Tag: Aegon VI Targaryen

(Top illustration – Storm’s End by ryandero)

“If Storm’s End is so impregnable, how do you mean to take it?” asked Malo.
“By guile.” (aDwD, The Griffin Reborn)

Capturing Storm’s End

The riddles and potential mysteries of the identities of the Ragtag of Exiles tends to steal the show when it comes to reader discussions about any of their characters (including by yours truly). But there is more to the Ragtag of Exiles than secret identities. While Mace left the siege on Storm’s End to support his daughter Margaery in King’s Landing, Aegon and Jon Connington arrive at Cape Wrath and begin to capture castle after castle. At the end of Jon Connington’s second chapter in aDwD, the Griffin Reborn, Jon Connington reveals that he intends to take Storm’s End with guile.

“We did not cross half the world to wait. Our best chance is to strike hard and fast, before King’s Landing knows who we are. I mean to take Storm’s End. A nigh-impregnable stronghold, and Stannis Baratheon’s last foothold in the south. Once taken, it will give us a secure fastness to which we may retreat at need, and winning it will prove our strength.” (aDwD, The Griffin Reborn)

Both Jon Connington, Mace Tyrell and Arianne admit that one cannot just conquer Storm’s End.

“Here.” Pycelle pointed with a spotted hand. Where the sleeve of his robe rode up, a flap of pale flesh could be seen dangling beneath his forearm. “Here and here. All along the coast, and on the islands. Tarth, the Stepstones, even Estermont. And now we have reports that Connington is moving on Storm’s End.”
“If it is Jon Connington,” said Randyll Tarly.
“Storm’s End.” Lord Mace Tyrell grunted the words. “He cannot take Storm’s End. Not if he were Aegon the Conqueror. And if he does, what of it? Stannis holds it now. Let the castle pass from one pretender to another, why should that trouble us? I shall recapture it after my daughter’s innocence is proved.” (aDwD, Epilogue)

Aegon and Jon Connington “capturing” Storm’s End would be a first ever.

• Gyles III Gardener besieged the castle for two years and failed.
• The Andals tried to besiege and attack it seven times during their invasion, but had to give up.
• Orys Baratheon was only able to take it, because Argilac the Arrogant chose open battle against Aegon’s army commander in the Stormlands, instead of using his foolproof defenses. After Argilac’s defeat, the people inside of Storm’s End delivered Argilac’s daughter to Orys along with the castle.
• Stannis did manage to force a surrender of Storm’s End in aCoK, but only because he had the castellan Cortnay Penrose assassinated and Cortnay’s second in command was correctly assessed not to be a hardline loyalist to Renly.

Arianne’s descriptions of Storm’s End’s batttlements clarifies why it is impervious to an armed attack.

Storm’s End. This griffin is a bold one, it would seem. Or else a fool. The seat of House Baratheon for three centuries, of the ancient Storm Kings for thousands of years before that, Storm’s End was said by some to be impregnable. Arianne had heard men argue about which was the strongest castle in the realm. Some said Casterly Rock, some the Eyrie of the Arryns, some Winterfell in the frozen north, but Storm’s End was always mentioned too. Legend said it was raised by Brandon the Builder to withstand the fury of a vengeful god. Its curtain walls were the highest and strongest in all the Seven Kingdoms, forty to eighty feet in thickness. Its mighty windowless drum tower stood less than half as tall as the Hightower of Oldtown, but rose straight up in place of being stepped, with walls thrice as thick as those to be found in Oldtown. No siege tower was tall enough to reach Storm’s End battlements; neither mangonel nor trebuchet could hope to breech its massive walls. Does Connington think to mount a siege? She wondered. How many men can he have? Long before the castle fell, the Lannisters would dispatch an army to break any such siege. That way is hopeless too. (tWoW, Arianne II)

Discussing this particular plan of Jon Connington comes with a huge SPOILER ALERT. Via Arianne’s sample chapters for tWoW, George let the cat out of the bag on whether Jon Connington succeeded or not. So, if you do not wish to know this yet, then this essay is not for you, and you must stop reading now!

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At the end of Arianne’s second chapter for tWoW, halfmaester Haldon reveals that Aegon Targaryen and Jon Connington have captured Storm’s End.

“We have rooms prepared for you and yours, princess,” this Halden said, when the introductions finally ran their course. “I trust that they will suit. I know you seek Lord Connington, and he desires words with you as well, most urgently. If it please you, on the morrow there will be a ship to take you to him.”
“Where?” demanded Arianne.
“Has no one told you?” Halden Halfmaester favored her with a smile thin and hard as a dagger cut. “Storm’s End is ours. The Hand awaits you there.” (tWoW, Arianne II)

The sample chapters are of course not necessarily the finalized plot. It is possible George may rewrite the plot outcome, or maybe he intends to have us witness the capture of Storm’s End via Connington’s POV. But for now the conclusion is that Jon Connington and Aegon managed to capture Storm’s End, while Mace Tyrell was in King’s Landing for his daughter’s trial. The question is how? We are certain it could only have been done with deception, but which one?

There have been some proposals by readers in the past, which this essay will summarize and evaluate. In doing so, we end up reexamining certain information and potential opportunities as well as anomalies, which help us come to a prediction on alliances that have been set up and in some cases already in action since the Battle of the Blackwater.

Index

• Ramsay’s trick
  • What is a token force?
  • Who knows who?
    • Outside Storm’s End
    • Inside Storm’s End
    • House Estermont, the Turtle and the Leopard
• The Smuggler’s Route
  • A Likely Profile
  • Arguments for a Fleet
  • The Valyrian
• Proposal – Amalgam of Battleships

Ramsay’s Trick

In aCoK, Ramsay tricks both Theon and Rodrik Cassel into regarding him as their ally coming to the rescue. Ser Rodrik believed Ramsay came to Winterfell with the Dreadfort men to help him retake Winterfell. But Ramsay routed and killed the host that Cassel assembled. Theon knew Ramsay as Reek, a turncloak who promised to help him if he let him go. When he saw Reek return with the Dreadfort men and attack Cassel’s host outside the walls of Winterfell, Theon opened the gates to him, only to be taken captive.

Like Ramsay, Jon Connington has to deceive two parties:

1. the host led by Lord Rowan who continue the siege of Storm’s End outside the walls of Storm’s End
2. and the men inside Storm’s End that are loyal to Stannis Baratheon.

Hence, some have proposed that Jon Connington will trick Mathis Rowan into believing he is an ally, allowing the Golden Company to get close enough to take out Mace Tyrell’s token force. This in turn would convince the men inside Storm’s End that Jon Connington came to their aid and rescue, and they open the gates for Jon Connington and the Golden Company.

There are several issues with this proposal or problems that need to be resolved:

• The mentioned “token force” of Lord Rowan Mathis is underestimated in numbers.
• Ramsay’s trick relied on both armed men outside and inside Winterfell to assume either he or his forces were allies.

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What is a token force?

Lord Rowan’s “token army” must be understood in relation to the number of forces that Mace Tyrell originally sieged with, before he returned to King’s Landing.

At the Blackwater, the Tyrells had an army of 70000. That host was then split into three.

• Tarly took a good deal to root out the wolves in Duskendale, bring back order in Maidenpool and secure the kingsroad in the northern Crownlands and eastern Riverlands. That army was large enough to motivate the High Sparrow and the Faith Militant into handing Maergaery back into Randyll’s care (Lord Tarly was the first to arrive back at King’s Landing).
• After the wedding of Margaery and Tommen, Garlan Tyrell and Olenna Redwyne took half of the remaining army – excluding Randyll Tarly’s – back to the Reach.
• Mace took the rest with him to besiege Storm’s End. This would be a third of the original 70000 host and roughly means between 20 000 to 30 000.

Given that Mace Tyrell raced back to King’s Landing once he learned of his daughter’s arrest, we can surmise that Mace took cavalry and heavy lance with him to King’s Landing, while he have left behind foot and bowmen.

So, how many of those twenty to thirty thousand would be infantry? After Renly’s assassination and Tarly’s slaughter of Florent liegemen at Bitterbridge (as a “precaution” that they would not follow their Lord into turning their cloak for Stannis), it was estimated that there were at least 58000 foot in total at Bitterbridge, without the 10000 soldiers that Tyrell held back at Highgarden. If we divide that by three, give or take that would mean about 16000 foot at Storm’s End. It would need to be large enough for Mace to believe that Stannis’ 200 inside Storm’s End can remain cut off from the rest of the mainland and food supply, even after Paxter Redwyne left the area and does not police the seaside of Shipbreaker’s Bay anymore and he is in King’s Landing with his horse.

My intent is not to make an exact estimate. George can play around with the numbers, and likely will do so, but basically my point here is that Rowan’s “token” army of foot and bowmen at Storm’s End could be anywhere between 5000 to 10000 men. My point here is that what is a “token” force to Mace Tyrell could be as large as Robb Stark’s whole army he took south of Moat Cailin with him, or as large as the complete Golden Company. So, that would make Jon Connington’s company at best even numbered to Rowan’s. Meanwhile the Battle of Winterfell were 600 Dreadfort men against Rodrik’s 2000.

The numbers of Lord Rowan’s “token” force as well as the confirmed half of the Golden Company that landed at Cape Wrath far better resembles the Battle of Oxcross, where Ser Stafford Lannister trained men for the Lannister host, including about 4000 veterans of Forley Prester.

But even if Jon Connington could, attacking Rowan’s host would risk great number of casualties on Jon Connington’s side, which he cannot afford to lose. His aim is to grow in size, not shrink.

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Who knows who?

Outside Storm’s End

Ser Rodrik Cassel would have distrusted Dreadfort men if he knew Ramsay to be their commander, but Cassel believed Ramsay killed and Reek to be inside Winterfell (either a prisoner, dead or turncloak to Theon). In Rodrik Cassel’s eyes, the men wearing the flayed man of House Bolton were back to being vassals of Winterfell with their lord warring south for Robb, especially since Roose Bolton had helped Robb succeed in taking Riverrun with his “self-sacrificing” Battle of the Green Fork. So, Rodrik and his several thousand men naturally believed the flayed men to be allies. This was the reason why the Dreadfort 600 were allowed to approach and mingle in the first place.

Storm’s End sits on the highest point of the cliff called Darren’s Point. This cliff has been historically deforrested since the Age of Heroes, if not the Dawn Age, or at least since the founding of Storm’s End. There is no physical manner for Jon Connington to approach the castle unseen overland, the way Robb led his 6000 passed the Golden Tooth via a goat trail to then descend on Stafford without warning. Hence, this is why readers argue that Jon Connington will boldly approach and Lord Rowan mistakes him to be an ally.

But in aFfC Aurane Waters and later on Cersei spread the false rumor that the Golden Company broke its contract with Myr in support of Stannis’ claim. So, Mathis Rowan would not consider an approaching Golden Company an ally of his. Instead, readers point to Arianne’s observation about the Golden Company’s banners being easily mistaken for House Baratheon’s.

“Banners?” asked Arianne.
“Gold. On the gatehouse and the keep.”
“What device did they bear?”
“None that I could see, but there was no wind. The banners hung limp from their staffs.” That was vexing. The Golden Company’s banners were cloth-of-gold, devoid of arms and ornament… but the banners of House Baratheon were also gold, though theirs displayed the crowned stag of Storm’s End. Limp golden banners could be either. (tWoW, Arianne II)

If the golden cloth banners of the Golden Company could be mistaken for the golden banners of House Baratheon, perhaps Jon Connington could use this to trick Lord Rowan? Except, the sole Baratheon who could be an ally of the Tyrells and by extension Rowan Mathis would be King Tommen Baratheon, whose banners are half Lannister red with a lion. Meanwhile, Stannis’ banner has a red flaming heart.

So, while a limp golden banner of the Golden Company may resemble a limp golden banner of House Baratheon of Storm’s End, the issue is that House Baratheon of Storm’s End is dead and that neither side at Storm’s End, outside or inside its walls follwould recognize that banner as that of an ally.

Connington cannot fake House Rowan or Tyrell approaching either. Tyrell banners include gold, but on a green base. And House Rowan’s golden tree is on a silver background.

The banners of the castles the Golden Company took on Cape Wrath or House Estermont do not work as false flag either. Why would Lord Rowan of the Reach trust any of the Stormland houses anyway? Many have divided loyalties between Stannis and Cersei’s sons since the Blackwater, and went over to Stannis after Renly’s death.

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Inside Storm’s End

Let us assume that by some miracle somehow Jon Connington manages to attack Rowan’s host and win that battle with a limp golden banner ruse. Would that be enough for Storm’s End castellan to open his gates, the way Theon lowered the drawbridge for Ramsay? Unlike Theon, Ser Gilbert Farring never sent Jon Connington out to fetch reinforcements. Stannis’ castellan of Storm’s End, who commands the skeleton crew of 200, Ser Gilbert Farring does not know any of the sellswords, or Aegon or Jon Connington. Sure, Jon Connington may try to claim that Stannis hired the Golden Company to come to his man’s rescue. But why would Ser Gilbert Farring believe this claim? Because Stannis advized Ser Justin Massay to hire the Golden Company after he signed a contract with the Iron Bank?

“The Iron Bank has opened its coffers to me. You will collect their coin and hire ships and sellswords. A company of good repute, if you can find one. The Golden Company would be my first choice, if they are not already under contract. Seek for them in the Disputed Lands, if need be. But first hire as many swords as you can find in Braavos, and send them to me by way of Eastwatch. Archers as well, we need more bows.” (tWoW, Theon I)

Timeline wise, Jon Connington captured Storm’s End before Tycho Nestoris arrived at the crofter’s village at the ice lakes. Tycho mentions reports in Braavos of other sailors having seen strange sails at the Stepstones.

“Let us hope so. The narrow sea is perilous this time of year, and of late there have been troubling reports of strange ships seen amongst the Stepstones.”
“Salladhor Saan?”
“The Lysene pirate? Some say he has returned to his old haunts, this is so. And Lord Redwyne’s war fleet creeps through the Broken Arm as well. On its way home, no doubt. But these men and their ships are well-known to us. No, these other sails … from farther east, perhaps … one hears queer talk of dragons.” (aDwD, Jon IX)

But let us accept that events at the ice lakes near Winterell may coincide with Jon Connington marching for Storm’s End. Now what tend hostile forces ouside a castle’s wall to do in Westeros? Shoot down ravens. So, neither Stannis or close trusted knight of Stannis could have successfully sent a message by raven from the North to alert the castellan in Storm’s End about the possibility of the Golden Company being hired by Stannis.

That only leaves Cersei’s small council claims in aFfC about the Golden Company breaking its contract with Myr for Stannis Baratheon as an independent source to potentially corroborate Jon Connington shouting at Storm’s End gate that Stannis hired them to relieve them from the siege. Keep in mind that Cersei’s independent claim about this would have been relayed to Ser Gilbert Farring by either Mace Tyrell or Mathis Rowan during some parlay that would have had the taunting quality level  akin to “Your mother …”

So, how likely is that that Ser Gilbert Farring could be conned into believing this? House Farring is a knightly noble house of the Crownlands that has been loyal to Stannis Baratheon at least since burning of the Seven on Dragonstone (aCoK, Davos I). Just as Davos’ son squired for Stannis during the burning of the Seven, so did Gilbert’s son Bryen.

Stannis Baratheon strode forward like a soldier marching into battle. His squires stepped up to attend him. Davos watched as his son Devan pulled a long padded glove over the king’s right hand. The boy wore a cream-colored doublet with a fiery heart sewn on the breast. Bryen Farring was similarly garbed as he tied a stiff leather cape around His Grace’s neck. […] The red woman remained a moment to watch as Devan knelt with Byren Farring and rolled up the burnt and blackened sword in the king’s leather cloak. (aCoK, Davos I)

In other words, Ser Gilbert Farring and his house are as loyal to Stannis as Davos Seaworth is. Not only is Ser Gilbert’s son a squire of Stannis who joined him on his cold march to Winterfell. His cousin is Ser Godry Giantslayer Farring, who is part of Stannis’ close knit war counsil, a King’s Men rather than a Queen’s Men. And though brutish in some ways, at least Ser Godry is not goaded into mistakes much. Gilbert’s son Bryen died at the crofter’s village from starvation and cold, while soldiers of House Peasebury committed cannibalism and were conndemned to burn for it. One of them attempts to goad Godry into killing him by insulting his dead nephew.

The oldest of the four had been their serjeant. He alone remained defiant, spitting venom at the queen’s men as they prodded him along with their spears. “Fuck you all, and fuck your red god too,” he said. “You hear me, Farring? Giantslayer? I laughed when your fucking cousin died, Godry. We should have eaten him too, he smelled so good when they roasted him. I bet the boy was nice and tender. Juicy.” A blow from a spear butt drove the man to his knees but did not silence him. When he rose he spat out a mouthful of blood and broken teeth and went right on. “The cock’s the choicest part, all crisped up on the spit. A fat little sausage.” Even as they wrapped the chains around him, he raved on. “Corliss Penny, come over here. What sort of name is Penny? Is that how much your mother charged? And you, Suggs, you bleeding bastard, you—” Ser Clayton never said a word. One quick slash opened the serjeant’s throat, sending a wash of blood down his chest. (aDwD, The Sacrifice)

It is Clayton Suggs who ends up killing the serjeant, while the Giantslayer can ignore the insults.

All in all, these men’s loyalty, fealty and service to Stannis cannot be doubted, nor are they inexperienced or naive like Theon Greyjoy. Without a bonafide confirmation by someone whom Ser Gilbert knows to have sacrificed and warred alongside Stannis the past two years, I do believe that Gilbert would be fooled into believing Jon Connington and the Golden Company to be on Stannis’ side, even after this hypothetical succesful massacring of Rowan’s host. I do not absolutely reject this idea that those inside Storm’s End may open the gates to Jon Connington. My point here is that we require a missing key figure that Ser Gilbert would know by sight as an ally of Stannis.

Of interesting note here though is that the second in command of Storm’s End is the same one under the previous castellan Cortnay Penrose – Lord Elwood Meadows.

“Ser Cortnay’s lieutenant is cousin to the Fossoways. Lord Meadows, a green boy of twenty. Should some ill chance strike down Penrose, command of Storm’s End would pass to this stripling, and his cousins believe he would accept my terms and yield up the castle.” (aCoK, Davos II)

Indeed, Lord Meadows yielded Storm’s End to Stannis swiftly, after Penrose’s death. He is like to do this again, if Ser Gilbert Farring was to come to an unfortunate calamity.

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House Estermont, The turtle and the leopard

Some readers consider the hostages that Jon Connington acquired as potential key characters for the deception. When Marq Mandrake happened to capture the island and seat of Estermont, Jon Connington decides that the nobles at House Estermont should be taken to the mainland as hostages.

“There should be ships on Estermont. It is an island. Haldon, send word to Mandrake to leave a garrison behind and bring the rest of his men over to Cape Wrath, along with any noble captives.”
“As you command, my lord. House Estermont has blood ties to both kings, as it happens. Good hostages.” (aDwD, The Griffin Reborn)

Could House Estermont impact the 200 men inside Storm’s End and Rowan’s “token” host? Officially, House Estermont has blood ties to both Stannis and Tommen Baratheon – lady Cassana Estermont was Robert’s and Stannis’ mother who drowned along with her husband Steffon at Shipbreaker’s Bay. This makes her the paternal grandmother of Tommen Baratheon in the minds of most. Lord Eldon Estermont is either a brother or uncle to the late Cassana (see Estermont family tree), and thus uncle or great-uncle of Stannis. He bent the knee to Joffrey after being captured at the Blackwater, as did his heir Ser Aemon and grandson Ser Alyn. Both were still in King’s Landing supporting Tommen I in aFfC. So, Lord Mathis Rowan might assume Lord Estermont an ally and believe whatever he claims, not believing the lord would risk the lives of his heir and grandson in King’s Landing.

Interesting enough, Eldon’s brother (or other son), Ser Lomas, is one of the two hundred inside Storm’s End. While Lord Eldon was captured at the Blackwater by the Lannisters and Tyrells, his brother Lomas escaped the battle with Stannis. It is therefore possible, Lomas at least may be persuaded to believe that Eldon and Jon Connington are on Stannis’ side, after tricking Lord Rowan and his token force. It should be noted though, that Lomas is not the castellan or even second-in-command inside Storm’s End.

At the very least, I can see why Jon Connington might end up believing Lord Estermont could be of use to try and trick Lord Rowan as well as Ser Lomas, once Jon Connington has sufficient information on House Estermont’s division. The fact that Arianne has not encounterd any of the Estermont hostages during her tour of the captured seats at Cape Wrath at the very least points to them having been taken to Storm’s End.

If House Estermont may not be as big as a strategical advantage for Aegon and Jon as some readers hope or propose them to be, the taking of Greenstone’s House has symbolic significance: their sigil is that of a green sea turtle on a green field.

The turtle has been featured in Aegon’s arc before: when Tyrion journeys the river Rhoyne aboard the Shy Maid, they witness a giant horned turtle The Old Man of the River surface and bellow at them. To the Rhoynar, this species of turtle were gods or the consort of the river goddess. While the migrated Martells converted from Rhoynish beliefs to that of the Faith, the Dornish orphans who are descendents of the Rhoynar smallfolk did not. So, when this horned turle as big as a boat greets them, Yandry and Ysilla regards it as the god blessing them.

Some [turtles] were so large they could have borne a man upon their backs. Yandry swore the Rhoynar princes used to ride them across the river. He and his wife were Greenblood born, a pair of Dornish orphans come home to Mother Rhoyne. […] I shall, the dwarf was thinking, when he spied a rippling ahead not six yards from the boat. He was about to point it out to Lemore when it came to the surface with a wash of water that rocked the Shy Maid sideways. It was another turtle, a horned turtle of enormous size, its dark green shell mottled with brown and overgrown with water moss and crusty black river molluscs. It raised its head and bellowed, a deep-throated thrumming roar louder than any warhorn that Tyrion had ever heard. “We are blessed,” Ysilla was crying loudly, as tears streamed down her face. “We are blessed, we are blessed.”
Duck was hooting, and Young Griff too. Haldon came out on deck to learn the cause of the commotion … but too late. The giant turtle had vanished below the water once again. “What was the cause of all that noise?” the Halfmaester asked.
“A turtle,” said Tyrion. “A turtle bigger than this boat.”
“It was him,” cried Yandry. “The Old Man of the River.” And why not? Tyrion grinned. Gods and wonders always appear, to attend the birth of kings. (aDwD, Tyrion IV)

So, in the above scene, a giant turtle – who is regarded like a god by those of the Greenblood – “blessed” the mission of getting Aegon on the Iron Throne. In that sense, the unplanned taking of Greenstone’s House Estermont with a green turtle for a sigil is a reminder of this lucky blessing. Alternatively or additionally, the blessing of this Rhoynish god foreshadows House Martell supporting and allying themselves with Aegon.

The turtle has a special meaning to George RR Martin’s writing beyond that of aSoIaF. One of George’s first passions were comic book heroes. First he read them, then he published one of his first stories involving a superhero Doctor Weird, in a fanzine (Only Kids are Afraid in the Dark). And then in 1987 the first installment of the Wild Cards superhero stories were published. These stories are written by a collection of 40 authors, in the aftermath of a two year RPG campaign. George has been a primary editor since its inception. One of the superheroes or Aces is George’s creation: the Great and Powerful Turtle. In an alternate post-WWII world, an alien virus that alters DNA was introduced to earth: 90 % of those who contract it die, 9 % end up as Jokers with a disability and 1 % become the superheroic Aces. The Turtle is an Ace, but because he hides it is speculated that he may be a Joker.  Thomas Tudbury hides in plain sight in his everyday life quite easily because he looks like an average guy – plain, pudgy, overweight, glasses and inferiority complex. When he tries to catch the bad guys, he does so by using an old VW Beatle as armor, which he takes into the sky using telekinesis, which is so strong that he once lifted the 45 000 ton battleship New Jersey. The VW Beetle carcass that the Turtle flies acts like his armor. It helps Thomas to concentrate without interuption and use his telekinesis powers optimally. His friend and Thomas also strengthen the Beetle shell with stripped armor plate from battleships.

The first time, Thomas went on a rescue mission with the VW Beetle he got from his friend’s scrapyard, he referenced himself as the Great and Powerful Turtle.

A cop climbed up on top of his police car, holding a bullhorn, and began to hail him. Tom turned off the radio to hear better over the roar of the flames. He was telling Tom to land and identify himself, asking who he was, what he was. That was easy. Tom turned on the microphone. “I’m the turtle,” he said. The VW had no tires; in the wheel wells, Joey had rigged the most humongous speakers they could find, powered by the largest amp on the market. For the first time, the voice of the Turtle was heard in the land, a booming “I’M THE TURTLE,” echoing down the streets and alleys, a rolling thunder crackling with distortion. Except what he said didn’t sound quite right. Tom cranked the volume up even higher, injected a little more bass into his voice. “I AM THE GREAT AND POWERFUL TURTLE,” he announced to them all. (Wild Cards I – Shell Games, George RR Martin)

It is almost as if George lifted this Turtle scene from Shell Games and reworked it into the great horned turtle scene with the Shy Maid for aSoIaF. Note that the noun horn can mean both appendixes on the head as well as a sound magnifier. So, when the crew and people on the Shy Maid hoot at seeing the humongous turtle, his bellowing reply may as well have meant “HI, I AM THE GREAT AND POWERFUL TURTLE”. And with Yandry swearing that Rhoynar princes used to ride these gargantuan turtles, George is basically reshaping Aegon (a Rhoynar prince through his mother Elia Martell) into a hero, or Ace.

However, House Turtle wed a spotted leopard: Arianne’s friend Sylva Santagar was wed by her father to the old Lord Estermont, after Sylva’s involvement in the abduction of Myrcella which ended in Myrcella’s maiming. Sylva is nicknamed Spotted Sylva, because of her freckles in combination with House Santagar’s sigil – a spotted leopard with a golden axe over a bend sinister of blue and white. And of course this is defiitely an allusion to a leopard never changing his spots. When we combine this with the turtle symbolism, it seems to me that George is signaling that  no matter how much you raise someone to be a saintly savior Turtle and leader for the realm, some aspects are nature. Inherently the Iron Throne’s power corrupts, if not the one sitting on it or aspiring to sit on it, at the very least those the monarch surrounds themselves with, councilors, sponsors or wives. And it always starts with the ends justifying the means.

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The Smuggler route

A few have reasoned and proposed that somehow Jon Connington managed to get people inside Storm’s End without confronting Rowan’s host, via the very same route that Davos took to smuggle in onions and Mel when she birthed her shadow assassin. Paxter Redwyne’s fleet is long gone and not patrolling Shipbreaker’s Bay anymore. So, theoretically Storm’s End is open to being resupplied by a smuggler’s galley.

In these proposals the food carrying galley acts as a Trojan horse for the Golden Company. The right captain and ship might persuade Ser Gilbert Farring by sight that they came to the rescue on Stannis’s orders to save the brave and loyal men at Storm’s End from starving. Then once Ser Gilbert either goes onto the ship or allows the crew access into the castle, he ends up captured or killed, and his lieutenant the-ever-yielding Lord Meadows will hand over the castle to the invaders.

I tdo believe that the trojan-food-relief-by-ship is indeed the main key that leads to the “capture” of Storm’s End itself. It bypasses Rowan’s host, via a sea trail (instead of a goat trail), and would allow Aegon and Jon Connington to attack Rowan’s host from two sides:

• an army in plain sight going up the cliff
• and a sortie from Storm’s End in Lord Rowan’s rear.

Though even that may not be necessary. Lord Rowan of Goldengrove possibly bends the knee to Aegon the moment he realizes what predicament he is in.

The huge caveat here is that the Golden Company has no ships or captains of their own, nor are they sailors. They have to rely on a Westeros-allied crew. Usually, an Estermont cog is proposed for this mission. But there are several issues with this. Firstly, an Estermont cog is not likely to fit inside the cavern. Secondly, there is vast difference between the Golden Company making a potentially hostile crew sail them from Estermont to the landing place at Cape Wrath at sword point, and trusting this crew to sail them into Storm’s End while hiding in the hull. In the second scenario, the lives of the men of the Golden Company are entirely in the hands of potential enemies.

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A likely profile

We cannot assume that just every captain knows the cavernous access into Storm’s End, let alone how to navigate it with a ship. So, this proposal can only work if the Golden Company forges an alliance with a fleet or captain that

• the Golden Company can or will trust for 99 % with their lives,
• the 200 men holding Storm’s End for Stannis would trust,
• knows how to navigate the smuggler’s cavern.

One of the likeliest candidates to fit that profile would be Salladhor Saan. This smuggler and former good friend of Davos would know how to safely navigate a ship into Storm’s End. Imagine Ser Gilbert Farring peeping down the murder hole to check the identity of the men who were so bold to sail into the smuggler’s cavern. He sees Salladhor on the ship and the Lyseni pirate then loudly claims that Davos and Stannis sent him to gift them food and keep them from starving, then Ser Gilbert has no knowledge to distrust Salladhor. He does not know that Salladhor abandoned Stannis, does not know the pirate dropped Davos into dangerous waters to make it to the shore of the Sisters by himself, instead of White Harbor. In fact, Davos himself lied to Lord Godric Borrell about Salla’s loyalties.

When Davos did not answer, [Lord Borrell] rapped his spoon against the table. “The Lyseni. Torrent spied their sails from Littlesister, and before him the Flints from Widow’s Watch. Orange sails, and green, and pink. Salladhor Saan. Where is he?”
“At sea.” Salla would be sailing around the Fingers and down the narrow sea. He was returning to the Stepstones with what few ships remained him. Perhaps he would acquire a few more along the way, if he came upon some likely merchantmen. A little piracy to help the leagues go by. “His Grace has sent him south, to trouble the Lannisters and their friends.” The lie was one he had rehearsed as he rowed toward Sisterton through the rain. Soon or late the world would learn that Salladhor Saan had abandoned Stannis Baratheon, leaving him without a fleet, but they would not hear it from the lips of Davos Seaworth. (aDwD, Davos I)

An alliance with a Westerosi or Salla’s remaining fleet can solve a lot of issues for the Golden Company overall. At the time of Jon Connington’s taking of Griffin Roost, the landing seemed to have become a logistical nightmare. The fleet from Volantis dropped the Golden Company and their elephants off wherever they could in the Narrow Sea:

The Halfmaester had good tidings. “Word’s reached the camp from Marq Mandrake. The Volantenes put him ashore on what turned out to be Estermont, with close to five hundred men. He’s taken Greenstone.”
Estermont was an island off Cape Wrath, never one of their objectives. “The damned Volantenes are so eager to be rid of us they are dumping us ashore on any bit of land they see,” said Franklyn Flowers. “I’ll wager you that we’ve got lads scattered all over half the bloody Stepstones too.”
“With my elephants,” Harry Strickland said, in a mournful tone. (aDwD, The Griffin Reborn)

The Stepstones was indeed the pirate haunt that Salladhor Saan was gunning for when he last said his goodbyes to Davos. If you wonder about the timeline, Davos I of aDwD occurs well before the end of aFfC’s timeline. As Cat of the Canals, Arya learns of Saan returning to his pirate ways at the Stepstones.

A mate on the green galley wolfed half a dozen oysters and told her how his captain had been killed by the Lysene pirates who had tried to board them near the Stepstones. “That bastard Saan it was, with Old Mother’s Son and his big Valyrian. We got away, but just.” (aFfC, Cat of the Canals)

Salla went pirate with his remaining fleet at the Stepstones shortly before the Volantenese fleet dropped sections of the Golden Company off at this location. Most arguments and literary hints in the novels that foreshadow that Salla operates in support of the Golden Company will be covered in an essay specifically on him. For now, the profile and geographical match around the right time suffice to propose him as a realistic candidate with the opportunity and some means to help the Golden Company.

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Arguments for a Fleet

While potential allies for the Golden Company are regularly discussed – Dorne, the friends in the Reach – this rarely includes naval allies. But it is the most handy ally when your army and elephants are spread across the southern shores of the Narrow Sea and are in dire need to be unified quickly. If the Golden Company picked up such an alliance shortly after the initial landings on the southern shores of the Narrow Sea, then we should see hints to this.

The first hint is the claim the Golden Company took Tarth.

“Here.” Pycelle pointed with a spotted hand. […] “Here and here. All along the coast, and on the islands. Tarth, the Stepstones, even Estermont. And now we have reports that Connington is moving on Storm’s End.” (aDwD, Epilogue)

“Tarth has fallen too, some fisherfolk will tell you,” said Valena. “These sellswords now hold most of Cape Wrath and half the Stepstones. We hear talk of elephants in the rainwood.” (tWoW, Arianne I excerpt)

We are inclined to believe that the Volantenese ships dropped some of the Golden Company off on Tarth as haphazzardly as they did for Greenstone. Valena Toland’s referencing “strange sails” deepens this impression as it is a phrase we are bound to associate with the Volantenese fleet.

Valene to Arianne: “Since the Redwyne fleet passed through the Stepstones, those waters are crawling with strange sails, all the way north to the Straights of Tarth and Shipbreaker’s Bay.” (tWoW, Arianne I excerpt)

When we look at the map, however, there is a significant difference. Greenstone and the Stepstones lie en route to the beaches of Cape Wrath, Jon Connington’s intended destination. But Tarth and Shipbreaker’s Bay lie further north, well beyond Jon’s destination. If the Volantenese fleet delivered the Golden Company on such shores, they were seriously off course!

The fall storms of the Narrow Sea were one of the reasons that the Volantenese put the Golden Company ashore wherever they could as fast as possible. Now, Shipbreaker’s Bay is famous for its storms during any season, let alone fall or winter. Stannis’ father and mother perished with their ship in that Bay within view of Storm’s End. The legends of the first Durrandon building Storm’s End revolves around the stormy nature of that bay. This would be waters that the Volantenese would avoid. Of course, there is a chance that a storm sent some Volantenese ships off course. But it seems more likely that the “strange sails” in Shipbreaker’s Bay and around the waters of Tarth belong to a new seafaring ally, with far better knowledge, interests and ties into Shipbreaker’s Bay.

Indeed, Valena includes “Myrmen, Volantenese, Lyseni and reavers of the Iron Islands” under the banner of “strange sails” (tWoW, Arianne I excerpt). She also mentions a new pirate king, believed by many readers to be Aurane Waters with Cersei’s stolen fleet of dromonds.

Valena to Arianne: “A new pirate king has set up on Torturer’s Deep. The Lord of the Waters, he styles himself. This one has real warships, three-deckers, monstrous large.”  (tWoW, Arianne I excerpt)

George seems to deliberately muddy the waters here with confusing reports, as he already hinted through Jon Connington that he would do so to “bring allies to the cause”.

Jon Connington: “Let the Lannisters suspect Stannis Baratheon, pirates from the Stepstones, outlaws out of the woods, or whoever else they cared to blame. If the reports that reached King’s Landing were confused and contradictory, so much the better. The slower the Iron Throne was to react, the longer they would have to gather their strength and bring allies to the cause.” (aDwD, The Griffin Reborn)

So, Pycelle’s reports and Valena’s claims represent an altered geographical situation than the one during the Griffin Reborn, and it lends support to the idea of the Golden Company having an as of yet undisclosed but new naval ally, which thematically fits the Turtle symbolism of making his mode of transportation a shell of a VW Beetle with plate armor from various salvaged battleships.

Another strong indication for such an ally would be the speed at which the Golden Company and elephants are fully operational and conquer different sites with great distances between them, such as Tarth and indeed the taking of Storm’s End.

“We have rooms prepared for you and yours, princess,” this Halden said, when the introductions finally ran their course. “I trust that they will suit. I know you seek Lord Connington, and he desires words with you as well, most urgently. If it please you, on the morrow there will be a ship to take you to him.”
“Where?” demanded Arianne.
“Has no one told you?” Halden Halfmaester favored her with a smile thin and hard as a dagger cut. “Storm’s End is ours. The Hand awaits you there.” (tWoW, Arianne II, excerpt)

Arianne I and Arianne II were originally chapters written to be included in aDwD, just like Arya’s Mercy or Sansa’s Alayne in the Vale and so on. They were pulled, because the book was too large. If these and other chapters had been included, we would have ended the Meereen arc with what seemed a sure victory for Selmy, Tyrion and Victarion against the slavers, but also the news that Jon Connington had captured Storm’s End, instead of still marching for it. This means that after landing on the Stepstones, Greenstone and Cape Wrath, the Golden Company managed to conquer all of Cape Wrath and quickly widened the territory to include Storm’s End, Tarth and Shipbreaker’s Bay, within aDwD’s timeline. More, Aegon’s confidence in wanting to meet an oncoming army in the field outside of Storm’s End also points to him having the complete Golden Company at his disposal. This is only possible with swift ships that were sailing the Narrow Sea and captains without loyalty to either Cersei or Stannis that came to the Company’s aid after the Volantenese dropped them off.

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The Valyrian

While this mention of a ship to transport Arianne to Storm’s End seems not that important, in comparison to the news of Storm’s End having been taken, I am very curious to learn which captain will welcome Arianne aboard his ship in Arianne III – Aurane Waters on a renamed Lord Tywin or Sweet Cersei or Salladhor Saan on his great galleas Valyrian? Either one of these two will clarify a great many things almost instantly to the reader without George having to go into much detail. Certainly each of them fit in Arianne’s tendency to meet a string of Valyrian looking men:

1. Ser Gerold Darkstar Dayne in aFfC, The Queenmaker, with hair as a silver glacier (and a black streak), dark angry purple eyes. In Arianne’s mind he is the most handsome man of all Dorne and the cruelest moustache twirling rogue. Arianne believes that if she married him, their children would be as beautiful as dragonlords. It is covertly hinted in the same paragraph and the next that Arianne may have had an affair or encounter with Gerold in the past, and that she was infatuated with him once, having a preference for handsome bad men. The aWoIaF app also claims there were lovers once or twice. While Daynes are not known dragonlords, they do features physical traits that appear Valyrian and George has referred to Daynes as comparable to proto-Valyrian. In other words, these physical features of purple eyes and/or silver hair predate Valyaria and are part of their phenotype even as First Men.
2. Lysono Maar in tWoW, Arianne II excerpt. The spymaster of the Golden Company is from Lys where the Valyrian looks are the most prevalent, even amongst commoners, and so, Lysono has white-gold hair and lilac eyes. Another striking feature is people’s perception of Lysono’s gender identity and how they express or play with it, including painting their nails purple and wear noticeable jewelry from their ears. When Arianne meets Lysono outsde of Griffin’s Roost, she starts to say, “You look …”. Lysono finishes her sentence with “… like a woman?”. But Arianne corrects Lysono: “… like a Targaryen.” It is important to remember that Arianne’s cousin, the Sand Snake Sarella, studies in the guise of a young man at the Citadel in Oldtown, going by the name Alleras. In the essay on Haldon the Halfmaester, I argue that Alleras is most likely trans. Arianne may not fully understand it, but she is aware of it and seems to respects this as being an integral part of them. Given that Arianne is on her way to meet Jon Connington and Aegon Targaryen, recently learned she was supposed to marry Viserys Targaryen and was attracted to Ser Gerold Dayne with his proto-Valiryan looks, Arianne’s interest may indeed have genuinely been sparked more by Lysono’s Valyarian features than their gender fluid appearance. She wonders whether Viserys looked like Lysono, and indeed these two are the sole characters in the main* series described as having pale lilac eyes. Even when Arianne finds that something about Lysono makes her skin crawl, this is linked to Viserys Targaryen: that perhaps it is for the better that Viserys is dead then. And I am quite certain that most readers are glad he is dead.

* In Fire and Blood, the black bride Rhaena Targaryen and the father of Rhaenys the Queen who Never was, Aemon Targaryen are also described as having eyes pale as lilac.

So, in that sense, we should almost expect the captain who sails Arianne to Aegon to have Valyrian features or references in Arianne’s third chapter, before she meet Jon Connington and the Spider’s Aegon Targaryen.

• Salladhor Saan is also a Lyseni. His fair hair has gone completely white. There is no explicit mention of the colour of his eyes being in the purple range, but at the very least his galleas is Valyarian.
• The alternative escort would be Aurane Waters on one of the dromonds. His eyes are grey-green rather than purple, but he does have the silver-gold hair (though more silvery than gold) and reminds Cersei of Rhaegar, the supposed father of Aegon Targaryen and husband of Arianne’s aunt, Elia Martell.

Overall, we should expect plenty of Valyrian looking characters to flock to Aegon’s side, since he is set up as the poster boy Targaryen prince, who at the very least must look the part.

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Proposal – Amalgam of Battleships

So, to conclude, I propose that Aegon’s Golden Company acquired a fleet comprised of various prior factions, with each serving different purposes and varying degrees of loyalty:

• merchant cogs of Greenstone
• Aurane Waters and the dromonds he had Cersei fund to build and then stole from her
• Salladhor Saan’s last remaining galleas(es), with each serving a different purpose and having varying degrees of loyalty.

The order in which they became an ally may be surprising and for some goes a long way back. I believe for example that Aurane Waters was recruited by Varys shortly after his capture at the Blackwater; that Aurane proposed the dromond fleet to the small council with the intent to sail with them to welcome Aegon’s (and Dany’s) arrival at the Stepstones with it. He used the dromonds to gain control over the Stepstones from the pirates, including Salladhor Saan with the remainder of his swift fleet. His dromonds are made to transport large numbers of soldiers and even elephants, which the Volantenese fleet dropped off on the Stepstones.

Meanwhile, once outnumbered by Aurane’s dromonds, Salla agreed to sell his sails to the coming Golden Company in return for gold. He was the captain who uses Davos’ smuggle route into Storm’s End to trick Ser Gilbert into giving the Golden Company access into the formidable castle unwittingly. The cogs of Greenstone were commandeered and at some point manned with pirates from the Stepstones, who are under Aurane’s command, since he is the Lord of the Waters. These may have been used to approach Tarth and small coastal keeps without raising suspicion or alarm. But the true military strength and agility come from Aurane’s dromonds and Salla’s galleas.

This amalgam of battleships of various fleets from former and or rivaling claimants fits with the various allusions to George’s hero of the Turle of Wild Cards, and it continues Aegon’s story and perhaps even origin: he grew up on boat and traversed rivers all of his young life. We meet him for the first time as Young Griff, on a boat, the Shy Maid. Upon revealing himself to the Golden Company, the direction in which the Volantenese fleet sails determines Aegon’s next course: to Westeros instead of Slaver’s Bay. And so, it seems inevitable that his conquering of the Stormlands and potentially King’s Landing with the Iron Throne would involve a proper fleet. If Aegon is a pisswater prince of King’s Landing or a descendant of a bastard line of the Targaryens, then he basically is an Aegon Waters.

Of course I would never ask you to believe my claim without providing some literary evidence, especially with regards to Aurane and Salla. These I will provide in an essay for each separately.

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