In Illyrio’s Plan I went over some aspects of Illyrio’s story and claims. One of the biggest issues with understanding both Varys and Illyrio is that George has given us very little info on these men, and when these two men reveal something about themselves, it is almost always from a point of view of a character who mistrusts them: Dany, Eddard, Arya, Tyrion, … And we should distrust them to an extent. We have evidence that they plot war, use other people as tools for their own ends, and are not always forthcomnig with the full truth. Not only does George allow for large gaps for the reader to fill in the blanks. He has us question the veracity of anything they reveal about themselves.
Cherry Picking
Beneath his window six cherry trees stood sentinel around a marble pool, their slender branches bare and brown. A naked boy stood on the water, poised to duel with a bravo’s blade in hand. He was lithe and handsome, no older than sixteen, with straight blond hair that brushed his shoulders. So lifelike did he seem that it took the dwarf a long moment to realize he was made of painted marble, though his sword shimmered like true steel. (aDwD, Tyrion I).
Take the statue at Illyrio’s pool that Tyrion pays attention to for example. It became integral to the Blackfyre theory for its six cherry trees. So, that when Illyrio claims it portrays him when he was still youthful and slim and at his best as a bravo, a lot of readers dismiss it as a lie, and insist that it must be a statue of Aegon instead with his six cherry picked companions on the Shy Maid: JonCon, Lemore, Haldon, Duck, Ysilla and Yandry. The Blackfyre theory linked the cherry trees to the black cherries with sweet cream Illyrio eats and the cherries at the wedding feast at Whitewalls, where a secret Blackfyre hopes to rally lords for his claim, in A Knight of Seven Kingdoms, The Mysteryy Knight.
But it also ignores the mention of cherries or cherry with other characters. That does not mean there is no symbolism behind them, and that the interpretation is wrong. It just means that the Blackfyre theory itself is cherry picking, well, the cherries. They come in red, in black, in white, dried, with lemons, or apples. And there are other obvious wordplay not being considered. In the Mystery Knight, the feeding of cherries by the bride to her husband at the wedding is an innuendo to “popping her cherry“. Illyrio eating black cherries then could mean an innuendo to Illyrio loving Serra Blackfyre. Nor was it Aegon who cherry picked his companions, but Illyrio, and so the statue would then be Illyrio after all.
Overall, readers cherry pick what to believe what little Illyrio and Varys tell about themselves. If something does not fit the reader dismisses it as a lie without any evidence for the lie. But then you can make them be anything or anyone, except what they and George are telling you. Because when they lie about something, George usually reveals that. And when they tell the truth, we will see consistent and quite logical behavior from them.
Instead of focusing on cherries, perhaps we should compare what the statue depicts: a dueling bravo. Who else do we know in the books who was a bravo? Of course, Syrio Forel.
“Watching is not seeing, dead girl. The water dancer sees. Come, put down the sword, it is time for listening now.” (aGoT, Arya IV)
The first novel introduces us to Syrio Forel, once first sword to the Sealord of Braavos, where bravos duel at a moon pool. And he tells Arya the story on how he was picked by the Sealord to be the first, over all the other bravos that were stronger, faster, younger, …
“On the day I am speaking of, the first sword was newly dead, and the Sealord sent for me. Many bravos had come to him, and as many had been sent away, none could say why. When I came into his presence, he was seated, and in his lap was a fat yellow cat. He told me that one of his captains had brought the beast to him, from an island beyond the sunrise. ‘Have you ever seen her like?’ he asked of me. “And to him I said, ‘Each night in the alleys of Braavos I see a thousand like him,’ and the Sealord laughed, and that day I was named the first sword.” (aGoT, Arya IV)
Illyrio is a fat yellow cat, no?
“The cat was an ordinary cat, no more. The others expected a fabulous beast, so that is what they saw. How large it was, they said. It was no larger than any other cat, only fat from indolence, for the Sealord fed it from his own table. What curious small ears, they said. Its ears had been chewed away in kitten fights. And it was plainly a tomcat, yet the Sealord said ‘her,’ and that is what the others saw. Are you hearing?”
Arya thought about it. “You saw what was there.” (aGoT, Arya IV)
Take all the fanciful intricate exotic potential identities away from Illyrio and what we have is just an alley cat. We can come to a coherent, albeit speculative and diabolical, background story, choices and motive if we do take Illyrio’s words about himself at face value. It only becomes inconsistent, when we dismiss it.
One of the biggest reveals in that regard is the background story that Illyrio tells Tyrion on how team Valyrio operated in the criminal world of Pentos as street kids (plain old alley cat): golden hearted thieves who steal from lesser thieves (Varys) and return the stolen goods to the original owner for a fee (Illyrio). It seems almost too good to be true.
Now see what is there! Not just that they were street kids surviving. Illyrio portrays it as a public service, but it is a crime. What is the legal term for this type of crime? It is called fencing! A fence is a middle man who buys stolen goods from a thief and then sells it for profit to the public, while protecting the identity of the thief or even that the goods were stolen at all. Team Valyrio is still operating that way, just on a much bigger and political scale.
Now look through Tyrion’s eyes at the statue. What are we looking at? What else is called fencing? Swordfighting, of course! And it specifically implies the type of swordfighting that in-world is referred to as the water dance of a bravo in both Pentos and Braavos. Not the brute hacking, hawing and hammering of the knight’s iron dance.
“Now we will begin the dance. Remember, child, this is not the iron dance of Westeros we are learning, the knight’s dance, hacking and hammering, no. This is the bravo’s dance, the water dance, swift and sudden.” (aGoT, Arya IV)
That iron dance we witness against the water dance when Cersei’s soldiers and knights attempt to capture Arya.
The fallen men were getting up. Syrio kicked one in the face and snatched the steel cap off the other’s head. The dagger man stabbed at him. Syrio caught the thrust in the helmet and shattered the man’s kneecap with his stick. The last red cloak shouted a curse and charged, hacking down with both hands on his sword. Syrio rolled right, and the butcher’s cut caught the helmetless man between neck and shoulder as he struggled to his knees. The longsword crunched through mail and leather and flesh. The man on his knees shrieked. Before his killer could wrench free his blade, Syrio jabbed him in the apple of his throat. The guardsman gave a choked cry and staggered back, clutching at his neck, his face blackening. (aGoT, Arya IV)
Tywin is a butcher of course, and so is Littlefinger, whose ancestry is ironically Braavos.
The device painted on the shield was one Sansa did not know; a grey stone head with fiery eyes, upon a light green field. “My grandfather’s shield,” Petyr explained when he saw her gazing at it. “His own father was born in Braavos and came to the Vale as a sellsword in the hire of Lord Corbray, so my grandfather took the head of the Titan as his sigil when he was knighted.” (aSoS, Sansa VI)
Petyr’s great-grandfather was a Braavosi sellsword who at some point entered the service of Lord Corbray. Not so incidentally perhaps, Littlefinger’s ancestor lived through or fought in the last war between Braavos and Pentos in 209 AC. The son of the Braavosi sellsword became a hedge knight and took the Titan of Braavos as sigil.
That seemed to amuse the lord of cheese no end. He slapped a meaty thigh and said, “You Westerosi are all the same. You sew some beast upon a scrap of silk, and suddenly you are all lions or dragons or eagles. I can take you to a real lion, my little friend. The prince keeps a pride in his menagerie. Would you like to share a cage with them?”
The lords of the Seven Kingdoms did make rather much of their sigils, Tyrion had to admit. “Very well,” he conceded. “A Lannister is not a lion.” (aDwD, Tyrion I)
Illyrio’s reference to the menagerie of the Prince of Pentos circles back to Syrio’s fat yellow tomcat of the Sealord’s. Like a good bravo, Illyrio sees through the symbolism, calls it scraps of silk, and compares it to another cat – a real big one now – that you do not want to share a cage with, lest you end up being its meal. That is the answer to the Baelish sigil. Behind the mockingbird is a Braavosi who was never a fence, but a swellsword butcher who got dubbed a knight with a sigil. Littlefinger is not a bravo! He is a racketeer (in the narrow sense of that word).
Jon Arryn gave Littlefinger the customs at Gilltown in 289 AC to please Lysa Arryn. And he brought in three times as much as any of the other collectors. Dealing with a spendthrift king, Jon Arryn brought Littlefinger for cout for his talent. Within three years, he rose to master of coin and became a member of the small council. Lysa remembers it as Littlefinger having been brought to court by Jon Arryn to be master of coin. That suggests, he’s been in that position since 292 AC.
Oh, he was clever. He did not simply collect the gold and lock it in a treasure vault, no. He paid the king’s debts in promises, and put the king’s gold to work. He bought wagons, shops, ships, houses. He bought grain when it was plentiful and sold bread when it was scarce. He bought wool from the north and linen from the south and lace from Lys, stored it, moved it, dyed it, sold it. The golden dragons bred and multiplied, and Littlefinger lent them out and brought them home with hatchlings. (aCoK, Tyrion IV)
In the proposal that Illyrio intends to cause a bank run on the Iron Bank to collapse the Braavosi economy, John Suburbs rightfully questions how Petyr Baelish managed to triple the customs’ income of Gulltown and King’s Landing without crippling the economy. The argument goes as follows. Sure, Petyr Baelish embezzles and cooks the books, but that does not explain how Petyr Baelish – who only owns a tower, beach rocks and sheep pellets – could acquire the money to start his financial smokescreen in Gulltown. So, the argument concludes with, Littlefinger could only do this with a financial backer. And that that must be Illyrio.
But Petyr did not require much to start his racket. Lysa helped him get a leg up into his first post, and she always backed him. How did Littlefinger reward Ser Dontos again for whisking Sansa away from the Purple Wedding?
Petyr Baelish put a hand on the rail. “But first you’ll want your payment. Ten thousand dragons, was it?”
“Ten thousand.” Dontos rubbed his mouth with the back of his hand. “As you promised, my lord.”
“Ser Lothor, the reward.”
Lothor Brune dipped his torch. Three men stepped to the gunwale, raised crossbows, fired. One bolt took Dontos in the chest as he looked up, punching through the left crown on his surcoat. The others ripped into throat and belly. It happened so quickly neither Dontos nor Sansa had time to cry out. When it was done, Lothor Brune tossed the torch down on top of the corpse. The little boat was blazing fiercely as the galley moved away. (aSoS, Sansa V)
Petyr hires compromized people on the promise of gold, but murders them when the time comes to pay up. Littlefinger murdered, stole, extorted, threatened and lied his way into money, using brutes to strongarm or kill the gullible or defenceless who did not pay for his discretion or protection. A criminal does not need a secret large investor, if he can racketeer his way in owning ships, shops, and warehouses.
Who exactly hires the strongarms? Not Littlefinger. A customs chief in Gulltown does not have to hire brutes on his own dime. No, he gets to pick and choose whose names get on the list for hire on Lord Grafton of Gulltown’s dime, or the rich Gulltown Arryns who wed merchants. His list of names would be either useless peniless butchers who want in on the racket, or a rich but shady merchant paying a bribe to get a respectful officer positions. The Gulltown Arryns would not mind seeing merchant competition being shaken down. And if Lysa Arryn’s friend was willing to do it for them … You get the picture, right? Less than couth, they are. So, boarish, rude and vulgar, right? And Lord Grafton of Gulltown is a good friend of Petyr. It was even easier in King’s Landing, where the treasury pays for the Gold Cloaks doing the “policing”, while a certain butcher’s son was the Commander of the Gold Cloaks.
The look the king gave Slynt was cold. “Janos was hardly the first gold cloak ever to take a bribe, I grant you, but he may have been the first commander to fatten his purse by selling places and promotions. By the end he must have had half the officers in the City Watch paying him part of their wages. Isn’t that so, Janos?” […] “Two men who were prepared to come forward died suddenly on their rounds.” Stannis narrowed his eyes. “Do not trifle with me, my lord. I saw the proof Jon Arryn laid before the small council. If I had been king you would have lost more than your office, I promise you, but Robert shrugged away your little lapses. ‘They all steal,’ I recall him saying. ‘Better a thief we know than one we don’t, the next man might be worse.’ Lord Petyr’s words in my brother’s mouth, I’ll warrant. Littlefinger had a nose for gold, and I’m certain he arranged matters so the crown profited as much from your corruption as you did yourself.” (aSoS, Samwell V)
Lysa Arryn’s letters of confidence opened doors, and anyone who believed they could profit from Littlefinger’s racket would have given him what he needed. Littlefinger never needed someone like Illyrio to amass his fortune, with what we have on page. If team Valyrio were alleycats, then Littlefinger was a punk with a knife.
Littlefinger hefted the knife lightly in his hand, testing the grip. He flipped it in the air, caught it again with his other hand. “Such sweet balance. You want to find the owner, is that the reason for this visit? You have no need of Ser Aron for that, my lady. You should have come to me.” […] He grasped the blade between thumb and forefinger, drew it back over his shoulder, and threw it across the room with a practiced flick of his wrist. It struck the door and buried itself deep in the oak, quivering. “It’s mine.” (aGoT, Catelyn IV)
Dragon Eggs Returned
Now that I have covered the basics of the different methods and type of crimes they had a talent for, let us revisit one of Illyrio’s major gift to Dany – the dragon eggs
When she opened it, she found piles of the finest velvets and damasks the Free Cities could produce … and resting on top, nestled in the soft cloth, three huge eggs. Dany gasped. […] “What are they?” she asked, her voice hushed and full of wonder.
“Dragon’s eggs, from the Shadow Lands beyond Asshai,” said Magister Illyrio. “The eons have turned them to stone, yet still they burn bright with beauty.” (aGoT, Daenerys II)
In the original draft for aGoT, Dany finds them in the wilderness outside of Vaes Dothrak, after killing Drogo. It was reworked into Illyrio gifting them to her. In aDwD of 2011, George reveals Illyrio’s role as a fence, in particular that of returning stolen goods back to the owner or victim.
Varys spied on lesser thieves and took their takings. I offered my help to their victims, promising to recover their valuables for a fee. (aDwD, Tyrion II)
This reframes Illyrio’s gift as returning lost or stolen dragon eggs back to a Targaryen descendant, the sole rightful owner of any dragon egg laid since the Doom of Valyria.
A fence protects the identity of the thief or buyer of stolen goods, and portrays themselves as having come to the stolen goods through legitimate means. In this gardening way, George allows for Illyrio’s claim about Ashai to be a typical fence lie. And not being kept in hatcheries of a volcano, like Dragonstone, petrifies dragon eggs, and whatever made the eggs after the Dance not hatch properly anymore that petrifies. Princess Rhaena Targaryen’s Dreamfyre laid clutches of eggs thrice during Rhaena’s stay at Fair Isle, twice in 47 AC and another clutch in 49-50 AC. None hatched until Rhaena finally moved to Dragonstone in 51 AC.
The eggs that Dreamfyre had laid on Fair Isle had all hatched once on Dragonstone (Fire & Blood – Birth, Death and Betrayal under Jaehaerys I)
When Elissa Farman made off with three dragon eggs from Dragonstone, in order to buy herself ships to sail the Sunset Sea, Grand Maester Benifer claimed Jaehaerys I need not fear those eggs would hatch by anyone who would buy them in the Free Cities, away from Dragonstone.
“It was gold she wanted, gold to build a ship. She will sell the eggs. They are worth—”
“—a fleet of ships.” Jaehaerys had received his sister in his solar, with only Grand Maester Benifer present to bear witness to what was said . “If those eggs should hatch, there will be another dragonlord in the world, one not of our own house.”
“They may not hatch,” Benifer said. “Not away from Dragonstone. The heat…it is known, some dragon eggs simply turn to stone.” (Fire and Blood – Birth, Death and Betrayal under Jaehaerys I)
So, just because Dany’s eggs seemed petrified they are not necessarily eons old. And if that claim of Illyrio can be wrong, so can the other about Asshai.
Elissa Farman “sailed to Pentos” after Driftmark, and “there the trail went cold.” (Fire & Blood – Birth, Death and Betrayal under Jaehaerys I). And Jaehaerys I jokes to Benifer after the claim they will turn to stone that “some spicemonger in Pentos will find himself possessed of three very costly stones“. He adds that “…the birth of three young dragons is not a thing that can easily be kept secret.” George RR Martin is such a tease here! Because less than 250 years later, the Pentoshi spicemonger Illyrio ends up possessing three very costly stones, which hatch at the edge of the Dothraki Sea (the far end of the civilised world). And once Dany and her hatchlings reach Qarth, the news sails around the world.
Jaehaerys to Rhaena: “You wanted Dragonstone and I gave it to you, and you brought this woman there. This thief.” […] “Should the dragons turn up, anywhere from here to Yi Ti, we will demand their return. They were stolen from us, they are ours by right. […].” (Fire & Blood – Birth, Death and Betrayal under Jaehaerys I)
George teases us too with the Pentoshi master of coin, Rego Draz. He was born with nothing but still became the richest man of Pentos. Unlike Illyrio, he was denied a seat with the magisters, but otherwise he is very much Illyrio’s parallel, flaunting silken robes, ruby rings and using a gilded palanquin. Rego became Jaehaerys’s master-of-coin in 50 AC and gained the title of Lord. Like Varys it was merely a title, without lands or castle or men. In other words, Rego Draz is a mix of Varys and Illyrio in one person, taking the role of Varys in searching for information on both Elissa Farman’s whereabouts as well as the stolen goods, and being quite adept with the treasury.
Benifer, acting through the Pentoshi master of coin, who had agents in every port, reached out across the narrow sea as the king had commanded…“paying good coin to bad men” (in the words of Rego Draz) for any news of dragon eggs, dragons, or Elissa Farman. (Fire & Blood – Birth, Death and Betrayal under Jaehaerys I)
Two years later, Rego and Jaehaerys figure out that Elissa sold the stolen eggs to the Sealord of Braavos to finance the building of Sun Chaser, a ship that could sail deep waters without oars, with which she sailed west into the sunset sea.
We know now that Lady Elissa made her way to Braavos after Pentos, though not before taking on a new name [Alys Westhill]. […] Under that name, she secured an audience with the Sealord of Braavos. The Sealord’s menagerie was far famed, and he was glad to buy the dragon eggs. (Fire & Blood – Birth, Death and Betrayal under Jaehaerys I)
The Iron Bank denied any knowledge of these eggs, while the Sealord only spoke in hypotheticals, so that Braavos could not be accused of knowingly having bought stolen dragon eggs. Just the perfect set up for team Valyrio’s fences!
The Sealord said, “I admit to nothing. If I was in possession of such eggs, however, it could only be because I purchased them.”
“From a thief.”
“How shall that be proved? Has this thief been seized, tried, found guilty? Braavos is a city of laws. Who is the rightful owner of these eggs? Can they show me proof of ownership?” […] “I do not have these eggs, of course,” the Sealord said. “You cannot prove elsewise. If I did have them, however…well, until they hatch, they are but stones. Would your king begrudge me three pretty stones? Now, if I had three…chickens…I might understand his concern. I do admire your Jaehaerys, though. He is a great improvement on his uncle, and Braavos does not wish to see him so unhappy. So instead of stones, let me offer…gold.” (Fire and Blood – Jaehaerys and Alysanne, Their Triumphs and Tragedies)
Septon Barth did not manage to recover the stolend eggs. Instead a deal was struck, where the Sealord paid gold and urged the Iron Bank to forgive the Crown’s remaining debt to them, cutting it in half.
“And all at the cost of three stones,” Barth told the king.
“The Sealord had best hope that they remain stones,” Jaehaerys said. “If If I should hear so much as a whisper of…chickens…his palace will be the first to burn.” (Fire & Blood – Jaehaerys and Alysanne, Their Triumphs and Tragedies)
The “theory” provokes many to question how Illyrio could have known about them and how he would have acquired them. But finding out about them would not be Illyrio’s role. In the Valyrio-team that is Varys’s task. So, the question should be “How did Varys find out?” The answer could be surprisingly simple. Varys would have discovered both the existence and the whereabouts of Elissa Farman’s eggs in the same sources that Gyldayn used to write Fire & Blood. It is quite easy for us to overlook the fact that Fire & Blood is an existing history book in Westeros. According to Elio Garciá (Ran on westeros.org) Archmaester Gyldayn lived into Robert I Baratheon’s reign. Maester Yandel used his Targaryen histories (published and unpublished) as his source for the World book.
Here follows an account of the reign of House Targaryen, from Aegon the Conqueror to Aerys the Mad King. Many are the maesters who have written on these matters, and the knowledge they have fashioned informs much of what will follow. But in one thing, I have taken a liberty: the account of Aegon’s Conquest is not my own work but something lately shared with me in the Citadel, an as-yet complete work by the Archmaester Gyldayn. This fragment — part of a greater work that is intended as a history of the Targaryen kings — was first brought to my attention by the Archmaester Perestan, who regards his efforts (and his prose) highly. […] I have placed it here, with Gyldayn’s blessing […]” (aWoIaF – The Reign of the Dragons, retconned version)
Initially, Archmaester Gyldayn lived during the tragic event of Summerhal and the end of Aegon V’s reign. But then he could not have been alive during Robert’s dynasty. George wanted to continue to use Gyldayn’s voice for part 2 of Fire & Blood. So, Yandel’s reference to Gyldayn’s work has been retconned in a nutshell to “Gyldayn still writing his history (part 2) in 300 AC as well as sharing what he is working on with Yandel.”
Gyldayn’s sources for the retelling of Elissa Farman’s theft, about Rego, private conversations between Jaehaerys, Rhaena and Benifer would not come only from the Citadel, but also on Dragonstone and the red keep. In that way, Rego Draz being a contemporary of Elissa Farman and her trail going cold in Pentos becomes more than an amusing parallel. Reading up on such a man would pique Varys’s curiosity, if only to learn more about how he fared and his eventual fate. Not well, he was murdered in the streets of King’s Landing during an epidemy of the Shivers around the changing of the years in 59-60 AC by starving and drunken angry smallfolk.
Amidst the chaos, His Grace would lose another of his lords, not to the Shivers but to ignorance and hate. Rego Draz had never taken up residence in the Red Keep, though there was ample room for him there, and the king had made the offer many times. The Pentoshi preferred his own manse on the Street of Silk, with the Dragonpit looming above him atop the Hill of Rhaenys. […] After ten years in service to the Iron Throne, Lord Rego had grown quite stout, and no longer chose to ride. Instead he moved from manse to castle and back again in an ornate gilded palanquin. Unwisely, his route took him through the reeking heart of Flea Bottom, the foulest and most lawless district of the city. (Fire & Blood – Jaehaerys and Alysanne, Their Triumphs and Tragedies)
Rego lived in a mansion on the Street of Silk, not the red keep. He traveled between both in his gilded palanquin. During a harsh winter, an epidemic, and prices rising for bread, the foreign master of coin was an easy target. So, when a drunk, starving and angry mob noticed his palanquin, they attacked it and then bashed his skull in (hello Pisswater Prince) and cut off his fingers for his rings.
When his lordship raised his hands to ward off the blows raining down on him, gold and gemstones glittered on every finger, and the attack grew more frenzied still. A woman shouted, “He’s Pentoshi. Them’s the bastards brung the Shivers here.” One of the men pried a stone up from the king’s newly cobbled street and brought it down upon Lord Rego’s head again and again, until only a red mash of blood and bone and brains remained. Thus died the Lord of Air, his skull crushed by one of the very cobblestones he had helped the king lay down. Even then, his assailants were not done with him. Before they ran, they ripped off his fine clothes and cut off all his fingers to lay claim to his rings. (Fire and Blood – Jaehaerys and Alysanne, Their Triumphs and Tragedies)
Varys makes no such mistakes himself. He has a room in the red keep (and an undergaoler cell). He moves about the districts of the city in various disguises, blending in, and wearing protective gear, including his head. And Varys is effectively armed with a dirk and shortsword!
Varys did not look at all like himself. A scarred face and a stubble of dark beard showed under his spiked steel cap, and he wore mail over boiled leather, dirk and shortsword at his belt. […] Even his walk is different, Tyrion observed. The scent of sour wine and garlic clung to Varys instead of lavender. (aCoK, Tyrion III)
He is not just unrecognizable to Cersei’s or Littlefinger’s spies, but to the potential citizens of the city, especially during times when a bread riot is a real risk.
“The work I do does not permit me to travel the streets amid a column of knights. So when I leave the castle, I adopt more suitable guises, and thus live to serve you longer.” (aCoK, Tyrion III)
And if Varys read up on Rego Draz, his life and career, he would stumble on the story of the stolen dragon eggs.
I would go even one step further. It is possible that Aerys II hired Varys initially to find the stolen eggs, exactly becausre Farman’s trail went cold after Pentos. Varys’s career in King’s Landing starts around the period when the Mad King desired to hatch dragon eggs, after the Defiance of Duskendale.
Lord Darklyn would never have dared defy him if he had been a dragonrider, Aerys reasoned. His attempts to bring forth dragons from eggs found in the depths of Dragonstone (some so old that they had turned to stone) yielded naught, however. (tWoIaF – The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II)
As ever before, such a desire led to gathering knowledge on (a) where to find dragon eggs and (b) hatching lore. After Summerhal, and the dragons long gone, the Mad King had to dig deep beneath the volcano of Dragnostone to find a few petrified eggs. He would have wanted more, likely.
Ellisa’s theft of the dragon eggs was not common knowledge, and the arrangement between Jaehaerys I and the Sealord of Braavos even less so. Such a state secret ends up obscured, forgotten and lost. The information was not conveniently put together in a history book before Fire & Blood, yet. So, the search of records mentioning dragon eggs would have been far likelier to uncover Bennifer’s order to Rego to inquire about the dragon eggs Elissa stole and her trail going cold after Pentos. What better way to try and find nearly 230 year lost dragon eggs believed to have been sold in Pentos (erroneously) than by hiring the man fabled in Pentos of finding out any secret, Varys? The man thieves sell to, before his partner returns it to the rightful owner for a fee. Even if Aerys II soon lost interest, Varys could have continued the search, if only out of professional pride. And once, he figured they were in Braavos, Illyrio’s job was to retrieve them. It took both just several years to complete the job.
In the end, stolen or bought, Illyrio gifts the Targaryens dragon eggs that hatch “into chickens”, and therefore team Valyrio was an instrumental cog in the magical wheel for the return of Targaryen dragons.
And the fee?
“It is not a matter of gold or horses. This is bloodmagic, lady. Only death may pay for life.” (aGoT, Daenerys VIII)
“No,” Mirri Maz Duur said. “That was a lie you told yourself. You knew the price.”
Had she? Had she? If I look back I am lost. “The price was paid,” Dany said. “The horse, my child, Quaro and Qotho, Haggo and Cohollo. The price was paid and paid and paid.” (aGoT, Daenerys IX)
The Dagger Man
Varys is the one who deals with Littlefinger on page, not Illyrio. So, assessing the dynamics of both men from their different crime angles and methods helps gain clarity.
A lesser thief
“What treasury is that?” Littlefinger replied with a twist of his mouth. “Spare me the foolishness, Maester. You know as well as I that the treasury has been empty for years. I shall have to borrow the money. No doubt the Lannisters will be accommodating. We owe Lord Tywin some three million dragons at present, what matter another hundred thousand?”
Ned was stunned. “Are you claiming that the Crown is three million gold pieces in debt?”
“The Crown is more than six million gold pieces in debt, Lord Stark. The Lannisters are the biggest part of it, but we have also borrowed from Lord Tyrell, the Iron Bank of Braavos, and several Tyroshi trading cartels. Of late I’ve had to turn to the Faith. The High Septon haggles worse than a Dornish fishmonger.”
Ned was aghast. “Aerys Targaryen left a treasury flowing with gold. How could you let this happen?” (aGoT, Eddard IV)
Varys knows finances and money matters as well as Illyrio. He would not have been as successful in Pentos otherwise. Varys simply has a bigger passion for discovery, while Illyrio has a passion for the clink of gold. With so many spies and skill in reading ledgers, letters, books and papers, Varys must have been aware that Littlefinger was cooking the books, enriching himseelf with embezzlement and bribery, for many years. In other words, Varys allowed Littlefinger to steal.
Overall, it is to team Valyrio’s benefit that Tywin Lannister and the Iron Bank funded Robert’s bottomless money pit. In their eyes, House Lannister was banking on a temporary dynasty and would be poorer for it. Meanwhile the Iron Bank would have its due: when a dynasty cannot or does not pay, they back a rival.
When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones.(aDwD, Jon IX)
Indeed, once Cersei stopped repaying the loan to the Iron Bank, the Braavosi bank seeks out her rival Stannis Baratheon. Their envoy, Tycho Nestorys plods through snowstorms from Castle Black all the way to a tower in the Wolfswood at ice lakes some way from Winterfell and have Stannis sign the crown’s loan contract with his own blood as well as giving him an open credit line to get whatever he needs to take the Iron Throne.
When Cersei decides Westeros should have its own bank and that it should be a Lannister bank, combined with Tywin the main lender to the crown, George is framing House Lannister into putting a different kind of target on their back. The Iron Bank deals with their own financial rivals via Faceless Men. Or at least it is heavily suggested with what befell the Rogare bank of Lys.
In the end, it was Larra Rogare and her wealthy, ambitious family who helped break the power of the regents and, almost certainly, that of Lord Peake. It was an inadvertent role they played, however, caught up as they were in the Lyseni Spring. This was a time when the Rogare Bank waxed greater than the Iron Bank, (tWoIaF – The Targaryen Kings: Aegon III)
Larra Rogarde had been wed by her father to Viserys Targaryen, the youngest son of Rhaenyra and Daemon Targaryen, and brother to Aegon III Targaryen. During the Dance of the Dragons, Prince Jacaerys Velaryon decided that his half-brothers, Aegon and Viserys would be fostered in Pentos for their own safety. But their ship was captured by the Triarchy sailing into the Gullet to break the Velaryon blockade of Blackwater Bay. Aegon escaped on his young dragon Stormcload, while Viserys who only had his dragon egg was captured. Viserys ended up with Bambarro Bazanne, a magister of Lys. When Bambarro died with a large debt, the Rogare bank seized all of his possessions, including Viserys. Once Lysandro Rogare realized who Viserys was, he wed him to his youngest daughter, Larra. With Lysando’s brother Drazenko as consort of the Princess of Dorne, House Rogare of Lys had wed into two different royal families – Dorne was a separate kingdom from the rest of Westeros at the time.
And then Lysandro Rogare and Drazenko died within a day of each other, a year after Viserys returned to Aegon III’s court. Drazenko choked on a piece of bacon at Sunspear, and Lysandro drowned when his barge sank in Lys. That these were hits by Faceless Men was a widely claimed rumor. When it became known that Lysandro’s son and heir, Lysaro, embezzled the money of the Rogare bank, a bank run followed and Lysaro was scourged to death at the Lysene Temple of Trade. Though Lysaro’s siblings survived, the family never recovered. Not even Larra would experience being queen to a king, for four years later, she separated from him to return to Lys. She died sixteen years before Viserys II inherited the Iron Throne from his nephew Baelor the Blessed.
What befell the Rogare Bank is used to build a parallel for Illyrio’s hypothesized intention for a run on the Iron Bank. Instead I believe it is a parallel for the financial demise of House Lannister. Yes, the Iron Bank could come under pressure, because of Dany’s increasing global economical disruption as she brings down the slave trade. Even if Braavos nor its merechants deal directly in slave trade, they do trade with the other Free Cities whose economy relies on it. The Iron Bank is not just a private bank owned by one family or house, however. It compares far more to a National Bank, an updated version of a treasury, while the Faceless Men compare to the CIA. Yes, they both have private clients, but they serve a Braavos security interest primordially. And both own lands and other assets such as grain and crops abroad, not just gold. These are real assets, especially during a lean, long winter.
If Illyrio were to organize a bank run on the Iron Bank, the Faceless Men would kill Illyrio’s Aegon Targaryen with great pleasure for a groat in retaliation, even if the Iron Bank was insolvable. A Faceless Man would have murdered King Joffrey, Queen Cersei and Tywin Lannister, because a girl threw an axe at a cage in flames. And Illyrio would know this. Given his affection displayed for Aegon – when Illyrio says goodbye to Tyrion – I do not believe Illyrio would risk Aegon’s life. More, Illyrio and the World Book has declared several times that Pentoshi have learned that trading gifts is a cheaper way to deal with a threat than war. Even if Illyrio thirsts for revenge, Pentoshi economy also relies on Braavosi traders.
So, no I do not believe team Valyrio’s intent is to make the Iron Bank fail, but provoke it in welcoming a restoration of the Targaryen dynasty, without needing exasberate the loan the way Stannis has to. Illyrio managed to acquire enough (creative) resources for both Aegon and Viserys. That gives Illyrio leverage to say “I can shore up the money to return the loans you lost, but for a fee – lift the military prohibitions on Pentos. Your choice.” In other words, team Valyrio foresaw the Iron Bank would want to replace the spenthrift Robert and embezzling Littlefinger, exactly the Iron Bank does with Cersei and Stannis. They simply intended for the backed alternative to be their Targaryens, not Stannis.
I do understand that Varys’s non-reaction may give the impression that Littlefinger is or was conspiring with them. Varys not interfering with Littlefinger for so long is not evidence that Petyr Baelish works for team Valyrio though. We do have evidence though that Varys regards Littlefinger as a lesser thief – albeit useful – with no other interest than being rich, while keeping his biggest cheerleader happy (Lysa). We know this, because to Ned Stark, Varys has this to say about Eddard’s question whether Varys and Littlefinger are working together.
“Is this your own scheme,” he gasped out at Varys, “or are you in league with Littlefinger?”
That seemed to amuse the eunuch. “I would sooner wed the Black Goat of Qohor. Littlefinger is the second most devious man in the Seven Kingdoms. Oh, I feed him choice whispers, sufficient so that he thinks I am his … just as I allow Cersei to believe I am hers.”
“And just as you let me believe that you were mine. Tell me, Lord Varys, who do you truly serve?” (aGoT, Eddard XV)
Varys would rather wed the Black Goat of Qohor than actually be in league with Petyr Baelish. And along with his contempt for Littlefinger, Varys portrays himself as the top manipulator who plays everyone else. He feels superior to Littlefinger from every angle possible. And what did Varys do with petty, selfish and violent thieves in Pentos? Steal from them.
Jon Arryn
In Illyrio’s plan, I quoted how Varys implies to Tyrion in aCoK that Littlefinger helped Ned Stark, Stannis and Jon Arryn to the clues of Cersei’s twincest.
“[Stannis] accuses my brother and sister of incest. I wonder how he came by that suspicion.”
“Perhaps he read a book and looked at the color of a bastard’s hair, as Ned Stark did, and Jon Arryn before him. Or perhaps someone whispered it in his ear.” The eunuch’s laugh was not his usual giggle, but deeper and more throaty.
“Someone like you, perchance?” […]”If you were not this whisperer, who was?”
“Some traitor, doubtless.” Varys tightened the cinch.
“Littlefinger?”
“I named no name.” (aCoK, Tyrion IV)
Varys does not confirm that Littlefinger whispered it to Stannis. He does allow Tyrion to believe it though. And Varys himself may believe it. He knows Littlefinger helped Ned Stark chase Jon Arryn’s trail and that as Lysa Arryn’s favourite, Petyr Baelish was trusted by Jon Arryn.
We can rule out Varys himself. He never whispered a word of it to Ned Stark. He never even broached the subject until Eddard was in a black cell. And then he berated Ned for confronting Cersei over it. Varys admits to Tyrion though, he was aware for years that Cersei’s children are not Robert’s.
“Am I suspected? It was not me.”[…]“No. But why should I betray a secret I have kept so long? It is one thing to deceive a king, and quite another to hide from the cricket in the rushes and the little bird in the chimney. […]” (aCoK, Tyrion IV)
Varys had very good reasons to keep it a secret for so long. Robert’s only sons would be bastards on prostitutes and tavern wenches, except for the acknowledged Edric Storm. None of these could rally a highborn lord against a returned Targaryen dynasty. While Edric Storm would be persuaded to bend the knee to Viserys III or Aegon VI in return for being Lord of Storm’s End. Stannis only had the one daughter with greyscale scars on her face and Renly had none. Robert’s legacy was weak if not non-existing, because of Cersei’s twincest.
Cersei had made it obvious when her three golden haired children compared to Robert’s black haired bastards (born across the realm). On paper, it was the perfect scandal to turn the tables on any Baratheon or Lannister who dared to claim the invading Aegon to be a fraud. Varys could produce six to eight of Robert’s sixteen bastards. Not only were they taken care of. He kept tabs on them.
Not so incidentally, before Tyrion discusses Stannis with Varys, Cersei’s small council (in Varys’s absence) discussed such a counter strategy to tackle Stannis’s letters claiming Joffrey is not Robert’s son.
“A tale of somewhat the same nature, perhaps. But more easily believed. Lord Stannis has spent most of his marriage apart from his wife. Not that I fault him, I’d do the same were I married to Lady Selyse. Nonetheless, if we put it about that her daughter is baseborn and Stannis a cuckold, well . . . the smallfolk are always eager to believe the worst of their lords, particularly those as stern, sour, and prickly proud as Stannis Baratheon.” (aCoK, Tyrion III)
Now, envision what Illyrio and Varys planned on – three survivors of the incestuous Targaryens who all look their part or Lannister blond Baratheons. The Faith and smallfolk only ever accepted the Targaryens as having the innate birthright to be the exception on incest closer than a second cousin. Every child between a Baratheon and Targaryen was black haired: Steffon and Jocelyn Baratheon, and Rhaenys Targaryen. “If Targaryen features could not withstand Baratheon cole, then Lannister gold certainly could not”, would be the easiest propaganda to whisper across the realm by septons and ravens. And nothing would have been more crippling to Robert Baratheon’s alliance with the Lannisters than the claim that Cersei cuckolded him with her Kingslayer twin. Even if Tywin and Cersei would have called it slander, Robert would have recognized the truth of it, had he lived. That is why Varys wanted to keep Robert alive.
Once more though, Stannis ended up doing what team Valyrio intended to. And he failed, because he was disliked by most Lords, and he only had Edric Storm at hand. Cersei already had Robert’s bastards in King’s Landing butchered, just as she once had Robert’s twin babies in Lannisport killed (according to Littlefinger). Of the several bastards living in King’s Landing, only Gendry managed to survive Slynt’s Gold Cloaks.
So, Varys intended for the truth about Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen to come out, just not before Viserys
- welcomed Aegon as the nephew who miraculously survived;
- recognized Aegon as heir, over Dany’s potential son;
- had his Dothraki screamers and joined them with the Golden Company.
Illyrio told Viserys he might have to wait a few years before he could actually start his invasion with his army of Dothraki, based on Drogo’s travels to Vaes Dothraki and back. At the start of aGoT, Illyrio did not foresee an invasion of the Dothraki and Golden Company until early 299 AC. And when does Stannis send his letters from Dragonstone? Early 299 AC. Jon Arryn and Stannis uncovering the truth about Cersei’s children was too early.
So, who whispered into Stannis’s ear? Stannis would not trust Petyr Baelish. He considers him as corrupt as Varys and both completely devoid of morals. Compared to Stannis, Ned Stark is more trusting. He can barely interact with his two brothers or hide his contempt for Robert’s wanton ways or Renly’s superficial charm. Littlefinger and Stannis are complete opposites: Petyr owns three brothels, and Stannis outlawed them on Dragonstone and wanted to generalize this. The last thing Littlefinger ever wanted was for either Jon Arryn or Ned Stark to reveal the truth to Robert Baratheon. It would have been one of the major motive why Littlefinger used Lysa to kill Jon Arryn. If Littlefinger intended to set up Jon Arryn as he did with Ned Stark, he would have gone straight to the Lord of the Vale and not to Stannis first. But we know from Stannis himself that he involved Jon Arryn once he had his suspicions.
Neither Littlefinger, or Varys whispered it to Stannis. It was Melisandre who sought out Dragonstone and Stannis all on her own several years before aGoT.
Tywin to Tyrion: “Oh, Varys hears his whispers. Stannis is building ships, Stannis is hiring sellswords, Stannis is bringing a shadowbinder from Asshai. What does it mean? Is any of it true?” (aGoT, Tyrion IX)
“Varys told us some years past that Lady Selyse had taken up with a red priest,” Littlefinger reminded them. (aCoK, Tyrion III)
Mel uses visions in flames to convince Jon Snow she sees the truth and future both: the vision of the spears with the skulls, the grey girl on a horse fleeing towards Jon’s protection, and the knives in the dark after the arrival of a message. She had to do the same with the agnostic/atheist Stannis.
“I stopped believing in gods the day I saw the Windproud break up across the bay. Any gods so monstrous as to drown my mother and father would never have my worship, I vowed. In King’s Landing, the High Septon would prattle at me of how all justice and goodness flowed from the Seven, but all I ever saw of either was made by men.”
“If you do not believe in gods—”
“—why trouble with this new one?” Stannis broke in. “I have asked myself as well. I know little and care less of gods, but the red priestess has power.” (aCoK, Davos I)
And in the beginning, she used Selyse as in between, as we see in aCoK’s Prologue.
“Yes,” [Selyse] answered, “but if Renly should die . . .” Stannis looked at his lady with narrowed eyes, […] “Melisandre has gazed into the flames, and seen him dead.”
Cressen was horrorstruck. “Fratricide . . . my lord, this is evil, unthinkable . . . please, listen to me.” […]
“I have heard your counsel, Cressen,” Lord Stannis said. “Now I will hear hers. You are dismissed.” (aCoK, Prologue)
Stannis’s dismissal of Cressen to want to hear more from Selyse on what Mel predicts shows this is not the first time. And aCoK‘s prologue also showcases Stannis believes her visions and predictions enough to go certain lengths to prevent it from happening. Melisandre foresaw Maester Cressen would attempt to poison her at the feast. Stannis attempted to prevent Cressen having the opportunity, by leting him sleep through it.
The old man could only stop and stare. “Maester Pylos,” he said at last. “You . . . you did not wake me.”
“His Grace commanded me to let you rest.” Pylos had at least the grace to blush. “He told me you were not needed here.” (aCoK, Prologue)
When Cressen shows up nevertheless, Stannis even tells him he would not have him kill himself in Stannis’s service.
“Pylos will counsel me henceforth. Already he works with the ravens, since you can no longer climb to the rookery. I will not have you kill yourself in my service.”(aCoK, Prologue)
So, what truths and predicions did Mel whisper (via Selyse) to Stannis that caused him to become suspicious about Cersei’s children only around the end of the year 297 AC? Stannis did his marriage duty once or twice a year when visiting Dragonstone. The moment that Melisandre claimed that Stannis would become the true king, he would have started out skeptical, likely believing her a fraud. And how could he be Robert’s heir, when Robert had three children with Cersei? That is when Mel revealed that Cersei’s children were not Robert’s, and Stannis begins his own research in King’s Landing – rationally and independently. He involved Jon Arryn, because Robert would not have accepted such an awful truth from Stannis’s lips. And then once Jon Arryn was dead, Stannis sailed to Dragonstone to learn what else Mel could see in her flames. And if Mel also predicted Robert’s and Ned’s death, her advice likely convinced Stannis to stay away from the capital.
Varys only ever knew Stannis to be an agnostic, rational man. Stannis believing in the predictions of a red priestess would sound absurd to him. Even Stannis trusting Littlefinger would seem more likely to Varys at the time he discusses it with Tyrion.
Did Varys know who actually killed Jon Arryn? We know for a certainty that Lysa Tully administered the tears of Lys to Jon Arryn: she confessed she did it on Petyr Baelish’s advice within Sansa’s hearing in aSoS.
“Tears, tears, tears,” [Lysa] sobbed hysterically. “No need for tears . . . but that’s not what you said in King’s Landing. You told me to put the tears in Jon’s wine, and I did. For Robert, and for us! And I wrote Catelyn and told her the Lannisters had killed my lord husband, just as you said.[…]” (aSoS, Sansa VII)
Varys correctly named the poison to Ned Stark, though he makes Eddard believe it was the conveniently dead Ser Hugh of the Vale. However, look a bit more closely at how Varys initially describes “the boy” who poisoined Jon Arryn?
“Some dear sweet friend who often shared meat and mead with him, no doubt. Oh, but which one? There were many such. Lord Arryn was a kindly, trusting man.” The eunuch sighed. “There was one boy. All he was, he owed Jon Arryn, but when the widow fled to the Eyrie with her household, he stayed in King’s Landing and prospered. It always gladdens my heart to see the young rise in the world.” The whip was in his voice again, every word a stroke. “He must have cut a gallant figure in the tourney, him in his bright new armor, with those crescent moons on his cloak. A pity he died so untimely, before you could talk to him …” (aGoT, Eddard VII)
Ser Hugh was not the sole one who owed all he was to Jon Arryn, who remained in King’s Landing after Lysa fled and prospered. Littlefinger prospered even more because of it than Ser Hugh ever did. Varys was not talking about Ser Hugh, when he described the boy. Varys always knew that Littlefinger instructed Lysa to poison Jon Arryn. He did make Ned Stark believe it was Ser Hugh, without actually saying so. Why?
Littlefinger revealed to Ned Stark who of Lysa’s household remained in King’s Landing: “a pregnant kitchen girl hastily wed to one of Lord Renly’s grooms, a stablehand who joined the City Watch, a potboy discharged from service for theft, and Lord Arryn’s squire“.
“Ser Hugh of the Vale,” Littlefinger named him. “The king knighted the boy after Lord Arryn’s death.” (aGoT, Eddard V)
Jory Cassel talks with each of them:
- the serving girl alludes to Jon Arryn having read “more than was good for him“, and hints that Jon Arryn and Lysa Arryn may have been at odds with each other over Sweetrobin’s fostering.
- the former potboy spills all the kitchen gossip: Jon was sending Sweetrobin to Dragonstone, took an interest in the breeding of hunting hounds, and he went to Tobho Mott’s together with Stannis to see Gendry.
- Ser Hugh dismisses Jory Cassel, but he is willing to talk to the Hand in person.
- the stable boy, turned Gold Cloak, talks well of Jon Arryn without revealing anything.
Jory had spoken to each of them in turn. Ser Hugh had been brusque and uninformative, and arrogant as only a new-made knight can be. If the Hand wished to talk to him, he should be pleased to receive him, but he would not be questioned by a mere captain of guards … even if said captain was ten years older and a hundred times the swordsman. . (aGoT, Eddard VI)
Now who arranged for each of their fates? The same man who told Ned Stark where to find them: Littlefinger. He helped or bribed…
- the serving girl with a husband in Renly’s household.
- the stable boy with a profitable job with the Gold Cloaks, under Littlefinger’s man Janos Slynt.
- the recent knighted Ser Hugh with a large enough sum, with which he ordered new armor for the Hand’s tourney. It was not the armor that Jon Arryn was rumored to have bought, since Tobho tells Ned Stark that the Hand did not honor him with his patronage.
Littlefinger bribed three, but the potboy’s gossip could never be contained. The potboy’s tarnished reputation as a thief and never having exchanged a word with Jon Arryn would make it unlikely that he would be believed.
Why would Littlefinger reveal the potential witnesses he bribed into silence? To test who would talk and who would not. The serving girl hints at the trouble that led to Jon Arryn’s death, but refrains outright from revealing more, for the sake of her child likely. The stable boy reveals nothing, knowing it would be too easy he would end up dead by a fellow Gold Cloak while on duty. Only Ser Hugh was also arrogant enough to chance talking with Ned Stark. It would be too easy to list Ser Hugh against the violent Gregor Clegane and turn him into a patsy.
When Tyrion questions Pycelle about Jon Arryn’s murder, the Grand Maester confesses that he sent Maester Coleman away who attempted to save the Hand from the poison by purging him. That he did this to preserve Cersei’s secret. But Pycelle also names Ser Hugh the poisoner, insisting that Tyrion should ask Varys and Cersei both.
Yes,” he whimpered, “yes, Colemon was purging, so I sent him away. The queen needed Lord Arryn dead, she did not say so, could not, Varys was listening, always listening, but when I looked at her I knew. It was not me who gave him the poison, though, I swear it.” The old man wept. “Varys will tell you, it was the boy, his squire, Hugh he was called, he must surely have done it, ask your sister, ask her.”
Pycelle knows that Varys named Ser Hugh to Ned Stark and believes Varys’s claim, but also that Cersei knows a thing or two about Ser Hugh. The moment that Ser Hugh had shown he was willing to talk to Ned Stark in person, either Cersei or Littlefinger arranged for him to ride against Gregor Clegane, a brute who delights in teaching an arrogant, fresh knight in shiny new armor a deadly lesson.
So, why did Varys went along with Ser Hugh as the patsy? He had no credible and usable witnesses to provide the evidence against Littlefinger or Lysa. Jon Arryn’s widow was in the Vale, gathering an army. That left only the disgraced potboy and the serving girl, and each points to Lysa and her motive, but also Cersei’s secret.
Marillion highlights how Ser Hugh was a patsy too. The singer attempted to rape Sansa, believing her to be the baseborn daughter of Littlefinger, Lysa’s fresh husband. Marillion was so arrogant that he believed himself untouchable, as had Ser Hugh. Having seen and heard too much, both Marillion and the upjumped squire Ser Hugh were about to sing the truth, and both became patsies for murdering Lysa and Jon Arryn respectively.
Lysa stumbled backward, her feet slipping on the wet marble. And then she was gone. She never screamed. For the longest time there was no sound but the wind.
Marillion gasped, “You . . . you . . .”
The guards were shouting outside the door, pounding with the butts of their heavy spears. Lord Petyr pulled Sansa to her feet. “You’re not hurt?” When she shook her head, he said, “Run let my guards in, then. Quick now, there’s no time to lose. This singer’s killed my lady wife.” (aSoS, Sansa VII)
Maidenheads and a dagger
A semi-canon source, the A World of Ice and Fire app, claims that Lysa and Littlefinger had an affair already in King’s Landing, before Jon Arryn’s murder. And since Petyr Baelish was Lysa’s acclaimed favourite, no doubt Varys may have had some theories on the lesser thief‘s real motive for urging her to kill Jon Arryn. But then Lysa’s sister Catelyn shows up unexpectedly by ship in King’s landing with a dragonbone handled dagger of Valyrian steel.
He eased himself down into a seat and put his hands together. “I wonder if we might trouble you to show us the dagger?”
[…] “What have you done to Ser Rodrik?” she demanded.
Littlefinger was lost. “I feel rather like the knight who arrives at the battle without his lance. What dagger are we talking about? Who is Ser Rodrik?”
“Ser Rodrik Cassel is master-at-arms at Winterfell,” Varys informed him. “I assure you, Lady Stark, nothing at all has been done to the good knight. He did call here early this afternoon. He visited with Ser Aron Santagar in the armory, and they talked of a certain dagger. About sunset, they left the castle together and walked to that dreadful hovel where you were staying. They are still there, drinking in the common room, waiting for your return. Ser Rodrik was very distressed to find you gone.”
“How could you know all that?”
“The whisperings of little birds,” Varys said, smiling. “I know things, sweet lady. That is the nature of my service.” (aGoT, Catelyn IV)
While Catelyn may have been flabbergasted, because she tried to be discrete, the rereader would be less surprised that Ser Rodrik could not just come and interrogate the master-at-arms of the red keep’s armory over a Valyrian steel dagger without Varys learning of it within the hour.
Littlefinger tells part truth and lie. The dagger did belong to him until the tourney of Joffrey’s name day early 298 AC.
“I would have told you that there was only one knife like this at King’s Landing.” […] “It’s mine.” […] “Until the tourney on Prince Joffrey’s name day,” he said, crossing the room to wrench the dagger from the wood. “I backed Ser Jaime in the jousting, along with half the court.” Petyr’s sheepish grin made him look half a boy again. “When Loras Tyrell unhorsed him, many of us became a trifle poorer. Ser Jaime lost a hundred golden dragons, the queen lost an emerald pendant, and I lost my knife. Her Grace got the emerald back, but the winner kept the rest.”
But he lies that Tyrion bet against Jaime (a no-no) in a joust and won the dagger, while in fact Robert won the dagger.
“Who?” Catelyn demanded, her mouth dry with fear. Her fingers ached with remembered pain.
“The Imp,” said Littlefinger as Lord Vary watched her face. “Tyrion Lannister.” (aGoT, Catelyn IV)
Varys never corrects Littlefinger’s lie to either Ned Stark or Catelyn, but he would have unlikely been unaware that Robert won the dagger. Given Varys’s role when it comes to discovering lost or stolen goods, he brought Catelyn straight to the owner who lost it, Littlefinger. Varys allowed Littlefinger’s lie, because it protected king Robert Baratheon. Because Varys had Catelyn meet with Littlefinger, he prevented Ser Aron Santagar from seeing it. The master of arms would have recognized it as a recent acquisition of the king.
That Robert’s dagger was important enough for Catelyn to take a ship from White Harbor to King’s Landing in secrecy with just Ser Rodrik, all to discover its owner, would make Varys fear that the truth might have devestating consequences, even war, at the wrong time. Varys rarely allows dangerous truths to be relayed to someone ahead of him.
Littlefinger sauntered over to the table, wrenched the knife from the wood. “The accusation is treason either way. Accuse the king and you will dance with Ilyn Payne before the words are out of your mouth. The queen … if you can find proof, and if you can make Robert listen, then perhaps …” (aGoT, Eddard IV)
Varys was not going to allow that dagger to lead to an accusation against the king, without knowing what had occurred at Winterfell, or how the king’s dagger ended up with Catelyn. She never told Varys about the catspaw sent to kill Bran, but she repeated it to Ned Stark in the presence of Littlefinger, whom she told off page before already.
So he listened, and she told it all, from the fire in the library tower to Varys and the guardsmen and Littlefinger. And when she was done, Eddard Stark sat dazed beside the table, the dagger in his hand. […] “Very well,” he said, thrusting the dagger into his belt. “You spoke of Varys. Does the eunuch know all of it?”
“Not from my lips,” Catelyn said. “You did not wed a fool, Eddard Stark. But Varys has ways of learning things that no man could know. He has some dark art, Ned, I swear it.” (aGoT, Eddard IV)
Varys’s little birds could have overheard either occassion.
“The fools tried to kill his son, and what’s worse, they made a mummer’s farce of it. He’s not a man to put that aside. I warn you, the wolf and lion will soon be at each other’s throats, whether we will it or no.” […] “Littlefinger … the gods only know what game Littlefinger is playing. Yet Lord Stark’s the one who troubles my sleep. He has the bastard, he has the book, and soon enough he’ll have the truth. And now his wife has abducted Tyrion Lannister, thanks to Littlefinger’s meddling.” (aGoT, Arya IV)
So, why did Littlefinger implicate Tyrion? Lysa had already accused the Lannisters having murdered Jon Arryn, with her secret message hidden inside a box of a Myrish looking glass. At the Eyrie, Lysa claims that she wrote it to warn them away from King’s Landing. This is likely true for Lysa. She would expect Catelyn to go to King’s Landing with Ned Stark, just like she did with Jon Arryn. But Lysa would not want Catelyn to live around Littlefinger, while she was separated from him in the Vale. Nor would she have wanted a war that Catelyn and Ned Stark might drag her into. She is pretty freaked out about Catelyn showing up at the Eyrie with Tyrion.
But Lysa’s motive does not have to align with Littlefinger. Petyr would expect Ned Stark to seek justice for Jon Arryn. He knew that Lord Stark fell out for a while with Robert over Lannisters slaughtering babies. He knew the Warden of the North would have executed the last Mormont in the male line over selling poachers as slaves. That Ned would not be warned away from Lysa’s accusation. It would motivate Ned Stark personally, if a king’s command would not suffice. And what better way to remain under the radar of Ned’s investigation than pointing the way towards Cersei’s treason and setting up the Lannisters as the conspirators behind Jon Arryn’s murder. Of course, Littlefinger could not foresee Jaime and Cersei would be play into his set up of them so well by throwing the Hand’s son from a tower in his own home, or Joffrey sending a catspaw to assassinate comatose Bran with a Valyrian steel dagger, once owned by Littlefinger.
Without knowing himself what happened that resulted in Bran’s fall, Littlefinger had to keep suspicion on the Lannisters. And with the queen, Jaime and Ned Stark so close to the city, Petyr picked the “safest” Lannister: Tyrion had the least power and was despised by both Cersei or Tywin. Tyrion was not even around to defend himself against an accusation, but visiting the Wall. Maybe Petyr hoped Tyrion might be apprehended by the Northerners the moment passed Winterfell again. By accusing Tyrion, Littlefinger kept suspicion on the Lannister siblings as well as bought himself time to gain control of the narrative and if possible get rid of the evidence – the dagger.
“This?” Littlefinger flipped the knife casually end over end. “A sweet piece of steel, but it cuts two ways, my lord. The Imp will no doubt swear the blade was lost or stolen while he was at Winterfell, and with his hireling dead, who is there to give him the lie?” He tossed the knife lightly to Ned. “My counsel is to drop that in the river and forget that it was ever forged.” (aGoT, Eddard IV)
I do suspect that Littlefinger expected (and hoped) that Ned Stark would take his wife along to King’s Landing. He may have hoped to have as much an affair with Catelyn as he had with Lysa. Petyr Baelish did not just brag openly that he had the maidenheads of both sisters. He truly believed it, even though in reality it was Lysa each time.
Tyrion cocked his head. “Why, every man at court has heard him tell how he took your maidenhead, my lady.” […] “And you are truly a fool, Lady Stark. Littlefinger has never loved anyone but Littlefinger, and I promise you that it is not your hand that he boasts of, it’s those ripe breasts of yours, and that sweet mouth, and the heat between your legs.” (aGoT, Tyrion IV)
Petyr Baelish to Sansa “You are old enough to know that your mother and I were more than friends. There was a time when Cat was all I wanted in this world. I dared to dream of the life we might make and the children she would give me . . . but she was a daughter of Riverrun, and Hoster Tully. Family, Duty, Honor, Sansa. Family, Duty, Honor meant I could never have her hand. But she gave me something finer, a gift a woman can give but once.” (aSoS, Sansa IV)
Lysa to Sansa: “You enticed him, just as your mother did that night in Riverrun, with her smiles and her dancing. You think I could forget? That was the night I stole up to his bed to give him comfort. I bled, but it was the sweetest hurt. He told me he loved me then, but he called me Cat, just before he fell back to sleep.” (aSoS, Sansa VII)
The updates by raven from Winterfell after Bran’s fall would have corrected Petyr Baelish from the notion that Catelyn would join the new Hand in King’s Landing soon enough. And then, Varys comes to him with the news of Catelyn being in town: he fears she might distrust him. She knew Littlefinger as a boy though and he is a trusted friend of her sister Lysa. She might be better at ease if Littlefinger would meet with her first?
“Nothing happens in this city without Varys knowing. Ofttimes he knows about it before it happens. He has informants everywhere. His little birds, he calls them. One of his little birds heard about your visit. Thankfully, Varys came to me first.”
“Why you?”
He shrugged. “Why not me? I am master of coin, the king’s own councillor. Selmy and Lord Renly rode north to meet Robert, and Lord Stannis is gone to Dragonstone, leaving only Maester Pycelle and me. I was the obvious choice. I was ever a friend to your sister Lysa, Varys knows that.” (aGoT, Catelyn IV)
Realize too that Varys refrained from mentioning the dagger to Littlefinger beforehand. Hence, Petyr agreed eagerly, in the hopes of meeting Catelyn and having a private moment with her. He behaves overly familiar towards Catelyn as if they have a shared secret about their mutual desires.
“You were not mistreated, I trust,” he said after they had gone. “I gave firm instructions.” He noticed her bandages. “Your hands …”
Catelyn ignored the implied question. “I am not accustomed to being summoned like a serving wench,” she said icily. “As a boy, you still knew the meaning of courtesy.”
“I’ve angered you, my lady. That was never my intent.” He looked contrite. […]
“How did you know I was in the city?” she asked him.
“Lord Varys knows all,” Petyr said with a sly smile. “He will be joining us shortly, but I wanted to see you alone first. It has been too long, Cat. How many years?”
Catelyn ignored his familiarity. There were more important questions. […] “Does Varys know about …”
“Lord Varys knows everything … except why you are here.” (aGoT, Catelyn IV)
And when Catelyn asks whether “Vary knows about ….”, Petyr prevents her from completing her sentence. While Catelyn likely wished to allude to Littlefinger’s dueling challenge of Brandon Stark, Littlefinger would have believed she alluded to giving him her maidenhead. He also dismisses Cat’s marriage as only one of being true to her family’s words, as a duty. He does not believe she could actually loves her husband.
He lifted an eyebrow. “Why are you here?”
“A wife is allowed to yearn for her husband, and if a mother needs her daughters close, who can tell her no?”
Littlefinger laughed. “Oh, very good, my lady, but please don’t expect me to believe that. I know you too well. What were the Tully words again?” […] “Family, Duty, Honor,” he echoed. “All of which required you to remain in Winterfell, where our Hand left you. No, my lady, something has happened. This sudden trip of yours bespeaks a certain urgency. I beg of you, let me help. Old sweet friends should never hesitate to rely upon each other.” (aGoT, Catelyn IV)
No doubt, Varys was listening in, from the other side of the door. It gives him firsthand knowledge on whether Catelyn was a fool for Littlefinger like Lysa. Cat’s emotional distance and coolness towards Petyr, even in private would have informed Varys enough that Catelyn did not return Littlefinger’s feelings. At this point, he knocks to interupt Petyr from soliciting lady Stark in this manner again.
There was a soft knock on the door. “Enter,” Littlefinger called out. (aGoT, Catelyn IV)
The interesting thing is that Littlefinger managed to make Varys believe that the catspaw’s attempt to kill Bran was orchestrated by the Lannisters, a mummer’s farce, even though he knows the dagger was not won by Tyrion. And the manner in which Petyr mooned after Catelyn would have made Varys wonder why Littlefinger would push for war between the Starks and the Lannisters. While Varys begins to realize that the knife punk and lesser thief had begun to play a game beyond the scope of self enrichment, it takes even him by surprise eventually. What follows is a game of agents and recruits, muddled by the wildcard, Joffrey Baratheon. I will tackle that in a follow-up essay.
Conclusion
In essence, Varys, Illyrio and Littlefinger grew up as lowborn street kids, starting out with nothing, surviving on crime. They clawed their way not just to the financial top, but into positions of legal power. And I argue that dismissing or ignoring these facts for Varys and Illyrio, while trying to turn them into descendants of Targaryens or Blackfyres, will confuse the reader when it comes to understanding how and why they operate as they do, who their agents or pawns are, and what their next moves might be. When you see them as yellow street tomcats in the seat of power though, we gain much and more clarity.
I started out by differentiating team Valyrio versus Littlefinger by their basic crime, rather than whatever bloodline they come from. Team Valyrio is in the business of ‘fencing’ while Petyr Baelish is that of felony murder and racketeering. Varys and Illyrio prey on the felons and thieves to return what was stolen to the rightful owner for a fee. Knife throwing Littlefinger preys on innocence, robbing, murdering, bribing, extorting, lying and fucking his way up. In other words, Petyr Baelish is what team Valyrio preys on. And Petyr’s path never required a financial backer, only a promotor who opened doors for him, Lysa Arryn.
When we put the fencing-MO of Illyrio and Varys against the three dragon eggs that Illyrio gifted Daenerys Targaryen, as well as the lost three dragon eggs that Elissa Farman stole from Dragonstone near 250 years before, we come to a strong argument for those to be three and the same. It was not Illyrio’s job to find them, but Varys’s. It may even be argued that the Mad King contacted and hired Varys from Pentos to help him find the eggs that Elissa Farman stole, at a time Aerys II was searching for whichever dragon egg he could get his hands on in the hope to hatch them. Where the Mad King only knew part of Farman’s trail going cold after Pentos, Varys came across the same sources that would lead to the true story of the theft published in-world recently in Fire & Blood by Arch Maester Gyldain. It just took Varys and Illyrio longer than Aerys II lived.
When we jump in time to a few years before the start of the series we get a glimpse of the biggest (and still ongoing) heist on the Crown of Westeros: the lions are stealing a dynasty of a usurper via twincest, and the mockingbird embezzles the treasury (including the lions’ gold). The street cats let it unfold as they believe it is to their benefit. The Baratheon dynasty would not survive beyond a generation, neither in children as well as political backing. And the bankruptcy of the Westerosi treasury may be recovered by Illyrio, who gets a deal with the Iron Bank: you back a Targaryen dynasty, and I will personally cover the loan, if you also lift limitations and prohibitions against defending ourselves.
What they did not account for was Melisandre. She arrived on Dragonstone and converted Stannis’s wife Selyse into believing her visions and claims about Stannis completely. During his rare and dutiful yearly visit of Dragonstone, Stannis learned of Mel’s claim that he is Robert’s true heir. What sounded as folly initially, was revealed to be possible when Mel whispered what she knew of the parentage of Cersei’s children. Returning to King’s Landing, Stannis confides in Jon Arryn about the suspicion that Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella were fathered by Jaime. He knows the Hand to be an honest and moral man: Jon Arryn attempted to remove the corrupt Janos Slynt from the command of the Gold Cloaks. Stannis could also trust that Jon Arryn would not move against the Lannisters before he had found and seen the evidence with his own eyes. And finally, the truth would make Robert resent Stannis less, if it came from the lips of Jon Arryn instead. And so they begin to investigate towards the end of 297 AC.
Lysa Arryn freaks out when she learns that Jon intends to foster Sweetrobin to Dragonstone. Littlefinger had a bone to pick still with Jon Arryn trying to remove his man Janos Slynt, possibly fears exposure, and advizes Lysa to poison her husband with the tears of Lys. He already foresees who he can best take the fall for it. Expecting that Robert would appoint Stannis as Hand, the Lannisters are the likeliest to come under suspicion. Robert does not appoint Stannis as Hand, however. Instead he wants Ned Stark and will bring him and his household south to King’s Landing. Littlefinger believes it may be his only chance to get Catelyn to court, so he could have an affair with the woman he desires over Lysa. He expects Ned Stark to mistrust the Lannisters and the Kingslayer, and uses that by having Lysa write a letter to create a false murder trail to an ugly truth: the Lannisters killed Jon Arryn because he was about to inform Robert that none of Cersei’s children are his. Meanwhile, Stannis returns to Dragonstone to consult with Melisandre, starting to believe she sees true. She predicts the death of Robert and his Hand before the end of the year and advizes him to prepare for Cersei planting Joffrey on the throne.
Lysa flees to the Vale, while Littlefinger ‘volunteers’ to remain in King’s Landing and make sure that nobody can uncover the truth of them plotting to murder Jon Arryn. Petyr repositions the four other remainers who can tell tales: the pregnant kitchen maid, the gosipping potboy, the stable boy and Jon Arryn’s squire Ser Hugh. Some of them he threatens, bribes or disgraces. Unlike Lysa, Catelyn will not join the Hand as his wife in King’s Landing. Some freak accident befell her son Bran with the Lannisters at Winterfell. And then Catelyn arrives secretly at King’s Landing, before her husband and the King et all. Not knowing about the dagger yet, when Varys seeks Littlefinger’s help, Petyr hopes to have a moment alone with Catelyn and come to a mutual agreement that she wed Ned Stark out of duty and honor for her family name, but in truth loves him.
Cat does truly love Ned Stark though and did not come for Petyr. She came to discover who owned this unique dagger. Varys brought them together, because he knew Petyr lost the dagger to Robert. In this way, he prevents Aron Santagar from seeing it and identifying it as Robert’s. He too is curious whether Catelyn reciprocates Littlefinger’s feelings and how the lesser thief works himself out of the dagger-situation. With Varys in the room, Petyr cannot but admit it was his for a long time. And then he lies that he lost it to Tyrion, the one Lannister not arriving in King’s Landing anytime soon to defend himself against the accusation. With some luck, the Imp never returns. Neither Cersei or Tywin would grieve him.
Ned begins to investigate Jon Arryn’s murder and comes to trust Littlefinger in helping him with that. Of the four other remainers of Jon Arryn’s household in King’s Landing, only Ser Hugh who was knighted by Robert is willing to talk to Ned Stark in person, and he would be the most informed and credible witness of the four. The upjumped squire is too arrogant than is good for him, though, and believes himself untouchable by Robert’s knighting of him. Cersei gets wind of Ser Hugh wanting to talk to Ned Stark and arranges for him to start the lists against the Mountain.