him Lord Stark the traitor. There were three others, common men, but Lord Stark gave them to the Night’s Watch. I did not think it good to free those three, but the papers were in proper order. I made note of that in a report as well, you may be certain of it.” (aFfC, Jaime II)
None of the captives of the Battle of the Blackwater were prisoners in the black cells. But there are other high level cells in the dungeon and since there were so many captives at the Battle of the Blackwater, a great many may have been kept penned together in the field outside the city walls under the watch of Gold Cloaks, Lannister and Tyrell soldiers. The undergoaler disuigse of Rugen or any other of his could work in any of those settings for Varys to move freely amongst the captives.
And it is easy to see how Varys’ would remind Aurance that like Alyn Velaryon he could save the honor of his House and ancestry by helping the dragons return to the Iron Throne if only he chose to bend the knee to Joffrey and live, instead of choosing death.
You might argue that at this point, Varys could not be certain of Aurane’s trustworthiness to reveal Aegon’s existence to him. But Varys could at this point in time reveal that Dany had hatched dragons, was in Qarth and would sail for Pentos soon. Around the same time of Aurane’s capture, Selmy Barristan arrived in Qarth with Belwas and three cogs to take Dany and her baby dragons to Pentos and Illyrio. If Selmy had the time to sail for Qarth once Illyrio discovered Dany’s whereabouts and her having hatched dragons, then Illyrio had time to send news to Varys once the blockade on King’s Landing was lifted.
“Which plan?” said Tristan Rivers. “The fat man’s plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons.” (aDwD, The Lost Lord)
It would not be the first time that Varys successfully persuaded someone into pretending to be someone or act in a manner against their honor. He convinced
- Ned Stark into admitting to treason, into lying, for the sake of his daughter’s life and the promise he could take the black.
- Jon Connington in going along with the lie and story that he stole from the Golden Company and drank himself to death.
Of course, while this is a possible scenario, and we do not have direct evidence that Varys had any contact with Aurane during this timeline. I admit that just because Varys could, that does not mean he would. It is a possible speculative scenario. That does not mean we have no indirect indications that would support this speculative scenario. Remember the quote about who was in the black cells? This came up during a conversation between Jaime and Renniger Longwaters. And that conversation is by itself a very interesting literary device.
Rugen and Rennifer Longwaters
Varys’ alter ego Rugen leads to another golden nugget – Rennifer Longwaters. Jaime interrogates the latter to “learn” more about Rugen. The scene and the dialogue itself seems needless filler.
- We know who Rugen was, since the time Varys visited Ned Stark in his black cell in aGoT.
- Jaime knows who Rugen is, because he ordered Varys to rescue Tyrion from his cell in aSoS.
Nevertheless, Jaime goes through the motions of investigating Rugen and so George introduces us to Rennifer Longwaters.
“And the missing gaoler.”
“Rugen,” the old man supplied. “An undergaoler. He had charge of the third level, the black cells.”
“Tell me of him,” Jaime had to say. A bloody farce. He knew who Rugen was, even if Longwaters did not.
“Unkempt, unshaven, coarse of speech. I misliked the man, ’tis true, I do confess it. Rugen was here when I first came, twelve years past. He held his appointment from King Aerys. The man was seldom here, it must be said. I made note of it in my reports, my lord. I most suredly did, I give you my word upon it, the word of a man with royal blood.” (aFfC, Jaime I)
Now, why would George RR Martin take the time to give us these details? I propose the important information here is not so much Rugen, but Rennifer Longwaters.
“I see you wonder, what sort of name is that?” the man had cackled when Jaime went to question him. “It is an old name, ’tis true. I am not one to boast, but there is royal blood in my veins. I am descended from a princess. My father told me the tale when I was a tad of a lad.” Longwaters had not been a tad of a lad for many a year, to judge from his spotted head and the white hairs growing from his chin. “She was the fairest treasure of the Maidenvault. Lord Oakenfist the great admiral lost his heart to her, though he was married to another. She gave their son the bastard name of ‘Waters’ in honor of his father, and he grew to be a great knight, as did his own son, who put the ‘Long’ before the ‘Waters’ so men might know that he was not basely born himself. So I have a little dragon in me.” (aFfC, Jaime II)
Rennifer’s ancestral princess was Elaena Targaryen, daughter of Aegon III and Daenaera Velaryon, granddaughter of Vaemond Velaryon, who once challenged the potential inheritance of Driftmark during Corlys’ illness and was killed by Daemon Targaryen for it. Nevertheless, Rhaenyra’s first son with Daemon, Aegon III, wed Vaemond’s granddaughter, as the Sea Snake was her great grand uncle.
Daenaera Velaryon and Aegon III Targaryen had five children: Daeron I Targaryen who first conquered Dorne, Baelor the Blessed, and three daughters (Daena, Rhaena and Elaena).
- Daeron I died in Dorne before being wed or fathering any children.
- Baelor the Blessed was wed to his sister Daena, but he never consummated it and locked all three of his sisters in the Maidenvault.
- Rhaena was as pious as Baelor and became a septa.
- But the other two daughters were not pious. Daena Targaryen slepth with her cousin Aegon (later known as Aegon IV the Unworthy), resulting in Daemon Blackfyre and his line.
- Daena’s younger sister Elaena had several husbands and seven children. Two of her children were born out of wedlock, fathered by Alyn Oakenfist when he had an affair with Elaena.
By then Alyn had been Lord of the Tides for over forty years. Elaena had hoped that Alyn would marry her, but he left on his last voyage and was lost at sea. She had twins, Jon and Jeyne Waters. Jon Waters grew up to be the “famous knight”, while Jon’s trueborn son changed the name to Longwaters. So, not only was Elaena herself half Velaryon, so were her children with Alyn.
Rennifer not only connects back to Alyn Velaryon, but also to bastards of the name Waters. Just look at Jaime’s ironic response to Rennifer’s lineage reveal.
“Yes, I almost mistook you for Aegon the Conqueror,” Jaime had answered. “Waters” was a common bastard name about Blackwater Bay; old Longwaters was more like to be descended from some minor household knight than from a princess. “As it matters, though, I have more pressing concerns than your lineage.” (aFfC, Jaime I)
Jaime jokes that he almost mistook Rennifer for Aegon the Conquerer, though of course he looks nothing like a Targaryen. But another Waters does compare enough for Cersei to think of Rhaegar Targaryen.
The other cousin, Elinor, was sharing a cup of wine with the handsome young Bastard of Driftmark, Aurane Waters. It was not the first time the queen had made note of Waters, a lean young man with grey-green eyes and long silver-gold hair. The first time she had seen him, for half a heartbeat she had almost thought Rhaegar Targaryen had returned from the ashes. (aFfC, Cersei III)
Rennifer seems prone to boast about his royal drop of blood any chance he gets. Through the years, Varys as Rugen must have heard it mentioned often and repeatedly. While Jaime might not be interested in such a pedigree, it would have piqued Varys’ interest. And it would have prepared Varys into prospecting House Velaryon’s potential use, long before Aurane was captured. So, Varys knew which arguments to use to influence the bastard of Driftmark, promise him recognition and a future like that of the Oakenfist.
And George certainly wanted to plant a seed here for us of a Waters looking like a Targaryen who is a descendant of Alyn Velaryon, a legitimized bastard of Driftmark who helped return a lost Targaryen, in connection to Varys’ secret identity Rugen and a conquering Aegon. Hmmmm.
Bending the knee
Cersei mistaking Aurane Waters for Rhaegar is not just a parallel to Jaime’s sceptical remark of believing Rennifer Longwaters to be Aegon the Conquerer. It also points to the scene in which Aurane Waters was first introduced to the reader.
The first time she had seen him, for half a heartbeat she had almost thought Rhaegar Targaryen had returned from the ashes. (aFfC, Cersei III)
This first time would have been in the throne room, when Aurane was one of the captives who had to choose between bending the knee to Joffrey or die.
For now the coin was turned over, and the captives were ushered in. There were great lords and noble knights in that company too: sour old Lord Celtigar, the Red Crab; Ser Bonifer the Good; Lord Estermont, more ancient even than Celtigar; Lord Varner, who hobbled the length of the hall on a shattered knee, but would accept no help; Ser Mark Mullendore, grey-faced, his left arm gone to the elbow; fierce Red Ronnet of Griffin Roost; Ser Dermot of the Rainwood; Lord Willum and his sons Josua and Elyas; Ser Jon Fossoway; Ser Timon the Scrapesword; Aurane, the bastard of Driftmark; Lord Staedmon, called Pennylover; hundreds of others.
Those who had changed their allegiance during the battle needed only to swear fealty to Joffrey, but the ones who had fought for Stannis until the bitter end were compelled to speak. Their words decided their fate. If they begged forgiveness for their treasons and promised to serve loyally henceforth, Joffrey welcomed them back into the king’s peace and restored them to all their lands and rights. A handful remained defiant, however. “Do not imagine this is done, boy,” warned one, the bastard son of some Florent or other. “The Lord of Light protects King Stannis, now and always. All your swords and all your scheming shall not save you when his hour comes.”(aCoK, Sansa VIII)
Notice how Sansa uses the phrase “the coin was turned over“. And well, Varys did leave a golden coin in Rugen’s cell, which already implied Taena Merryweather as Varys’ agent to the reader. Aurane Waters is the other side of the same coin being hinted at via Rennifer Longwaters, and thus a second agent.
It is tempting to skip the above scene for analysis, because it mostly just appears to be nothing more than a bunch of names. And yet, the first one to defy King Joffrey should raise some interest. Sansa refers to him as “the bastard son of a Florent or some other.” This anonymous bastard serves as a stand-in for Aurane’s fate if he had chosen to defy Joffrey.
George did not just randomly choose a bastard as the first denier. Right before this man’s rejection of Joffrey, it is said that those who beg forgiveness and swear loyalty will get their lands and rights restored. Guess who has no lands and no rights? Bastards. By making a bastard defy Joffrey right after this menton of returning lands and rights, George suggests that this anonymous bastard man saw more worth in dying while defying Joffrey, than retaining his life with no chance to better it. The sole other bastard amongst the list of names is the bastard of Driftmark, Aurane. So, we certainly are left to ponder the possbility that without his half-brother and Stannis for a king, Aurane should see his hopes smashed equally, and thus how only a man like Varys could revive them.
George also includes a huge symbolic role in the scene of the captives with Lord Varner. Swearing fealty to King Joffrey comes with the expression of “bending the knee“. But Lord Varner has a shattered knee. It is unlikely that when Lord Varner had to hobble the Throne Room to swear fealty to King Joffrey, he physically bent that shattered knee. In other words, his fealty and that of those mentioned in the list of names is mere lip service, not followed true in action. Indeed, many of them were originally with Renly’s host and went over to Stannis after Renly’s death (even Ser Bonifer “the Good” Hasty) and were admonished for it by Cortnay Penrose. Lord Celtigar and Aurane Waters are the sole ones in the list who were with Stannis from the start of aCoK.
Several names in the list are tied to Jon Connington’s quick conquest of Cape Wrath:
- Lord Estermont of the island of Estermont, who becomes a hostage of the Golden Company.
- Red Ronnet of Griffin’s Roost, who loses his seat to Jon Connington.
- Ser Dermot of the Rainwood is but a hedge knight, but the intended landing place was an abandoned beach at the heart of the rainwood on the northern shore, and Rain House of House Wylde is taken with ease by Laswell Peake.
- Jon Fossoway would be a cousin to the second in command in Storm’s End, Lord Meadows who surrendered Storm’s End to Stannis after Cortnay Penrose was killed. And well, apparently Jon Connington and Aegon VI did take Storm’s End by tWoW, Arianne II.
As a young landed knight, Ser Bonifer Hasty was once in love with princess Rhaella Targaryen, and she with him. He wore her token at a tourney that he won and he declared Rhaella his queen of love and beauty. He never stood any chance to be considered a wedding partner for Rhaella however. The day she was wed to Aerys to become the Mad King’s queen, Ser Bonifer put away his lance and became pious. He founded his Holy Hundred and became the castellan of Harrenhal in aFfC. And a familiar name appears when Jaime considers who may have convinced Cersei to make Ser Bonifer the Good castellan of Harrenhal: Lord Orton Merryweather... or should we say Taena?
Jaime could not be certain who had convinced his sister that Ser Bonifer should be named castellan of Harrenhal, but the appointment smelled of Orton Merryweather. Hasty had once served Merryweather’s grandsire, he seemed to recall dimly. And the carrot-haired justiciar was just the sort of simpleminded fool to assume that someone called “the Good” was the very potion the riverlands required to heal the wounds left by Roose Bolton, Vargo Hoat, and Gregor Clegane. (aFfC, Jaime III)
There is a link between Ser Bonifer and the once exiled Hand, Lord Owen Merryweather.
It should also be mentioned that Ser Duncan the Tall noticed a pavillion of purple-white stripes with the occupants making sounds of lovemaking during the wedding tourney of Whitewalls in The Mystery Knight. These are the sigil colors and pattern (white bend on a purple field) of House Hasty. The tourney is referred to as the Second Blackfyre Rebellion and was in actuality a plot to crown Daemon II Blackfyre, third son of Daemon Blackfyre. Though of course those making love in the Hasty pavillion would not have been Bonifer and Rhaella, since neither were born yet at the time, it does tie a Hasty who had a love affair with backing a Blackfyre. Regardless on whether you believe Aegon VI to be a Blackfyre or not, the Golden Company remains associated to Blackfyres.
Now, I do not believe that Bonifer the Good was ever recruited by Varys, or even that he bent the knee to Joffrey with betrayal in mind. Bonifer and the remainder of his Holy Hundred possibly even surrendered voluntarily during the Battle of the Blackwater, after fourteen were killed. But given his background story, he would nevertheless be a sure bet to surrender Harrenhal voluntarily without a fight to Aegon VI, whom he would regard the grandson of his beloved Rhaella.
You see though how most of the names of the list or their castles end up embroiled in the invasion of the Golden Company. I think we should include Lord Celtigar with that, but I will cover him in Part 2 for Salladhor Saan. Mark Mullendore ends up the victim of Cersei’s plot, while House Mullendore may fall victim to Euron Greyjoy’s raids, as its overlords are the Hightowers of Oldtown. By neglecting and downplaying the issue of the Ironborn in the Reach, Cersei sowed the seeds for a potential rebellion against King Tommen in Oldtown and other houses along the Honeywine. It does not end there however, in a symbolic sense Mark Mullendore represents the “broken arm” or lost arm of Dorne.
The last three remaining names, like Lord Varner serve an almost pure symbolical role. Lord Willum and his sons Josua and Elyas? They are a tribute to Tad Williams’ Memory, Sorrow and Thorne fantasy series of the late 80s and early 90s amidst this list of men in particular. Willum is a reference to the author Williams, and the names of Willum’s sons Elyas and Josua refer to two brothers (Elias and Josua) ending up as rivals for the throne, which is made of dragon bones of the dragon their father allegedly killed.
In Catelyn’s chapter where she is an envoy for Robb at Renly’s camp, Elyas and Josua have a dispute over who manages to climb first over the walls of King’s Landing. Hence Elyas and Josua symbolize the feud between Renly and Stannis over a throne that their brother was awarded for killing a dragon, Rhaegar Targaryen. More, the Baratheon dynasty was built on the deaths of the Targaryen dragon dynasty. Even if the Lords had every right to rebel against the Mad King, the murder of Rhaegar’s children and Robert rewarding those behind that slaughter left a stain on his rule.
Spoiler warning! In William’s story the dragonbone chair throne was built on a lie, and the true dynastic heir is an orphaned boy who grows up in the castle as the kitchen’s help. So, when we see Lord Willum and his two sons appear amongst this particular list of names, it points to the other houses ending up kneeling to Aegon VI, the alleged unknown survivor of a dead dynasty.
Much of Willam’s story revolves around a prophecy about bringing together three magical swords. And aside from a dragon skeleton, House Willum’s sigil (in a semi-canon source) depicts three swords. In George’s series we have the legendary Lightbringer in combination with the Prince that was Promised. False or not, Rhaegar did name Aegon the Prince that was Promised and commented that the dragon has three heads. Add the Targaryen swords Blackfyre and Dark Sister and we see how Aegon VI becomes part of the sigil. Even if it is a lie, this reference to William’s series still works out (as anyone who has ever read it would agree with me).
That leaves me to tackle Timon Scrapesword and Lord Pennylover Staedmon. These two men were never mentioned before or after. So, who they are is less important than their names as clues all by themselves.
- Scraping means removing the surface to reveal what is beneath the outer layer or to smoothen a rough outside. In that sense a scrapesword implies a sword in the making underneath a rough appearance. To scrape also means to collect. In that sense a scrapesword becomes a worplay on the concept of a sellsword, where a man is a collected or scraped sword believing in a cause in contrast of an actual sellsword. This interpretation is supported by the name Timon. The Greek Timao means to honour or esteem. A scrapesword therefore switches sides for honorable reasons, not for money.
- Staedmon is a wordplay on a steady or steadfast man. Meanwhile a penny is a coin.
- The first interpretation of Pennylover would be someone who loves coin. Combined with Staedmon this makes for a steadfast coin lover. Interestingly enough, a penny is not made from gold, but copper. It would make for a rather modest sellsword.
- The concept of gold and sellswords combines into the Golden Company and their original cause, namely to install a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne. In contrast, a copper pennylover would hint at wanting to install a red or true dragon. But Penny is also a personal or house name: the dwarf Penny, a historical whore Penny, the House Penny. With Corliss Penny we have a namesake of Corlys Velaryon combined with a penny. Meanwhile one of the lovers of camp follower Penny Jenny was Quentyn Ball, a Blackfyre supporter.
Eech in their own way, Timon Scrapesword and Staedmon Pennylover represent the idea of someone who appears a selfish rogue or sell-out, like the Golden Company seems a sellsword company for money. But when you scrape away the golden surface, you will find the bitter steel and contracts writ in blood, a cause to be loyal to a dragon, red or black. It is possible that Timon Scrapesword is meant as a clue to Jon Fossoway of the Green Apples, in particular, whereas Steadman Pennylover is a clue for Aurane. But as both imply the same concept, with the first leaning more on honor whereas the second does not mind personal material gain while he is committed to a deeper loyalty of blood.
So, when we combine Cersei’s aFfC reference to first seeing Aurane and mistaking him for Rhaegar in the throne room where he “bent the knee” to Joffrey, we come across
- coin references, that point to Taena Merryweather and via Longwaters to a Waters descended from Alyn Oakenfist
- bastards lacking the motivation to “bend the knee” to Joffrey because bastards have no lands and noble rights
- an allusion to those swearing fealty not actually bending the knee.
- allusions to gold and pennyloving scrapeswords
- loyalty to an heir of a prior Targaryen dynasty
This supports the idea that after capture Aurane contemplated refusing to go over to Joffrey, like the other anonymous bastard, but was convinced by Varys to choose life for a higher cause: the return of a “true” dragon. All Varys needed to do then was mention the rich Valyrian history of House Velaryon all on its own, the loyalty of that house to the Targaryens and its true heirs, how even bastards ended up as Lords of the Tides, yadiyada …
The Impulse of Cersei’s Admiration
Taena Merryweather was obvously set to work during Tyrion’s trial to become noticed by the Lannisters as a trustworthy courtier. She lies that she witnessed Tyrion drop something in Joffrey’s wine while the king and Margaery cut the pie. Tyrion even wonders whether she was bought. Later on, during Tywin’s funeral, she approaches Cersei directly, assuring her that she and her husband will happily serve Cersei. And then during the wedding celebrations of Tommen and Margaery, Taena gives up Senelle, and sometime later she drops the info-bomb about Olenna Tyrell’s chest of Gardener gold. So, we have ample evidence on Taena making an effort to gain Cersei’s trust.
In contrast, Aurane never seemed to have made any such effort. He seems to either remain in the background or avoided courtlife as much as possible when Tywin was still alive. He does not appear in an of Sansa’s or Tyrion’s POVs during aSoS, nor is he mentioned by anyone, until aFfC, Cersei III, when she notices him at the wedding celebration of Tommen and Margaery, as he talks with Elinor Tyrell. Next, Jaime mentions having heard a rumor that Cersei intends to make him her Admiral in Jaime II. And we meet him in person during the Small Council in Cersei IV. And unlike with Rosby or Ser Harys Swift, Cersei never betrays in her POV directly what her rationale was. Worse, everything indicates that Cersei’s decision over this was an impulsive one. And this would seem to be a counterargument against Aurane Waters being an agent planted by Varys. It is certainly one of the main reason why Aurane remains under the radar as possible ally of Varys to both characters in-world as well as to readers.
I will show that the indicators back up the impression that Cersei made Aurane Admiral on impulse, and will even propose the likeliest scenario how it came about. But Cersei’s impulse itself was not some fluke: her weakness for Valyrian looks reminiscint of Rhaegar was known to Varys and this was used at the right time in the right way.
RATional VERSUS IMPULSIVE
First, let me show what an actual rationalized choice looks like from Cersei’s POV. On the night of the discovery of Tywin’s death, Cersei decides on impulse to make Jaime Hand. But he rebuffs her in front of everyone else – Qyburn, Kevan, the Kettlebacks. When her mind shifts from Jaime to Kevan, we get her thought process on it.
The next Hand will know his place, she promised herself. It would have to be Ser Kevan. Her uncle was tireless, prudent, unfailingly obedient. She could rely on him, as her father had. The hand does not argue with the head. She had a realm to rule, but she would need new men to help her rule it. Pycelle was a doddering lickspittle, Jaime had lost his courage with his sword hand, and Mace Tyrell and his cronies Redwyne and Rowan could not be trusted. (aFfC, Cersei I)
But Kevan refuses to be Hand with Cersei as regent. Later, Cersei spitballs the notion of making Lord Orton Merryweather Hand, or the pyromancer Lord Hallyne. But eventually she picks Lord Harys Swyft: to be her hostage to prevent Kevan from acting against her (after he let slip to both her and Jaime that he knows of their incest and that Tommen is their child).
Ser Harys had been thrilled by his appointment, too dim to realize that he was more hostage than Hand. His daughter was her uncle’s wife, and Kevan loved his chinless lady, flat-chested and chicken-legged as she was. So long as she had Ser Harys in hand, Kevan Lannister must needs think twice about opposing her. To be sure, a good-father is not the ideal hostage, but better a flimsy shield than none. (aFfC, Cersei IV)
This contrasts with the happenstance manner in which Lord Rosby ends up being Master of Coin. After Twyin’s burial ceremony, Mace Tyrell approaches Cersei and mentions that Garth Tyrell is on his way to Oldtown to sail for King’s Landing, accepting Tywin’s offer to make Garth the new Master of Coin. Cersei had no knowledge of this, nor does she want a Tyrell on her council. She blurts and lies on the spot that she asked Lord Rosby to be the Master of Coin and that he has accepted. Lord Gyles Rosby was the first name that came to mind, likely because she had noticed him coughing during the ceremony (and was irritated by it). After having lied about it to Mace Tyrell, she now felt forced to actually make Lord Rosby Master of Coin. So, she invited Lord Gyles Rosby to a ride in her litter after the funeral to offer him the position and presses him that if anyone asked he should claim that he joined the council a day earlier. When Kevan Lannister confronts her over her choice of Lord Rosby, later on, she defensively comes up with a litany of superficial arguments on the spot to make it appear as if she pondered it. And yet those were never her true reasons and are quite absurd: he has a wealthy estate, so he must know how to count and make money.
Cersei’s defense to Jaime over her rumored choice of Aurane Waters is similarly superficial.
[…] Cersei tossed her hair back, and said, “Waters is well suited to the office. He has spent half his life on ships.”
“Half his life? He cannot be more than twenty.”
“Two-and-twenty, and what of it? Father was not even one-and-twenty when Aerys Targaryen named him Hand. It is past time Tommen had some young men about him in place of all these wrinkled greybeards. Aurane is strong and vigorous.”
Strong and vigorous and handsome, Jaime thought. . . . she’s been fucking Lancel and Osmund Kettleblack and Moon Boy for all I know . . . “Paxter Redwyne would be a better choice. He commands the largest fleet in Westeros. Aurane Waters could command a skiff, but only if you bought him one.”
“You are a child, Jaime. Redwyne is Tyrell’s bannerman, and nephew to that hideous grandmother of his. I want none of Lord Tyrell’s creatures on my council.” (aFfC, Jaime II)
Her defense on Aurane as a choice compares to her defense of picking Gyles Rosby for “lord treasurer”, or Orton Merryweather as Hand – superficial uninformed non-reasons. It has the hallmark of impulse, rather than calculated strategy. All she knows of him are his looks, his age and that he is a sailor. Sure, her argument for not wanting any of Mace Tyrell’s family or bannermen on her council is in a certain light a valid reason for why she would not pick Paxter Redwyne, but it certainly fails to be a reason why it should be Aurane instead. Moreover, we saw Cersei use that very same reason when she impulsively picked Rosby in order to refuse Garth Tyrell. And since her discussion with Jaime on the various other men for the different jobs all involve irrational, impulsive choices, her impulsive choice of Aurane fits the pattern and dialogue.
A TEEN CRUSH
Jaime suspects that Cersei picked Aurane purely for his looks and that she is sexually attracted to him. Jaime is not wrong about that suspicion.
Seen up close, his hair was more silvery than gold, and his eyes were grey-green where Prince Rhaegar’s had been purple. Even so, the resemblance . . . She wondered if Waters would shave his beard for her. Though he was ten years her junior, he wanted her; Cersei could see it in the way he looked at her. (aFfC, Cersei IV)
Cersei has the thoughts of a mesmerized young woman in heat here. And her thoughts when she sees him in Cersei III, during the wedding feast, is little different.
The other cousin, Elinor, was sharing a cup of wine with the handsome young Bastard of Driftmark, Aurane Waters. It was not the first time the queen had made note of Waters, a lean young man with grey-green eyes and long silver-gold hair. The first time she had seen him, for half a heartbeat she had almost thought Rhaegar Targaryen had returned from the ashes. It is his hair, she told herself. He is not half as comely as Rhaegar was. His face is too narrow, and he has that cleft in his chin. The Velaryons came from old Valyrian stock, however, and some had the same silvery hair as the dragonkings of old. (aFfC, Cersei III)
Thrice she thinks of his handsomeness, his youth, his vigour, and she projects desire onto him (for her). She picked him, because she desires him, and she desires him, because he reminds her of Rhaegar Targaryen, despite the different details such as eye-color, shade of silver, chin cleft and beard.
Strangely enough, her thoughts also betray that this is truly the first time that she is close enough to Aurane to study his features better. This implies that unlike Cersei asking Rosby to accept her offer to be part of her small council, she did not even ask Aurane personally, let alone privately.
These quotes aslo reveal how little Cersei knows Aurane. During the wedding celebration, she acknowledges this is not the first time she noticed him, and then immediately thinks of the first time she saw him, which would have been the time he bent the knee to Joffrey in aCoK, Sansa VIII. While the reader can assume she has seen him at court after aCoK, she does not reminisce on those moments, nor is there direct textual evidence of that. We just know that this is another time that she pays attention to him, from afar. We can, however, conclude from her thoughts in Cersei IV, the Small Council is actually the first time she interacts with him, because it is only now that she has the opportunity to study him “up close”.
In other words, Cersei noticed and watched Aurane like a 14-year old freshman teen smitten with a junior or senior, whom she admires from afar. Basically, Cersei has a crush on Aurane, and it has little to do with Aurane himself. It all has to do with her limerance for Rhaegar in her youth.
The fact that Cersei only getes to study Aurane up close for the first time at the Small Council, after she already appointed him Admiral, implies that the manner in which she appointed him and he accepted was via a third party. She may have invited Rosby into her private carriage to ask him to be her treasurer, but she did not go about it in this manner with Aurane. While this seems strange – and it certainly is not common Cersei behaivor – it certainly fits the scenario behavior of having a crush.
Taena’s RUMOR MILL
There is another paradox with the scene when Cersei notices Aurane at the wedding feast. Cersei saw Aurane share wine with Margaery’s cousin Elinor Tyrell – the pretty, willowy and flowered flirt, despite being betrothed.
Shortly before Cersei notices Aurane sharing his wine with Elinor Tyrell, Taena Merryweather had informed Cersei about her handmaid Senelle meeting with Margaery’s cousins, inluding Elinor, allegedly to pass information about Cersei onto Margaery.
“Senelle?” Sudden fury twisted in the queen’s belly. Was there no one she could trust? “You are certain of this?”
“Have her followed. Margaery never meets with her directly. Her cousins are her ravens, they bring her messages. Sometimes Elinor, sometimes Alla, sometimes Megga. All of them are as close to Margaery as sisters. They meet in the sept and pretend to pray. Put your own man in the gallery on the morrow, and he will see Senelle whispering to Megga beneath the altar of the Maiden.” (aFfC, Cersei III)
Kevan’s social interaction with Garlan Tyrell during Tommen’s wedding – where everyone is expected to be amical with one another – triggers Cersei’s paranoia.
Her uncle’s place was empty. The queen finally found him in a corner, talking intently with Mace Tyrell’s son Garlan. What do they have to talk about? The Reach might call Ser Garlan gallant, but she trusted him no more than Margaery or Loras. She had not forgotten the gold coin that Qyburn had discovered beneath the gaoler’s chamber pot. A golden hand from Highgarden. And Margaery is spying on me. (aFfC, Cersei III)
Cersei thinks ill of any of the men interacting with Margaery and her cousins, except Aurane. She is paranoid of her own kin talking with a Tyrell. But she never is over Aurane, despite seeing him talk with the flirty Elinor. In fact, in the small council chapter she considers everyone present as completely on her side.
My councillors. Cersei had uprooted every rose, and all those beholden to her uncle and her brothers. In their places were men whose loyalty would be to her. She had even given them new styles, borrowed from the Free Cities; the queen would have no “masters” at court beside herself. Orton Merryweather was her justiciar, Gyles Rosby her lord treasurer. Aurane Waters, the dashing young Bastard of Driftmark, would be her grand admiral. (aFfC, Cersei IV)
While Cersei’s crush on Aurane might help her want to believe he’ll only be loyal to her, despite seeing him drink a cup of wine with a pretty flirt of the “enemy” at a feast, it is unlikely she would believe this without someone else reassuring her that Aurane is not one of those hanging out with Margaery and her cousins. And this must have occurred, before Jaime overheard the rumor that Cersei picked Aurane to be her Master of Ships – between Cersei III and Jaime II .
“There is talk that you mean to make Aurane Waters the master of ships.”
“Has someone been informing on me?” When he did not answer, Cersei tossed her hair back, and said, “Waters is well suited to the office. He has spent half his life on ships.” (aFfC, Jaime II)
The fact that Cersei asks Jaime who has been gossiping confirms Cersei did mention it to someone. Tyrion told three different men three different versions of who he wanted princess Myrcella to betrothe to discover who of those three would betray his confidence to Cersei. When Cersei protested against Dorne, he knew Pycelle had been the blabbermouth and had him locked up in the black cells. The rumor about Aurane is not a ploy bt Cersei to unmask an informant. Nevertheless, she distrusts Jaime after this even more.
So, who reassured Cersei about Aurane’s loyalty? Who spread the rumor? And who was the go between to ask or inform Aurane of his promotion to become Admiral?
The most logical person would have been Taena Merryweather. Sometime soon after the wedding feast, Cersei asked Margaery whether Taena could be her companion, and Margaery was happy to oblige. By the time that Jaime confronts Cersei about her choices of friends and small council appointments, including Aurane, Cersei and Taena have become thick as thieves. She truly considered making Orton Merryweather her Hand to please Taena and bind her to her.
“Robert gave [their lands] back. Some, at least. Taena would be pleased if Orton could recover the rest.”
“Is this about pleasing some Myrish whore? Here I thought it was about governing the realm.” (aFfC, Jaime II)
When Cersei defends Taena to Jaime, she points out Taena’s usefulness as a double spy. Taena feeds Margaery false and sometimes true information and in return Taena tells Cersei about Margaery and other interesting revelations about the Tyrells.
“Margaery is not half so clever as she thinks. She has no notion what a sweet serpent she has in that Myrish slut. I use Taena to feed the little queen what I want her to know. Some of it is even true.” Cersei’s eyes were bright with mischief. “And Taena tells me everything Maid Margaery is doing.” […] “I know she is a mother, with a young son that she wants to rise high in this world. She will do whatever is required to see that he does. Mothers are all the same. Lady Merryweather may be a serpent, but she is far from stupid. She knows I can do more for her than Margaery, so she makes herself useful to me. You would be surprised at all the interesting things she’s told me.” (aFfC, Jaime II)
If Taena informed Margaery about Cersei picking Aurane, then this explains why it became gossip and Jaime learned of it. And it explains why Cersei does not press who informed on her to Jaime. Cersei knows perfectly well she told Taena and that it was Taena who slipped it to Margaery, which is why she comes to distrust Jaime even more and sends him away to deal with the siege of Riverrun.
Given that Cersei has a crush on Aurane, I propose the following scenario. Cersei inquired with Taena Merryweather as innocent as she could whether Aurane was a regular visitor to Margaery or her cousins. Taena assured her that Aurane was not a courtier to either Margaery or Elinor. When Taena asked “Why?” (likely in a teasing confidential tone), Cersei improvized an alternative motive for her inquisitiveness: she was considering to make him master of ships on her council. Taena made sure it became a rumor. When Jaime asked Cersei about it, not only did it reveal to her the rumor mill, but she would conclude that the gossip would have reached Aurane’s ears too, undoubtedly creating a binding expectation. Jaime’s disapproval strengthened Cersei’s pride and resolve to make Aurane Waters her admiral indeed.
This is how we end up with a situation that reeks of impsulsiveness, based on a crush, and installing that said crush at her small council without having spoken or met the man in question up close before.
Luck or set-up?
So, was it a stroke of luck for Varys that Aurane became Admiral, almost entirely dependent on Cersei’s impulsiveness and desires. Or was Cersei set up to believe it was all her own idea and desires?
Well, what would have prompted Cersei to inquire after Aurane with Taena Merryweather in the first place? He shared wine with flirty Elinor at the feast, after Taena already had thrown suspicion on Margaery and her hens for spying on Cersei. And he has Targaryen feaetures, reminding Cersei of Rhaegar. And if indeed Taena started the rumor mill about Cersei considering to make Aurane her admiral, then she manipulated Cersei into the decision, while making Cersei believe it was all her own happenstance doing and make Aurane the least suspect.
Cersei may be impulsive, but to a man like Varys she is also predictable and Taena is skilled and inventive enough to seize or create any opportunity to make it happen. Aurane’s Valyrian features that he has in common with Rhaegar was always part of the lure. If there was ever anyone that Cersei was smitten with, aside from Jaime, it was Rhaegar.
She was ten when she finally saw her prince in the flesh, at the tourney her lord father had thrown to welcome King Aerys to the west. […] Seventeen and new to knighthood, Rhaegar Targaryen had worn black plate over golden ringmail when he cantered onto the lists. Long streamers of red and gold and orange silk had floated behind his helm, like flames. […] By night the prince played his silver harp and made her weep. When she had been presented to him, Cersei had almost drowned in the depths of his sad purple eyes. He has been wounded, she recalled thinking, but I will mend his hurt when we are wed. Next to Rhaegar, even her beautiful Jaime had seemed no more than a callow boy. (aFfC, Cersei V)
Even in Cersei’s memory, beautiful Jaime was but a callow boy. She drowned in Rhaegar’s eyes and his harp play could make her weep. She wept at the end of the tourney at Lannisport when there was no final feast to celebrate her fantasy betrothal to Rhaegar. At the time, Cersei was ten and Varys was still in Essos. But Tywin did not give up on hoping for a royal match. He brought Cersei (born in 266 AC) to court when she was twelve, refusing any other marriage offer. So, Cersei began to live in the Red Keep in 278 AC, the same year that Aerys II hired Varys, a year before Rhaegar’s betrothal to Elia Martell. Varys was not just privy to Tywin’s intentions. He witnessed young Cersei being smitten with Rhaegar, while both Cersei and Rhaegar lived at the Red Keep.
Many a night she had watched Prince Rhaegar in the hall, playing his silver-stringed harp with those long, elegant fingers of his. Had any man ever been so beautiful? He was more than a man, though. His blood was the blood of old Valyria, the blood of dragons and gods. (aFfC, Cersei V)
Cersei never forgave Robert for killing handsome Rhaegar, making clear how much Cersei desired Rhaegar. Varys was present throughout to take note of it. So, even though Cersei’s thinking and decision making was impulsive and utterly based on Aurane’s looks from afar, none should be taken as coincidental.
Conclusion (tl;tr)
I propose that Varys recruited Aurane for team Aegon, shortly after Aurane’s capture at the Battle of the Blackwater, because he knew which ancestral pride and loyalty buttons to push by reminding him of Alyn Oakenfist, a loyal bastard of Driftmark, while Varys told Aurane a tale of a Targaryen princess with three dragons in Qarth believed to be on her way to Pentos. After that it was a waiting game. With Tywin dead and Kevan refusing to be Hand with Cersei as regent, it was the opportune time to have Cersei notice handsome, dashing Aurane, again. With Taena’s help, Cersei was reassured Aurane was not connected to the Tyrell court, her uncle or her brother, and Cersei appointed Aurane as admiral. By then, Varys trusted Aurane enough to enlighten him about the Golden Company’s expected coming. Plans were afoot to send both Tyrion and Aegon to Volantis, where Illyrio and everyone else expected Dany to show up with her dragons. And so, the Golden Company had begun its march to Volantis. It was time for Aurane to prepare Westeros for their homecoming.
